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The Milk Check

The Milk Check

Hosted by T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders

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18

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Aug 2026

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Experienced dairy traders discuss current market trends that affect payments to dairy farmers.

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August 31, 202631 min

Powder pops. WPC 80 slips. Dairy proteins defy gravity.

Nonfat rallied nearly 30 cents in about 15 days. Can that rally can hold? WPC80 is showing its first real signs of softness in a while. Is it a seasonal slowdown or a sign? And milk proteins are still finding support. Will demand stay strong as new products come online, or will the economy finally put a lid on protein? In episode 105 of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III and the T.C. Jacoby & Co. team focus on two of the busiest corners of the dairy market right now: nonfat and protein. In this episode, we cover: Why low inventories could keep powder markets volatile How exports, Mexico and production interruptions contributed to the move How the price gap between whey and milk proteins is encouraging reformulation What consumer spending, GLP-1 use and alternative proteins, and the economy could mean for dairy protein demand But this is still a market with plenty of unanswered questions. Listen as the team at T.C. Jacoby & Co. shares their view and outlook on what’s coming and why. Listen to The Milk Check episode 105: Powder pops. WPC 80 slips. Dairy proteins defy gravity. Also available on: Amazon Music , Apple Podcasts , Spotify , and YouTube . Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check. Diego Carvallo: We’ve had a 28 or 30 cent nonfat rally in a matter of about 15 days that caught a lot of people by surprise. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: We are going to have a very focused market discussion. We’re recording this on August 24th, and the reality is, so far in the milk side of the business, things have been relatively underwhelming. We’re expecting milk to tighten up. It has, but only in a very normal way, so nothing huge to talk about. Cheese has been a non-event. The cheese market is very quiet right now. We’re expecting it to stay quiet. But there’s been a lot going on in nonfat and a lot going on in protein. So we’re gonna focus on nonfat and protein today. Diego, let’s go ahead and get started on nonfat. What’s been going on in the nonfat market, and what do you think is gonna happen next? Diego Carvallo: It’s been a very interesting market, Ted. We’ve had a 28 or 30 cent nonfat rally in a matter of about 15 days that caught a lot of people by surprise. We went from about $1.45 per pound to $1.75. And now we’re slightly below that. We’re close to the 1.70, but the CME spot market has remained at a premium. I think what led to this rally were a couple of things. One is when we got to 1.45, we became very competitive for skim milk powder. And we know for a fact that a few of the large producers in the U.S. made very interesting sales for exports after having exported very little for this year so far. That helped manufacturers and the whole market, find some sort of psychological support to prices. And then, at the same time, we noticed how several of the manufacturers were in a relatively good spot when it comes to sales for August and September. They were not having burdensom inventories, and they were pretty proud with their offers. So I think the whole market realized that Mexico still had a few shorts that they needed to cover. We made some international exports after not exporting for a while, so I think the whole market found some support and it rallied quite a bit. I was also surprised to see that rally. I think we got to the $1.75 and we started seeing pushback from Mexico. We started not being competitive in international markets again. And I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a correction in the coming days. At the same time, there are some rumors and also facts of production interruptions by some manufacturers. That also got people nervous, and I think that also contributed to the market rally. Ted Jacoby III: What do you mean by production interruptions? Diego Carvallo: There’s news that have gone around about some plants having recalls and some also production issues that have delayed [00:03:00] their releases. That added to a market that was nervous already. Ted Jacoby III: So, basically, a supply chain that has been relatively low on inventory to begin with, any kind of potential supply disruption such as another FDA recall or something that at least holds that product for a little while, the market’s just pretty sensitive to that, and that’s causing this extra volatility. Diego Carvallo: Exactly. Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Jake, what has this volatility been doing to the hedgability of our nonfat market? Jacob Menge: We’ve seen pretty poor CME NDPSR correlation compared to history. I don’t know if poor correlation is the word, but if you’re in short-term hedges you have a coin flip here of how well that hedge is gonna work for you. But in general the market’s actually been pricing in lower volatility than what we have actually realized. That’s over a multi-month period. So there might be a week where you are along for the ride of a really sharp move one way or the other. But in general I would say it’s been fairly functional, the market has. Weird low volume in some of this volatility. I think that’s probably the one note is you’ll have really volatile markets like this. I would have expected better volume like we saw with our crazy run-up in February, March, whenever that was. Ted Jacoby III: What do you read into the low volume? Jacob Menge: Yeah, I don’t know. They’re numb to it now, after what everybody experienced in March, a quick little, 15, 20 cent pop doesn’t scratch the itch anymore. The market probably was a little bit better covered than they were back in February, March. So, even though the pop happened, more participants could sit on the sideline without panicking yet. Now, if we continue at these prices for another month or something like that, there’s gonna have to be more buyers, and I would imagine that leads to some more participation. Ted Jacoby III: Diego, how do you see this market playing out over the next three to six months? Do you think the volatility comes out of the market, or do you think we’re on this rollercoaster and we still gotta stay buckled up? Diego Carvallo: I think we’re gonna still have volatility, Ted. And the main reason is Europe, which is a significant player for the SMP market has gone through very bad weather. It’s gotten very hot. Solids in the milk are going down, and for that reason the cheese plants are having to use more milk. So, there’s fewer volumes of liquid milk hitting the dryer at a period where we have little inventories in Europe, so I think that’s gonna contribute to high volatility. And the same scenario can be said of the U.S. We don’t have much inventory. The manufacturers are sitting in a good spot in terms of availability. They do not have too much pressure to sell. So, any type of disruption to supply chains, production, or any pickup in demand, it’s gonna result in big swings, both ways, not only up. Josh White: I think that our seasonality has shifted. We’re already hearing rumblings that there’s some Ramadan buying beginning [00:06:00] to happen. That’s business not too many years ago didn’t happen until the first quarter. That helped create a outlet to clean your inventories before the heavy seasonal production for Europe and the U.S. Now, that business is trying to get in front of Christmas business and Chinese New Year business, and it’s coming at the worst time, when the U.S. is in a short squeeze, Europe is going through a heat wave, New Zealand’s not yet completely online, and it’s keeping things tight. My personal opinion is that we’re drowning in nonfat within the first quarter. We don’t have anywhere to go with it. This whole phenomenon’s been set up that we’ve been selling nonfat domestically somewhere that used to take skim solids. Somewhere in the margins, people are buying powder that usually interchange between powder or cheap skim, that it may have been buying skim more recently. Right now is the tightest time ever to be selling UF products, yet everyone’s responding with incremental UF production at the same time that everyone’s launching more UF competitive products. That’s gonna be saturated at the exact same time we don’t have anywhere to go with powder. Q1 looks ugly to me from a skim solid standpoint. Ramadan is like the second week of February or slightly before, which means that Chinese New Year, they’re within a few weeks of each other. Last year they were already bumping into each other, but there was plenty of inventory. Don Street: You get through October, typically we would say U.S. Christmas demand, certainly for nonfat, is filled at that point because you’re manufacturing things, cookies, crackers, whatever, and that would also be your lead time to ship. So, you could even see, if you’re right, this convergence to the downside in November, December, even before Q1. Josh White: I think markets have been really smart, too. Whenever we find the points at which we think it happens, it seems like the market’s anticipating, and we’ve been trading anticipatory markets, and it’s moving a little bit in advance of that. This sounds really smart until you realize you’re already in it. I think we are already in it, and that’s created a little bit of the bump that we’ve seen right now as everyone’s trying to get in front of short covering. Every sell-off I think is gonna be met With buying for the next month or so. Ted Jacoby III: Everybody, we will be right back after these messages. Diego Carvallo: I’m Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co. T.C. Jacoby & Co. specializes in international dairy markets. For new customers that haven’t done business with Jacoby, I would tell them that we can provide them with many of the powders, dairy products that they consume, not only with the physical product, but we can also help them mitigate their risk. We know dairy. We know the main players. We know the main providers for the whole value chain. We are one of the strongest players in the U.S. market because we have contact all the way from the farmer moving the liquid milk all the way to the end users that buy the end products. I am [00:09:00] Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co., and we bring dairy to the world. Ted Jacoby III: We’re gonna come back to nonfat in a second, but I’m gonna switch over to protein and ask Josh what he’s seeing in the protein market, and then we’re gonna talk about if there’s any relationship between the two. Josh, what’s going on in protein, whey proteins, milk proteins? Has this market changed at all, or are we still on the bullish ride? Josh White: I’m not really ready to call a change in the long-term trend, but the market has softened, particularly for WPC80 over the past few weeks. What’s difficult to read, is this the product of the summer holiday season and just a little bit of a Q3 slowdown in B2B buyer activity and are things fine on the consumer end? Ted, it’s a tough-to-read market at the moment, but I would say over the last several weeks to a month, we’ve definitely seen more availability for products like WPC80 in the market, and the market’s really trying to digest that. After many quarters of higher pricing than the prior quarter, we’re now in a spot where if you’re out there looking for an extra load or two, you might be able to achieve it at a price better than you did in the prior quarter or where your quarterly contracts are. It’s the first time we’ve experienced that in a while. I don’t know that I’m ready to call that the end of the long-term uptrend in dairy protein, in particular whey protein, but it certainly feels like we could retrace a bit. Let’s take a peek at one or two variables that could be contributing to this. One is just the seasonality of it. We’re coming out of the summer holiday season. A lot of buyers, particularly in the B2B transactions, have been away from their desks on their summer holidays and are now starting to return to the desk and take an assessment of how their supply chain and inventory situation looks. I don’t think that’s limited just to protein. We’re seeing that across all of our dairy commodities. And over the last seven to 10 days, some of the activity with customers has picked up a bit. Secondly, we’ve priced ourselves out of the international market, or at least the European pricing and the U.S. pricing has achieved levels that have slowed down the international appetite. And as a result, we’ve seen that reflected in our export numbers. Does that create enough incremental and additional volume for the U.S. consumer that puts us in a spot where there’s extra product available? And maybe we will see a little bit more of an aggressive offer to try to clear some incremental volume that was leaving for an international buyer previously. Or have we actually tested a point where the consumer products have to increase their prices and the consumers are going to push back or are starting to push back? Anecdotally, talking to the people that are more more retail end-user-facing, it feels like their demand’s fine. It feels like they are expecting promotion activity for the fourth quarter. They’re not indicating any type of slowdown. We’ll see after a month or two where this thing settles out, but it feels like a few more incremental offers than it does customers pushing back. But I don’t know that every manufacturer out there would [00:12:00] describe that the same. The market’s a bit confused right now. Ted Jacoby III: Do you think that there’s been any changes on the supply side? Josh White: No, not substantial changes on the supply side. I don’t. Ted Jacoby III: So we might just be in that point where everybody’s looking at their inventories, right-sizing their inventories. If they have a few extra loads, they slow down their buying a little bit, but they’re gonna wait for the fall orders, which tend to be heavier than the rest of the year, to come through to see whether they need to do any more adjustments or if they’re good to go forward. Josh White: There’s like a poker hand of possibilities right now. You know, on the one hand, we’ve seen more product launches and new product introductions outside of the traditional health and wellness or sports nutrition space than we’ve ever seen before. Has that created a vacuum effect, and has that overstated demand a bit? Some of those products might win, some of those products might lose, but ultimately, to launch them, you have to produce them, and that creates a pipeline fill and a vacuum effect. Has that overstated demand? Am I right that we were just in a summer slowdown and people may have depleted their working inventories a bit, and we’ll see reorders happen over the next month or two? Did we kill enough international demand to saturate the U.S. consumer and the U.S. market? Did we see enough incremental production that outperformed against forecasts? We just had the July milk production report released. In June, numbers were revised higher. We’ve got plenty of milk. I think most of us would’ve argued that July should’ve been a bit slow given all the heat we experienced in Middle America, yet we reported year-over-year milk production growth against very, very strong comparables. Did we outperform our production expectations? Or has the consumer finally started to push back? And I really don’t know the answer to that, and I imagine it’s a combination of all of them. We’ll just see as we go into the fourth quarter what that means. The price responsiveness to some of these signals is going to change. A larger percentage of this dairy protein, and whey protein in particular, is being used in applications that are relatively new to our demand profile. We’re seeing it added as an ingredient in snack foods and as an ingredient in food manufacturing-type products. That’s something that trades much differently than the quarterly priced sports nutrition market. To digest exactly how shifts on the CPG level might reflect in what the current S&D situation feels like, that’s uncharted territory for us in a lot of ways. Ted Jacoby III: You mentioned WPC 80. Has whey protein isolate been weakening in the same way? Josh White: No, WPI has been well-reported to be pretty stable. I don’t believe that’s going to change in the short run. I really think the higher you go in terms of the value of the product at the moment, the more specialized and ingredient-based it is. And it feels like the majority of the WPI is graduating into an area that has much less price elasticity than the traditional WPC80 products. So, at the moment, it’s held fairly strong. We haven’t experienced any major production shifts in WPI for over a quarter. And as [00:15:00] long as we don’t test the consumer’s price tolerance anytime soon, it sure feels like they’re gonna hang in there and continue to buy the product and prices will remain firm. Ted Jacoby III: What about milk proteins? Have we seen any slowdown on the milk protein side or has that demand stayed strong as well? Diego Carvallo: It stayed strong, Ted. We’re actually seeing growing demand of companies and projects switching from WPC80 to MPC80, 85, and 90. There’s a greater amount of new projects asking us for samples on MPCs than WPCs. What we have seen is that whenever nonfat moved from let’s say $2 to $1.45, the price of MPC also moved lower by a smaller degree, but it still moved a little bit lower because the manufacturers had the wiggle room to make their offers a little bit more competitive. Ted Jacoby III: So, in the whey protein markets, one of the things we’re anticipating and we’re already starting to see is that for those annual contracts, the multipliers are probably gonna go up relative to the whey market, probably quite significantly. Are we seeing the same thing in the MPC market as well? Diego Carvallo: Yes. The multiple has strengthened. MPC 85, as a reference, it usually traded for many years at, let’s say, two and a half plus a premium of 70 cents, 60 cents, and I think it’s now closer to three times nonfat plus maybe another 75, maybe 80 cents. It’s definitely strengthening. Ted Jacoby III: Further production of whey protein is restricted by additional cheese capacity. So, unless we’re gonna build another big cheese plant, we may not be able to create much more whey protein production, at least here in the U.S. Whereas with milk proteins, it’s easier and cheaper to switch over, let’s say, a nonfat plant and make it a milk protein plant. So, increasing that capacity is gonna be a lot easier. How’s that gonna play out? Do you think that MPC multiples will stay strong even as we see added MPC production? Diego Carvallo: I agree that there’s gonna be more supply, but I think demand is gonna be higher than the additional supply that we’re seeing, at least for the coming two to three years. I think multiples are gonna be long-term stronger than they are right now. Josh White: I take the other side in this particular instance. The UF side has a different demand profile than the dry product side with the RTD movement and so many launches and so much interest in ultra-filtrated liquid products. That creates opportunity for the market to find some imbalances, and for the milk protein side to feel more commoditized seasonally. You’ve got a tremendous buyer in the cheese side that can step in and take solids and well support the multiple when it makes economical sense. But the profile for making UF or MPCs, relative to traditional nonfat and skim, could result [00:18:00] in more drying seasonally of MPCs that could make that basis a bit more volatile than what we’ve experienced in the past. Ted Jacoby III: I’m anticipating that protein demand stays strong and maybe even continues to grow internationally. The demand for milk proteins will continue to go up because it’ll be slower to see whey protein production go up than these demand increases. So, I’m splitting the difference between the two of you guys. I do think that we will switch over nonfat production to MPC production in various plants throughout the country, but I also agree with Diego. The demand is gonna be there. There’s going to be a lot of new products that wanna be able to say, “Hey, we have 30 grams of protein in our product, too.” But they can’t really make it cost-effective on the whey side, so they’re gonna do it on the milk protein side. That’ll keep things strong. But the pressure’s gonna be there. Jake, do you have any thoughts? Jacob Menge: None. Outside my Area of expertise. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks. You’re a big help. Jacob Menge: I’m just being honest. Ted Jacoby III: Tristan, do you have any thoughts? Tristan Suellentrop: Yes. At what point does MPC get expensive enough that you lose the substitution advantage over WP80? Ted Jacoby III: Josh, I think you’re the one who needs to answer it. Tristan Suellentrop: It’s a hard question. Josh White: The simple math is the per unit protein value. We would start there. They’re relatively similar from a total protein value. WPC80 market is trading between $12 and $13 a pound, and you’re about half that for your MPC 85. They are not the same product. They have different functionality characteristics and different nutritional profiles. Similar in many applications, but different in many ways, which means when you rank the highest valued application for your whey proteins to the most competitive value for the whey proteins, the MPCs would need to compete in the final tranche of your traditional WPC consumer tier. It means that MPCs do not need to achieve WPC pricing to start to get pushback. The pushback begins long before it achieves parity. The MPC market has the opportunity to balance itself much differently. The MPC can toggle between a dry product and a liquid product, depending on where that demand pull is. And right now the real growth in the dairy category and the superstar as of late has been the ultrafiltrated products. I think that most households have some version of this in their refrigerator now. It’s a growing category, but it’s also becoming a highly competitive market. You’re gonna see some volatility. I think to Diego’s point, we are seeing some CPG applications and some sports nutrition applications reformulating where they can, but not on a one-for-one basis. They’re adding it as an additional ingredient or increasing the inclusion rate of the milk proteins relative to the whey proteins, but they’re not one-for-one interchangeable. We can afford to see MPCs go up several dollars a pound or WPCs come down several dollars a pound without eliminating the advantage to explore reformulation in MPCs for those that can use it. Ted Jacoby III: Mike, do you have any thoughts? Mike Brown: I just came back from Interstate [00:21:00] Milk Processors meeting. Lots of talk between the whey guys and the MPC guys on demands and expectation for further substitution of WPCs with MPCs where it can happen. There’s places that really works. There’s places it doesn’t work quite so well, particularly in some beverages. As long as there’s a cost advantage, we’ll see it. It’s already happening in some of the protein ice creams, for example. Ted Jacoby III: So, what’s the prognosis when it comes to proteins? Demand stays strong, but we continue to produce more concentrated proteins, at least on the milk side? How is it all gonna play out from a price perspective, let’s say in the next six months? Josh, it sounds like your thoughts are: we’re steady as she goes. We’ve maybe reached a point where we’re range-bound rather than just ratcheting higher? Josh White: I think you just walked me into a trap that is absolutely gonna blow up in about six or nine months when this podcast is still being played. But right now, the story is over the next six months, I believe we will see lower whey protein pricing. Over the next six months, I’m not 100% convinced, but I would still call the milk proteins as bullish. What we need to decide then, was that a retracement? Was that a pullback in price? And with enough time, the consumer’s going to respond? Or are we in an unhealthier macroeconomic environment than any of us expected, and will that influence the dairy proteins or not? We seem to have come out of the summer holiday, and people were spending. Now, I get anecdotal reports that the spending is slowing. People are running out of money, the disposable income is not readily there, and at the same time, we’ve achieved unbelievable price increases in dairy proteins overall, and particular whey proteins. Does that at some moment come to a head? Ted Jacoby III: I’ll go ahead and stick my neck out a little bit on this one. So, one of the reasons that I think proteins, and whey proteins in particular, have stayed strong even as our macroeconomy has weakened but not fallen apart, is the way I’d call it, is because the way that most of the population seems to be dealing with this inflationary environment that is causing their spending to be restricted is to cut back on their restaurant visits. They’re just spending less when they go out. And the majority of increasing whey protein demand that I’ve seen seems to be happening more on the retail side. Meaning, it’s happening in their stay-at-home consumption rather than their restaurant-going consumption, and that has helped keep that market strong. If we start to see retail demand weaken because the economy gets even weaker, then I think we’ll start to see whey protein demand weaken with it. Jacob Menge: The implication is actually equally as interesting that if the economy gets better, you would argue that also impacts whey protein demand. You don’t go to a restaurant and order a protein shake. Ted Jacoby III: So, the possibility exists that if the economy strengthens, we’ll also see a weakening in dairy protein demand because the meat protein demand would go up, but dairy protein demand could drop. Assuming [00:24:00] that the increase is a per capita increase rather than a total increase. Mike Brown: I think the elasticity for the proteins is very low. Consumer demand’s gonna remain relatively consistent. It’s purchased for a different reason. Again, back from the conference I just came from, there was a marketing person who said in GLP households, calorie count of purchases are down 30%, cost is down only 1%. So, people are definitely moving up the quality of food that they’re buying, and proteins play a role. I think rather than say the prices are going up or going down, I think where I see is that the spread between MPC and WPC is just gonna lessen, to some degree, as uses develop to replace when possible. We’re at such high levels, what’s down? We go down to $9 on WPC 80. two years ago that was unheard of ever. So, part of this, I think, is a function of a changing consumer shift. Will that stay? It’s hard to say. If people are feeling better about how they feel and how they live, I would say that demand’s gonna remain strong. What I found interesting is that lactose still sells. It seems like the whole dry complex is relatively healthy. As we talk in our industry, we’ve always talked for years about three, four spreads, and I think the thing we’re seeing is the demand for the protein side on Class IV milk, dry powder milk, is gonna keep those prices tight and often inverse compared to what history has shown us, just because that demand for protein is so strong. Ted Jacoby III: One of the things that history has shown us is that people tend to take major market trends, like in this case protein consumption, and underestimate the significant macro shifts in those patterns. It’s been strong, it’s gonna stay strong. How could we be wrong? Is there anything out there that nobody’s paying attention to that we think could cause a fundamental shift in protein demand relative to what we’re seeing right now? Josh White: If we find out GLP-1s are dangerous, things will change fast. And I’m not crediting GLP-1s to this entire movement. I think that too many people actually give all of the credit to the protein movement, to the American adoption of the GLP-1 drugs. I actually think this is a broad movement that was overwhelming dairy’s ability to provide enough of the high-quality protein that the market demanded, particularly when it was on the cheaper end of its historical price curve several years ago. Now, we’re in a spot where the market is moving in this direction, the health and wellness trend is a global trend, the science is behind dairy as a highly functional and digestible protein And then you have this catalyst of many Americans watching their diet better than ever before and wanting to enhance their total digestible protein intake and create an efficient use of the calories that they’re bringing in. It’s the perfect storm. That being said, it’s the perfect storm that may have driven prices slightly above where we would’ve seen them without the intervention or addition of the GLP-1 user community. If that were to shift, it could take the entire final tier out of this price, and I don’t even wanna try to [00:27:00] define what that tier looks like at the moment. Mike Brown: I think the bigger threat is through food science, no matter what it might be, is alternative proteins to milk. I think we can’t underestimate what may happen with plant proteins, for example, with time, with genetics. It gets down to a cost, and we all know the functionality can be very different, and to Josh’s point, nutrition can be very different. Does the price spread get wide enough? For example, if you go into the protein bars in your local Costco, the ones that are the lowest cost are the pea protein. They’re plant protein-based bars. The whey and milk protein are higher. I don’t think we wanna assume that it’s dairy’s business forever, ’cause there’ll be people looking at ways to get the taste, flavor, and to some degree the digestibility with alternative sources. Just because if there’s a savings in the long run, they’ll try to do it. So far, I think the success has been kinda limited, but I wouldn’t wanna count it out not happening. There’s enough dollars at stake to make it worthwhile to look into that. Ted Jacoby III: You know what, Mike? I’ll piggyback on what you’re saying, and I would say this. If we step back five years and remember the time when all we were talking about was cellular agriculture and how you could create all this protein in a vat, and then that kinda just died off, and I think it died off because people found that it was more expensive than they thought to run that process. However, innovative technology such as cellular protein tends to have, come in waves, where the first wave often will fail, but then people in the background will continue to work on ways to improve the process, make the process more efficient. And if another innovation comes along that makes it less expensive, all of a sudden you can see a big rise in, let’s say, whey protein-like proteins being created in a vat, a la cellular agriculture. Mike Brown: It hasn’t popped like we all thought it was going to, or at least a lot of the industry did. I’m a former insulin user. I know what it costs to make insulin. It’s the same process. It’s kinda hard to make a digestible protein with that process and make it competitive cost-wise. For example, take lactoferrin. That’s a different story. And- Mm-hmm … … as they get more efficient, will we move down the chain to more common ingredients or even supplements, too. I’ve learned, with food science, just never say never, ’cause you’ll be surprised. Someone’ll come up with something that can make a difference. Meanwhile I think the demand for high-quality protein isn’t going away. I think we need to make sure that dairy remains the key source of that, ’cause right now it certainly is. The high-protein products that are the most popular are milk protein based or whey protein based. Ted Jacoby III: Cool. Thanks, Mike. All right, guys, before we wrap up, what conferences are we going to in the next couple of months? Let’s tell our listeners where they might be able to find us. Diego, how about you? Diego Carvallo: So, we’ll have a stand at the next show in Mexico City at the end of September. It’s called Banamex Mexico City Show. Would love to see you guys there. Ted Jacoby III: Is that the one everybody refers to as FOOD TECH®? Diego Carvallo: Yes, exactly. Ted Jacoby III: Perfect. Yeah. Awesome. How about you, Josh? Josh White: The International Whey Conference in Chicago is in September, and we’ll have some people at that along with the ADPI board of directors meeting. And then shortly after as we get into October, SupplySide Global [00:30:00] is in Las Vegas, and we will be exhibiting in the ADPI section. Ted Jacoby III: Excellent. Awesome. And I will probably be joining Diego at FOOD TECH®, and then Joe and I will be heading over to Food Ingredients Europe in November. So look forward to seeing everybody there. Hey, thanks everybody for tuning in. I hope this was a educational market discussion for everybody, and look forward to seeing you guys soon. End commercial. Mike Brown: For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. Jacoby & Co. because I get to help people make their businesses more successful.

August 5, 202642 min

Can the U.S. Keep Its Dairy Export Advantage?

