Trading in the New Economy

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Oct 2026

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October 25, 202631 min

Contrarian Alert: Is a Generational Opportunity Taking Shape?

Some of the sharpest sell-offs could eventually create rare long-term opportunities. That is a possibility, not a confirmed buying signal. In this update, Garry Davis examines why markets are sending contradictory signals and what would be required to confirm a contrarian opportunity. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard US economic data and many earnings forecasts remain positive, yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq weakened as AI-related sentiment was reassessed. Equal-weight equities and small caps held up better over the week, and individual technology leaders have markedly different chart patterns. This is not a market giving a clear directional verdict. Australian junior miners and precious metals have experienced aggressive selling, despite compelling long-term fundamentals in some businesses. Further downside remains possible. Rather than guess a bottom, Garry is looking for downward momentum to slow and then a convincing reversal, with decisions guided by each investor’s timeframe and tolerance for volatility. For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start. Members have access to Garry to support them in creating a trading plan that suits their risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

October 18, 202631 min

The Market Has Changed - So Has My Strategy

The market has changed, and Garry has refined his portfolio priorities. His underlying investment principles remain unchanged. In this update, Garry Davis explains what has shifted and how to manage risk when strong businesses are caught in volatile markets. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard Semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks fell sharply despite robust demand and strong results from leading companies. Inflation and financing concerns have amplified volatility, without establishing what comes next. Model portfolio opportunities are now grouped by sustainable quality and probability of success rather than primarily by sector. Money-flow confirmation, appropriate weightings and clear entry and exit rules remain central. Garry also examines October and US midterm-election history. The historical odds are encouraging, but not a guarantee, and can conceal painful interim corrections. Investors need both conviction in quality assets and flexibility. For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start. Members have access to Garry to support them in creating a trading plan that suits their risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

October 11, 202628 min

The Bear Case Weakens - But Here's the Catch

The bear case for US equities is weakening as broader market participation improves. But that is not an all-clear, and a sudden correction remains a credible risk. In this update, Garry Davis examines three possible market paths over the next 3, 6 and 12 months, weighing what the evidence supports against the risks that could change the picture. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard Equal-weight US equities have outperformed the headline index, and investment-grade credit conditions are showing some improvement. At the same time, riskier borrowers face greater pressure and elevated bond yields remain a concern. Garry favours a choppy, selective advance, not a smooth market-wide rally, while recognising that an external catalyst could trigger a meaningful correction. The failed Firmus IPO adds another important distinction: enormous demand for AI infrastructure does not mean every project is financeable at any valuation. Garry explores why secured power, contracted customers, sound balance sheets and realistic project economics are becoming critical as capital flows towards stronger operators. For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start. Members have access to Garry to support them in creating a trading plan that suits their risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

October 3, 202625 min

Market Breadth Is Getting Worse - How Far Is Too Far?

US market breadth has deteriorated sharply, but the headline indices and semiconductors still refuse to confirm a major breakdown. In this update, Garry Davis examines what worsening market breadth, rising yields and widening credit spreads are telling investors - and why the strength in technology means the bearish case remains incomplete. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . The contradiction beneath the US market is now stark. Eight of the 11 major sectors are in downtrend, while the equal-weight S&P 500 has been falling for weeks. Yet the cap-weighted S&P 500 remains near its highs and the Nasdaq has just set new records. At the same time, the bond and credit markets have become more concerning. The US 10-year Treasury yield finished around 5.28%, while high-yield credit spreads have widened materially. Garry describes the setup as a yellow light rather than a red light: the direction of travel is negative, but a major equity breakdown is still not confirmed. Technology and semiconductors remain the major counter-signal. Their resilience in the face of higher yields and broader weakness says a great deal about the strength of AI-related demand and capital flows. The practical response is not to guess the next market move, but to stay selective, manage weightings and let price action dictate the probabilities. Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start. Members have access to Garry to support them in creating a trading plan that suits their risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

