Wheat Market Outlook

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290

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Nov 2026

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About the show

Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

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November 9, 202612 min

Wheat Market Outlook - November 9, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures remain under pressure as improving Southern Hemisphere production prospects and expectations for some recovery in Russian export capacity continue to outweigh stronger demand signals. U.S. export sales have improved, but physical shipments remain weak, while Canadian wheat exports continue running ahead of last year. Stronger Western Canadian basis levels have helped cushion some of the decline in cash prices as futures retreat. With Prairie harvest complete, attention is shifting toward final crop quality and export movement. We encourage producers to have representative samples tested and place cash-sale targets that fit their cost of production, cashflow and winter logistics. Quality premiums and competitive basis levels may provide opportunities even without a broad futures recovery. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum remains cautiously constructive as strong Canadian exports continue drawing down commercial inventories while producer deliveries lag last year. Global durum supplies are somewhat larger, limiting expectations for a broad rally, but crop quality remains a key uncertainty. Preliminary CGC results place approximately 51 per cent of durum samples in the top two grades, with average protein near 13.2 per cent, below last year's 14.7 per cent. Canadian durum exports are approximately 42 per cent ahead of last year, helping absorb available supplies. We encourage producers to test protein, test weight and overall grade before pricing, while closely comparing buyer-specific premiums and delivery opportunities. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

November 2, 202612 min

Wheat Market Outlook - November 2, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures remain under pressure as improving Southern Hemisphere production prospects and the potential for some recovery in Russian export capacity continue to offset stronger demand signals. U.S. export sales improved sharply last week to nearly 850,000 tonnes, but physical shipments remain weak, while Canadian wheat exports continue to run well ahead of last year. With Prairie harvest essentially complete, attention is increasingly shifting toward final crop quality and export movements. We encourage producers to have representative samples tested and begin placing cash-sale targets that fit cost of production, cashflow and winter logistics. Our outlook remains cautiously optimistic for Canadian cash wheat values, particularly where stronger grade, protein, falling number and other quality characteristics attract premiums. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM The durum market remains cautiously constructive as strong Canadian exports continue to draw down commercial inventories while producer deliveries remain well behind last year. Crop-year durum exports are approximately 49 per cent ahead of last year, while preliminary CGC grading results place roughly 54 per cent of submitted samples in the top two grades, with average protein near 13.1 per cent. At the same time, overall Canadian and global supplies remain adequate, limiting expectations for a broad market rally. We encourage producers to test protein, test weight, and overall grade before pricing, while closely comparing buyer-specific premiums and delivery opportunities. Higher-quality No. 1 and No. 2 durum may see some of the better marketing opportunities as exporters work to secure grain meeting specific milling requirements. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

October 26, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - October 26, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures remain under pressure from weak U.S. export demand and larger corn inventories, although strong Canadian exports and continued Black Sea disruptions are supporting the physical market. With harvest nearly complete, attention is shifting toward final crop quality and potential milling wheat premiums. We encourage producers to have representative samples tested to identify marketing opportunities. Once quality is known, producers should begin to place targets for cash grain sales that fit their cost of production, cashflow and logistics timelines as we get into prime grain hauling months. Our outlook remains cautiously optimistic for Canadian cash wheat values, particularly for higher-quality supplies. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum markets remain supported by strong Canadian export movement, currently more than 68 per cent ahead of last year, alongside increasing evidence of variable crop quality. Preliminary grading results now place just 58.7 per cent of sampled durum in the top two grades, as buyers assess available inventories. However, global supplies remain relatively comfortable, and projected Canadian ending stocks are still above last year's levels, limiting expectations for a broad market rally. We encourage producers to test protein, test weight and HVK before selling, while carefully comparing buyer-specific premiums and delivery opportunities. Our outlook remains cautiously constructive, particularly for higher-quality No. 1 and No. 2 durum. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar

