Best In Wealth Podcast

Hosted by Scott Wellens

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Sep 2026

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This is the best in Wealth podcast – A show for successful family stewards who want real answers about Retirement and investing so we can feel secure about our family’s future. Scott's mission is simple: to help other family stewards build and maintain their family fortress. A family steward is someone that feels family is the most important thing. You go to your job every day for your family. You watch over your family, you make sacrifices for your family, you protect your family. I work with family stewards because I am one; I have become an expert in the unique wealth challenges family stewards face. Scott Wellens is the founder of Fortress Planning Group - an independent, fee-only, registered investment advisory firm. Fortress Planning Group is dedicated to coaching clients toward a holistic view of wealth and family stewardship. Scott is a certified financial planner, a fiduciary and has been quoted in the industry’s leading websites including Forbes, Business Insider and Yahoo Finance. Scott is also a Dave Ramsey Smartvestor Pro in the greater Milwaukee and Madison areas.

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October 16, 202624 min

The Real Costs of Long-Term Care, Ep #274

You’ve likely heard the oft-cited statistic: 70% of people turning 65 will need long-term care. While this number is technically accurate, it wildly overstates the financial risk. The broad 70% figure counts any functional limitation—such as a daughter driving you to an appointment for a few months—as “care.” A more meaningful statistic comes from Health and Human Services, which uses a stricter definition: needing help with at least two activities of daily living or supervision due to serious cognitive impairment, expected to last longer than 90 days. By this standard, 56% of Americans turning 65 will require long-term care. Nearly half will never face a significant care need, while about one in five will need care for more than five years—a potential financial catastrophe. Women face higher odds and longer durations of care, with 64% of women versus 49% of men developing a significant care need. Reasons include longer life expectancies and, for married couples, the pattern that the husband often receives care from his wife, while in widowhood, she must pay for professional or facility care. The Real Costs: Assisted Living, Nursing Homes, and Home Care The latest CareScout Cost of Care Survey puts hard numbers to what families face in 2025: In-home caregiving: $35/hour. At the typical 44 hours per week, that’s $80,000/year—and not even round-the-clock. Assisted living: Median costs are $6,200/month, or $74,400/year. Nursing home: $315/day for a semi-private room (about $115,000/year), with private rooms running closer to $130,000/year. The financial impact becomes clearer when you factor in duration. Assisted living at $74,000/year over 3.6 years (average for women) can easily surpass $270,000 before inflation. For the unlucky one in five who need care for five+ years, a lifetime’s savings can be wiped away. Who Pays? The Great Medicare Myth A stunning misconception is that Medicare will handle these costs. It won't—Medicare covers only short-term skilled care or rehab after a hospital stay, with strict caps. Custodial care, including help with bathing, dressing, eating, and other typical long-term care needs, is excluded. So who covers the bills? You (out-of-pocket): This is the default for middle- and upper-middle-income families, planned or not. Insurance: While long-term care insurance exists, it’s gotten pricier and harder to qualify for. Evaluation should happen in your 50s or early 60s, not your 70s. Family members: Often, a spouse or adult child becomes the caregiver. 63 million Americans act as caregivers, supplying care valued at over $1 trillion annually. Medicaid: This is a safety net only after assets have been nearly exhausted. The spouse at home (the “community spouse”) may retain some assets and the house, but this is far from an ideal retirement. The Power of Early Action Financial costs are only half the story. The first caregiver is usually a spouse, not a paid professional. Caregiving can rapidly erode the health, finances, and social connections of the caregiver, often leaving the surviving spouse depleted and isolated just as they face their own aging alone. Long-term care risk isn’t a remote possibility; it’s a central, knowable part of retirement planning. Every tool for managing it works better if you start before a crisis hits. Take the first step right now: look up care costs in your area, show them to your spouse, and start the conversation. Early planning isn’t just about saving money—it’s about protecting the person you love most from added hardship when they can least afford it. Outline of This Episode [00:00] Long-term care costs explained [05:15] Women at higher long-term care risk [09:06] Understanding Medicare and long-term care costs [12:33] Discussing caregiver options [15:05] Challenges of caregiving in retirement [17:54] Planning for long-term care costs [18:46] Your five action steps to plan for long-term care [20:34] Discussing future caregiving plans Resources Mentioned U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, ASPE — Long-Term Services and Supports for Older Americans: Risks and Financing, 2022. https://aspe.hhs.gov HHS/ASPE — What Is the Lifetime Risk of Needing and Receiving Long-Term Services and Supports? https://aspe.hhs.gov CareScout (formerly Genworth) — 2025 Cost of Care Survey. https://www.carescout.com/cost-of-care AARP and National Alliance for Caregiving — Caregiving in the U.S. 2025. https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/ltss/family-caregiving/caregiving-in-the-us-2025/ AARP Public Policy Institute — Valuing the Invaluable 2026. https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/ltss/family-caregiving/valuing-the-invaluable-2026-update/ Medicaid.gov — Spousal Impoverishment standards, 2026. https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/eligibility-policy/spousal-impoverishment Medicare.gov — skilled nursing facility coverage limits. https://www.medicare.gov Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show notes by <p...

