Moving Markets

Hosted by Julius Baer

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1117

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Oct 2026

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About the show

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients. The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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60 recent

October 17, 202624 min

The View Beyond: China's post-Golden Week reality check

China's Golden Week is often viewed as a pulse check on the health of the world's second-largest economy. This year, the results have reignited debate over consumer confidence, policy stimulus and the outlook for growth. In this episode, we examine what the latest Golden Week trends reveal, while exploring the bigger investment questions around China's property market, technological ambitions, export outlook and the impact of escalating trade tensions. Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research, Hong Kong at Julius Baer, sits down with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Lotus Asset Management, for a wide-ranging discussion on market sentiment, economic recovery and where investors may find the most compelling opportunities in China over the next 6 months. (00:28) - What options do policymakers have following weaker Golden Week data? (03:51) - Property stimulus and growth outlook (09:30) - China's rapid advancements in technological innovation (13:40) - Tightening trade restrictions - what's the impact? (18:07) - Are investors being overly pessimistic? (21:04) - Sectors to watch in the next 6 months

October 16, 202611 min

Equities up, bond prices up, Fed hike expectations down

European markets closed in positive territory on Thursday as investors rotated out of AI and tech stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare and materials, as well as buying up government bonds. The same story played out in the US where the Dow Jones was the star performer. Overnight comments from Fed Chair Warsh led to traders reducing their bets on an October hike from 25% to 15%. Warsh also made some encouraging comments about artificial intelligence which doubtless assisted the Asian equity market recovery this morning. As ever on a Friday, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, joins the podcast to deliver his thoughts on currencies and metals this week. Tune in to find out what he thinks about gold, the Aussie dollar, the Brazilian real, and even the Mexican peso. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:16) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (10:52) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

October 15, 202612 min

Hot US inflation, AI under pressure and iron ore's price divide

Markets were driven by three themes yesterday: hotter US inflation, rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, and a growing AI sell-off. These forces weighed on equities, even as market breadth in the S&P 500 remained broadly balanced, and triggered sharp swings in bonds and currencies. Europe held up well, but risk sentiment remains fragile heading into today, with technology stocks in Asia also under pressure. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses iron ore, including why the same iron ore trades at sharply different prices in different locations around the world. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:18) - Iron ore: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:56) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

October 14, 202615 min

Fed hopes, AI fears, and banks that fail to impress

Fed comments eased fears of prolonged policy tightening, helping equities recover from an uncertain start. Beneath the surface, however, AI-related stocks remained under pressure amid fresh concerns over China's technological ambitions, while US bank earnings failed to impress. Meanwhile, surging gas prices and renewed attacks in the Middle East reignited concerns ahead of today's US inflation report. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses the implications for corporate bonds, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, examines the outlook for both US and European banks. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:54) - Bond Market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:31) - US Financials update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:20) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

October 13, 202613 min

Geopolitics drive markets while AI faces new challenges

Geopolitical developments remained firmly in focus on Monday, lifting oil prices and supporting energy stocks, while technology shares came under pressure. At the same time, investors digested hawkish central bank rhetoric and prepared for the start of a closely watched earnings season. In today’s show, Enrico Chinello from Next Generation Research discusses OpenAI’s revenue rate, intensifying competition within the AI industry, and the growing opposition to data centre expansion. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:32) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:34) - AI price wars: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation Research (12:35) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

October 12, 202611 min

SpaceX shocks telecoms, oil defies geopolitics, and earnings season begins

Markets rebounded on Friday as OpenAI's revenue outlook and Trump's ‘energy ceasefire’ with Russia eased supply concerns, weighing on oil despite geopolitical risks. SpaceX's move into mobile telecom sent US carriers sharply lower. Attention now turns to major US bank earnings, inflation data, and semiconductor results. In today’s show Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis team explains why the US technology sector remains the only game in town, what levels the euro needs to defend, and what lies ahead for precious metals. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (01:19) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (07:27) - Technical Analysis update: Markus Wachter, Technical Analysis (10:25) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

October 10, 202621 min

The View Beyond: AI: Money for nothing?

Hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure has reached unprecedented levels, with capital expenditure figures now dwarfing even those of the global oil and gas industry. As spending surges and supply tightness persists, investors are wondering how sustainable this boom is, and which segments of the AI value chain stand to benefit most? In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video at Julius Baer, is joined by Enrico Chinello, research analyst in the Next Generation Research team, to examine the drivers behind hyperscaler spending, the impact on the AI value chain, and the outlook for key beneficiaries such as semiconductor manufacturers and equipment providers. The discussion covers the sustainability of current investment levels, the implications for free cash flow and financing habits among leading AI companies, and the risks and opportunities as the AI cycle continues to accelerate. (00:00) - Introduction (00:57) - Defining hyperscalers and their role (01:57) - The scale and acceleration of hyperscaler capital expenditure (03:52) - Risks of AI training losing steam and visibility on spending (04:19) - Market reactions to AI risk warnings and supply chain constraints (05:49) - Drivers of price inflation in memory and compute units (07:23) - FOMO and hyperscaler behaviour in capacity booking (08:01) - Who bears the cost of rising AI infrastructure spending? (08:32) - Duration of supply tightness and outlook for normalization (09:17) - Pricing power across semiconductors, memory, servers (11:07) - Who will benefit most in the AI value chain? (11:23) - Beyond semiconductors (13:04) - The sustainability of the AI spending boom and changing financing habits (14:33) - Free cash flow compression and outlook for returns (16:27) - Risks and what to monitor (18:10) - Pacing the frontier - what will be the impact? (20:31) - Closing remarks (21:22) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

October 9, 202614 min

Markets shake off OpenAI fears and bond bulls return to the table

Markets stumbled after a newspaper report suggested that OpenAI's annualised revenues could fall well short of previous expectations. Overnight, however, sentiment improved as doubts emerged over the accuracy of the report. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected 30-year US Treasury auction helped drive yields lower, providing additional support for equities alongside easing oil prices. In today's episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold, and the emerging market currencies he believes offer the most compelling opportunities. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (08:30) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (13:27) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

October 8, 202613 min

Bond markets, the oil puzzle and electric vehicles

Markets are being driven by developments in bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, concerns over French public finances weigh on sentiment, while in the US, inflation worries and a well-received Treasury auction triggered sharp moves in yields. Other topics include the challenges facing European carmakers in China, the resilience of US equities, and SpaceX looking to tap the bond market. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses the apparent disconnect between the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports and persistently high oil prices, as well as the positive momentum in the electric vehicle market. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:08) - Energy markets/oil update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (12:10) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

October 7, 202614 min

S&P 500 at record high as earnings loom and French risks persist

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs in a broad-based rally, while lower bond yields and oil prices supported European equities. Overnight, renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and weighed on Asian markets. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, notes that French fiscal risks are justified, but markets already reflect a fairly pessimistic outlook. The key question is whether the situation in France spills over to other eurozone countries. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, highlights the high hurdle for next week's US earnings season. Key areas to watch include bank earnings, hyperscaler capital expenditure, and signs of AI-driven productivity gains extending beyond the technology sector. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:41) - Q3 earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (13:37) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.