October 19, 202612 min

Wheat Market Outlook - October 19, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures remain under pressure from weak U.S. export demand and larger corn inventories, although strong Canadian exports and continued Black Sea disruptions are supporting the physical market. With harvest nearly complete, attention is shifting toward final crop quality and potential milling wheat premiums. We encourage producers to have representative samples tested to identify marketing opportunities. Once quality is known, producers should begin to place targets for cash grain sales that fit their cost of production, cashflow and logistics timelines as we get into prime grain hauling months. Our outlook remains cautiously optimistic for Canadian cash wheat values, particularly for higher-quality supplies. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM The durum market remains focused on quality, with Canadian exports well ahead of last year and St. Lawrence values strengthening toward USD $335/t. Although global supplies remain comfortable, variable grading could support premiums for higher-quality milling durum. We encourage producers to test protein, test weight and HVK before selling. Our outlook remains cautiously constructive. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

October 13, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - October 13, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat futures continue to struggle for sustained upside following Friday's USDA WASDE, which highlighted weaker U.S. export demand and larger corn inventories. However, the physical market remains more encouraging, with Canadian wheat exports running well ahead of last year and ongoing Black Sea disruptions creating opportunities for competing exporters. With Western Canadian harvest nearing completion, attention is shifting toward final grain quality and the availability of milling-grade wheat and durum. We encourage producers to have representative samples tested so we can identify appropriate marketing opportunities, particularly where falling number, protein or grading discounts may influence returns. Our outlook remains cautiously optimistic toward Canadian cash wheat markets, Canadian export demand, Black Sea developments and emerging quality premiums will be key factors to monitor in the weeks ahead. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum markets remain focused on quality, with Canadian exports running more than 80 per cent ahead of last year and St. Lawrence export values strengthening toward USD $335/t. While global supplies remain comfortable, uncertainty surrounding Canadian grade distribution could support premiums for higher-quality milling durum. We encourage producers to test samples for protein, test weight and HVK before committing sales. Our outlook remains cautiously constructive, with export demand, final grading results and potential quality premiums being the key factors to watch. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

October 5, 202610 min

Wheat Market Outlook - October 5, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week with futures still struggling to build sustained upside, despite a somewhat more supportive physical backdrop. Canadian exports continue to run at a strong pace, while Black Sea logistics remain disrupted and uncertainty persists around the quality of the later-harvested Western Canadian crop. Harvest progress has improved substantially with drier weather, and many producers are now finishing or nearing completion, but the final distribution of grade, falling number, test weight and protein remains important. Producers are encouraged to have representative wheat samples tested as early as possible so we can identify the appropriate marketing programs and advance sales where opportunities exist. This is particularly important when building wheat into the overall farm marketing plan: cash-flow requirements, bin space and delivery logistics all need to be considered alongside opportunities in canola, pulses and other crops. Lower falling-number or downgraded wheat may need to fit into different end-user programs. Black Sea developments, Canadian quality results, export demand and Friday’s USDA WASDE will be the key market drivers this week. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM The durum market remains focused on quality and grade distribution. Overall, global durum supplies remain relatively comfortable, but uncertainty around the Canadian harvest has begun to create stronger interest in higher-quality milling durum, with St. Lawrence export values recently moving towards $335 as the export quote vs $300 early September. As more samples are graded, the spread between premium No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD and lower-quality supplies could become increasingly important. Producers with durum should test samples early and market higher-quality grain consciously rather than treating all durum inventory the same. Knowing protein, test weight, HVK and grade will help determine whether durum should be moved quickly for cash flow and logistics, placed into a specific buyer program, or held for potential quality premiums. With opportunities developing across several major Western Canadian crops, understanding exactly what quality is in the bin will be important in determining which commodity should be marketed next. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

September 28, 202610 min

Wheat Market Outlook - September 28, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week under continued futures pressure despite a supportive physical backdrop. Black Sea exports remain heavily disrupted but growing diplomatic efforts toward a maritime truce are removing some geopolitical premium as the market weighs how quickly Russian export capacity could return. Western Canadian harvest remains well behind normal, although improved weather should allow strong progress this week, with grade and quality still the larger concern after earlier rainfall. At the same time, weak U.S. export demand and improving Australian production continue to limit upside. Black Sea negotiations, Canadian harvest quality and Wednesday’s USDA Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports will be the major sources of direction this week. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM The durum wheat market remains increasingly focused on quality rather than outright supply. Canada still carries relatively comfortable overall inventories, and global durum production is projected at a record level, limiting concerns around an outright shortage. However, Prairie harvest delays and quality deterioration have increased uncertainty around the availability of No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD, and Canadian domestic values for higher grades are beginning to reflect that tighter quality outlook. As more of the later-harvested crop is graded, widening spreads between premium milling durum and downgraded supplies could become an increasingly important market feature. Near-term direction will depend heavily on final Canadian grade distribution, export demand and how aggressively importers pursue higher-quality supplies. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