September 18, 202627 min

How Survivor Stress Tests Protect Your Family’s Financial Future, Ep #273

Retirement planning is often seen as a numbers game—ensuring that you have saved enough, invested wisely, and built a strategy that will comfortably carry you through what should be your golden years. But those numbers only tell part of the story, the test of any retirement plan is not just whether it works on paper for two people, but if it can be carried by the one who is left after loss. This episode is inspired by real-world challenges clients face, so I am sharing my survivor stress test to help you refine your financial strategies before life throws the unthinkable your way. The Hidden Vulnerability in Retirement Planning Almost all plans in America focus on a couple, but the reality is that over half of married people will face widowhood or widowerhood, many while still managing mortgages, careers, and family responsibilities. Even if a plan “works” on paper—if the accounts are titled correctly, the math checks out, and the legal documents are in place—it could still fail the test of usability. The plan needs to be more than mathematically correct; it has to be understandable and executable by the survivor, who, in their time of greatest stress and vulnerability, may face complexities and choices they have never encountered before. Understanding the Survivor Stress Test The survivor stress test is a framework for couples and individuals to ask a critical question: If one of us were to die first, would the other understand the plan and feel able to carry it forward? Passing this test requires looking beyond adequacy to usability. In many households, one person manages the finances, knows the passwords, talks to the accountant, and understands the cash flow. The other often does not, and this can leave the survivor in a precarious position, especially when they are grieving. The Income Cliff: What Changes After Loss One of the most immediate and impactful changes after the death of a spouse is the income cliff. Social Security survivor rules are not always intuitive, and when one spouse dies, the surviving spouse receives the larger of the two checks, but the smaller check disappears permanently. This can mean an instant loss of 30-40% of household Social Security income, even as most expenses, like mortgages and property taxes, remain largely intact. Pension decisions loom even larger. Choosing a single-life payout maximizes current benefits but leaves the survivor with nothing, whereas a joint and survivor annuity, though slightly smaller each month, ensures continuing income. These decisions, made far in advance, cannot be revisited and must be carefully weighed in light of the survivor’s probable needs. The Unseen Tax Penalties Most people are unprepared for the surprising tax “penalties” that come with widowhood. Filing status shifts from married filing jointly to single, which often means higher effective tax rates on lower household income because of compressed tax brackets and a much smaller standard deduction. This can translate to hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional taxes over years of retirement—a burden that few anticipate. Additionally, surviving spouses may be affected by Medicare’s IRMAA surcharges, which, due to a two-year income lookback, can kick in just as income falls. Fortunately, forms like SSA-44 allow survivors to appeal IRMAA surcharges based on current-year income, but many do not know about this relief. The Human Side of Loss Grief can impair memory, concentration, and decision-making, right when the most consequential financial choices arrive. Survivors must re-title accounts, file claims, and sometimes manage pressure from family—all in an emotional fog. Prioritizing urgent actions (maintaining cash flow), deferring important but non-critical choices, and holding off on irreversible decisions (like selling a house) can prevent double grief where hasty choices compound heartache. The best way to pass the survivor stress test is communication, both partners should understand the plan, know where assets are, and feel confident in their ability to carry it forward. Conversations and second-opinion reviews with a qualified advisor can uncover hidden vulnerabilities and help ensure that whoever is left behind is secure. Outline of This Episode [00:52] The survivor stress test and financial planning for surviving spouse [04:23] Discussing family financial roles [08:59] Claiming Social Security benefits [10:18] Pension options: single life vs. joint and survivor payout [13:29] The widow’s penalty tax surprise [17:54] Importance of tax strategy while both spouses are alive [21:03] A decision-making framework for survivors Resources Mentioned Form SSA-44 Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

