The Lumber Word

Hosted by Ashley Boeckholt

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100

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Jun 2026

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About the show

Three Lumber Industry veterans talk about the weekly, monthly and yearly trends. What is going on with inventory in the field, production and distribution. We help educate everyone in the distribution chain with information most like to not talk about. Highlighted items that are overvalued and undervalued are also discussed. Guests in the industry will occasionally drop in to help us dial in some lumber details. Most important is we have fun talking lumber and our listeners love it.

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June 11, 2026Episode 17145 min

EP 171: The Bull Market Nobody Believes In (Yet)

The lumber market may be sending its clearest signal of 2026: supply is shrinking, inventories are lean, and futures are leading the charge higher. In Episode 171, the crew welcomes industry veteran Kip Fotheringham for a deep dive into the forces reshaping North American lumber markets. From tightening SPF supply and Southern Yellow Pine transportation challenges to Canadian curtailments, futures fund short covering, and the surprising resilience of housing demand, the group lays out the bullish case that's beginning to unfold. They debate whether we're in the first inning or the third inning of a larger rally, examine why major funds are potentially abandoning short positions, and discuss how shrinking production capacity could collide with steady demand to create a much tighter market through the summer. The conversation also explores Berkshire Hathaway's investment in homebuilding, multifamily construction strength, pulp mill closures, fiber supply challenges, and the Longview explosion's potential impact on Western sawmill production. If you're a lumber buyer, trader, mill operator, or builder, this episode offers a roadmap to the risks—and opportunities—developing beneath the surface of today's market. Timeline 00:00 – Lumber, Airports & Industry Reach Portland Airport gets a surprising shoutout, and the crew shares a story highlighting how The Lumber Word continues to influence industry conversations. 03:30 – Are We Early in a Bull Market? The panel debates whether the lumber rally is just getting started and what buyers should be doing right now. 07:00 – Transportation Becomes the Story Escalating trucking costs and regional supply constraints are changing how lumber moves across North America. 09:00 – Canada's Supply Problem Gets Real Discussion on curtailments, mill economics, and why North American production continues to shrink. 15:00 – Why This Summer Feels Different The crew explains why inventory positions, contract reductions, and tariff pressures have created an unusual setup. 22:00 – The Longview Explosion & Fiber Fallout A major disruption in the Pacific Northwest raises new questions about residual markets and future sawmill production. 25:00 – Smart Money is Buying Housing Berkshire Hathaway, Japanese investors, and multifamily construction all point toward longer-term confidence in housing demand. 30:00 – Funds Are Covering Shorts Kip breaks down what the futures market is signaling and why short-covering could fuel a larger move higher. 35:00 – What Could Derail the Rally? The group examines the biggest risks to their bullish outlook and what buyers should watch over the next 30 days. 44:00 – Final Take: Bullish Until Proven Otherwise The episode wraps with a discussion on shrinking supply, steady demand, and why the market's biggest surprise may still be ahead. Guest: Kip Fotheringham Lumber Trader and Market Expert KipF@telus.net Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

June 5, 2026Episode 17056 min

EP 170: Freight Is Eating the Lumber Market

This week on The Lumber Word, the crew tackles the biggest issue in lumber today: freight. From Buffalo reloads buried under railcars to Southern Pine mills struggling with transportation costs, the conversation centers on how logistics—not mill prices—are driving the market. The team discusses tightening inventories, shrinking North American supply, species substitution, and why prompt wood may be worth more than ever. Gregg doubles down on his bullish lumber outlook, while the group debates whether SPF is significantly undervalued heading into the second half of 2026. If freight remains tight and supply stays constrained, the market could be setting up for a stronger move than many expect. Timeline 0:00 – Back From the Road – Travel stories, reload visits, and market observations. 2:00 – Buffalo Is Jammed – Railcars are arriving fast and unloading slowly. 5:00 – Chicago Reload Expansion – New capacity could become a major advantage. 7:00 – Freight Is the Story – Higher trucking costs are changing lumber economics. 11:00 – Pine Mills Hit the Brakes – Transportation issues may be limiting production. 15:00 – Contract Pricing Gets Tested – Suppliers are absorbing freight pain. 18:00 – Rail vs. Truck – Why transportation knowledge is becoming a competitive edge. 23:00 – Greg's Bull Case – Less supply, steady demand, and higher prices ahead. 29:00 – Prompt Wood Wins – Inventory ready to ship is commanding a premium. 32:00 – Lean Pipelines Everywhere – Buyers may be more undercovered than they realize. 35:00 – Second Half Setup – The crew sees more reasons for lumber to rise than fall. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

May 21, 2026Episode 16953 min

EP 169: Commando Lumber Trading: Tight Wood, No Trucks, No Hedge

The crew breaks down a lumber market that feels calm on the surface but is getting tighter underneath. Trucking is a disaster, inventories stay lean, mills are not panicking, and buyers still have not adjusted. 0:00-4:00 - College kids, Waymos, and bad decisions after midnight 4:00-9:00 - SYP stabilizes but trucking wrecks pricing 9:00-15:00 - Freight market insanity and disappearing trucks 15:00-22:00 - Spruce stays steady while inventories thin out 22:00-28:00 - Canadian curtailments and supply fears build 28:00-34:00 - Reloads emptying and buyers still underbought 34:00-39:00 - Futures, no hedge, and bullish summer bets Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

May 14, 2026Episode 1681 hr 8 min

EP 168: Is Lumber Coiling for a Summer Breakout?