September 27, 202623 min

AI Might Kill Us All… But Seriously, Follow the Money

AI fears are generating extraordinary headlines, but the more useful question for investors is what the evidence and money flows are actually saying. At the same time, the market warning from two weeks ago has not disappeared. Macro stress remains, although the confirmations needed for a serious systemic unwind are still missing. Garry Davis explains why that distinction matters. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard Markets have been tested repeatedly and have so far refused to break. Bond yields remain elevated and there has been a minor new widening in credit spreads, so the underlying risk has not gone away. However, the broader confirmations that would signal a serious systemic unwind are still absent, which keeps this as a risk scenario rather than a prediction. The same discipline applies to AI. The public debate has become increasingly sensational and tribal, but investors should separate what could happen from what the evidence says is happening. Despite a difficult macro backdrop, semiconductors and other parts of the AI trade have strengthened as the market rewards businesses demonstrating real demand, earnings growth and economic return. The practical message is to ignore the hysteria without ignoring the risks. Huge structural opportunities remain, but they are highly stock-specific and require greater vigilance than usual. Follow the evidence, follow the money flows and be prepared to change when the evidence changes. For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start. Members have access to Garry to support them in creating a trading plan that suits their risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

September 20, 202617 min

The Warning Still Stands - But Something Has Changed

The risks I warned about last week have not disappeared. But the market has just passed two important stress tests far more calmly than logic suggested it would. In this update, Garry Davis explains what changed, why the feared chain reaction did not unfold, and why the next step is to rebuild exposure only as the market provides positive evidence. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard The quarter-point rate moves in the US and Japan could logically have produced a far more disruptive reaction. Instead, the key rate differential barely changed, credit markets stayed calm and equities absorbed the week without major damage. That does not remove the risks around bonds, the yen and the carry trade - it means the feared chain reaction still lacks confirmation. Meanwhile, US corporate earnings remain strong and the AI trade continues to produce evidence of real demand, pricing power and improving returns. The practical response is not to regret earlier risk reduction or rush back in, but to use cash and partial positions to rebuild exposure on positive evidence and tolerable weightings. For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start. Members have access to Garry to support them in creating a trading plan that suits their risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

September 13, 202633 min

I Rarely Do This... But a Serious Market Shock Is Now in Play

For the first time in a long time, there is a credible pathway to a much more serious market outcome. That does not mean a crash is being predicted. In this update, Garry Davis explains why rapidly rising bond yields, shifting global money flows and a highly leveraged financial system have increased the risk - while several vital market confirmations are still missing. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard The key issue is not whether the US 10-year Treasury yield reaches one particular number. It is the speed at which financial conditions are changing. In a highly leveraged system, abrupt moves in bonds, currencies and capital flows can create forced selling and feedback loops that are difficult to contain. At the same time, credit spreads remain relatively calm, volatility is subdued, major US equity indices remain close to record highs and semiconductors are still holding up. The bearish macro case therefore still lacks important confirmation, which is why this remains a risk scenario rather than a prediction. For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start. Members have access to Garry to support them in creating a trading plan that suits their risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

