Two Quants and a Financial Planner

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140

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Jun 2026

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About the show

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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June 15, 202635 min

When the Fire Hose Meets the Megatrend | The Weekly Wrap

In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down two major conversations with Mike Green and Vanguard's Joe Davis. The discussion connects passive investing flows, mega-cap concentration, AI-driven productivity, fiscal deficits, demographics, and the possibility that markets are being reshaped by forces most investors do not fully understand.Topics covered:* Why passive investing can act like a fire hose into the largest stocks* How market-cap weighting can amplify flows into mega-cap, high-volatility companies* The connection between passive flows, factor investing, size, beta, and volatility* Why Mike Green sees passive flow dynamics changing market behavior* How buy-the-dip behavior, ETF flows, CTAs, and volatility control funds can reinforce rallies* Vanguard's megatrends framework for technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization* Why long-term structural trends can affect short-term growth, inflation, and markets* Joe Davis's case that AI could be more transformative than the personal computer* The risk that AI only automates work rather than augmenting workers and creating new industries* Why disappointing AI adoption could bring fiscal deficits, inflation pressure, and higher Treasury yields back into focusTimestamps:00:00 Passive flows, AI, and the biggest forces shaping markets03:38 Mike Green on passive investing as a market liquidity fire hose08:26 The passive flow premium and why large-cap stocks keep winning12:00 Joe Davis on technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization16:20 Mike Green on whether passive flows can reverse20:46 Buy-the-dip behavior, ETF inflows, and market volatility21:25 Joe Davis on AI, deficits, and the future of U.S. growth25:04 The 20% probability of a 9% 10-year Treasury yield29:00 Why AI could be more powerful than the personal computer34:10 Final thoughts on Mike Green, Joe Davis, and the Excess Returns network

June 8, 2026Episode 14135 min

The $1.75T IPO No One Can Price | 6 Things That Surprised Us This Week

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at the market stories that surprised us most, including the potential SpaceX IPO, extreme valuations, market structure, AI disruption, value investing, tech leadership and oil prices. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips from Cameron Dawson, Kai Wu, Jim Paulsen and Dave Nadig on what investors should understand about valuation, index flows, disruption and market leadership.Topics Covered:Why the SpaceX IPO could test how investors think about growth, valuation and market structureCameron Dawson on what 80 to 100 times sales implies for a company as large as SpaceXThe Palantir comparison and why great growth can still get priced in too earlyKai Wu on why traditional value investing struggles in industries exposed to technological disruptionHow value investing has performed differently in exposed versus insulated sectorsJim Paulsen on the shift from Magnificent Seven leadership to small cap tech and unprofitable tech stocksDave Nadig on why SpaceX’s small free float and index inclusion mechanics could distort price discoveryWhy forced index buying, options trading and pre-positioning could make the first 30 days of SpaceX trading chaoticKai Wu on AI disruption, software stocks and why dispersion creates both opportunity and riskJim Paulsen on why the biggest stock market pressure from oil spikes may come after oil prices peakTimestamps:00:54 What surprised us most this week05:27 What 100x sales means for SpaceX investors10:52 Why value investing still works outside disrupted industries15:45 Why risky market leadership can continue longer than investors expect20:53 Why SpaceX’s low free float matters for index funds25:23 AI disruption and the opportunity in software dispersion29:23 How dispersion creates winners and destroys funds33:46 Why oil peaks can pressure the economy with a lag

