Real Perspectives Podcast

Hosted by The Registry/Mighty Dot Media

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222

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Oct 2026

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Exploring commercial real estate topics across the West Coast of the US, and sometimes the world!

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October 12, 202657 min

Multifamily’s Great Divide: Texas Oversupply vs. the Bay Area AI Boom

On this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, co-hosts Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) and Tom Fischer (Principal and Director of Capital Markets at JB Matheson) look at first-half 2026 multifamily data. They start with the national picture, then rank the markets The Registry covers from weakest to strongest: Texas, Southern California, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern California. Nationally, first-half absorption was the second strongest on record, and new supply has fallen back to pre-COVID levels. Banks and debt funds are lending again, and transaction volume is up about 11% year over year. Cap rates are also rising. Renewals are getting 3–4% increases, while new leases are running 3–4% negative once concessions are counted. The picture changes a lot by market. Texas is still working through record deliveries. Southern California is mostly flat, with Orange County the exception. Seattle has strong demand but still faces supply, and Bellevue led the region in rent growth. The San Francisco Bay Area is now the top multifamily market in the country, with concessions largely gone and the AI-driven demand spreading into Marin, Sonoma, and the East Bay. To close, Vlad and Tom go through U-Haul’s midyear migration data by generation. It shows who is moving to New York and the Bay Area, and who is heading for Florida and the Carolinas. In this episode: (01:41) Four takeaways from Newmark’s national Q2 multifamily report: absorption, shrinking supply, the return of bank lending, and rising transaction volume (05:12) A split rent market: renewals are up, new leases are down, and concessions are still common in the Sunbelt (08:23) The lending environment, credit spreads, and why higher rates are now showing up in cap rates (11:36) Texas: Dallas–Fort Worth turns first, Austin reaches an inflection point, and Houston lags (14:51) Why 94–95% occupancy is the point where pricing power moves back to landlords (18:43) Why deliveries as a share of existing inventory tell you more than raw unit counts (19:17) Southern California: LA, Orange County, and San Diego, plus insurance costs and LA’s Measure ULA (25:19) Institutional capital returns, and why buyers are betting on replacement cost (27:18) Seattle, Bellevue, and Tacoma: AI leasing, return-to-office mandates, and supply falling 53% (34:50) Inside JB Matheson’s sale of a 134-unit Issaquah property for about $411K per unit (38:30) Northern California: double-digit rent growth in San Francisco, disappearing concessions, and lease trade-outs (42:00) AI firms paying employees to live near the office, and what it means for rents (48:07) U-Haul’s 2026 migration trends by generation: Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and Boomers About the hosts: Vladimir Bosanac is co-founder and publisher of The Registry, which covers commercial real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area, Southern California, the Pacific Northwest, and Texas. Tom Fischer is Principal and Director of Capital Markets at JB Matheson in San Mateo, California. The firm invests in multifamily properties across the Mountain West and Pacific markets. Connect with Tom on LinkedIn

October 5, 202652 min

Building on Values: Chrissie Davis on Launching Incorage and Leading as a Woman in Construction

In this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder and publisher of The Registry, and Laura Kreuger, founder and executive director of Asset Locale, talk with Chrissie Davis, president of Incorage General Contractors. Davis spent 14 years at her previous firm. She started as an assistant project manager and became president, and she helped grow the company into a $100 million-a-year business on the Bay Area's top 25 general contractors list. In early 2024, several things pushed her to go out on her own: a list of 50 executives that included only two women, a succession plan she didn't fit into, and a line from Lean In . She talks about the emotional swings of being a founder, botched payrolls included, and how she hires for a startup. The company name is an acronym for its values: Integrity, Collaboration, Regularly Achieving Goals Effectively. Top candidates write her a letter about what those values mean in their own lives. The conversation also covers: Mentorship: why she makes time to support women in construction, and an unexpected challenge she ran into early in her career. Affordable housing: the difference between "capital-A" and "lowercase-a" affordable housing, including hotel conversions, co-ops and densifying existing properties. Current projects: 90 affordable units in the North Bay and five modular tiny homes for young people leaving foster care. Tariffs: how her team kept tariff costs to about $20,000 on a $26 million project. Labor: how AI data centers are pulling subcontractors toward the top of a K-shaped economy. Outlook: what she expects for multifamily, for-sale housing and affordable housing over the next 6 to 12 months.

