Trade Splaining

Hosted by Ardian Mollabeqiri & Robert Skidmore

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Oct 2026

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Trade, markets and geopolitics from Geneva - tariffs, chokepoints, energy shocks and supply chains, explained with the facts first and the jokes second. Trade Splaining is hosted by Ardian Mollabeqiri and Robert Skidmore, two Americans in Geneva who met at the International Trade Centre. Each episode pairs What Went Wrong, our run through the trade and market news worth your time, with an interview with someone who knows the subject from the inside. Guests have included Chip War author Chris Miller, economist Richard Baldwin, former Spanish foreign minister Arancha González, the FT's Peter Foster, the New York Times' Peter S. Goodman, IATA chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen, the World Bank's Jan Hoffmann and Bank Syz CIO Charles-Henry Monchau. The question we keep coming back to: what does this actually mean for companies, investors and anyone with a supply chain or a heating bill? Expect substance, the odd expat detour and a long-running Geneva kebab ranking. On air since 2020. Website and contact: tradesplaining.com

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October 29, 2026Episode 9627 min

Is AI Doping Global Trade? China's Chip Export Boom, Data Centers and Bond Yields

Washington switched off its biggest Russia sanctions law two days before it was due to start, with very little in the way of explanation. According to the New York Times, Trump waived the Graham sanctions on October 16, ahead of an October 18 start date. The law would have allowed tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas. In episode 95, Robert Skidmore and I (no guest this week, just the two of us) try to work out who is actually running the sanctions playbook, and what it means for any company trying to guess which way trade policy is heading. The Hormuz fuel shock keeps leaking into everything else. Diesel is expensive, Ryanair's Michael O'Leary is predicting the biggest airfare increases in history, and the AI boom is pushing up trade, power demand and possibly a bubble. At the same time, government borrowing costs in the US, France and Japan have hit multi-decade highs, and the IMF is openly worried about a disorderly jump in bond yields. Trade policy, energy, AI and debt all seem to be pulling on the same thread, and nobody is quite sure which way it unravels. What Went Wrong This Week Who's running the sanctions playbook? The New York Times reported on October 16 that Trump waived the Graham sanctions two days before they were due to take effect on October 18. The waiver follows a Treasury license that lets Russia sell diesel until April, as fuel prices bite. Our read: it's a second- and third-order effect of Hormuz, and a sort of Liberation Day in reverse - announce the lifting, promise a flood of diesel, then discover Russia doesn't have the capacity to send it. The bigger problem is for companies. For a while the direction of travel was clear (diversify your supply chains). The more often policy flips, the harder it is to plan. Fuel, fares and Ryanair. Ryanair's Michael O'Leary expects European fares to rise by as much as 20% over the next 12 months - "the biggest increases in airfares, I would say, in history" - and says Ryanair is about 85% unhedged for next year, with most rivals in a similar spot. Diesel and jet fuel come out of the same refineries, which is the warning we heard earlier this year from Marie Owens Thomsen of IATA. Also: whether airfares are actually too low, and the future of John Denver's "Leaving on a Jet