What's Not Priced In

Hosted by Greg Canavan, Fat Tail Investment Research

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Feb 2024

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About the show

If it's in the news, it's in the price. By the time an idea hits the front page, the smart money has moved on. For savvy investors, the best story is the unreported story. It’s the ideas yet to be fully discounted by the markets that matter. Join Fat Tail Investment Research's Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka as they look beyond the headlines and investigate what the market hasn't yet priced in. That's where the best opportunities lie. For more investment insights, check out Fat Tail Investment Research at fattail.com.au.

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35 recent

February 9, 202444 min

Looking for Value on the ASX: Domino's, Cettire, Nick Scali, Commonwealth Bank, Carsales

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.Financial Services GuidePlease keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

February 1, 202441 min

Stock Markets Hit Record Highs But Is a Correction Coming?

In his last appearance on What's Not Priced In, Greg Canavan discussed the Santa rally. Festivities have since dragged into the new year. At the start of December, Greg said this: ‘Everything is about probability. And I think the probability of the Fed or the Reserve Bank pulling off a soft landing when you’ve hiked rates so sharply is quite low. Betting on this rally to continue is a low-probability event.’But the rally continued. Earlier this week, both the S&P 500 and our ASX 200 hit new all-time highs. What gives? And does Greg still think the rally continuing is a low-probability event? Yes. And this episode is all about why. Other topics discussed:- Why US and ASX stocks are rallying- Does the rally make sense?- Investor sentiment is greedy and bullish- Quality ASX stocks are trading at expensive forward multiples- Why Domino’s Pizza is a warning for investors- Struggling Aussie consumers belie ASX 200’s rally - Boring stocks versus hype stocks- Reading recommendations: Munger, Marks, Lynch

January 18, 202439 min

Does the Uranium Rally Have Legs | Talking Lithium, Uranium, Iron Ore with Geologist James Cooper

2024 could be a crucial year for commodities. So thinks Fat Tail's resident commodities guru James Cooper. And he outlined several reasons why. US election. China stimulus. Rate cuts. Falling US dollar. Rising India. Any of these events can ignite commodities in 2024.James joined Kiryll Prakapenka on this week’s episode of What’s Not Priced In to talk why he’s upbeat about commodities this year. And, yes, we didn’t waste the opportunity to ask James about uranium’s rally. And lithium’s collapse. And iron ore’s dip. Suffice to say, we covered a lot of ground. But the big topics were:Why James thinks 2024 could be a crucial year for commoditiesJames’s prescient call about lithium in November 2022 – lithium is a ‘one-hit wonder’Have lithium stocks bottomed or more pain to come?Green energy transition stocks – not just lithium – are struggling … but for how long?Does the uranium rally have legs?Commodities to watch with true scarcity factors To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.Financial Services GuidePlease keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

January 11, 202447 min

'Get Amongst It': 5 ASX Small Caps on Callum Newman's Radar in 2024

'Get amongst it.' Don’t get caught up in predictions. Nobody really knows what’s coming this year. Proceed knowing a lot of excellent risk versus reward stocks are out there still. The small cap sector, especially, has ‘heaps of opportunities’. So don’t despair you’ve missed anything. Get revved up. That was Callum Newman’s message on the first episode of What’s Not Priced In for 2024. And it was a cracker. Here’s what else Callum discussed with Kiryll Prakapenka:2023 market lessons and reflectionsOutlook for 2024Why Callum thinks the Fed may cut earlier than the market thinksWhy Aussie stocks can hit all-time highs this yearWhy Bitcoin and gold can attack all-time highsDogs of 2023 that can rebound in 2024Does the lithium sector look interesting now or still too risky?Impact of SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETFsHow investors should approach advent of AICallum’s five ASX small-caps to watch in 2024To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.Financial Services GuidePlease keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