September 25, 202641 min

From Warehouses to Robots: The Advanced Manufacturing Boom, with Newmark's Steve Kapp

The Bay Area was written off as a place to make things. Now advanced manufacturers are taking most of the newest industrial space in the East Bay. On this episode of Real Perspectives, host Vladimir Bosanac (The Registry) and co-host Byron Renfro (Orchard Commercial) talk with Steve Kapp, Executive Managing Director in Newmark's San Francisco and East Bay Industrial group. They cover what's driving the demand, what these tenants need from a building, and why power has become the biggest constraint. In this episode: What "advanced manufacturing" means: Cities push back on warehouses, so developers redesigned their projects to win approvals. Kapp estimates about 80% of new builds from 2024 to 2026 are going to advanced manufacturers, not warehouse users. Manufacturing comes back: From NUMMI to Tesla, and how reshoring policy, the talent pool and the local supply chain are bringing production back to the region. The sectors behind the demand: EVs and autonomous vehicles, robotics, materials science, cleantech, biomanufacturing, data center servers, eVTOLs and energy storage. Power is the constraint: The standard 4,000-amp spec service, the first pre-leasing the market has seen (Quanta's deal with Prologis in Fremont's Bayside district), and on-site fuel cells as a stopgap. What tenants want: Speed to occupancy, power, parking and curb appeal. Kapp says rent isn't in their top five. Automation and jobs: Bay Area manufacturing employment is falling even as leasing rises. Also Figure AI at The Assembly in North San Jose, Tesla's Optimus line in Fremont, and why suppliers need to be close by. Defense tech: The Bay Area and Southern California's role in the military's move toward technology. New power coming online: LS Power's roughly $1B transmission line linking North San Jose and Fremont, PG&E substation upgrades, and grid-scale battery storage. What's next: Electric truck charging stops, Zipline's drone delivery network, the university talent pipeline, and why the FAA stands between us and flying cars. Chapters 00:00 Introductions 01:01 Defining advanced manufacturing 03:28 Why manufacturing left, and why it's coming back 04:59 Can the Bay Area keep manufacturers as they scale? 06:41 The sectors driving demand 10:42 Power specs, upgrades and pre-leasing 13:26 Fuel cells as a power stopgap 14:51 What tenants prioritize, and where rent ranks 18:21 Automation and the jobs question 24:19 Figure AI, Tesla Optimus and supplier proximity 29:27 Defense tech in California 31:52 New transmission and substation capacity 34:13 Mini data centers, nuclear, truck charging and drone delivery 38:12 The talent pipeline: Stanford, Berkeley, UCSF, SJSU and SFBU 40:50 When do we get flying cars?

September 18, 202633 min

The Great Ownership Shift: Puget Sound's New Money Moves In

Publisher Vladimir Bosanac talks with Evan McLeod, Principal at Palmero Partners, about the state of Puget Sound investment heading into Q3 2026. A generation of long-time private owners is exiting — retirement, rent control, pet-fee bans, aging brick buildings — while new hands-on capital moves in chasing well-located assets at bases the region hasn't seen in years. Evan opens up the operator's side too: insurance premiums doubling, summer electricity bills tripling, and the creative financing getting deals over the line. They close on TikTok's five-day return-to-office push and the electric run Seattle had hosting the World Cup. Guest: Evan McLeod, Palmero Partners Host: Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder & publisher of The Registry Chapters: 0:00 Welcome & Seattle check-in 1:50 State of Puget Sound investment 3:08 The generational ownership shift 4:52 Institutional capital returns 6:53 Construction, jobs & Green Street outlook 8:19 Insurance premiums doubling 12:10 Electricity, data centers & PG&E 17:49 Seller financing & private debt 21:19 Vacancy & return-to-office 23:19 TikTok's 5-day RTO mandate 28:47 The World Cup & Seattle sports

