The OPEX Effect

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Oct 2026

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The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios.

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October 11, 2026Episode 401 hr 0 min

The 10-Year Hit 5.35%. OpenAI Came Up $20 Billion Short. So Why Is Nobody Buying Puts?

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma examines what could disrupt the stock market’s calm as rising rates and fading AI enthusiasm meet October options expiration. Put selling still supports equities, but a shift toward downside protection could change that picture. On this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain how dealer hedging, gamma and short-dated options influence the stocks investors own. They review what changed since September, why index volatility can stay low while risks build underneath, and the positioning signals Brent wants to see before making a stronger bearish call. The discussion closes with his conditional upside and downside scenarios for the S&P 500. Topics covered: Why weakening AI leadership matters when the broader market lacks participation How call buying creates dealer hedging flows and potential gamma squeezes Why options expiration can change market direction and volatility The growth of 0DTE trading and its possible effects on market behavior Why October’s expiration looks relatively typical despite the macro uncertainty Passive inflows, buying the dip and the changing risks inside the S&P 500 What net put selling reveals about sentiment and ongoing market support Falling tech call skew and the debate over AI revenue expectations and subscription economics Why the speed of rising yields matters and falling oil has not brought rates down Brent Kochuba’s 7,700 S&P risk pivot and the conditions behind his bullish and bearish scenarios SpotGamma’s Opening Setup report Follow SpotGamma on X Chapters: 00:00 Rising rates, AI leadership and equity calm 07:23 Options volume, dealer hedging and gamma squeezes 13:07 Gamma, expiration and changing market behavior 18:17 Who trades 0DTE and what it means for volatility 22:21 October expiration and the market’s quiet positioning 26:50 Passive investing and changing index risk 31:14 Reviewing September’s signals and outcomes 37:30 Low realized volatility and SpotGamma’s flow signals 43:28 Correlation, upside risk and AI economics 49:31 AI expectations, positioning and bond-market signals 55:31 The 7,700 risk pivot and scenarios into year-end Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network . No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

September 12, 2026Episode 3959 min

Big Rally Collides with Oil and Rate Reality | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to break down September options expiration, the S&P 500's negative gamma risk, and what options positioning reveals about potential stock market volatility. They explore how rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and shifting AI sentiment could interact with a major expiration to change the market's direction. Brent explains why he measures this expiration at roughly $2 trillion rather than the $9 trillion making headlines, why he is watching the S&P 500's 7,600 level, and how falling technology stock volatility changes the opportunity set for options. Brent Kochuba on Twitter https://x.com/brentkochuba SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com Topics covered: How growing options volume and market maker hedging influence underlying stock prices. Why options expiration can change market trends and volatility as existing hedges unwind. The difference between headline options notional and SpotGamma's roughly $2 trillion delta-adjusted expiration estimate. What August's technology reset and Jackson Hole reaction reveal about investor positioning. How cheaper AI models, falling token prices, and public backlash complicate the technology investment story. Why declining semiconductor volatility and changing dispersion point to a potential market inflection. How negative gamma below S&P 7,600 could amplify selling, with 7,350 emerging as another level to watch. Why positive gamma in individual stocks could offset some of the index market's instability. How rising oil prices, Treasury yields, and stock correlations could challenge AI optimism and traditional stock-bond diversification. What CPI, the Fed meeting, VIX expiration, and midterm elections mean for hedging demand and options pricing. Timestamps: 00:00 Why Brent sees downside risk near market highs 05:19 Bessent's "I'm the house" comment meets rising yields 10:38 Options exchange growth and the bear market question 15:29 Why OPEX changes market behavior and how to measure its size 20:40 What August's tech reset and Jackson Hole revealed 24:43 Can AI earnings overcome rising macro risks? 30:14 The tech wedge, falling semiconductor volatility, and gamma risk 35:20 How expiration could reduce negative gamma exposure 39:21 Oil, Treasury yields, and stock correlations move together 44:22 Why the reason interest rates rise matters for stocks 49:48 Election hedges, Fed uncertainty, and returning put demand 54:43 S&P 7,600 and positioning for volatility in either direction Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

