Why Stocks Keep Setting Records While Rates Rise, Plus New Tax Breaks for Seniors Over 65
In this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group in Tucson, Dave and Todd hold down the fort while Dean is in San Diego coaching the University of Arizona lacrosse team and Dylan takes Sebastian to his first SEC game in Kentucky. They dig into something Dave says he has not seen in his career. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both set new all time highs in the same week the ten year Treasury hit a 24 year high, and the technical oscillator was reading oversold at the top. Rising rates are supposed to work against stocks, so we get into why this market has been able to shrug that off, how multiple compression is quietly squeezing price to earnings ratios across the board even for NVIDIA, and why earnings growth has been doing all the heavy lifting. The more useful conversation for anyone near retirement is what high rates do to the math. When you can lock in north of five percent on long duration, the old four percent withdrawal rule starts looking like a relic of a three percent world. Todd walks through why we built the four percent rule the way we did, what a 60/40 portfolio actually generates in this environment, and how our strategic income model keeps five years of your spending in bonds so we never have to sell equities at the bottom to pay you. Dave shares what he told a client in a planning meeting last week, which is that this may be one of the more forgiving moments in decades to be stepping into retirement. Haley Glick joins us for the tax segment and untangles one of the most confusing calculations in the code, which is how much of your Social Security actually gets taxed. She explains provisional income, the thresholds where zero, fifty and eighty five percent of your benefit gets pulled into your taxable income, and why Congress built it that way in the first place. We walk through a real client with a small pension and thirty thousand in Social Security who owes nothing on that benefit, and how the One Big Beautiful Bill stacks a new six thousand dollar deduction per person over 65 on top of an already enlarged standard deduction. She also gets into what she keeps finding when she reviews returns prepared elsewhere, and why the phrase it is a write off has cost people more money than it has saved them. On the market side we cover Micron reporting the biggest quarter in its 48 year history with revenue up roughly 380% from a year ago and guidance calling for an even bigger one, Marvell taking orders into 2031, and why memory is on its way to being treated like a utility. We get into the SpaceX spectrum deal that knocked ten to fifteen percent off Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile in a single session while the cell tower stocks rallied, and why Dave changed his mind about what satellite service can actually replace. There is also Apple falling five percent on iPhone 18 order cuts right before the Duo launch, Cisco quietly becoming the top Dow stock of the year, nuclear names popping on the Meta and Constellation deal and a $34 billion government loan to Vistra, and a line item in NVIDIA’s filing about who owes them money that is worth watching. Plus Costco’s September numbers and a real disagreement about whether its membership base is aging out or aging in, Brian Niccol running Starbucks from Manhattan Beach while rumors swirl about Chipotle, a record low 54% of American adults who drink at all and what that does to restaurant margins, and a Tucson fun fact about how a University of Arizona lab helped NASA pick where to land on the moon. Our next free interactive financial planning seminar is Friday, October 30th from 11:30 to 2:00 at La Paloma Country Club. It is already about half full. Lunch is included, Haley will be there for tax questions, and you will see our full planning process and risk analysis start to finish. Register at www.GreenbergFinancial.com under the resource tab or give us a call. If you have been thinking about taking us up on the free financial plan, this is the kind of clarity it brings. If you would like to contact us to learn more about our firm, our seminars, and our process - call us at 520.544.4909 or go to our website at www.Greenbergfinancial.com or email us at Contact@Greenbergfinancial.com Disclaimer: This show discusses different investment products and strategies. Every product and strategy has some type of inherent risk and we strongly encourage our listeners to properly understand these risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. The material covered on this program does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is for general information purposes only. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Greenberg Financial Group is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements.






