Wheat Market Outlook

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268

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Jun 2026

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Sask Wheat's weekly wheat market outlook analyzes domestic and global factors that impact wheat prices and market access for Saskatchewan wheat producers. As of Aug. 5, 2025, Ty Kehrig and Derek Squair of Exceed Grain Marketing provide a weekly report of the wheat market summary.

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June 15, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - June 15, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEATThe market is generally satisfied with the Canadian and global crop for now. Limited drought or general weather concerns for most of the Canadian Prairies. The market is pricing in good supply for the upcoming Canadian crop despite the challenges being noted in east central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba production regions. Peace region of Alberta has been on the dry side, and we need to keep focus on this area as well. The crop is still very early in Western Canada and needs to get through the next six to eight weeks of weather. We will have a Canadian acreage report on June 30, 2026, which will be highly anticipated by the markets as it gives the trade some fresh fundamentals to place positions on. Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures have been subject to fund repositioning since mid-May as the market became comfortable with crop production potential. The EU crop is largely understood, and the Black Sea crops are closer to being made than not. The market will maintain focus on these regions as they get closer to harvest but the focus will be on Canadian, Northern U.S., Argentinian and Australian growing conditions from here on out as those crops have the most growing season ahead of them yet. We would anticipate flat wheat markets for the time being and a weather event will be the catalyst to move the wheat futures markets.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUMDurum outlook remains mostly flat. Saskatchewan durum is currently rated 90 per cent good-to-excellent in the last report, which keeps the market comfortable with Canadian crop prospects for now. The U.S. durum region listed with 55 per cent of the crop area now listed in drought, 55 per cent last week and 41 per cent the year prior. Morocco placed 170 per cent durum import tariff from June 1, 2026, until the end of July is also a negative demand factor, as it will support local marketing of their large harvest and limit nearby import demand and a signal of the large Northern African harvest overall. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest. Limited upside seen at this time. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

June 8, 202612 min

Wheat Market Outlook - June 8, 2026

Market Outlook - WheatWheat markets saw a major selloff this past week as fund selling accelerated and removed a large amount of weather risk premium from the market. Funds added 39,165 contracts to their Chicago wheat short position, one of the fastest repositioning moves on record. U.S. new crop wheat export sales are also running 26 per cent below last year, with markets concerned that U.S. wheat values were overvalued compared to global competitors. With European and Black Sea wheat harvest moving closer, the market is starting to price in more nearby global wheat availability. The market is generally satisfied with the Canadian crop for now. Saskatchewan spring wheat and durum are both rated 90 per cent good-to-excellent, while Alberta moisture conditions are 79 per cent good-to-excellent. Manitoba rainfall has been adequate to excessive in the past week. The moisture is there for a crop in much of the Prairies, too much in some areas and delays will be the concern for the time being. The USDA report will be out Thursday, June 11, 2026, but we would not expect major production changes yet. Demand revisions will be the item to watch. For wheat to build a stronger rally, the market likely needs a fresh weather issue or stronger export demand. Producers should view any bounce as a chance to reassess old crop cleanup and new crop positioning as their crop advances.Market Outlook - DurumThe durum outlook remains mostly flat. Saskatchewan durum is currently rated 90 per cent good to excellent, which keeps the market comfortable with Canadian crop prospects for now. The main Canadian dryness concern remains Regina south, where a large share of durum acres are located. Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba have moved to the other side of the issue, with heavy rains and concerns around spraying delays, but less of a durum acreage bias in the areas with the too wet issue. The U.S. durum region listed with 55per cent of the crop area now listed in drought, up from 42 per cent last week and 41 per cent the week prior. Montana did receive some rain over the past 72 hours, so this will reduce the area slightly for the next report. Montana’s rains ranging from three-tenths to 2 inches, which should help in some areas. Morocco placed 170 per cent durum import tariff from June 1, 2026t until the end of July is also a negative demand factor, as it will support local marketing of their large harvest and limit nearby import demand. Canadian durum exports remain 1 per cent ahead of last year’s pace, but stronger North African production keeps the demand outlook cautious. A large Western Canadian crop would keep durum markets muted into early winter at least until we have an idea on what prospects are for the next North African crop harvest. Limited upside seen at this time.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