May 31, 2026Episode 1391 hr 2 min

They Lose on Purpose — And Still Come Out Ahead | The Weekly Wrap - 5/31/2026

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the best investing insights from Adam Parker, Robert Hagstrom, and Eric Crittenden. We discuss why the market may still be trading on fundamentals, why valuation alone can fail as a stock-picking tool, how modern portfolio theory changed investing, what business-driven investors can learn from Warren Buffett, and why trend following may work by providing liquidity to hedgers.Topics covered:Why the stock market may be looking through today’s headlines to future earnings and AI-driven fundamentalsAdam Parker’s argument that valuation does not work well as a standalone stock-picking signalWhy estimate revisions, earnings beats, and gross margin changes may matter more than cheap P/E ratiosRobert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz, Benjamin Graham, and the debate over whether volatility is the same thing as riskHow modern portfolio theory shaped active management, index funds, and the way investors think about diversificationWarren Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor for separating stock prices from business ownershipEric Crittenden on why hedgers may willingly lose money on trades to reduce business risk and lower cost of capitalWhy trend following may earn a risk premium by providing liquidity to hedgers in their moment of needHow systematic investors should think about tinkering with models during drawdownsRobert Hagstrom’s story about Bill Ruane and the importance of finding the right clients and investorsTimestamps:00:00 Risk, valuation, and hedging in this week’s best clips04:06 Adam Parker on why the market may still be trading on fundamentals08:49 Why cheap stocks are often cheap for a reason14:37 Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz and the birth of modern portfolio theory18:50 How portfolio theory became the institutional language of investing22:27 Eric Crittenden on hedgers, cost of capital, and who is on the other side of the trade27:51 Adam Parker on why firm-wide market outlooks are so hard to get right33:53 Robert Hagstrom on Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor39:16 Why gross margin change may be one of the most important stock-picking signals44:56 Eric Crittenden and Jason Buck on tinkering with systematic strategies49:00 Why trend following may work over the long term53:09 Robert Hagstrom on meeting Bill Ruane and learning which clients to avoid58:38 Why firing the wrong clients can strengthen an investment business

May 25, 2026Episode 1381 hr 6 min

He Studied 100 Years of Bubbles. He Exposed Private Equity's Volatility Illusion | The Weekly Wrap

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with Cliff Asness, Andy Constan, Gene Munster, Doug Clinton, and Ben Carlson. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss volatility, bubble regimes, AI infrastructure, private equity risk, investor behavior, and why doing nothing is often harder than it looks.Main topics covered:Cliff Asness on why volatility is not a perfect risk measure, but still matters for real investorsThe limits of defining risk only as permanent loss of capitalAndy Constan on why bubbles can feel low risk because they trend with low volatilityHow leverage, confidence, and investor behavior can inflate bubble regimesGene Munster and Doug Clinton on AI, electricity, data centers, hyperscaler CapEx, and energy demandWhy AI infrastructure constraints may affect whether the AI boom becomes a classic bubbleBen Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and why investors often fear the wrong thingsCliff Asness on private equity, volatility laundering, and the illusion of smooth returnsAndy Constan on what active investors should do in bubble regimes and why mean reversion can failDoug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI job disruption, knowledge workers, and how to adaptBen Carlson on action bias, penalty kicks, and why doing nothing can be the hardest investing decisionTimestamps:00:00 Intro and the week’s biggest investing clips03:37 Cliff Asness on volatility, risk, and permanent loss of capital10:16 Andy Constan on why low volatility can make bubbles more dangerous20:41 Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on turning electricity into intelligence25:11 Why AI power constraints may change the bubble debate30:39 Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and investor attention35:44 Cliff Asness on private equity and volatility laundering43:42 Andy Constan on alpha, sizing down, and trading in bubbles50:06 Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI, jobs, and knowledge workers57:55 AI blind spots, token subsidies, and old tech investing frameworks59:58 Ben Carlson on penalty kicks, action bias, and doing nothing01:04:45 Quant lessons in sports, the Knicks, and closing thoughts

May 17, 2026Episode 1371 hr 8 min

He Invested Through Five Bubbles. He Wrote the Book on Them | The Weekly Wrap - 5/17/2026

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together highlights from our interviews with Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan, Edward Chancellor and Marc Rubinstein to examine AI, bubbles, private credit, market structure and the lessons of past capital cycles.We look at whether AI is creating a new investment bubble, why technological revolutions often disappoint investors even when the technology succeeds, and how private credit, financials, monopolies and market leadership fit into today’s confusing market environment.Main topics covered:• Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion, monopoly power and why the Mag 7 may have avoided normal competitive pressure• Andy Constan’s framework for bubbles, including the “something new,” escalation event and peaking phase• Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and why boom-time profits can reverse when investment is misallocated• Marc Rubinstein on private credit, redemption gates, retail investors and why the risks may be real without being systemic• Grantham’s argument that AI may become a cost of doing business rather than a permanent boost to aggregate profits• Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and how policy responses can add fuel to a bubble• What railway mania, canals and past technology booms can teach investors about winners, losers and overbuilding• Rubinstein’s case for European financials and why growth can be dangerous in financial services• Grantham’s bubble detector and the signal that has appeared near the tops of 1929, the Nifty Fifty, 2000 and 2021• Why investors need humility when navigating bubble regimes, AI enthusiasm, private credit and market concentrationTimestamps:00:00 Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan and Edward Chancellor on AI, bubbles and capex01:14 Why this week’s conversations connect across AI, bubbles and market structure04:31 Jeremy Grantham on monopoly power, mean reversion and the Mag 711:24 Andy Constan’s three-stage framework for market bubbles20:12 Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and reported profits30:28 Marc Rubinstein on private credit gates and the limits of systemic risk37:50 Jeremy Grantham on why AI may become a cost of doing business42:55 How Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the late 1990s bubble50:02 What railways, canals and overbuilding teach us about technology booms55:58 Marc Rubinstein on European financials, innovation and US market confusion1:00:38 Jeremy Grantham’s bubble detector and the warning from market leaders1:05:59 Closing thoughts on bubble signals, investor humility and Excess Returns resources