We’re excited to have Will Loux , senior vice president of global economic affairs for the U.S. Dairy Export Council , join us to share his presentation of the future of U.S. dairy exports. For years, the U.S. dairy export portfolio has leaned heavily on nonfat dry milk, skim milk powder, lactose and lower-protein whey products. But our exports are changing. In the latest episode of The Milk Check , host Ted Jacoby sits down with Will Loux to break down the changing U.S. export picture. In this episode, we cover: Why U.S. dairy exports are moving toward cheese, fats and higher-value proteins How domestic protein demand is pulling skim solids away from dryers Why more cheese may be produced partly to create additional whey protein How exports are absorbing a larger share of new U.S. cheese production Where Latin America offers room for additional cheese growth What it will take for U.S. butter exports to become more consistent and profitable The U.S. has the milk. It has new processing capacity. And it is capturing a growing share of international cheese demand. But growth creates new challenges. Are you ready to meet them? Listen to The Milk Check episode 104: Can the U.S. Keep Its Dairy Export Advantage? Also available on: Amazon Music , Apple Podcasts , Spotify , and YouTube . Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check. Will Loux: What I’ve heard from folks in Europe and elsewhere is how do they manage the U.S. tsunami of exports that’s coming? And I think that, at the Export Council, it makes me excited, but it does mean we need to keep our strategies current. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Today, we are very excited to have Will Loux, Senior Vice President of Global Economic Affairs for the U.S. Dairy Export Council joining us. A few weeks ago I saw a presentation that Will gave that talked about where the U.S. dairy industry is going, especially from an international perspective. It was an absolutely fantastic presentation, and I couldn’t help but think that just this presentation alone would be an absolutely fantastic topic for our podcast. I have a bunch of our traders joining us, many of our usual suspects, including: Ted Jacoby III: Diego Carvallo, Joe Maixner, Miguel Aragon, Mike Brown, all from our trading team. Guys, thanks for joining us. Will, thank you so much for joining us. It’s great to see you again. Will Loux: Good to see you, Ted. Thanks for having me on. Ted Jacoby III: Excited to have all of our listeners listen to this. Will, the floor is yours. Will Loux: Perfect. Well, thank you for having me, Ted, and glad to have so many people on here and another audience for this presentation. I’ve got some slides. For those of you like me who will listen to this podcast usually while driving, feel free to go check it out on YouTube. I am also gonna do my best to reference what is in those slides as best I can remember to do so. But what is the future of U.S. dairy exports? What we’ve seen, really over the last twenty-five years, has been this tremendous, consistent growth, in aggregate U.S. dairy exports. We just got May data, and what we saw was on an annualized basis over the last twelve months, the U.S. actually set a new record again. So our exports have never been higher than they are today. But that said, our exports look fundamentally different than what they did 20 years ago. Before, when we were getting started with exports, 75, 80% of our exports were really driven by nonfat dry milk, and low-protein whey products, and lactose. That’s been the vast majority of our portfolio for much of this time, and we’ve had a few different eras where we’ve seen U.S. cheese exports picked up, especially around 2014 when the world was short of milk and we saw U.S. cheese and butter go overseas. But then we saw that stagnate for a few years. Now, what we’ve seen since COVID has been this tremendous growth of these more value-add products, these specialty products. I believe the U.S. is moving towards a portfolio in the export market that looks a lot like cheese, fats, and proteins. And that’s gonna be the core of our exports, I think, going forward because the U.S. dairy industry is really kind of, I consider it an evolution rather than, like, a true revolution. But this is one of those facets that I think is really interesting to see is the U.S. has consistently been growing its exports, unlike a [00:03:00] lot of other supply origins. But this is one that I think as we go forward I’m really excited about. But it’s gonna change how we need to think about exports over the next few years. Ted Jacoby III: Will, it sounds like what you’re saying is not only are we seeing the total volume of exports go up, but the dollar per pound value is even going up faster because we’re switching away from that low-cost carb portfolio to a much higher-value protein, fat, et cetera portfolio. Fair to say? Will Loux: I think that’s exactly right. I think there are implications for that, too. That if the U.S. is moving out of perhaps exporting as much skim milk powder or sweet whey because we’re instead making UF milk or cottage cheese or yogurt or high-protein whey, well, there’s still demand overseas for that sweet whey and for that skim milk powder. But now, it’s actually getting supplied by a few other countries, too. So, we do have to keep all of these things in mind. But to me, I think we’re moving up the value chain as the U.S., and what I’ve heard from folks in Europe and elsewhere is how do they manage the U.S. tsunami of exports that’s coming? And I think that, at the Export Council, it makes me excited, but it does mean we need to keep our strategies current with where we’re gonna go in the future. One of the things that I’ve noticed here over the last really few months but even going back to last year has been a real shift in how the U.S. dairy market is balancing itself. I would argue that for the last really 20 years, to be frank, but at least for the last 15 years, the U.S. dairy market has largely been balanced to domestic fat demand. Yes, we did see, certainly, exports of cheese grow over this time, so I don’t want to discount that as a butterfat-heavy product, but for the most part, what we’ve seen has been the U.S. has consistently balanced with where domestic demand for butterfat has grown, and then we’ve exported the skim solids largely in the form of nonfat dry milk and sweet whey overseas. What we’ve seen here over the last several years has been the U.S. switching from a traditionally balancing to domestic milkfat demand, where we’ve seen butter consumption grow, whole milk consumption grow. U.S. milk production, U.S. dairy production grew with that. And then, we exported the additional skim solids in the form of nonfat dry milk, sweet whey, high protein whey, lactose. Those products were the ones that we were really exporting. Now, what I think is happening is the U.S. is no longer really balancing to fat anymore. We’re in this precarious balance right now. We’re not quite balanced to protein yet, and we’re not quite balanced to the beef market yet because we still have high prices for protein. We don’t have enough of it to go around. We don’t have enough beef for the beef market to go around, but we also have more milk fat than the domestic market can consume. And so we’ve seen these exports really rise. So, I think what we’re seeing right now is the U.S. being pulled in different directions, and the U.S. exports as we go forward here over the next few years is in some ways at a crossroad as to which of these routes do we go. Do we swing back to balancing to milk fat, which would mean we’re probably short of protein, or do we start balancing more to protein, which means we’re gonna need to find homes for a heck of a lot more cheese and butter in the next few years. [00:06:00] Because to me, at least, if you look at the beef market, from a dairy farmer’s perspective, you are still seeing that incentive to add additional cows just based on the returns on the beef side of things. And because of that incentive to hold the dairy cows longer to get the additional black calf, also with that breeding the best of the best in the young stock, we are just seeing the largest milking herd since the 1990s and the lowest replacement herd since the 1970s. And everything we’re seeing on the beef cattle side of things would suggest this isn’t slowing down anytime soon. But from the U.S. perspective, I think what this means is we’re gonna continue to see more milking cows around, and those cows are getting more productive than ever before. And even as we’re seeing this surge in milk production, I think on a component basis, last year in in 2025 we were up 3.8%. This year we’re up not quite at 3%, but still pretty darn close. Even as we see this growth of milk, these additional black calves coming on the market, we actually still don’t see enough protein hitting the dairy markets right now. And so, what we’re seeing is even as we see this huge surge in cottage cheese production and yogurt production, my personal opinion is yogurt doesn’t get enough credit for this protein rally. It’s like 10X the volume of cottage cheese, but what we’re seeing right now is this pull of protein. I think this pull of protein is predominantly domestic. We’re seeing UF beverages, we’re seeing yogurts, we’re seeing cottage cheese, we’re seeing everything that whey protein can go into from cereals to snacks to beverages. All of that protein pull is basically sucking protein and skim solids that had been going to the export market back into the U.S. By virtue of that, we’re also seeing U.S. cheese production need to increase, not so much for the cheese demand that we’re seeing here in the United States, but rather for the whey demand that we’re seeing here as well. The cheese has really become that co-product of the whey stream. I think even conversations that I’ve had with U.S. manufacturers of, “How can I get more whey protein without building a new cheese plant” is part of the consideration. One of the things that we’ve looked at over this time has really been where is this protein in the United States going? Because we’ve seen U.S. milk production rise, U.S. milk protein production rise in the sense of protein out of the cow, but we still have less nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder than we had a year ago. What I’ve noticed over this time has been certainly the cheese vat continues to get first dibs on most of that protein. Even in the May data that we got out of USDA, you saw cheese production was up, even when nonfat dry milk was sitting at sky-high levels north of $2.00. What we’re really seeing right now is we’re pulling milk out of the dryers and either putting it into the cheese vat or putting it into these other high-protein products and the like. What that is doing is that’s shifting our export mix. So far this year, our exports of skim milk powder, amazingly, are flat somehow. But if [00:09:00] you look at our May exports of nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder, they were down 20%, and I think that’s reflective of that, and we were down last year. What we’re seeing has been the U.S. is moving out of some of these carb-heavy, as you talked about, Ted, to these more higher value uses for these products. And even nonfat dry milk production picked up in May, but it’s not that we pulled milk out of the yogurts or out of the cottage cheese or out of the natural cheese itself, it’s that we stopped making skim milk powder and instead made nonfat dry milk. This is really where we’re seeing this pull of protein, either in the form of beef necessitating more cows or necessitating more capacity to make whey proteins, milk proteins, UF products, or just high-protein dairy products. All of that pulled together is sending a, “Let’s go make more milk.” Contrasting that, you have cheese and fats, which at this point right now, and historically this isn’t too unusual, but it is something different than we’ve really seen over the last few years, has been this export push of cheese and dairy fats in the form of predominantly butter, AMF, and to a lesser extent whole milk powder. What we’re seeing here has really been this shift where right now I think we’re growing our milk production as fast as the international market can absorb our cheese and fats. Because if you look here, since COVID, what we’ve seen is about 36%, over a third of the new cheese that’s been manufactured in the United States, has gone to export. If you think about that historically, about 5% of the new cheese in the previous decade went to exports. And now we’re at 35%. And if you look at the last two years, it’s north of 65% has gone to exports. As we’re building these new cheese plants, in part for the whey, there is that eye towards, “Okay, where are we going with this cheese?” And it’s gotta be overseas. Within that, too, the United States is actually the one capturing what is a growing global market. It’s not just that the U.S. is flooding the market with less expensive cheese, it’s that global cheese demand is growing, and the U.S. is the one capturing that. Because if you look, since COVID, the U.S. has captured about 60% of that new cheese demand that’s happening overseas, and that’s really been coming from the United States. Europe’s grown their cheese exports too, so has New Zealand. Australia’s basically flat, but the rest of the world evens up. The difference here is that the United States is really the one capturing this demand growth because we have the milk, we have the cheese, and that’s really where I think the U.S. has managed to expand its footprint, be a more consistent exporter, and really break into new markets that it hasn’t before. But we’ve been in cheese for a while. Granted, it’s at a different scale today than what it has been. We were up 20% last year in cheese exports. This year we’re up about 25% so far this year. We continue to surge in our cheese exports. The difference that is new this time around is, fundamentally, that we’re seeing this expansion come not [00:12:00] just in cheese as our primary vehicle to export the fat and casein, but also in fat-heavy products, predominantly butter, but also AMF and whole milk powder, too. That you’re seeing the United States now, for every, load of high-protein beverages, you’re gonna have a load of cream that you’re gonna need to deal with, or multiple loads of cream that you’re gonna have to deal with, and that’s now going overseas. Domestic demand for butter is still going strong. Domestic demand for whole milk continues to grow. The difference is we’ve just grown production faster than that domestic demand. And so, you pull this all together, and I really think we’re seeing an evolution in our portfolio for exports. Cheese by value is now our biggest export product, and you’ve seen fats and proteins continue to grow within that portfolio, as well, from a value perspective. While we’ve seen nonfat dry milk, low protein whey, lactose, those have really been flat to declining over this timeframe. And so, if you look at that incremental growth that we’ve seen in our U.S. dairy exports since COVID, again, what we’ve seen is our two biggest stars during this period have been cheese and fats, and I think protein in the long run is still really optimistic to me. But you pull this all together, the U.S. is still gonna be a major player in skim milk powder, sweet whey, whey permeate, lactose. But if you look at where our exports are gonna grow in the future, those are really some of the key products. What do you all think about this as kind of a argument here for where our U.S. dairy exports are going? Joe Maixner: That’s been exactly what we’ve been discussing for the past six plus months, that our supply is going to continue to outpace the domestic demand. So 100% agree with everything you said in this, Will. I think that butter will continue to become a major player in the export market. Miguel Aragón: In my case, being out there in the trenches, I see this day in, day out. The penetration of U.S. cheese and butter, especially right now. We know the soaring ingredients, but cheese and butter especially, every day you could see it more and more in the marketplace. Something really interesting that you said at the beginning: If we’re gonna produce more cheese, we’re gonna have to find a place for it. We know the numbers, we see the numbers. It’s an amazing story. But right now, as we speak, that is replicating in Central America. You guys see it at the U.S. DEC. And I just came back from Colombia. The opportunity is there for us, as long as we keep doing what we’re doing now and looking at the market, adapting to the market, adapting to what the market is asking us for, and also replacing some of the product that is coming from Europe and New Zealand. But I agree with what you’re saying here 100%. Ted Jacoby III: Will, I’m gonna turn the question around on you a little bit. Is the global demand for butterfat there for us to continue to increase how much butter we’re exporting? And is the global demand for cheese there? Will that global demand keep increasing for those two products? Will Loux: From my perspective, it’s yes. What I find interesting over the last couple years has been that [00:15:00] cheese demand held up exceptionally well even during high inflation periods. Where we saw other dairy products actually feel a lot of the pressure internationally, cheese demand kept growing pretty much right on track. What we’ve seen here on the cheese side over the last couple of years internationally has been this acceleration in cheese demand, and I think some of that has to do with, as Miguel was saying, tremendous growth from our partners in Latin America. That’s been a key engine for U.S. dairy exports here over the last couple of years and, frankly, since the Export Council was founded about 30 years ago. But when we look at the opportunities abroad, I think that we still have a lot of untapped potential on the cheese side. I remain pretty optimistic about that. The other thing I’ll say, too, here is: I don’t think European milk production’s gonna keep growing at 3% a year. I don’t think you’re seeing the same investment in new cheese capacity. I think we’re seeing investment in Europe and New Zealand in new protein capacity, and that’s maybe another conversation. But I think the U.S., one, has the opportunity to capture what is a growing global market on the cheese side, and also capture market share on the cheese side. The butter standpoint has been interesting. Butter has typically been, internationally, one of the more price-elastic products. It’s one that we’ve seen when butter prices really skyrocketed, some of that may be allocation, but when butter prices were high, we did see international demand struggle. Conversely, when butter prices were low, like they are today in many ways, we’ve seen butter demand grow. And butter demand internationally is growing, not just out of the U.S., but globally. I think the question I have here with butter is less about can the U.S. compete in this market, but more, what is our price point relative to Europe and New Zealand. Because I think if you look at our butter exports, for much of last year we were probably a buck a pound below Europe. A lot of that butter was going into Europe, where coincidentally the tariff into Europe is about a buck a pound. I think my question is more crucially than can the U.S. capture growing demand for butter, it’s where do we grow our butter exports. And I, personally, think the U.S. should never be exporting really butter to Europe unless we get additional market access. I think the U.S. should be exporting butter to its higher value markets and partners, places like Mexico, like Central America, North Asia and Korea, Australia, the Middle East, assuming we can keep the strait open for a little while. But I still remain pretty optimistic that the U.S. can keep growing in those products. Some of it will be market share, and some of it will be new demand, particularly on the cheese side. Ted Jacoby III: Will, looking at this graph where it’s talking about, U.S. dairy exports by destination, there’s a big increase into Latin America since 2021. Will Loux: Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Is that fair to say most of that is cheese? Will Loux: It’s fair to say most of it is cheese. We have seen increases also in nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder exports to Latin America over this timeframe, too, but the big driver, I think especially post-COVID in Latin America, was, [00:18:00] one, that region was the first major region, I should say, where tourism increased to levels higher than what it was before COVID, and we continue to see pretty good economic performance in the region. The other thing I don’t wanna discount here, too, has also been the full implementation of CAFTA-DR, our trade agreement with many of the Central American countries came into full effect, and you’ve seen this real surge in demand from the region and collaboration with our local partners there, that we’ve really seen this growth in Central American demand and Caribbean demand. Most of that is cheese. More recently, there are also butter and AMF and so going there too, but cheese has been the engine on the Latin American side most recently. Mike Brown: Will, I’ve got a question. Anything in particular we in the dairy industry, and of course you at U.S. DEC, are watching as far as improving opportunities, but also possible disadvantages we may gain through trade. Will Loux: Yeah. Great question, Mike. I have a mix of optimism, and then probably a couple notes of caution on this. So from my optimistic take, a lot of these new agreements on reciprocal trade that we’ve signed with key partners around the world, some of these are incredibly exciting because these are markets we’ve wanted to have agreements with for a long time. In particular, Indonesia makes me very excited. I think if we are able to see that actually be implemented here soon, I would be even more excited. I think there’s still a question on when that gets fully implemented. Taiwan is another one. We are getting access into markets that we never had access to before. We’ll see when those are fully implemented but again, I am still pretty optimistic on where those have opportunities for the U.S. to build upon and get on an equal footing with our competitors in Oceania and in Europe. However, our competitors are not staying static. We see a new agreement here between the European Union and Mexico. We have an agreement between the European Union and Mercosur that gets them additional access, particularly in proteins. I think the U.S. cannot take its customers for granted. Especially as we look at places like Mexico, that’s one where competition is not going to go away. And when we’ve seen nonfat dry milk sit 75 cents plus above Europe, you’re gonna see customers start calling Europe and New Zealand and looking for alternative sources. Or when we have high-protein whey products that are in such demand domestically, are we making sure we’re contacting our customers abroad? Because what we’re seeing now is Europe is heavily investing in additional whey protein capacity. Even as the U.S. is the largest exporter of high-protein whey in the world, I think there are other origins that are coming for that. And so, when I look optimistically, it’s like, “Great, we get more market access.” But to some of the key questions that I have around like is the U.S. ready for the future of dairy exports, one of them is gonna be: How do we actually meet this international demand on the protein side, and are we gonna have the market access that we need to be able [00:21:00] to capture sales? As I look at the world market today, I have a ton of optimism for where the U.S. can really be the supplier of choice, but it’s not gonna be a straight line from here to there, even on the fats or even on the cheese. I think the last couple years, milk production’s been up so much, it’s allowed us to capture a lot of demand, but even those I think will bounce around. Mike, I don’t know if that answered your question, but that was where my head’s at these days. Ted Jacoby III: Everybody, we will be right back after these messages. Diego Carvallo: I’m Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co.. T.C. Jacoby & Co. specializes in international dairy markets. For new customers that haven’t done business with Jacoby, I would tell them that we can provide them with many of the powders, dairy products that they consume, not only with the physical product, but we can also help them mitigate their risk. We know dairy. We know the main players. We know the main providers for the whole value chain. We are one of the strongest players in the U.S. market because we have contact all the way from the farmer moving the liquid milk all the way to the end users that buy the end products. I am Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co., and we bring dairy to the world. Will Loux: Ted, maybe what do you think if we go through a couple of these questions and have a little debate? Ted Jacoby III: All right. We’ll ask our team. Number one, does the U.S. have the necessary market access and global reach to capture sales opportunities in a multipolar world? Will Loux: And maybe I’ll clarify what I mean by multi-polar world. Ted Jacoby III: Great idea. Will Loux: Cause what I mean by that is if you look at global dairy trade leading up to COVID especially, from 2010 to 2020, China was the engine of that global dairy import demand growth. They accounted for 40% of that growth. These days, I’m not particularly optimistic China’s gonna be the engine. I think China will be an important import market, for sure. And I think they’re still gonna need fats, they’re still gonna need proteins, but they’re growing their own domestic supply, particularly of commodities. So, what I think the future looks like from a demand perspective is collective growth. Latin America, Southeast Asia, Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa even, I think there will be a lot of countries growing that collectively equal what China was doing before. But we’re gonna have to play in a lot of markets. So, the question to you guys then is: Do we have the reach and access to be able to compete in a lot of different places, or what does that look like for the U.S.? Because China is not gonna be the engine of global dairy demand here over the next decade, we’re gonna have to compete in a lot of different markets. In the previous decade leading up to COVID, you saw a lot of the New Zealand milk production, an increasing percentage was going to China, which opened up opportunities for us in Southeast Asia and the Middle East and others. As we look at this next era of dairy exports, do we have the market access? Do we have the global reach and infrastructure to be able to capture sales in a lot of different markets [00:24:00] around the world? Diego Carvallo: That’s a good question. If we start with the premise that the U.S. is not gonna desperately need to export nonfat, I would say that it’s not gonna be that difficult to find new markets. The U.S. is not gonna have to fight to move additional volumes like they need to do for products like butter. Where do we take the skim milk powder that we’re currently making if China is not a huge buyer anymore? There’s plenty of demand still to be covered in other regions of Southeast Asia in other regions in Latin America, where we should have a good footprint and where we should have some advantages when it comes to freight. I would say the main markets where we have to gain market share are gonna be definitely Central America, the Caribbean and Latin America because of all of the advantages when it comes to freight and the relationship and other factors. The market where we’re gonna fight with the rest of the origins is gonna be Southeast Asia, we may need to go there and fight with price, with aggressive pricing, and we may need to compete even with China, ’cause we’re hearing that even China has been exporting product to that region in the past year. There’s gonna be some markets where we are positioned to gain market share and others where we’re gonna have to compete in price. Ted Jacoby III: Miguel, what do you think? With cheese and butter, do we have the necessary market access and global reach? Miguel Aragón: We do have the necessary market access. Our products are welcome where we are taking them. Our issue is more like, the cheeses that we produce at scale, cheddar and color cheddar, are not necessarily the cheeses that our markets are asking for. We need Gouda, we need Monterey Jack, we need Sadero, we need Manchego. We need the help of our partners, our plant partners, to adapt and to see the opportunity of the cheeses that those markets ask for. And I’m in particular about Latin America. But then again, that’s a big market. U.S. cheeses are well-received. We do have places to go with it. We just have to get better at exporting. U.S. DEC does a really good job at helping us get into those markets, vet the customers and teach about the products. We are doing the right things. We just need to do it a little bit better. We do have places to go with that extra cheese. Ted Jacoby III: Miguel, do you think there’s a lot of underserved regions in Central and South America? In other words, are there a lot of customers who the only reason they’re not buying and importing more U.S. cheese is because they don’t know who to buy it from, they don’t have the contacts? Miguel Aragón: I do. In the last trips that I made, especially to the northern part of South America, colombia, Peru, Ecuador, there is demand. It just reminds me of Mexico 15, 20 years ago. They don’t know who to buy it from. They don’t know that we make it. They don’t know that we have the variety that we have. It’s an education. We have to work, harder at marketing our products down there. But there is a place. There is definitely a place. There is a market. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks, Miguel. All right, Joe, I got a question for you. Can the U.S. export butterfat products consistently and in a [00:27:00] profitable manner? Joe Maixner: I think we’ve started showing that we can export consistently. Numbers have been pretty consistent and have been growing throughout the year. A profitable portion probably remains to be seen. We’ll always have to be aggressive as we’re entering into new markets ‘ cause we’re gonna have to find a way to penetrate into markets that have been historically dominated by Europe or Oceania with a product that does not look like Europe or Oceania’s product. The easiest way to do that, obviously, is to, for lack of a better term, buy our way into the market to people to try the product. But once our product is in there and they realize it’s a consistent quality butter, I think that we certainly have the opportunity to be profitable long-term. Realistically, exporting butterfat consistently makes everybody more profitable in the U.S. because it pushes fat offshore, which helps our butter price, ultimately, domestically. Will Loux: When I look at exporting butterfat profitably, for us, especially at the Export Council, it’s been one of those things that the U.S. for the longest time hasn’t had butter basically to export. When we’ve gotten long, we’ve found places to clear it. I think what’s changed this time around has been that it seems like with the pull of protein, that we’re gonna have at least some butter available long-term. The question that I still have is where are the best places for us to invest? And even as an Export Council, where are the best places for us to invest our resources into trying to make sure that customers even know that the U.S. has butter available to export, while also trying to find ways of helping U.S. exporters navigate different tariffs than they’ve traditionally had to export, making sure the product specs meet it, and then also trying to get new market access in places that, for a while we’ve seen a lot of trade agreements that thankfully got the U.S. access in cheese and in milk powders, and sometimes butter was in there, sometimes it wasn’t. And so how do we get additional access into that? I look at the U.S.-Japan phase one, that we got additional cheese access, I think we could use some additional butter access into Japan. I’m pretty optimistic on this one. I don’t know if we’re there yet, but I think it’s gonna be isolating which markets are going to be the most profitable for us. I’m probably less optimistic that we’re gonna be consistent in exporting butter here in the next couple of years. But long-term, I think it’s undeniable that the U.S. is gonna have to go in this direction eventually. Ted Jacoby III: Why are you less optimistic in the short-term? Will Loux: I’m a little optimistic in the short-term because we have been exporting effectively double the butter exports we have been. We’ve seen that gap between the U.S. and international markets close quite a bit. Inventories are pretty low. The milk fat test, until May, which surprised me a little bit, had been slowing down as farmers adjusted rations. If we get to the point where butter is $1.40, $1.50, I’m not sure it always makes sense for the farmers to pay for the incremental increase in feed inputs to boost the butterfat test to the [00:30:00] extent that would boost our exports. We may find ourselves tighter in butter in the fourth quarter because we’ve exported our way back to balance. And to me, it looks like where cheese was 15 years ago: That we are on the path towards being a consistent exporter, but we’re often still going to prioritize our domestic market. From the U.S. perspective, I think our butter looks like cheese did 15 years ago, where we’re often export competitive, but not always. Joe Maixner: Will, basically, you have summed up exactly what I’ve been saying for a while, where the butter export opportunity will be cyclical because we will get super competitive, which will drive our domestic price up, which will take us out of the market, and then in turn, cause a surplus of domestic butter to show up in the market, which will then collapse the price and make us super competitive again in the export market. We’re still early enough in the phase that we’re trying to figure out those cycles. I do think it’s cyclical. Overall, though, I do think we will be a consistent exporter. There’ll be a base, and it will ebb and flow, but I do think we will be a consistent exporter moving forward because as we’ve gained market share, we are getting loyal end-use customers in export markets that will consistently pay for our product. Will Loux: I 100% agree with that. I think it’s gonna be, where do we keep our consistent customers, and where are the opportunistic sales that maybe ebb and flow? That’s gonna be a multi-year process as that all shakes out as to where are our stickiest markets within all this? Mike Brown: You want those consistent customers. Jacoby, one of our jobs is helping people with those opportunities. So, they’re both important, but you still need that core base demand and respect for the product. And so, I have a question for you on this, Will. Let’s take butter. Butter’s a great example because the world is unsalted 82, we’re salted 80. I think Joe would attest: We’re seeing suppliers trying to be more flexible in making the product that meets that demand, yet on the other hand, if you’re gonna store a commodity, you gotta make the commodity that is the market product. What are you seeing as far as our adaptability to be that flexible supplier in the world market? What else do we need to do that maybe we aren’t currently doing? Will Loux: There certainly has been a lot of progress made. From my perspective, you have a few different things. One is, of course, the salted and the fat content in the U.S. is different. It’s rare that we’re gonna be exporting from our inventories of 80 salted unless it’s just purely a price play. But what I think about when I think long-term export opportunities is really targeting the key channels that the U.S. is likely to win in first. And some of that’s food manufacturing. I think that’s where the U.S. can be really good, especially making bulk butter for export. I think it’s the first channel. But then it’s also making sure our formats meet the expectations of the customers. Because food manufacturing, I think, will only get us so far. The next phase where the U.S. can really excel in a couple markets is in the foodservice space and in the bakery space, in particular. We have next to no [00:33:00] capacity in the U.S. to make butter sheets, basically the stuff that you would use for croissants or bakery applications. Those are things we know we’ve heard from customers on how we can make products that are specifically geared towards that. In the long run, those are some of the issues. Some of it’s also from an Export Council perspective, educating customers on why U.S. butter is a different color, helping them understand how to utilize it. And even if they choose to use 80%, how to adjust their formulations to that to help understand, “Hey, this is a simple difference of 2% fat difference.” We can work in that space here, too. Long term, I think the U.S. needs to be sure, and this is something we’ve seen in all the other export products that we’ve seen over the years, is not solely trying to sell what we make here in the U.S. and say, “Hey, you should try this instead.” But instead figuring out what our customers are asking for and really making that product. And a lot of that goes down to also the formats and trying to move beyond just bulk butter for further processing into really targeted markets with those specific products. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, do you think the butter industry will invest in those things to increase our capabilities to deliver what the customer wants? Joe Maixner: I think eventually they may have to if our fat components continue the direction that they’re going. Some of the forward thinkers will be the first to adapt, and they’ll be the beneficiaries of investing in some further processing type manufacturing to be able to account for that. Cause at the end of the day, the profit’s in the value add. It’s not in selling bulk. If there’s production capacity, and there’s space to do the addition, and somebody has the foresight to take the chance on it, I think that the payoff is there. Because if you get into that food service type packaging or laminated butter sheets or you get into a product that nobody else is making, that makes you very sticky in that market. You own that market. Will Loux: Even as we’re talking about butter here, we’ve got to think of other, fat-heavy products that could actually play really well in the international market. I tend to think whether it’s, like a UHT cream product, I know there’s always interest in like a frozen cream product. That’s a hard thing for the U.S. to make in some ways. I think UHT creams, we continue to see grow even as we see UHT milk itself actually decline globally. But we’re seeing real interest in that food service sector of, “Hey, let’s get whipping creams that are really targeted towards some of these international markets.” As much as for the U.S. it’s geared around, “Okay, what’s the most storable form of fat?” I think that’s step one, to find a way to export it. But step two is really what are these value-add fat-containing products that we can actually be targeting and competing in as well. And then I think balancing to like an AMF or a whole milk powder, but then using our butter and creams for the value add opportunities. Ted Jacoby III: I agree. Joe Maixner: Let’s not forget cream cheese, either. Cream cheese internationally has been phenomenal. That has plenty of trajectory to keep going. Miguel Aragón: I [00:36:00] must agree 100% with what Joe was saying on cream cheese. We are seeing phenomenal requests for cream cheese throughout Latin America, now in Asia. As what you were saying about channels, Will, we are now working with retailers in Central America with butter. Right now, it’s food service packaging going into retailers, but I think that’s a very interesting thing happening because once those brands of U.S. manufacturers start showing up in the retailers, I think we’re gonna have a better pool of U.S. butter. Ted Jacoby III: I agree, Miguel. Will, I think we should move on to the next couple of questions. – I’m gonna read them both out because I think they’re very related. The first question is, can the U.S. grow cheese exports fast enough to keep up with whey protein demand. And then the second question is, will the U.S. have the protein to supply both the rising domestic and international consumption? I’ll answer the Second question first, which is, my dad, one of the things he drove into us as traders was, at the end of the day, everything’s a matter of price. Which means supply and demand will be regulated by what the price of protein is in the global market. I think it’s fair to say Europe has a much greater ability to add whey protein processing than the U.S. does because a smaller percentage of the whey offtake from cheese plants in Europe is currently being processed into whey protein. So, we will see some pushback there. But in the end of the day, that’s simply gonna self-regulate over what that global price is. My prediction is, can the U.S. grow cheese exports fast enough to keep up with that whey protein demand? I think we are reaching a point where the U.S. is consistently priced where the world market is priced for cheese, and I think that is going to change the way new cheese plants get built because we have had pushback for for 40 years. It’s exactly what Miguel has been talking about, is you don’t make the cheese that we want. Well, if we’re consistently now priced properly into the international market, my challenge for the cheese industry is someone needs to build a plant that supplies the international market with what they want, because we’ve arrived at the point where we’re gonna be consistently competitive now, and that risk becomes worth it. Miguel, do you agree? Miguel Aragón: Totally. I couldn’t have said it better. The market is there; it’s waiting for us to take more of it, but we need the right product now. Ted Jacoby III: And I think that whey protein demand may actually drive someone to do it. What do you think? Will Loux: I agree with everything you’re saying. I think these are two inextricably linked pieces. Right now the signals are such: “Make more whey protein capacity” is clear. There’s also an element of “make more MPC capacity” or “make more capacity with the skim stream targeting proteins” as well. I think what’s holding back some of this capacity to date is probably much more the profitability on the cheese and on the fat side, and where those prices are at. From the dairy farmer perspective of if they’re investing is, the dairy farmer getting the price signals on the protein side? Because right now they’re getting the [00:39:00] price signals on the cheese side and on the fat side, and those are saying not as much to grow. These all need to be put into the spectrum of like, if we successfully grow our cheese exports and keep that international price relatively firm and grow demand abroad for cheese, and grow demand abroad for fats, it’s clear to me the protein demand seems pretty much insatiable here in the U.S. I think there’s a ton of untapped demand internationally, especially as GLP-1s start launching internationally. Like, there is a lot of international demand that I don’t think the U.S. should lose sight of, particularly with regards to whey proteins and milk proteins and all these other products. But it comes down to: can we grow our exports of cheese and butter, not just where we’re setting the global price for those products, but finding ways to make that stream profitable internationally, just as we’ve made the protein stream now incredibly profitable from a whey protein perspective. Folks are gonna come, particularly in Europe, as you said, I think they’re manufacturing over a million metric tons right now of sweet whey in Europe. Some of that’s gonna go to high-protein whey products. We’re gonna have more competition in that space. We’ll see what the price ends up being. All of these things are inextricably linked. And when I think about the mandate here at the Export Council, it’s like, how do we grow those cheese, those fat, and those protein exports, to keep that profitably moving and continue that investment? Because demand’s there for protein, and we’re seeing good demand internationally for cheese. We’re moving the fat overseas. But how do we do that in the most valuable way possible, I think is really what’s gonna be that next era of U.S. dairy exports. Joe Maixner: Will, I’m gonna ask you a question, ‘ cause I’m gonna push back a little bit. You said that farmers aren’t seeing the signals because of cheese and fat. You don’t think a $17 plus Class III and an $18 Class IV basically for the next year, plus your return on beef, plus your cheap inputs on feed is not enough to get the farmers to expand? Will Loux: Oh, I think they will continue to expand. When the nonfat dry milk price shot up, I think that was a reflection that we were short on protein. That we pulled so much out of the dryer, that was that reflection. But I think as Mike even said on one of your previous podcasts, that it was really shown in the PPD rather than necessarily in the protein price. I don’t mean necessarily they’re not getting the signal, it’s just some of it’s our pricing system is a convoluted signal. Ted Jacoby III: Will, you’re speaking to the choir. Mike Brown: I’m gonna have to quote you on that one. Ted Jacoby III: I’m gonna take this opportunity to say, Will, thank you so much for joining us today. This has been a fantastic discussion. I hope you come back soon and join us again, because we always love having you on our podcast. Will Loux: Always fun being with you guys. Thanks for having me on. Miguel Aragón: Bye, guys. [00:42:00] End Commercial: Mike Brown: For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. Jacoby & Co. because I get to help people make their businesses more successful.