June 1, 202610 min

Wheat Market Outlook - June 1, 2026

Market Outlook - WheatWheat markets faded over the past week, but we are just getting into the spring wheat growing season in North America. We will have the first USDA Crop Progress report for the U.S. spring wheat, corn, soybeans, barley and corn crop this year which will be released today (Monday), after the market close. The market will use today's figures as a benchmark for the ongoing weeks. The initial reports provide the markets with a bit of fundamental news to chew on for the remainder of the week and generally set the tone for the first part of the week’s trade. The market will trade North American weather markets heavily here in the coming weeks. Producers should look at positioning both old crop and new crop sales on any spike in the market here as the time horizon to clean up old crop wheat in the next two months prior to the new crop harvest coming online. Producers looking for cashflow off the combine will want to be sure they have proper positioning for the harvest window. The market right now is satisfied with how the Canadian crop is looking in general. There are some problem areas and some delayed areas, but in markets, they look at total tonnage available to them from a region, and a good majority of the Canadian Prairies will be sitting fine for moisture. This changes week by week but for now, a good portion of central Alberta and central Manitoba is forecasted for rains in the next five days, we will see what falls vs forecasted. Market Outlook - DurumMinimal change from last weeks’ durum outlook. Canadian durum export expectations dropped to 5.15 million tonnes compared to 5.5 million tonnes last year and 5.6 million tonnes the year prior by the IGC in their monthly report this past week, as stronger North African production is expected to reduce import demand into key Canadian export markets later this season. Price outlooks will be dependent upon the Canadian crop. Some dryness concerns in south central Saskatchewan and limited rainfall during the next ten days will be one to watch for the crop. The region has been in a dry bias and no real precipitation in the forecast. Many private estimates have the Canadian crop down about 1MMT year-over-year on less acres and yield. The crop is on the tail end of planting and would largely be considered planted. North America will be the key card to the durum market. A large Western Canadian crop will keep markets muted into early fall. Markets anticipated to be flat for both old crop and new crop and will remain so unless any market news develops from the North American crop. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

May 25, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - May 25, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT Markets are getting an initial understanding on how the northern hemisphere crop is beginning to shape up. The market traded the prior few weeks with the understanding that the U.S. winter wheat crop conditions were dropping. With the finalization of the U.S. winter wheat tours, the cropharvest has officially begun. The crop is 5 per cent harvested in Texas and just beginning in Oklahoma and Kansas. The initial yield reports are coming in with a range of 15 bushels per acre to 50 bpa. The U.S. spring wheat crop is 73 per cent planted, the Canadian spring wheat crop will be approaching half to just over half planted. The markets are beginning to understand where the problem areas will be in the wheat crop. Today, U.S. futures markets are closed in observation of Memorial Day. Brent Crude oil is down 6 per cent for the dayso far, canola markets are down $10 per tonne for the session. We anticipate wheat markets will observe today’s session and trade with a risk off view heading into Tuesday. The markets lower on anticipation that the conflict in Iran is de-escalating and trading in a risk off sentiment on commodities. Stocks trading the inverse of commodities. What markets will trade on the two following items as we head into the last week of May and the first few parts of June: weather and perceived war risk. Weather looks favourable in most of the Europeanregion and Black Sea. Australia, Northern United States and Canada will be the most closely watched here for the short term as the crops begin to establish. We will have more focus on the harvest reports coming from the U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat region. Canadian exports running strong and crop exports still very competitive from Canadian coasts. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook for durum will be dependent upon the Canadian crop. North African and European crops look very promising, and the market is pricing in the fact that new crop demand from Canada will be down 300,000 tonnes less through the export system for the season. Many private estimates have the Canadian crop at down about 1 MMT year-over-year but the crop is still being planted and will be soon into a weather market. The crop is on the tail end of planting and prairie producers should finish up durum plantings this week. Markets will shift into how the western Canadian crop doesshape up and how early June weather shows itself. This will be the key card to the durum market. A large western Canadian crop will keep markets muted into early fall. Markets anticipated to be flat for both old crop and new crop and will remain so unless any market news develops from the North American crop. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

May 19, 202610 min

Wheat Market Outlook - May 19, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Markets are dealing with growing concerns for spring wheat planting delays in Russia and in the northern regions of the Canadian Prairies. Much anticipation as to how the coming two weeks shape up on the planting progress. The story in the United States remains the Hard Red Winter Wheat region with harvest set to begin shortly there in some of the most drought affected areas and we will begin getting some early harvest reports from the regions shortly. The U.S. wheat cropis forecasted as being the smallest since 1972, and the drop in 2026/27 wheat ending stocks globally was enough of a catalyst to send markets higher last week. We are focused on how planting progress shapes up as we enter the lastpart of May. We are very much in a northern hemisphere weather market. Anyissues with the spring wheat crops of Western Canada ornorthern U.S. Plains would be the catalyst for a move. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price outlook is flat for the time being. The market is aware of the North African harvest being large and we have seen the new crop values translate back to North America reflecting a larger harvest. Markets will shift into how the westernCanadian crop does shape up and how early June weather shows itself. North African crop looks great, North American crop story has yet to be told. This will be the key card to the durum market. A large western Canadian crop will keep markets muted into early fall. If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