May 11, 2026Episode 1361 hr 6 min

The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think.Topics CoveredWhy great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returnsThe role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing successJim Paulsen’s argument that today’s inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970sHow supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlookBridgeway’s research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large capsWhy vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal softwareHow the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economyWhy the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer than 50 stocks despite having 500 namesWhat management meetings can and cannot add to a stock picker’s processWhy patience, conviction and independent business verification may be enduring investing edgesTimestamps00:00 Intro and episode preview05:30 Why outliers drive stock picking returns09:58 Why today’s inflation may not be the 1970s17:27 Rethinking the small-cap premium24:11 AI disruption and vertical market software32:04 The AI boom versus the rest of the economy37:04 Why the S&P 500 acts like 46 stocks46:09 What investors can learn from management teams53:32 Why today’s tech boom is not the 1990s58:34 Patience, conviction and the last investing edge01:05:32 Closing thoughts and Excess Returns Substack

May 3, 2026Episode 1351 hr 9 min

Outperformed by Mom | The Weekly Wrap – 5/2/2026

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding.Topics CoveredWhy letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investorsChris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companiesThe tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio riskWhy Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970sHow oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wagesChris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual riskWhat cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacencyWhy the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living inThe relationship between valuation, durability and software stocksWhy higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flowChris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investingWhy AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment storyTimestamps00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners

April 26, 2026Episode 1341 hr 12 min

We Asked David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran and Cameron Dawson What This Market Is Getting Wrong

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores one of the most important questions in markets today: what’s really driving this rally, and how fragile is it beneath the surface.We break down the growing concentration in earnings, the role of passive flows, and why multiple top investors see structural risks building even as markets continue to rise.We highlight key insights from David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Travis Prentice on market concentration, the macro link between asset prices and the economy, and how investors should think about risk, valuations, and positioning in an environment increasingly driven by flows rather than fundamentals.Topics CoveredWhy two companies are driving a disproportionate share of earnings growth and what that means for the broader marketThe growing link between stock prices, consumer spending, and the overall economyHow passive investing is changing market structure and risk measurementThe difference between tracking error risk and real risk for long-term investorsWhy valuations matter for long-term returns but not short-term timingLessons from past technology booms and whether AI is repeating historyThe role of capital intensity and margin pressure in today’s largest companiesWhy disruption eventually impacts even the best businessesHow professional investors adjust portfolios in expensive marketsWhy understanding probabilities and multiple scenarios is critical for investingTimestamps00:00 Intro04:45 David Rosenberg on the “perma bear” label and managing tail risk09:18 Chris Bloomstran on disruption and why no company compounds forever15:40 Why the economy is increasingly tied to the stock market20:28 The savings rate, consumer spending, and hidden economic risks26:00 Passive investing, flows, and how market structure has changed31:32 Tracking error vs real risk and investor behavior37:28 David Rosenberg on probabilities and having a plan B42:26 How investors manage portfolios in expensive markets43:38 Two companies driving 50% of earnings growth49:00 Concentration vs broadening in the market55:25 Valuations, bubbles, and expected returns01:01:00 Why valuations are not a short-term timing tool01:07:00 AI investment, overcapacity, and lessons from past tech cycles01:12:30 Bull vs bear case for AI-driven growth01:18:00 Final thoughts on market structure, flows, and long-term risks

April 19, 2026Episode 1331 hr 5 min

We Asked Liz Ann Sonders, Jim Grant, and Brent Donnelly What Investors Miss About This Market