August 14, 202626 min

The Four Keys to a Truly Satisfying Retirement, Ep #272

Most of us equate a satisfying retirement with achieving a specific savings goal. We dream of the day when the work alarm clock is silenced, the 401(k) is plump, and we can finally enjoy life on our terms. But recent research challenges this traditional thinking, revealing that while money matters, it’s far from the only factor—sometimes not even the most important one. Why Half of Retirees Aren’t Truly Happy Only about half of retirees say their retirement is “very satisfying,” with most others falling into the “moderately satisfied” category and about 10% not satisfied at all. This leaves a pressing question—what separates those beaming with contentment from those just “okay” or unhappy after leaving the workforce? There is a tendency to assume money is the main culprit. Yet new research suggests a much smaller role for finances than is commonly believed, especially compared with other often-overlooked factors. Four Pillars of Retirement Satisfaction Savings: Your total nest egg, everything you’ve saved apart from your home. Lifetime Income: The predictable, recurring payments you’ll receive for life—think Social Security and pensions. Health: How you rate your physical condition. Social Connections: The strength and depth of your relationships, measured by how connected and supported you feel. I talk about how these four pillars interact, and—most importantly—how none alone can compensate for a shortfall in another. For instance, having vast savings won’t make up for a lack of social connections or poor health. The Surprising Power of Lifetime Income and Social Connection While retirees with over $1 million in savings and high lifetime income are the most satisfied (77%), those with far less in savings but significant guaranteed income (like Social Security) closely trail in happiness (73%). The reliability of a regular paycheck in retirement can be more psychologically satisfying than simply having a large pile of assets. But the single strongest predictor of retirement satisfaction, after controlling for all factors, was not money at all—it was social connection. Having a strong circle of friends was associated with higher satisfaction than having a seven-figure bank account. Positive social connections can even offset the effects of deteriorating health. Retirees with fair health but strong friendships are nearly as satisfied as those with excellent health but few friends. The Weakest Link: Why All Four Factors Matter These factors stack rather than substitute. You can’t out-save your way out of loneliness, nor can vibrant health buy your way out of financial insecurity. Satisfaction is governed by your weakest link—so maximizing all four areas is key. So, how can you prepare for a truly satisfying retirement? Strengthen Social Ties : Identify work-based friendships at risk of fading after retirement, and make efforts to integrate them into your new routine. Join clubs or volunteer—even before you retire—to lay strong social foundations. Prioritize Health : Invest in your well-being through activities that blend exercise and social engagement (think pickleball or group classes). Maximize Lifetime Income : Consider strategies like delaying Social Security to increase your guaranteed monthly income. Develop a Holistic Plan: Don’t just focus on your “magic number.” Plan for your daily life—how you’ll spend your time and with whom—after the paychecks stop. Your “Retirement Number” Isn’t Enough In the end, financial security is essential, but it’s only half the equation. To enjoy the best years of your life, cultivate health and meaningful relationships, and find purpose beyond work. Start addressing your weakest pillar today, and you’ll build not just a wealthy retirement, but a happy one. Outline of This Episode [04:10] Understanding retirement satisfaction [07:41] Different types of retirement money [10:26] Explaining the Income Lab tool [14:45] Importance of health and connections [17:05] Balancing life priorities [20:31] Work as social infrastructure [23:41] Importance of holistic retirement planning Resources Mentioned Health and Retirement Study Income Lab WHO Commission on Social Connection Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation: The U.S. Surgeon General’s Advisory on the Healing Effects of Social Connection and Community David Blanchett Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not...