July 30, 202636 min

The Perfect Storm for Milk Solids

Milk already feels tight across much of the U.S. That could be the setup for a perfect storm. Summer heat, warm nights, wildfire smoke and plant disruptions have pressured milk production and moved milk into unexpected places. Now, Class I bottlers are preparing for schools to reopen just as cheese plants, protein beverage manufacturers and other processors compete for the same milk solids. In this episode of The Milk Check , guest host Josh White and the Jacoby team break down what could make August, September and October especially interesting for dairy markets. We cover: How heat, smoke and limited nighttime cooling affected milk production Why school bottling demand could tighten the market further How the cybersecurity disruption temporarily increased condensed skim availability How conflict, Red Sea risk and higher freight costs are complicating dairy exports The dairy market is not moving in a straight line. But competition for milk solids is building, and the next few months could determine which product sectors get the milk they need. Listen to The Milk Check episode 103: The Perfect Storm for Milk Solids. Also available on: Amazon Music , Apple Podcasts , Spotify , and YouTube . Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: [Opening commercial] Josh White: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check. Jennifer S. Kuo: The Red Sea seems to be an issue now as well. Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. Josh, if the Houthis are getting involved, when you’re looking at Yemen that’s a direct effect on the Red Sea, which is the other half of that peninsula . And then it starts to limit the only access point that you can have into the Red Sea being through the Suez Canal. Josh White: ​In absence of our fearless leader, Ted we invite our audience to join us for one of our bi-weekly commercial meetings, where our group gets together and breaks down the market based on our individual disciplines. Today’s group is a fairly large one but we have members representing our fluid team, our ultrafiltered and cream team, cheese, butterfat, milk powder, and whey, which makes up our trading group. We’re in the dog days of summer right now, schools are out, families are traveling. There’s people out of the office not making decisions. That’s happening both in the U.S. and in Europe. Let’s touch on current market, climate, what we’re experiencing, and then what we’re paying attention to or looking out for in 30 days time. Let’s start with where we’re at on the milk side of things. Greg, both you and Jared, have experienced a little turbulence over the past week or so with some milk movements. We’re just coming out of a big heat stretch. We’re on the cusp of the South starting to refill its bottling pipelines. What are you feeling and seeing right now, Greg? Greg Scheer: We’ve had some plant closures that have pushed milk around the Mideast, the Northeast, and, around the country. We have had a week or two of that. The first heat wave, back several weeks ago, hit the cows harder than expected, and I’m wondering if maybe that’s the age of the herd is a little older that maybe it hit them a little more. Usually, you have a heat wave, the cows recover some. Normal summer, they get another heat wave, and then, it hits them a little harder the second time or third time. Seems like the first heat wave hit the cows a little harder. I think production’s down just a little bit more than we expected or earlier than maybe a normal summer. Other than plant problems that push milk around, it feels tight. We get to next month, schools start up again or are about to, and bottlers start putting milk into the bottle for schools, then it’s gonna get really tight and could be tight through September, October when maybe production comes back a little bit and the pipeline gets filled, and then it levels off demand a little bit. It feels tight other than plant closures. It’s gonna get really tight in a month. And, we’ll see where it goes. But production does seems like it was hit harder. I’m just wondering if maybe the age of the herd may have a little bit to do with it. Josh White: It was also pretty warm nights for the Midwest. It’s pretty well documented that above 70s: tough on cows; below 70s: allows them to recover nicely. I’m in Gurnee, Illinois, which is Grand Rapids [00:03:00] latitude on the Michigan side. For us to get nights above 70 is rare. And we just went through a pretty good stretch where we had a lot of them. The entire Mideast and the Midwest, we went through a solid four or five days of pretty bad smoke. At least our area was bad enough that just walking outside to get your mail, you could taste it. So I can’t imagine that helped anything. Greg Scheer: How much it hurt is hard to quantify maybe, but definitely didn’t help things. Josh White: Are we still really talking about two different countries, more or less? California, everything seems to be fine. They’re running great. They’re just pumping out milk, and then the rest of the country where it feels a little tighter? Greg Scheer: That’s the sense I get everybody I talk to. Yes. You’ve got California on an island there just filling up their plants, and everybody else in a tighter feel, all the way from the Upper Midwest, Mideast, Northeast. And then as you mentioned, I do think the pull to the Southeast will be starting fairly soon as their production slows, and by mid-August when they’re bottling for schools it’ll really get tight. Josh White: Europe is also talking about some of the same things. Heat sounds like it’s impacted France the most. Germany’s been pretty resilient. Everything I’ve read or heard is that in the recent weeks, people have taken their milk production forecast for the remainder of the year down in Europe, and by a noteworthy amount. To be clear, I think most expect European milk production for 2026 to be higher than it was in 2025, but it’s been notably higher through June. And looking ahead, for them to be taking those numbers down to modest growth means that they’re expecting year-over-year numbers to be down the second half of the year. So Europe seems to be slowing its rate of growth. Curious to what that means going into 2027. We seem to be making good milk, and we’ve got plenty of ability to process it, but the rest of the world feels like it’s starting to slow its growth rate, and maybe start to slow down as we look ahead to 2027. Class I plants looking to start filling up a bit in the next two to four weeks. Jared, what’s that mean for you and your team and your products? Jared Miklasz: Yeah, moving over to the condensed and fluid skim side, the market has become noticeably longer over the past couple weeks, and the obvious driver there was the disruption that Fairlife experienced, which affected multiple plants across the country. With those plants still operating below full capacity following that cybersecurity event, milk that would have normally went into their UF and finished protein beverages has been redirected into balancing outlets which, in turn, made condensed skim much more available, and that increased availability was real. We saw a lot more local offers as a result. As operations normalize and those plants continue to ramp up, I would expect some of that excess product to be reabsorbed, although the timing remains still uncertain. Condensed skim has been tight for much of the year. Obviously, that’s been supported by the steady Demand from both Class II and III. And the strong nonfat demand has also kept skim solids competitive. As those dryers continue to pull available skim [00:06:00] away from the condensed markets school milk will also begin here, as Greg alluded to, which should move more milk back into the bottling programs and further reduce the amount of condensed skim available for manufacturing for these Q4 months. Moving over to the UF side of things, that continues to have the strongest long-term demand story. We’ve touched on it almost every podcast, but high-protein dairy appears to have real staying power. Demand is coming from athletes, consumers focused on weight management, older adults trying to maintain muscle. And that’s even beyond the folks using the GLP-1 medications who are told to prioritize protein. That demand also extends well beyond protein shakes. It’s into yogurt, lactose-reduced products, other nutritional beverages, other applications that require greater control over protein, lactose and total solids. But the other key part of that is the cheese, as that’s an important outlet for UF. As those butterfat levels in the farm milk continue to rise, high protein UF can help rebalance that cheese vat and improve yields. The challenge is that cheese makers are competing with higher value protein beverage and yogurt for that same UF supply. More UF capacity is expected to come online, though, here later this year and into ’27, but that does not necessarily mean that the market will become over-supplied. I think the key question is whether capacity grows faster than the demand. The category obviously remains strong, although that increased competition from a wider retail perspective and potential consolidation could eventually slow growth. But so far that demand has continued to outperform expectations. That strong UF demand also tightens the broader skim market because, obviously that milk is moving into UF and no longer available for condensed skim or nonfat. But, overall improving milk production should create more opportunities, particularly in the skim market. However, that strong demand has regional processing constraints and plant reliability all play key factors here long term. Josh White: So we’re probably not gonna be moving in a straight line here, right? As production responds, we’re trying to anticipate how demand continues to grow. We definitely know it’s in vogue. It seems structural, like that we would see more of these protein-enhanced consumer products coming online that are using liquid protein, as well as the popularity of the whey products and some of the others. But over the course of the next 30, 60 days, how are you feeling like that balances out? I heard you mention that we don’t really see a lot more UF coming on until maybe later in the year. In the meantime, if I’m mapping this out correctly, particularly in the eastern half of the country, we’re already snug milk. We have a lot of capacity for cheese that has been filling. We got hit with some heat, and we’re trying to digest the impact on milk production, but we believe there’s been some already in mid-July. And Class I’s gonna start to ramp up in August, and at the moment it feels to me like we’re gonna be competing pretty heavily in all of these sectors for the available milk solids that are out there, and it’s already snug [00:09:00] before the Class I starts to pull their share. Jared Miklasz: Yeah, it feels like a perfect storm here. Everyone’s competing for those solids in the back half of this year before that additional capacity comes online to meet some of that demand. And that competition’s been playing out all summer, but I think it’ll really heat up as we get into August and September, and October, and schools start ramping up, and all, everything aligns there. So I think it’ll be very interesting to see, if any product sectors get shorted. On the protein beverage side they have shelves to make sure they stock and keep that space at the big box stores as well. So I think they’re gonna try to get their milk, but you alluded to it, these, investments on the cheese side, they’re gonna wanna keep those plants full. Jared Miklasz: So it’s gonna be interesting to watch. Josh White: June milk production was a little bit higher than maybe most expected, 2.3% for the country, if I read it right. But most of that heat impact has been in recent weeks, right? The recent three weeks, so since July. We’re looking at a milk production number that’s dated, but we’re experiencing a milk production climate right now that seems to be a little bit tighter for a variety of reasons. But probably one of the bigger one is normal seasonal summertime heat, but may be coming on a bit earlier than expected and a bit stronger than we’re used to at this point in time. We’ve had more headwinds in July. Let’s talk cream for a second. Butter is moving counter seasonally. Overall, the market still feels heavy, but normally this time of year we wouldn’t be moving in the direction that we are. So let’s go with where everything starts. What’s happening on the cream side of things? Jared Miklasz: Yeah, fat remains tight, which has been, somewhat surprising given the amount of milk being separated for the high-protein beverages and all the value-added skim products that we just talked about. As those markets continue to grow, obviously that generates butterfat and that has to find a home. But based on that, I, I would’ve expected more cream to be available, but instead that market has continued to absorb it. Butter is currently trading in the 155 to 160 range, well below levels that we saw last year. And at those levels, cream is much easier for the manufacturers to use in ice cream, cultured dairy, cream cheese, and other Class II applications. It reduces that risk far as finished product and carrying less value. but part of that may be the manufacturers that, you know, adding that fat back into formulations after pulling back when butter prices were much higher. Lower fat cost obviously as far as the taste and texture can improve flavor and yield across the board for a range of products. Even with the stronger milk production and continued growth in the farm level butterfat I do not expect that the cream market is suddenly gonna become long, particularly during these summer months and with the heat that’s still on the horizon and pressure on both milk and volume and components. Over time, the additional milk and fat production should help bring the market back into better balance. But right now, it’s been long. That processing capacity will remain just as important as the total volume that’s being produced. Josh White: Is Class II performance still very strong this year? Jared Miklasz: It is, yeah. They’re the ones that are soaking up the majority of that fat right now. Josh White: Do we have a sense for if we had to try to measure the whole category, and I realize there’s a lot of products that go [00:12:00] into that category, it’s pretty difficult to paint the broad brush. But do we have a sense for are people looking at current markets as an opportunity to build structural inventory, or are they just moving that much more at the shelf? Jared Miklasz: I don’t have a good answer for that one, man. Josh White: Yeah, I don’t either. It’d be curious. ‘Cause if our Class II performance, we’ve seen just domestic performance in certain products look really well year to date. Like the amount of nonfat that’s been consumed domestically, the Class II numbers suggest that things are going really well in, in those markets. I’m just curious if consumer demand is up that much for some of these because maybe pricing promotions or other things, or if there’s been some structural stock building in anticipation of needs the rest of the year. Let’s move on. Let’s talk about cheese a bit. Cheese just made a pretty decent move higher. In Europe similar things, mozzarella prices have really started to move higher in Europe. And now all of a sudden with the U.S. moving higher and European cheddar quite a bit lower than the bounce they saw on their mozzarella, we’re not maybe in quite as an advantageous price position internationally as we were before. How do we see that playing out? Jeff Daanen: You just wonder the real effect is it gonna be for a month or two when we see what happens and how much cheese is out there. But there is cheese available. If you wanted extra loads, they are there. We’re pretty heavy in cheese. The only thing that we don’t have a lot of right now is mozzarella. A lot of that had to do with the World Cup, and there’s some plants that shut down for maintenance. Like Jared said, it was kinda like the perfect storm. plants shut down. People were eating a lot of pizza because of the World Cup, a lot of house parties and stuff like that. But in about another month we’ll be out of this, and there’ll be plenty of mozzarella available. Jennifer S. Kuo: Our price is a lot higher right now than compared to Europe. especially in the Middle East, and even in Asia still, so many people delayed what they would’ve normally ordered in Q2 and going into Q3 because of all the uncertainty, the much higher fuel costs. Everybody has depleted their inventory. And despite our higher prices, we are still getting many requests now still from the Middle East. Pricing really isn’t an issue. It’s just how soon can you ship, and how soon can you guarantee that it’ll get here? So price does not seem to be the barrier right now. Everybody has used their inventory, and they all need to restock. We have the supply. They’re willing to pay a little more. Europe hasn’t really been a conversation with any of our customers. They have not really tried to push back and say, “Europe is better priced right now.” But yeah, the demand is definitely there right now, despite the jump in our market recently. Josh White: Interesting. So it feels like the international demand’s there. The customer’s de-stocked. But at least for products other than mozzarella, we feel really heavy domestically. Is that still accurate? Jennifer S. Kuo: Yeah. Yes. Yeah. But we are seeing the demand in the Middle East is not just for mozzarella right now. It is more geared towards [00:15:00] cheddar. We are getting more inquiries for cheddar than mozzarella right now, which is good for us, both white and color. Tyler Jokerst: Obvious barriers there or risk can be tied around the current situation in Iran as well. Jennifer S. Kuo: The Red Sea seems to be an issue now as well. Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. Josh, you’re dealing with updated issues if the Houthis are getting involved, when you’re looking at Yemen that’s a direct effect on the Red Sea, which is the other half of that peninsula . And then it starts to limit the only access point that you can have into the Red Sea being through the Suez Canal. So it can create a major supply chain choke point for just anybody trying to get any kind of imports into the region. Josh White: Including Europe, right? Tyler Jokerst: Yeah, because, that tends to be a route that can cut down on transit times. So you can run into situations where you might have to go around the Cape of Good Hope to get where you need to get. So it can cause a lot of complications across the board. Josh White: So, you got an international market that does demand product. They’re not well covered, but we’re constantly fighting our ability to access and supply that demand. Same story two months later. Jennifer S. Kuo: Yeah, and freight has doubled, And that did not seem to be a barrier. Tyler Jokerst: Nope. Josh White: Demand seems resilient then, huh? Tyler Jokerst: Yeah, so I guess Josh, not being too familiar on the dairy side, still learning a lot I would imagine that means the price difference there is significant enough where historically logistics has been a major barrier for U.S. product getting international. I think that clearly the opportunities continue to make themselves clearer for international growth with U.S. dairy product. Josh White: If we could wave a wand and the conflict was over tomorrow, which is not likely, I understand that, do we think that customers are going to step in heavily and demand’s gonna feel strong at that moment because they’re not getting an adequate amount of product? Or have they been purchasing to be safe all along and trying to stay ahead of their needs? Jennifer S. Kuo: I think they’ve been trying to wait it out, and they keep thinking, “Oh, okay, it’s, the war is over, the war is over,” and it keeps restarting. I don’t think they have any inventory now. They wanna know how fast can you get it here and how much. Josh White: Specifically as it relates to the Iran conflict, where are we at in terms of demand destruction? Because when we started these conversations, and I think we had Cefetra on a call probably almost two months ago now, and we asked the question: how long does this have to go on before it goes into notable demand destruction within the region because people can’t import the raw materials they need to make the products that they consume? If price isn’t, really the barrier at the moment, it still is access to the supply. I think at that point in time we talked about August sort of being, like, the magic month to where if this lasts into August, we’re gonna start to really hurt dairy consumption within the region. Jennifer S. Kuo: I think that’s still the magical question we’re trying to find the answer to. Tyler Jokerst: The war is prolonging the situation. It could’ve happened by now, but that huge variable is not really giving us a good read. Josh White: Do we think the answer is gonna be universally the same between milk [00:18:00] powders, butterfat, and cheese, or is it different for different products? Jennifer S. Kuo: The answer’s the same because it’s availability. They’re all on the same boats, right? Yeah. You don’t ship cheese separately from powder separately from butter. I think it’s all just access based. Josh White: I’ll clarify the question. It’s less about the ability to get the product and more about at what point in the timeline when you can’t get it conveniently, do you start to have demand destruction on the consumer level? Because you can’t get the cheese, which you will find its way to retail, the butterfat, which is largely an ingredient for processed cheese applications and other things, the milk powders, which serve some of the same and some different manufacturing products. All three of them overlap each other like a chain, but the cheese is closest to consumer. The butterfat is very close to consumer as an ingredient making some of these processed cheese products and other things, milk powder is going into some of that, but then also as an ingredient maybe in other applications like bakery and some consumer packaged goods. If we get into August, which of those areas is most vulnerable? Is it the consumer products because they really are bringing it in just in time, they have to make what they make they’re considered more luxury type items that, you can cut from your diet if you can’t get it versus maybe something along the lines of manufactured products that they may have more deep inventories of, and they will run out, but they might not be running out until September or beyond. At this moment I don’t get the impression talking to European colleagues, talking within our own team in the different product categories, it doesn’t feel like material demand destruction yet. It seems like we’re still finding a way to get some product in, seems like they’re still willing to pay for product, seems like some stuff’s still happening. It’s just at some moment that will come to a head, I think. And we initially expected by August it would become a real problem that meant we’re going to be missing dairy demand out of that region. And we’re knocking on the door of August. Josh White: We’ll be right back after these messages. Diego Carvallo: I’m Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co.. T.C. Jacoby & Co. specializes in international dairy markets. For new customers that haven’t done business with Jacoby, I would tell them that we can provide them with many of the powders, dairy products that they consume, not only with the physical product, but we can also help them mitigate their risk. We know dairy. We know the main players. We know the main providers for the whole value chain. We are one of the strongest players in the U.S. market because we have contact all the way from the farmer moving the liquid milk all the way to the end users that buy the end products. I am Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co., and we bring dairy to the world. Josh White: Let’s shift gears. Diego, let’s talk a bit about nonfat dry milk, skim milk powder, and what’s happening, globally [00:21:00] there. Yesterday, we had a firm GDT. What does that tell you? Diego Carvallo: We’ve seen the market under heavy pressure, mainly in the U.S., which was the market that was the most expensive for the past I would say six months. It seems like the U.S. market is going back into a price range where we’re competitive internationally. And that had to happen because the U.S., as we’ve mentioned before, we need to export about two out of three loads that we manufacture in the U.S. for nonfat. And we were not competitive for a long period of time. Our prices were $400 to even $1,000 per metric ton higher than European prices. And now that we finally have plenty of availability we have to find a price where exports become competitive again. And that’s what’s happened. In the past few weeks, we’ve had a few additional factors that have added pressure to prices, and that’s what Jared mentioned on plant interruptions in the U.S. And that’s definitely shifted some skim milk concentrate and some products to the drying towers. And that’s adding a lot of pressure onto prices. We’re seeing more inventory, more product availability from the manufacturers. The market is looking for other outlets, and those outlets are in the Middle East, in Asia, and other places, maybe South America, where the cost of the freight has gone up to an extent where we’re paying probably twice what we used to pay. So the exports price has to come down so that we’re competitive again. We should find some support in the current levels. We’re close to the $1.40s and the physical offers are even lower than that especially for SMP. For SMP, we’re seeing offers close to the $1.35, which is ten cents under the current futures. And I think at that level, we’re starting to be competitive even with a more expensive freight rate. I think we should find support unless we start seeing Europe trend lower and New Zealand prices also trending lower, which hasn’t happened at this point. A lot of availability around and not too many customers looking for product at this moment. Josh White: Okay, on the whey product side, it is absolutely the definition of a summer market right now. I think after two quarters of prices constantly moving up for whey proteins, and the whey market trying to rebalance so many changes over the past year. Over the course of 2025 and into early 2026, we saw a lot of large sweet whey powder producers upgrade their facilities to higher protein WPC80 or WPI. At the same time, there was the commissioning of a very large sweet whey powder facility in Texas that is offsetting the production that we’ve lost, and that’s been a bit turbulent. And that just means that we’re exchanging approved brands for both domestic [00:24:00] customers and international customers for a new brand that needs to be approved. And so we’ve seen a trading range for sweet whey powder that’s been 60 to 70 cents for quite a while. But the actual spot market has seen a lot more basis volatility. New brands trying to buy their way into business, brands that remained that have legacy or approvals for perhaps Asian clientele in a market that seems to be pretty short right now, they’re getting bigger basis premiums. So sweet whey powder has been largely range-bound, but that doesn’t really tell the story. It’s been a big shift in who has the product and where that product can go. On the protein side that story’s pretty well-documented and well-reported at the moment. It is shockingly resilient. Diego mentioned that milk proteins are realizing the benefits of this health and wellness movement. Some of the current trade relationships might be supportive of milk proteins. Aside from that, we’re just seeing more demand, people formulating to it, buying more and using more of it. Jared talked about the UF side of things and how there’s just new demand creation in a lot of different categories from beverage to, some of the other Class II products. The whey category remains just on fire. It seems to be both products. Now, we had two quarters in a row where people were terrified they couldn’t get access to supply, and they watched pricing increase by 20-plus percent. Now we get into the summer and pricing hasn’t increased over the last few weeks, and that’s making some people nervous. You’ve got a lot of people out there that are like, “Oh, it’s not gonna continuously go up. does that mean this market’s going to crash?” It’s always possible, of course. These markets don’t move one-directionally. We should expect a retracement at some moment in time. But everything I read from the consumer demand aspect of it, I don’t see any cracks in the floor. What I see is we’ve moved pricing up so rapidly that now that people are going into the summer months and maybe taking some holidays, if they come back in August and need to replenish, this thing goes right back up. If they come into August and find out that the movements on the shelf at the grocery stores have slowed as much of a price increase we’ve seen, we should look out. So I’m not in either camp right now. I guess I’m a little bit more of the belief that the consumer profile seems to be growing, seems to be willing to pay the prices that we’ve seen. And every time we start to think that the GLP-1 catalyst will end or mature, the GLP-1 drug gets cheaper, you can take it in a different form, and a larger percentage of Americans are actively using the drug. I’m also starting to see the GLP-1 aspect of the protein market get reported in Europe more. We have to remember, the U.S. market is nowhere near mature and in terms of its adoption of GLP-1 as a weight loss tool, consumers are educating themselves at a rapid level, trying to understand what the right foods are, and dairy seems to be on the right side of that discussion. Whey protein maybe being the biggest beneficiary. Milk proteins, though, certainly [00:27:00] a beneficiary. And the rest of the world still can follow. So I don’t know. I remain pretty bullish protein overall, but I think it would be irresponsible to assume that this is a one-directional market, and that it’s just gonna resume an uptrend as we get past the summer slowdown that we’re experiencing in North America and Europe. We need to be aware of what some of the potential upside shocks could be to the market as the globe enters those months where we produce the least amount of milk. We should keep our eye on a few potential shocks. Not all to the upside, some to the downside but I think we’re vulnerable to see maybe a little bit of volatility in the months to come. Let’s go through the group as sort of kind of a fun round the table. Most important discussion or impactful thing in the past week that has your attention. So Tristan, let’s start with you. Tristan Suellentrop: One of the most notable developments is the continued shift towards milk proteins. As WPC80 and WPI prices remain expensive and a little bit more difficult to source, I’ve noticed more people are evaluating MPCs as a partial replacement which is creating stronger demand across the entire high proteins category. Kait, how about you? Kait Holzschuh: There does seem to be a lot of demand for whey permeate and lactose abroad that you just don’t see in the U.S., so I find that kinda interesting. Josh White: Yeah, good point. We didn’t touch on that, but it started with lactose, and now it’s even cascaded to whey permeate. The amount of inquiries that we’ve received in the past couple weeks across all sectors: international feed sectors, international food sectors, domestic food, and domestic feed. There’s clearly it’s clearly a tight market. Great point. Thank you. Miguel? Miguel Aragón: It might be just isolated to Mexico, but there is a glut of cheese in Mexico. When we were in the $1.40s, probably, a lot of cheese made its way down there, and it has affected the market right now. With the prices now, the hope of the customers that we talk to is that things will level off. But right now, still a lot of cheese, a lot of cheap cheese in Mexico. It affects current business right now. And the second one is demand during World Cup was not as good as expected, and this comes from the Association of Supermarkets and Convenience Stores in Mexico. So two things that really caught my eye in the last two weeks. Josh White: How do we feel the same question would be answered in the U.S.? Do we think that the World Cup impact on demand was worse than, equal to, or better than expected? Jeff Daanen: I think it was better than expected. Because when this first came out, I didn’t think that it would impact a whole lot. But when it was all said and done, it just seems like the snack part of the cheese business really took off, along with pizzas. I think there were a lot of pizzas consumed. That’s why mozzarella’s really tight, and it probably will be for at least another month or so. Josh White: Jonathan? Jonathan B. Powers: Yeah, I think probably the most impactful thing is talking about WPC [00:30:00] 34 and nonfat. Nonfat and SMP hasn’t been readily available in the Midwest, and there’s a need for that protein range in the calf milk replacer world, and we’re starting to get a lot more conversations around stockpiles for those products. As we’ve discussed, WPC 34 is kind of a dying product. There’s not a lot of people that are making it anymore, and there seems to be a lot of companies, even in the food space, that are still very reliant on it and trying to satisfy the need for it when it isn’t necessarily available. We’ve had people reach out for permeating lactose. The volume of requests has been astonishing, honestly. Josh White: Manuel? Miguel Aragón: Where I have a lot of my focus is cheese in general. It just feels like there is something brewing right now. Technically, it’s entered a uptrend right now again and it’s still choppy, right? At least on the futures board. But it feels like there’s opportunities there and yeah. So I’m just soaking up everything I can hear about cheese right now and really try to get a feeling for the market there. Besides that, nonfat is just shaving off more and more. We basically broke the support we had for a long time now, so it really feels like it’s on another leg down. Yeah, we’re gonna see how that plays out. I personally also think we’re gonna find support in the 140s. We might test a little lower than that, but at some point, it should stall and become a little more stable. Josh White: Diego, based on what you said about S&P in the 130s and then what Manuel just said about the technical support and what that looks like, that kind of aligns, right? Because I think I heard you make the comment that as we, a 140 nonfat, you can make S&P cheaper for those that don’t really pay attention to the difference. Lactose is really tight, too. Do we think that there’s a connection to why the milk sugars are tight, and all of a sudden, we are seeing pricing that’s a little bit more SMP competitive globally? Diego Carvallo: I do think that there is, yeah. We made very little SMP for the first six months of the year because it wouldn’t make any sense to export when we’re $1,000 higher than European markets. Now that we’re competitive, it does make a lot of sense to make SMP, especially when protein is very high and you can take it down with a cheap product like lactose or milk permeate. It makes sense to find demand in other markets for the SMP. So I do think that the demand for the carbohydrates has picked up now that nonfat has become competitive again. ​ Josh White: For the benefit of everyone so we’re all talking the same language, nonfat dry milk and SMP are typically universally used in applications, but they’re very different products. What we call nonfat dry milk is an unstandardized product. That specification is a minimum protein percent of 34. But today’s productivity [00:33:00] of components in our milk supply, the average unstandardized protein level in nonfat dry milk is pushing 38 or more percent at least 37 and a half in most times. Now, the rest of the world standardizes their product, and they standardize to either one of two things: 32%, which is the old Codex, 34%, which I think is a little bit more common. Or at least it’s common out of the U.S. that we would standardize to 34%. When we say why would there be a connection between lactose and milk powder, you can add lactose or milk permeate to your nonfat supply to bring the protein down to a standard level. So when we stay standardized, that’s what we mean, where they’re basically bringing it to a 34% protein, most commonly out of the U.S., and then that allows us to compete for international business. Certain markets can use either, but certainly would, prefer a higher protein content at a competitive price. So when I mention our futures are at $1.40, that’s nonfat, and our average nonfat has a higher protein. So if we’re standardizing, that means that we can add this cheaper lactose or cheaper milk permeate to the volume, and that lowers the overall price. So the whole conversation there was more or less like, “Hey, are we making SMP now, and are we competing globally for international business? ‘Cause if we are, that also tells us at least we’re closer to finding a support price, finding some type of global support level for the product.” But you’ll hear us really start to break down the difference between SMP, nonfat dry milk. But many customers can use either. I wouldn’t say most, but many Okay. I, we covered a lot. Yara, any discussions over the past week that you that you feel were most interesting? Yara Morales: It’s a lot of inventory in Mexico, and the customer was offering me nonfat dry milk instead of buying. That was the most surprise, we know that since the price is going down so bad, and they have a lot of inventory with high prices. They have a contract that they have to take it. That’s hard for them. They are losing a lot of money. And the inquires, they looking for whey permeate. They are looking for lactose and proteins. But it’s hard to get the whey permeate and the lactose like you mentioned it. But this is the inquiry we have in Mexico so far, just protein basically because otherwise it’s difficult right now. Josh White: Yeah, agreed. Okay, all, I know it was an unusual discussion. Thanks for joining us today on the Milk Check. Mike Brown: For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. [00:36:00] Jacoby and Co. because I get to help people Make their businesses more successful. ​

July 21, 202643 min

Who Wins the Next Decade of Milk Production?