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Grant, Liz Ann Sonders, and Brent Donnelly to break down the biggest forces driving markets right now, including war-driven inflation, oil shocks, market resilience, and the evolving role of sentiment and policy reactions. The conversation connects macro history with real-time market behavior to help investors understand what actually matters beneath the headlines.Topics Covered:Why war has historically been one of the most consistent drivers of inflationHow oil shocks impact both inflation and economic growth simultaneouslyThe nuance behind the “US as a net energy exporter” narrativeWhy markets require a steady stream of bad news to sustain a declineHow policy reaction functions (Fed, government) shape market outcomesThe difference between structural trends and short-term shocks in tradingWhy “buy the dip” has worked—and the risks if it stops workingThe role of retail traders and short-term flows in modern market dynamicsContribution vs. price performance in the Mag 7 and S&P 500How sentiment has evolved across different investor cohorts and timeframesTimestamps:00:00 Intro and overview of this week’s guests01:03 Jim Grant on why war is inherently inflationary05:16 Historical context for inflation and wartime dynamics10:40 Liz Ann Sonders on oil shocks and stock market reactions13:11 Demand destruction and the “cure for high prices”15:57 Brent Donnelly on shocks, positioning, and mean reversion18:33 Policy reaction functions and market reflexivity21:44 Jim Grant on bubbles, technology, and the air conditioning analogy27:04 Liz Ann Sonders on buy-the-dip behavior and retail traders32:37 Why markets need sustained bad news to decline38:24 Jim Grant on trust as the foundation of credit markets41:47 Liz Ann on Mag 7 growth vs. the rest of the market46:02 Contribution vs. performance in index construction48:01 Jim Grant on inflation, oil shocks, and policy mistakes52:38 Inflation as a continuous process and purchasing power loss57:09 Liz Ann on Marty Zweig, sentiment, and modern market structure01:02:35 Final thoughts on sentiment, behavior, and market complexity

April 12, 2026Episode 1321 hr 10 min

The Recession Signal Hidden in Walmart | The Weekly Wrap - 4/12/2026

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Paulsen, Brent Kochuba, Anthony Wang, and Tom Hancock to break down what’s really driving markets right now—from recession signals and oil shocks to AI economics and options flows. We explore whether current conditions look more like the start of a new bull market or something more fragile beneath the surface.We dive into unique indicators like the “Walmart signal,” shifting oil/VIX correlations, the real economics behind the AI boom, and what options markets are telling us about positioning and risk.Topics Covered:The Walmart vs. luxury retail indicator and what it signals about recession riskWhy oil is no longer driving volatility the way it did earlier in the crisisHow geopolitical shocks are (and aren’t) translating into equity market stressThe role of options flows and the JP Morgan collar in shaping market movesWhy all market signals should be viewed as probabilities, not certaintiesAI and the “cost of intelligence going to zero” and what that means for productivityThe layering of AI economics and how cash flows through the systemWhy this AI cycle differs from the dot-com bubble (utilization, funding, cost curves)The importance of cash-funded capex vs. debt-driven speculationWhy low consumer confidence may actually be bullish for stocksIndicators that look more like the start of a bull market than the endThe role of sentiment, positioning, and underreaction in driving returnsTimestamps:00:00 Intro01:00 Weekly Wrap overview and guest lineup03:05 The Walmart indicator and recession signals06:20 Private credit stress vs traditional credit signals09:05 Interpreting economic indicators in context10:25 Oil and VIX correlation breakdown13:05 Why oil stopped driving volatility15:00 “Certainty about uncertainty” and market behavior16:10 AI and the collapsing cost of intelligence18:40 Agents, productivity, and the future of software21:05 AI skepticism vs long-term adoption curve22:30 AI capex, cash flow, and economic layering25:00 Why this AI cycle is more stable than dot-com27:00 Cash-funded investment vs debt-driven bubbles29:25 Bull market vs bear market signals today31:00 Consumer confidence as a contrarian indicator33:30 The role of sentiment and upside surprises34:25 The JP Morgan collar and market structure37:00 Trading probabilities vs certainty39:00 How options flows act as market “magnets”41:05 Comparing AI infrastructure to fiber buildout44:30 Utilization and demand in AI vs dot-com47:00 Network effects and scaling AI adoption01:09:30 Final thoughts and wrap-up