What's Not Priced In

Hosted by Greg Canavan, Fat Tail Investment Research

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Feb 2024

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If it's in the news, it's in the price. By the time an idea hits the front page, the smart money has moved on. For savvy investors, the best story is the unreported story. It’s the ideas yet to be fully discounted by the markets that matter. Join Fat Tail Investment Research's Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka as they look beyond the headlines and investigate what the market hasn't yet priced in. That's where the best opportunities lie. For more investment insights, check out Fat Tail Investment Research at fattail.com.au.

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February 1, 2024Episode 3441 min

Stock Markets Hit Record Highs But Is a Correction Coming?

In his last appearance on What's Not Priced In, Greg Canavan discussed the Santa rally. Festivities have since dragged into the new year. At the start of December, Greg said this: ‘Everything is about probability. And I think the probability of the Fed or the Reserve Bank pulling off a soft landing when you’ve hiked rates so sharply is quite low. Betting on this rally to continue is a low-probability event.’ But the rally continued. Earlier this week, both the S&P 500 and our ASX 200 hit new all-time highs. What gives? And does Greg still think the rally continuing is a low-probability event? Yes. And this episode is all about why. Other topics discussed: - Why US and ASX stocks are rallying - Does the rally make sense? - Investor sentiment is greedy and bullish - Quality ASX stocks are trading at expensive forward multiples - Why Domino’s Pizza is a warning for investors - Struggling Aussie consumers belie ASX 200’s rally - Boring stocks versus hype stocks - Reading recommendations: Munger, Marks, Lynch

November 30, 2023Episode 3052 min

Bull Case for ASX Small Caps With Callum Newman

In this episode, Kiryll Prakapenka grills Fat Tail's small caps expert Callum Newman about Callum's optimistic outlook for Aussie small caps. Topics discussed: Why Greg Canavan called Callum the 'most positive man in finance' Why Callum thinks 'all the ingredients are there for the Aussie stock market to start firing on all cylinders' How macroeconomic conditions inform (or don't inform) Callum's thinking Latest retail sales data implies a large, annual real per capital decline in retail turnover of ~4.5%. What is the significance? How much of the soft macroeconomic outlook has the market already priced in? Strength of iron ore price and why Callum remains bullish Lessons from the lithium hype cycle Why Callum 'does not give a toss' about the slim equity risk premium Principles of sound small caps investing: focus on businesses growing faster than wider economy 'Astonishing value' in the small caps sector as market continues to misprice solid, profitable businesses Callum's watchlist: Mount Gibson Iron, GQG Partners, Maas Group, Resimac Is the generative AI hype warranted and is there any AI ideas on the ASX? Book recommendations Welcome to Fat Tail Investment Research, your source for fortifying and growing your wealth with insights from leading experts in finance and investing. Join us each week as we roll out fresh videos, tapping into the expertise of top-notch specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate, and personal finance, tailored specifically for our Australian investors. Explore illuminating interviews and in-depth explainer videos unraveling the trends shaping today's Aussie markets, the economy, and your overall portfolio. In these dynamic times, marked by economic shifts, record-low interest rates, growing debt, deficits, and unprecedented stimuli, navigating the evolving landscape is absolutely vital. The rules of investing are undergoing transformation, influencing the ASX, property markets, and various asset prices Down Under. The pressing question remains: Can markets prevail with a sustained ascent, or is a challenging reckoning unavoidable? Let Fat Tail Investment Research be your guide in supporting your portfolio against the uncertainties of the future, whether it's inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a property market shift, an economic boom, a downturn, or another global financial shake-up – our experts cover all conditions to support you. Tap into the collective wisdom of the money and markets experts featured on Fat Tail Investment Research by heading to fattail.com.au Subscribe to our YouTube channel @FatTailInvestmentResearch =============================== All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. Financial Services Guide ====================================== Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us IMPORTANT =============================== We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product...

November 23, 2023Episode 2948 min

Retail Stocks Ask: Where's the Inflation?

In the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka discuss: - RBA thinks Australia’s inflation is ‘increasingly homegrown and demand driven’ - But are ASX retail stocks saying something different? - What do recent updates from Accent Group, Lovisa, Kogan, Temple & Webster, and Nick Scali suggest? - What is going on with Origin Energy? - High cost of capital is forcing investors to get serious about valuations - Now is a good opportunity for investors who can ‘do their homework’ - ‘Investing is not about what you believe but what you believe that’s different to what the market believes’ - AI is not a substitute for great, creative investment research - Nvidia’s massive beat impressive, but largely priced in To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice. Financial Services Guide Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/ . If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here .

