The IRF Podcast

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100

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May 2026

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Insights from some of the world's top independent investment research providers spanning a range of countries, asset classes and themes.

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May 17, 2026Episode 11327 min

"The Resilience of the East Asian Economies"

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey of East Asia Econ explains that there are two terms of trades shocks playing through in East Asia at present, one positive, one negative. He points out that the A.I. boom and the strength of the global semiconductor sector have helped the stock markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to reach new record highs recently, despite the Gulf war and the oil price shock. With respect to China, Paul discusses the evidence that suggests the Chinese economy is stabilising and should pick up once there’s a US-Iranian peace agreement and the oil market starts to normalise. In Japan, Paul says there are expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to combat the rise in inflationary pressures, thereby helping to support a stronger yen exchange rate, but this is not a done deal. In South Korea and Taiwan, Paul highlights how the growth-inflation trade off is influencing monetary policy and could result in a strengthening of the Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar versus the US dollar. Paul Cavey has been living in East Asia for over twenty years – in Taipei, Beijing, Hong Kong and Tokyo. Paul is currently living in Taiwan and is fluent in Mandarin Chinese. He has been analysing the Economies of the East Asian region, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously, Paul has been the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality research and thematic analysis of Macroeconomic and Market Issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.”

March 6, 2026Episode 11233 min

“China: A Generational Pivot?”, Dinny McMahon, Trivium China

David Osman of IRF is joined by Dinny McMahon, the Head of China Markets Research at Trivium China. ----more---- In this podcast, Dinny McMahon assesses China’s economic policies and the underlying state of the economy, including the ongoing deep-rooted problems in the property sector. Dinny then discusses the extent to which China might continue to fail to achieve its objective of a consumption-led growth model in the next few years. He questions the appropriateness of China’s fiscal policy and monetary stance, given the extent to which the economy has been flirting with deflation for the past three years. Dinny also reviews the progress that China has made with respect to the internationalization of the renminbi, as the dollar loses some of its global status. In addition, he notes the improving performance of Chinese equities since the lows in 2024 and discusses the various factors that are making the mainland stock market more attractive to investors. He concludes with a discussion of China’s main objectives for the period of the next 5-Year Plan. Before joining Trivium China in 2020, Dinny McMahon was a Fellow at Marco Polo, a China-focused think-tank. Dinny is also a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and an Economic Advisor at ShoreVest Partners. He is a former Banking & Financial Markets Analyst at Enodo Economics and a former journalist who was based in China for many years for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. In addition, Dinny is the author of ‘China’s Great Wall of Debt’, which was published in 2018. Trivium China’s policy research team produce readable, primary source-driven analysis on China's political economy. Trivium takes a unique approach to China analysis, combining deep expertise, primary-source research and on-the-ground China experience. Their mission is to ensure their readers never miss a critical policy development.

March 1, 2026Episode 11115 min

“The US Economic Outlook: How to Cope with Full Employment”, Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics

David Osman of IRF is joined by Carl Weinberg the Founder, Managing Director and Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics. In this podcast Carl Weinberg assesses the latest data and discusses the risks to the outlook for the US economy, with particular reference to the impact on economic growth and consumer price inflation of a labour market that has reached the level of full employment. Carl then reviews the risks and the uncertain impact on the US economy and the rest of the world of the Trump Administration’s tariff measures, given the erratic nature of the tariffs and their illegality. In addition, Carl discusses the conduct of US monetary policy and the outlook for US interest rates with reference to the prospective changes in the Chair of the Federal Reserve in May. Prior to founding High Frequency Economics in 1988, Carl Weinberg was the Chief Economist at Shearson Lehman Brothers. Carl has also worked at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris as a member of the economic forecasting unit. He currently teaches a graduate course in international finance at New York University. High Frequency Economics (HFE) provides sophisticated investors with insights on the global economy and financial markets. HFE produces unbiased and provocative analysis that assists the investment decisions of institutional investors.

January 28, 2026Episode 11020 min

“The Medium-Term Outlook for World Commodity Investments”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM Group

David Osman of IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group. ----more---- In this podcast Jeffrey Christian provides an informative rundown on the outlook for commodity investments in 2026 and beyond. He begins with an assessment of the prospects for the demand, supply and prices of precious metals, both in the near term and in the longer run. In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices uncertain this year, not least because of potential geopolitical developments in Venezuela, the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the current erratic nature of US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively steady, while natural gas prices have some upside potential. Jeffrey then discusses his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets. The episode concludes with an assessment of the various factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and Jeffrey explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have a substantial position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2026 and beyond. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.

December 12, 2025Episode 10921 min

“Scaling the Crumbling Cliff of Worry”, Ron William, RW Advisory

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- This podcast assesses the longer-term cyclical factors that indicate global financial markets could reach a major turning point in 2026 or later in this decade. Ron discusses the outlook for inflation and the various elements that could create an echo of the high-inflation era of the 1970s. This has further bullish implications for the prices of gold and silver. Ron then explains his concerns about the rapidly rising A.I.-related demand for energy, which is now outstripping the predicted supply trends. He also assesses the outlook for interest rates, government bond yield and world stock markets, before concluding with a discussion of the prospects for the US dollar and some other key currencies in the foreign exchange markets. Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research, trading strategies and insightful non-consensus ideas for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.