August 15, 2026Episode 3851 min

Big Semi Decline. Big Rally. Big Macro Risk | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba break down how options expiration, 0DTE trading, dealer gamma and leveraged flows are shaping the stock market. They examine the shift from AI-driven speculation toward interest rates, the July tech volatility reset, and why Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole could determine the market's next major move. Brent Kochuba and SpotGamma on X https://x.com/spotgamma SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com/ Topics covered Why the options market is shifting its focus from AI and token growth toward interest rates and macro data How record options volume creates hidden stock and futures flows through dealer hedging Why stock market trends and volatility frequently change around options expiration How 0DTE options have transformed SPX and Nasdaq trading and increased short-term mean reversion What the roughly $1 trillion August options expiration says about current investor positioning How July's leverage unwind contributed to sharp declines in Nasdaq, semiconductors and memory stocks Why leveraged ETFs, margin calls and options positioning can amplify moves that investors attribute to fundamentals What falling tech implied volatility and record-low put-call ratios say about AI speculation and investor risk appetite How the VIX term structure and the collapse in stock dispersion point to a broader, more stable market Why Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole, bond positioning and dealer gamma could create a major move in either direction Timestamps 00:00 Why the market is shifting from AI to interest rates 05:12 Record options volume and how dealer hedging moves stocks 11:10 Why market trends often flip around options expiration 15:51 How large is the August options expiration? 20:12 What July's tech volatility spasm taught us about positioning 28:03 Why tech implied volatility is falling as AI speculation cools 33:21 The VIX crush and what the volatility curve is pricing 38:25 How July OPEX helped trigger the great dispersion unwind 44:21 Nvidia, Jackson Hole and the volatility event markets are pricing 50:00 Gamma levels, downside risk and the market's key guardrails Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

July 11, 2026Episode 371 hr 4 min

Not Since the Dot-Com Bubble | The Vol Signal Flashing for the First Time in 20 Years

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma is back for The OPEX Effect to explain why July options expiration could remove a major source of market support and open the door to a volatility spike or stock market correction. We examine positive gamma, ultra-low S&P 500 implied volatility, near-record-low correlation, extreme Nasdaq volatility, AI stock dispersion and why the current setup resembles July 2024 before a 10% drawdown. Brent Kochuba on X https://x.com/spotgamma SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com Main topics covered Why markets have become numb to geopolitical risk, war headlines and oil volatility How market-maker hedging, positive gamma and systematic options selling stabilize stocks Why OPEX and VIX expiration can create a window of weakness or a window of strength How ETF growth, leveraged products and new listings create additional options exposure Why July OPEX is small for the S&P 500 but meaningful for AI and semiconductor stocks What happened to SpaceX volatility after traders sold expensive calls and puts Why expensive implied volatility can make put options lose money even when a stock falls What extreme COR1M and dispersion reveal about the divide beneath the market averages Why S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection while Nasdaq volatility resembles a meme stock Why the VXN-VIX spread and July 2024 analog have Brent preparing for a potential correction Timestamps 00:00 Why markets are ignoring geopolitical risk 05:16 How systematic options flows stabilize stocks 09:33 Gamma squeezes and why OPEX can reset market trends 13:37 Positive gamma and suppressed daily volatility 17:41 How new listings and ETFs feed into options markets 21:48 Why July OPEX is concentrated in single stocks 25:48 Reviewing June guardrails and the AI stock correction 30:39 July gamma support and the post-OPEX window of weakness 38:34 Near-record-low correlation and a fragile market setup 44:20 S&P 500 volatility is priced for perfection 48:31 Why options are serially underpricing volatility 52:31 How AI could reshape the Nasdaq and its volatility 57:54 Why July 2024 may be the key OPEX analog 01:02:02 Brent's market risk outlook and hedging plan Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

June 13, 2026Episode 361 hr 7 min

SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. They discuss why SpaceX may trade more on flows than fundamentals, how call buying could create a gamma squeeze, and why June OPEX, VIX expiration, FOMC, oil, Iran headlines, and index inclusion could all collide at once. Brent Kochuba on X https://x.com/spotgamma SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com Topics covered: Why SpaceX is a flows game at the start of trading How the SpaceX IPO could affect liquidity across mega cap tech stocks Why fundamentals may not matter when index flows and forced buying dominate The role of Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P 500 index decisions in SpaceX trading How options could create a gamma squeeze in SpaceX Why dealer hedging flows can push stocks higher or lower What June options expiration could mean for the S&P 500 Why VIX expiration and FOMC create a key market window How Core1M signaled the recent volatility spasm Why expensive calls, not put buying, drove the recent market stress The key S&P 500 levels Brent is watching into OPEX How oil, rates, inflation, and Fed policy could affect market volatility Why Nasdaq options pricing is diverging from the S&P 500 How SpaceX index inclusion could widen the gap between Nasdaq and the S&P What would make Brent add protection or look for another short-term market correction Timestamps: 00:00 Opening clips and the SpaceX flow setup 05:27 Elon Musk net worth after the SpaceX IPO 07:13 SpaceX, liquidity, Mag Seven selling, and index demand 12:48 Why SpaceX may trade on flows before fundamentals 17:59 What options trading could change for SpaceX 22:05 How call buying can create a gamma squeeze 28:24 Why June OPEX matters more than a normal expiration 33:55 VIX expiration, FOMC, and market path dependency 37:20 The Core1M signal and the recent volatility spasm 41:22 The S&P 500 gamma map and key risk levels 46:25 Why expensive calls drove the market stress 50:14 Oil, rates, inflation, and the Fed setup 57:03 The JPMorgan collar and the 6900 to 7000 support zone 58:32 Nasdaq versus S&P 500 after the SpaceX IPO 01:03:14 Brent’s summary, SpaceX gamma squeeze risk, and the next market setup