Plane". AI, trade and the bubble question. The Financial Times reported that China's chip exports jumped 136% in value but only 1% in volume, which is another way of saying mostly price. Add a wobble in AI credit (CoreWeave shares fell), a record chip quarter in the same week, and EU power demand growing for a 13th straight month in September (per Ember) after years of decline, with data center capacity forecast to double. Our read: AI investment is quietly doping trade and investment flows, and yes, it's a bubble. The real question is what the shockwaves look like when it pops, and who's left picking up the pieces. Walls going up on both sides. The EU is picking up pace on measures to protect its single market - hybrids first, now chemicals and machinery - with Germany finally coming around (a thread from episode 93), and factories are closing even in Switzerland. Trade still finds a way, though. China keeps exporting, and now exports watches too: lower cost, surprisingly good quality, same playbook as EVs. Meanwhile journalists seem to be racing to publish either "China is deindustrializing everyone" or "China is collapsing". We're not picking a winner. Bond yields and the confidence game. Borrowing costs in the US, France and Japan have hit multi-decade highs in recent weeks, and the IMF's latest Global Financial Stability Report flags a disorderly spike in government bond yields as a major risk. The 10-year Treasury touched a decade-long high before easing, while UK gilts and French bonds are in the crosshairs. Why does half a percent matter? Because of the billions it takes away from other priorities when growth is slow. It's the same thread as episode 93, when Charles-Henry Monchau called the bond market the ultimate judge of US policy. Government debt is a confidence game, which makes it a lot like a luxury watch. Our tip, as ever, is to buy the dip (don't ask which one). This is not investment advice. This Week in Local News Switzerland's trade chief, SECO head Helene Budliger Artieda, clarified in a Bloomberg interview that the Rolex and gold bar presented to Trump were a gift to the American people, not to Trump. FIFA is reportedly scrapping its Peace Prize a year after Trump won the inaugural award. Flights turned around over an odor on a St. Louis to Philadelphia route, and, per Reddit, over a Bluetooth device with a very unhelpful name. The case for the $60 Casio over a luxury watch, including whether the Casio can play Snake. Plus: why 95 is a surprisingly good number for a trade podcast (americium, element number 95, created in 1944 at the University of Chicago's Metallurgical Laboratory as part of the Manhattan Project and still found in most household smoke detectors; the European Space Agency's search for americium-241 as a substitute for scarce plutonium-238 in deep-space probes; the WTO replacing GATT in 1995; Toy Story, Amazon and eBay; and I-95, with ports including Savannah, Baltimore and a personal favorite, Newark). Also, listener feedback: no, we do not use Auto-Tune. This episode is brought to you by Active Languages, a Geneva-based language training company that has been helping professionals, expats and international families succeed in Switzerland for nearly 30 years, whether you need French or German for work, more confidence in everyday life, or preparation for the FIDE exam required for permit renewals or Swiss citizenship. Trade Splaining listeners get a complimentary language level assessment and initial consultation: email jhasi@alswiss.ch and mention Trade Splaining, or learn more at activelanguages.com. 🎧 Listen to episode 95 on your favorite podcast app: [link]. If you like it, please subscribe and follow us.

