The OPEX Effect

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Jun 2026

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About the show

The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios.

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33 recent

June 13, 20261 hr 7 min

SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once.Brent Kochuba on Xhttps://x.com/spotgammaSpotGammahttps://spotgamma.comTopics covered:Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of tradingHow the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocksWhy fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominateThe role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX tradingHow options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceXWhy dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lowerWhat June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market windowHow Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasmWhy expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stressThe key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEXHow oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatilityWhy Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&PWhat would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correctionTimestamps:00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup

May 9, 2026Episode 351 hr 6 min

The Melt Up That No One Expected | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX.Guest LinksBrent Kochuba on Xhttps://x.com/spotgammaSpotGammahttps://spotgamma.com/Topics CoveredWhy the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attentionHow AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocksWhy options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investorsHow dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market movesWhy options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatilityWhat the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names mattersHow record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flowsWhy Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansionWhat oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market riskTimestamps00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows00:57 Are we in melt-up mode?05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market?16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy28:07 The market rally into May expiration33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 50049:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion

April 11, 2026Episode 341 hr 8 min

The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move.They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration.Topics covered:Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertaintyThe “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quicklyHow options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock pricesWhy call options are historically cheap heading into earningsThe mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioningWhy options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for marketsThe divergence between oil prices and equity volatilityWhat the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioningThe role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market rangesKey resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upsideTimestamps:00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatilityFor more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work:https://spotgamma.comFollow Brent on Twitter:https://twitter.com/spotgamma

March 20, 2026Episode 331 hr 9 min

A 3% Drop from VIX 40 | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect could mean for a potential volatility spike and downside move ahead.Brent Kochuba on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/SpotGammaSpotGamma Websitehttps://spotgamma.comTopics covered in this episode• Why volatility looks elevated beneath the surface even as markets remain relatively calm• The growing gap between implied volatility VIX and realized volatility and what it signals• How options expiration OPEX can create turning points in both price and volatility• Why current positioning is unusually put-heavy and what that means for downside risk• The role of market makers and hedging flows in driving market moves• How geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict are changing options behavior and hedging demand• Why correlation is spiking and what it says about investors moving from stock picking to asset allocation• The breakdown of traditional diversification including the 60/40 portfolio• How credit markets and liquidity risks could amplify equity volatility• The impact of zero DTE options and why traders are shifting to longer-duration hedges• The significance of the JP Morgan collar trade and key levels to watch into month-end• Why volatility spikes often follow periods of suppressed market movement• The potential for a sharp upside rally if geopolitical risks suddenly resolve• How options positioning can help both traders and long-term investors with timing decisionsTimestamps00:00 Volatility premium vs low market movement disconnect01:00 Why markets feel calm despite rising risks05:20 Explosion in options volume and impact of Monday Wednesday Friday expirations07:00 How market maker hedging flows drive price movements08:40 Dynamic hedging and why options impact evolves over time09:20 Why OPEX can trigger market turning points10:30 VIX expiration effects and short-term volatility suppression13:00 Negative gamma and how it amplifies market volatility14:10 Why hedging demand remains high despite OPEX clearing16:00 Jump risk scenario and potential VIX spike to 4017:10 Shift from zero DTE trading to longer-term hedging18:00 Put-heavy positioning across equities and indices20:40 Size and significance of the current OPEX event22:20 VIX spike dynamics around expiration23:40 JP Morgan collar trade and key SPX levels25:00 Why OPEX often marks short-term market lows or highs28:30 Review of prior OPEX signals and market setup30:00 Rising correlation and shift to asset allocation mindset32:00 Dispersion breakdown and implications for equities34:00 Software sector volatility and AI disruption narrative36:30 Using options signals for better timing decisions39:00 Correlation spike and risk-off behavior across markets41:30 Why investors are avoiding calls and piling into puts44:30 Cross-asset correlation breakdown and bond hedge failure48:00 Credit market risks and spillover into equities49:00 Extreme VIX vs realized volatility spread50:50 Why realized volatility remains unusually low52:30 Oil, inflation, and macro feedback loops