August 30, 202619 min

Friday’s Market Shock Wasn’t What It Seemed

Friday's sudden market reversal looked ugly on the surface, but several of the signals underneath told a very different story. In this update, Garry Davis looks beyond the headline selloff to the bond market, volatility, market breadth and stock-specific money flows - while also examining what this week's earnings told us about AI demand and increasingly selective markets. Watch on YouTube View our scoreboard of results here Friday's move was abrupt, with short-term yields and the US dollar jumping as markets reacted to the Fed. Yet the longer end of the bond market was far calmer, the VIX fell into the 14s, hyperscalers held up and software remained resilient. That combination matters because it does not fit neatly with a broad, high-conviction risk-off event. At the same time, earnings season is reinforcing another important shift. AI demand remains extremely strong, but the market is becoming far more demanding about expectations, valuation and execution. Strong results can still be punished when expectations have moved too far ahead, while capital continues to rotate towards the businesses and sectors where the evidence is strongest. Key message Do not confuse a dramatic price move with confirmation of a new market trend. Read the evidence beneath the indices, understand what the money flows are saying, and keep risk management tied to your purpose and timeframe. Volatility can create opportunity, but only if decisions are made from a plan rather than from the emotion of the day. What you'll learn Why Friday's selloff looked more severe than several underlying market signals suggested Why earnings expectations now matter as much as the headline result What Nvidia and other results are saying about the strength of AI demand Why AI beneficiaries are broadening beyond the obvious technology names How to think about gold, silver, copper and resource volatility after strong runs Why purpose, timeframe, weightings and risk management matter more as volatility rises For clear market analysis, portfolio guidance and a repeatable process across Australian and US markets, learn more about the Insiders Club . If you prefer an individually managed account, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

August 23, 202631 min

Could Rising Bond Yields Trigger the Next Market Reset?

Bond yields are moving higher again, but the major equity indices are not yet signalling a broad market breakdown. That disconnect is worth understanding before it becomes urgent. In this update, Garry Davis looks at what rising US Treasury yields are telling us, why the growing competition for capital matters, and how investors can prepare without trying to predict when — or even whether — the next major reset arrives. Watch on YouTube | View our scoreboard of results The immediate market picture is more balanced than the headlines might suggest. The US indices remain relatively calm, the VIX is not signalling panic, and money is rotating into healthcare, financials, energy and materials rather than simply leaving the market. At the same time, the US 10-year yield has risen sharply and the bond market is beginning to reflect a structural pressure that could become much more important over time. Garry also looks at the abrupt strength in gold, silver and copper, why those moves fit with changing global money flows, and why the right response is not to abandon markets but to stay flexible, know your timeframe and be ready to respond when the evidence changes. Key message Rising bond yields are a legitimate warning sign, but a warning is not the same as a timing signal. Markets could remain constructive for a long time yet. The useful response is to understand the risk, monitor the money flows and have a plan before volatility forces a decision on you. What you’ll learn Why rising US Treasury yields matter for growth stocks and market valuations How hyperscaler borrowing is adding new competition for global capital Why the current setup is not the same as the 2022 market decline What the VIX, sector rotations and semiconductor charts are signalling now Why gold, silver and copper have moved so abruptly How timeframe, portfolio structure and an open mind can help investors respond if conditions deteriorate If you value clear, probability-based market analysis and a structured process for managing changing conditions, you can learn more about the Insiders Club . If you would like to learn more about our individually managed account service, you can enquire about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

August 9, 202621 min

Gold Breaks Out as Opportunities Explode Across Markets

The market message has turned strongly more positive, with improving breadth in the US, a much better tone across multiple sectors, and an explosive breakout in gold. In this update, Garry Davis looks at the broader change of character across markets, what the latest money flows are signalling, and why being organised still matters when volatility can return quickly. Watch on YouTube View our scoreboard of results Update summary The US market continues to absorb bad news, earnings remain supportive, and participation is broadening well beyond the usual large-cap leaders. At the same time, parts of the AI trade have reset without clearly breaking, while Australia may be entering a more favourable phase, particularly across resources. Gold was the standout move, with miners responding even more strongly than the underlying metal. Key message The bigger question now is not simply whether markets look bullish. It is how to participate with a process that suits your psychology, your plan and your risk tolerance. Opportunities are expanding, but the market is still treating stocks on their merits, so weightings, cash levels and exit rules remain important. What you'll learn Why the bullish case in the US looks stronger now Why improving market breadth matters How to think about the AI reset without following the herd Why the gold breakout and strength in miners are important Where the Australian opportunity set may be improving Why organisation, weightings and exit rules still matter in a bullish market If you value calm, rational and objective market analysis, you can learn more about the Insiders Club here: Join the Insiders Club If you would like to learn more about our individually managed account service, you can enquire here: Portfolio Manager Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

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