Trading in the New Economy

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Aug 2026

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September 13, 202633 min

I Rarely Do This... But a Serious Market Shock Is Now in Play

For the first time in a long time, there is a credible pathway to a much more serious market outcome. That does not mean a crash is being predicted. In this update, Garry Davis explains why rapidly rising bond yields, shifting global money flows and a highly leveraged financial system have increased the risk - while several vital market confirmations are still missing. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard The key issue is not whether the US 10-year Treasury yield reaches one particular number. It is the speed at which financial conditions are changing. In a highly leveraged system, abrupt moves in bonds, currencies and capital flows can create forced selling and feedback loops that are difficult to contain. At the same time, credit spreads remain relatively calm, volatility is subdued, major US equity indices remain close to record highs and semiconductors are still holding up. The bearish macro case therefore still lacks important confirmation, which is why this remains a risk scenario rather than a prediction. For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start. Members have access to Garry to support them in creating a trading plan that suits their risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

August 30, 202619 min

Friday’s Market Shock Wasn’t What It Seemed

Friday's sudden market reversal looked ugly on the surface, but several of the signals underneath told a very different story. In this update, Garry Davis looks beyond the headline selloff to the bond market, volatility, market breadth and stock-specific money flows - while also examining what this week's earnings told us about AI demand and increasingly selective markets. Watch on YouTube View our scoreboard of results here Friday's move was abrupt, with short-term yields and the US dollar jumping as markets reacted to the Fed. Yet the longer end of the bond market was far calmer, the VIX fell into the 14s, hyperscalers held up and software remained resilient. That combination matters because it does not fit neatly with a broad, high-conviction risk-off event. At the same time, earnings season is reinforcing another important shift. AI demand remains extremely strong, but the market is becoming far more demanding about expectations, valuation and execution. Strong results can still be punished when expectations have moved too far ahead, while capital continues to rotate towards the businesses and sectors where the evidence is strongest. Key message Do not confuse a dramatic price move with confirmation of a new market trend. Read the evidence beneath the indices, understand what the money flows are saying, and keep risk management tied to your purpose and timeframe. Volatility can create opportunity, but only if decisions are made from a plan rather than from the emotion of the day. What you'll learn Why Friday's selloff looked more severe than several underlying market signals suggested Why earnings expectations now matter as much as the headline result What Nvidia and other results are saying about the strength of AI demand Why AI beneficiaries are broadening beyond the obvious technology names How to think about gold, silver, copper and resource volatility after strong runs Why purpose, timeframe, weightings and risk management matter more as volatility rises For clear market analysis, portfolio guidance and a repeatable process across Australian and US markets, learn more about the Insiders Club . If you prefer an individually managed account, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

August 23, 202631 min

Could Rising Bond Yields Trigger the Next Market Reset?

Bond yields are moving higher again, but the major equity indices are not yet signalling a broad market breakdown. That disconnect is worth understanding before it becomes urgent. In this update, Garry Davis looks at what rising US Treasury yields are telling us, why the growing competition for capital matters, and how investors can prepare without trying to predict when — or even whether — the next major reset arrives. Watch on YouTube | View our scoreboard of results The immediate market picture is more balanced than the headlines might suggest. The US indices remain relatively calm, the VIX is not signalling panic, and money is rotating into healthcare, financials, energy and materials rather than simply leaving the market. At the same time, the US 10-year yield has risen sharply and the bond market is beginning to reflect a structural pressure that could become much more important over time. Garry also looks at the abrupt strength in gold, silver and copper, why those moves fit with changing global money flows, and why the right response is not to abandon markets but to stay flexible, know your timeframe and be ready to respond when the evidence changes. Key message Rising bond yields are a legitimate warning sign, but a warning is not the same as a timing signal. Markets could remain constructive for a long time yet. The useful response is to understand the risk, monitor the money flows and have a plan before volatility forces a decision on you. What you’ll learn Why rising US Treasury yields matter for growth stocks and market valuations How hyperscaler borrowing is adding new competition for global capital Why the current setup is not the same as the 2022 market decline What the VIX, sector rotations and semiconductor charts are signalling now Why gold, silver and copper have moved so abruptly How timeframe, portfolio structure and an open mind can help investors respond if conditions deteriorate If you value clear, probability-based market analysis and a structured process for managing changing conditions, you can learn more about the Insiders Club . If you would like to learn more about our individually managed account service, you can enquire about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