July 17, 202623 min

Avoiding the 5 Biggest Retirement Pitfalls, Ep #271

Retirement is the beginning of a new chapter, full of opportunity, challenges, and critical decisions about your financial future. Protecting your retirement means understanding and proactively managing the most significant risks you will face. On the show this week, I explore the five biggest risks to a secure retirement and outline strategies to help you and your family prepare for the road ahead. Outliving Your Money Most people underestimate how long their retirement might last. According to Social Security actuarial data, a 65-year-old man has a 50% chance of reaching age 84; for women, it’s 87. For couples, there is an even chance at least one partner will live past 90, and a one-in-five chance one will reach 95. Planning for “average life expectancy” is not enough—by definition, half of retirees will outlive that average. Structure your retirement plan and savings to last up to 30 years. Market & Sequence of Returns Risk Future investment returns are unknowable, especially as you near retirement. The sequence of those returns—the order in which market ups and downs occur—can determine whether you run out of money. A retiree who encounters a bear market early in retirement is far more vulnerable than someone hit with poor returns later on. I recommend you: De-Risk Your Portfolio Before Retirement: Gradually shift to safer assets in your final working years. Build a Cash Buffer: Maintaining three years of living expenses in cash or similarly stable assets lets you weather bear markets without selling investments at a loss. Stress Test Your Retirement Date: Can you still retire if the market drops 30% the year before retirement? Adopt a Flexible Withdrawal Plan: Use guardrails—predefined spending increases or cuts—to respond to market conditions. Health and Long-Term Care Risk Healthcare costs are one of the largest and least predictable components of retirement expenses. About 70% of people turning 65 will need some form of long-term care, which can cost upwards of $75,000–$130,000 per year, depending on the type of care. Critically, Medicare does not cover most long-term care needs. Evaluate whether you can self-insure or if you need to purchase long-term care insurance. Your decision window closes in your 50s and early 60s. Decision and Fraud Risk The risk of making poor decisions—especially under stress—or falling victim to fraud is rising. Cognitive decline can begin well before it is noticeable, and with the rise of AI, scams are more convincing than ever. Put defensive measures in place, maybe add trusted contacts to your accounts, update power of attorney and beneficiaries, and set a family code word to combat scams involving cloned voices. Inflation Risk Over a 30-year retirement, even a modest inflation rate can erode your purchasing power by half. At 3% inflation, today's $60,000 lifestyle will require $120,000 in just 24 years. We all need to plan for rising costs, so periodically review and adjust your projections and spending patterns as prices change. Outline of This Episode [05:41] Optimizing Social Security Strategy [09:52] Managing Retirement Portfolio Risks [13:08] Planning for long-term care costs [14:47] Assessing long-term care options [19:20] Preparing family financial safeguards [21:50] Preparing for future challenges Resources Mentioned Cost of Care Report | Carescout Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice. *******************************************************************************************************

June 12, 202627 min

Preparing Your Retirement Portfolio for a Grizzly Bear Market, Ep #270

Are you ready for the next grizzly bear?—not the animal, but a major market downturn. He discusses the history of market corrections, bear markets, and the rare but devastating grizzly bear markets, illustrating why it is crucial to evaluate your portfolio’s risk level during strong market conditions—not during times of crisis. Whether you are approaching retirement or still in your wealth-building years, this episode will prompt you to reconsider your risk tolerance, portfolio diversification, and readiness for inevitable market storms. Outline of This Episode [03:34] Importance of communicating about conflict before it arises [06:27] Discussing market downturns and returns [10:16] Understanding Market Corrections [11:31] S&P 500 correction frequency [16:51] Assessing portfolio risk levels [18:01] Understanding risk and portfolio deviations [24:03] Preparing for market downturns [25:11] Preparing for market downturns The Importance of Talking About Risk—Before the Downturn Much like in relationships, it is best to address potential conflicts before they arise; investors address risk before markets turn volatile. Re-evaluating your comfort with risk and your portfolio's construction when things are calm puts you in the driver’s seat. Waiting until a downturn hits can leave you reactionary and vulnerable to poor decisions—like panic selling when it hurts the most. Understanding Corrections, Bear Markets, and Grizzly Bear Markets I break market volatility into three categories: 1. Corrections – The Baby Bear A correction is a market drop of at least 10% from its recent high. While the news can make a big fuss about corrections, they are common and, historically, have historically recovered relatively quickly. The S&P 500 has seen 28 corrections since 1969—that is about one every two years. The best move during a correction is strategic rebalancing, not panic. 2. Bear Markets – The Bear Bear markets are drops of 20% or more. Since 1969, they have happened eight times—about once every seven years. Bear markets are more serious than corrections and can be emotionally challenging, but they are still a normal part of the investing cycle. If you are lying awake at night during a bear market, it probably means your portfolio risk was not suited to your comfort level before the downturn. 3. Grizzly Bear Markets – The Real Threat A grizzly bear market is a severe drop of 30% or more, and these are rare but devastating. Since 1969, only three have occurred: during the oil and stagflation crisis of the ‘70s, the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s, and the 2008 financial crisis. These markets can take years to recover—some up to 91 months for a portfolio invested solely in the S&P 500. Diversification and Rebalancing What separates those who weather grizzly bear markets from those who do not? Preparation and portfolio construction. A diversified 60% stocks/40% bonds portfolio has historically fared much better during grizzly bear markets—experiencing smaller drawdowns and much faster recovery times than a pure stock portfolio. By owning more than one asset class and maintaining an “airbag” of bonds and cash, retirees can draw on their safer reserves during downturns, giving stocks time to recover. The Questions Every Investor Should Be Asking If you are living off your investments, in or near retirement, now is the time to ask: Is my plan set up for the next grizzly bear? Can I withstand a major downturn? Do I have the right mix of stocks, bonds, and cash? Has my advisor “back-tested” my plan against worst-case scenarios? Grizzly bear markets, though rare, are inevitable over a long investing life. The pain is real—but so are the solutions. Assess your risk now, diversify, prepare your cash and bond airbags, and ensure your plan has been rigorously tested for rough times. Addressing risk in your portfolio now leaves you sleeping soundly—no matter what the market throws your way. Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

