The Lumber Word

Hosted by Ashley Boeckholt

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100

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Oct 2026

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About the show

The Lumber Word is the weekly podcast for the North American lumber and building materials industry. Three lumber industry veterans break down lumber prices, market trends, supply and demand, sawmill production, inventories, transportation, housing, and the forces moving the physical lumber market. From CME lumber futures and commodity trading to Canadian and U.S. production, wholesalers, distributors, dealers, and homebuilders , The Lumber Word brings real-world perspective from people actively participating in the market. Each week, we discuss what we're seeing, what we're hearing, where the lumber market may be headed—and occasionally disagree about all of it. If you buy, sell, trade, produce, transport, or invest in lumber and building materials, this is your market conversation.

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October 23, 2026Episode 18743 min

EP 188: Low Inventories, Lower Expectations — What’s Holding Lumber Up?

The lumber market is sending mixed signals. Buyers are keeping inventories lean, mills are struggling to maintain profitability, and housing demand continues to disappoint. Yet lumber is still moving, and certain products are commanding surprising premiums. This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles welcome back Mike Logelin of Gulf Coast Shelter for an unfiltered discussion of the North American lumber market heading into the final months of 2026. From Southern Yellow Pine versus SPF pricing and mill breakevens to weak housing starts, construction labor shortages, and the challenge of making money while holding inventory, the group digs into what buyers, sellers, and traders are experiencing firsthand. They also debate CME lumber futures, contango, delivery economics, the lack of liquidity in Southern Pine futures, and whether regional basis risk makes effective hedging harder than it should be. As Gregg puts it: “The only positive that I can find right now is how negative everyone is.” Is extreme pessimism a sign of a turning point—or is there more pain ahead? Tune in for market insight, honest disagreement, and a few laughs. Timeline 00:00 Introduction and Mike Logelin returns 01:10 Southern Yellow Pine market conditions 03:20 Mill costs, breakevens, and production curtailments 05:25 Housing starts, permits, and completions 06:00 Construction labor shortages and builder slowdowns 09:45 Panelization, technology, and housing affordability 14:55 SPF pricing and buyer’s remorse 18:40 Southern Pine replacing SPF in certain markets 20:10 Lumber futures, cash pricing, and delivery economics 22:20 Lumber production and demand trends 26:20 Contango, backwardation, and the CME contract 29:20 Hedging when margins disappear 32:25 Market liquidity and distributor profitability 34:25 EFP opportunities and Southern Pine futures 38:00 Regional basis and Southern Pine futures liquidity 41:50 Bearish sentiment and the lumber market outlook 43:40 European lumber imports and freight concerns 45:15 Closing remarks

October 9, 2026Episode 18646 min

EP 186: Back to the Lumber Futures — Short Funds and the Last Lumber Cowboys

Lumber prices are soft—but the demand picture may surprise you. Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber joins The Lumber Word crew to explain why his company’s lumber volume has held relatively steady, where multifamily business is growing, and what customers are already booking for 2027. Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles discuss whether SPF, US Species and SYP are finding a bottom, how mill curtailments may be supporting prices, and why freight remains a major challenge. Scott shares how he manages inventory against future commitments, why buying too far ahead can add costs, and what’s driving Texas builders toward Southern Yellow Pine studs. The conversation also covers tight construction financing, the outlook for housing demand, and a key question: has supply fallen fast enough to keep weak demand from pushing lumber prices much lower? Episode timeline 00:00 Welcome and the first Patreon Insiders livestream 01:09 Lumber market overview: seasonal weakness and discounted cash prices 02:37 Spruce outlook: mill economics and potential curtailments 04:51 Southern Yellow Pine: freight and regional price differences 08:32 Meet Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber 10:27 Multifamily demand: steady volume and shifting regional activity 13:23 Booking 2027 projects and the risks of pricing too far ahead 16:02 How builders buy lumber—and how Scott manages inventory 19:19 Inside storage: protecting lumber and panels 20:51 Species switching: Southern Yellow Pine versus Douglas fir studs 22:16 Finger-jointed studs: pricing, availability, and alternatives 25:23 Western lumber update: is Douglas fir finding a bottom? 27:03 Gregg’s bottom call on spruce 2x4s 27:53 Homebuilder pressures and financing structures 30:24 Multifamily financing: contractors putting equity into projects 31:49 Has housing demand bottomed? The outlook into 2027 36:22 Q4 buying, curtailments, and a potentially higher price floor 37:59 Mill profitability and the importance of product mix 40:01 Why Western mills produce different sizes and grades 41:55 The Man in the Arena and lessons from trading every day 43:04 Patreon appreciation and a possible AI addition to the show 46:48 Thanks to Scott and closing remarks Timestamps match the original recording. Edits or an added intro will shift them. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