The next decade of global dairy growth may look very different from the last one. For years, much of the world’s additional milk came from pasture-based systems. New Zealand added acres. Production expanded across parts of South America, Australia and Europe. But those regions are not growing the way they once did. Today, the next unit of milk is increasingly coming from grain-fed systems. That shift could put the U.S. in the driver’s seat for global dairy markets over the next 5 to 10 years. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team are joined by Scott Briggs of Bridgecape Commodities. We dive into: Why marginal milk growth is shifting from grass-fed to grain-fed systems What environmental policy and structural inefficiencies mean for European milk production Why China is shifting from building milk supply to creating higher-value dairy products Why the U.S. will need to become a more consistent exporter of butterfat Plus, beef income has helped support dairy farm margins and encouraged producers to breed more cows to beef. What happens if beef prices fall? The cows are ready. The plants are being built. What’s next for U.S. dairy? Listen to The Milk Check episode 102: Who Wins the Next Decade of Milk Production? Also available on Amazon Music , Apple Podcasts , Spotify , and YouTube . Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Intro commercial [Text not included.] Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on the Milk Check. Ted Jacoby III: You’ve got the U.S. dairy industry now in a position where even the worst-case scenario continues to be a threat for Europe or the rest of the world from a milk supply standpoint. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. This week, we are excited to have Scott Briggs from Bridgecape Commodities joining us. Scott lives in Australia and really understands what’s going on with dairy markets on that side of the pond. Scott, thank you so much for joining us. We’re excited to have you. Why don’t we start by having you tell everybody a little bit about yourself? Scott Briggs: Thanks very much for the intro, Ted. I’m Scott Briggs, Bridgecape Commodities, based down in Melbourne, Australia and work with a number of Asian and Oceanic consumers to try and understand global dairy markets and try and help them risk manage. Thanks very much for the opportunity to be a part of the podcast. Ted Jacoby III: Scott, thanks for joining us. We’re really excited to have you. We’re gonna have a little bit of a debate: How do U.S. dairy production costs compare to those in New Zealand, Europe, and China today? Do we think the U.S. is building a lasting competitive advantage? And what does that mean for the global dairy market over the next five years? Scott, I’ll start with you. You’re based down under. Do you think the U.S. Is developing a competitive advantage, or do you think New Zealand will continue to be in the driver’s seat? Scott Briggs: It’s a very big topic Ted, but I think the short answer is that yeah, the U.S. is really in a great position to drive global dairy markets over the next 5 to 10 years. One of the major things that’s changed probably since about 2015, we’ve been in a transition period where the marginal milk growth is not coming from a grass-fed system anymore, it’s coming from a grain-fed system. Between 2000 when a lot of global dairy markets started to deregulate and we had falling trade controls and those sorts of things, quotas in the EU eventually coming off, between 2000 and 2015, the marginal milk growth was really coming from a grass-fed system, be it New Zealand growing the number of acres that it planted or the number of acres that it farmed. Places like Uruguay or southern Brazil or Argentina growing quite strongly and other parts of Europe and Australia as well. So that was the driver of the growth, and that’s why we saw that volatility in global dairy markets driving back towards a grass-fed cost of production. But since then, those places have stopped growing and really the next unit of growth or the next liter of growth comes from grains and ultimately that does mean that the U.S. is in a great position to respond to the milk production needs of the world. At the end of the day, you’ve got the greatest exportable surplus of grains and you’ve got a fantastic platform to grow from. That’s the 10,000-foot view of why the U.S. is in the box seat. Ted Jacoby III: You mentioned that even New Zealand is starting to go towards a grain-based system. Could you tell me a little bit more about that? Scott Briggs: I would say that’s pretty incipient, Ted, but there’s certainly steps that are being taken in New Zealand that seem to mirror what Australia’s been doing for probably the last five to 10 years. You have a marginal cost of production that is grain-fed and it’s being led by the U.S. At the moment, if we looked at the margins in the U.S. for a dairy farmer, they’re pretty good given your beef situation. But if you were to remove that beef situation or that beef revenue, you’re probably at a pretty low income over feed cost. But that’s still a highly profitable milk price for a grass-fed system. And a lot of the fixed costs are already being paid off, be it the farmer’s labor the equipment on the farm all of those overheads, they’re already being paid off by a pasture fed system. So, there’s a huge marginal return for that extra liter of milk that comes out of a pasture fed system. If you look at the steps that have occurred in Australia and that are probably starting to come to New Zealand, it is a lot more shared housing in wetter areas, feed pads, dry feed pads. It’s certainly not moving to the barn fed system that the States has got. More multiple calvers, if you like, to flatten out that milk curve. A lot more maize silage production, which just stores that little bit better and gives you more dry matter per acre as well. It’s these kind of marginal steps which have occurred a lot in Australia or even in some of our more grass-fed areas, and that are starting to occur in New Zealand. And some of the incentives that are being given, market-wise, in New Zealand to produce that shoulder milk or that additional milk are starting to respond with additional investment on farm. Ted Jacoby III: So, is maybe another way to put it that core pasture-based part of New Zealand dairy farming continues to be very profitable, but any marginal increase in milk production that would come from New Zealand, the cost of that marginal increase is probably the same or more likely probably less than the same marginal increase in milk production in the U.S.? Scott Briggs: Look, I would say that the marginal cost of production out of the States is pretty good. If you think that you’ve already got all the infrastructure paid for and it’s really just an additional growth there. But I think it’s more so the profit margins that sit in a pasture-fed system in New Zealand allow for that investment to try and get that little bit of extra milk as well. So, I wouldn’t say either or are better placed. It’s just that we do have a lot of low-hanging fruit in Oceania, if you like, to start moving into that kind of system. Ted Jacoby III: That makes sense. That makes sense. Mike Brown (2): One thing I think about New Zealand and why the system is the way it has been historically has been your cost of concentrates or grains hasn’t always been as competitive. You lead world price in a lot of cases, and your location makes you very competitive. Your dairymen have more room to pay some of those higher costs for that marginal production. So my question is the strong world price has a fair amount to do, obviously , with everybody’s growth, but in your case when you look at that difference in marginal cost versus that pasture based cost, are you more sensitive to that marginal change in price than maybe some other markets just simply because your feed costs are higher? Scott Briggs: Let’s have a look at world milk prices at the moment. The U.S. at $17 a counterweight, if you like, $16.50, $17 a counterweight. That’s low on your range. On the New Zealand numbers, that’s coming out at a $9.50 dollars per kilo in New Zealand dollars, which is a historically pretty high milk price. So, they do have that ability to just bring in PKE exports. One of the major sources of additional feed or additional milk growth in New Zealand is this palm kernel expeller which comes off of the palm kernel crushing. It’s kinda like soybean meal, if you like that they bring in from Indonesia and other palm kernel or palm crushing countries. Fonterra had placed limits on that for a long period of time because it was affecting the fat composition of the milk. Once they removed those limits, PKE imports went up 20% or 30% almost in one or two years. The last two seasons, New Zealand milk growth has been about 4% or 5% this year, and probably 2% or 3% the year before, so 6 or 7%. Nearly a third to a half of that has come from the additional energy that’s coming in the PKE. So it’s having a huge marginal impact on their growth, and it’s coming at a pretty low cost ’cause it’s a low-cost feed source. So, I think, Mike, going back to your question, they have that ability to grow because there’s such a lot of low-hanging fruit between that grass-fed cost of production, which is already paying for their farm, and the milk price that they’re getting paid, which is actually a marginal cost of production out of the U.S. Mike Brown (2): What kind of world fat price might change their incentive on PKE? We’re seeing a little bit of that here because it’s very expensive here, and people look at their marginal return. It isn’t, of course, near what it was when fat was $2.50. Do you think, depending where that world market settles, will that change the incentive to use PKE? ‘Cause in our case, it’s fat production is the real gain that you get compared to other alternative rations we feed. Scott Briggs: I think it’s seen more as just a bulk source of feed and source of energy- to get the cow up early in the season, Mike, and peak it as high as possible, and then to keep going on the shoulder. It’s a milk solids game rather than a tweak the fat percentage game. At $9.50 they’ll be feeding it. Mike Brown (2): Yes. Scott Briggs: $9.50 a kilo of milk solids they’ll be feeding it. Mike Brown (2): Oh, yes. Yeah. I would be feeding it here, too. Yeah. At that price for sure. Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: My thoughts immediately go to Europe. The U.S. is well-positioned for growth. New Zealand is building off a very profitable base, which insulates them and puts them in a very good position of at least maintaining their position in the global market. Where does that put Europe? Scott Briggs: Europe is an interesting situation where realistically I think that they’re gonna struggle for the main drivers of additional milk production. They seem to be struggling to add any additional land at a reasonable cost, whether it be to the feed base or to the dairy base. That’s obviously being driven by environmental policy, which is very different in Europe than it is say in the U.S. or even Latin America. So I think that they’re gonna struggle at that policy level to be able to keep driving forward. The other thing that does sit within Europe is that we’re only 10 years removed from quota coming off, and so we’re still in that process of losing milk production where we should in the more marginal areas, or from the smaller farms, or from the more marginal land, and trying to drive it into places like Germany or the Netherlands. And so whenever you’ve got a core base of pretty uneconomic sticky milk, it takes a fairly heavy price response to drive change in those farms. So down at the lowish milk prices that we’ve got globally at the moment and I say, I’m happy to debate that point. I think we’re at pretty low milk prices on the range since the end of COVID, particularly with the low feed prices. Where we are at the bottom of the price range, you’re gonna still struggle to get some of these European guys out given the subsidies that they’ve got. But that also means you’re not driving efficiency back into the system. So it feels to me like Europe’s gonna really struggle to meet the global needs and be a quick mover like the States has been. Probably the call-out on that one to me would be Russia. They’ve got probably huge settings if they wanted Russia and the Stans to really grow into dairy production. But it’s not gonna be something that’s being done for the rest of the world. I think it’s gonna be getting done for their part of the world and for China. Ted Jacoby III: Speaking of Eastern Europe, do you think Poland still has a lot of room to grow as well? Scott Briggs: I wouldn’t know the specific micro settings of Poland. It does seem like they are growing pretty well. If you look at the investments that are going into some of the Stans, eventually Ukraine and some of the other parts of the former Eastern Bloc, if you like, it does seem like there’s a lot of investment in Belarus still. It does seem like there’s a lot of investment going in there to help feed parts of the world that longer-term probably aren’t gonna be getting fed by the U.S. Ted Jacoby III: That makes sense to me. With all these different factors, what about China? China’s in a pretty interesting spot from a milk production standpoint. They really increased their milk production three or four years ago, and then more or less stabilized it. Where is their cost of production and where does China go from here? Scott Briggs: Probably the first point to make is that we’ve all learned not to bet against China on dairy production in the last four or five years on milk production in particular. That’s been an incredible rise. And I think the second thing is that lesson to me is then, don’t bet against them and what they might be able to do with the quality of the product, and the investments that they’re making in manufacturing capacity now. There’s a huge push from China to value add, particularly on the protein side, and to then try and drive that down in sales into Southeast Asia and other parts of the world. They’ve obviously got a huge domestic market, but when it comes to starting to grow into things like processed cheese or fat exports or even micellar casein exports and MPC exports, that’s where I think that their next push is gonna be, is trying to move out anything that they don’t need domestically. So it’s not just gonna be bulk whole milk powder, which has been the story of the last two or three years. The structural issue that they’ve got is that their population versus their arable land is just huge. That’s a long-term limiter, if you like, for how much you can push into exports. Ultimately, as their productivity grows and their incomes grow, they’ll be consuming more dairy themselves. The steps that we’ve seen the last four or five years were really about shoring up domestic milk capability so that they weren’t a victim of world markets, and then now they’re trying to value add that milk. They’ve learned the lesson that you don’t grow milk but not grow factories, and they’ve learned the lesson that you don’t grow demand without growing milk. The policy now is, let’s do step changes as productivity rises to drive income rises. I think that they’re gonna be putting a push on certain functional products into Asia But I don’t think that they’re necessarily in a place to be the driver of global milk production because ultimately their cost of production, going back to where you started, Ted, is higher, and it’s structurally higher because of the fact that they just don’t have enough arable land for the population that they’ve got. Ted Jacoby III: But with China doing that and really trying to expand into value add and even trying to export, I gotta believe that’s causing Fonterra and the other New Zealand exporters to really shift their export strategy. What’s happening there? Scott Briggs: When you look at Fonterra, their stated strategy is to basically be a skim protein and fat company. They have recognized that the days of whole milk powder are limited. China went through a period where they went from 500,000 tons of imports pre-COVID to 800,000, and now they’re back down to 500,000 again. They’ve really gone through that boom and during that period, Fonterra’s basically said, “We need to move out of whole milk powder and move back into being a skim and fat company.” And when I say a skim and fat company, a skim protein and fat company. And so, we have seen them push 50 to 70,000 tons more skim into Southeast Asia. But what they’re now starting to do is to value add that skim, similar to what the U.S. is doing: putting on more ultrafiltration in front of dryers, ’cause that’s the highest marginal investment that you can do. Starting to do more MPCs, starting to do more value add on the fat side, as well. There’s been some huge investments in UHT cream which are gonna be going ahead or have already gone ahead and are being launched for this year, which draws fat away from butter and AMF. Overall, their stated strategy is to be a nutrition and food service company. Nutrition: protein-heavy products. Food service: fat-heavy products. And so they’re moving away from that whole milk powder. I think that the next stage for them is to try and drive those two sorts of products into Southeast Asia. Because China itself is already quite a big market for those sorts of products and is probably screaming out for, “How do we not use WPC and WPI?” ‘Cause that’s the highest priced protein in the world right now. So how do we move away from that? I think they’re also trying to help Southeast Asia grow protein as a category. Ted Jacoby III: But based on what you said of China’s strategy, it almost sounds like it means China and New Zealand are going head-to-head in that market in Southeast Asia. Scott Briggs: Yeah. Yeah. I think- And- And look, that’s a 5 to 10-year view. We’re already seeing traditional Fonterra markets or New Zealand markets, Open Country Dairy’s obviously nearly 20% of the market down there now, as well, and are making their own steps towards value-adding fat. So that’s always one to keep in mind. We’re certainly seeing a competition of powder flows and functional product flows from China, including fat, laminated fat, pastry butter, those sorts of things, coming into Southeast Asian markets that were traditionally New Zealand-dominated markets. Diego Carvallo: Going back to China’s milk production, a lot of rumors about a disease in the northwest of China hand, foot, and mouth. Very little information. We have several customers that have asked about it. Without going down the rabbit hole, is there any update in that regards? Scott Briggs: Super important if it were to be a big story. I think that the likelihood of it being a massive story is low at the moment from what I’ve seen at least. The key thing to watch for me in China is always the spot milk price. They’ve got a fantastic not that it’s particularly visible, but they do have a huge trade of liquid milk market between different zones and between companies in specific zones. It’s a little bit like your plus/minus to the Class III. So that spot milk price to me is always the one which tells you: are they having any problems? And it does seem to me like the containment strategy was quite effective early on. Lock down the zones, stop the movement of the cattle. So yeah, it doesn’t look like it, but, it’s a bit of a black box. Diego Carvallo: So, we don’t expect a long-term impact to their production as of right now? Scott Briggs: Not at this stage, but that could change tomorrow. Ted Jacoby III: Everybody, we will be right back after these messages. Diego Carvallo: I’m Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co.. T.C. Jacoby & Co. specializes in international dairy markets. For new customers that haven’t done business with Jacoby, I would tell them that we can provide them with many of the powders, dairy products that they consume, not only with the physical product, but we can also help them mitigate their risk. We know dairy. We know the main players. We know the main providers for the whole value chain. We are one of the strongest players in the U.S. market because we have contact all the way from the farmer moving the liquid milk all the way to the end users that buy the end products. I am Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co., and we bring dairy to the world. Ted Jacoby III: Josh, I’m gonna put you on the spot. Is the U.S. gonna continue to increase our exports? And if so, who do we increase those exports at the expense of? How is that gonna play out? Josh White: Yes. We’re going to absolutely continue to increase our exports. The most obvious area is where there’s gonna be a need, and that’s fat, at the moment. It’s pretty well-noted that we’ve invested heavily in cheese production, boy, if those new cheese process facilities are running at the moment, they’re happy to have a co-product in whey proteins. Things are looking pretty good at the moment. As a result of that, we’re assuming that anybody who can produce cheese or process cheese is trying to process just as much as they possibly can. As a result of that, it seems pretty eminent that the U.S. will continue to have available cheese for the global consumer. Now we’ll take a look at the protein side. One of the expected results of this protein movement in the U.S., and now again, I wanna clarify this movement because I think there’s a lot of chatter about GLP-1 being the main driver, and I would almost view that as just a catalyst and a reason why the U.S. market might be leading in protein consumption. ‘Cause if you look around the world, this is a health and wellness trend that is not exclusive to the United States, not exclusive to Europe. It’s happening everywhere. We receive inquiries from all over the world, including import regions, for protein. Given the limitation on whey protein availability, one would assume that we’re gonna see quite a migration to milk proteins, and Scott did a great job of alluding to that earlier. We’re finding different ways of concentrating protein and delivering it to the consumer. The result of that, fat’s going to come along with it. I’ve listened to Gus, Mike and the team talk fairly openly about the incredible improvements in components over the past several years from the U.S. dairymen. Scott alluded to component growth in other parts of the world as well. We’re going to have surplus fat, and there’s going to be extra fat beyond what the U.S. consumer can take in, and as a result of that, we’re going to be hungry to capture market share in the global market. Now, you ask, “At whose expense?” And that’s a loaded question in some ways because I think there’s two things going on. I also think fat consumption globally is increasing, maybe not at the rate protein is and maybe not as popular right now, but if you look, ever since the early 2000s when we made this paradigm shift in the U.S. to moving away from the old food pyramid model and moving into this clean label, healthy consumable products, fat no longer was the enemy, and it seems like ever since that happened, the world has also agreed, and we’ve continued to see more clean label dairy fat being consumed per capita globally. So, two things will happen. One is the U.S., we’re in position to grow our milk production more quickly than anywhere else in the world. We have the infrastructure, currently, we have the economics to do that, and we might outpace that fat consumption growth globally. Which means then, yes, we will have to capture some market share. And from who? It, it’s either going to be Europe or Oceania, and I think that’s a seasonal thing. I don’t know that I would point to either single market as being the loser in that, other than that the dairy support and economic situation and the outlook for dairy growth in Europe seems to have more headwinds than the rest of the world. One would assume that they’re a bit more vulnerable, right now, to the U.S. capturing market share. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, what about fat? Joe Maixner: Josh summed it up pretty clearly. We’re going to have to continue to be a net exporter of fat. We’re gonna continue to add fat into our system with all of these high protein demand and these components that just continue to creep higher and higher. We’re not going to consume everything that we can supply. We will have to be a net exporter of fat moving forward until either the supply structurally shifts or we find a different way to utilize it. I agree with Josh and Scott that it’s going to be seasonal dependent on whose expense it comes at because I think that our fat market, our butter market specifically, is going the direction that cheese has gone over the past 15 years, where it becomes almost a cyclical market. We’ll be really competitive, we’ll get a lot of exports on the books, we’ll clean up our inventories, and then our pricing will spike, we will not be competitive on exports for a while, which will develop this surplus of domestic inventory and force us to depress pricing again and go back into the export markets. Josh White: We have a U.S. bias obviously, as we’re looking at the world. The one limitation to U.S. capturing fat market share is the reputation of U.S. fat being quite a bit different. Our commodity butter is an 80% salted butter. Our packaging is different. The visual appearance of our product is different. The flavor profile of our product is a bit different. Up until now, the opportunity for us to capture market share has happened largely in the processing sector as an ingredient to make something else. As of late, we’re starting to realize a little bit more of a win in, say, food service applications in developing markets and other things. From your perspective, how close is the U.S. to penetrating into the food service or retail business in import regions for butterfat? Scott Briggs: Yeah. It’s a good question. I think there’s two parts to that answer. The first is that you break down trade barriers slowly, but it happens. It’s been happening since the start of trade, right? You know, I do think that there’s the ability to continue educating the consumer to get them comfortable with the product, the appearance of the product. I think I said that to Joe once: U.S. butter, it’s not terrible. It’s a great tagline. But I’m not a marketing guy. It will continue to gain acceptance, I think, Josh. I think the second thing to recognize is that with Fonterra, so New Zealand, trying to put so much fat into food service applications, I think for the point of educating, as you say, what does that mean in Asia and China? It’s not necessarily just butter. UHT cream is just this massive category which keeps on growing in Asia. Asia’s not this singular thing. Like they’re all sub-markets. But as a generalization, bakery is huge through a lot of Southeast Asia China itself. If you travel there, it’s cakes, it’s pastries, it’s a hell of a lot of really nice product. It’s seen as a luxury good if you like and through the supermarkets and convenience stores and everything like that. That’s a huge sector which needs a more functional application. There’s a lot of growth in there. That’s actually leaving behind ingredient markets for U.S. fat, whether that be in Australia or whether that be into Southeast Asia or the Middle East. So that is actually to me, probably the lowest hanging fruit, and it’s what you’ve already seen. So it’s not like you need to necessarily change the spec immediately to go for these applications. It can be just as easily going for what’s been left behind by New Zealand. Just one point that I’d make about whose market share is the U.S. gonna take on certain products? The European milk growth in late last year really does mask the fact that we probably still need U.S. butterfat exports to balance the world market. If you were to take the 100,000 excess tons that Europe made in the second half of last year out of the market, say that was unsustainable milk growth for a period of time, once we eat through that stock, we’ve taken a lot of the U.S. growth, if you like. We’ve absorbed a lot of that growth in what you’ve made, and we needed it. So I do think that we’re going through a process of still eating through those European stocks overall, and that glut that we had, which was driven by two years of fantastically high milk prices. But once we get through that, the global consumer is buying $5,000 butter, and they’re buying $3,000 skim. And that is a price level that’s comfortable in a lot of the world. Mideast is obviously going through a few lumps right now, so we may have some problems on demand in the next six months. But once we get through that and, hopefully the conflict there is over and they return to some kind of growth, we do get to a position where we probably need U.S. fat in the world market. Mike, you made the comment about how well the U.S. farmer is now not feeding for fat, and it does seem like some of that fat component growth at least is slowing. Do you see responsiveness to fat prices significantly, and how can that change the U.S. fat balance of being a reliable or necessary exporter? Mike Brown (2): As far as producer decisions, I’ve had some conversations, particularly with cheese plants, who are seeing some changes and talking with their producers. And some are making some adjustment to ration changing sources, and what those sources are finding is what we’re seeing in the milk supply, protein remains relatively strong and still grows. Fat has slowed down a bit, and most of it is PKE. That seems to be the change. Talking with producers, I had a good conversation, actually, last fall with a very high producing Jersey herd who said that if fat gets below about $1.70, it doesn’t really make sense for him to feed PKE anymore because he isn’t getting enough return from it. I think there’s probably some doing that. Is it broad? I think when the U.S. cows are milking so well, they’re reluctant to make a lot of ration changes that might slow things down. But we’re seeing somewhat on the margin. Will it solve the problem? No, because it’s genetics. It’s the genomics, our selection for fat. There’s so much variability in fat genetics within cattle, particularly Holsteins, that they’ve been able to make huge progress, and of course that’s permanent. So I expect that fat will continue to stay high. So, will we see some moderate fluctuations from time to time? Sure. That market will, I think, have some effect, particularly since they’ve gotten so high. Will our trend change? No. We’ll continue to improve in fat and in protein with time just because genetic selection in the U.S., particularly with sexed semen and genomics, has just gotten so intense that I don’t see that changing. The rate of gain will slow because the base population is higher versus the sires that are being used, but that will continue. We may slow down. We’re not gonna turn around and go the other way. Ted Jacoby III: Awesome. Thanks, Mike. Jacob Menge: I was gonna stir the pot a bit and almost take the other side by saying I have a degree in economics, so I succumb to liking to pretend that free trade is how everything works in the world. And it doesn’t. And I think we’re pretty clearly going down this path of almost a bifurcated world of trade relationships. And I really think it would be a mistake to ignore that moving forward, especially with Russia potentially being able to supply China in the future. We’re almost taking for granted that everyone is gonna buy from the most efficient producer in the world, and we’re really going into this kind of tumultuous geopolitical landscape that it feels like we’re probably ignoring. I don’t think that changes the fact that the U.S. is still gonna have to export. We’re producing more than we’re gonna consume. We’re not gonna let the product rot. We’re probably not gonna shut down all these nice facilities we just built. But it does make me question what price we are going to be getting when we go to export the products. What happens to the basis on those export sales? There’s a big geopolitical issue when it comes to a lot of the analysis we’ve just been doing. Scott Briggs: How much of the cake is baked? How much growth are we guaranteed to see on U.S. milk supply in the next two to three years, and cheese supply, just as a function of these investments that have already been made? How much of the world trade has already bifurcated? China’s getting it from New Zealand. Okay, that could break. I could see that breaking. I could see the Middle East possibly breaking, like you’re already seeing Iran getting certain product from Belarus or you already seen China get part of it. So there could be massive breakages in there, you’re right. The challenge is if we were to stop trading between Russia, the ‘Stans, and China, if that became one zone and we all became the other zone, like the two biggest linkages are the Middle East and New Zealand, and you probably do flood the market if you were to stop that. Who would get hurt in that scenario? It’s probably Europe. It’s Gonna be a race to the bottom to try and kill some of the highest cost milk production. Yeah, how much of the cake is baked? Ted Jacoby III: I would say it is pretty baked. But I think of it more in terms of between the current trends we’re seeing and how sticky we suspect they are from a breeding-to-beef standpoint, specifically cattle supply, beef cattle supply, and being able to continue to supply the beef market with beef, I think we’re gonna continue to see some really good returns to dairy farmers breeding to beef, which means they are going to resist and be pretty resistant even when the milk price is low to reducing the number of cows in the U.S. That’s number one. That puts in a really hard floor. In addition to that, those dairy farmers, especially the really big ones, are making really good money when you add the beef income on top of the milk income, and they’re looking to continue to expand as a result. So, in terms of the capacity that’s already added, they’re gonna fill it up. In terms of the additional capacity, which, let’s just put it this way: Over the last two to three years, we’ve had a lot of new capacity. Over the next couple of years, we will continue to have additional capacity added, but at a lower rate than what we just saw, but it’s all gonna get filled up. I don’t think we’re gonna have a problem over the next three to five years filling the capacity that we build because I think that the income situation for the dairy farmer in the U.S., it’s just in a really good spot. Even if you take, what’s our worst-case scenario from a milk revenue standpoint? Whey protein prices collapse. We produce so much milk that butter prices stay low, nonfat prices stay low, cheese prices stay low. All that means is we’re just gonna be that much more competitive in the global market, and I think our overproduction is probably gonna hurt Europe more than it’s actually gonna hurt the U.S. Josh White: I’ll just maybe add to it that, the most obvious way that the U.S. has invested is to add a lot of cheese processing capacity over the past few years, massive investments. People are well aware of it. But the aggregate of all of the incremental expansions and all of that has been really significant as well. It feels almost imminent right now that we were already investing in dairy growth before the beef on farm income reached a level that it’s at today, and it just doesn’t feel like that’s going to change any time in the near future. And as a result of that, it only maintains or accelerates that desire to make more milk. We were having conversations 24 months ago about how would we have the heifers to grow the herd? How would we do this? We found a way to grow the herd. The component growth outperformed expectations, and it’s only been more consistently profitable because the revenue stream’s been spread across more things. So we’re gonna have milk, and if we’re gonna have milk, we’re going to figure out a way to process that milk. And so far, there must have been some really good foresight to do that and build all of this cheese processing capacity to absorb it up till now, and we’ve got a little runway left to continue to fill them up. But there’s conversations at every major place about how do we extend our put-through and extend our yield by shipping more condensed skim, by processing more UF milk products, by… I can go on and on. I don’t know if it’s exactly what you were asking, but are we done in investing in our ability to process more milk? I don’t believe so. The next move had to have already been thought about and has to be under construction. We’re years out from the one after that. I think there’s plenty that are thinking about the next move. Mike Brown (2): It’s kinda like the beef has created this amazing revenue stream for dairy producers in the U.S., and our use of sexed semen and beef selection has just improved that. Same with whey proteins and plant profitability. With these very high whey protein isolate and whey protein concentrate prices, even at a 70-cent whey market, your margins on your whey proteins are very high, which gives those plants a little more room to grow. But I think the other part is: we’ve always talked about growth in cheese, the milk proteins are growing, too, and as whey protein prices get higher, manufacturers and product developers are figuring out ways to use lower-priced dairy protein alternatives, and that market’s gonna grow as well. How much milk do we have left to dry into whey? How much milk are we gonna have left to dry into powder if those markets continue to grow? We don’t think they’re done yet. We think that growth is there. Will these prices stay where they are forever? Probably not, but the demand seems to be continuing to grow. Part of it isn’t will we grow our plants, it’s also what will we be making in those plants? Are we gonna be making more focus on other protein products than just cheese? Ted Jacoby III: I think one of the most ironic things about milk production in the U.S. right now is the fact that the biggest danger, the thing that would hurt the dairy farmer the most right now, is actually not milk cost. It’s beef price. What would happen if the beef price collapses to the point where breeding the beef is no longer profitable? We’re going to double the amount of dairy heifers we start producing. You know how that plays out? That plays out by, right now the number of lactations out of a cow has gone from two to three to four, which is decreasing the rate of increase of the components in the milk because you’re turning over a smaller percentage of your herd every year. All you’re gonna do is speed that up. So maybe our milk production plateaus or even drops a little bit, but the components in the milk increase will speed up as a result. You’ve got the U.S. dairy industry now in a position where even the worst-case scenario continues to be a threat for Europe or the rest of the world from a milk supply standpoint. Mike Brown (2): We look at the percentage of milk in the U.S. that is now produced by these extremely efficient, very well-managed, very well-leveraged herds, and so our susceptibility is less. It’s kinda like we’re going through a heat wave right now, Scott, and everybody says, “What’s that gonna do to milk?” A whole lot less than it used to because of the controlled environments of our modern barns. We’ve done a lot and kinda like I think in a lot of industries, we’ve had some good profitability, people have made investments for the long term. And when you make big investments for the long term, you don’t usually turn around. You’re committed to being in the business. I think the biggest thing for us, in my mind, is for years we’ve been looking at the whey and dry milk markets, exports are a huge part of those sales. Cheese is growing, and we’ve reached a point with cheese where those export sales are becoming more and more important, and so how do we sustain them over time? What do we need to do? I think a good example, Joe’s been working a lot with our opportunities in butter over the last few years and working with folks that we work with and what do I need to make to take best advantage of those export markets? We’ll continue to do that as well. We’re just thinking a lot more world demand than just, “I need to make a 40-pound block of cheddar and who will buy it?” We’re trying to think a little harder than that now. Scott Briggs: Mike, you touched on if we’d had the milk production growth that we’ve had in the last two years 10 years ago, we would’ve wiped out certain pieces of milk production around the world. The market would not have absorbed that level of additional product. Now, we certainly had a period in October, November, December last year, where things got uneconomic in certain part of the world, and we didn’t last. Because ultimately, the demand shone through and, having listened to the podcast, protein demand and that protein story is a huge part of that in the States. That, to me, is a trend that’s really only beginning around a lot of the other parts of the world. It can go underestimated from your side of the world. You guys are the vanguard in that. You’re the leaders in it. You’ve got the category. China’s got a great category in this area and is making some huge investments in it. But, we’ve just seen here in Australia and in Southeast Asia some massive investments from European companies into cottage cheese, into ready-to-drink categories with the principal idea of exporting them to Asia. And, that growth model into developing markets is always put a high price product in there that’s branded from a developed market, and then grow the category with the local champion. You get an imported product, it looks sexy and it looks great, and it’s like a luxury product, and then you grow the category by producing a lower price point product to try and then get the local population really going for it. And so that’s just started. The other thing that’s really hot in different parts of Asia is, funnily enough, processed cheese for food service. It’s a really quickly growing category. It’s a category that gets a lot of interest. We’ve spent a lot of time on the point of does the U.S. have a competitive advantage for supply, in this kind of changing world. I think one of the biggest pieces of competitive advantage that the States has is its ability to grow an export pathway. It’s a mindset; it’s a trade infrastructure, as well, with government relations and everything like that allows you to grow into world markets in a way that probably a lot of other places don’t have. If we’ve got a growing demand, and I made this point before, we might see a few lumps here, mainly because of the Middle East, right? The Middle East looks a little bit overbought, looks a little bit quiet. Southeast Asia’s having a few little hiccups with changes in Indonesia and some of their currency devaluation, like these sort of short-term issues. But longer term, it’s very comfortable for a Southeast Asian consumer buying $2,800 to $3,200 skim and $5,000 butter. These are price points that work now, which never worked before, that’s the growth price point now. I do think that we’re going to have a situation where the world market is gonna be the next engine for some of the growth in protein demand and fat demand as well. Tristan Suellentrop: Scott, being based in Australia, I’d be interested to hear your perspective on the potential super El Niño that was confirmed this week. How does that factor into your outlook for dairy production in Oceania over the next year or two? And how concerned should producers in Australia and New Zealand be if it develops as forecasted? Scott Briggs: So it’s a very detailed topic. The El Niño indicator that everybody looks at is the Southern Oscillation Index, which is screaming El Niño at the moment. The reality is that what impacts Australia and New Zealand is not just the El Niño. It can be a major impact, but we’ve also had years where it has had no impact, and probably even at a similar level of El Niño indicator. And the reason for that is the El Niño obviously talks about what’s happening out in between South America and Asia, so that pressure, but our weather system, particularly in our dairy regions, is just as impacted by how much moisture is exiting Antarctica and moving north, into the southern parts of Australia, which are our heavy dairy regions, and also into New Zealand. The other weather system that impacts our dairy production during spring and our moisture levels is how much tropical cyclone activity is actually exiting the Pacific Islands and moving down into the North Island of New Zealand, which really doesn’t have a lot to do with El Niño either. The key point is that, right now El Niño, yeah, it’s a real phenomenon, but it’s not the only thing that’s gonna impact Oceania. when you look back at the history, which we have, some years it’s a really important thing, and other years you can have a fantastic spring in what seems to be an El Niño year. The other point that I’d make is that we have fantastic moisture right now. We’re getting huge rainfalls through Australia particularly, but also in New Zealand, which are really recharging things over winter. Economics would also mean that we’ve all got a fair bit of silage buffered away from the last 12 months of good weather. So I don’t think, at this stage, we’re seeing anything that’s like a huge impact on Oceanic dairy, but it’s very early. The thing that we’re all gonna need to watch out for is how much does it rain, particularly in New Zealand in December. New Zealand in December, January, that’s really when we have to start looking at what might happen. Ted Jacoby III: Cool. All right. Scott, this was a fantastic discussion. Thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate your insight and your expertise in what’s going on the other side of the pond. Thank you. Thank you. Lockhart, thank you very much. Cheers, guys. Next time on The Milk Check. Will Loux: The U.S. exports as we go forward here over the next few years is at a crossroad. Do we swing back to balancing to milk fat, which would mean we’re probably short of protein? Or do we start balancing to protein, which means we’re gonna need to find homes for a heck of a lot more cheese and butter. Ted Jacoby III: Join us and our special guest, Will Loux from the U.S. Dairy Export Council as we discuss the future of U.S. dairy exports. Ending commercial: The best part of my job is working directly with cheesemakers and helping their businesses run better because they make wonderful, great products. Anything we can do to make them more successful not only helps them, but helps Jacoby. We look at how milk flows through their plant, what their real cost of products are, so when they’re making marketing decisions, making new investments, particularly on whey processing, they have a benchmark to use to determine what opportunities they have and what the returns would be. Whey has become so valuable with these high-protein markets. There’s added value that they can get by just condensing it, and maybe moving further down the supply chain in the longer term, making products themselves. My role is to help them cost that so they have a better understanding of what the opportunities can be. Longer term, we expect the whey protein market to remain very valuable. For one part of the supply chain to be successful, everyone has to be, and part of my role is trying to help people be as competitive as they can possibly be. My superpower is practical application of data and analysis. I believe firmly that Jacoby’s success is because we help our suppliers and our buyers be successful. I’m Mike Brown, and I love working for T.C. Jacoby & Co. because I get to help people make their businesses more successful.