May 15, 202619 min

The Retirement Trap Nobody's Talking About, Ep #269

While most of us spend our working lives worrying about running out of money in retirement, Many retirees actually die with far more money than they anticipated—often missing out on the experiences, generosity, and freedom that their hard-earned savings could have provided. In this episode, I discuss why so many family stewards struggle to enjoy their wealth, and offer practical steps to find balance, conquer financial fears, and ensure you fully live the retirement you planned for. Outline of This Episode [04:03] Why retirees struggle to spend [08:02] Encouraging retirees to spend [09:53] Inheriting money later in life [16:48] Enjoying life during retirement [17:54] Avoiding a life half-lived Why Don’t Retirees Spend? There are several reasons behind this: 1. Habitual Saver Syndrome Decades of saving, budgeting, and controlled spending form a deeply ingrained mindset. The wealth behaviors that enabled financial abundance are difficult to turn off suddenly at retirement. The decision to start drawing down your assets can even feel like an identity crisis: Spending then can feel like a failure, after years of associating self-worth with accumulation. 2. Fear of the Unknown Even with a robust nest egg, fear is powerful: fear of running out, fear of the next market crash, fear of inflation or healthcare expenses. This anxiety may cause retirees to under-spend, even when the math says they are safe. 3. Identity and Psychological Attachment For many, growing their savings has become part of their identity. Watching account balances grow is emotionally satisfying; drawing them down is not. Even after retirement, some people feel pressure to preserve and accumulate, rather than to enjoy their wealth—leading to decades with little change in their net worth. The Cost of Waiting Research shows that many retirees retain nearly 80% of their nest egg even 20 years into retirement. At the same time, spending naturally declines as we age due to reduced energy, declining health, and fewer active experiences. The risk is missing out on the vital “go-go years”—the healthiest, most mobile phase of retirement—only to find that it’s too late to use those savings for the adventures and family moments we dreamed about. Regrets and Lessons Learned After years of working with retirees, I consistently hear the most common regrets of wishing they’d retired sooner, traveled more, spent more time with family, or helped children and grandchildren earlier. Rarely does anyone say, “I wish I died with more money in my account.” Make sure you enjoy what you’ve built by defining the purpose of your money and clarifying what your savings are for—security, freedom, experiences, a legacy, or charitable impact. You also need to separate fear from reality, using financial planning tools, like Income Lab, can give you clarity and permission to spend by showing what’s truly sustainable. Consider starting a memory budget, instead of only budgeting for bills, earmark resources for family trips, special experiences, and gifts while you are alive. The real goal isn’t reckless spending—it’s alignment. Let your money serve your life, not the other way around. The greatest retirement tragedy isn’t running out of money, but failing to live the life your savings could have enabled. Plan wisely—then give yourself permission to spend, to give, and to make memories. That’s how you avoid the retirement trap nobody is talking about. Resources Mentioned Income Lab Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com