September 25, 2026Episode 18552 min

EP 185: Something Has to Give in Lumber — Dustin Jalbert

AI, data centers and lumber? They're more connected than you might think. Dustin Jalbert, Economist and Director of Wood Products & Timber at Fastmarkets, joins The Lumber Word to break down a North American lumber market where supply, imports, species and demand are all shifting at the same time. The conversation digs into falling Canadian and European imports, changing U.S. lumber availability, Southern Pine and western-species substitution, sawmill residuals and what the headline lumber numbers may be missing. Then Dustin takes us into one of the biggest economic stories affecting housing: the enormous investment flowing into AI and data centers. He explains how that boom can compete with residential construction for capital, labor and resources, influence inflation and interest rates, and ultimately affect housing and lumber demand. The episode closes with the indicators Dustin believes lumber participants should be watching — and a moving tribute from Matt to longtime lumberman Dick Opperman. Same industry. Deeper conversations. TIMELINE 00:00 — Where is the lumber market right now? The crew opens with inventories, falling prices, freight costs and slowing seasonal demand. 05:03 — AI and lumber? A preview of what's coming Dustin explains why seemingly unrelated parts of the economy eventually intersect with lumber. ~08:00 — Canadian duties and the supply question What changing Canadian lumber duties could mean for production, curtailments and SPF returning to the U.S. market. 13:17 — Lumber imports are falling The Fastmarkets data on Canadian and offshore imports and why apparent supply doesn't necessarily equal actual consumption. 15:23 — Canada and Europe disappear from the supply picture Dustin breaks down where billions of board feet have shifted and why the numbers need context. 18:06 — Who benefits from fewer imports? U.S. producers, Doug Fir, Southern Pine and the changing competitive landscape. 19:11 — Is species substitution coming back? Matt discusses SPF, Hem-Fir, Doug Fir and how modern purchasing systems changed the industry's willingness to substitute species. 21:25 — Southern Yellow Pine's changing position Why the SYP market can tell a very different story from the lumber futures screen. 25:05 — Sawmill residuals: why chips and sawdust matter Dustin explains the economics of residuals and why they're an important part of keeping a sawmill profitable. 34:08 — MAIN EVENT: AI, data centers and housing The conversation turns to the enormous capital flowing into AI infrastructure. 35:34 — Why lumber people need to pay attention to AI Dustin explains how AI investment is contributing to broader economic growth and why that matters to lumber. ~37:00 — Data centers competing with housing Capital, labor and other resources get pulled toward massive data-center projects. 38:42 — Can AI help keep interest rates higher? Dustin connects growth, inflation, Treasury yields, fiscal deficits and the AI investment boom. 40:12 — The AI wealth effect How stock-market gains may be supporting higher-income consumers and helping create a floor under housing demand. 42:00 — Housing affordability & cash buyers Mortgage rates, demographics and why some buyers can still participate despite historically difficult affordability. 44:02 — Work from home changed housing demand Dustin discusses mobility and how remote work has permanently altered where some people can live. 46:03 — What happens next for lumber? Matt summarizes the pressures hitting the industry and the potential for volatility. 47:04 — Remembering Dick Opperman Matt gives a heartfelt tribute to a longtime lumberman, friend and mentor — and a reminder to thank the people who helped you along the way. 49:37 — What lumber people should be watching Dustin discusses closures, operating rates, downstream indicators and other data beyond daily lumber prices. 51:00 — New Fastmarkets indicators & market sentiment A look at new tools designed to better understand where market participants think conditions may be heading. 52:03 — Closing thoughts with Dustin Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Dustin Jalbert Economist/ Director, Wood Products and Timber Fastmarkets dustin.jalbert@fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