July 9, 202630 min

Screwworm, Bird Flu and Foot-and-Mouth Disease: Is U.S. Dairy Ready?

Disease pressure is back in the dairy market conversation. New World screwworm has moved into the U.S. Avian flu is still lingering in dairy herds. Foot-and-mouth disease is also back in the conversation after a recent Dutton Ranch storyline raised questions about what an outbreak would mean for U.S. cattle and dairy. So, we got together the experts and asked: is U.S. dairy ready? Listen to the episode. Listen here . Also available on: Amazon Music Apple Podcasts Spotify YouTube In this episode: In The Milk Check episode 101, host Ted Jacoby III is joined by Jamie Jonker , chief science officer and vice president of sustainability and scientific affairs for the National Milk Producers Federation, and Sarina Sharp , market analyst for the Daily Dairy Report and Risk Manager at Ag Business Solutions. We break down what these disease risks mean for dairy cattle, milk production, farm-level disruption and market economics. We cover: How screwworm could disrupt individual dairy farms Why the closed border with Mexico is changing feeder cattle flows, beef prices and dairy farm economics Where avian flu stands today, and why current cases are not affecting dairy like they did in 2024 Why foot-and-mouth disease remains a low-risk, high-consequence threat for U.S. livestock Get up to speed on what animal health risks mean for milk production, dairy markets and farm-level decision-making Listen to The Milk Check episode 101: Screwworm, Bird Flu and Foot-and-Mouth Disease: Is U.S. Dairy Ready? Got questions: We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check TMC-Intro-final Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on the Milk Check. Sarina Sharp: The border is shut, and it doesn’t look like it will open anytime soon, so we just have this vacuum of Mexican beef cattle. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Today we are excited to have two special guests. First, we have Jamie Jonker, chief science officer and vice president of sustainability and scientific affairs for the National Milk Producers Association, And second, we have Serena Sharp, the excellent market analyst who does our weekly market report. Serena, Jamie, thanks for joining us today. We’re excited to have you. Jamie Jonker: Thank you for having me here. I think we’re gonna have a number of things that are quite timely to talk about today. Sarina Sharp: Thanks for having me again. Ted Jacoby III: In addition to those two, we have some of our usual suspects. We have Mike Brown, our VP of dairy market intelligence. We have Jacob Menge, our VP of trading strategy and risk management. We have my brother Gus, president of the dairy fluid group. We have Josh White, our VP of dairy ingredients. And we have Tristan Suellentrop on our sales and marketing team, and Manuel Polzer, who is part of Jake’s risk management team. Guys, thanks for joining us today. So the topic we’re gonna be discussing today, there are three different diseases that have been gaining news in terms of how it might be affecting milk production and dairy cows. The first would be screwworm which has come across the border from Mexico, the second is avian flu is back. And of course, the third is Dutton Ranch recently had an episode that talked about foot-and-mouth disease on their cattle farm in Texas. And so of course, we’re getting questions about that. But we’ll start with the one that’s probably getting the most attention, and that is screwworm coming across the border from Mexico. It is now in Texas, and it is in New Mexico. Jamie, why don’t you just give us a brief background on what is screwworm, and how does it affect dairy cattle versus beef cattle? Jamie Jonker: Yeah. Great question, Ted. New World screwworm is a fly that, lays its eggs in mammals. It was eradicated from the U.S. in the mid-1960s, and by 2002, it was eradicated all the way down to what’s called the Darien Gap in Panama. That is a forested area about 50 miles wide, where there are no official roads going through it. And so that was really great news about the many decades process to get it down there. What’s happened is starting in ’23, it started creeping back up through Central America through the movement of people and people moving with their animals. Got into Mexico in ’24. Started really taking off in Mexico in ’25, and then just this past June 3rd, we had our first official case in Texas. Today there are 27 confirmed cases in the U.S. 25 in Texas. Out of those about 16 are cattle, most of those are calves castrated males. There is at least one adult cattle in that. So far, all of those are beef cattle. What happens is the New World screwworm fly lays its eggs in any open wound. And when we think about a wound, I want people to understand that can be as small as a tick bite, so it doesn’t have to be a large gash on an animal. It’s very tiny. And what is very unique about the New World screwworm larvae, and also quite devastating, is that the larvae eat live tissue of the So when the eggs start hatching, and the female lays 200 to 300, it very quickly becomes an animal health and welfare issue for that individual animal. Unlike viral and bacterial diseases though, this is not directly transmissible from one animal to another. Obviously, as the larvae mature and become flies of their own, then they can continue to spread it in that area. But unlike what we’ll talk about in a little bit, the H5N1, which was highly transmissible between cows in an individual herd, this does not necessarily transmit from animal to animal. It’s when the larvae become flies, mate, and then the next generation can lay eggs in new animals So, what happens when it gets into these animals, in particular, newborn calves are highly susceptible because of the open umbilical area, they get in there, and, if left untreated, the mortality in newborn calves can approach fifty percent. However, highly recoverable if caught early and treated. Out of those twenty-seven animals, so far that have been identified at least one actually has been euthanized because that was the right decision for that animal. Where we are today, no dairy cattle so far as of June twenty-ninth when this is being recorded. But it is growing in terms of the geography where they’re finding domestic animals in Texas that have it. It’s a growing potential risk for dairy farmers that are in the Southwest. Ted Jacoby III: Jamie, sticking with beef cattle, does the beef industry handle infected cattle with screwworm right now? Jamie Jonker: Animals that have an infestation, essentially you have to clean out the larvae, then you treat the wounds. The other thing that you do is you wanna make sure that you do prevention treatment to prevent infestation from happening in other animals. Because once you have one animal infested, there’s likely a reproducing fly population there, and so there’s a higher risk for other animals in that location. There’s a number of products that are approved for prevention purposes. And they have withdrawal times, ranging, on the beef side, withdrawal times, thirty-plus days in some cases. Some of those products are also approved for use in dairy cattle. There’s a distinction that FDA does through its emergency use authorization and conditional approval processes that typically breaks between growing cattle and lactating cattle. For FDA purposes, lactating dairy cattle are twenty months of age or older, even if they’re not lactating. There’s only one product that’s approved for prevention in lactating dairy cattle at this point in time. That’s DECTOMAX. It’s an injectable product that has a nineteen and a half day milk withdrawal period and a thirty-plus day meat withdrawal period. Ted Jacoby III: Once these cows are infected and then treated, if it’s beef cattle, for at least 30 days they couldn’t be sold to a slaughterhouse, correct? Jamie Jonker: That’s correct. And we want to encourage folks to work with their veterinarian and only use those products that have been approved through the FDA processes. Because if you’re using other products, the withdrawal period is unknown; you’re setting yourself up to potentially have a residue issue. Ted Jacoby III: And how is National Milk right now working with dairy farmers in the United States to prepare for the possibility that we will have a infected dairy cow in the U.S.? Jamie Jonker: We are pulling together resources. We actually have a resource page on our nmpf.org website. And there’s a big pop-up right, right on top for New World screwworm resources for dairy farmers. We have some of our own resources. Obviously, there are lots of people putting together really great resources. We don’t need to recreate things that are done well, so we have links to other resources. We’re also keeping a keen eye on what’s happening as we get new detections in Texas, and potentially as the summer goes on, potentially in other states as well, and working with USDA, Texas Animal Health Commission, and others on keeping preparedness top of mind. Ted Jacoby III: It sounds like if you have a cow infected with screwworm, it’s reportable, and so the U.S.DA is keeping a register of where all the cows are that have been infected. Is that true for dairy as well? Jamie Jonker: Yes. If A dairy animal is found to have an infestation , the first thing we recommend, if you see something that you think might be New World screwworm in any of your dairy animals, contact your veterinarian. Because what we wanna have is an official sample taken so that they can determine whether or not it truly is New World screwworm, because some of these larvae and some of these flies, they look pretty similar, and you just can’t tell by a quick glance at them. But we get that official determination from USDA. What that does is that triggers a response, and that response is important because it’s the response to that individual animal, it’s a response to help mitigate the risk of spread on that farm and spread in that area. And when you have one or more animals that are found to have an infestation, a 20-kilometer zone is set up around them. That’s called the infested zone. There’s strict requirements on the ability for moving animals out of that zone. Then beyond that is another 20-kilometer surveillance zone. And the Texas Animal Health Commission has a great map that shows the zones in Texas, and as they’ve had an increasing number of domestic animals found to have infestations, some of those areas are starting to merge into a pretty large geography there close to the border. Ted Jacoby III: Is my understanding correct that if a beef cattle were to get infected within a 20-mile radius of a dairy farm, you couldn’t move the cattle out of that dairy farm either? Jamie Jonker: You would be able to move the animals, but you have to move them under permit. There’s inspection of the animals to ensure that they don’t have any infestations. Depending upon where they’re moving, there could be requirements for prevention treatment. That’s not necessarily that it happens 100% of the time. If they’re moving within the state of Texas, there might be requirements that are different than if the animals are moving, say, from Texas to elsewhere. And we certainly know that a lot of dairy animals spend part of their life in Texas and move elsewhere. We saw that starting in March of 2024 with the H5N1. Ted Jacoby III: So Jamie, is there a protocol set up for exactly how the milk from a dairy cow that would be infected with screwworm is handled, and how that herd would be managed if that were to happen, and what is that protocol? Jamie Jonker: Yeah, so if you have a dairy animal that is infested, you wanna get that animal isolated. You wanna have that wound where the larvae are cleaned out and then treated. There are a couple of additional products that are approved for lactating dairy cattle for treatment of the infestation itself, so Dectomax is the only one approved for prevention purposes. There’s a topical spray and a topical gel that are approved for an animal that has an infestation. You clean it out, you treat it with that, you isolate them and then, if you’re not doing additional treatments of animals in the herd, if the determination is you’ve got an isolated case and you don’t need to do a broader prevention process, that milk from all those other animals continues to flow. You wanna make sure that you’re not incidentally transferring flies in the cab of the milk truck because that is one way that you can move these flies quite a long distance by just accidentally trapping them in your vehicle. But unless the requirement is to do a broader prevention treatment in the herd, any animal that is not treated with an animal health product, its milk is perfectly sellable, so long as they’re continuing to meet the having no residues from other antibiotics. Ted Jacoby III: So, to be clear, milk from a cow that might be infected with screwworm, the milk itself is still absolutely fine and healthy unless You’re treating the cow with a medicine to get rid of the screwworm. Jamie Jonker: An infestation is an animal health and welfare issue. It’s not a food safety issue for meat or milk. Ted Jacoby III: Do you anticipate that we are going to have issues with screwworm in dairy cattle soon? Jamie Jonker: Soon is difficult to define. I would say that we have an elevated risk that it will occur at some point in time on a facility with dairy animals, a commercial dairy facility. And I say that because New World screwworm grows well in temperatures like we’re experiencing throughout a lot of parts of the U.S. right now. It’s very cold intolerant, and if you get three or four days at twenty degrees Fahrenheit, that kills most of the flies, so that’s great. But we are just at the end of June, so we have many months yet with temperatures that are very conducive for the flies to be active. And I think the other thing is that as we look at a growing geography in Texas of where we are finding screwworm infestations in domesticated livestock we probably don’t have enough New World screwworm sterile flies being produced today to respond to that. That is why USDA has worked with Mexico in renovating a fruit fly production facility there to produce New World screwworm sterile flies. I believe it was just announced late last week. That facility is up and running and at full production capacity probably towards the end of the year. That’s another hundred million flies to complement the hundred million that are being produced at the facility in Panama. And then there was, in April of this year, the announcement of a domestic plant being built on a military base in Edinburg, Texas. The target date for that is to be November of next year to produce three hundred million flies once it’s fully operational . You’ve heard Secretary Rollins discuss they are looking at ways to move that timeline faster. But I think when you consider we started off with a hundred million in Panama, we’re gonna be another hundred million sterile flies in Mexico by the end of the year, and then another three hundred million in Texas when that is up and running. That’s a realization that this is gonna be a multi-year process, and that it’s unlikely that it’s just gonna stay in a geography near the border. So, long way of saying, yes, I think it’s probably a matter of when it gets to a dairy facility and not if. Ted Jacoby III: Serena, do you think screwworm, if and when it starts to affect dairy cows, is going to materially affect milk production in the U.S.? Sarina Sharp: I guess it depends how widespread it is, but I generally don’t think so. I think that it’s gonna be a huge headache at the very least for an individual dairy producer who has to deal with it and for his livestock. But it’s not gonna be material in terms of how many dairies in the U.S. it’s likely to impact. And especially, if you look at where the beef cattle are and the typical temperatures in those areas versus where dairy cattle are in the United States, three days of cold is very common in a lot of dairy areas. And then thirdly, a lot of the beef cattle that have it now are in ranch country. They’re not in an operation where the cattle grower is hands-on, up close with these animals every single day. And on a dairy, that’s not the case. When you are milking cows every day, and bottle-feeding calves, and checking on your heifers, that’s a very hour-to-hour interaction with your livestock, and so it’s a lot easier to contain an infestation in that environment than it is on this vast ranch country with scrub brush in the southern plains. Ted Jacoby III: That makes a lot of sense ’cause you can go days without inspecting beef cattle, but you rarely go hours without inspecting a dairy cow. Sarina Sharp: Yeah. So, when I look at the market impact of screwworm on the dairy industry, I’m not focused on milk production at this point at all. I’m looking at its impact on beef prices and how that changes economics on the dairy farm Ted Jacoby III: How do you think it’s gonna change beef prices? Sarina Sharp: It has already changed beef prices because the United States closed the border with Mexico to live mammal imports. And so, the primary way that’s impacted us is we typically take hundreds of thousands and slightly over a million Mexican feeder cattle. So, that’s young beef livestock from Mexico into the United States, feed and finish them in the United States, and then they help increase our beef cattle supplies. That border has been shut for quite a while now, and for the first months of this screwworm infestation in Mexico, when it was not in the United States and not in northern Mexico, then there was a constant hope, “All right, they’ll get this under control, and we’ll reopen the border, and those feeder cattle imports, we’ll be able to bring them in again.” The border is shut, and it doesn’t look like it will open anytime soon, so we just have this vacuum of Mexican beef cattle. That means that the U.S. dairy industry is positioned to continue to supply beef crossbred calves to the beef cattle industry. That’s beef on dairy calves. At times when we have extra heifers, which is not right now, we’ll just place true dairy animals in feedlots. The price might incentivize us to consider that, although right now they’re so valuable as dairy animals, that’s not happening, at least not at scale. And then, it impacts the dairy cull cow price as well. So, I was talking to a producer last week who sold one full truckload of dairy cull cows at an average price of $3,500 per animal. That’s just an unheard-of price in the past, and it is really adding up to a lot for dairy producers’ bottom lines. For several days here, we were looking at $15, $16 milk and $4.30 corn, and the math wasn’t working out, but when you add a beef crossbred calf check and a dairy cull cow check into that mix, things are looking a lot better when you talk to your banker. Ted Jacoby III: So, it sounds like to me that even though from a public relations standpoint this is going to be a bit of a headache and we have to make sure we get the word out of exactly how screwworm is affecting the dairy industry and how we have protocols in place and plans to make sure that it doesn’t affect the milk supply, for the dairy farmer from a cashflow perspective, at the end of the day it’s probably a positive. Sarina Sharp: It is a positive. I do want to stress that there’s no less beef in the world because of screwworm. What we’ve changed is where those animals are, and the longer that the border stays closed, the more resources that the Mexican cattle industry is gonna pour into facilities to finish the cattle that are staying there, and then also beef packing facilities so they can just process them right there. So we are not importing Mexican feeder cattle. We are importing Mexican beef. So, that’s a positive for dairy producers who are supplying young livestock. In the long run, it’s a negative for the U.S. beef industry who would love to raise those cattle here and process them here. And every day that we don’t is a day that Mexico is investing in not sending them here and sending us the finished beef. Ted Jacoby III: That makes a lot of sense. Jamie Jonker: I think the one thing I would add is I don’t think there’s gonna be a milk disruption issue. But at an individual farm level, it could be very disruptive. So nationally, you probably won’t really notice much, but at an individual farm level, depending on what happens, it could be very disruptive. In contrast to H5N1, which was really a big issue in so many different places. This is something that is gonna be at the individual farm level. Ted Jacoby III: Do dairy farmers have insurance for events like this? Sarina Sharp: So I know that with H5N1, you were able to file for some insurance protection related to your lost milk revenue, and you also registered that as an event for your dairy RP. I imagine that if you’re not gonna lose milk production at scale, that it’s not insurable Ted Jacoby III: That makes sense. ​ Ted Jacoby III: Everybody, we will be right back after these messages. Diego Carvallo: I’m Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co.. T.C. Jacoby & Co. specializes in international dairy markets. For new customers that haven’t done business with Jacoby, I would tell them that we can provide them with many of the powders, dairy products that they consume, not only with the physical product, but we can also help them mitigate their risk. We know dairy. We know the main players. We know the main providers for the whole value chain. We are one of the strongest players in the U.S. market because we have contact all the way from the farmer moving the liquid milk all the way to the end users that buy the end products. I am Diego Carballo with T.C. Jacoby & Co., and we bring dairy to the world. Ted Jacoby III: Jamie, where are we at with avian flu? Is it affecting the dairy industry as badly this year as two years ago, and how do you expect it to play out this year? Jamie Jonker: It is not affecting the dairy sector like it was in 2024. In 2024, there were 917 dairy farms officially identified as having H5N1 on their farms, probably some more that were not officially listed. Last year, in ’25 was only 171, and so far this year, halfway through the year, only 64. So, we’re seeing a downward trend but what we are seeing here is some lingering issues with H5N1 on dairy farms this year. There have been two dairy farms in Texas, three in Utah, and the remaining fifty-nine are all in Idaho. And based upon my conversations with USDA for the farms where they have the genotyping done, these are all B3.13 strains (HPAI H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13) so far, so no new spillover events. It’s a circulating one. And they are all related to a lineage of B3.13 that are circulating in Idaho. And so, it’s still kinda hanging out there. When I look at it, it’s not gonna have the big impact on overall milk production. When I say big, I think when we looked at 2024, it’s probably about a 1% reduction in production. That’s not huge but not inconsequential. Unless there was movement of this to places where there hasn’t been virus before. And you can think about large production areas around the Midwest into the Northeast where there hasn’t been this virus before. And so, that’s the risk, is that this virus moves to places where we haven’t had it before. And that’s why I think it’s important that we do our best to see if we can eliminate this B3.13 strain entirely from the U.S. dairy cattle population because the only reason we picked up the three spillover events with the D1.1 strain is because we had the mandatory surveillance. Based upon my discussions with folks that some of those herds and veterinarians that are dealing with those herds, if you weren’t testing for it, you probably wouldn’t have known that you had an outbreak of bird flu in your cattle. Unlike this B3.13, which was just so devastating, most herds that got it, ten to twenty percent of their herd had very severe clinical symptoms . And, you could see starting in September of ’24 into January, February of ’25, what it did on milk production in California. California had over seven hundred dairy farms in those months that, that were impacted by it. Ted Jacoby III: So if I’m hearing you correctly, this strain is far milder than the strain that affected us in 2024, and as a result it’s unlikely to have a major effect on milk production. Jamie Jonker: This is the same strain as 2024 that has affected the vast majority of those dairy farms. But right now, it’s occurring In places where that strain has already probably impacted most of these dairy farms in some capacity. And so, when they’re getting it in their farms, they’re being picked up as part of the mandatory surveillance process. And they’re not getting that big outbreak in a two-week period where ten to twenty percent of the herd needs to be in a hospital. Ted Jacoby III: Is some of the reason why it’s having less of an effect because, like with human viruses over time, cows build up immunity to it and just don’t get as sick the second, third time they might get sick with the same virus? Jamie Jonker: That appears to be part of that process. In most of our farms, we’re turning over, a quarter to a third of our animals every year, so you have a new naive population coming in. And some of these farms, what they’re really experiencing are they’re just constantly bringing in new naive animals, and they get like a rolling infection. But you’re not having 10% to 20% of the herd all at once. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks, Jamie. Now let’s move on to the last subject we had: foot-and-mouth disease. Jamie, what is the status of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States today? Jamie Jonker: Hollywood likes to glamorize things and I’m happy to say it’s been nearly 100 years since we’ve had a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the U.S., and I sure hope that we don’t have one in my lifetime, it can be quite devastating. But no FMD in the U.S. since an outbreak in California in the late 1920s. And importantly, there’s a lot of work that’s being done on preparation in case of an outbreak . Back in the 2018 Farm Bill, dairy, beef and swine lobbied really hard to modernize our U.S. FMD vaccine bank. And there was a significant amount of new monies that were put into that, and that has been modernized. We have the secure food supply plans, including the secure milk supply and secure beef supply plans, and secure swine supply plans that are in place to help us deal with how we continue continuity of business if an outbreak occurs in the U.S. And ,so we’re much better planned today than we were even ten years ago. That being said, FMD is a risk. We see that it moves around a lot more than we would like it to in other areas of the world. And the example that I’m gonna give, there’s seven different serotypes of FMD, and a whole bunch of subtypes. There’s one called South African type. That is typically a Sub-Saharan African type and has been quite devastating in South Africa over these past two years. In 2023, they had an outbreak of SAT 1 Type 1 in the African horn that moved into Middle East in 2025 and through the end of 2025 into 2026, an SAT Type III actually broke out starting in Asia, moving into India and China. And although not officially listed, probably also into Russia. And so it’s moved into places where they routinely vaccinate for FMD but they don’t vaccinate for this serotype. And unfortunately, the vaccines that they use do not have cross protection for the SAT types, and so it’s been a really big issue in those areas. And it’s a demonstration of how quickly animal diseases can move these days. It’s very much on my radar and of concern to me about how quickly they move. Obviously, we have several oceans on both sides of us that help keep some things at bay. But boy, there’s a lot of flights that come into the U.S. from places where FMD is every day. And we have ships that are coming to container ports that come from those areas as well. It’s not a zero risk. I would say it’s a very low risk. But we wanna make sure we keep it on our radar that we continue to be prepared. It’s better to be prepared for something that doesn’t happen than be unprepared and have an outbreak . I have fire insurance on my house not because I want a fire to happen. I have it just in case, and I hope I never use it. Ted Jacoby III: Why do you think the U.S. has been so much more successful than, let’s say, Europe at staying FMD free? Jamie Jonker: I think part of it is that bit of geographic isolation. The vast majority of the Western Hemisphere is free of foot-and-mouth disease. There may be some in Venezuela, but their political issues over the past decade, their instability , their reporting of disease has been a bit spotty, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they still had a little bit circulating there . But everywhere else in South America, including Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay those places have all gotten rid of FMD, and they’ve done it through vaccination campaigns and culling. Essentially eliminating it from the Western Hemisphere, our risk is much lower than Europe, which has direct geographic connections to places where it’s endemic. Ted Jacoby III: That makes a lot of sense. Serena, I’ve got one last question for you. What is the thing that keeps you and your family’s farms what keeps you guys up at night in terms of a disease or an outbreak in the U.S.? Sarina Sharp: Foot-and-mouth disease would be terrible, but it doesn’t feel like that’s imminent. I think that another round of avian influenza feels much more likely to have a devastating impact on an individual dairy. It’s not something that’s keeping us up at night every night, but it is something that when you hear, “Yep, there’s 50-plus cases in Idaho,” it feels could happen right here, kind of no matter where in the US right here is. So I think that one is forefront of dairy producers’ minds. But I just don’t think that disease pressure is keeping dairy producers up at night in the way that it did in 2024 when it was a mysterious virus. We were trying to figure out how to treat it. We weren’t sure how it was spreading, and the impact on animal health was so severe. And it feels to me like how we treat the flu and, to a lesser extent, COVID today compared to how we did in 2020. I think that’s how dairy producers generally feel about disease pressure in general today. I don’t want myself or my kids to get COVID or the flu, and we sure don’t want avian influenza on any of our farms Ted Jacoby III: I’d have to agree with that sentiment. This is what I’ve heard today. I’ve heard that screwworm, we are well prepared to deal with it if it does get on a U.S. dairy, but in general, it’s not something we’re terribly worried about affecting milk production in the United States. Avian flu is something maybe we’re a little bit more worried about affecting milk production, but the strain that’s out there today is one that’s been out there before, and we seem pretty well prepared for it. And foot-and-mouth disease is not in the United States, and we’ve got a lot of protocols in place to really keep it at bay, and we’re in a pretty good place in terms of making sure that foot-and-mouth disease stays away from this country. Jamie, hey, thank you very much for joining us today. I really appreciate it. I learned a lot today, and thank you so much for your time. Jamie Jonker: Yeah. Thank you for having me. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks, guys. Thanks, Serena. Thanks, guys. Jamie Jonker: Thank you. Thank Sarah Olson: you, Serena. Jamie, thank Jamie Jonker: you. Yes, see you. Bye, guys. Ted Jacoby III: Coming up next time. Scott Briggs: Yeah, the US is really in a great position to drive global dairy markets over the next five to 10 years. Ted Jacoby III: Tune in next time when we have Scott Briggs from Bridgescape Commodities joining us, talking about milk production on the global scale and how the US is positioned to be competitive against the major global exporters moving forward

May 22, 202626 min

Is Protein a Fad, and Is Cheese Still King?