October 15, 2026Episode 9539 min

Globalization Is Back (Sort Of): DHL’s Data, Forced-Labor Tariffs and Rabobank’s Michael Every

Globalization is apparently back, according to DHL, a company with absolutely no stake in the matter. Its latest globalization tracker has globalization at a record high in 2025 and goods trade growing in the first half of 2026 at its fastest pace in 15 years (Covid rebound aside). Meanwhile, US-China trade is down to 1.6% of world goods trade, from a peak of 3.5% a decade ago. Trade isn’t disappearing, it’s rerouting. In episode 94, Robert Skidmore and I look at what that means, then sit down with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, to ask what happens when tariffs, sanctions, chip bans and subsidies stop being separate policies and start being one toolkit he calls economic statecraft. That fits uncomfortably well with Michael’s argument. The WTO-era system, he says, only works if everyone is on the same geopolitical page, and that page is gone. What replaces it is a world where governments need an answer to a deceptively simple question - what is GDP for? - and where China’s neo-mercantilist model leaves everyone else choosing whether to integrate with it or against it. Elsewhere in the episode: how forced-labor tariffs are speeding up a global supply-chain crackdown, and why America’s job machine looks better in the headline numbers than in workers’ lives. What Went Wrong This Month Globalization is (apparently) back. DHL’s globalization tracker has globalization at a record in 2025, goods trade in the first half of 2026 growing at its fastest pace in 15 years (Covid rebound aside), and forecasts upgraded for 2026-29. Yet only 1.6% of world goods trade was between the US and China in January-May 2026, down from 3.5% at the peak. Our read: it’s the same trade with a new name, and a lot like the “N minus one” world Richard Baldwin has been describing. Trump, accidental forced-labor crusader. The Wall Street Journal argues that using forced labor as a justification for tariffs is accelerating a global crackdown on forced labor in supply chains, even if the tariffs themselves get overturned. After the Supreme Court struck down the global tariffs in February, Washington turned to Section 301 against 60 economies, and partners including Canada, India, Colombia, Mexico and Argentina are tightening their own rules to take the excuse away. The US is well ahead on enforcement (20,000 shipments denied entry under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act as of August 2026, versus two blocked by Canada so far, and an EU ban that doesn’t bite until December 2027). The business takeaway: forced-labor compliance is becoming a market-access requirement, not a CSR line item, and customs officers are about to be asked to work out whether a shirt was made with forced labor, which, as they’d like us to know, is not their job. America’s job machine is underwhelming. Bloomberg’s Jonathan Levin (October 5) argues the US labor market is weaker than the headline numbers suggest: job growth is concentrated in lower-paying occupations, hiring is sluggish even though layoffs remain at historic lows, and it’s harder for workers to move into better-paid roles. That helps explain why consumers feel gloomy despite low unemployment. We wonder where the good jobs are going - AI, offshoring, or both. Our guest: Michael Every Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank, where he looks across assets, disciplines and geographies for the bank’s economics and markets division in Singapore. He has more than two decades of experience as an economist and strategist. Before Rabobank, he was director at Silk Roads Associates in Bangkok, senior economist and fixed income strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in London and Sydney, and an economist at Dun & Bradstreet in London. He holds a master’s degree in economics with distinction from University College London and speaks a smattering of languages, including Thai. In our conversation, we cover: How someone who came to economics from politics and history ended up as a global strategist, plus his “pretty flawless track record” of moving to a country just before a crisis, starting with Southeast Asia in 1997. Economic statecraft: why tariffs, sanctions and chip bans should be read as one toolkit, how we went from an era that could “pretend that history had ended” and run on boring technocratic policy to “the 19th century, but with mobile phones,” and the question he thinks every government should answer: what is GDP for? Is the WTO still relevant? (Rob insisted. The cafeteria, at least, will live on.) Why a WTO-style system only works when everyone is on the same geopolitical page, and why that means more cooperation and less of it at the same time. Neo-mercantilism: why he says China is deindustrializing almost everyone, not just the West, why everyone else has to integrate with it or against it, and why he doesn’t think the model is sustainable in the long run. (Rob also shreds his master’s degree.) The Rabobank view of food and agriculture: a deeply integrated food system that is now under question, with China openly trying to minimize food imports. Expat corner: what living abroad taught him about the UK (no Marmite, we checked). Which is the bigger bubble, Dutch tulips or data centers? (You can’t eat tulips.) And, because this is Geneva, should we buy the dip on kebab meat? Rabobank clients can find Michael’s research on Rabobank Knowledge. Everyone else can find him on LinkedIn and on X at @themichaelevery. Plus: why 94 is a surprisingly good number for a trade podcast (plutonium, Chapter 94 of the Harmonized System covering furniture and prefabricated buildings, the Section 232 furniture tariffs turning one, and 1994’s trade milestones: NAFTA, the Marrakesh Agreement and the Channel Tunnel), Rob’s grievances about blocked airplane toilets and the difference between Mayday and Pan-Pan, a “Get Off My Lawn” segment on Gen Z, GameStop and millennials, bedbugs grounding a plane in Rome, and Skyguide’s job cuts. This episode is brought to you by Active Languages, a Geneva-based language training company that has been helping professionals, expats and international families succeed in Switzerland for nearly 30 years. Trade Splaining listeners get a complimentary language level assessment and initial consultation: email [confirm address with Active Languages] and mention Trade Splaining, or learn more at activelanguages.com. 🎧 Listen to episode 94 on your favorite podcast app or find us at www.tradesplaining.com. If you like it, please subscribe and follow us.