September 25, 2026Episode 18449 min

EP 184: How Random Lengths Really Reports the Lumber Market — Mary Hansen

What goes into a Random Lengths lumber price assessment? Mary Hansen of Fastmarkets Random Lengths joins The Lumber Word for a behind-the-scenes look at some of the methodology behind lumber market reporting. Mary explains the difference between a reporter and an economist, how market information is gathered through multiple channels, why confirmed transactions carry weight, and how volume, timing and market context factor into an assessment. We also dig into some of the Random Lengths data and tools subscribers may not realize they're already getting — including European 2x4's; spruce pricing, Southern Pine Prime adders, historical data, dashboard pricing and alerts — plus what Mary is currently hearing across the lumber market. Same industry. Deeper conversations. TIMELINE 00:00 — Meet Mary Hansen of Fastmarkets Random Lengths Mary's path from journalism to mortgages and eventually commodity reporting. 05:28 — What does a Random Lengths reporter actually do? Mary explains her markets, reporting days and the process of gathering market information. 07:25 — Reporter vs. economist Why reporting and assessing today's market is very different from forecasting where prices are going. 09:08 — How the Random Lengths methodology works Confirmed transactions, volume, recency, discounts, one-off trades and the hierarchy of market information. 13:05 — Turning all that information into assessments How Mary organizes the data, works through individual items and coordinates with other reporters. 16:04 — Inside a major Random Lengths reporting day What happens behind the scenes as the team works toward publication. 29:30 — What Random Lengths subscribers may be missing Ashley starts digging into information that's already available but may be overlooked. 29:52 — European 2x4 16' spruce pricing Where to find the European spruce assessment and why it matters to North American traders. 32:17 — Southern Pine Prime adders & new assessments Mary points out another piece of market data hiding in plain sight. 35:45 — Using the Fastmarkets dashboard Historical prices, exports, charts and ways subscribers can use the online data. 36:45 — Prices can hit the dashboard before the PDF A useful discovery for anyone waiting for the traditional Random Lengths publication. 40:05 — What else comes with Random Lengths? The broader suite of reports, analysis, international coverage, forecasts and market information. 42:52 — Daily Southern Yellow Pine pricing & alerts Using the dashboard and email alerts to follow daily SYP pricing. 44:45 — What Mary is hearing in today's lumber market Mill discipline, freight and diesel costs, U.S.–Canada trade and just-in-time buying. 47:08 — The relationship side of the lumber business What surprised Mary most after entering the industry. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Mary Hansen Editorial Team Leader Fastmarkets Mary.Hansen@fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

September 18, 2026Episode 18341 min

EP 183: Nobody Wants Lumber — Even With Inventories Running on Fumes

The lumber market is heading into Q4 with an unusual setup: inventories across the supply chain appear extremely lean, yet buyers still aren't willing to take much risk. In Episode #183, Ashley, Matt, Gregg and Charles dig into what's actually trading versus published prices, growing price disparities between mills, tightening truck availability, rail issues and the increasingly important role of freight. The group also breaks down housing starts, builder headwinds, interest rates and what declining demand could mean for mill production and lumber prices into year-end. With 2x4 looking increasingly vulnerable while several other items remain historically expensive, the conversation turns to the real question for Q4: What should you own, what should you sell, and where is the opportunity? Timeline 00:00 Housing & the Q4 Setup 02:03 Lumber Inventories Running Low 04:03 Less Lumber Than Last Year? 06:06 The Hedging Problem 08:04 Trucking Gets Ugly Again 11:07 Hem-Fir, SPF & Real Prices 13:05 Futures vs. Cash 14:23 Huge Mill Price Disparities 15:37 Are Contract Buyers Overpaying? 16:24 Southern Pine Pricing 19:04 Freight Becomes the Wild Card 22:00 Hem-Fir vs. SPF 24:13 What Changes This Market? 28:20 Rates & Housing Affordability 30:39 Are Builders Slowing Down? 32:04 The Bearish Q4 Case 34:25 Navigating Q4 35:28 Where Opportunities Still Exist 36:21 Apathy Defines the Market 36:39 What to Own & What to Sell 38:06 Marry, Date or Dump 39:03 Where Pine Prices Could Go 39:44 Final Thoughts Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

September 11, 2026Episode 18241 min

EP 182: The Lumber Market Is Strongly Sideways

The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now. With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber? Timeline 00:00 Bart Charles joins the show 01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand 04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”? 06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing 09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce 13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update 15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs 17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here? 19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways” 21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities 23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums? 29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk 31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability 32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs 34:28 Are traders still short lumber? 35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine 37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme 39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt 39:51 Locking in Q1 margins 40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now 41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge” Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com Guest Bart Charles BCharles@shamrockbm.com

September 4, 2026Episode 18147 min

EP 181: Are the Funds Now the Smart Money in Lumber?

