106. Bond Yields Spike, Markets Wobble, and Why We’re Still Cautiously Optimistic
A lot can change in a month. Since Richard last caught up with Brian’s colleague Kam, half the companies in the S&P 500 have slipped into bear market territory, the IPO market has started to wobble, and the bond market has delivered one of its sharpest moves in years. Richard and Brian Dunhill unpack what’s behind the recent spike in US Treasury yields, and why it has them looking at fixed income very differently. With US government debt at $40 trillion and around $2 trillion a year going on interest alone, is this the US’s Liz Truss moment, or a once-in-a-cycle opportunity? They also dig into where the real strength in markets is coming from. Earnings growth is on track for close to 30% this year, well ahead of the 19% expected in January, but with so much of it driven by AI companies taking on debt, both agree the risks are building beneath the surface. Brian explains how he is repositioning bond allocations, why he is staying away from AI-heavy corporate debt, and why he is looking at emerging market bonds and preferred instead. He also explains why he isn’t hedging back to the dollar, which he believes is overvalued and due a correction. Along the way, the conversation turns to tax and politics, including capital gains and indexing cost basis, the Dutch wealth tax system, whether the UK will ever rejoin the EU, the US midterms, and the elections and unrest shaping markets abroad. There are also detours to a Jamie Carragher shrine in a New York pub and the great James Bond debate. Richard remains cautiously optimistic, Brian is simply optimistic, and on one thing they both agree.. it’s time to take a close look at your bonds! -- Expat Wealth is supported by Plan First Wealth. Plan First Wealth is a Registered Investment Advisor serving fellow expatriates and immigrants living across the US on matters such as retirement planning, investment management, tax planning and non-US asset management. https://planfirstwealth.com/ -- Expat Wealth is affiliated with Plan First Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Plan First Wealth. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Plan First Wealth does not provide any tax and/or legal advice and strongly recommends that listeners seek their own advice in these areas. ABOUT RICHARD: Richard Taylor is a British expat, dual citizen (UK & US). Originally from Bolton, he now lives in Greenwich, CT, where Plan First Wealth has its head office. As the firm’s leader, Richard launched Taylor & Taylor, now Plan First Wealth, and continues to fuel the firm’s growth. Richard is a Chartered Financial Planner (UK – CII) in addition to holding the IMC (CFA UK) and Series 65 (US – FINRA). Connect with Richard on LinkedIn