May 9, 2026Episode 351 hr 6 min

The Melt Up That No One Expected | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX call volume, zero DTE options, dealer gamma, VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings, oil risk, AI CapEx, and why options flows may help explain both the market’s recent melt-up and the potential for a volatility shift after OPEX. Guest Links Brent Kochuba on X https://x.com/spotgamma SpotGamma https://spotgamma.com/ Topics Covered Why the market has ignored oil shocks and geopolitical risk while AI earnings dominate investor attention How AI CapEx, semiconductors and mega-cap tech have driven a powerful melt-up in stocks Why options volume and zero DTE trading are increasingly important for all investors How dealer hedging, delta and gamma can affect stock market moves Why options expiration can create short-term turning points in markets and volatility What the May OPEX setup says about call-heavy positioning in the S&P 500 Why single-stock options activity in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple, Amazon and AI-related names matters How record SPX call volume is being driven by short-dated options flows Why Brent is watching VIX expiration, NVIDIA earnings and May 19 to May 20 for volatility expansion What oil, VIX, correlation and dispersion are signaling about market risk Timestamps 00:00 Intro: SPX call volume, call-heavy positioning and transient options flows 00:57 Are we in melt-up mode? 05:29 AI, UFOs and how fast market narratives are changing 09:00 Why options flows matter more for everyday investors 13:39 Could SpaceX become the next huge options market? 16:00 How dealer hedging, delta and gamma move through the market 20:44 Why OPEX can become a turning point for stocks and volatility 23:22 Why May OPEX is so call heavy 28:07 The market rally into May expiration 33:00 AI rebranding, meme behavior and downside headline risk 36:07 Reviewing last month’s oil and volatility setup 40:17 How the war flipped market leadership back to tech 44:13 Dealer gamma support in the S&P 500 49:19 Single-stock gamma in NVIDIA, Tesla, Apple and Amazon 51:06 Record SPX call volume and the role of zero DTE 54:55 Semiconductor, AI and memory call volume 57:50 From bearish positioning to peak-bull dispersion 59:22 Oil, the S&P 500 and changing correlations 01:03:06 COR1M, dispersion risk and when Brent considers hedging 01:04:57 Brent’s key takeaways for May OPEX and volatility expansion

April 11, 2026Episode 341 hr 8 min

The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move. They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration. Topics covered: Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertainty The “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quickly How options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock prices Why call options are historically cheap heading into earnings The mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioning Why options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for markets The divergence between oil prices and equity volatility What the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioning The role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market ranges Key resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upside Timestamps: 00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos 04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations 07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements 11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points 13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship 15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior 18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls 20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones 22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead 24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance 27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows 30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship 33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility 34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation 36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx 37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock 39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever 41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind 43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy 45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatility For more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work: https://spotgamma.com Follow Brent on Twitter: https://twitter.com/spotgamma

March 20, 2026Episode 331 hr 9 min

A 3% Drop from VIX 40 | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand explain why markets appear calm despite heavy hedging, and what that disconnect could mean for a potential volatility spike and downside move ahead. Brent Kochuba on Twitter https://twitter.com/SpotGamma SpotGamma Website https://spotgamma.com Topics covered in this episode • Why volatility looks elevated beneath the surface even as markets remain relatively calm • The growing gap between implied volatility VIX and realized volatility and what it signals • How options expiration OPEX can create turning points in both price and volatility • Why current positioning is unusually put-heavy and what that means for downside risk • The role of market makers and hedging flows in driving market moves • How geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict are changing options behavior and hedging demand • Why correlation is spiking and what it says about investors moving from stock picking to asset allocation • The breakdown of traditional diversification including the 60/40 portfolio • How credit markets and liquidity risks could amplify equity volatility • The impact of zero DTE options and why traders are shifting to longer-duration hedges • The significance of the JP Morgan collar trade and key levels to watch into month-end • Why volatility spikes often follow periods of suppressed market movement • The potential for a sharp upside rally if geopolitical risks suddenly resolve • How options positioning can help both traders and long-term investors with timing decisions Timestamps 00:00 Volatility premium vs low market movement disconnect 01:00 Why markets feel calm despite rising risks 05:20 Explosion in options volume and impact of Monday Wednesday Friday expirations 07:00 How market maker hedging flows drive price movements 08:40 Dynamic hedging and why options impact evolves over time 09:20 Why OPEX can trigger market turning points 10:30 VIX expiration effects and short-term volatility suppression 13:00 Negative gamma and how it amplifies market volatility 14:10 Why hedging demand remains high despite OPEX clearing 16:00 Jump risk scenario and potential VIX spike to 40 17:10 Shift from zero DTE trading to longer-term hedging 18:00 Put-heavy positioning across equities and indices 20:40 Size and significance of the current OPEX event 22:20 VIX spike dynamics around expiration 23:40 JP Morgan collar trade and key SPX levels 25:00 Why OPEX often marks short-term market lows or highs 28:30 Review of prior OPEX signals and market setup 30:00 Rising correlation and shift to asset allocation mindset 32:00 Dispersion breakdown and implications for equities 34:00 Software sector volatility and AI disruption narrative 36:30 Using options signals for better timing decisions 39:00 Correlation spike and risk-off behavior across markets 41:30 Why investors are avoiding calls and piling into puts 44:30 Cross-asset correlation breakdown and bond hedge failure 48:00 Credit market risks and spillover into equities 49:00 Extreme VIX vs realized volatility spread 50:50 Why realized volatility remains unusually low 52:30 Oil, inflation, and macro feedback loops

