Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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Jul 2026

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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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July 24, 20265 min

A mild rise in tariffs in the US and its impact on SA agriculture

The U.S. government has raised tariffs against several countries under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, on the Acts, Policies, and Practices of 60 Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labour[1]. The South African government, private sector, and organised agriculture made submissions to the U.S. authorities against this rise in tariffs. But that message and clarification didn't find a fertile ear. •⁠ ⁠A rise in tariffs that South Africa faces in the U.S. from 10% to 12.5% is not ideal, but the agricultural sector could still do better given where we are coming from: a 30% tariff. Importantly, the US has raised tariffs for a range of countries, including some of South Africa's agricultural competitors, such as Australia, Peru, and Chile, which are also at these levels. Notably, oranges, fruit juices, and nuts are still exempt from these tariffs. •⁠ ⁠The U.S. remains an important market for South Africa’s agriculture, accounting for about 4% of our agricultural exports of US$15.1 billion in 2025. The main exported products include citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts. Wandile Sihlobo website

July 22, 20266 min

South Africa’s consumer food price inflation continues to slow

The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.4% in June 2026, from 1.6% in May. This is the lowest level since December 2010. Wandile Sihlobo website

July 21, 20263 min

Will El Niño drought hit food prices in South Africa? Earlier rains and grain stocks offer hope

The likely impact of the expected El Niño on South Africa’s agriculture and food prices in 2027 is a major point of discussion among analysts and economists in the country. By mid-2026, weather forecasts were signalling that the world was heading towards a severe El Niño. The El Niño weather phenomenon tends to have varying impacts on the many regions of the world. For southern Africa, it typically presents drought, which is negative for agricultural production. The arrival of the likely drought is due to coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season. In my work as an agricultural economist and visiting various farming regions across South Africa, I believe that in examining the likely impact of this El Niño on crop production and, subsequently, on consumer food price inflation, two major factors need to be considered. Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo website

July 13, 202610 min

South Africa’s maize harvest process is roughly 14% behind last year’s pace

The farmers have so far delivered 6.4 million tonnes of maize to commercial silos. This season is running 14% behind last season's pace. The delays in the start of the season and the longer rainfall period are among the key reasons for this. South Africa is poised to harvest an ample 17.25 million tonnes of maize, the largest harvest on record. Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo website

July 9, 20268 min

Renewed strikes in the Middle East present risks to farming input costs

On July 6, 206, I flagged in a note to the South African agribusinesses that we are beginning to see the benefits of the likely memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. aimed at ending the war on agricultural input prices. Fertiliser and fuel prices have declined notably from the levels we saw as recently as May 2026. That said, uncertainty remains, and it increasingly appears that the talks may end or be paused without a deal given the renewed strikes in the region. This once again presents the immense risk and uncertainty surrounding ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past few weeks, as the peace talks were progressing in a promising direction, we saw the benefits in the relief for fertiliser and fuel prices. The recent strikes introduce new risks to the likelihood of affordable fertiliser and fuel prices going forward, particularly if we see yet another holdup on ship movements in the region. There is considerable uncertainty now about how the neighbouring countries would react to these recent developments. From a South African perspective, we remain concerned that as the start of the 2026-27 season nears, the fuel and fertiliser prices mustn’t see another surge. South Africa is roughly three months away from the start of the 2026-27 summer crop season in mid-October 2026. Farmers typically place input orders well before the start of the season. Still, given that the current 2025-26 summer crop season is over a month late and maize harvest is still underway, the placement of input orders for the next season may also be slightly delayed. The combined cost of fuel and fertiliser typically accounts for around half of the input costs in field crops. Thus, we worry about the renewed war action, which presents risks to input prices. Having such a substantial share of input costs rising at a time when commodity prices were falling meant that some farmers would be in a tough financial corner. Already, the possibility of financial pressures led some people to question whether South African farmers would leave some land fallow for a season. Listen to the podcast for more. Wandile Sihlobo website