September 21, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - September 21, 2026

Market Outlook - Wheat Wheat markets enter the week with geopolitical risk becoming an increasingly important source of support following the major Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow over the weekend and continued disruption to Black Sea shipping. Lower Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts are tightening readily available export supplies despite relatively comfortable global production. In Western Canada, Statistics Canada estimated the wheat crop at 36.1 MMT, but attention has shifted firmly toward quality as persistent rainfall continues to delay Prairie harvest and increase sprouting, test-weight and grade concerns. Saskatchewan remains only 32 per cent harvested versus the five-year average of 71 per cent. Black Sea developments and Canadian harvest quality will remain the major sources of direction this week. Market Outlook - Durum The durum market also remains increasingly focused on quality rather than outright production. Canada entered the crop year with a relatively comfortable 1.1 MMT of carry-in stocks, which limits concerns around an outright shortage. However, recent rainfall across major durum-growing regions has increased uncertainty around the percentage of the crop that will ultimately grade No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD. If additional downgrading is confirmed as harvest progresses, stronger premiums could develop for higher-quality durum even if total Canadian production remains adequate. Near-term direction will depend heavily on final grade. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/ Read the full report: https://saskwheat.ca/wheat-market-outlook/wheat-market-outlook-september-21-2026/

September 14, 202613 min

Wheat Market Outlook - September 14, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT The latest WASDE increased global wheat production and ending stocks, but lower Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts, continue to tighten the outlook for readily available exportable wheat supplies. In Western Canada, the focus is increasingly shifting from total production toward grade, with recent rainfall raising quality concerns. A good stretch of warm, dry weather could still allow Prairie harvest to advance quickly, but further delays would increase quality risk. Statistics Canada’s production estimate, Canadian harvest progress and developments around Black Sea shipping are likely to drive direction this week. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM The durum market also remains increasingly focused on quality rather than outright production. Canada entered the crop year with a relatively comfortable 1.1 MMT of carry-in stocks, which limits concerns around an outright shortage. However, recent rainfall across major durum-growing regions has increased uncertainty around the percentage of the crop that will ultimately grade No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD. If additional downgrading is confirmed as harvest progresses, stronger premiums could develop for higher-quality durum even if total Canadian production remains adequate. Near-term direction will depend heavily on final grade. If readers are interested in a comprehensive list of global report calendar. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

September 8, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - September 8, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets enter the week with a firmer underlying tone, but Western Canadian harvest quality is becoming an increasingly important source of direction. Widespread Prairie rainfall arrived with a large share of the spring wheat crop still standing, raising the risk of overall grading issues including sprouting, falling-number issues and a wider grade spread if harvest delays persist. A meaningful deterioration in No. 1 and No. 2 CWRS availability could tighten the pool of exportable high-quality wheat and provide additional support to premiums even if overall production remains respectable. Black Sea and Sea of Azov shipping disruptions continue to underpin futures, although diplomatic regional powers are helping in negotiating some resolutions to the conflict. Stronger crop update from Australia ABARES provided a bit of a bearish offset although the increase in crop size estimates was largely expected, while U.S. spring wheat harvest results have generally been respectable. Over the next one to two weeks, Canadian protein, test weight, grade distribution and harvest progress should become increasingly representative and could have a larger influence on market direction than headline yield estimates alone. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Durum quality risk has moved to the forefront following widespread Prairie rainfall with a large share of the Western Canadian crop still standing. If prolonged harvest delays result in lower test weight, sprouting or a larger-than-expected share of No. 3 or lower and feed-quality durum, the market could tighten quickly for exportable No. 1 and No. 2 CWAD and materially shift otherwise comfortable durum fundamentals. For now, smaller North American production continues to be offset by improved crops and weaker import requirements across North Africa and Turkey, with IGC forecasting global production near 38.9 MMT and world trade at a five-year low. Early Saskatchewan yield indications have been coming in but from a relatively small sample size leaves us wanting to see a few more yield reports yet. Grade distribution and protein will be the key variables over the next two weeks. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/