September 30, 2026Episode 9447 min

The Quiet Tariff Retreat, Germany's China Rethink and Banque Syz CIO on Geopolitics, Markets and "Slowbalization"

The headlines say the tariff war is still raging. According to Richard Baldwin, Washington has spent the past year quietly backing away from it, one exemption and carve-out at a time. In episode 93, Robert Skidmore and I look at what that retreat means for a global trading system that increasingly seems to be organising itself around the US rather than through it. Then we sit down with Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer at Bank Syz, to ask how investors should think about geopolitics, industrial policy and capital flows in what he calls the era of "slowbalization." Trade policy, energy security and investment strategy are no longer separate conversations. Canada and the EU are building a deeper partnership, Germany is weighing a tougher economic-security approach to China, and an energy squeeze is heading into winter that looks a lot like 2022. Meanwhile, our guest points out that global equities were hitting record highs despite all the scary headlines. The awkward question for anyone with a portfolio, a supply chain or a heating bill is how those pieces fit together. What Went Wrong This Week The quiet tariff retreat. Baldwin argues the effective US tariff rate rose from about 2% to a peak of around 11% in October 2025, then fell to roughly 6.7% by May 2026, largely through exemptions and lower applied rates rather than public reversals. His read: the rest of the world is adapting around the US in what he calls an "N minus one" trading system. Canada and the EU move closer. A deeper strategic partnership, Mark Carney's call for a closer alliance of like-minded democracies, CETA's provisional application, and why supply chains and critical minerals are part of the story. Germany's China rethink. Bloomberg reports Berlin is preparing a tougher economic-security approach: tariffs on certain Chinese plug-in hybrids, investment screening, export controls, EU procurement preferences, local content requirements, and possibly joint-venture rules for Chinese firms in Europe. We look at "China shock 2.0," the rare earths choke point, and the price gap between a Renault EV and a BYD or Xpeng. The energy squeeze. Hormuz, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining, record US diesel prices and the on-again, off-again talk of a US export ban, record-low EU gas storage for this time of year, and a fertilizer squeeze that could outlast the Hormuz closure itself (Peter Goodman flagged that one). The lesson: depending on US energy is now a risk you have to hedge. Our guest: Charles-Henry Monchau Charles-Henry Monchau is Chief Investment Officer and ExCo member at Bank Syz. Before that, he was CIO of Dubai Investments and head of asset allocation for EMEA at Deutsche Bank, with senior roles across Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. He holds an executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in finance from HEC, is a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charterholder, and is a top voice on LinkedIn with more than 280,000 followers. In our conversation, we cover: What a CIO actually does (the answer involves an orchestra conductor and the auto industry). Why contrarian investing is easy to explain and very hard to do: the moment to take some profits is when everything looks perfect, and the hardest moment to buy risk is when it feels like the end of the world. From globalisation to "slowbalization": US-China geo-economics, sovereignty, why chips are now made at home rather than by the lowest-cost producer, and the three strategic priorities he sees: AI and robotics, defence, and electric power. Why global equities keep hitting all-time highs despite the headlines, from a record DAX with only two tech stocks to a rally broadening across Europe and emerging markets, and why he calls it "the most hated global equity bull market." Why geopolitics and geoeconomics are here to stay, as both an opportunity and a risk for investors. Why he sees the bond market as the ultimate judge of US policy, from Liberation Day to the "TACO" trade. Expat corner: what living abroad taught him about Switzerland, including direct democracy, a constitutional debt brake and a strong franc that pushes companies up the value chain. On a scale of zero to SpaceX, how worried should we be about a bubble? His answer: SpaceX is like an option. You can find Syz's investment insights on the Syz Group website and LinkedIn page. Plus: why 93 is a surprisingly good number for a trade podcast (neptunium, the end of the GATT Uruguay Round on 15 December 1993, chapter 93 of the Harmonized System, and CERN putting the World Wide Web software into the public domain), Gen Z's "Get Off My Lawn" segment, hobby-maxing as a recession indicator, AI-generated sloths on Vespas, and the return of the river otter to Geneva. This episode is brought to you by Active Languages, a Geneva-based language training company that has been helping professionals, expats and international families succeed in Switzerland for nearly 30 years. Trade Splaining listeners get a complimentary language level assessment and initial consultation: email jhasi@alswiss.com and mention Trade Splaining, or learn more at activelanguages.com. 🎧 Listen to episode 93 on your favorite podcast app: [link]. If you like it, please subscribe and follow us.