August 11, 2023Episode 1350 min

What’s Not Priced In EP12: The Momentum Trade Is Breaking Down

Disinflation versus deflation. Momentum versus fundamentals. Price versus earnings. Today's episode is all about contrasts. We discuss the diverging economic fortunes of the US and China, momentum trading pulling valuations away from fundamentals, and the stagnant Aussie market. Greg then explains why commodities still offer long-term value, exploring some unloved but enticing mining services stocks. And finally, when the market is dull, pick up a book!

July 21, 2023Episode 956 min

What's Not Priced In EP9: Look Out! Aussie Stocks AREN’T Cheap

In this week’s episode, I talk to Katana Asset Management Portfolio Manager Romano Sala Tenna. Katana has generated long term outperformance (resulting in significant compounding effects) and is currenting sitting on a 35% cash weighting. He explains why they are cautious on the market right now and what it would take to put that cash to work. As well as discussing the current state and outlook for markets both here and in the US, we discuss the process behind the fund’s long term outperformance, and touch on investor mindset and emotional awareness. Romano then gives us his take on ‘what’s not priced in’ right now. Finally, we finish on the concept of suffering…and why you should accept it and learn from it…

June 16, 2023Episode 448 min

What’s Not Priced In EP4: Extreme Greed, Aussie Mortgage Cliff, Neglected REITs

What’s Not Priced In EP4: Extreme Greed, Aussie Mortgage Cliff, Neglected REITs Fear & Greed Index hits extreme greed level despite narrow tech rally: correction looming? May Aussie unemployment down but 'woeful' labour productivity suggests businesses will shed workers to preserve margins. Markets are underpricing impact of Aussie mortgage cliff. And the neglected -- and contrarian -- potential of property trusts. To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch Greg Canavan, Editorial Director - Fat Tail Investment Research Kiryll Prakapenka, Analyst - Fat Tail Investment Research All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice. Financial Services Guide Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/ . If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here .

June 2, 2023Episode 21 hr 4 min

What's Not Priced In EP2: Commodities, China, and Coal Stocks

Bond market saying Aussie economy heading towards recession. The resolution of the debt ceiling impasse may lead to a liquidity crunch. Bob Farrell's seventh rule of investing and the tech rally. Are markets wrong on China? And are coal stocks good value or value traps? To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice. Financial Services Guide Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/ . If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here .

August 3, 2023Episode 1143 min

What's Not Priced In EP11: Aussie Stocks More Expensive Than You Think

There is no such thing as a free lunch. So don’t feast if you’re not prepared to foot the bill. With the market betting on a soft landing despite high interest rates winding their way through the economy, are markets expecting a free lunch? And are they prepared for when the bill comes due? In today’s episode, we discuss the outlook for interest rates, stretched stock valuations, the significance of the low equity risk premium, US tech stocks, and moves in the energy market. What’s not priced in? The cost of lunch. To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice. Financial Services Guide Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/ . If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here .

September 28, 2023Episode 2150 min

What's Not Priced in EP19: Major Stock Indexes Breaking Down

Only 40 stocks in the ASX 200 are in the green this month. The rest are either neutral or in the red. Some, like Star Entertainment, are hitting all-time lows in September. Others, like Lake Resources and Brainchip, are registering new 52-week lows. Markets are blaming rising bond yields. So where do things stand? Will interest rates remain ‘higher for longer’ and further depress stock valuations? Or will the economy buckle under the high-interest rate regime, forcing central banks to cut rates? And will that really be a boon for markets (hint, no, it won’t). Are we entering a new bear market? And is there still room for a skilled stock picker to snag bargains? Greg Canavan and I covered all this and more in the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In. We also discussed a more pressing issue: Broncos or Panthers; Pies or Lions? To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice. Financial Services Guide Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/ . If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here .

October 19, 2023Episode 2436 min

Uncovering Opportunities: Junior Miners Firesale! With Geologist James Cooper | What's Not Priced In

Ready to explore hidden gems in the world of junior miners? Join me in this episode as I interview James Cooper, Fat Tail Investment Research's resident geologist and seasoned commodities expert. James and I delve into the current firesale of junior miners in Australia, dissecting the opportunities and potential risks. Is now the opportune moment to make a move? Find out in this episode of What's Not Priced In. Topics covered in this episode: - The dynamics driving the firesale of junior miners. - James Cooper's expert insights on the current market conditions. - Evaluating whether it's a strategic time to invest in junior miners. - Unveiling potential hidden gems and risks in the junior mining sector. Don't miss this informative discussion that goes beyond the surface and seeks to uncover what’s not priced in to this miner firesale. To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice. Financial Services Guide Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/ . If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here .