Wheat Market Outlook

Hosted by Sask Wheat

Business

Website RSS feed

Episodes

279

Latest episode

Aug 2026

Language

EN-CA

About the show

Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

Listen to episodes

60 recent

September 8, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - September 8, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone, but Western Canadian harvest quality is becoming an increasingly important source of direction. Widespread Prairie rainfall arrived with a large share of the spring wheat crop still standing, raising the risk of overall grading issues including sprouting, falling-number issues and a wider grade spread if harvest delays persist. A meaningful deterioration in No. 1 and No. 2 CWRS availability could tighten the pool of exportable high-quality wheat and provide additional support to premiums even if overall production remains respectable. Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping disruptions continue to underpin futures, although diplomatic regional powers are helping in negotiating some resolutions to the conflict. Stronger crop update from Australia ABARES provided a bit of a bearish offset although the increase in crop size estimates was largely expected, while U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally been respectable. Over the next one to two weeks, Canadian protein, test weight, grade distribution and harvest progress should become increasingly representative and could have a larger influence on market direction than headline yield estimates alone. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum quality risk has moved to the forefront following widespread Prairie rainfall with a large share of the Western Canadian crop still standing. If prolonged harvest delays result in lower test weight, sprouting or a larger-than-expected share of No. 3 or lower and feed-quality durum, the market could tighten quickly for exportable No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD and materially shift otherwise comfortable durum fundamentals. For now, smaller North American production continues to be offset by improved crops and weaker import requirements across North Africa and Turkey, with IGC forecasting global production near 38.9 MMT and world trade at a five-year low. Early Saskatchewan yield indications have been coming in but from a relatively small sample size leaves us wanting to see a few more yield reports yet. Grade distribution and protein will be the key variables over the next two weeks. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

August 31, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - August 31, 2026

Market Outlook – Wheat Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone after another strong move higher, although some of the recent geopolitical premium is being tested by reports that Turkey is working on a possible Black Sea grain corridor. Physical shipping disruptions through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov remain significant, while the broader global balance continues to tighten as major-exporter stocks decline. This is being partly offset by stronger crops in Turkey and North Africa and improving Australian production prospects. In North America, U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally remained respectable, while Canadian harvest is beginning to accelerate after a slower-than-normal start. HRS wheat and durum yield, protein and grade results should become increasingly representative over the next one to two weeks, making western Canadian harvest results a major source of direction. Near-term upside will depend on whether Black Sea disruptions persist, while improving Canadian harvest progress and any meaningful improvement in export logistics could return some pressure to futures. Market Outlook – Durum Durum markets remain largely rangebound, with smaller North American crops continuing to be offset by improved production and weaker import requirements across North Africa and Turkey. IGC forecasts global durum production at 38.9 MMT, including approximately 6.3 MMT in Canada and 1.8 MMT in the U.S., both below last year, but stronger crops in Morocco, Algeria and Turkey are expected to push world trade to a five-year low. Western Canadian harvest is beginning to advance after a slow start, and durum yield, protein, test weight and grade results should become increasingly representative over the next one to two weeks. With major exporter stocks still relatively tight, disappointing Canadian quality or yields could strengthen premiums, but a solid Prairie harvest combined with subdued importer demand would likely keep values contained in the near term. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

August 24, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - August 24, 2026

Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone as tightening supplies among major exporters and continued disruption to Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping provide support. The latest IGC outlook points to smaller crops across Canada, the U.S., Europe and Australia, while major exporter wheat stocks are expected to fall sharply year-over-year. This is being partly offset by larger crops in North Africa and Turkey. In North America, early U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally been respectable, while Canadian harvest remains in the early stages with producers still focused largely on peas, lentils and barley. HRS wheat and durum harvest should begin making more meaningful progress this week, making Canadian yield, protein and quality results increasingly important. Near-term direction will largely depend on whether Black Sea disruptions persist and whether Canadian harvest results confirm current production expectations, with advancing harvest pressure likely to limit upside if both develop favourably. Market Outlook - Durum Durum markets remain relatively rangebound, with tighter North American production being offset by larger crops and weaker import demand anticipated across North Africa and Turkey. IGC now forecasts global durum production at 38.9 MMT, down 0.6 MMT from July, including 6.3 MMT in Canada and 1.8 MMT in the U.S., both lower year-over-year. However, improved crops in Morocco, Algeria and Turkey are expected to reduce global trade the lowest in five years, limiting the need for aggressive importer buying. Western Canadian harvest remains in the very early stages, with producers still focused largely on peas, lentils and barley, but durum harvest should begin making more meaningful progress this week. Yield, protein, test weight and grade distribution will become increasingly important, particularly as major-exporter durum stocks remain relatively tight despite comfortable global inventories. Disappointing Canadian yields or quality could strengthen premiums, while a solid Prairie harvest combined with subdued North African demand would likely keep prices contained for the time being. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