September 3, 2026Episode 9339 min

Swiss Made, Chokepoints and a Digital Pandemic ft. ITU's Tomas Lamanauskas

What actually happens when the internet stops working? Not the brief flicker-of-wifi kind, but a real digital pandemic - solar storms, satellite collisions, and heat waves taking out the servers holding your bank account, your health records and your group chats hostage. That's the world ITU Deputy Secretary-General Tomas Lamanauskas has been mapping in the International Telecommunication Union's new Digital Risk Report, and it turns out digital resilience is now squarely a trade and infrastructure story, not just an IT problem. Ardian and Rob talk to Lamanauskas about why the ITU is borrowing pandemic language to describe outages, the mechanics of Kessler Syndrome (yes, the Gravity/Armageddon scenario), why submarine cables need their own 42-expert international advisory board, and why "analog skills" - like knowing how to function without WhatsApp for an afternoon - are suddenly a policy conversation. Before the interview, Ardian and Rob run through this month's "What Went Wrong": why the FT thinks Swiss manufacturing faces a harder question than tariffs alone - namely, what "Swiss made" actually means once companies like Bernina start moving production to Thailand while keeping the engineering at home. They also cover Switzerland's newly upgraded free trade agreement with China, which pushes Swiss duty-free access to the Chinese market from roughly 50% to 99.8%, and the US-Canada trade collapse that the Wall Street Journal has dubbed "the stupidest trade war ever" - 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and cars, retaliatory tariffs starting September 8th, and China's opportunistic pitch to Ottawa as the more predictable trading partner. Plus: listener feedback on sustainable aviation fuel and greenwashing, Silicon Valley's new favorite recession indicator (limited-edition AI-branded Tudor watches), and a bridge in France that gives oversized vehicles a very unwanted haircut. Listen to episode 92 of Trade Splaining wherever you get your podcasts, and let us know what you think at tradesplaining@gmail.com .

August 13, 2026Episode 9233 min

Tariff Bingo: Trump vs the EU, China's Economic Fortress, and Europe's Rare Earth Problem

Everyone weaponized trade policy at once this month, and the targets weren't always the obvious ones. Trump's latest tariff threats landed on the EU in retaliation for European fines on tech firms, which makes this a regulatory fight dressed up as a trade fight - and means every EU competition decision is now a potential tariff-triggering event. Add a threatened 100% tariff on generic drugs, and the low-cost end of the US supply chain starts looking fragile. Meanwhile the bill from the Iran war is arriving late but arriving. Strategic reserves are thinning, diesel and jet fuel are tight, and the Houthis are now vowing a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, which puts the other oil export route in play alongside Hormuz. The New York Times Peter S. Goodman takes the diesel crisis all the way down to Bangladeshi smallholder farmers who need it to pump water, which is a useful corrective to the European trucking angle. Heat is doing macro damage too: Europe's grids were built for a different climate, and retrofitting Switzerland alone for cooling carries a price tag in the hundreds of billions of francs. Then there's China, which is quietly running the export control playbook it spent five years complaining about. Beijing is tightening controls on outbound investment by companies and citizens, Huawei has engineered its way around US export controls with chip stacking and other workarounds, and the emerging assessment is that China came through the trade war in better shape than most of us assumed. Ardian and Rob get into whether export controls actually do anything beyond forcing innovation, whether the "Chinese model is collapsing" story is analysis or politics, and what it means for an export machine if the rest of the world eventually can't afford to buy. Which leads to Europe. The EU is talking tougher on Chinese overcapacity and subsidies, but China can retaliate faster through rare earths and critical inputs. Brussels keeps signing rules-based agreements - Mercosur, Switzerland, the post-Brexit deal - covering tariffs, services, labour and environmental standards, digital rules and investment protection, while US deals go transactional and bilateral. The awkward part: Europe hasn't actually used any of those agreements against subsidized Chinese manufacturing yet. Plus: TS correspondent Michelle returns from six months inside the Walmart employees subreddit with a report on drone cages in the parking lot, stolen Zebra scanners, and Walmart's two podcasts. There's a global whey protein shortage, a Geneva perch bumper crop, a man who allegedly stole a Sea-Doo in Canada and livestreamed his illegal border crossing, and an Air Canada pilot who spent 17 years in the cockpit without a licence. 🎧 Listen at www.tradesplaining.com or wherever you get your podcasts