September 10, 20261 hr 20 min

The Bottom of the Pyramid: Small Tenants, Big Demand

Host Vladimir Bosanac is joined by co-host David Arscott (CEO & Co-Founder, Baycrest Capital ) for a read on the multifamily and industrial markets — then sits down with David Klein (EVP & Managing Principal, Lee & Associates SF) on the most underserved corner of life science real estate. In this episode: Multifamily is bouncing off the bottom — national vacancy near 4.3%, Bay Area rents up ~9% YoY, and Green Street projecting ~8% CAGR rent growth in Northern California over three years. Industrial is a step behind in the cycle — construction costs outpacing rent growth, small-bay and last-mile flex space holding demand while big-box supply gets absorbed. Rent control's double edge — lessons from New York's five boroughs, plus Redwood City's November ballot measure and California's Builders Remedy push. The energy question — Texas chasing a staggering 474 GW of grid demand (vs. 12.7 GW for all of PG&E territory), why the real number may be 10–20x smaller, and Google's not-quite-sci-fi pitch for data centers in space. Life science's forgotten 40% — David Klein on the "demand pyramid," why sub-10,000 SF lab space runs 0.1–2.2% vacancy while the broader market sits near 29%, and how Lab Space Directory advocates for the small tenants nobody represents. Guests: David Arscott — CEO & Co-Founder, Baycrest Capital ( LinkedIn ) David Klein — EVP & Managing Principal, Lee & Associates San Francisco ( LinkedIn )

August 31, 202643 min

The AI Rent Boom — Why Bay Area Multifamily Is the Hottest Market in the Country

The Bay Area multifamily market keeps getting "wilder and wilder." In this episode, host Vladimir Bosanac (co-founder and publisher of The Registry) sits down with Dave Saxe, Managing Principal at Calvera Partners, to unpack why San Francisco has become arguably the strongest multifamily market in the country — with 25–30% lease trade-outs, vacancy at a 20-year low, and the AI boom pulling equity back to a region investors were fleeing just a few years ago. From there the conversation widens out: which markets are next in line (Seattle, Austin, and a sleeper pick in Orange County), what's really happening with interest rates and inflation heading into 2027, and where distress and deal flow might finally open up. The pair close with two "Microscope / Telescope" segments — the newly passed 21st Century Road to Housing Act and California's decision to sue five cities over housing — plus the eye-opening economic numbers rolling in from World Cup host cities. Chapters / timestamps * (00:00) Welcome and episode roadmap * (02:10) SF multifamily: 25–30% lease trade-outs, 8–10%+ market rent growth, 20-year-low vacancy * (04:21) Rent-to-income ratio and how much runway is left (Green Street's ~8% 3-year CAGR) * (06:45) The ripple effect — Oakland, the Peninsula, Silicon Valley, and market cyclicality * (08:50) Investor appetite: capital flips back to the Bay Area, but deals are slim pickings * (10:44) Supply crunch — inclusionary housing cuts, impact fees, union costs, ~5.25% return on cost * (13:08) Lending: open for existing product, tighter for new construction * (15:09) Other markets — Austin: supply glut, has it found a bottom? * (16:24) Seattle / Puget Sound: AI hiring, life science, cheaper housing, politics * (20:45) Orange County: the defense-AI sleeper pick * (23:03) Interest rates & inflation — core CPI ~3.2%, 6.5%+ mortgages, the "new normal" * (26:08) The refinance wall and where distress could open up deal flow * (27:48) REITs, cost of capital, and the Essex/EQR "we love the Bay Area" story * (31:52) Microscope/Telescope: the 21st Century Road to Housing Act (passed 85–5) * (33:56) California sues five cities over housing — Half Moon Bay, Huntington Beach * (37:03) World Cup economics — San Jose watch parties, NY/NJ's $2.1B impact, Seattle merchants