August 17, 202613 min

Wheat Market Outlook - August 17, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone as Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping disruptions continue to add risk to global trade, while North American harvest begins to provide a clearer picture of actual production. Early U.S. spring wheat results have generally been respectable, limiting concern despite weaker late-season crop ratings. Canadian harvest is just beginning, with more consistent yield and quality reports expected over the next ten days as relatively dry weather returns across much of the southern Prairies following weekend rainfall. European wheat losses are increasingly understood by the market, while recent Australian rainfall has reduced some immediate production risk. Overall, harvest pressure should become more influential as supplies move into commercial channels, but continued Black Sea disruptions or disappointing North American yield and quality results could provide further support. AAFC’s August 20 outlook and early Canadian harvest results will be the next important sources of direction or if there are any meaningful changes to the Sea of Asov / Black Sea situation. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum markets remain largely rangebound, although the North American supply outlook has become somewhat more supportive. USDA now estimates U.S. durum production at 66.4 million bushels, down 23 per cent from last year. Canadian production prospects remain comparatively favourable, keeping broader supply concerns limited for now. Western Canadian harvest is just beginning, and more consistent durum yield and quality reports should emerge over the next ten days as harvesters move through southern areas. The market will be particularly focused on protein, test weight and grade distribution. Softer North African import demand continues to limit upside, but disappointing Canadian yields or quality could quickly strengthen premiums as harvest progresses. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

August 10, 202612 min

Wheat Market Outlook - August 10, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week under continued harvest pressure, although Black Sea shipping disruptions and tightening North American production risks are providing some underlying support. U.S. spring wheat conditions remain mixed, with national ratings holding relatively well but North Dakota spring wheat and durum conditions deteriorating under recent heat. Western Canadian crops remain favourable overall but increasingly variable, with declining soil moisture across many areas. European harvest results continue to confirm the heat-related yield losses, while Australian rainfall forecasts will be closely watched. Canada begins the new crop year following another record export campaign, but a smaller anticipated crop should limit available tonnage. Wednesday’s USDA WASDE and early harvest results will be the next major sources of direction. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum markets remain largely rangebound as smaller North American acreage is balanced by generally favourable crop prospects and softer North African demand expectations. However, recent heat has added some production risk, with North Dakota durum conditions deteriorating and later-planted fields showing greater stress. Southern Prairie heat and declining soil moisture are also creating some concern towards the tail end of the year. The Canadian crop will begin to come off in the coming weeks, and we will be looking forwards to seeing initial crop quality and yield prospects. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

August 4, 202610 min

Wheat Market Outlook - August 4, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week under harvest and liquidation pressure despite continued Black Sea shipping risk. U.S. spring wheat conditions improved to 55 per cent good-to-excellent, while European production estimates were reduced following hot, dry weather. Western Canadian cereal crops remain favourable overall but increasingly variable, with heat and declining soil moisture creating grain-fill risk across southern areas and disease and quality concerns remaining in wetter northern and eastern regions. Rain would still be welcomed in a few regions to support test weight before maturity advances. Canada is beginning the new crop year following another record wheat export campaign, although repeating that pace will be difficult with less production anticipated. Producers priced some wheat into the recent rally, but uncertainty around grade and quality continues to limit aggressive forward sales. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum markets remain largely rangebound as smaller North American acreage is offset by generally favourable crop prospects and softer North African import demand. Larger harvests in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia are expected to reduce nearby purchasing, while improving U.S. spring wheat conditions and respectable northern Plains yield expectations have limited production concern. Southern Prairie heat and declining soil moisture are creating some grain-fill and kernel-weight risk, but broader crop conditions remain favourable. The larger uncertainty is final Canadian grade and quality, which is keeping producers cautious about committing additional high-grade durum before harvest. Prices will likely remain muted unless Canadian or U.S. production disappoints, quality problems emerge or North African demand returns sooner than expected. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

July 27, 202612 min

Wheat Market Outlook - July 27, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week balancing ongoing Black Sea shipping risk against advancing harvest pressure and weaker outside markets. The sinking of a grain cargo ship near Odesa reinforced concerns over export reliability, while Russia’s efforts to reroute Sea of Azov grain could strain rail and portcapacity. U.S. spring wheat conditions declined to 53 per centgood-to-excellent, although the crop tour’s 48-bushel-per-acre estimate suggested respectable yield potential. Western Canadian crops remain favourable overall but are uneven, with localized flooding losses, rising disease concerns and warmer, drier grain-fill weather. European yield estimates were reduced again, though still near average. Sustained upside likely requires prolonged Black Sea disruption, further crop deterioration or stronger export demand. Producers will need to balance profitable forward sales while understandingpreharvest grade risks. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM Durum markets remain largely rangebound as smaller North American acreage is offset by generally favourable crop conditions and softer North African demand. Canadian exports remain near last year’s pace, but larger harvests in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia are expected to reduce near-term imports. Prices will likely remain muted into early winter unless production or quality concerns emerge in Canada or the northern U.S. Plains. Our updated Canadian durumsupply-and-disposition estimates are provided below. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