August 9, 202621 min

Gold Breaks Out as Opportunities Explode Across Markets

The market message has turned strongly more positive, with improving breadth in the US, a much better tone across multiple sectors, and an explosive breakout in gold. In this update, Garry Davis looks at the broader change of character across markets, what the latest money flows are signalling, and why being organised still matters when volatility can return quickly. Watch on YouTube View our scoreboard of results Update summary The US market continues to absorb bad news, earnings remain supportive, and participation is broadening well beyond the usual large-cap leaders. At the same time, parts of the AI trade have reset without clearly breaking, while Australia may be entering a more favourable phase, particularly across resources. Gold was the standout move, with miners responding even more strongly than the underlying metal. Key message The bigger question now is not simply whether markets look bullish. It is how to participate with a process that suits your psychology, your plan and your risk tolerance. Opportunities are expanding, but the market is still treating stocks on their merits, so weightings, cash levels and exit rules remain important. What you'll learn Why the bullish case in the US looks stronger now Why improving market breadth matters How to think about the AI reset without following the herd Why the gold breakout and strength in miners are important Where the Australian opportunity set may be improving Why organisation, weightings and exit rules still matter in a bullish market If you value calm, rational and objective market analysis, you can learn more about the Insiders Club here: Join the Insiders Club If you would like to learn more about our individually managed account service, you can enquire here: Portfolio Manager Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

August 1, 202631 min

This Market Is Punishing Guesswork: Here’s How to Stay in Control

Markets are rewarding discipline and punishing anyone trying to make sense of every headline in real time. In this update, Garry Davis explains why AI and semiconductor weakness, rising bond yields, gold’s tightening setup and a highly selective earnings season all point to the same conclusion: get organised before the market forces you to react. Watch on YouTube View our results scoreboard The evidence for AI demand and cloud monetisation is strengthening, but the return on an increasingly debt-supported hyperscaler capital expenditure cycle is still unresolved. At the same time, leverage unwinds and forced selling have amplified semiconductor volatility, while money appears to be rotating rather than leaving the market. Gold and silver are coiling near an important inflexion point, and the Australian earnings season is likely to punish even minor disappointments. These conditions can create outstanding opportunities, but only for investors who are organised enough to avoid emotional decisions. For ongoing market guidance, portfolio recommendations, education and direct support, learn more about the Insiders Club . For an individually managed account where you retain visibility and control, learn more about Portfolio Manager . You do not need to predict the next move. Cash is a position. A clear purpose, weighting plan and exit process allow you to wait for confirmation and act when the risk/reward becomes favourable. What you’ll learn What recent hyperscaler results prove about AI demand — and what remains unresolved Why crowded, leveraged trades can overwhelm compelling fundamentals in the short term Why the semiconductor correction still requires confirmation before trying to pick a bottom What rising bond yields are signalling while the Fed holds rates steady Why gold and silver appear close to a forceful move, but direction still needs confirmation How cash, portfolio weightings and a clear process can turn volatility into opportunity Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

July 26, 202620 min

AI’s Biggest Test Has Begun: Should You Still Buy the Dip?

AI earnings season has begun, and the market is no longer accepting spending promises at face value. In this update, Garry Davis examines what Google’s result and the market response are signalling about hyperscaler capital expenditure, free cash flow and the changing leadership across US markets. Watch on YouTube | View our scoreboard of results The first major hyperscaler result has reinforced what the charts were already showing: AI and technology leadership is weakening, while money is rotating into other parts of the market. That does not invalidate the long-term AI opportunity, but it does make price, timing and stock selection far more important. Garry also looks at the improving relative strength in healthcare, financials, industrials and energy, the resilience of smaller companies, and the early signs that gold and silver may be forming a base after a substantial pullback. If you value clear, probability-based analysis and practical guidance across Australian and US markets, you can learn more about the Insiders Club here: Join the Insiders Club If you would prefer an individually managed account rather than making every portfolio decision yourself, you can enquire here: Portfolio Manager Key message A buy-the-dip opportunity in AI will come, but the current evidence does not yet favour assuming that every decline is an immediate entry point. The long-term theme can remain intact while the short-term reward for risk deteriorates. Follow the money flows, reassess weightings and look more widely for strong businesses where downside appears more limited and upside is building. What you’ll learn Why the market is questioning whether hyperscaler spending can produce an acceptable financial return What falling forward free cash flow means for the bullish and bearish AI cases Why technology and semiconductors are losing relative momentum Where leadership is emerging as money rotates rather than leaves the market Why a gold and silver basing pattern may be forming, without confirming an immediate reversal Why stock selection and entry timing matter more as broad market leadership narrows Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

July 18, 202641 min

Was Friday the Pause Before the Next Leg Down?

Friday’s sharp intraday recovery showed that buyers are still present. It did not confirm that the market has formed a low. In this update, Garry Davis explains why forced selling and leverage are creating unusually fast market moves, what the next six weeks of major earnings could reveal, and why a repeatable process matters more than predicting the top or bottom. Watch on YouTube Markets are at an important crossroads. Friday’s rebound was constructive, but the recovery did not hold strongly enough to confirm a change in control from sellers to buyers. At the same time, the resilience of US small caps suggests this may still be a rotation and leverage reset rather than a wholesale exit from equities. The next phase will be shaped by major US earnings, guidance and—most importantly—how markets respond in the 48 to 72 hours after each result. A strong report is no longer enough if investors are unwilling to reward it. Key message This is not a time for heroic predictions or automatic dip-buying. Raise or reduce exposure according to the evidence, manage weightings and cash levels, and wait for the charts to show that buyers have regained control. What you’ll learn Why Friday was a signal, but not confirmation of a market low How leverage and forced selling can overwhelm strong fundamentals Why the next six weeks of earnings could influence global market direction What would indicate that buyers are beginning to regain control How pre-planned weightings, cash levels and exit rules reduce emotional decisions Why a strong process remains valuable even when an individual call is early or wrong For daily market analysis, portfolio recommendations and a repeatable risk-management process, join the Insiders Club . For investors seeking an individually managed account, learn more about Portfolio Manager . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

July 12, 202631 min

The AI Trade Has Rotated. Has Gold Bottomed?