August 20, 202646 min

The Great Handoff: AI, Aging Owners, and Where Work Goes Next

Vlad and Laura sit down to trace a single thread running through three of the biggest shifts in how — and where — we work. They open with China's startling leap into an AI-and-gig-powered labor force (44% of workers now in the gig economy) and what a number like that would mean for a U.S. system built around employer-provided healthcare, pensions, and the 9-to-5. From there, they turn to "the great handoff": the trillions of dollars in small-business ownership changing hands as baby boomers retire, why so many viable companies may simply close for lack of a succession plan, and the overlooked opportunity for young people to buy a business rather than build one from scratch. Finally, they map Gen Z's move toward tier-two and tier-three towns in search of a slower, more affordable life — and what that migration means for Waymos and driver's licenses, for population trends, and for the fight over where data centers get built. It's a wide-ranging, optimistic conversation about disruption, adaptation, and the chance to do things better. Key Takeaways China already has ~44% of its labor force in the gig economy, offering a preview of an AI-shaped workforce the U.S. safety net isn't structured for. Automation is reshaping jobs more than simply eliminating them — but the U.S. reliance on employers for healthcare and retirement makes the transition higher-stakes here. ~45% of privately held Bay Area businesses are owned by baby boomers; without succession plans, many profitable, viable companies risk closing rather than transferring. Buying an established small business can be lower-risk than founding one — over 70–80% of startups fail within a few years, while acquisition comes with an existing customer base and financing tools like SBA loans. Gen Z is increasingly prioritizing rest, health, and affordability, fueling migration to tier-two and tier-three "Zoom towns" and revitalizing smaller communities. Fewer teens are getting driver's licenses, and developers are already designing for a lower-car future (e.g., convertible parking garages). The data-center backlash is bipartisan; the path forward may be requiring facilities to generate their own clean power and recycle water so they become a community asset, not a burden. Hosts Vladimir Bosanac — Co-host; publisher and co-founder of The Registry. Laura Kreuger — Co-host; third-generation real estate investor and founder of Asset Locale, focused on property-management operations and technology.

August 13, 202648 min

From Silicon Valley to El Segundo: Defense Tech, Data Centers, and the Grid That Powers It All

Hosts: Vladimir Bosanac , Co-Founder & Publisher of The Registry , and Tom Fischer , Principal and Director of Capital Markets at JB Matteson In this episode, Vlad and Tom trace how the West Coast's commercial real estate map is being redrawn — from a defense-tech boom reshaping Southern California, to the mounting political fight over AI data centers, to an industrial sector cooling off its pandemic-era peak, and the interest-rate and geopolitical crosscurrents pressuring multifamily. They close with a lighthearted look at one surprisingly recession-proof, AI-proof career. What they get into: Southern California's defense-tech surge and why the "script has flipped" from Silicon Valley — funding still flows from the north, but the hardware expertise, machine shops, skilled manufacturing labor, and legacy footprint (Northrop, Raytheon, Boeing, SpaceX, Anduril) are concentrated in the south. El Segundo, once a Standard Oil refinery town, now reportedly boasts the second-highest density of PhDs in California. Emerging occupiers like Flight Wave Aerospace, True Anomaly, Trino Manufacturing, Heart Aerospace, and Millennium Space Systems are taking 30,000–90,000 SF and poised to grow, with lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East driving demand for cheaper, AI-enabled, autonomous systems. The growing backlash against AI data centers, including New York Governor Hochul's one-year moratorium on hyperscaler builds, pauses in Seattle and Monterey Park, and local opposition in California. Tom and Vlad debate the "build vs. pause" framing, the geopolitical stakes of ceding the AI race to China, and practical middle-ground solutions — closed-loop water systems, bringing your own power, micro-nuclear, solar, and waste-heat reuse (à la Microsoft's Finland projects) — plus the regulatory bottlenecks (eight-year utility hookups, Three Mile Island's restart) standing in the way. The industrial market's reset: despite bearish headlines, national vacancy sits around 7% with positive net absorption (~62M SF in Q2, ~113–114M SF YTD per Cushman & Wakefield). The Inland Empire — the country's largest industrial market — has climbed to 8.8% vacancy with values off roughly 40% from their 2022 peak, while LA (4.2%) and Chicago (4.8%) hold firm. Construction has fallen ~30% off the ~1B SF boom peak to about 305M SF underway, as tariffs, oversupply, and higher cap rates push tenants toward renewals over expansion. The macroeconomic overlay: the unraveling Middle East MOU, oil and inflation risk, and a 10-year Treasury up ~15–20 bps across the curve — and what it means for multifamily transaction volume, rent growth (SF ~4.5% YoY per Yardi, San Jose ~1%, Sacramento ~0.5%), and JB Matteson's fundamentals-driven acquisition approach in a market where capital is on the sidelines. And to close, the microscope/telescope segment: why elevator mechanics in San Francisco pull $130K+ salaries with ironclad job security, aging century-old building stock, and a wry conversation about which jobs survive the rise of "physical AI" and robotics. Notable moment: "A decision deferred is a decision made — is not a good rule to live by." — on data center moratoriums. Chapters: (00:00) Intro — anchoring the Bay Area from San Jose and San Francisco (01:00) Defense tech's move to Southern California (13:10) Data centers, AI, and the moratorium debate (24:36) The industrial market reset (35:08) Macro drivers: interest rates, the Middle East, and multifamily (42:40) Microscope/Telescope: elevator mechanics and the AI-proof job