July 2, 2026Episode 9137 min

Hormuz Fallout, China as the New Swing Energy Importer and Ports

In Episode 90 of Trade Splaining, Ardian Mollabeqiri and Robert Skidmore are back to unpack how geopolitics, energy markets and global shipping disruptions are finding their way into the everyday economy — from oil prices and port congestion to pain au chocolat, ice cream cones and Aperol Spritzes. We start with the Strait of Hormuz, where fears of an oil price shock ran into a more complicated reality. China’s role as a “swing importer,” existing oil supply gluts, demand destruction, rerouting and refinery adaptation all helped explain why markets did not quite melt down — even as the risks around energy security and logistics remain very real. Then we follow the supply chain into breakfast and dessert. Why is a pain au chocolat more expensive? Why can an ice cream cone cost $8? The answer is not one input but many — wheat, butter, cocoa, diesel, refrigeration, labour, packaging and energy all moving in uncomfortable directions at once. Globalization, it turns out, is now coming for your snack budget. This episode also features a conversation with Jan Hoffmann, Global Lead for Maritime Transport and Ports at the World Bank, on the latest Container Port Performance Index. Jan explains what the CPPI actually measures, why port rankings can get political, how rerouting through the Red Sea, Hormuz and beyond affects port performance, and why the global shipping map is changing in ways that are more about friend-shoring than near-shoring. We also get into MSC vs Maersk, port ownership, shipping line-linked terminal operators, the geopolitics of port concessions, and — naturally — Jan’s ongoing haircut index and his Washington, DC kebab recommendation. Plus: Gen Z’s anti-AI nostalgia, the World Cup heat dome, Bosnia’s unofficial theme song, Geneva’s Aperol Spritz problem, and why 320 kilos of meth is probably over the “personal use” threshold. Listen now for a trade, shipping and geopolitics episode that connects the Strait of Hormuz, China’s energy leverage, port performance, global inflation and your next overpriced ice cream cone.

June 4, 2026Episode 9038 min

Trade Finds a Way, But Your Parcel Might Not: Global Express Association's Carlos Grau on Customs, De Minimis & Global Delivery