June 17, 20267 min

South Africa’s consumer food price inflation is at its lowest level in 17 months

South Africa’s consumer food price inflation continues to slow. The figures released by Statistics South Africa this morning show that the consumer food price inflation slowed to 1.6% in May 2026, down from 2.8% in March. This is the lowest level in 17 months. There was a broad deceleration across the various food products. At the core of moderating consumer food price inflation are lower prices for grains and oilseeds, fruit, and vegetables, driven by ample domestic and global supplies. We continue to believe that meat poses minimal risks to inflation, and meat price inflation has slowed in recent months. Base effects on meat prices, along with continued cattle slaughter, have helped ease price inflation. Poultry production conditions are also favourable. Wandile Sihlobo website

June 17, 202610 min

South Africa’s farming fortunes are positive at the start of 2026

The South African farming sector had a broadly positive start to 2026. This is notwithstanding the challenges posed by foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in the pig industry, and floods in the northeastern regions of South Africa at the start of the year. Still, higher economic activity across field crops and horticulture sufficiently supported growth in the sector. The figures released on June 9, 2026, by Statistics South Africa show that the country’s agricultural gross value added expanded by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2026, from a 0.4% in the last quarter of 2025. These robust growth figures also align with the strong trade figures for the first quarter. For example, in the first quarter of 2026, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$3.7 billion, up 11% from the same period a year ago, according to data from Trade Map. Better exports were a function of both higher export volumes across various products and higher commodity prices. Listen to the podcast for more context and the outlook for the year. Wandile Sihlobo website

May 20, 20267 min

Recent floods are another headwind for South Africa’s agricultural growth

We are likely in another year of mixed fortunes in South Africa’s agriculture. At an aggregate level, we believe that the sector is likely to see some growth this year. However, the subsector view will show significant divergence, as various parts of the sector face an array of pressures. One of these is the ongoing spread of animal diseases, which remains a big risk for livestock farmers. Another source of strain is the recent floods, which will put pressure on some industries. That said, conditions remain favourable for some subsectors. Listen to the note for broad reflections. Listen to the podcast for more information. Richard Humphries, Sam Mkokeli, Nelisiwe Tshabalala, and Aamanda Murimba produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

May 12, 20266 min

South Africa’s agriculture starts the year with strong jobs gains, but there are risks ahead

The South African agricultural sector continues to create more jobs. In the first quarter of 2026, farm jobs increased by 3% from the same period a year earlier to 960k jobs (up by 1% from the last quarter of 2025). This uptick in agricultural employment is unsurprising as the sector has generally enjoyed favourable production conditions in 2025 through to the start of this year. The industries that have faced challenges are beef, dairy, and pork producers due to foot-and-mouth disease, and the pork industry due to African swine fever. Other subsectors have generally experienced favourable production conditions, partly due to La Niña-induced rains and the expansion of agricultural activity. The provinces that have shown annual job growth are the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Free State, North West, and Limpopo. The job gains in these provinces helped to overshadow the decline registered in other provinces of the country. But going into 2027, there are risks ahead. The higher input costs, fuel and fertiliser, because of the Middle East war, along with expected El Niño drought, are some of the risks that could weigh on the sector and on employment conditions from now on. Listen to the podcast for more information. Wandile Sihlobo website

May 11, 20267 min

South Africa sees strong agricultural machinery sales in April, but the path ahead is uncertain

Agricultural machinery sales remain robust in South Africa, supported by orders some farmers likely placed before the current global challenges. The farmers’ finances over the past few months were boosted by the ample harvest in the 2024-25 season, on the back of beneficial La Niña rains. Therefore, in our interpretation of these recent sales, we ought to be careful not to view the data as an indication that the agricultural sector is unaffected by rising input costs, lower agricultural commodity prices, and lingering uncertainty about the weather outlook heading into the 2026-27 season. In April, tractor sales totalled 548 units, up 4% from the same period a year ago, according to data from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association. The combine harvest sales amounted to 52 units, up by 13% from April 2025. This uptick in sales comes after a slight slump in March 2026 sales, a change from a 14-month period of strong tractor sales on the back of better harvests in the past few seasons. But the path ahead is uncertain. We explain more in here. Wandile Sihlobo website