The AI trade has rotated, and gold may be getting closer to a bottom. In this update, Garry Davis explains why semiconductor risk has risen in the short term, where money is moving, and what still needs to happen before gold can be treated as a confirmed recovery. Watch on YouTube The long-term semiconductor thesis remains compelling, but the character of money flows has changed. Wider swings and heavier selling call for deeper entries and sensible weightings. Meanwhile, the broader market is rotating rather than being deserted, and gold’s downward momentum is slowing without yet confirming a bottom. Key message The market does not owe investors certainty. Respond to the evidence by rebalancing progressively, keeping some cash and waiting for confirmation rather than blindly buying every dip. What you’ll learn Why semiconductors are now a higher-risk short-term trade Where market leadership is rotating Why strong fundamentals are not a timing signal What would confirm a bottom in gold and gold stocks How to rebalance without abandoning long-term themes If you value calm, rational and objective market analysis, you can learn more about the Insiders Club here: Join the Insiders Club If you would like to learn more about our individually managed account service, you can enquire here: Portfolio Manager Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

July 5, 202627 min

Wild Markets, Scary Headlines: My Calm & Rational Response

A wild week in markets produced no shortage of scary headlines. In this update, Garry Davis explains why investors should be careful about jumping to conclusions too quickly, and why calm, rational analysis still matters most when volatility rises. Watch on YouTube This week’s update steps back from the noise and focuses on what actually changed, what did not, and what investors should watch next. The message is simple: one wild week does not automatically prove the bearish case. Key message Scary headlines can create pressure to react, but the best investors stay objective. Let the evidence build. Let the charts and money flows speak. Avoid making big decisions on incomplete information. What you’ll learn Why one volatile week is not enough to draw major conclusions How to separate scary headlines from real evidence What would need to happen for the bearish case to strengthen Why chart structure and money flows remain central in volatile markets Where Garry is focused now across markets If you value calm, rational and objective market analysis, you can learn more about the Insiders Club here: Join the Insiders Club If you would like to learn more about our individually managed service, you can enquire here: Portfolio Manager Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.

June 28, 202639 min

AI Trade Phase 2 Begins: Q3 Earnings to Split Winners From Losers

The AI trade has entered a new phase. Micron has helped prove that AI infrastructure demand is real, but the market is now asking a harder question: which companies can turn that demand into genuine economic returns? For the full experience, watch the YouTube video View our scoreboard of results In this week's update, Garry Davis looks at why Q3 earnings are now pivotal for the AI trade, what Micron revealed about the infrastructure build-out, and why the next phase may split genuine winners from companies simply riding the theme. The key message is that the easy phase of the AI trade is likely over. Demand has been proven, but demand alone is no longer enough. The market now wants evidence of pricing power, margins, cash conversion, backlog quality and credible payback on the enormous capex being deployed across the sector. What you'll learn: Why Micron was such an important earnings signal for the AI infrastructure build-out Why the market is moving from AI demand to AI economic proof What hyperscaler earnings need to show about capex, pricing and customer demand Why the next phase may split the genuine AI winners from the passengers How to think about volatility, risk management and stock selection before the July earnings window If you want a clearer process for navigating ASX and US market opportunities, the Insiders Club provides portfolio recommendations, daily Market Alerts, regular market analysis videos, education and ongoing support. New members can join the Insiders Club for $149 per month for the first two months, then $249 per month after that. Offer closes June 30. There is no lock-in, so you can try the service and decide whether it suits your style. Learn more about the Insiders Club For investors who would prefer professional portfolio management rather than making every decision themselves, Portfolio Manager may be a more suitable option . Any advice in this video is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have been taken into consideration. Accordingly, you should consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Garry Davis (AR No:317590) is an authorised representative of Primary Securities Ltd (AFSL No. 224107). Note to traders* The publishers of this material wish to disclose that they may hold stocks mentioned in their portfolios and that any decision to purchase those stocks should be made only after the purchaser has made their own enquiries as to the validity of any information in this material. Past performance should not be taken as an indicator of future returns. It must also be noted that trading in the stock market involves risk of losing money. Investors and traders can take numerous steps to mitigate such risks with a clear plan, clear targets and entry prices, and strong support from an experienced trader. This approach underpins everything we do and is where we advise every member to start, and you have access to Garry to support you in creating a trading plan that suits your risk profile, timeframe and capital allocation.