Right now, high-protein diets are hot and cheese is still the biggest user of U.S. dairy. But will it last? Listen now Listen to the episode Also available on: Amazon Music Apple Podcasts Spotify YouTube In this episode: In this episode of The Milk Check , we pull out our crystal balls and try to see into the future of U.S. dairy. Why GLP-1 may be a catalyst, not the whole protein story How health and wellness trends are reshaping dairy demand How exports could change the future of cheese demand The consensus? Find out in The Milk Check episode 100: Is Protein a Fad, and Is Cheese Still King? Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Transcript: Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] Coming up on the Milk Check. The debate is: have GLP-1s changed dairy forever? Our second debate is will cheese remain king? Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Excited for our topic today. We are going to have a debate. The debate is: have GLP-1s changed dairy forever? The demand for protein right now is clearly extremely strong. It’s really a question of whether we think this demand for protein is a fad, or we think it’s a fundamental shift in demand that’s gonna be with us for a long time. And so I’m gonna actually put Mike Brown on the spot first. Mike, has GLP-1s changed dairy forever? Mike Brown: It certainly changed me forever. And I’m a big eater dairy for a long time. I’ve had good success with GLP’s getting my weight to where it needs to be, and one thing you do discover is that you do need to really watch your protein intake. You need to make sure you’re getting adequate amounts because you will lose muscle. I think diets in general, we’re becoming less carb-focused. We’re becoming more protein-focused. So, I don’t see it going away. Does that mean we’ll have the record-high prices we have now forever? Probably not the markets will stay strong, and I think it’s a shift in consumer demand . You just need to go into any Costco or Sam’s Club, and the amount of protein beverages they offer now versus three years ago, they’ve tripled in some cases. So, it’s definitely a market of strength. And despite the high price of proteins, people still seem to be buying it. I’ll see limits when there’s sales in different stores, which tells you that demand is still extremely strong. Ted Jacoby III: Josh, I’ll ask you next. Are we changing demand forever, or is this a fad? Josh White: I don’t know that GLP-1s are necessarily what’s changing demand forever, but they definitely are a catalyst and a disruptor right now. We were listening to a HighGround Monthly Update earlier today. I’ll echo something that was said during that update: A health and wellness trend [00:02:00] is absolutely happening, is global. They noted and cited in that, that over the last two years, gym memberships have been up in the U.S. If you go to other parts of the world that we export products to that GLP-1s haven’t yet reached, we’re seeing incredible health and wellness movements and protein consumption uptake. So, what I think the GLP-1 aspect of it is doing is that it served as a bit of a catalyst and ignited this market and forced us all to recognize this shift that we’re seeing from just calories taken in to quality of calories taken in, and that is driving a lot of incremental protein demand that the dairy space is a benefactor of to date. So, I don’t know if I really answered it, Ted. I think GLP-1 is a catalyst in forcing us to recognize a bigger trend that we’re seeing, not only in the U.S., but globally. Jacob Menge: I do think it’s pretty important to talk about the time horizon that we’re discussing because there’s a really big difference in both availability and dietary preference of protein sources globally, right? Like India, Sub-Saharan Africa, even China up until very recently was very plant protein-based. And so, even though protein consumption as a whole has certainly been growing where you are looking at depends on how much that’s actually impacting animal proteins. And so, I think that time horizon is important, right? Because we know where population growth is occurring worldwide. Population growth worldwide is actually in areas that are plant protein consumers not animal protein consumers . And you’re getting some animal protein consumers actually trending lower on population, right? You look at the population outlook for a lot of Europe. Korea was in the middle. I think they’re, like, 50/50, if I recall, on plant versus animal proteins. But I think that time horizon is a pretty important piece of the discussion. Ted Jacoby III: So Jake, I’ll ask you the [00:04:00] question. So, five years from now, are we gonna be looking back on 2025 and 2026 and talk about the whey protein fad, or do we think that we will have seen a fundamental shift in where people have invested their investment dollars in terms of what kind of dairy production facilities, processing facilities have been built in the U.S. and around the world? Jacob Menge: Five years is way too short of a timeline to see what I would call a freight train changing its course. And so, I think that’s pretty clear. We know what’s gonna be happening with U.S. exports, right? We are just set up to be the export powerhouse in the short term, and I would call five years short term for trends like this. Even though this has happened very fast, knowing again what is happening with the U.S. export picture, I don’t think there’s any way we see a material change in what’s happening in the protein space in a five-year period. Mike Brown: I think there’s one point of difference in milk proteins versus whey proteins. I think we see, because of cost difference, I think, more interest in finding, how can I use milk proteins in a product versus whey? I noticed this weekend, again, looking at a sports beverage that 30 gram protein, number one ingredient’s milk, and it’s not a fairlife(R) product. It’s an amalgamated product. Jacob Menge: Couldn’t agree more. I was certainly one level higher in just saying any dairy protein or animal protein for that matter. But yeah, when you drill down, do I think there could be shifts within that makeup? Absolutely. Mike Brown: The other thing is with whey proteins is that you gotta sell the cheese or you gotta sell the casein. And as we look at that spread in price, what’s that value of that whey protein worth versus what you get for the remaining part of the product? As we know, right now, Class IV, which is even dry milk powders and fat are worth way, way more than milk for cheese, even when you adjust for the higher protein revenues. We have a $5 spread right now between Class III and Class IV. And that always takes care of itself, but exactly how it will, I think we all know there’s interest in do I add casein-producing capacity so I [00:06:00] can get to my whey proteins rather than just cheese? If I make those caseins, where’s the market for those products? Where am I gonna be able to use them? So I think there’s lots of questions that we don’t know yet. ‘Cause if I’m a processor, one very high-value product, whether if it’s a half a pound or three-quarter of a pound yield per 100 pounds of milk, it’s not gonna drive all your decisions. It’s gonna be a factor. Ted Jacoby III: Gus, I’m gonna ask you the question: Has GLP-1 changed dairy forever? Or do you think it’s a trend? Gus Jacoby: I’m of the impression that we are certainly following the trends within Western culture to evaluate more and more the health benefits of eating better nutrition. And certainly, as time moves on, the protein component in your meal is going to be more and more important. So, I’m not going to take away from that. I think that will continue to evolve, but I also think that as we continue to evolve in that setting, other pieces of that nutrition will come to light and become the fad for a period of time. At the moment, protein is hot, and I don’t think we can get away from that. For me, just looking at U.S. milk production and how much of that milk production goes into cheese ,the ever-increasing demand in cheese, I don’t see that going away either. I think that’s an entrenched part of our society, and I think cheese is a pretty important part of the daily food consumption here in our culture as well. I think there’s a place for both of them, and it’s hard for me to distinguish one from the other as being where we go as an industry. Mike Brown: One thing we may see is more of these protein-based dairy beverages that aren’t Class I milk take more and more of that consumer stomach. And so, we’re gonna see more of those UF-based products, which aren’t necessarily what we think of traditionally as fluid milk. And that’s where a lot of the growth has been: in the high-protein milks. Is that where the substitution will take place as much as in some other ways? Gus Jacoby: I don’t think there’s any doubt, Mike, but I would also argue that we’re probably going to eat into that Class I consumption a bit by more of this dairy protein shake, which tends to be in the [00:08:00] Class II area. Mike Brown: Yeah, that’s, and that’s what I, that’s what I meant. Yeah. Okay. If you’re gonna drink it as a Class II product, it all gets down to how regulation basically makes those products more competitive- Yeah … because of the regulated minimum price. Gus Jacoby: That would be a very Interesting discussion probably for another day relative to- what we wanna cover in our debate today. Mike Brown: Yeah. It’s a bit of a nerd fest, But we look at consumption trends, it isn’t hurting the high-protein products because they are priced differently. Gus Jacoby: Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Diego, what are your thoughts? This demand for protein: fad or a long-term trend? Diego Carvallo: I think the trend is clear, and it still has a lot of room to grow. So, I think in a five-year period, it’s very easy to say that they’re gonna continue to grow. Ted Jacoby III: You see the international space a lot more clearly than most of the rest of us. What’s happening here in the U.S., is it happening internationally as well? Diego Carvallo: Yes, and that’s why I said that there’s gonna be growth ’cause I still see areas of Latin America where that trend is just getting started . You still do not see any of the products that you’re seeing in the U.S. at the supermarket showcasing and showing marketing that much the protein content on the end product. So I think that growth is still getting started. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, last but not least, fad, long-term trend? Joe Maixner: I think that the consumer shift is a long-term trend. I don’t know if necessarily the GLP-1 is the long-term trend because technology will continue to advance, and there’ll be something that comes out at some point that makes this old news. I think that the health and wellness trend is certainly here for the foreseeable future. estimating 40 million people within the next five years are going to be on GLP-1s. That’s a big number. The one thing we’ve seen the effect on selfishly for my market is the amount of cream and fat that it’s spun off because of all the demand for the protein. We did not expect to have this fundamental shift in the fat market domestically this quickly. Unless the farmers decide that they’re gonna change how they feed their cows and produce less fat, we’re gonna see that for a while too, and we’re gonna be surplus fat. And that [00:10:00] product is also affected by this GLP-1 because people tend to eat less sweets and snacks and fat-heavy products, so consumption’s been down on that side as well. Ted Jacoby III: It’s gonna be interesting. And I’ll just give my two cents. I do think the demand for protein is a long-term trend. I think it’s a trend both within certain segments of the population and I think it’s a trend in that I think, just comparing my generation and how I ate and drank in my 20s compared to how my children eat and drink in their 20s, they sure do live a healthier life than I did when I was that age. I think I’m speaking for a good portion of that generation and not just my kids. So, we’ll see. It sounds to me that the consensus is pretty clear on this one. Whether it’s GLP-1s or not, this protein trend is a long-term trend, and it is fundamentally changing the dairy industry. And we’re all curious to see how it’ll play out. All right, now I’m gonna switch to our second debate. This debate is will cheese remain king? So in my lifetime, milk production, when I was born, milk production was roughly 20% of milk was made into cheese. Today, it’s 55%. It is very clear that the driver in dairy consumption in the United States is a per capita increase in cheese that is part of a long-term trend. My question for everybody today is: Have we started to reach the point where that trend is starting to plateau? Is cheese still king? Will it continue to be the driver of increases in per capita dairy consumption, or have we reached a point where we’re not going to see cheese driving the bus anymore? It’s 55% of milk production goes into cheese today. Is it gonna be 65% in 10 years, or is it still gonna be in the 50s? Gus, I’m gonna throw you out there first. What are your thoughts? Gus Jacoby: I think it’s hard to say that it isn’t still king considering the large amount of milk in U.S. milk production that goes into cheese. And even with respect to the protein segment that we just talked about, you can’t make whey [00:12:00] without making cheese, so you’re not gonna get whey protein without cheese. I don’t think the American consumer is going to lose their appetite for cheese anytime soon. I understand that certainly with the GLP-1s we’re gonna eat a bit healthier. But I find it hard to believe that while maybe the growth might become less than it has been over the last number of years I do believe that cheese is gonna be with us as the majority taker of milk at least for the foreseeable future. Ted Jacoby III: Do you think the trend is strong enough that 15 years from now 65% or 70% of all milk goes into cheese? Or do you think maybe we’re gonna plateau right around here at 55%? Gus Jacoby: I think it still has room to go a little bit higher. I think there’s a possibility of plateauing, though maybe at some point north of 60. But at the end of the day I just don’t see how it can be removed from the diet. If people wanna start playing with what type of cheeses are in their diet for better health benefits, I guess that may happen. Ted Jacoby III: All right. Gus Jacoby: Not in the near term. Ted Jacoby III: Jake, what are your thoughts? Jacob Menge: I would imagine that the percent of milk that is turned into cheese goes lower. That’s my gut feel. We’re gonna be export-dominated. We maybe can capture some markets that we haven’t historically gotten into before with more shelf-stable products. We’re just gonna have to export a lot of product. And cheese is exportable obviously, but it just feels, with the new markets we’re gonna be moving into, the amount of product as a percent that we’re gonna be exporting, dietary shifts, it all points to me that, as a percent, it’s hard for me to make the case that cheese goes higher. And so by default , I’ll argue it goes lower. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, what are your thoughts? Joe Maixner: I think that what happens with cheese moving forward depends on how well the dairy industry markets cheese moving forward. If we do a better job of [00:14:00] marketing the protein benefits, the fact that it’s the cheapest protein per gram and playing into those strengths that would help keep it as king and increase consumption. If we continue to sit on our laurels and not really do any additional marketing, I think that we have a chance to lose capacity. Jacob Menge: So what’s your gut? Do we do a good job marketing it or not? Joe Maixner: Okay. I don’t think we do. But we could. The potential is there. We just, we’re not doing it. Ted Jacoby III: I think dairy has struggled for a long time just to market itself as how healthy it is, and some of that I think is because we sit in a position of strength in the marketplace, and so everybody’s always coming after dairy to say they’re better than dairy and dairy’s got issues. So all the plant guys can grow their plant-based products. All of those food products that don’t come from dairy tend to attack dairy in order to grow their own market share. And I think that’s why dairy struggles. I think your point about how the value of a gram of protein in cheese is a lot less than the same cost of that protein, let’s say, in whey powder or in other things. I’m curious to see how that plays out, because I think it’s a really good point. Mike Brown: I’d make a point on the competition. Where we’ve seen shrinkage in the refrigerator dairy case is the non-dairy beverages. They are losing market share. Milks are doing better, particularly the protein milks, are doing so much better. I think there’s still potential, so we can’t assume that. I also think there’s two questions on cheese to me: market share and total market. I think total market still has a little room to grow. I think market share will not grow, maybe decline modestly, and that’s more because of the Class II demand for proteins now with yogurt, Greek yogurts, and cottage cheese, and all the Class II-based liquid beverages. So, it’s more of an issue perhaps of market share, and that takes time to build capacity. We all know that. But the demand is there. Cheese is gonna continue. We [00:16:00] look at the supermarket sales data, it’s still growing modestly, as is butter, and that’s just total sales. I think the other factor we gotta think about here is population growth because our growth’s gonna be much slower. With current immigration policies, I don’t see a quick turnaround in growth of population like we’ve experienced in the past. A lot of that from folks who are big users of dairy in their diet. In the benefit of cheese, as we get older, we drink less, and we eat more milk proteins, and that’s part of our growth, of course, with cheese. The other one is food service. It’s huge, particularly the mozzarella side of the business, and it’s looking pretty tepid right now. That tends to go with health of the economy. I expect it’ll rebound again when people have more money to spend. I think that’s part of it, too. So, cheese is gonna remain strong. Jake made a very good point, though, as did Joe. It’s kinda sold itself, and we’ve had no trouble selling it. We are now the export market, kinda like we did with non-fat dry milk, what, 20 years ago, Josh? We’re, and we’re dependent on that export market. So, it makes us more vulnerable to world price, term, but it also means it’s a chance to grow if our industry adapts to meet those demands. And as we see, everything from powders to butter to cheese, the industry is working on that. But it’s a slow process, ’cause it’s always been that market when we have a little extra it was an opportunistic market, now it’s becoming part of sales strategy, and that’s a very different way to look at your business. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. It means It’s really matured. Mike Brown: Yes, a lot. Ted Jacoby III: Diego, what are your thoughts? I know you’re not the cheese guy, you’re more of the ingredient guy, but internationally, cheese is definitely growing. Cheese gonna remain king? Or is the other protein sources gonna take over and pull milk away from cheese? Diego Carvallo: So I have contradicting thoughts here. I think that everybody here agrees that the demand for WPCs and WPIs is gonna continue growing, and that’s definitely been making cheese plants very profitable . But at the same time, I’m seeing that many cheese plants being built in the past few years that I think that [00:18:00] the competition is gonna get fierce in that aspect. I would say in the coming years, I see more probabilities of people who build, and companies who build dryers, for example, for non-fat and skim , to have an advantage and definitely a good incentive. Ted Jacoby III: So my two cents is this: I think we are underestimating how much the export demand for cheese is gonna keep driving it. There’s a lot of proof that cheese consumption in developing countries tends to follow a generation or two after milk powder consumption. It starts with infant formula, then tends to stay in the diet as they get older, and eventually manifests itself in cheese, mostly as an ingredient in something like pizzas or burgers, et cetera. And so, I do think cheese demand for cheese out of the U.S. will continue to grow. I do think the curve will flatten a little bit. I also think that you are going to get a continued pressure to build more cheese plants just so you have access to the whey protein, because I think the whey protein is gonna maintain its value. But I’m a little bit like Diego, ’cause on the other side, one of my thoughts is I hear a lot of conversations lately about instead of making cheese, what if we make micellar casein and we pull the native whey, and then we dry the native whey separately? So, I can also see technology continuing to evolve where maybe you don’t actually need to make cheese in order to have access to the whey proteins, and I think we have to keep our eye on that. But I do think cheese is the dominant use for milk in the United States. I don’t see that changing anytime soon, but I do think the trend is probably gonna start to slow down a bit. Josh? What are your thoughts? Josh White: I’m gonna step back a bit and start with one belief, and that belief is that United States dairy economies of scale have now reached a point where we’re gonna grow in our market share for the global dairy consumption. We’re gonna continue to grow in our participation in that business, and we will capture more market share. And if you believe that, at its core, cheese is maybe one of the… If not, it’s the most calorie-dense product that we have. [00:20:00] And there’s an argument that it goes into products as both ingredients and as the primary food service or retail product, which accesses a lot of different demand potential. If you think about the cheese factory, maybe not how they’re run today, but if you think about it, I’ve made the mistake multiple times of saying that we’re gonna start balancing to cheese, and there’s been a big argument about that, internally. And I can understand why there’s an argument on the surface level. But in the bigger picture, it’s what may be the most versatile way to process milk and balance out whether we have extra protein, extra fat, or we’re short of either of those product or whatnot. You can spin off more cream. You can bring in more solids. You really optimize that recipe, and I feel like that makes it foundational. And if it’s foundational, you’re gonna continue to see investment in these large cheese plants. If whey protein’s hot, great, whey protein benefits, and cream prices are poor it’s offsetting . If cheese demand globally is growing or fat demand’s growing, great we’ll maneuver our recipe a bit to take advantage of that. It feels very… Optimized maybe is not the right word. Someone help me with a word for it. But it feels like it’s a natural hedge, and it just seems if we’re gonna continue to grow in the commodity foundation of dairy products and then optimize all the ingredients and all the special opportunities around it, the cheese processing facility is maybe going to be the best to build around. And so with that in mind, I don’t know if that necessarily takes a greater market share, but it’s gonna be the foundation for our growing volume of milk solids out of the U.S. over the next several years. Ted Jacoby III: Josh it’s funny, you mentioned, are we gonna start balancing into cheese versus balancing into a powder plant? And my initial reaction when you first mentioned it a year or so ago was to say, “A cheese plant is just way too expensive.” It’s two, three times the cost to build a cheese plant as it is to build a plant that [00:22:00] dries non-fat. But the more I thought about it, the more I started to realize this: Already today we’ve seen a fundamental shift, and it will continue. I think cheese will always get enough milk to run the plant, but the competition for that marginal next pound of milk that could go to any of those plants, I think the competition for that last pound of milk has been ratcheted up a notch or two, and I don’t think cheese is gonna win that battle at all costs, like it historically has. And so I think there are times when your UF milk plants, when your ESL plants, and even when your non-fat butter plants are gonna win that competition from time to time. And so, the balancing function for a milk supply is gonna start getting spread over the course of multiple plants rather than the way we’ve been over the last 50 years, where everything was balanced in and out of a milk drying plant. All right. So have we decided? Have we come to a conclusion? Is cheese king? Let’s just go around. Is cheese gonna stay king? Mike, is cheese gonna stay king? Mike Brown: Cheese will stay king, but the strength of its kingdom will be a little weaker, ’cause it’s gonna have some strong competition from other proteins. Ted Jacoby III: Perfect. Jake? Jacob Menge: Couldn’t have said it better. Agree completely. Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Gus? Gus Jacoby: I would agree with how Mike said it. Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: Awesome. Joe? Joe Maixner: Yeah. No, no argument here. Ted Jacoby III: Diego? Diego Carvallo: I’ll have to say no. It’s because of the high competition and the amount of plants that are being built right now. Joe Maixner: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: So are you saying you agree or disagree? Diego Carvallo: I disagree. Mike Brown: It’s the degree that cheese is ahead; it’s gonna take a lot of time for that to shift. Ted Jacoby III: A little bit like the Roman Empire in the year 200 AD, it’s still got 250 years to go, but it’s no longer gonna be the powerhouse it was 50 years previous. Josh, what do you think? Josh White: Yeah cheese is the king, and we’re gonna build a bigger kingdom around it. Ted Jacoby III: All right. And I agree with the general consensus that the cheese stays king, but the trend of an ever-increasing percentage of the supply is starting to slow down a bit. All right, everybody. Hey, this was a great [00:24:00] conversation. Thanks for joining us today. To all of our very valued listeners, we thank you for taking the time to listen to us. And if anybody ever has any questions about some of the topics we talk about, don’t ever be afraid to reach out and contact T.C. Jacoby & Company. We’re always happy to help. Take care, everybody.