December 15, 202358 min

Bull Case for Gold PLUS Brian Chu's 5 ASX Gold Stocks to Watch

November 30, 202352 min

Bull Case for ASX Small Caps With Callum Newman

In this episode, Kiryll Prakapenka grills Fat Tail's small caps expert Callum Newman about Callum's optimistic outlook for Aussie small caps. Topics discussed: Why Greg Canavan called Callum the 'most positive man in finance' Why Callum thinks 'all the ingredients are there for the Aussie stock market to start firing on all cylinders'How macroeconomic conditions inform (or don't inform) Callum's thinkingLatest retail sales data implies a large, annual real per capital decline in retail turnover of ~4.5%. What is the significance? How much of the soft macroeconomic outlook has the market already priced in? Strength of iron ore price and why Callum remains bullish Lessons from the lithium hype cycle Why Callum 'does not give a toss' about the slim equity risk premium Principles of sound small caps investing: focus on businesses growing faster than wider economy 'Astonishing value' in the small caps sector as market continues to misprice solid, profitable businesses Callum's watchlist: Mount Gibson Iron, GQG Partners, Maas Group, Resimac Is the generative AI hype warranted and is there any AI ideas on the ASX? Book recommendations Welcome to Fat Tail Investment Research, your source for fortifying and growing your wealth with insights from leading experts in finance and investing.Join us each week as we roll out fresh videos, tapping into the expertise of top-notch specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate, and personal finance, tailored specifically for our Australian investors.Explore illuminating interviews and in-depth explainer videos unraveling the trends shaping today's Aussie markets, the economy, and your overall portfolio.In these dynamic times, marked by economic shifts, record-low interest rates, growing debt, deficits, and unprecedented stimuli, navigating the evolving landscape is absolutely vital. The rules of investing are undergoing transformation, influencing the ASX, property markets, and various asset prices Down Under. The pressing question remains: Can markets prevail with a sustained ascent, or is a challenging reckoning unavoidable?Let Fat Tail Investment Research be your guide in supporting your portfolio against the uncertainties of the future, whether it's inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a property market shift, an economic boom, a downturn, or another global financial shake-up – our experts cover all conditions to support you.Tap into the collective wisdom of the money and markets experts featured on Fat Tail Investment Research by heading to fattail.com.auSubscribe to our YouTube channel @FatTailInvestmentResearch ===============================All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.Financial Services Guide======================================Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact usIMPORTANT===============================We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product...

November 23, 202348 min

Retail Stocks Ask: Where's the Inflation?

In the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka discuss:- RBA thinks Australia’s inflation is ‘increasingly homegrown and demand driven’- But are ASX retail stocks saying something different?- What do recent updates from Accent Group, Lovisa, Kogan, Temple & Webster, and Nick Scali suggest?- What is going on with Origin Energy?- High cost of capital is forcing investors to get serious about valuations- Now is a good opportunity for investors who can ‘do their homework’- ‘Investing is not about what you believe but what you believe that’s different to what the market believes’- AI is not a substitute for great, creative investment research- Nvidia’s massive beat impressive, but largely priced inTo learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.Financial Services GuidePlease keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

November 16, 202345 min

Aussie Banks: Buy or Sell?

In the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka discussed:Whether or not the US inflation data was significantAustralia’s historic wages growth and what it means for interest ratesValuations of the Big Four banksThey look cheap, but there’s more to itOutlook for cashed up Aussie gold minersUnappreciated insights from the RBA’s latest StatementHigh mortgage repayments don’t tell the whole storyAccumulated savings offsetting RBA’s rate hikes To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch. All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.Financial Services GuidePlease keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

November 9, 202341 min

Market Still Mispricing Risk of Recession

November 2, 202355 min

This is Not A Capitulation Low. After the Rally, More Pain Ahead

In this episode of What's Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka provide an in-depth examination of the 2023 market to date. They discuss the nuances that suggest this isn't the capitulation low that many are anticipating. Leveraging data-driven insights and expert interviews, the episode offers a thorough analysis for those looking to understand the current market dynamics and what lies ahead in 2023 and beyondWe encourage viewers to subscribe for regular market insights and analysis. For any questions or topics you'd like covered in future episodes, please leave them in the comments section.To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.Financial Services GuidePlease keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.