February 15, 2026Episode 321 hr 6 min

Violently Going Nowhere | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves beneath the surface tell a very different story. From software stocks and AI disruption to gold, silver, bonds, and the Nasdaq, they analyze how dealer hedging flows, gamma positioning, implied volatility, and options expiration cycles may be shaping market behavior more than headlines suggest. If you want to understand why markets can feel wildly volatile yet go nowhere, and how options positioning can influence short term price action, this episode provides a deep dive into the mechanics driving today’s market environment. Main Topics Covered Why the market feels like the wildest calm market of all time Massive single stock volatility versus muted index performance Software stock weakness, AI disruption, and the so called SaaS apocalypse The surge in options volume and the rise of zero DTE in major stocks How dealer hedging, delta, gamma, and volatility flows impact equities The historical tendency for markets to flip direction after options expiration Realized volatility versus intraday volatility and what is being hidden Beneath the surface rotation into value, small caps, energy, and defense Gold and silver volatility spikes and what options volume signaled at the top Rising demand for puts and what skew is telling us about downside risk Correlation spikes, VIX behavior, and the risk of a volatility expansion How positioning can create rapid market spasms in single stocks like Nvidia and Tesla Why this environment may represent a staging area for a larger move Timestamps 00:00 Violently going nowhere and hidden volatility 01:01 The wildest calm market of all time 04:00 Introduction to The Opex Effect and options driven flows 05:29 The growth of options trading and zero DTE impact 11:00 Dealer hedging, delta, and how options move stocks 13:42 Why options expiration can trigger regime changes 16:22 Intraday volatility versus close to close volatility 20:18 Extreme rotation beneath the surface 21:00 Measuring expiration size with the lobster claw rating 25:00 Single stock positioning and March expiration risk 27:35 Core one month correlation warning signals 33:00 Rising put demand and what skew reveals 36:45 Asset rotation in bonds, gold, bitcoin, and tech 43:06 Correlation spikes and crash risk setup 46:40 The quickening of volatility and single stock spasms

January 17, 2026Episode 311 hr 1 min

The Volatility Shift No One Sees | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

In this episode, Jack Forehand is joined by Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma to break down how options market flows are increasingly shaping equity market behavior. The conversation focuses on January options expiration, the explosive growth of zero DTE options, and why short term volatility dynamics matter even for long term investors. Using recent market examples, the episode explains how dealer hedging, gamma exposure, and correlation shifts can drive rallies, reversals, and sudden corrections that often seem disconnected from fundamentals. Topics covered • Why options volume has surged since 2020 and how zero DTE trading changed market structure • How dealer hedging flows influence stock prices, volatility, and intraday market moves • The Captain Condor collapse and what it reveals about selling volatility and hidden risks • Why options expiration can act as a catalyst for market turning points • The relationship between implied volatility, realized volatility, and market stability • Gamma exposure explained and how positive vs negative gamma affects price action • Correlation trades and why low index volatility can signal growing market fragility • What current options positioning says about risks and opportunities after January opex Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why options flows matter for all investors 03:00 What the show is about and how options expiration drives market behavior 06:00 The Captain Condor story and the dangers of selling volatility 15:20 Why options volume has exploded since COVID 18:45 How market makers hedge options and move underlying stocks 22:00 Why options expiration forces positioning changes 25:00 Volatility behavior before and after opex 27:45 Gamma exposure and how it predicts short term volatility 29:50 December opex review and what played out as expected 36:00 Correlation trades and warning signals for corrections 44:40 Single stock options, speculation, and market maker profits 46:30 Quadrant view of call buying, volatility, and crowd behavior 49:55 Implied vs realized volatility and why tension is building

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