February 15, 2026Episode 321 hr 6 min

Violently Going Nowhere | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves beneath the surface tell a very different story. From software stocks and AI disruption to gold, silver, bonds, and the Nasdaq, they analyze how dealer hedging flows, gamma positioning, implied volatility, and options expiration cycles may be shaping market behavior more than headlines suggest. If you want to understand why markets can feel wildly volatile yet go nowhere, and how options positioning can influence short term price action, this episode provides a deep dive into the mechanics driving today’s market environment.Main Topics CoveredWhy the market feels like the wildest calm market of all timeMassive single stock volatility versus muted index performanceSoftware stock weakness, AI disruption, and the so called SaaS apocalypseThe surge in options volume and the rise of zero DTE in major stocksHow dealer hedging, delta, gamma, and volatility flows impact equitiesThe historical tendency for markets to flip direction after options expirationRealized volatility versus intraday volatility and what is being hiddenBeneath the surface rotation into value, small caps, energy, and defenseGold and silver volatility spikes and what options volume signaled at the topRising demand for puts and what skew is telling us about downside riskCorrelation spikes, VIX behavior, and the risk of a volatility expansionHow positioning can create rapid market spasms in single stocks like Nvidia and TeslaWhy this environment may represent a staging area for a larger moveTimestamps00:00 Violently going nowhere and hidden volatility01:01 The wildest calm market of all time04:00 Introduction to The Opex Effect and options driven flows05:29 The growth of options trading and zero DTE impact11:00 Dealer hedging, delta, and how options move stocks13:42 Why options expiration can trigger regime changes16:22 Intraday volatility versus close to close volatility20:18 Extreme rotation beneath the surface21:00 Measuring expiration size with the lobster claw rating25:00 Single stock positioning and March expiration risk27:35 Core one month correlation warning signals33:00 Rising put demand and what skew reveals36:45 Asset rotation in bonds, gold, bitcoin, and tech43:06 Correlation spikes and crash risk setup46:40 The quickening of volatility and single stock spasms

January 17, 2026Episode 311 hr 1 min

The Volatility Shift No One Sees | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

In this episode, Jack Forehand is joined by Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma to break down how options market flows are increasingly shaping equity market behavior. The conversation focuses on January options expiration, the explosive growth of zero DTE options, and why short term volatility dynamics matter even for long term investors. Using recent market examples, the episode explains how dealer hedging, gamma exposure, and correlation shifts can drive rallies, reversals, and sudden corrections that often seem disconnected from fundamentals.Topics covered• Why options volume has surged since 2020 and how zero DTE trading changed market structure• How dealer hedging flows influence stock prices, volatility, and intraday market moves• The Captain Condor collapse and what it reveals about selling volatility and hidden risks• Why options expiration can act as a catalyst for market turning points• The relationship between implied volatility, realized volatility, and market stability• Gamma exposure explained and how positive vs negative gamma affects price action• Correlation trades and why low index volatility can signal growing market fragility• What current options positioning says about risks and opportunities after January opexTimestamps00:00 Introduction and why options flows matter for all investors03:00 What the show is about and how options expiration drives market behavior06:00 The Captain Condor story and the dangers of selling volatility15:20 Why options volume has exploded since COVID18:45 How market makers hedge options and move underlying stocks22:00 Why options expiration forces positioning changes25:00 Volatility behavior before and after opex27:45 Gamma exposure and how it predicts short term volatility29:50 December opex review and what played out as expected36:00 Correlation trades and warning signals for corrections44:40 Single stock options, speculation, and market maker profits46:30 Quadrant view of call buying, volatility, and crowd behavior49:55 Implied vs realized volatility and why tension is building

December 13, 2025Episode 301 hr 9 min

7000 Magnet. 6800 Trap Door | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down what could be the largest options expiration ever and explain why December options flows, seasonality, and volatility dynamics matter so much for markets right now. The conversation explores how AI enthusiasm, equity rotation, and record options volume are colliding into year end, and what the options market is signaling about near term risk, upside, and potential turning points. From zero DTE trading and volatility suppression to the Santa Claus rally, JP Morgan’s collar trade, and the implications for stocks, small caps, and value, this episode offers a detailed look at how derivatives are shaping market behavior beneath the surface.Topics covered:Why December options expiration may be the biggest ever and why that mattersHow options market flows influence stock prices and volatilityThe role of zero DTE options in suppressing or amplifying market movesAI, capital cycles, and whether infrastructure builders will benefitSeasonality, the Santa Claus rally, and year end market dynamicsEquity rotation versus true risk off environmentsSmall caps, value stocks, and shifts away from mega cap techVolatility compression, hedging flows, and what happens after expirationThe JP Morgan collar trade and its impact on S&P 500 levelsKey upside and downside levels to watch into year end and JanuaryTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and why this could be the biggest options expiration ever02:15 AI enthusiasm, bubbles, and capital cycle risks05:00 Why price and time both matter in trading decisions06:45 Record options volume and the rise of zero DTE trading09:00 How options hedging flows move the underlying market11:20 Why December expiration can be a market turning point13:00 Volatility trends around options expiration14:30 Seasonality, holidays, and the Santa Claus rally17:00 Call heavy versus put heavy expirations19:30 Why extreme positioning can lead to reversals21:30 Size of December expiration compared to other months24:00 Lessons from November options expiration27:00 Nvidia, AI leaders, and options driven price behavior31:30 Equity rotation into small caps and value stocks34:00 Correlation, risk off signals, and market stability36:00 Key S&P 500 levels including 6800 and 700039:00 Fed uncertainty, rate cuts, and volatility outlook41:00 JP Morgan collar trade mechanics and market pinning44:00 Cheap upside calls and volatility suppression48:30 Options based ETFs and income strategies50:00 Oracle earnings, credit risk, and surprising options signals