Is the lumber market finally trying to put in a bottom—or is this just another bounce before seasonal weakness takes over? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles break down the latest action across SPF, Southern Yellow Pine, Hem-Fir, studs, and CME lumber futures. The guys discuss the growing disconnect between September futures and the cash market, the possibility of taking delivery against September, and why some buyers may want to start covering needs rather than waiting for the perfect bottom. Charles takes a deep dive into Southern Yellow Pine, where sharp price swings, tighter production control, freight volatility, and execution risk are making the market increasingly difficult to trade. The conversation also turns to Southern timberland, falling pulpwood demand, mill closures, and what cheap Southern fiber could mean for lumber production longer term. Then Ashley raises a bigger question: Who is really the smart money in lumber today—the industry or the funds? The guys examine how large systematic and trend-following funds can stay with positions far longer than physical traders expect, ignore traditional ideas like cost of production, and potentially push lumber much farther in either direction than the industry thinks makes sense. The episode wraps with signs of bottoming in futures, narrow Southern Pine, SPF dimension and studs, the possibility of a trading bounce into September expiration, and where November futures could run into resistance. Timeline 00:00 – Opening, Lumber Word merch & potential Traders Market appearance 02:50 – Cash market update and seasonal weakness 04:20 – September vs. November futures and the cash/futures discount 06:30 – Could taking September CME delivery make sense? 08:00 – Is SPF beginning to find a trading bottom? 09:00 – Stud values and major relative-value opportunities 11:10 – Southern Yellow Pine: 4-inch strength and shrinking discount windows 12:45 – Pine volatility, freight costs and huge moves in wides 14:00 – How well is the CME Southern Pine contract tracking cash? 15:45 – Short covering or the beginning of a real market bounce? 20:00 – Why buyers with business on the books may want to start covering 22:00 – Market headwinds: tariffs, mortgage rates and housing demand 25:30 – Seasonal weakness, freight risk and the importance of execution 28:20 – "No edge, no hedge" and finding an advantage in today's market 32:15 – What is happening to Southern U.S. timberland? 33:20 – Cheap Southern fiber, pulp mill closures and long-term implications 38:45 – Industry vs. funds: Who is really the smart money? 40:00 – Why large funds can push lumber beyond industry expectations 42:10 – Cost of production, shutdown economics and lost Canadian production 43:15 – Bottoming signals across futures, Pine, SPF and studs 44:30 – November futures resistance and the September/November spread 46:00 – Closing thoughts Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

August 28, 2026Episode 18052 min

EP 180: $500 Lumber? The Market Is Sending a Message

The lumber market is getting interesting again—and the signals aren’t exactly lining up. Ashley, Gregg, and Matt break down a market where demand remains “punky,” western species flailing, studs are showing slight signs of life after deep counters, and lumber futures are trading at a steep discount to cash. The big question: Is November lumber really headed toward $500—or is the futures market getting too bearish? Gregg lays out the technical case for why $500 is at least possible, while Matt sees real value developing at current levels and argues that some of the best buying opportunities may be showing up right now. Meanwhile, Ashley asks the question every trader should be asking: Where is the edge? The guys dig into forward pricing, inventory strategy, hedging when the board is at a discount, Canadian tariffs, shrinking contract business, and why 2027 could bring more open-market buying—and potentially more volatility. The takeaway? This probably isn’t the market to be a hero. Stay liquid, turn inventory, buy value, sell the overvalued stuff, and be ready when the market finally shows its hand. 1.Timeline 00:00 — Episode #180: What’s the market telling us? 01:37 — Housing demand remains “punky” 05:00 — Western species bounce and the buying starts 09:20 — Can lumber really rally into the fall? 11:45 — Is November futures getting too cheap? 14:25 — Forward lumber pricing and the opportunity for buyers 17:00 — Where is the edge in today’s lumber market? 18:10 — September/November futures positioning 19:30 — The $500 lumber bomb gets dropped 21:25 — Canadian tariffs, mill economics and supply 25:00 — Should buyers start putting out aggressive Q4/Q1 numbers? 26:45 — How do you manage inventory if lumber falls to $500? 29:00 — Carry less inventory, hedge actively and stay opportunistic 30:20 — What happens if November trades at a huge discount to cash? 33:00 — Could 2027 bring fewer contracts and more open-market buying? 37:30 — Less contract business could mean more volatility 40:15 — Looking ahead to the 2027 lumber market 44:40 — Ashley’s lesson: You can get long faster than you think 46:35 — The low-inventory strategy heading into fall 49:00 — What lumber items still have value—and liquidity? 50:20 — $500 lumber: prediction or just a possibility? 52:25 — Are studs signaling the next cash-market rally? 53:45 — Matt’s game plan: If cheap 2x4 shows up, buy it 53:55 — Southern Yellow Pine starts bouncing off the lows Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

