June 15, 202616 min
$235 Billion Has to Come from Somewhere
Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-235-billion-has-to-come-from-somewhere/
Episodes
211
Latest episode
Jun 2026
Language
EN-US
About the show
The Weekly Insight Podcast brings you weekly information about what you need to know about what is going on in the market every week.
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June 8, 202612 min
The Chokepoint (Revisited)
Three months ago we published a memo called "The Chokepoint" — written the morning the U.S. started bombing Iran. We laid out exactly what a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure would do to oil prices, inflation, and global GDP.This week we went back and checked our work.The market has hit all-time highs. Brent crude pulled back from $138. The ceasefire has been enough — for now.But the Strait is still effectively closed. The economic impacts we projected are materializing. And the buffers keeping the worst-case scenario at bay are getting thinner.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-chokepoint-revisited/
June 1, 202620 min
SpaceX IPO: Go/No-Go?
Everyone wants SpaceX shares. The phones haven't stopped.So, we did what we always do: we looked at the data first.What is SpaceX actually selling? Three businesses. One is wildly profitable. One is losing money. One is a $6.4 billion annual cash furnace that every major AI company is running right now. The $1.75 trillion price tag wraps all three together and asks you to believe in a future that doesn't fully exist (yet).We also dug into what IPO history actually tells us. Dr. Jay Ritter at the University of Florida has tracked IPO performance for decades. The pattern is remarkably consistent: big pop on Day 1, meaningful underperformance for the next three years. Cerebras went public two weeks ago at $185, opened at $350, and is already trading at $233. The largest IPO in history will not be immune to that dynamic.And then there's the macro question nobody's fully answering: three IPOs — SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic — targeting nearly $200 billion in combined raises over the next five months. The entire U.S. IPO market raised $45 billion in all of 2025. That money has to come from somewhere.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-spacex-ipo-go-no-go/
May 18, 202616 min
The Space in the Middle
Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest reading since 1952. The lowest in history.At the same time, Redbook same-store sales just spiked to 9.6% — one of the strongest retail readings in years.Both of those things are true simultaneously. And that gap is exactly where the most important question in the market lives right now.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-space-in-the-middle/
May 11, 202616 min
Avoiding the Hidden Inheritance Tax
Most families spend years worrying about the estate tax.Here's the reality: fewer than 2,000 deaths will trigger a federal estate tax payment this year. That’s 0.07% of all estates. The tax your heirs will actually pay isn't in the estate code. It's sitting inside your IRA. And there's a limited window — retirement to age 73 — to do something about it.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-avoiding-the-hidden-inheritance-tax/
May 4, 202614 min
The Math Problem: What Do Rising Gas Prices Really Mean?
Two politicians. Same day. Completely opposite claims about what gas prices are doing to American households.Rep. Ro Khanna: $5,000 per household.Treasury Secretary Bessent: "All cylinders are firing. Gas prices are coming down."Both are wrong.So, this week we did the actual math.The real number is approximately $1,400 per year — or $117 a month — for the average household. That's the direct pump cost plus the hidden pass-through costs most people never connect to gas: freight, packaging, petrochemicals, home energy. Costs that show up weeks later as a 3-cent increase on a box of cereal or a slightly higher utility bill. And — critically — costs that don't reverse as quickly as the pump price when gas eventually falls.But the more important number is what $1,400 means when you put it next to what wages have actually done.Nominal wages are up 3.5%. Inflation is running at 3.3%. That leaves the median household with roughly a $245 real raise this year. When the energy burden gets added, real purchasing power turns negative for the first time since 2022 — across every income quartile, just at very different magnitudes.And that's before we get to what falling real wages have historically meant for the economy. Or why the market's current position near all-time highs is worth thinking about carefully.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-math-problem-what-do-rising-gas-prices-really-mean/
April 27, 202611 min
Being Right Isn't Enough
John Maynard Keynes may be the most influential economist who ever lived.He was right about Versailles. Right about the Depression. He redesigned the global financial system at Bretton Woods.He also lost his entire fortune in the market.His lesson: it doesn't matter how right you are. If the market stays irrational longer than you can stay solvent, you lose.LTCM had two Nobel laureates. Lost 90% of investor capital in four months — being right.Julian Robertson closed his fund on the exact day the Nasdaq peaked — being right.George Soros — greatest macro trader of the 20th century — bought at the top — after being right for too long.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-being-right-isnt-enough/
April 20, 202613 min
The Market Moved On. The Strait Didn’t.
Nine trading days.That's how long it took the S&P 500 to recover every point it lost since the Iran war began.The COVID crash — which was considered one of the fastest recoveries in market history — took 104 trading days. Twelve times longer.The market's message is clear: this conflict is a disruption, not a recession. Recession odds in prediction markets never came close to what we saw during last year's trade war or the government shutdown.We agree — mostly.Here's what the market isn't pricing: the Strait of Hormuz can reopen Wednesday and 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity still takes five years to repair. Half of Iraq's oil production could restart within days. Kuwait's refineries could take months. Those are very different timelines — and only one of them is in the price.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-market-moved-on-the-strait-didnt/
April 6, 202614 min
The Next Big Thing(s)
A significant amount of Qatar's LNG just went offline for 3-5 years.Canadian LNG just came online.The market hasn't connected those dots yet — but it will.That's one of three opportunities we're building toward in this week's memo. The others: Emerging Markets, where a war-driven selloff has created a 6.6 percentage point gap vs. the S&P 500. And small caps — but not the index everyone uses. The war dominates the headlines. The next big things are hiding just underneath them.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-next-big-things/
March 30, 202612 min
We've Been Here Before
Five Trump announcements about the Iran war. Five market rallies. Every single one fully reversed within a week.By Friday, the market didn't even bother with a rally.That's the story of the last month. The market’s been trading the rhetoric, not the facts on the ground. But Friday, the market has stopped buying it.But here's what matters more: we've seen this movie before.Almost exactly six years ago, we were holding an energy MLP fund that was down more than 70% while the S&P was down 34%. Everyone told us we were wrong. We held. We bought more. Our clients stayed the course.From that COVID low through today, that position has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 85%.The Iran war is not COVID. But the behavioral finance lesson is identical. Fear is loudest exactly when patience pays the most.Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-weve-been-here-before/
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