August 6, 202659 min

Redco's Chris Freise: AI Leasing, the Power Crunch, and a 1935 Bar as an SF Recovery Story

On this episode of the Real Perspectives Podcast, Chris Freise gives a rare up-and-down-the-coast view of commercial real estate as someone who invests, operates, and develops across all three major West Coast metros. The conversation digs into Redco's contrarian office thesis — buying San Francisco office with debt when nearly everyone else was forced to pay all cash — and how the AI leasing recovery arrived faster than Chris expected. He talks through the 400,000-square-foot Wells Fargo building on California Street, why 28,000-square-foot floor plates are a decisive advantage, and how the market has shifted from small tenants to a hunt for 100,000-to-400,000-square-foot users. On culture, Chris argues the amenities war still comes down to food and hospitality more than saunas and cold plunges, using Redco's 28 Utah project as an example. The group then works through the regional picture: San Francisco's surprising retail rebound (Antitown Coffee coming to 300 California), Seattle trailing the cycle by 12 to 24 months with Anthropic's lease as a first real AI flag, and Southern California's distress in land and office alongside the hard-to-crack Inland Empire industrial market. A central thread is power as the new currency — how tenants over-ask for amperage they often don't use, PG&E's surcharge risk, the Hayward building Redco delivered with New York Life, and the strange case of a 12-megawatt substation for sale on just 20,000 square feet. On capital, Chris explains why institutional money is piling into the two "food groups" — industrial (increasingly advanced manufacturing) and multifamily — compressing cap rates, pushing land prices up 20 to 25 percent, and reshaping the math on ground-up development. Rob and Chris also trade notes on design and placemaking, from the Hayward R&D building to why Seattle's design-review culture produces better architecture. The episode closes on Harrington's Bar and Grill at 245 Front Street — a 1935 immigrant-founded pub Redco saved from becoming something else, now posting record sales as a living symbol of San Francisco's downtown recovery. Timestamps (00:00) Intro and welcome (00:53) The Redco story: two brothers, three metros, and the "Robert Edward Daniels" name (04:26) The office thesis — buying with debt when everyone else paid cash (05:02) The AI recovery and the 400K-sf Wells Fargo building (07:16) How deep is demand for 200K–400K-sf blocks? (10:22) Building culture in AI offices: why food still wins (12:29) Downtown and retail recovery; Antitown Coffee at 300 California (14:19) Seattle and SoCal: why local politics drives the investment climate (17:10) The housing-supply debate and Seattle's overbuild (19:54) What needs to change to unlock Bay Area housing starts (20:39) Palo Alto's fish-market site and a 400-unit outlier (22:53) Southern California: distressed office, land, and the Inland Empire (28:40) Power as a make-or-break issue for tenants (32:22) PG&E, surcharges, and power as benefit and risk (36:04) Where the money wants to go: industrial and multifamily (40:20) Sunnyvale, UPS, and land prices climbing 20–25% (46:00) Design, placemaking, and the Hayward R&D building (52:59) Harrington's Bar and Grill: a 1935 pub as a recovery barometer (58:29) Closing thoughts