May 15, 202621 min

Volatilidad, leche y mercados globales

En este episodio de The Milk Check en Español, Diego, Yara y Miguel analizan uno de los mercados lácteos más inciertos de los últimos años. El equipo conversa sobre la limitada disponibilidad de leche en algunas regiones de Estados Unidos, la fuerte demanda de leche ultrafiltrada, el sólido mercado de exportación de quesos y por qué el mercado de leche descremada en polvo sigue desconectado de los fundamentos tradicionales. También hablan sobre el incremento en los costos de flete, la creciente necesidad de SMP en México, el cambio en el comportamiento de compra de los clientes al construir inventarios de seguridad y cómo las tensiones geopolíticas, negociaciones comerciales y la volatilidad global están impactando los mercados lácteos alrededor del mundo. Desde NFDM y quesos hasta fletes, futuros y comercio internacional, este episodio cubre los factores más importantes que están definiendo el mercado lácteo actual. ¿Tienes preguntas? Nos encantaría escucharlas. Envíalas abajo y podríamos responderlas en el pódcast. Pregúntale a The Milk Check Diego Carvallo: Buenas tardes a todos nuestros queridos clientes y, proveedores. Los saludamos desde la ciudad de San Luis, donde estamos Miguel, yo, y Yara esta semana reuniéndonos con el equipo para reuniones de estrategia y análisis de mercado. Y bueno, bienvenidos al pódcast de esta semana. Estamos a mediados del mes de mayo con muchísima incertidumbre, muchísimas, eh, comentarios y preguntas sobre el mercado. Yara Morales: Sí, saludos a todos. Miguel Aragón: Así es, sí nos estamos reuniendo aquí en nuestra reunión trimestral, viendo, tratando de, ver la bola de cristal, pero no, no, no, no, está, está- no aparece, no aparece. Yara Morales: Sí, yo creo que las mismas preguntas que nosotros tenemos las tienen todos los clientes y los proveedores también. La verdad, es una incertidumbre todo lo que está pasando con el mercado. Es un año de verdad muy a-atípico, muy diferente a todos los años. O sea, ya, ya muchos clientes hasta nos dicen: «Pues ya no me sirven las referencias que tenemos de todos los estadísticas que teníamos anteriormente». La verdad, ya no, no. Ha sido un año muy difícil para todos. Así es. Diego Carvallo: Si quieren, podemos comenzar hablando un poquito de, de la parte de fluidos y después pasar a, a los productos. Eh, así entendemos un poquito cómo, cómo se sienten los fundamentos. Em, bueno, hemos tenido varias reuniones con el equipo de fluidos y, eh, a pesar de que el número de producción de, de leche de Estados Unidos sigue estando bastante bien, eh, seguimos teniendo un crecimiento bastante sano en la producción de leche, em, estamos viendo, eh, que para el medio del spring flush, que estamos actualmente, no pareciera haber sobrantes de leche, eh, a descuentos tan significativos como lo que había en los años anteriores. Y, eh, eh, la verdad es que ha creado algo de, eh, dudas, algo de preocupación, sobre todo para el equipo de fluidos, porque en estos momentos usualmente estamos viendo la, las cargas de leche descontadas a, a unos descuentos muy importantes y este año no ha sido el caso. Entonces, eh, hay mucha discusión y mucha, eh, como conversaciones sobre la demanda, sobre todo la demanda de lo que son, eh, las cargas ultrafiltradas, que está muy, muy fuerte esa demanda y pareciera que las plantas todavía tienen más capacidad para absorber leche. Em, por el otro lado, la parte de la crema sí está bastante larga, hay bastante producto disponible, pero lo que es la ultrafiltrada y la leche líquida, pareciera que con toda la capacidad nueva que agregamos este año, em… Hay suficiente planta para absorber ese crecimiento. Miguel Aragón: Así es, así es. Eh, un comentario importante que nos hacían los-nuestros compañeros es el de que en estos tiempos las– usualmente las cargas se compran o se mueven a descuento y este año no, se están moviendo a la par, lo cual está causando una incertidumbre bastante alta en el mercado. Diego Carvallo: Si, si ese es el caso ahora en el pleno flush, pues el mercado debería sentirse muy ajustado una vez salgamos del flush. Exacto. Y entremos en periodos de baja producción. Miguel Aragón: Exactamente. Eso lo, lo estamos empezando a ver en, en, en el mercado de futuros, eh, por lo pronto en el lado de lo queso. No sabemos qué tanto se ajuste, pero nos da algo de, de, de pausa ahí de- Sí. Yara Morales: Porque si siguen, este, mandando la leche para la clase uno, que es para toda la leche fortificada, para lo que es el, el, el yogur griego y, y lo que es el cottage, pues la verdad es que mucha leche se va a ir para allá. Eh, va a estar todavía muy escasa. Clase uno y clase tres. Diego Carvallo: Clase tres. Mhm. Exactamente. Clase uno y clase tres. Es importante aclarar también que e-e-ese panorama que estábamos describiendo es sobre todo lo que es, eh, al este de las montañas, de los Rockies. Todo lo que es California y la costa oeste, sí tengo entendido que hay bastante leche. Hay bastante leche. Que la leche sigue bien larga. Sí, así es. De hecho, uno, ayer coment– eh, estaba en plática con un-uno de nuestros proveedores y nos decían que tienen suficiente leche para las plantas de queso, en, por lo menos en California. Eh, y lo que comentabas, Diego, definitivamente esto se está viendo para el lado este y para el, el, de hecho, plantas en el centro del suroes– en el sureste. Sí, sí. El caso de la costa este ha estado muy ajustado de hace muchos años. Bueno, este año, eh, ese nivel, ese tightness, esa falta de leche, se ve aún más, eh, pronunciada. Em, bueno, con eso podemos entonces hacer como un, un cambio y empezar a hablar un poquito más de los, de los subproductos. Eh, Miguel, ¿quieres hablar un poquito de la parte de quesos antes de entrar en, en los polvos? Sí, sí. De hecho, ah, es, el– aunque el mercado doméstico sigue teniendo suficiente producto para la demanda que tenemos, el mercado de exportación es completamente otro tema. Eh, más que u– esta semana estamos viendo algo de movimiento en los mercados de Asia y, este, y Oceanía, con la, una demanda que se está incrementando. Miguel Aragón: Ojo, cuando eso es, esos mercados se llevan bastante producto. Habían estado algo dormidos, eh, las últimas Seis semanas, ocho semanas. Pero estamos viendo que ahora al parecer la están ya buscando producto otra vez. Eso tal vez nos va a poner algo de, de restricciones de producto para México, Centroamérica, Suramérica, porque al parecer lo pagan mejor, eh- Estados Unidos es el país más competitivo en este momento para lo que son quesos, ¿no? Sigue siendo el más competitivo. Así es, así es. Aunque hay algo de, de sobre todo mozzarella, de, de, de– hubo algo de producción en Europa, pero no, seguimos siendo los más competitivos, Diego Carvallo: sobre todo en los cheddar. Ya, ya, ya. Okey, interesante. ¿Y si están viendo, eh, en lo que va de año un aumento en todo lo que son exportaciones a esas regiones? Sí, todo, Miguel Aragón: sí, los, los mercados a los que hemos exportado siguen creciendo, sigue creciendo la demanda. Eh, aún no podemos ver, eh, cómo, se desparrama la demanda o cómo, cómo se– cuándo es más demanda y menos demanda, porque ha sig– ha seguido creciendo constantemente. ¿Y Diego Carvallo: cuál es, eh, tu outlook para el resto del año? ¿Estás– tú sientes que el mercado ha conseguido un soporte bastante claro y que la demanda puede mantener los precios actuales o, o sientes más bien que en algún momento podemos volver a caer? No, la, creo que Miguel Aragón: estamos en un, en un, tenemos un piso. Ya. Y aunque hemos creído que vamos a estar en un rango, al contrario, creemos que tal vez, eh, el mercado empiece a tratar de, de, de, de subir un poco, de apuntar para arriba- De romper esa resistencia. De romper esa resistencia hacia arriba. Pero, ah, todo depende cómo, cómo siga la demanda doméstica, porque eso es lo que nos va, nos va a marcar Diego Carvallo: la pauta. ¿Y el tema de la guerra en Irán está afectando en algo la demanda de los clientes de ustedes en el sureste asiático? Miguel Aragón: Definitivamente, definitivamente. De hecho, tuvimos algo de cargas nosotros que, que anduvieron dando vueltas. Hasta en la India teníamos cargas que, que iban a, a Arabia Saudita, eh, y nos, nos afecta a nosotros, pero está afectando a todos los productores también. Eh, y es un mercado por varias cosas. U-una, porque no podemos entrar, pero otra, la más importante, es porque las aseguradoras no nos están asegurando las cargas que van para ese mercado. Nadie las asegura y si no las aseguran El mercado claro no puede, no puede tomarlo, no puede tomar ese producto Es demasiado riesgo. Ya, Diego Carvallo: ya, ya. Miguel Aragón: Imagínate Yara Morales: el transporte, cómo se está incrementando también Diego Carvallo: con todo eso. Eso es lo siguiente, eso es lo siguiente. Es un tema que vamos a hablar también, que está afectando sobre todo a los productos más económicos, porque representan un porcentaje más alto del, del costo del producto. Sé que ahorita todo el mundo quiere hablar mucho de nonfat, así que si quieren pasamos un poquito a hablar ese tema- Nos dedicamos al nonfat. Que es el más complicado en este momento. Eh, mira, en pocas palabras, yo diría, en este momento estamos viendo un mercado que está de cierta manera desconectado entre lo que es lo, lo que estamos viendo en los fundamentos con lo que estamos viendo en la realidad del mercado físico. Los fundamentos, eh, apuntan y todos los reportes del USDA apuntan a que hay un crecimiento en la producción de nonfat, hay un crecimiento en la producción de SMP y hay inventarios relativamente sanos. Sin embargo, lo que estamos viendo en el mercado spot, en el mercado actual, es algo bastante distinto. Y puede ser por algunos factores como los de los recalls que tuvimos, eh, ¿cómo se dice un recall en español? La- Reclamos. Un reclamo de producción que tuvimos durante los últimos meses que ajustaron el mercado, pero la realidad es que el mercado spot, el mercado físico actualmente sigue estando sumamente ajustado. Hay muy poco producto, la mayoría de las plantas siguen completamente sobrevendidas. Eh, los traders y revendedores tienen muy poco inventario en mano. Y también vemos ese mismo patrón desde el punto de vista de los clientes. La mayoría de los clientes siguen todavía bastante cortos de producto y necesitan may-mayor, mayor volumen para saciar sus inventarios de seguridad y su producción. Entonces, eh, yo diría, en el corto plazo todavía vemos un mercado bastante bien sostenido, pero creemos que una vez pase el spring flush, después de estos dos próximos dos meses, deberíamos ver una mejor correlación entre lo que es el mercado físico o el CME Cash y el mercado de futuros. Y creemos que principalmente el CME Cash debería hacer gran parte de ese trabajo para llegar a un nivel más cercano a donde están los futuros. Es decir, creemos que debería haber cierta, eh, corrección y consolidación en un nivel posiblemente cercano a, a los cuatro mil quinientos, cuatro mil seiscientos, para de ahí poder buscar, eh, opciones de moverse para más arriba o mantenerse firme el resto del año. Sí somos, eh, creyentes de que el resto del año el polo va a seguir bastante ajustado, pero no creemos que nos podamos mantener en los precios que estamos actualmente, que son dos dólares treinta por libra, que es un precio en el que ya empezamos a ver que la demanda se frena un poco Okey. Em, todo lo que son MPC, eh, MPC setenta y MPC ochenta han seguido mucho ese patrón en el que el mercado está muy ajustado, no hay suficiente producto y hay mucha demanda que ha venido de sports nutrition, de otras aplicaciones a buscar, eh, sustitutos en el mercado del MPC. Em, Yarita, cuéntanos un poquito cómo has visto tú la demanda, cómo has visto a tus clientes en México, eh, ¿cuál es la expectativa de mercado desde el punto de vista del cliente mexicano? Yara Morales: Bueno, la, la verdad es que con toda la escasez que hubo en los primeros meses y que no podíamos surtirles la leche, porque todos los proveedores nos agarraron sin inventario y a México lo agarraron sin inventario. Afortunadamente, ya a partir de marzo, abril, ya empezaron a recibir producto. Entonces, ahorita los clientes en México tengo entendido que ya tienen un poquito más de inventario. Aparte, pues están cerrando contratos, eh, se está comprando SMP de, de Europa, los que tienen cupo y el producto va a empezar a llegar ya en mayo y son precios más competitivos. Los precios tan altos, los, eh, clientes finales, pues obviamente tienen una resistencia ya a pagar estos precios tan altos y empezaron a utilizar la leche fresca, que había bastante, ¿verdad? Este, podían encontrar hasta de cuatro pesos por litro. Ahorita ya no hay, se está escaseando. Todo el norte de México, ya la leche fresca está escaseando demasiado. Ahorita hay un poco más en el centro, que es donde también hay bastante producción de leche fresca, pero va a llegar el momento, como ya a finales de junio, julio, que empieza a escasear la leche fresca. Entonces, definitivamente va a haber una necesidad de leche descremada. Aparte de las formulaciones, pues ya las tienen con la leche descremada. Y la verdad es que todavía sigue habiendo, este, demanda. Ya no igual como en un principio que estaba todo mundo desesperado tratando de conseguir y recibir algo, pero de cualquier manera sigue la demanda, sigue todavía los clientes tratando de conseguir producto. Diego Carvallo: Y es difícil que no vengan a comprar a Estados Unidos. Por eso, por eso yo soy de la creencia que el mercado se va a mantener bastante firme por el resto del año, porque las importaciones de Europa sabemos que va a ser un volumen limitado, menos de diez mil toneladas, posiblemente para todo el año. Eh, si hay poca leche bronca en México, no van a tener otra opción que o, o consumir menos o, o venir a comprar a Estados Unidos, en pocas palabras. Entonces, eh, sí, yo creo que eso debería dar soporte. Debería marcar al menos un piso en los precios de, del nonfat. Quería Miguel Aragón: a-adherir un poco una reseña. En el– ahora que estuvimos en Chicago atendiendo el ADPI, estuvimos juntas con algunos, ah, productores de, de, de comida aquí en Estados Unidos y nos comentaban algo que tal, tal vez quisiera ver ustedes qué opinan. Eh, muchos Yo era de la creencia que nada más en México compraban al día, por decirlo así, y, y no había contratos largos. Resulta que en Estados Unidos era la misma situación y con varias de las empresas que nos juntamos nos dijeron: es que ahora estamos tratando de decidir si contratamos toda la segunda mitad del año, eh, a estos precios o nos esperamos. Es la gran cuestión ahí con las empresas que estuvimos platicando dentro de Estados Unidos. Y eso era nonfat Diego Carvallo: también o queso también. Nonfat. Ajá. Principalmente. Nosotros hemos visto exactamente ese mismo patrón. Los clientes en Estados Unidos tenían inventario al día, tenían una carga de, que tenían que utilizar esta semana y a la semana siguiente les llegaba otra carga y no tenían inventario. Ahora la tendencia es comenzar a construir inventario de seguridad, proteger para al menos dos o tres meses para protegerse de que una carga esté demorada o que no haya producto. Así es, exactamente. Miguel Aragón: Creo que Diego Carvallo: es una reseña muy Miguel Aragón: interesante Diego Carvallo: que, no la había Miguel Aragón: visto yo Diego Carvallo: y se ve ahora. Y eso resulta en demanda adicional, porque eso a la final, cuando todos los clientes de Estados Unidos, muchos, tratan de crear inventario de seguridad a la misma vez, cuando el mercado está muy ajustado, crea un crecimiento en la demanda que no es artif– no es orgánico, pero sí crea una subida en la Miguel Aragón: demanda. Así es. Y creo que alarga esta, esta cuestión que estamos viendo ahora. Está ajustado. Sí, Yara Morales: y lo hemos estado viendo con los clientes de México, los queseros, los que tienen plantas de queso, que han querido cuando menos tener la seguridad de que van a tener el producto, por eso pagan los precios. Entonces, han estado comprando con precios hasta meses adelantados. Y es, y era algo que no se veía. ¿Por qué? Pues porque estamos tan cerca que pueden llevarse el producto, pues en una semana o dos semanas y ya tienen la leche. Pero ahorita con esta escasez, pues la verdad que prefieren cerrar contratos largos, aunque sean meses más adelantados. Diego Carvallo: Correcto, correcto. Un punto también importante mencionar es el costo, cómo está afectando el mercado los altos costos de combustible y de flete, sobre todo para productos económicos. Hace poco estuvimos cotizando algunas cargas de permeato a México y a diferentes partes de Asia, y el costo del flete ha subido muchísimo. Eh, es algo que también está afectando a muchos clientes y viene dado a raíz del conflicto en Asia. Eh, ¿cómo está afectando eso a, a su, a la demanda de queso? Miguel Aragón: Definitivamente nos está afectando porque en, en, como saben, manejamos, eh, tres líneas de queso nosotros. Manejamos el queso de primera, eh, que tal vez es el que no, no refleja tanto, eh, el, el incremento en flete, pero lo refleja, pero lo puede absorber un poco más. Pero en el producto, ah, grado B que decimos nosotros, que se supone que era un poco más barato, eh, sí le afecta porque es un producto más barato. Y ahora el producto, eh, que manejamos para reproceso, que es el producto barato, es el producto para extender la proteína en el queso, eh, para hacer más queso, sobre todo queso análogo, ahí sí se sintió fuerte el i-el impacto del flete, porque a veces son– o sea, ha subido cuatro o cinco centavos por libra de diferentes lugares. Depende de, depende de la geografía de Estados Unidos, de donde estemos mandando el queso y es donde más nos ha afectado. Totalmente. En el Diego Carvallo: producto más barato. Igual que- Y, y no solo es en fletes marítimos, sino en fletes terrestres. La parte del transporte en camión en Estados Unidos ha subido mucho. Nosotros solíamos pagar cuatro o cinco centavos para mover una carga de California a El Paso. Hoy en día ese precio está cercano a los seis, o sea, ha subido un cerca de un 20 % En, en la– cuando movemos Miguel Aragón: produ– movemos queso de, de, de Washington a, a El Paso, estábamos pagando trece centavos la libra. Hoy día diecisiete centavos, a veces dieciocho centavos. Y de-dependiendo también si, si se empieza a mover algo como de, digamos, de, del sur, de, de, del suroeste, cuando empieza a moverse mucho melón o cosas así, o cuando viene la temporada de árboles de Navidad, depende de la temporada, esto va, va a incrementarse aún más. Sí. Yara Morales: Igual que el refrigerado. El refrigerado se estaban pagando doce centavos y ahorita ya están cerca de dieciocho centavos. Entonces sí ha Miguel Aragón: subido bastante. Sí, sí, sí, nos está afectando en el queso, en la, en el movimiento del queso y en el movimiento de la mantequilla, definitivamente. Yara Morales: También. El Diego Carvallo: último tema que nos ha preguntado mucho la gente. Cuéntenos un poquito sobre el tratado de libre comercio y qué expectativas hay ahora que se vuelve a negociar entre Estados Unidos y México Bueno, Yara, tú ya has escuchado porque- La verdad, Yara Morales: hay mucha incertidumbre, hay muchas preguntas. Eh, ahora en junio que viene la revisión, pues, mmm, son varios, varios factores, ¿no? Se viene el, la revisión del Tratado de Libre Comercio y se viene el Mundial de fútbol en los tres países. Entonces todo el mundo anda como que muy alterado con todo eso, porque no saben, no sabemos qué es lo que vaya a pasar, no sabemos cómo se vaya a, a mover ese Tratado de Libre Comercio, si se va a renegociar, qué porcentajes pudieran darse o si vamos a quedar en cero, que es lo que todo mundo pretende, porque pues es la economía de México. La economía de México realmente necesita ese Tratado de Libre Comercio. Y, este, y yo creo que todos, porque para todos es un beneficio, ¿no? Inclusive para Estados Unidos. Entonces hay mucha incertidumbre, ¿no? La verdad, mmm, yo pregunto y ando investigando y todos mis clientes pues no saben qué es lo que vaya a pasar. Miguel Aragón: Así es. Y nos está… esta incertidumbre nos afecta día a día, eh, sobre todo con México por la cuestión del tipo de cambio, porque sale un encabezado y se dispara el dólar, eh, sale otro encabezado y se fortalece el peso. Es cuestión de todos los días, todos los días, este, y las, la cuestión política nos, nos, sí nos está afectando bastante. No, Diego Carvallo: no hay certidumbre. Miguel Aragón: Claro. Eh, pero una cosa superimportante que, que, que creo que está, eh, afectando algo lo del tratado y muchas otras cosas es que se nos vienen las elecciones primarias en, en, aquí en noviembre- Estados Unidos. Estados Unidos. Y a eso tú sabes que- Es muy importante. Es muy importante, porque hay que mover el, el, el, el, el, el, lo que piensa el público. Claro, hay que ganar los votos. Y hay que ganar los votos y aquí vamos a ver si se va a hacer cosas para, para tratar de tener algún efecto sobre eso. Y muchas veces no tiene nada que ver con México, Diego Carvallo: obviamente, también las de Irán, pero el mercado, básicamente, yo creo que va a mantener mucha volatilidad, va, va a haber mucha incertidumbre y, eh, las, las monedas van a tener, obviamente, como resultado una variación bastante violenta. Los bancos nos afectan. Exactamente. Yara Morales: Sí. ¿ Diego Carvallo: Qué otro punto importante? Definitivo, Yara Morales: definitivo. Ay, pues yo creo que todo esto es bien interesante. Vamos a ver qué sucede. Este, no sé qué otra cosa podemos Diego Carvallo: manejar. Voy a estar, yo voy a estar en Antad la próxima semana. Eh, lastimosamente, esta vez no me van a poder acompañar Yara y Miguel Pero yo voy a estar en Antalas, así que con mucho gusto, eh, me, me encantaría conocer y encontrarme con algunos de nuestros clientes estando allá. Así que no duden en, en contactarnos. Así es, así es. Desafortunadamente, Miguel Aragón: yo Diego Carvallo: no Miguel Aragón: voy. Sí. Ah, pero yo voy a estar en, en, en Alimentec, en Bogotá, creo que es. Entonces, si alguien nos está viendo en Colombia o que vaya a estar en Alimentec, por ahí estamos. Excelente, excelente. Que Yara Morales: por cierto también va a haber elecciones en Colombia. Miguel Aragón: También. Así es. Sí, Yara Morales: también va a haber elecciones en Colombia. Hay que ver cómo, cómo se- Más volatilidad. Se ve todo. Más volatilidad todavía. Más Diego Carvallo: gasolina al fuego, sí. Bueno, mil gracias a todos. Gracias, Miguel y Yara. Gracias. Gracias, gusto en Yara Morales: saludarlos a todos. Bye

May 5, 202620 min

A Market on Borrowed Time

Nonfat is sitting north of $2.25 on the CME spot market. But the bigger question is how long it can hold. In the latest episode of The Milk Check , the Jacoby team breaks down a dairy market that feels tight, fragile and increasingly dependent on timing. Here’s what they’re watching: Why nonfat prices surged, and what could break them How protein demand is pulling milk away from dryers Why MPC and MPI are outpacing nonfat What the inverted futures curve suggests for the second half of the year How depooling and Class III–IV dynamics are shifting milk flows Why butter feels weaker, even in the middle of flush Plus, the team talks through what happens if the nonfat market doesn’t break soon. There’s still a lot of milk moving. Just not where it used to go. Let the Jacoby team help you get up to speed on the new dairy market dynamics. Click below and listen to The Milk Check episode 98: A Market on Borrowed Time. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on the Milk Check. Jacob Menge : if this doesn’t start falling soon, I think there’s gonna be people that are trying to make money on the short side of this thing because they didn’t make money on the long side. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby & Co., Your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Today is May 1st. It’s a couple of days after the ADPI and a couple of weeks after the Cheese Expo, and it’s usually after those two meetings a really good time to talk markets. So, we’ll go ahead and start with the market that everybody was talking about at the ADPI. Josh, Jake, Joe, what’s going on with our nonfat market? We’re at $2.26 today, I believe. Are we gonna stay up here for a while? Josh White: It’s a more challenging question than just the absolute price today. I think that if I were to summarize the show, there was a recognition across the entire dairy industry that there might be some legitimate reasons for nonfat to be tighter than they have been over the last several years. It feels like a lot of different things have resulted in the current spot price that we’ve seen today. Over the last five years, we globally have made more skim milk powder and nonfat. We’ve consumed more skim milk powder and nonfat, but the real story is in the fact that we’ve also made a whole lot more milk, and that milk doesn’t seem to have found its way to the dryer. Seems to have found its way to a variety of different products. And equally as important during the ADPI was the talk about the protein market, which I think we can likely get to later. But things like RDT products, beverages, protein consumption, cheese consumption, a lot of things have consumed incremental milk growth, particularly in the U.S., and that happened after many years where buyers had very little concerns over access to supply. And as a result, I think in the background we watched global inventories decline, and that all seems to have come to a head here in the early part of 2026. And now as we’re getting into the northern hemisphere flush, and particularly in middle America, yeah, then we have ADPI. And so, what’s interesting about your question is throughout most of the conference people were pretty convinced, “Yeah, we’re in a tighter nonfat market. We’re all buying into that.” Yet, the days following ADPI, we’ve seen futures sell off a bit and we’ve seen a little bit more volume traded at the CME spot call. What’s that mean going forward? Jacob Menge : The most interesting thing going forward is you don’t talk to single person that says these prices are gonna stick around for six months. And so it’s really a matter of timing, how long do we stay up here? I think we’re already up here longer than most anybody thought. And the other thing is, nobody got this market right. Some people got in at a buck 25. Those guys sold at a buck 40. They said, “I’m gonna take my 15, 20 cents and run.” And they felt like a genius for about three days before we were quickly at a buck 60. And we’ve got this really interesting dynamic of no market participant really happy with it being up here because nobody really made money on the way up. And everybody convinced that, okay it’s on the clock for when it comes off. And I’m not even gonna disagree with that, right? I don’t think anybody would argue that long-term we’re gonna have $2.50 nonfat in 2028 or whatever. But this really comes down to a question of timing, and I think that’s where you get mixed opinions. But in general, I think most people are of the opinion that it’s not gonna be that long before this thing does start to fall. I don’t have that strong of an opinion actually, but what I do have an opinion on is if this doesn’t start falling soon, I think there’s gonna be people that are trying to make money on the short side of this thing because they didn’t make money on the long side, that they’re gonna start feeling some pain. And as our curve has come up a bit over the past month, we’ve got this really interesting market conditions where, again, if we’re up at these levels even a month from now, two months from now sure, I’d make the argument, why couldn’t you have another squeeze higher? Because there’s still not that much product available right now today. We’re starting to see that change. We saw some really nice volume on the CME spot auction just this morning. But that’s what the eyes are on is how long does this thing take? And if it starts this week versus six weeks from now, I think those have very different implications for how the market reacts. Josh White: We’ve got three different reactions to the nonfat market right now. You’ve got the true nonfat participants that need product now, and that’s priced in the $2.25-plus type range right now on the countryside. And to your point, we’re seeing a few more loads available which is a decent sign. The market participants seem pretty convinced that we’re gonna see an easing from this price, but so are futures. And I think that’s another important thing to point out is that the futures curve is inverted and it’s quite a bit lower than the spot price today. So, you can have both situations. You can have a spot price drop while the futures price maybe doesn’t as much. Over the past few days, the futures curve has definitely traded lower, confirming what we heard there is that most people don’t believe in this market being as tight as it is currently into the future. And we have to remember, this is traditionally a globally traded product and our competitors across the pond are still quite a bit lower and making a whole lot of skim milk powder today. So, I think longer term, if the assumption is that we need to compete globally for at least some business, particularly in markets like Asia, we’re gonna have to be a little bit more aggressive to compete, but futures are saying we will be. Another important topic was now we’re starting to see an acceleration of the NDPSR price now that we’ve had several months of higher spot prices, and that’s starting to have an impact on markets other than just the powder market. And I think maybe, Gus, you would have a little bit more to say about how the market’s reacting to some of the component prices moving higher in the solids nonfat side of things. Gus Jacoby: The situation as we’ve talked about in the past is protein is being pulled in a lot of different directions and we don’t see that demand going away anytime soon. The one comment I would make though is your isolated protein, certainly UF milk in fluid form, are seeing some of the highest demand that we’ve seen in a very long time. So, if you’re cheese maker, if you wanna fortify, and certainly on higher butterfat milk, there’s plenty of folks that wanna fortify right now, there’s probably a little bit of a pull on all the skim solids at this moment in time. I don’t think that story has changed. We’ve beaten that up for a while. But that’s certainly gonna pull a fair amount of milk out of the dryer for nonfat. You look at where the capacity has been added, whether it be in the Southwest with all the large cheese plants that have been added there, and then Upstate New York where some dryers are also gonna sit idle as some new processing capacity comes on there. That’s two areas of the country that are gonna get a lot less milk into the nonfat dryers than previous. And certainly here we are now in the flush as these plants ramp up, it would typically be your highest powder production timeframe, and instead those solids are going elsewhere, and that will keep nonfat production down for the foreseeable future. Ted Jacoby III: Gus, are you seeing milk move towards Class IV plants instead of Class III plants this year? Gus Jacoby : We still see fortification solids during this flush finding its way into cheese plants. But that’s your surplus skim solids that might exist, and those are only available, I believe, because of the flush. Now, it’s not UF milk, right? UF milk tends to be going elsewhere whether it be going to some sort of IV or II-type arrangement, whether it be a high-protein beverage or a high-protein dry product. But you are still seeing a fair amount of condensed and other skim solids going to the cheese vat for fortification purposes. I think the way that will unfold likely is that those surplus skim solids that aren’t being turned into isolated protein products, they’re gonna probably get pulled out to a certain degree of the cheese plants, and then cheese plants will just not be able to utilize fortification as they are typically used to or would like as we move through the year. Ted Jacoby III: So, what you’re saying is if the price stays up here, the milk that is going into the dryers making nonfat will continue to do so longer than usual, and they won’t lose the flush-specific skim solids? Gus Jacoby : I don’t know if I’d agree with that, Ted. I think the flush, no matter where you’re at in the country, the surplus solids find its way to the dryer typically. And as we come out of the flush, certainly less solids everywhere will go toward the nonfat dryer, just as it always does during those seasonality changes and we come out of the spring. It’s just that the areas I talked about, Southwest and Northeast, they’re not getting near as much as they used to in the flush, and so overall that production is going to be missed upon the market. Ted Jacoby III : Do you sense any kind of competition right now between Class III and Class IV for the surplus milk, or is it just following its usual path? Gus Jacoby: There’s some surplus condensed solids going to cheese plants that if a better price could be had into a powder plant, it would go there. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. Gus Jacoby: And that’s happening predominantly in the upper Midwest, and maybe a little bit in other areas. But certainly if you’re gonna get a higher return going into cheese than you could going into powder, you’re gonna go after it right now. And that’s where the demand I would say is. But surplus is surplus, and you’re gonna sell it to the highest return you can. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. That sounds good. Joe, anything to add on the nonfat side? Joe Maixner: Any milk that is making it to dryers, they’re prioritizing the milk to try to get into the milk protein concentrate (MPC) sector or milk protein isolate (MPI) as opposed to nonfat because the return is better. Ted Jacoby III: Makes sense to me. Joe, Josh, are we seeing MPC prices rise faster than nonfat right now? Josh White : Yeah, no, it has to be faster than nonfat because basis is appreciating. You’ve got an MPC market that likes to trade on a multiple of nonfat, and that has appreciated. That has continued to increase. Now, again, I noted earlier we got an inverted forward curve, which means that basis can be going up and price could stay the same or even go down the second part of the year. So, that’s the dichotomy we’re dealing with right now, is that from a cost basis, it looks like it could be pretty okay the rest of the year. And if there’s dry time available, you would think you’re gonna maximize that MPC. And when compared to whey protein concentrate (WPC) prices, MPC 85 is a bargain. But again, not everyone can easily substitute between the two, and that takes some time for the market to figure out which market participants may be able to switch between WPCs and MPCs, may take a little time for them to make that switch. Ted Jacoby III: So, I just wanna clarify for the audience. There’s two different ways we can look at it. If we’re selling it forward into the second half of the year, from a market perspective, we may be selling it for a lower price because the futures curve is a lot lower than the cash price is today. But if we’re selling MPC or nonfat today, you’re telling me that the nonfat price has effectively doubled in the last three months, and the MPC price has more than doubled because not only has its basis doubled based on the nonfat market, but the overage above that has also gone up. Josh, you’re on mute. Josh White : I thought you said clarify for the audience, so I didn’t realize it was a question for me. Ted Jacoby III : Oh the answer is yes. That’s exactly what’s happening. Josh White: Yes. Nailed it. Ted Jacoby II I: All right. So, basically what we’re saying is skim solids and protein are in high demand. That’s loud and clear. [Center commercial] Ted Jacoby III: Mike, what about from a federal order perspective, how this all feeds through the federal order? Obviously, since it’s a higher market right now, Class IV is what’s driving Class I prices. Obviously, it drives Class II prices. Is there anything else that kind of shifts around in a market like this? Mike Brown : There’s a couple things. First of all, a lot of your Class IV production is co-op owned. And what we’re seeing is depooling in Class IV, and to some degree Class II where it’s possible. So, rather than to go into the pool and get a blend price that’s below your class price, they’re electing to depool, just like we saw with cheese last fall when it was much higher than butter powder. We’re seeing some of that. But if you’re pooled, you’re ambivalent because you’re gonna pull the pool draw out anyway, and it’s not gonna make a lot of difference. It’s markets like the Southwest where a lot of that milk is never pooled or rarely pooled, and even in the eastern part of Kansas, changes in central order, you less have to pool it because the differential is so much wider now from Kansas City than it used to be. You may see more activity as you watch pool decisions being made since last June when the changes, people are getting a lot better at predicting whether or not they should be involved with the pool or not because it’s getting easier to predict because behavior is more what you’d expect. So, from my point of view, it has some effect, certainly, and if you’re trying to maximize a return to your owners and you have a plant with capacity and you get a higher value product, you’re gonna try to run the milk through that plant. Second part of that, of course, if you already have obligations, and some of these new cheese plants have supply obligations, they’re gonna get their milk regardless of the shift in price. So, it has less effect than you might think, but there is still effect, particularly if you’re having to pool your IV. There’s certainly a lot of IV being depooled right now. Production isn’t much lower. It’s just regionally shifted some, a lot more in the West Coast right now than in the Southwest. The orders kinda mute what would be the normal market decision to maximize return on milk for a producer because if you’re gonna blend it anyway, you don’t have the incentive that you do if you don’t. That said, right now, Class III guys, they’re pooled. The other part of this III-IV spread is, of course, what is the value of those solids into those cheese plants? I’m working on that today, Ted, trying to figure out how much does the high-WPC80 and WPI market bring to the value of buying outside Class IV solids to justify the price? Just on the price of cheese, I got some numbers here in front of me, you’re looking at on a per-pound cheese yield basis, if you buy powder in the powder market right now, it’s 25 to 40 cents more per pound cheese yield than it would be if you’re getting it from Class III. Mike Brown: You better either have a great margin or you’re really hitting up the whey market, and I’m gonna figure out exactly what that is. But that decision isn’t just a cheese decision, particularly with whey protein so high. There is a value of that nonfat dry milk whey protein that in the past didn’t matter as much as it does now. So, it may make that slightly more attractive or less unattractive than it would’ve in the past because your whey returns are so high on that protein compared to what they have been historically. So, it’s complicated, but it’s not just the value in cheese. It’s the value in cheese and in whatever your plant can make for whey. If you can make WPC80, you can pay more for those nonfat solids, obviously, than you can if you don’t. Ted Jacoby III: So to clarify, usually when you ship fluid into a Class III plant, you pay the Class III solids price. Mike Brown : That’s correct. Ted Jacoby III: If you use powder, you’re gonna have to pay whatever the prevailing nonfat price is. And most everybody running a cheese plant right now would really like their skim solids in fluid form so they can pay those Class III values instead of the Class IV values. Mike Brown: Oh, absolutely. But if they’ve got excess fat, and a lot of our American-style cheese plants now do have excess fat, what’s your market for that fat, and does it make sense to pay a little more for that protein from the Class IV side so that I can get a better price for that fat? Although we all know multiples this year aren’t near as horrible as they were a year ago. Yeah. So it’s a little better market. If you’re gonna get right down to dollars and cents, really you gotta look at your whole product mix out of your cheese plant and figure out what can you really afford to pay for those solids . And plus the opportunity of running your plant more full. What’s your fixed cost savings by running more product through your plant even if the cost is a little higher? Ted Jacoby III : Speaking of butterfat, Joe, this butter market just feels like it’s gone a lot lower than we expected it to go. Joe Maixner: Yeah, it’s weak. Cream’s not sloppy. It sure doesn’t seem like it’s super long in the market. But there’s still plenty of butter being made, and I think that this market’s also pricing in the fact that we’re anticipating that export reports are gonna decrease in the amount of butter that will get out monthly moving forward until this Middle East conflict gets resolved. And we’re basically peak flush through east of the Rockies, so this is the highest production point we’re gonna see through the rest of the year until we get past the holidays. Ted Jacoby III : Gus, are cream multiples poor right now as well? Gus Jacoby: We’re still on the flush, right? But they’re much, much tighter and higher than they were a year ago this time. It just goes to show that the additional churn capacity we’ve seen around the country and some better preparation by a lot of folks in dealing with excess butterfat has made this market a fair amount healthier when it comes to cream. Not near as sloppy as it was a year ago. Multiples have held at or better than even the year previous for flush times. So, I would imagine that what we’re gonna see here going forward is representative of this new marketplace. Ted Jacoby III: Josh, anything to say about the whey protein market? Josh White: Maybe some early signs of a market trying to figure out if it wants to continue on the trajectory it’s been on. WPC80, the general consensus out of ADPI is it remains tight. Seen a few extra spot loads trade this week though, so maybe some people were waiting for that information to let go of a little excess inventory or some incremental loads. WPI feels like it’s pretty stable. And the market came to the conclusion, I believe, during the ADPI conference, that, okay, it seems to be priced right. It doesn’t feel like WPI needs to go up at the moment. And we’ve definitely seen more offers since the show. Not ready to conclude that’s going lower because of where the WPC80 price is and how tight the WPC80 market is. So, those two have really converged at the moment, almost to a point that doesn’t make a lot of sense, the price spread between the two, so the market’s going to figure that out. So, yeah, that would be the only changes. Other than that, maybe just reiterating that we are constantly talking to new customers about new demand creation, and also outside of the traditional sports nutrition category, a lot of new CPG product launches and things like that are absolutely still in motion and consuming a lot of dry protein. Ted Jacoby III: Makes sense to me, and I would agree. And then, what I would say about cheese is it was easily the most boring market at the ADPI. I’d start by saying that. It feels like a market where a lot of people are complaining that the price isn’t low enough for them to get new sales on, but they also can’t find a ton of product out there. There is some spot product trading around, but there’s not massive quantities of it like you sometimes see in the height of the flush, which just makes me feel that right now the cheese market is in balance. In balance in a way that maybe we’re not getting a huge amount of additional export sales on the books, but we are continuing to export at a pretty high rate , especially considering there’s a lot of sales on the books that were put on the books earlier in the year that are gonna continue to ship. And it’s kept this market, this cheese market, I think, relatively well cleaned up considering we’re in the height of the flush. So, we don’t see a lot of movement going forward, at least in the next few months in cheese. You’re gonna trade in a 30 cent range, 20 cent range around where the current price is. That would be my take on the cheese market. All right. To all our listeners, I really appreciate you guys listening to us. I hope this information is helpful, and we look forward to talking to you soon. Take care. [Ending credits]