November 15, 2025Episode 261 hr 9 min

The Two-Tailed Risk Trap | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the forces driving markets into November expiration. They cover the surge in volatility, Nvidia’s critical earnings event, the clustering of major catalysts, the behind-the-scenes hedging flows that shape price action, and why this expiration looks fundamentally different from the recent call-heavy cycles. The conversation blends macro uncertainty, options positioning, single-stock fragility, and the psychology of navigating markets that feel worse than they look.Topics Covered:• Why mega-cap AI names now dominate market behavior• Why volatility feels “back,” even with markets near all-time highs• The role of retail and institutional options activity in driving hedging flows• How delta, gamma, implied volatility, and time interact in maintaining hedges• Why November’s cluster of Nvidia earnings, VIX expiration, and OPEX is so important• How volatility can mean revert after options positions roll off• The October 10 volatility spasm and what it revealed• Resetting from call-heavy markets to put-skewed positioning• Macro uncertainty, rate-cut probabilities, and political risk• Credit default swap spikes and the broader AI narrative• The difficulty of timing bubbles and speculative extremes• Value investing pain points during high-volatility periods• Why fundamental sellers may finally be stepping in• What the options market implies heading into December’s massive expirationTimestamps:00:00 Mega-cap AI exposure and volatility setup01:00 Why markets feel worse than they look01:16 How hedging flows amplify market moves16:14 Nvidia’s earnings, VIX expiration, and the volatility cluster18:14 Why options volumes keep growing20:58 How small orders snowball into large market-maker hedges22:49 How OPEX resets positioning each month25:00 Negative gamma, volatility spikes, and event catalysts25:45 October’s volatility spasms explained27:34 Why November is the most put-skewed expiration in months32:00 Correlation breakdown and signs of fundamental selling33:44 Macro uncertainties, shutdown risk, rate cuts, and CDS spikes39:15 Market uncertainty, CPI gaps, and political anxiety41:00 AI cracks, CoreWeave trouble, and credit risk05:46 Bubble parallels and speculative excess07:00 The pain of value investing in runaway markets01:07:53 Wrap-up and closing comments

October 19, 2025Episode 251 hr 15 min

Fragile Rally. Big Vol Spike. Credit Risks Rising | What the Options Market Says About What's Next

In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand to break down the October options expiration and the surge in volatility that hit markets. They discuss record-breaking options volumes, the impact of zero-DTE trading, Trump’s market-moving tweet, and why the options market is increasingly driving short-term price action. Brent explains how positioning, gamma dynamics, and liquidity flows combine to create instability — and what that might mean for volatility into year-end.Topics covered:• Record 110 million options contracts traded and what it means for market structure• Why volatility spiked even though the S&P 500 barely fell• The role of dealer positioning and negative gamma in amplifying market swings• How the AI trade and single-stock call buying distorted implied volatility• The growing dominance of zero-DTE options and their destabilizing effects• What OPEX and VIX expirations tell us about volatility mean reversion• ETF leverage, financialization, and systemic risk• The relationship between correlation, dispersion trades, and crowding in AI names• Why volatility events now resemble “spasms” instead of slow corrections• How these options dynamics could influence the year-end “Santa Claus rally”Timestamps:00:00 Record options volume and volatility spike04:00 The AI call-buying frenzy and how it unwound10:00 Understanding dealer gamma and hedging flows12:00 OPEX, VIX expiration, and mean reversion in vol16:00 Event calendar and upcoming catalysts18:00 October OPEX setup and neutral call/put balance21:00 Seasonal trends and the “Santa Claus rally”27:00 Revisiting September’s predictions and what played out33:00 Market concentration and AI narrative40:00 Dispersion trades, correlation, and crowding44:00 Zero-DTE dynamics and their systemic impact50:00 Volatility spikes, leverage, and what comes next

September 14, 2025Episode 2457 min

Vol Is Crushed. Risk Isn’t | What the Largest OPEX In History Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent and Jack break down the September OPEX, which may be the largest ever. With volatility deeply suppressed, a record call skew, and the Fed meeting coinciding with VIX expiration, markets are set up for potential fireworks. The conversation explores how derivatives flows shape equities, why this expiration could be a turning point, and what investors should watch around key levels like 6,500.Topics CoveredRecord zero DTE volumes and their market impactWhy September OPEX may be the largest expiration everThe “vol pop zombie hunter” theme and what it signalsHow option dealer hedging drives equity flowsThe correlation between gamma positioning and volatilityMacro dynamics: rate cuts, liquidity, and potential bubble parallelsWhy call skew is extreme but call prices remain lowHow suppressed implied vol sets up risk of a volatility spikeThe VIX futures curve, ETF flows, and market dislocationsKey levels to watch: 6,500 and beyond for downside riskTimestamps00:00 – Zero DTE dominance and setup into September OPEX02:00 – “Vol Pop Zombie Hunter” theme explained06:00 – How options flows translate into equity moves11:00 – Options expiration cycles and turning points16:00 – Largest expirations and potential market reversals20:00 – Extreme call skew and positioning risks28:00 – Sector positioning and the lack of call demand33:00 – Correlation lows and implications for market breadth37:00 – Realized and implied volatility at historic lows43:00 – VIX futures curve, ETFs, and contango dynamics50:00 – Risks below 6,500 and the role of JP Morgan’s collar53:00 – The destabilizing effect of disappearing zero DTE flows