This week on The Lumber Word, Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and guest Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies break down one of the most interesting lumber markets in years. The crew discusses low volatility, lean inventories, seasonal strength, futures market psychology, pine versus spruce pricing, multifamily demand, and why the next major lumber move could happen fast. The episode also explores European lumber markets, supply chain transparency, and current housing market realities. Timeline 0:00 – Intro & Mike Wisnefski joins 1:45 – Market feels split 4:10 – Western lumber floor 7:30 – Seasonal market trends 12:00 – Curtailments & duties 15:20 – Futures pessimism 17:30 – Housing & multifamily 22:45 – Volatility discussion 27:00 – Inventory strategy 29:00 – Pine vs spruce 35:30 – Europe market insights 39:30 – Quarterly pricing 42:00 – Final market outlook Guest: Mike Wisnefski from Westline Capital Strategies Inc. MikeW@westlinecapital.com SYP June 2026 SYP StoneX Southern Yellow Pine Lumber Risk Academy June 9, 2026-June 10, 2026 Information and Registration for the SYP Hedging Academy https://stonex.cventevents.com/event/SYPLRA2026/summary Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

May 7, 2026Episode 16756 min

EP 167: Is Lumber Quietly Setting Up for Another Bull Run?

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze? Timeline 0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active 3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species 6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy 10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish 15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply 20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate 27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business 33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com ne of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze? Timeline 0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active 3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species 6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy 10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish 15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply 20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate 27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business 33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

April 30, 2026Episode 16651 min

EP 166: Is Freight the Real Lumber Market Right Now?

This week’s episode breaks down a confusing lumber market where price prints don’t reflect reality. Southern Pine appears to be selling off, but much of the move is driven by rising and volatile freight costs rather than true demand weakness. Inventory remains tight in many regions, while buyers hesitate due to bearish sentiment and futures discounts. Meanwhile, multifamily construction continues to support demand, even as overall housing trends flatten. The result is a fragmented, regional “island market” where logistics—not supply—are dictating price. Timeline (Condensed) 0:00 – Market Setup: Weak tone on paper, post-Montreal reset 2:00 – Pine Selloff = Freight Story: Prices down, driven by trucking costs 5:00 – Cash vs Futures Disconnect: Strong Western pricing vs discounted board 10:00 – Supply Constraints: Euro down, Canada tight, limited new supply 15:00 – Housing Demand: Flat overall, multifamily supporting pine 20:00 – Fragmented Market: Regional “islands,” no easy arbitrage 25:00 – Relative Value Trades: 2x6 vs 2x4 spread, board looks cheap 30:00 – Buyer Behavior Shift: Late buying driving higher freight 35:00 – Key Takeaway Trades: Futures and select items show opportunity Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

April 17, 2026Episode 16551 min

EP 165: Spring-time Round Up

Summary Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market. Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check. The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher? Timeline 0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility 2:00 – Truck vs rail market split 4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy 6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply 8:00 – Euro supply dropping off 12:00 – Tariffs (AR6 → AR7) breakdown 15:00 – Mills still losing money 18:00 – Logistics driving everything 25:00 – Macro + economy check 27:00 – SYP gaining market share 38:00 – Futures shifting (contango → tighter) 46:00 – Just-in-time buyers vs distributors Guest Kip Fotheringham kip@telus.net Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

April 9, 2026Episode 16457 min

EP 164: The K-Shaped Economy—Who’s Pulling the Wagon?

Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction. The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts. They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy. If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers. Timeline 00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup 03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts 08:30 – Government spending vs affordability 14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook 16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues 18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand 24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained 30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class 41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks Guest Brian S. Wesbury Chief Economist / First Trust www.ftportfolios.com Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

April 3, 2026Episode 16354 min

EP 163: Paywalls, Pine Rips, and Freight Freakouts

Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first! The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think. Timestamps: 0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel) 4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why nothing’s changing soon 9:00 – Freight explosion: rail surcharges + trucking volatility crushing margins 13:00 – Back-to-back trading vs. real value in a chaotic logistics market 14:00 – Pine vs. Spruce: why SYP ripped and SPF lagged hard 20:00 – Contracts vs. spot market—are they distorting price discovery? 29:00 – Freight as the real driver of the pine rally (canary in the coal mine) 33:00 – Bull market or head fake? Supply cuts vs. pipeline restock debate 35:00 – “Seller arrogance” = warning sign of a potential top 40:00 – Buyers scrambling to rebuild inventory + hot items emerging fast Takeaway: Freight is the hidden force, Pine led the charge, and now the market’s walking a tightrope between a continued grind higher… or the early signs of a summer reset. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

March 28, 2026Episode 16258 min

EP 162: Is Lumber Having Its WTF Moment?

Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down. From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might be closer than you think. If you want to understand what’s actually driving this market—and where the opportunity (and risk) is—this one delivers. Timestamps 0:00 – Intro + Mike Logan returns 1:00 – Building a trading team from scratch (startup realities) 5:00 – Hiring, training, and the next generation in lumber 7:45 – Market kickoff: everything moving higher 9:00 – Texas demand, low inventories, and species substitution 12:00 – Low-grade explosion (why #3 is driving the bus) 16:00 – Hem-fir + western market tightness 17:45 – Southern Yellow Pine surge + short positions 19:30 – Freight chaos: trucks disappearing, costs spiking 23:00 – Why logistics = real pricing power right now 27:00 – Regional markets tightening due to freight 29:00 – When does the “panic buying” moment hit? 30:30 – Global flows (Euro, Middle East disruption) 33:30 – Macro curveballs: rates, crypto, housing demand 36:30 – Inventory positioning: who’s exposed right now Guest Mike Logelin President-Gulf Coast Shelter mlogelin@gulfcoastshelter.com Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Dustin Jalbert Senior Economist Wood Products djalbert@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com