April 17, 202626 min

Should You Stay the Course? War, Oil, and Your Investments, Ep #268

Watching the news recently has been an uneasy experience for investors and retirees. War headlines dominate the airwaves, oil prices have surged to new highs, and portfolio balances may not look as reassuring as they did months ago. For family stewards looking to safeguard their financial futures, the temptation to react to these global shocks is powerful. But it’s crucial not to make emotional financial decisions. Understanding the Crisis In March 2026, military strikes in the Middle East led to severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a global oil supply chokepoint through which 20% of the world’s daily oil supply flows. Although the U.S. itself is less directly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, oil’s status as a globally priced commodity means any disruption impacts global prices and, by extension, markets everywhere. Brent crude prices quickly soared, spiking 10–15% in a day and peaking at $120 per barrel, amid fears it could rise further. Unsurprisingly, the financial markets responded with a bout of volatility. The VIX index—a gauge of investor fear—jumped from 19 to 25. Though jarring, Speaker A reminds us that these numbers pale compared to the shock during the COVID crisis when the VIX broke 80 (07:02). Recognizing this scale is the first step toward a measured response. Oil Prices and the Stock Market: It’s Complicated Many assume a direct, simple link: oil prices soar, stocks tumble. While sometimes true in the short term, history tells a more nuanced story. The real variable is the duration of the oil shock, not the shock itself. In the 1973 Arab oil embargo, prices quadrupled, sustained for months, and the S&P 500 lost 37% in real terms, and recovery took six years. In the 1990 Gulf War, oil prices rose 75% in two months, but once the conflict was resolved, markets rebounded in just 28 days. In 2003, fears about Iraq pushed prices up, yet the S&P 500 delivered a 25% return the following year as disruptions were short-lived. In general, short, contained shocks resolve quickly with strong recoveries. Prolonged crises cause lasting damage. Building a Rock Solid Portfolio Withstanding economic storms starts with thoughtful preparation, and ideally, we want to create a “fortress portfolio”—not a flimsy wall, but a robust structure capable of weathering attacks. This involves deep diversification: U.S. small-cap and value stocks International and emerging markets Real estate investment trusts Short-term and inflation-protected bonds Diversification means that even when panic causes correlations to rise temporarily, the portfolio is designed for resilience, not prediction. Selling during a crisis, by contrast, locks in losses and exposes investors to the impossible challenge of timing the market's rebound—a decision research shows most people get wrong. Lasting Wealth Is Built Through Hard Times War and oil shocks always ignite fear, but history and evidence are clear that those who stay disciplined, trust a well-built portfolio, and avoid emotional, short-term decisions are the ones who preserve and grow wealth. It isn’t easy to hold the line, but it is the surest path to security and freedom for your family’s future. Outline of This Episode [00:00] Retirement planning during uncertain times [01:09] Don’t make emotional financial decisions [07:02] Understanding the VIX Index [08:57] The nuanced story of oil prices and your portfolio [14:08] Impact of oil on investments [18:13] Why timing the market is hard [23:26] Staying disciplined during volatility Resources Mentioned VIX Volatility Products | Cboe Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment, or legal advice.