Episode 89 - Trade Finds a Way, But Your Parcel Might Not: Global Express Association's Carlos Grau on Customs, De Minimis & Global Delivery Trade has a funny way of showing up in your life. Sometimes it is tariffs, oil prices and semiconductor supply chains. Other times, it is your package sitting at the border while someone tries to decide whether “gift” and “zero value” is a legally persuasive customs strategy. In this episode of Trade Splaining, Rob and Ardian look at why global trade is still proving surprisingly resilient - even as geopolitics, shipping disruptions and rising trade costs keep trying to ruin the party. Goods trade grew strongly in early 2026, helped in part by US demand for AI-related products like servers, semiconductors and data center equipment. But that momentum is running straight into familiar risks: the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices, shipping uncertainty and the growing reality that trade may still find a way, but it might cost more and arrive later. The episode also looks at Europe’s attempt to become a more serious geopolitical actor in supply chains, with the EU preparing stronger emergency powers over semiconductor production and critical chip orders. Rob and Ardian also revisit the eternal zombie file of Brexit, asking whether “Bre-entry” - Britain eventually rejoining or moving closer to the EU - is still political fantasy, strategic inevitability, or simply the trade policy sequel nobody asked for but everyone keeps watching. The main interview features Carlos Grau Tanner, Director General of the Global Express Association, the Geneva-based association representing DHL, FedEx and UPS on global policy issues including trade, customs, aviation, air transport, security and postal regulation. Carlos explains how express delivery works behind the scenes, why customs rules matter more than most people realize, and how the explosion in low-value e-commerce parcels is putting real pressure on border agencies. As more countries move away from de minimis thresholds, governments may collect more duties and taxes - but they also risk making customs procedures far more complex than they need to be. The conversation gets into why a $20 parcel should not necessarily be treated like a container full of high-value goods, how simplified customs regimes could reduce friction, and why better data from platforms, payment systems and logistics operators could help customs authorities target risk without slowing everything down. Carlos also explains why trade fragmentation is changing the global logistics map. As companies rethink where they produce, sell and distribute, express carriers need flexible air traffic rights and modern cargo rules that allow them to adapt to shifting trade lanes. In other words: if trade patterns are changing, the rules governing cargo aircraft need to change with them. Plus: customs suspicion around gifts, why your grandmother’s sweater might need a declared value, whether kebab can be shipped internationally, Geneva’s kebab data set, Swiss cows facing cross-border restrictions, and the sad passing of Lazare, the local dog who almost made it to the world record books. Listen now for a conversation on global trade, customs, e-commerce, logistics, supply chains and why the boring stuff at the border is becoming some of the most important stuff in the world economy.

May 21, 2026Episode 8934 min

Hormuz Oil Shock, Airfares and the Future of Flying - IATA’s Chief Economist on the New Energy Crisis

Episode 88: Hormuz Oil Shock, Airfares and the Future of Flying - IATA’s Chief Economist on the New Energy Crisis Oil shocks used to feel like something that happened in markets, headlines and awkward economist panels. Not anymore. In this episode of Trade Splaining, we look at how the latest energy shock is moving from oil markets into the parts of the economy people actually feel - airfares, airline schedules, fuel tanks, EV demand, government energy policy and, potentially, your next holiday. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is no longer just a geopolitics story. It is becoming a consumer story, a transport story and a very expensive reminder that energy security still runs through some very narrow places. This week, Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), joins the show to explain why aviation is facing what she calls a double energy crisis: an oil crisis and a refining crisis. Airlines do not fly on crude oil - they fly on jet fuel. And when jet fuel prices rise sharply, airlines face immediate pressure on costs, routes, pricing and survival. Marie breaks down why sustainable aviation fuel is not as simple as “just make greener jet fuel,” why refineries are far more interconnected than most people realise, and why the future of flying depends on much bigger questions around energy systems, investment, infrastructure and political timelines. In other words: aviation may be only a small slice of refined fuel output, but when the system starts creaking, everyone notices. Also in this episode: Trump and Xi apparently make trade nice again - details pending, napkins possibly missing - Europe’s airlines brace for higher costs, EVs get a crisis-driven boost, Swatch and Audemars Piguet release expensive pendant-shaped plastic, Switzerland accidentally gets a king, and Italy battles the real menace of our time: marauding peacocks. In this episode: How the Hormuz crisis is feeding into fuel prices, airline costs and travel disruption Why jet fuel is not the same thing as crude oil - and why that matters How higher fuel prices could affect airfares, routes and airline profitability Why Europe may be especially exposed to aviation fuel shocks Marie Owens Thomsen on IATA, sustainability and the future of air transport Why sustainable aviation fuel requires a whole energy-system rethink How refinery economics shape the future of aviation Whether this crisis could accelerate renewable energy and alternative fuels The strange incentives now facing governments, airlines and consumers Switzerland’s self-declared king and Italy’s peacock problem Featured guest Marie Owens Thomsen is Chief Economist at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), where she is also responsible for environmental and sustainability activities and serves on IATA’s Management Committee. She previously worked at Lombard Odier as Head of Global Trends and Sustainability and has held senior roles across investment banking, private banking and international economics. Keywords Trade Splaining, IATA, Marie Owens Thomsen, aviation, airfares, jet fuel, oil shock, Strait of Hormuz, energy crisis, sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, airline industry, global trade, energy security, transport, geopolitics, supply chains, renewable energy, refining crisis, airlines, EV demand, global economy.