August 21, 2026Episode 17957 min

Episode 179: Don’t Sell the Bottom

The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom? This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast. The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half. They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners. But the real conversation is about risk. Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity? Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell. Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom. Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter. Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

August 14, 2026Episode 17849 min

EP 178: Is It Time to Buy? | Sig Thoma on Housing, OSB, Futures & the Next Market Move

The lumber market just dropped roughly $100 in three weeks - but is the selloff creating the next big buying opportunity? In Episode #178 of The Lumber Word, industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Ashley, Gregg, and Matt for a wide-ranging conversation about what's really happening beneath the surface of the lumber market. Inventories are getting lean, cash prices are falling well below published levels, and CME lumber futures are carrying a major discount. Sig brings a broader perspective to the conversation, including a fascinating look at a massive lumber buyer whose sheds were nearly empty - a sign that the industry may be running much leaner than many realize. The crew dives into Southern Yellow Pine, Canadian SPF, Western species, OSB, European lumber, housing and mill profitability. Sig explains why the OSB market has effectively become two different markets, with dramatically different pricing between the U.S. South and West. Then the conversation gets deeper. Why aren't more sawmills using CME lumber futures to lock in profitable sales? Could increased futures participation improve price discovery across the entire lumber industry? And could a transparent U.S.-based futures market eventually become part of the argument surrounding Canadian anti-dumping duties and how lumber's true market price is established? Sig also breaks down the housing problem: mortgage applications have fallen sharply from their June highs, new-home sales remain well below historical peaks, and affordability continues to constrain demand. The episode finishes with a fascinating discussion about pulp capacity and something most lumber buyers rarely think about: sawmill byproducts. Chips, sawdust, shavings and residual values can materially change sawmill economics - and losing pulp outlets could ultimately influence lumber production itself. Is this simply an August lumber correction - or is the market setting up for its next major trade? Timeline 00:00 - Lumber drops roughly $100 & the CME discount 06:00 - Cash lumber, mill pricing & where buyers are hiding 10:40 - Sig's incredible look at extremely lean inventories 14:25 - Southern Yellow Pine economics & Canadian SPF losses 15:00 - Sig breaks down the strange OSB market 17:20 - European lumber arrivals & Eastern SPF 20:00 - Western species vs. CME futures 21:00 - Why aren't more sawmills using lumber futures? 25:00 - Forward pricing opportunities & multifamily 27:00 - Where could the lumber market finally bottom? 29:20 - What happens if you actually take CME delivery? 31:00 - Sig on futures culture & changing the lumber industry 32:20 - Housing, mortgage applications & affordability 35:50 - Southern sawmills, pulp capacity & mill economics 39:45 - Canadian lumber duties delayed 41:00 - Could CME pricing challenge the anti-dumping argument? 44:00 - Manufacturing, tariffs & deglobalization 46:30 - A wild real-world CME delivery story 48:15 - Sig closes with a classic story & market warning Keywords Lumber Market, Lumber Prices, Sig Thoma, CME Lumber Futures, Lumber Futures, SPF Lumber, Canadian Lumber, Southern Yellow Pine, OSB Prices, Housing Market, Mortgage Rates, Sawmills, Lumber Duties, Anti-Dumping Duties, Softwood Lumber, Lumber Trading, Building Materials, Wood Products, Lumber Industry, The Lumber Word Podcast

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