March 13, 202623 min

How Data, Discipline, and Human Ingenuity Shape Long-Term Wealth, Ep #267

In a world where gut instinct once ruled the day—from football coaches making pivotal fourth-down decisions to investors choosing their next stock pick—a revolution has reshaped the landscape: reliable data and analytics. Drawing inspiration from the principles behind the film Moneyball and a recent article by David Booth on 3 Lessons from Investing’s Moneyball Moment in Fortune magazine, I break down what a century of US stock market history reveals for everyday investors. Lesson 1. Insiders Aren’t Smarter Than Outsiders One of the key insights unearthed from this century’s worth of data is simple but profound: experts, or “insiders,” do not consistently outperform the market. Early research using the University of Chicago’s Center for Research on Security Prices (CRSP) data found that, on average, mutual funds and clever stock pickers failed to beat the simple strategy of buying and holding a diversified market portfolio. This led to the explosion of index funds, notably pioneered by Vanguard and enabled by firms like Dimensional. Now, anyone, not just Wall Street professionals, can own broad, low-cost portfolios and harness the long-term growth of the entire market rather than trying (and in most cases, failing) to outsmart it. Lesson 2. Bet on Human Ingenuity Human creativity and progress power the market’s reliable returns over the decades. Companies go public to raise money, which they funnel into improving their products and expanding their reach. Every day, millions of people at thousands of companies are seeking better ways to serve their customers and grow profits. When you invest in the stock market, you are ultimately betting on people’s ability to innovate and adapt to a changing world. This century-long experiment in collective growth has consistently delivered average returns of around 10% per year, a number that has survived wars, recessions, inflation spikes, and bubbles. Lesson 3. Investor Behavior Is Key If reams of data tell us anything, it is this: reliable, long-term returns belong to disciplined investors. The journey is never smooth—market downturns feel chaotic and alarming in the moment. Yet, $1,000 invested in 1926 would have grown to over $17 million by 2025, despite wars, crashes, and global crises. Most investors who stuck with the market over any 10- or 20-year span came out ahead. Stay disciplined, trust the data, and know that while the challenges may look different, the power of long-term, patient investing is timeless. Outline of This Episode [00:00] 100 years of market insights [03:14] Football transformed by data analytics [07:32] Moneyball, markets, and data [11:06] Insiders vs. outsiders on stocks [16:17] Human ingenuity in investing [17:26] Investing discipline drives long-term success Resources Mentioned Moneyball Synopsis 3 lessons from investing’s moneyball moment in Fortune University of Chicago’s Center for Research on Security Prices (CRSP) Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

February 13, 202623 min

Are We in an AI Bubble? And What That Means for Investors, Ep #266

Investors have short memories—until the talk of a “bubble” resurfaces. We take investors on a quick trip down memory lane, discussing the infamous dot-com bubble of the late ‘90s and early 2000s, as well as the housing bubbled that appeared a few years later. These bubbles were fueled by sky-high optimism and wild speculation about transformative technologies. In the dot-com era, investors rushed into any company with a “.com” at the end of its name, confident the internet would change the world. But not all of these companies survived. The lesson is that when a game-changing technology, or a new technology appears, you still have to do your due diligence to come out on top. The Age of AI: Bubble or Breakthrough? The “Magnificent Seven” (Google, Meta/Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft) are pouring billions into AI. Their 2025 returns, as catalogued by Scott Wellens, were impressive, with the group averaging over 20%, outperforming the S&P 500. Yet, such meteoric rises echo the euphoria of past bubbles. But excitement alone does not make a bubble—overvaluation does. Valuation: How Expensive is Too Expensive? A key measure is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a classic way to judge if a company’s stock price is justified by its profits. Take Tesla, for example: at the end of 2025, it traded at roughly $450 per share but earned only $1.50 per share, putting its P/E near 304. Compared to Toyota’s P/E of about 10, that is nosebleed territory. The S&P 500’s long-term average P/E sits around 20—a point of reference emphasizing just how stretched AI-heavy stocks may be. The Magnificent Seven’s average P/E now hovers around 68, more than triple the broader market’s historic average and well above the S&P’s “other 493” companies. While high valuations do not guarantee a crash, they signal that expectations are sky-high and that disappointment could be costly. Picking Winners, Dodging Losers You cannot invest in AI itself; you invest in companies riding the AI wave. History shows many will not make it. That is why betting everything on a few horses is extremely risky, even if their role in AI seems promising today. Over-concentration lurks as a hidden threat. If you own a standard S&P 500 index fund, 35% of your portfolio sits in the Magnificent Seven. For tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, that figure climbs to 54%. A stumble for these stars—already started in early 2025—can spell big trouble for portfolios tied too closely to their fortunes. The Case for Global Diversification So how can investors harness AI’s upside without exposing themselves to catastrophic risk? In a portfolio spanning thousands of companies worldwide across different sectors and asset classes, your exposure to the Magnificent Seven (and thus to AI) drops to about 20%. This cushions your wealth from the fallout if today’s leaders falter and gives you a stake in the next wave of winners, wherever they arise. This approach also positions you to benefit from asset classes that look attractive in the current environment. Small-cap and value stocks, as well as international and emerging markets, which are currently trading at lower valuations and are performing well. History shows that asset classes cycle in and out of favor. Diversification helps you ride out the storms and participate in future growth, whatever sector it comes from. Nobody can say with certainty whether we are flying high in an AI bubble or witnessing the birth of the next economic revolution. Instead of gambling on a forecast, smart investors build durable, globally diversified portfolios. That way, you are not only prepared for the promise of AI but also protected from the possibility of another bubble burst. Outline of This Episode [03:59] How bubbles in investing have formed in the past [05:09] The largest 7 companies in the United States believe that AI is the future [06:59] What price-to-earnings ratios reveal about AI-focused companies [10:18] Toyota vs. Tesla: An example valuation comparison [13:10] Should you invest in companies that use AI? [15:07] An S&P 500-only portfolio is not diversified [20:54] Diversify globally for the best chance of financial success Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.