July 20, 202610 min

Wheat Market Outlook - July 20, 2026

Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets enter the week trading Black Sea shipping disruptions, reduced European production expectations and perception of tightening global ending stocks, although favourable initial harvest results in Russia and eastern Ukraine continue to limit the upside. Restrictions through the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait added a logistical risk premium during last week’s rally, while the strike on a merchant vessel near Odessa reinforced concerns around Black Sea export reliability. June heat also reduced wheat yield potential across parts of western and central Europe, prompting haircuts to EU production estimates. The July IGC report left global wheat production unchanged near 821 MMT and ending stocks slightly down near 279 MMT. Attention now turns to this week’s U.S. spring wheat tour for updated yield indications across the northern Plains. Western Canadian conditions remain favourable in general, but uneven, with excessive moisture creating localized acreage and yield losses across eastern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Alberta, while stronger crops are developing across much of the southern and western Prairies. Market Outlook - Durum Durum markets remain largely rangebound as smaller North American acreage is being offset by generally favourable crop conditions and softer import demand expectations from North Africa. The USDA and Statistics Canada acreage reports confirmed reduced durum area, but the cuts were widely anticipated and did not materially tighten the market outlook. Moisture across the northern U.S. Plains and the Canadian Prairies has generally supported yield potential, with Saskatchewan and Alberta durum conditions remaining favourable overall despite localized excess moisture concerns. Canadian durum exports through Week 49 reached 5.44 MMT, only 1 per cent below last year, showing that demand has remained steady into the end of the current crop year. However, larger North African harvests are expected to reduce near-term import requirements from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. A strong Western Canadian crop would likely keep prices muted into early winter, with the next meaningful direction dependent on final Canadian and U.S. production, quality results and the outlook for the next North African growing season. Our updated Canadian durum supply-and-disposition estimates are provided below. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

July 13, 20269 min

Wheat Market Outlook - July 13, 2026

Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets are focused on the following factors to begin the week: The Western Canadian crop, shipping disruptions through the Sea of Azov, and the smaller global ending stocks reported in the latest USDA update. Excess moisture across parts of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and northern Alberta is creating uncertainty around eventual acreage and yield losses, although cereals such as wheat, durum and oats are generally faring better than canola and pulses, while some strong crops are developing across the southern Prairies. Restrictions affecting grain movement through the Kerch Strait and Sea of Azov have added a logistical risk premium to wheat, but expectations for a promising Black Sea harvest continue to limit the upside if shipping disruptions do not persist. European heat has increasingly become a corn and summer-crop story, while U.S. heat is supporting corn and soybeans on fields that entered the period with generally adequate moisture, leaving wheat more likely to follow any broader corn rally in the near term. Prairie producers should use improvements in local basis or futures to finish old-crop wheat sales and create space before new-crop supplies begin arriving for the upcoming harvest, while remaining patient on stronger new-crop commitments until the Western Canadian production outlook becomes clearer. Market Outlook - Durum The durum outlook remains mostly flat. The USDA Acreage Report and Statistics Canada acreage estimates confirmed smaller North American durum area, but the reductions were broadly anticipated and did not provide a major shock to the market. The northern U.S. durum region and Canadian prairies durum region has received generally favourable moisture, supporting crop prospects and limiting immediate production concerns. At the same time, large harvests across North Africa are expected to reduce import demand from Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria, with purchasing likely to reflect the greater domestic supplies available in those countries. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum values muted into early winter, at least until the market gains a clearer understanding of U.S. durum supplies and the production outlook for the next North African crop. Our updated Canadian durum supply-and-disposition estimates are provided below. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

July 6, 202612 min

Wheat Market Outlook - July 6, 2026

Market Outlook – Wheat Some weather stories are showing themselves across the global wheat production regions but not enough to get markets overly excited. We have the EU heatwave which is turning into more of a corn story than a wheat story, we have the U.S. heatwave this week but on fields that have received ample rainfall and we have the Western Canadian flooding story that is yet to be fully understood how that will shake out in terms of acreage loss. The Black Sea wheat harvest is expected to be quite promising, and markets are in general satisfied with the current position of crops. Wheat has benefited today from the rise in corn values for the session and wheat markets would be more likely to ride the coattails of any Midwest corn story for the short term. Old crop wheat sales for prairie producers will need to be wrapped up to make room for the new crop coming online in 6-7 weeks. Producers should take advantage of any local bumps in basis and futures to ease out the old crop. We are still waiting to see how the new crop shapes up before making any strong commitments. Market Outlook – Durum Durum outlook remains mostly flat. The USDA Acreage report and Stats Canada report did not provide much of a shock of the market as acreage cuts were anticipated, but how much was the question. U.S. northern durum region has been getting good moisture. North African harvest is large and import demand is going to directly reflect the larger supplies available to Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest or depending on U.S. durum supplies moving forwards. Updated Supply and Disposition estimates below. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/