The Julia La Roche Show

Hosted by Julia La Roche

Business InvestingInterviews guests

Website RSS feed LinkedIn YouTube

Episodes

425

Latest episode

Oct 2026

Language

About the show

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Listen to episodes

60 recent

October 27, 2026Episode 42542 min

#425 Axel Merk: I Sat Down With Kevin Warsh — What the Fed Is Really Up To and Where Gold Goes Next

Axel Merk, founder and CIO of Merk Investments, which manages about $2.5 billion, joins Julia ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. He explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s goal of “removing a dose of accommodation” means a tightening bias without a sledgehammer. He also explains why gold has fallen during the Iran war: markets treat it as a temporary supply shock that pushes real rates higher. And he describes the decoupling he’s watching for that could free gold from the conflict. Merk, who met with Warsh at the Fed in August, says Warsh has been consistent and is trying to pull the Fed back from micromanaging the economy and from heavy forward guidance. He also describes the institutional pushback Warsh faces. He breaks down the four kinds of gold buyers and sees near-zero odds of a hike this week. He warns that the AI debt binge could eventually force lower rates. And he argues that AI’s massive capital needs are leveling the playing field for gold miners, which he calls some of the cheapest assets out there. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: https://www.merkinvestments.com/ https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps: Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Axel Merk 1:05 The big picture: Warsh’s “dose of accommodation” 3:17 Iran, the Israeli election and the midterms 5:27 Why gold fell during the Iran war 7:49 Will gold decouple from Iran? 9:50 The four types of gold buyers 12:18 Who is Kevin Warsh? Meeting him at the Fed 15:16 What Fed independence really means 17:40 Forward guidance: referee, not player 20:24 What it’s like in the room 21:07 Why not just abolish the Fed? 24:18 What markets look like with a narrower Fed 27:34 Blaming the Fed for populism 29:56 Warsh’s cat-herding challenge 31:18 Hike or hold this week? 33:26 Volatility, cash and how to size risk 36:03 Why he’s heavy in gold miners 39:13 Parting thought: invest in your health The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 24, 2026Episode 42433 min

#424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome to The Wrap 1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump” 3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder 5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud 7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25% 09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing? 10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell 13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy 14:19 Annaly back to book value 15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries 19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds 20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash 22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold? 23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high 24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials 26:43 How income investing works 28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about 32:00 What to watch next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 22, 2026Episode 4231 hr 4 min

#423 Jordi Visser: Why the AI Bears Are Wrong — and the One Asset He’d Bet On Right Now

Long-time macro investor Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs, makes his in-studio debut with a bold message: the only macro force that matters right now is artificial intelligence. He explains why the economy has become far less rate-sensitive since the iPhone launched in 2007, and why Anthropic and OpenAI’s leap from $30 billion to roughly $170 billion in combined annual recurring revenue marks the start of agentic commerce, with personal AI agents managing more of our lives. He lays out his “bank-pocalypse” thesis, where agents and crypto compress bank valuations by moving money to better yields instantly. He also argues that many veteran macro voices are wrong about AI because they don’t use it. Visser traces his own shift from perma-bear to tech optimist, from closing out his book before Lehman in 2008 to a life-changing trip to Silicon Valley’s Singularity University. He makes the bull case for agentic compute, names hacking and government pushback as the biggest risks, and closes with his most contrarian call: crypto, which he sees as a 100-to-1 long shot that could be the best-performing asset of the next year even if the S&P goes nowhere. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/jvisserlabs YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserlabs Website: https://ai.22vresearch.com/ Substack: substack.com/@visserlabs Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: the beginning of agentic commerce 0:42 Welcome Jordi Visser 1:15 The only macro that matters: AI 4:14 Why the old playbook broke after 2007 6:44 AI’s iPhone moment: personal agents arrive 10:07 How big is agentic commerce? 10:36 Two economies: AI-native vs. enterprise 12:28 The “bank-pocalypse” thesis 14:01 An agentic run on the banks 17:38 What a personal AI agent does for you 18:56 The generational divide on AI 24:50 2008: closing out before Lehman 26:38 From perma-bear to “no more recessions” 28:26 Silicon Valley and the singularity 31:04 What he tells his kids about AI 32:31 Why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade 35:43 All moats are disappearing 37:37 Why AI is so emotional for people 41:08 Earnings up 30%, jobs at zero 43:08 “AI victim status” and the doom narrative 45:38 Climbing the ladder at Morgan Stanley 48:08 Lifelong learning and longevity 50:00 The bull case: agentic compute 52:30 Is the AI debt a problem? 55:00 The biggest risks: hacking and government pushback 58:44 His contrarian call for next year: crypto 1:02:27 Why the S&P could be flat a year from now 1:03:27 The Peter Lynch lesson and a 100-to-1 long shot The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 20, 2026Episode 4221 hr 14 min

#422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50%

David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring , says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/ X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie Timestamps: 0:00 Intro: Protect your capital 0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg 1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy 6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect 10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium 13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts 18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008 23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds 26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous? 31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went 36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived 37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern 41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair 42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown 45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations 50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk 53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve 54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure 1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown 1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave 1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries 1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 17, 2026Episode 42134 min