January 16, 202626 min

Why Artificial Intelligence Can’t Replace Human Wisdom with Your Finances, Ep #265

AI is everywhere, from investing apps and portfolio tools to recipe planners and vacation organizers, artificial intelligence touches countless corners of our lives. In finance, AI promises accessibility. For newer investors, it is a way to learn basic concepts, compare traditional and Roth IRAs, or understand the difference between tax brackets, all delivered in plain English. AI is also a huge help with organization and financial efficiency. Need a budgeting framework or quick ways to categorize cash flow? AI can create those. It is a handy pocket assistant that helps you plan and ask sharper questions when evaluating financial advisors or planning your future. The Real Limitations of AI in Financial Planning While AI is a powerful tool, it is not a decision maker. Here are the big dangers and drawbacks you need to keep in mind: 1. Zero Personal Accountability AI does not bear the consequences of its advice. If it suggests an irreversible move, like a Roth IRA conversion, based on incomplete or incorrect information, the cost falls entirely on you. 2. Overconfidence in Precision AI delivers advice with absolute confidence, even when it is wrong! Financial planning is not just numbers, it is trade-offs, nuances, and judgment calls that factor in health, family dynamics, and personal emotional risk tolerance. 3. Struggles with Multi-Year Tax Planning Most AI tools treat tax decisions generically just one year at a time. But real retirement tax planning means looking ahead 10, 15, or 20 years. Missed integration here can cost you tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of dollars over a career or lifetime. 4. One-Dimensional Investment Advice AI assumes perfect discipline and zero life changes, no panic selling, no sudden need for funds. But human emotion, especially during retirement or volatile markets, often drives decisions. 5. False Sense of Security AI’s confident answers may mask underlying complexity. A small financial misstep, repeated or compounded over decades, can grow into a massive problem down the road. 6. Lack of Behavioral Guardrails Emotions play a huge role in retirement and investment decisions. Life throws curveballs—loss, illness, market downturns, and AI cannot reframe your fears or keep you disciplined when things get tough. When Human Wisdom Matters Most Retirement planning is not about finding simple answers, information is cheap, wisdom is not. For complex questions, AI offers basic options, but it cannot weigh the sequence of return risk, or policy changes in real time, like a qualified advisor can. Human advisors coordinate, prioritize, and apply experience to your financial life. They support you through market cycles, health challenges, and family transitions, and recognize when purely rational advice does not capture your real needs. Using AI Wisely My advice is to use AI for learning and organization, not for important, irreversible lifestyle and tax decisions. Always double-check its work, and do not outsource your financial future entirely to algorithms. Technology plus human judgment delivers the best outcomes. AI is a powerful tool, not a complete solution. Outline of This Episode 02:24 Best in Wealth Podcast future plans. 03:57 AI in daily life and finance. 04:51 Advantages of AI for do-it-yourself (DIY) investors. 08:08 Using AI for financial information. 12:29 Limitations and dangers of AI in financial planning. 16:57 Limits of AI financial planning. 19:30 No behavioral guardrails when it comes to your taxes. 25:43 If a decision affects your lifestyle for the rest of your life, don't outsource it to AI. Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with Scott Send a message to Scott Visit Fortress Planning Group Connect with Scott on LinkedIn Follow Scott on Twitter Fortress Planning Group on Facebook Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice. Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com