July 30, 202642 min

Construction Slows, Data Centers Surge: Reading the 2026 CRE Cycle

Vladimir Bosanac, co-founder and publisher of The Registry, welcomes back David Arscott of Baycrest Capital for another wide-ranging look at the forces shaping commercial real estate. They open on a striking headline: second-quarter construction deliveries have fallen to their lowest level since 2011 — fifteen years ago — as rising costs, softening valuations, and oversupply in hot markets like Austin, Denver, and Miami finally catch up with development pipelines. Yet on the ground in the Bay Area, contractors still can't hire fast enough, a paradox David and Vlad trace to the one corner of construction that's booming: data centers. From there the conversation turns to the surge of new capital flooding into data centers, where vacancy sits near zero and investment has overtaken office. But the boom is drawing pushback — Monterey Park has banned new data centers outright and Seattle has imposed a 12-month moratorium — pushing development toward friendlier markets and raising hard questions about energy. Vlad and David dig into the grid constraints, the politics of green versus fossil energy, and why nuclear (and micro-nuclear) may finally get its moment. The pair then examine the emerging value play in beaten-down urban cores, using the takeback of 415 Natoma — San Francisco's newest office tower, recently trading around $300 a foot versus the $900-plus of the last cycle — as a case study in how a lower basis resets what a building can lease for. With Northmarq's Jeff Whitehell recently estimating the market is only about halfway through its distressed-asset cycle, they see more value-add and distress ahead over the next 12–18 months. Finally, they weigh Goldman Sachs' 15% recession odds against a hawkish Fed, stubborn inflation, and the elephant in the room: AI valuations. Drawing parallels to the dot-com bust, they debate whether an AI correction would stay contained among private companies or ripple through pension funds and the broader economy — while agreeing the underlying technology, like the internet before it, isn't going anywhere. In the closing "Microscope / Telescope" segment, they zoom in on how looming AI IPOs are already pushing luxury home prices higher (with all-cash Bay Area deals now topping $1,700 a foot), the wildcard of a first-ever recorded U.S. population decline, and a Phoenix industrial market that swung from 4% to 12% vacancy in two years — where a fresh $122 million JLL bridge loan signals renewed confidence and the growing mainstreaming of bridge lending. Topics & timestamps (00:01) Intro — Welcome and catching up (01:10) Construction deliveries hit lowest level since 2011 — Rising costs, softening valuations, and the lag between planning and delivery (04:31) The labor paradox — Why Bay Area contractors still can't hire despite a national slowdown (06:42) New capital floods into data centers — Investment overtaking office; near-zero vacancy (08:26) The pushback — Monterey Park's ban, Seattle's moratorium, and where development migrates next (12:04) The energy question — Grid limits, renewables, and the case for nuclear (16:19) The urban-core value play — 415 Natoma, lower basis, and the distress cycle (with a nod to Northmarq's Jeff Whitehell) (23:07) Employment stays resilient — Low unemployment amid economic crosswinds (24:00) Recession odds & the AI valuation risk — Goldman's 15%, a hawkish Fed, and dot-com parallels (32:06) Microscope / Telescope: AI IPOs & housing — Luxury home prices, all-cash deals, and a shrinking population (38:07) Phoenix industrial boom-bust — 4% to 12% vacancy, a $122M bridge loan, and bridge lending going mainstream