#421 Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back 00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses” 02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing? 03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war 07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path? 08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again 09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices 11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference 13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected 15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor 17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court 18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027 20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage? 21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine 24:36 The AI reset and circular finance 26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages 29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly 31:34 What Whalen is watching next The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 15, 2026Episode 42042 min

#420 Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/ Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle 0:19 Welcome Larry McDonald 1:20 Learning from mentors and “cage matches” 2:06 Why AI data center financing is breaking down 4:53 Convertible bonds: the “last saloon” 8:31 The ConvertBond.com story 9:09 Credit warnings: canceled IPOs, CCCs and leveraged loans 11:15 The million-dollar bet: three hikes or three cuts? 11:49 The consumer takes four or five left hooks 15:13 Why the Fed is faking its hiking cycle 16:28 Record highs, but an internal market crash 21:02 Passive investing and the convergence trade 23:19 What could trigger the convergence: AI capex and the midterms 24:43 The case for gold and silver 27:28 Silver, solar and the rotation out of tech The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 10, 2026Episode 41937 min

#419 Chris Whalen: Mortgage Funeral, No Bond Rally & the Deficit Washington Won’t Talk About

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances 03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue 04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale 07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold? 09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back 10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market 11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call 14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep 15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit 18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”? 19:40 – Record S&P highs vs. AI bubble fears 23:05 – Why financials are “dead in the water” 24:26 – The mortgage industry “funeral”: downsizing and consolidation 26:27 – Viewer Q: Where are mortgage rates and home prices headed? 28:55 – Viewer Q: Should Congress hike capital gains taxes? 30:50 – Viewer Q: Should you wait to buy energy until the Iran war ends? 33:58 – What Chris is watching next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 8, 2026Episode 41834 min

#418 Ray Dalio on the Risky Period for Investors, Bubble Warnings, and a Coming Debt Squeeze

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/ Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors: Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Website: https://www.principles.com/ X: https://x.com/RayDalio LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum 1:03 Dalio's five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 1971 6:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force 7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6? 9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits 12:38 Is a debt "heart attack" coming? Dalio's timeline 16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns 17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 1929 21:55 How Dalio is positioned: short debt, focus on diversification 22:30 Why gold belongs in a portfolio (5–15%) 24:35 Bitcoin: why Dalio holds only about 1% 25:47 Where to diversify: AI adopters, ASEAN, Singapore, UAE, Europe, TIPS 29:00 How the cycle plays out, and how to prepare 31:25 What makes a country successful? Education, civility, and avoiding conflict 33:54 Closing The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 6, 2026Episode 41757 min

#417 Nick Nemeth: The Biggest Turn in My Lifetime, Why Credit Contagion Could Hit Everything

Is private credit the next 2008? Nick Nemeth, author and publisher of Mispriced Assets, joins Julia La Roche to explain why he sees systemic risk building in private credit, and why the real danger may sit inside life insurers' $10 trillion balance sheets. Nick explains how Dodd-Frank pushed risk out of the banks and into asset-manager-owned insurers like Athene. He says defaults are already running above 2008 levels, AAA-rated CLOs may not be as safe as advertised, and opaque Level 3 marks and 20–30x leverage could hide big losses. He also covers what this means for annuity holders, why regulators are falling short, his public fight over Cliffwater, how contagion could spread through reinsurance, and whether the next bailout could be big enough without breaking the dollar. He ends with bold 12-month predictions, including AAA CLO defaults, an insurance industry shakeout, and Kevin Warsh's first real test at the Fed. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Substack: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/ X: https://x.com/NickNemo17 Timestamps: 0:00 Credit stress before the Iran War 0:23 Welcome Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets 1:07 Macro view: a highly levered system 4:20 Money printing, inflation and the dollar 7:00 Private credit defaults are rising 10:23 Rising yields: defaults above 2008 levels 11:46 Why this is systemic, and how it compares to 2008 14:21 AAA CLOs "safer than the U.S. government"? 17:28 How we got here: Dodd-Frank pushed risk outside the banks 19:33 The insurance connection 26:30 Is your annuity safe? 27:18 Are regulators asleep? 29:25 Nick's biggest worry: bad marks and extreme leverage 34:42 Ratings agencies and the Cliffwater fight 39:33 The fix: mark-to-market and transparency 40:58 How credit contagion could spread 46:49 Why isn't the market down 20%? 50:52 12-month predictions: AAA CLO defaults and an insurance shakeout 53:09 Kevin Warsh's first test 55:23 Where to find Nick The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

October 3, 2026Episode 41633 min

#416 Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials

The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap 0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high 1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats? 2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November? 4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted 6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction 7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability 9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry 10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy 11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit 13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play) 14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L 17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few 18:34 – Is a recession ahead? 18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period 21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants? 23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit? 25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money 27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal 29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings 31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary 31:58 – Wrap-up The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Is this your show?

Claim this listing to keep it up to date, reach guests who want to pitch you, and manage bookings with Guestify.

Claim this listing

More Business podcasts

The Bottom Line

Alexander Spencer

BusinessInterviews guests