April 15, 202619 min

Steady Markets, Shaky Ground

With Easter behind us, demand is easing, milk production is climbing, and the spring flush is here. But beneath the surface, the dairy complex is anything but comfortable. In the latest episode of The Milk Check , host Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team look at the fault lines hiding beneath today’s seemingly stable dairy market. In this episode, we cover: Why milk is getting longer, but not everywhere How added processing capacity is changing the spring flush Whether butter has found its floor, or is simply stuck Why energy may be the biggest wildcard in dairy right now From regional milk balances to butter’s next move and the growing influence of energy costs, we look at what is really driving the dairy complex right now. To hear what could hold, what could crack and what the next few months may mean for dairy, listen to The Milk Check episode 97: Steady Markets, Shaky Ground. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on the Milk Check. Joe Maixner: It’s really watching the energy markets because it’s going to affect literally everything. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Today is April 6th, 2026. It’s the day after Easter. it’s also the birthday of a few illustrious people like Paul Rudd, Lando Calrissian, or actually Billy D. Williams and our own Joe Maixner, and we’re here to talk about dairy markets today. Sorry, Joe, and we’re here to talk about dairy markets today, and what we’re gonna be talking about is it’s the day after Easter and demand for the next oh five months or so tends to slow down a bit, while milk production tends to pick up and it’s peaking probably right as we speak, and over the course of the next four to five weeks. So, what does that mean for the dairy landscape? What does that mean for the price landscape? When I started thinking about what we were gonna talk about for this podcast, the market seemed to be in a lull right now. And then I realized it’s that time of the year. The question is, are they gonna stay here? Are they gonna go lower? We know that milk production is gonna continue to increase, especially in the Midwest, and we know that the next demand event of any significance is at least five to six months away. But where we’ll start is we’ll start with milk production. This is the time of year when things tend to get a little bit long. Gus, is milk long right now? Gus Jacoby: Depends what region of the U.S. you wanna talk about. From what I understand, there’s some areas of the West that are very long. The upper Midwest, when you have plants go down, it gets a bit ugly. But looking into the mid East, the Northeast, the Southeast, certainly the Southwest, where there’s quite a bit of new processing capacity, all these areas, are not all that long. It’s certainly the spring flush, but when you look at the Milk Production Report, you would think they would be a lot longer. And I think additional processing capacity in all these regions that we just discussed are where we’re a little bit shorter than we anticipated, considering what time of year it is. Ted Jacoby III: Usually, this time of year we’re hearing of milk moving at 2, 3, 4, $5 under. Is that happening this April? Gus Jacoby: There’s some spots in the upper Midwest where it gets that discounted, yes. But I would say that has more to do with plants being down in addition to the surplus that causes it to get that long. I think if everything is functioning in the region — in the upper Midwest, Mideast or anywhere on the Eastern corridor — you’re not seeing quite the growth that’s shown in the Milk Production Report. Anytime you see north of 2.5% or 3% in a Milk Production Report, usually that means the flush is a really ugly period of time. But in these regions of the country, we’ve added enough processing capacity to balance things out a bit more and not make it quite as long as you would think. Ted Jacoby III: So we didn’t really add any plants west of the Rocky Mountains. And in that case, the flush, especially in California, is probably already in the rear view mirror. Are we seeing milk really long in California and along the west coast right now? Gus Jacoby: I’ve heard that California, for a while there did get pretty long. That area hasn’t had the additional processing capacity outside of the Pasco facility to deal with the level of surplus we have in those regions. Ted Jacoby III: That means it’s fair to say that we’re in the flush right now, maybe past the flush out West Milk has gotten long, milk is plentiful, but we’ve added enough milk processing capacity that generally speaking, as long as there in, there are not any plant breakdowns. We seem to be able to handle the additional milk supply and we’re getting it all processed. Gus Jacoby: Yes, that’s the truth. Joe Maixner: The West has been running full for the past couple of months. But cream has not been super long. It’s been getting into the churns, but it’s also been finding homes elsewhere and it’s had decent demand. It’s been a little surprising that we haven’t had as excess of cream as we would’ve anticipated given how long milk has been. Ted Jacoby III: What about on the powder side? I’ve heard that the plants are not necessarily dumping any milk, but the plants are full enough that they can’t run anything specialty. So, all they’re running is straight up nonfat dry milk, which these days with protein component values in the milk the way they are, 38% protein, but they’re just running ’em flat out to get all that milk processed and dried. Is that a fair way to put it? Josh White: Yeah, I would say so. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. Milk’s getting processed. We’re making a lot of it, but Easter’s now in the rear view mirror. Since our runup, late January, early February, the cheese market seems to have settled into a price somewhere in the $1.60s, the butter market’s been $1.70s, $1.80s, it popped up over $2 and it seems to have faded since. Is it in its sweet spot yet, or where do you think the butter market will go over the next three to four months? Joe Maixner: I think there’s a lot of factors that go into where the butter market’s gonna price over the next few months. Obviously, we’ve got the macro events going on, the conflict in the Middle East, that’s pulled a lot of export opportunity out, as we’ve talked about at length in the past few podcasts. But there’s been a lot of product trading in this 15¢ to 20¢ range that we’ve been in over the past couple of weeks, and it seems that we’ve found a good range where buyers and sellers are happy to move product. There’s probably not much more downside potential at this price. But it’s a very real possibility that we could just stagnate here for the next few months until we see any type of real demand shift and production dies off into the summer. Ted Jacoby III: Are we gonna continue to be exporting butter? Joe Maixner: Yeah, absolutely. We’re still seeing exports move. Obviously we’ve lost some of our largest growth markets with this conflict, at least temporarily. But we’re still exporting to other regions, and all of those markets are growing. Will it be enough to offset the losses? I’m not sure, but we’re still moving product out of the country. Ted Jacoby III: The cheese export numbers have been phenomenal for about the last six months. We’ve been up over 30% year over year, almost to the extent of being a little bit surprising. Are we gonna be able to keep that up, do you think? Or is this market going to peter out a little bit ? Jacob Menge: You gotta suspect that you stop getting the blockbuster export numbers before too long because it has been two months now since we’ve come off of kind of those rock bottom prices that we were at. I think that will certainly take the top off of those export numbers. Cheese in general has probably been one of the quieter of the dairy markets, probably the quietest. It’s been sneaky though. There’s been these moments where it’s been hard to find product. There’s been moments where you can find product and I think it definitely is a tale of exactly what cheese you’re looking for. I don’t think colored cheddar has been particularly hard to come by. Meanwhile, white, for export has been pretty tough. All of that has resulted in this really nice gentle climb higher on cheese prices. We’re starting to see some cracks in the floor, especially internationally. We’re hearing mozz prices starting to get some pushback outta Europe. Those blockbuster export numbers on the cheese side are probably nearing an end. And if not then I think that’s gonna be the only thing that can keep driving the cheese price appreciably higher from where it’s at. If we can keep getting these pretty impressive numbers, sure, I don’t see why we couldn’t keeps stair stepping higher. Ted Jacoby III: Where the export numbers go, the price of cheese goes. Is that a fair way to put it? Jacob Menge: It certainly seems like an export driven market right now. Our opinion kinda long term is that’s U.S. cheese. This last year or so, maybe more 18 months, reflecting back on it, been the coming of age era for a serious export driven cheese price in the U.S. Historically, obviously export have played a factor, but it seems like that’s going to be the dominant force today and in the future. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah, I think I’d have to agree with that. And then there’s nonfat. Josh, this nonfat market, it sure went a lot higher than anybody expected. Even when it started to rally, we thought it could go up into the $1.50s, $1.60s, but I don’t think we expected the $1.90s. Is this market gonna stay here? Where does this market feel like it’s at today? And how does play out from here? Josh White: It’s still a tight market, Ted. Seems like there’s some commitments that are still behind. On the manufacturing level, it seems like demand’s been very strong. Let’s be clear, the West Coast is running a lot of nonfat right now, and it’s not changing the climate. Where we’re really seeing the vacancy in production is in the middle part of the country. It’s pretty well reported now. Everyone’s clueing in on this idea that there’s just been a lot of growth in the protein beverage market and in the UF space, and that seems to have kept a lid on our production growth for nonfat dry milk relative to the milk production growth and the protein growth that we’re experiencing in the milk. So yeah, it still remains pretty strong. There’s still good demand. Yeah, there’s a lot more conversations and we’re having a lot of conversations with customers across all the different industries that consume dairy products about what these higher prices mean. Are they real? Are they here to stay? If you look at the futures curve though, we’re way higher than that current futures price, and it’s an inverted curve, so we’re gonna have to pay a lot of attention to how that plays out, particularly as we get into these heavier milk production months, domestically and in Europe. But to be clear, there’s a lot of milk; that milk’s being processed into a lot of products; but in the U.S. side, we’re not seeing huge nonfat increases. I think across the pond though, they’re making a lot more skim milk powder, and they’re the beneficiaries of this tight market right now. Clearing a lot of that product into the international clients that, historically may have been looking to the U.S. as well. Ted Jacoby III: Do you think that means we’re gonna be export handicapped for the next three to four months that might just weaken the demand side of the equation for U.S. nonfat? Josh White: Yeah. The trade’s not as free as we all hope and expect it to be, and what I mean by that is there’s barriers to entry for bringing, like European product into Mexico. Approved brands across the world that might make it more difficult to exchange one supplier for another. But I think the answer to your question, the longer we maintain this type of premium, the less likely we are to export into some contestable markets. And it’s really tough when you’re talking about managing supply chain over the course of a year to get that right. There’s a real possibility that, we could miss some business that we wished we had later in the year. But, as it stands right now, it’s not like we’re sitting on a lot of extra product to move. Ted Jacoby III: So, when we look to the next, 1, 2, 3 months, things are tight enough. The nonfat market’s still coming from a place of overcommitment and then still trying to work through that. And there’s No reason to think that we’re gonna be trading nonfat in the $1.20s by Memorial Day. Josh White: No reason to think that. I think that we’re putting ourselves in a position where now’s the moment where we can take a little bit of the pressure off the market. We’re starting to see a little bit more seasonal milk in the middle part of the country. Nothing compared to what we saw a year ago going through the dryers, but we are starting to see maybe some signs of some relief. Ted Jacoby III: Proteins is the other market that seems to be shooting for the moon, up there with Artemis II. Are those protein prices gonna stay there or are they gonna come down? Josh White: Pointed question. Not for the second quarter, it sure doesn’t feel like they’re coming down. Every spot load that I see offered trades almost in the air. There still seems to be really good demand despite higher prices. And also despite a lot of customers asking about substitution. The answer to that question is maybe different for the next quarter than it might be for the next year. We’ll have to see. But as it stands right now as it relates to whey proteins, no slowdown in demand. Price strength remains, loads are very expensive. Conversations are less about the willingness to buy product than they are about the credit worthiness to sell that product to the clients because of just how expensive a load of WPC 80 or WPI cost today. We’re also starting to see some momentum in the MPC markets. Shouldn’t be a surprise. MPC 85 prices have been increasing. We’re starting to see customers that have the flexibility to do some substitution between WPCs and MPCs, considering it. More conversations about alternatives within the dairy complex like caseins and caseinate. But then, I have to imagine there’s also conversations happening about substitution outside of the dairy complex for plant proteins and alternative proteins. It’s a challenging market. Certainly a good sign that the consumer, particularly in the U.S. is paying a lot of attention not to just wanting more protein in their diet, but also the quality of the protein that they’re consuming. And it’ll be really interesting over the next year to see that tug of war: the valorization of high-quality, highly digestible dairy proteins, versus cheaper proteins going into certain applications and how the consumer responds to those economies. Ted Jacoby III: What’s the one product in the dairy complex right now that you’re really worried about? Because right now we just went through all the major commodities and there seems to be at least stability in the short term. Which one do you think breaks first in terms of price? What market should we be paying attention to if this dairy complex is gonna start to weaken on us? Jacob Menge: I’m paying most attention to butter right now, because I think the butter price has made these kind of violent moves. Not nonfat, violent, but more like consistently trending lower all last year. And then it’s made a pretty good recovery with that new crop, old crop switch. And then it’s trended lower from there. I think that’s important because that’s gonna have a big impact on that Class III, Class IV spread. And I think that Class III, Class IV spread is gonna ultimately drive some decisions at the fluid level, which is gonna have knock on effects for export markets, not just for butter, right? This is for all of these products. Because of that butter price , I think the math can be swayed one way or the other depending on where that goes. We have these kind of baked in assumptions on, okay, nonfat’s probably not staying at $2 through 2026, okay. We have some baked in assumptions on cheese. I think that means that decision maker is butter. And would anybody be shocked if it went up 50¢? Probably not. Would anybody be shocked if it went down another 10¢ or so? Probably not. I think you certainly would have debates around this, but that changes that Class III, Class IV spread enough that I think that has a lot of knock on effects. Ted Jacoby III: That makes a lot of sense. Josh, what about you? Which market are you paying attention to the most? Josh White: I would just say just the market. I think nonfat’s the obvious answer to that, but our entire dairy markets have been really changed this year by this protein movement. And what I can’t get my head around is the GLP-1 and cheaper GLP-1 catalyst. At what moment does a hundred dollars to fill a gas tank on a sedan start to change what people are willing to spend? That’s the one that I can’t really get my head around because it would be very easy to say, “Look out: these high protein products are here to stay.” The science backs it; people are eating less calories, but better calories. And that absolutely works for dairy proteins. But then on the other side, when you’re forced to make a decision about how you spend your money are you gonna get to a point where it’s choosing whether or not to fill your gas tank or whether or not to buy the powdered isolate. I wonder if we find that threshold at some moment this year. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah, I think that’s a great answer. Which market do you think is affecting the dairy markets the most right now? It’s the gas market. I think that’s fair. Joe, how about you? Joe Maixner: I’m clearly watching butter for obvious reasons. But I echo what Josh is saying. It’s really watching the energy markets because it’s going to affect literally everything over the course of this year. Jake brought up a great point about the Class III, Class IV spread, though. With the strength in nonfat, I hadn’t given a whole lot of thought process to butter’s impact in Class IV because you’re seeing Class IV through the rest of the year and into 27 at a minimum in the mid eighteens level which is a dollar premium to Class III, even with an inverted nonfat market. That’s definitely one to keep an eye on as well. But again, as a whole, just energy, energy’s going to affect everything all the way down to the consumer level. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah, I guess I agree. Gus, what are your thoughts on this market? Gus Jacoby: It’s hard not to talk about energy right now. That’s pretty obvious. Certainly when you’re hauling milk it has a big impact. Those fuel surcharges, hiking up to the degree that they have has made hauling milk quite a bit more expensive, considering the amount of water that’s being hauled and how much more expensive it is. That is something we can’t control. None of these markets are anything we can control. But when it comes to the dairy markets, I think the skim solids is something that has been very interesting to me. Gus Jacoby: How tight that market gets, the limitation that cheese has in getting fortification solids, are we gonna start turning to powder to fortify, and can cheese plants afford it with the Class III, Class IV spread as we shift, obviously with this protein demand continuing to increase and all the other areas that skin solids are required. I think it’s going to have a ripple effect on our industry that’s gonna take a while for us to get used to as skim continues to, find more and more demand. So, for me, it’s an interesting marketplace and I’ve been paying a lot of attention to that lately. Ted Jacoby III: Sounds good. Awesome. Thanks guys very much. I thought that was a nice summary of what’s going on in our markets right now. We’ll see how the next few months play out. Appreciate the time. Thanks for joining us today, and everybody stay safe out there.

April 2, 202619 min

A Logistics Expert on the Iran Conflict and Dairy Trade

Weeks into the Iran conflict, the disruption to dairy logistics is becoming more visible. Shipping dairy to the Middle East used to take 30 to 40 days. Now it can take 60 to 75. And the longer this conflict lasts, the more pressure it puts on the dairy trade. In this episode of The Milk Check , host Ted Jacoby III talks with our logistics expert, Tyler Jokerst , Director of Trade Operations, about what all this means for dairy producers, traders and exporters. In this episode, we cover: Why Persian Gulf access remains severely limited, and how exporters are responding How normal 30- to 40-day transit times can stretch to 60 to 75 days Why alternate routes are creating new choke points How higher oil prices are raising shipping and trucking costs Why fertilizer, feed costs and food inflation are becoming part of the conversation How delayed demand, product displacement and global economic stress could bring more dairy market volatility Listen to The Milk Check episode 096: A Logistics Expert on the Iran Conflict and Dairy Trade. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Coming up on The Milk Check . Tyler Jokerst: As this thing progresses, it could prolong it. Ted Jacoby III: 30 to 40 days of shipping from the East Coast to the Middle East is now 60 to 75. Welcome to The Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. Ted Jacoby III: Today, we have a special guest, Tyler Jokerst, our Director of Trade Operations, and we’re asking Tyler to join us ’cause we thought it would be a pretty timely topic to discuss logistics, both international and domestic. With everything going on in the Middle East, how is that affecting logistics, in terms of global trade for dairy, especially important for U.S. dairy, considering the fact that we’re exporting over 20% of our milk production these days? But it’s also affecting us domestically. Gas prices are probably up over 30% at this point, which is going to affect costs when we’re getting all the dairy products we make to consumers here at home. So, Tyler, welcome and thanks for joining us. Tyler Jokerst: Thanks for having me, Ted. Ted Jacoby III: Tyler, what is going on in the Middle East? How is it affecting logistics? Are we going to be able to get container ships into the Persian Gulf anytime soon? And if not, what are we doing in response to that? Tyler Jokerst: I think the easy answer is: we don’t know, other than there is a war over there. That’s the biggest thing right now causing the impact, and the huge leverage point Iran has is the Strait of Hormuz. For that strait, there’s a lot of product that goes in and out of there. Primarily oil, but, yeah, a big part of that is containerized shipments, as well. As we all know, the Middle East is a big purchaser of dairy products as well, right now. And we’re seeing a lot of disruption there as far as what we can get in or out of there. It’s almost come to a virtual stop. Ted Jacoby III: So, they can’t get into the Persian Gulf. Are there other options? Tyler Jokerst: Tomorrow, there might not be. That’s the situation we’re in right now. Every day is a day-to-day situation. The current workarounds are what the steamship lines are calling landbridges. So, essentially, you’re porting into ports on the other side of Saudi Arabia, where you’re not going into the Persian Gulf, and they’re either working on truck or train routes. It can get across, over to Riyadh or Dammam. Ted Jacoby III: So, Dammam is the main container port for Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf. What’s the port in the Red Sea that we’re using now instead? Tyler Jokerst: King Abdullah is one of ’em. If you go further north, where you’re getting into Jordan, you have Jeddah as well. So, there are a couple of different options there. I think the biggest issue that poses is you’re putting a lot of stress on infrastructure that maybe wasn’t built to handle that much volume coming through. This is another ripple effect we’re keeping an eye on, and we’re staying close with our freight forwarders and our steamship lines to see if we’re gonna have any ripple effects as far as boats that are anchoring offshore and waiting to get checked. If you were to look at it right now, you’re looking at a miniature effect of what COVID was like in LA back in 2020, when you had numerous boats anchoring offshore, waiting to get offloaded, because you’re at a choke point, trying to put all that supply into one port. So, it’s unfolding as we go through this day by day. Ted Jacoby III: So, I take it, there’s a traffic jam going into Jeddah and King Abdullah at [00:03:00] the moment? Tyler Jokerst: Just a little bit. Ted Jacoby III: What delays are we experiencing? Tyler Jokerst: If you were to look at the product on the water, we are currently looking at maybe 15 to 20 days in our current state. As this thing progresses, it’s gonna be up to the providers, the steamship lines and the freight forwarders and how they work with us to be able to dictate what new routes they need to take or what alternatives they need to make, as far as getting this product to those consumers. So, it could prolong it to where it’s a constant 20-day longer shipping period than what we’re used to seeing in those areas, which is typically anywhere from 30 to 40 days. Ted Jacoby III: 30 to 40 days of shipping from the East Coast to the Middle East is now 60 to 75. Tyler Jokerst: Yep. Absolutely. You’re right on that one. Ted Jacoby III: Are we still loading containers of cheese and powder and butter and other things and putting ’em on boats and sending ’em to the Middle East? Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. We are. One of the key things that we’re having to keep an eye on is per steamship line. So, if you’re working with freight forwarders, they work with numerous different steamship lines, and every steamship line handles it differently. And the main part of why they’re handling it differently is all related to the geopolitics. Some of the steamship lines are owned by Mediterranean companies, maybe in Italy. There are other steamship lines owned by companies in Israel. They’re probably not getting through the Strait. And then you have the Chinese and Korean-owned steamship lines that tend to have a little more leeway because they might be a little more neutral with Iran, where they might be allowed to pass. It’s different with every carrier. So, whenever we look at this, and we assess the notes that we have to have with our freight forwarders, we have: who’s the service provider that we think we should be using, because that’s the one that tends to have the golden ticket in. Tyler Jokerst: And that’s where we have to balance out cost and service. They might have the golden ticket that can get them into the port. That’s gonna come at a price. They know the demand’s higher because, from a geopolitical standpoint, they can get in and they can get the job done where maybe the other providers can’t. You start peeling a lot more layers back than what you’ve historically had to, where you just look at a rate in a transit and say, “Okay, this works. We’ll communicate according to our customer and meet their demands.” Now, you’re dealing with a war. It’s unpredictable for those involved directly and indirectly, including us. And that’s where we have to weigh out additional options that are being thrown at us on a daily basis. That target is moving. We’ll come in tomorrow, and we’ll probably have a different set of rules that we need to follow for that day. Ted Jacoby III: But you bring up a good point. I never thought of it that way before. It’s like you can’t take Delta Air Lines into the Middle East because it’s American-owned, but you could probably take Emirates. Most big steamships are actually not owned by the U.S., and those steamship lines that have good relationships over there actually can still get product in. Tyler Jokerst: I don’t think you get any airplanes into the Middle East right now, but yeah, from a steamship line standpoint, you can. Whenever I say they can pass through Hormuz, you went from several hundred ships going through the Strait of Hormuz in a day to now, single digits. So, that’s a loose thing where it’s allowed, but less risk of impact or targeting from an economic standpoint, whenever you’re going on [00:06:00] one ship versus the other, that’s the biggest thing to consider. Ted Jacoby III: How much have shipping costs increased? What was the going rate for a container into the Middle East from the East Coast, and what is it now? Tyler Jokerst: If you’re looking at door-to-door, or door-to- port, we were hovering around $ 8,000, all in, and now it’s looking more around $10,000, all in. Ted Jacoby III: Maybe 20%, 30% increase in shipping costs. But that’s not double or triple. Tyler Jokerst: Not yet. It could be by next week, though. Ted Jacoby III: Got it. Tyler Jokerst: Yep. Mike Brown: Tyler, when you have a select group of shipping companies you can work with, and you look at the 20%, 30%, that surprised me, it’s not higher. Do we see people deciding we’re just gonna lay low and not try to ship to that market for a while until we see things more stable because of the risk? Tyler Jokerst: I won’t name specific providers, but we do have some providers where when this thing started to kick off, they were already putting some plans together, and then by the following week, they decided that any of their refrigerated equipment they didn’t want going on that landbridge option that we were talking about earlier. So, you are seeing that as well, where they’re purely looking at it from an insurance standpoint. Insurance costs are going up a thousand x and saying, “Okay, the risk isn’t worth the reward right now,” because of how much insurance costs to go in there—Wartime, surcharges, things like that. And they’re completely staying out of the situation altogether and just rerouting their equipment. The bigger effect is that as this goes on, and there’s no improvement to the current situation, it will ripple into the rest of the markets, and you will start to see delays at other ports that maybe service these ports, as far as these types of trade lanes. And you’ll start to see some disruptions in the supply chain because people have to do something with that product that maybe they already sold. Reselling it might not be an option because the way the markets are right now, the pricing might not allow for that to happen, especially with dairy. If you’re getting a premium for exporting it versus selling it domestically, you’re gonna sit on it and wait this thing out. So, now you start to have backups in your supply chains at the origin ports, maybe the domestic warehousing, or even, in some cases, the manufacturing sites. So, there are a lot of effects that come from that. Ted Jacoby III: Tyler, I know that Europe has traditionally sold a lot more dairy into the Middle East than the U.S., even though the U.S. does do a decent amount of business there. They’re having the same problem we are in terms of getting to these ports, but are they capable of shipping product over the land? Let’s say across Istanbul, through Turkey and get there that way? Or are there too many issues with that approach? You’re going through Jordan, you’re going through Syria, you’re going through the Kurds. Territory. Tyler Jokerst: Israel’s dropping bombs north of the country as well. You’re not just looking at us dropping bombs in Iran and then Iran, throwing missiles across the water. You got Israel trying to take on a two-front war as well. I couldn’t see how a land option would be feasible. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah, I would have to agree with that. So, we know what’s going on in the Middle East. We know that it’s harder to get the product there right now. How’s it affecting us back home? Where are we seeing the effects [00:09:00] in logistics back home? Tyler Jokerst: Gas prices all day. I think barrels are currently sitting at around $95 a barrel. We’ve seen truck prices rise anywhere from 10 to 20%. It is a prolonged tightness in capacity, as well, but fuel has been a big factor as far as our domestic truckload goes, and the rates that we’re used to paying at this time of year. Ted Jacoby III: Outside of just increased cost because of increased diesel prices, are we seeing any other effects? What about the domestic ports? Are we seeing any backup at the domestic ports? Or are our ports still functioning normally, and it’s really only a fuel surcharge problem? Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. Our ports are operating functionally, as it stands. Those ripple effects will eventually hit us. They haven’t yet, but the longer this thing goes on, the more exposure that leaves to ports that are further away from the epicenter. Joe Maixner: Keep in mind, a lot of the stuff that is still shipping over into the Middle East is contracts that were put on the books before any of this started. We haven’t seen much interest on anything since the beginning of March going into that region, for obvious reasons. Ted Jacoby III: So, we’re not seeing any new contracts, but we’re still having conversations with our customers about how to fulfill the contracts that were on the books that were expected to ship at this time before the conflict started. Joe Maixner: Yeah. I think there’s going to be some pent-up demand the longer that this goes on. It’s gonna cause a pop in markets when this finally gets resolved because everybody’s gonna see that demand come back. Especially given the fact that the longer this goes on, the more potential for our markets to weaken because we’re not getting additional sales on the books and product out. So we could see a quick pop when things really do open back up. I do think it would take a while for that stuff to even roll through the system because there’s gonna be a backlog in ports and products still needing to ship anyway. So, expect more volatility. Tyler Jokerst: We’re currently going through an annual slowdown, too, in the Middle East. I think it’s Eid al-Fitr that’s going on right now during Ramadan. So, a lot of the buildup in exports is prior to that, with them trying to get all the product over there. Just looking at last year, before we had any major geopolitical events happening, aside from tariffs, we would typically see a slowdown this time of year going into that region. That’s a good point. Diego, what are your thoughts? Diego Carvallo: I know that energy is hugely affected by the Hormuz channel being blocked. But is food impacted as much as energy? I think the answer is no. I think most of the destinations where we take our dairy products are both from the U.S. and from Europe. At least access has not been blocked as bad as it has happened for exports of energy. So I’m just wondering if that impact on dairy is mainly caused by energy or just because it’s impacting fundamentals for our products. Ted Jacoby III: I know that Dammam is the big port in the Gulf for container ships. It’s a big oil port too, but there’s a separate container port, and then Bahrain and Qatar and even Dubai have their own ports. But then, Saudi [00:12:00] Arabia in particular has Jeddah and King Abdullah. And so, those two ports have taken over in the meantime. Tyler’s comment about Ramadan being in the rearview mirror is appropriate. This is the slowdown time with demand. And so we probably aren’t feeling the effect as much. I also think, from an energy perspective, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting other countries, like China, a lot more than it’s affecting the U.S. because we have, over the last 20 years, grown more energy independent because of the shale and fracking we’ve been doing domestically. And I think that has helped quite a bit. Joe Maixner: Oceania is at a severe disadvantage with this right now, too. I was looking at their energy prices and their diesel costs in Australia, for example. It’s the equivalent of $8.20 a gallon in U.S. terms. They’re really feeling the pinch, and I believe that New Zealand’s in the same boat, and that’s going to affect their shipping rates. Ted Jacoby III: All these huge container ships, what is their fuel? Diesel? Tyler Jokerst: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: So, it’s just like trucks. They just buy a lot of diesel. So, if they’re dropping off in Australia, they’ve gotta fill up in Australia, where that oil costs a lot more than it does in other places. Mike Brown: I think this is all walking around the macro effects, and I think we need to talk about that. Let’s talk about the cost of producing food with what we’re doing to the urea, the nitrogen fertilizer markets, with the cutoff of moving product through the strait. Yes, a lot of it’s already bought; it isn’t all already bought. Between that and what we’re seeing with tariffs in Canada and their struggles with potash, we’re raising the cost of growing food because cows eat food just like we eat food. So, there are costs there that I think we have to think about. The other thing is these, particularly the Asian or even European, but Asia, ’cause that’s our export opportunities, those economies are so dependent on oil coming through the strait. And as those economies slow down, they tend to be much more price-sensitive about products than we are because they don’t have the incomes we have. Is that gonna slow down? Is that gonna cause a longer-term impact? If we see the world economy basically slow down, what will that do to dairy demand? Dairy is essential, but it is something cost-wise that they may be looking for other alternatives, particularly on the fat side. We can’t ignore that possibility. Right now, it looks good. Look at the butter market, today it recovered a little bit again. Prices, right now, for farmers are good. They can make money in current markets. But how much global slowdown will we see from this, and how will that affect demand for our U.S. dairy products, is still a concern of mine. Ted Jacoby III: We’re sitting here at the tail end of March. If this thing doesn’t show real signs of starting to wrap up in the next few weeks, I think there’s gonna be a tone shift in the general macroeconomic markets. There’s been a lot of talk: how is the U.S., and how is Trump gonna extract ourselves from this conflict? And we’re getting to that point where the length of time is becoming a very real issue. We haven’t quite got there, I don’t think. But I think we’re getting close. Mike Brown: Those of us who lived through stagflation in the late seventies, [00:15:00] it’s feeling a little bit too much like that right now. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree. In the seventies, gas prices caused it. Mike Brown: Oh, absolutely. And it was the conflict with Iran that caused some of that, too. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. I think that the economy had already been set up for stagflation for other reasons, government debt being the big one, but you add this to it, yeah, you’re right. That’s very problematic in terms of getting the economy to function smoothly. Mike Brown: Government debt isn’t exactly our strong point right now. Ted Jacoby III: The only saving grace is that everybody has the same problem. You look at any developed country, and they’ve all got the same problem we do when it comes to government debt. Mike Brown: Yeah, they do. And if you’re looking at our export opportunities, that isn’t necessarily a good thing. There’s a lot to be nervous about right now. Tyler Jokerst: If you tie it back to dairy exports, the Middle East accounts for like 20% of all dairy exports in the world. They consume a lot of cheese. That seems to be a growing sector for ’em as well. For us, that hurts the bottom line. So it seems to be one of the biggest issues for us as a handler of dairy products. Mike Brown: One of the conversations at U.S. Dairy Export Council meetings this week was displacement. If the product can’t get there, who’s gonna buy it? That’s more competition for us because that’s the close-by market for Europe. They love it. It’s close, it’s efficient, but if they can’t get the product there, we’re gonna compete with them somewhere else. Ted Jacoby III: When it comes to cheese and butter, Mike, you’re spot on. We’re getting lucky on the non-fat side because Iran was a skim milk powder exporter. And that’s off the market, too. Mike Brown: If you look at prices powder’s not having a problem with finding demand. Ted Jacoby III: They aren’t. Mike Brown: A lot in supply. Ted Jacoby III: [Laughter] Tyler Jokerst: Alright. Tristan Suellentrop: We’ve all dealt with shipment delays before, but what’s the most absurd reason you’ve ever seen or heard of one being held up for? Tyler Jokerst: Oh, shipment delays. Yeah, the worst one I had wasn’t at Jacoby; we seemed to have it dialed in here. The worst one was from my previous employer. We hit a trans shipment point. Transshipment points are where you’ll have the steamship lines connect with another boat, and they’ll offload some of their containers to the other boat and continue. And it was something like a 40-day delay of just getting it from one boat to another that severely hurt us. This is one that we’ve had. During 2020, there were plenty of ’em. You looked at the ports of LA and Long Beach, and it could be 30-40 days. And these boats were just anchored off the shore and waiting to get offloaded. But because of all the causes and effects that we had with COVID, you ran into a lot of delays from that. That was a regular occurrence back in 2020 and 2021. Ted Jacoby III: Tyler, thanks for joining us. Really appreciate it. Great discussion. So thankful that you’re helping us navigate all this stuff in these very interesting times. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today.

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