May 11, 202611 min

Wheat Market Outlook - May 11, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Wheat markets are trying to calculate the outcome from the Kansas wheat tour this week. Oklahoma’s crop tour showed just how bad the drought there did affect the crop. We will get the USDA’s first crack at production but also demand side of the trade in tomorrow’s report. Expect the market to watch this one as it is one of the more watched USDA reports of the year. Canadian crop progress is being watched as well. Spring wheat planting would be considered behind pace as of right now. A large part of northern Canadian growing region is behind pace compared to recent years, not a major market concern yet but if the forecast does not provide some warm weather, could become more of a topic for markets. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price opportunities to the upside of durum are limited for the short term. The North African crop looks great and North American crop story has yet to be told. The Turkish crop is expected to be larger this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets are watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses and crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly. The Canadian durum region is not the region that is behind in planting progress, and these acres are currently being planted.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

May 4, 20269 min

Wheat Market Outlook - May 4, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT Markets trying to decipher where the fine line is between where the crops will benefit from the forecasted rainfall in western Kansas and eastern Colorado this week. The markets did not do an abrupt selloff on theforecasted precipitation, which points to markets sitting with a “show me” attitude on the upcoming rains. This region is the markets focus on wheat, but we are starting to see a few more reports out of Euro region and eastern Europe. Some colder weather there has slowed spring crop planting in Russia and some dryness starting to build in Poland and into Ukraine, but markets focus is not here quite yet and will see if it does transition into a hot topic item or not. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the May USDA reportnext week. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota and the Canadian crop. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards. MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUMPrice opportunities to the upside of durum appear limited for the short term. North African crop looks great, North American crop story has yet to be told. Turkish crop is expected to be a larger crop this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly. Canadian planting will be taking place over the next 10 to 14 days.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

April 27, 20269 min

Wheat Market Outlook - April 27, 2026

Market Outlook – Wheat Markets sit at two-year highs on the spring wheat chart in Minneapolis. The weather risk has baked itself into the current wheat market values with growing concern of how much tonnage will come from the U.S. HRW wheat region. Thisregion is the markets focus, but we are starting to see a few more reports out of the Euro region and eastern Europe. Some colder weather there has slowed spring crop planting. Also reports of some dryness starting to build in Poland and into Ukraine, but the market’s focus is not quite there yet, and it remains to be seen if this transitions into a hot topic item or not. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the May USDA report. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota and the soon-to-be planted Canadian crop. Planting is set to begin once weather turns warmer as many regions are still a little wet and cold. Expect Canadian planting to become more prominent May 1, 2026 onward this year, although a few northern wheat production regions are sittingwith some lingering snow cover yet. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.Market Outlook – DurumPrice outlook looks flat for the time being. The North African crop looks great and the North American crop story has yet to be told. Algeria’s tender of durum wheat will provide a bit of support for producers to clean up old crop inventories ahead of planting, but no major rally is being anticipated as there is ample carry out and a good prospect for the North African / Mediterranean crop. The Turkish crop is expected to be larger this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets are watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow, as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly.

April 20, 202610 min

Wheat Market Outlook - April 20, 2026

Market Outlook – Wheat Markets are hyper focused on the U.S. winter wheat crop as the only real problematic region in the world. Russia, Ukraine and European Union crops all look as expected and are growing without major market concern. Many of these regions will be putting out a smaller crop than last year but that has been anticipated for several months now, partly in anticipation to come off of last year's large yields in many areas. We will begin to see more official reports on 2026/27 production estimates as the European Union and many of the northern hemisphere crops begin to come closer to their harvest season in June and July. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the MayUSDA report. U.S. weather is the focus right now as some major dryness in the HRW wheat belt, lack of rain and a touch of frost in western parts of the region on the weekend. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota here in the coming weeks. The crop was 6 per cent planted as of last week and should be over the double digit point this week. Canadian crop planting is just set to begin once the weather turns warmer. Many regions are still a little wet and cold. Expect Canadian planting to become more prominent May 1, 2026 onward this year, although a few northern wheat production regions are sitting with some lingering snow cover yet. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.Market Outlook – DurumPrice outlook looks flat for the time being. Algeria's tender of durum wheat will provide a bit of support for producers to clean up old crop inventories ahead of planting, but no major rally is being anticipated as ample carryouts and a good prospect for the North African / Mediterranean crop. North African crop for durum still appears quite promising. Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Lower durum acreage anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North Africancrop comes off.

April 13, 202610 min

Wheat Market Outlook - April 13, 2026

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEATAs of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Ukraine’s southern region and Poland are faring on the drier side, although the market is not focusing quite on major production losses there yet, but will be monitoring. Canadian crop planting is just beginning but still two weeks away from when major progress is expected across the Prairies. Producers could be moving some grain as we play with crop marketing year highs. Producers should be cognisant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. Outside of the U.S., weather issues for wheat look limited although that sentiment can shift anytime. MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUMPrice outlook looks flat for durum for the time being. The North African crop for durum still appears quite promising and Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest, which could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Algeria is anticipated to tender for 50,000 tonnes of durum this week and durum markets will be watching closely to see how the tender comes in. Lower durum acreage is anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets are watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global export.If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/