April 30, 2026Episode 8831 min

USMCA on the Brink? Trade Fragmentation, Supply Chain Chaos & the Rise of “Just in Case”

Episode 87 - USMCA Uncertainty, Trade Fragmentation & the Future of Supply Chains Global trade is shifting - and not everyone agrees on where it’s heading. In this episode, we break down the growing uncertainty around USMCA, the rise of trade fragmentation, and what it means when the system moves away from efficiency toward resilience. We also sit down with Will Petty, Global Head of Product Development at A.P. Moller - Maersk Trade & Customs Consulting, to understand how companies are actually responding on the ground - from navigating tariffs to rethinking supply chains and compliance. Key topics include: Is USMCA at risk - and what happens if it unravels Why the US is pushing bilateral over regional trade deals The shift from “just in time” to “just in case” supply chains Commodity fragmentation - from copper pricing gaps to stockpiling Why resilience comes with real economic costs (inflation, inefficiency, volatility) How companies are adapting to tariff complexity and geopolitical disruption The growing importance of supply chain data, traceability, and compliance Will supply chains get shorter - or just more complicated? With Will Petty (Maersk), we discuss: How businesses are reacting to constant disruption The real-world impact of tariffs and shifting trade flows Why understanding your supply chain is now a competitive advantage The risk - and opportunity - of shrinking supply chains Plus: Expat insights Geneva kebab rankings And the unexpected return of… mall culture

April 7, 2026Episode 8728 min

Is the WTO Still Relevant? MC14, Trade Chaos & a Surprisingly Resilient System | Peter Foster (FT)

Episode 86 – Is the WTO Still Relevant? MC14, Trade Chaos & a Surprisingly Resilient System | Peter Foster (FT) 🎧 Listen: t.ly/K4Jnc Has the global trading system fundamentally broken — or is it proving more resilient than expected? In Episode 86 of Trade Splaining, we sit down with Peter Foster, World Trade Editor at the Financial Times, to unpack the real outcomes of WTO Ministerial Conference 14 (MC14) and what they reveal about the future of global trade. 🌍 What we cover: MC14: What actually happened The conference ended with limited concrete outcomes, highlighting deep divisions — particularly around the e-commerce moratorium and broader reform efforts. Is the WTO still relevant? We explore whether the WTO is adapting to a new global reality or slowly drifting toward irrelevance in a world dominated by great power politics. Rise of regional and plurilateral deals As consensus becomes harder, countries are increasingly turning to smaller coalitions and regional agreements to move forward. Trade policy chaos From “napkin deals” to unpredictable negotiations, the current trade environment is becoming harder for governments and businesses to navigate. The big paradox: trade resilience Despite rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions, global trade flows have remained surprisingly stable — raising questions about how much has really changed. 🔑 Key takeaway: Even in a more fragmented and politically charged world, global trade continues to function — not because the system is strong, but because the incentives to keep it going are still stronger. ⏱️ Timestamps 00:00 – Intro & episode 86 (Radon edition) 03:20 – Interview with Peter Foster 05:00 – MC14 recap 10:00 – WTO relevance debate 16:00 – Trade resilience vs tariffs 20:00 – Future of global trade 24:00 – Local news (Swiss cheese diplomacy 🧀) 📢 Follow & support Twitter/X: @TradeSplaining Instagram: @TradeSplaining Email: tradesplaining@gmail.com