Where are we now? VP's 2025 Top 10 Surprises
Inspired by Byron Wien, we listed VP's 10 surprises as part of our 2025 Themes. We followed his definition of a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would assign less than a 33% probability, but which we believed were “Probable,” having a 50%+ likelihood.The below AI summary provides the key takeaways that can be read in less than 5 minutes.AI Summary - Evaluating VP's 10 surprises for 2025#1 – Trump's tariff and migrant policies are not as inflationary as feared [00:01:05]Contrary to early concerns, tariffs and immigration restrictions have not forced the Fed into hiking. Inflation has risen, but not in a way that demands aggressive tightening. Instead, sticky inflation limits the Fed's ability to cut. Labor market impacts from immigration limits and deportations are still playing out, especially in construction and agriculture.#2 – US growth neither collapses nor surges, supported by consumption [00:04:10]Growth has been stable, but risks are rising. The fiscal impulse has plateaued, and manufacturing capex has weakened. Services have held up, but forward-looking indicators show rising downside risks to activity. Consumption remains resilient, though softening—so far, no cliff.#3 – Powell does nothing after Jan 2025; no cuts, no hikes [00:11:58]Initially seen as a hold scenario, Powell now has scope to cut if growth slows. The market is pricing in about three cuts, but this probably reflects a weighted probability of 1-2 cuts (without recession) or more than 4 cuts (with recession). Rate hikes are almost unthinkable due to political and fiscal constraints; even in a sharp rebound scenario, yield curve control would likely emerge instead.#4 – U.S. 10y yields never break 5% thanks to “Bessent put” and foreign buyers [00:16:46]Despite market volatility and bear steepening, 10-year Treasury yields have held below the key 5% level. The administration appears committed to ensuring yields don't breach this level. Policy intervention - either direct or via tools like SLR reform - is expected to keep long-end rates contained. This is a high-conviction view for us, given the importance of the bond market.#5 – US small caps continue to underperform [00:21:34]Despite optimism post-election, small caps have lagged due to poor index quality, interest rate sensitivity, and weak fundamentals. The index remains vulnerable to high funding costs and lacks appeal outside of single stocks related to reshoring or possibly regional banks. Tactical rallies may occur, but the broader underperformance trend remains intact.#6 – Trump and Xi make a deal [00:25:30]While rhetoric escalated sharply, both sides have signaled openness to talks. A shallow, symbolic deal is likely—low-quality but headline-friendly. Structural tensions remain, but neither side wants to escalate beyond manageable limits. Economic pain on both sides will push toward de-escalation later in the year. We believe peak escalation has passed, and the two parties will gradually move toward some form of a agreement.#7 – Euro breaks parity as Germany “brakes” its economy [00:34:32]This was a clear miss for us. German politics unexpectedly unified in response to Trump's early policies and managed to pass a massive fiscal expansion (~€1 trillion), loosening the debt brake. Liberation Day also unleashed a repatriation wave that weakened the dollar and boosted the euro. While economic fundamentals remain shaky, capital flows have overridden them. The euro might give back some of its gain on a tactical basis, but flows are a structural tailwind from here.#8 – OPEC Loses More Members as Oil Falls [00:43:49]The oil price has fallen since the start of the year, with Kazakhstan exceeding quotas and OPEC adjusting “voluntary” cuts. While no formal exits have occurred, cohesion in the cartel is weakening. The oil story is both supply- and demand-driven, with supply rising and growth headwinds reinforcing downside for demand. We still prefer energy equities over crude itself. So far, the surprise remains valid, with more to play out.#9 – Gold fails to make new highs, underperforms 60-40 [00:41:43]Liberation Day triggered a shift in global reserve preferences, with gold benefiting from reduced trust in Treasuries. Emerging market central banks, esp. those wary of sanctions, may now see gold as their primary neutral reserve asset. Gold is now seen as a structural allocation, and we think tactical sell-offs are opportunities to add exposure.#10 – Capital Cycle: buy China tech, luxury goods as contrarian play [00:46:26]The call began well with a rally in Q1, but Liberation Day and the intensification of trade tensions prompted a reassessment. Chinese equities now face structural headwinds, especially for international investors. Luxury goods remain appealing long-term due to their IP and Lindy effect characteristics, but timing is poor amid global growth concerns and geopolitical risk. Both themes remain valid from a capital cycle view, but we are shifting our attention towards LatAm and US single stocks that may benefit from reshoring and other key themes that have emerged since Liberation Day. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com