November 30, 2025Episode 10825 min

“A Resurgent Japan and the Economic Outlook for East Asia”, Paul Cavey, East Asia Econ

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical and structural themes that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. He explains why he thinks that the overall deflationary forces within the Chinese economy may be easing and why there is scope for some cautious optimism about China’s economic outlook relative to the current downbeat consensus expectations. Paul then highlights the key issues that are impacting on the main currencies in the region, noting the significance of the weakness of the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen in recent years. He goes on to discuss the two shocks that have had an impact on Japan’s economy, the US tariff shock and the pick-up in the annual rate of Japanese inflation. He assesses what these shocks could mean in terms of the policies of the new prime minister, with respect to Japan’s interest rates and the exchange rate, given the more stimulative stance of fiscal policy. Paul then discusses the impact of the global A.I. trend on the regional semiconductor sector in general, and on the Taiwanese economy and the South Korean economy in particular. Paul Cavey has been analysing the economies of East Asia, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously Paul was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

October 26, 2025Episode 10739 min

“Markets, Hegemonic War Cycles and the Threat of World War 3”, David Murrin, Global Forecaster

David Osman of IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster. ----more---- In this podcast they discuss David Murrin's ‘5 Stages of Empire’ model and the influence of longer run cyclical trends on geopolitical risks, political factors, the world economic outlook and the prospects for the global financial markets. David assesses the deep-seated problems in the USA and the damage that President Trump’s tariffs and other policies are doing to the country’s international reputation. He points out that this has major implications for the value of the US dollar and its role as the world’s reserve currency. David also explains the basis for his dramatic views about the dangers of Chinese expansionism in northeast Asia and the rising risks of a wider war in the Middle East, as well as the potential for an escalation of Russia’s hostile actions in Europe. David says this has put us on the cusp of World War 3, pitting the West against hostile actions by the “Axis of Autocracy”. Meanwhile, he points out that the unfolding of a commodity super cycle will have a profound impact on global inflation, bond markets and cryptocurrencies. David notes that this helps to explain the recent sharp increase in the price of gold into overbought territory. In these circumstances, David sees the prospects for world stock markets becoming increasingly problematic, particularly the outlook for the US stock market and its dominant AI investment theme. David Murrin has done more than most to link long-run historic trends and human behaviour to successful investment decisions. David is a polymath who is renowned for his development of a unique set of behavioural models whilst at JP Morgan, which have been used to predict financial markets in an effective and profitable way. These models provided the foundation for his multi-decade career in the hedge fund industry. Global Forecaster was established by David in 2019 to provide a unique, top-down, geopolitical overview and actionable real-time market analysis within a risk framework, and with a focus on profitable short-term trading opportunities, as well as longer-term asset allocation decisions in the global financial markets.

October 16, 2025Episode 10629 min

“Risks & Mispriced Opportunities in the Global Financial Markets”, Helen Thomas, Blonde Money

David Osman of IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money. ----more---- In this podcast they discuss the increasing focus on fiscal policy relative to monetary policy in the highly-indebted developed world and the consequent growth in the importance of political risk analysis. Helen then assesses some of the geopolitical, political and economic risk factors that will influence the medium-term outlook for the global financial markets. Focusing on Japan, France, Germany, the UK and the USA, she highlights various factors that point towards the mispricing of risks and opportunities in the bond, equity and currency markets, as well as the prospects for the gold price. Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. Blonde Money was established in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm to bring together the worlds of politics and finance. Helen and her team analyse and monitor mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU.

September 17, 2025Episode 10517 min

“Is US Economic Policy on a Sustainable Track?”, Dimitris Valatsas, Auroa Macro Strategies

David Osman of IRF is joined by Dimitris Valatsas, the Chief Economist at Auroa Macro Strategies. ----more---- In this podcast they discuss the prospects for US economy and the financial markets. Dimitris considers the impact of the Trump Administration’s immigration policies on a weakening labour market. He also assesses the outlook for US monetary policy with particular reference to the prospective erosion of the central bank’s independence and what this would mean for inflation and interest rates. Dimitris reviews the legal challenge to President Trump’s tariff policies and what this could mean for fiscal policy, given the projected high level of the federal budget deficit. He then discusses the outlook for the US dollar and concludes with an assessment of the importance of the A.I. investment theme for the economy and the stock market. Dimitris Valatsas has over a decade of experience advising asset managers, hedge funds, family offices, and other financial institutions on macroeconomic and market developments, focusing on the USA and Europe. Aurora Macro Strategies provides actionable insights on global macroeconomics, geopolitics and policies. The AMS team has decades of experience advising investors across developed and emerging markets. Their research and advisory process is organised around four central pillars: Neutrality, Confidentiality, Forward Thinking analysis and a Diversity of viewpoints.

September 14, 2025Episode 10423 min

“Golden Opportunities in the Commodity Markets”, James Burdass, Commodity Intelligence

David Osman of IRF is joined by James Burdass, the Managing Partner at Commodity Intelligence to discuss the evolving role of commodities in a global multi-asset portfolio. ----more---- In doing so, he assesses the importance for investors of the way that the global markets for many individual commodities are fracturing and becoming more fragmented with regional factors becoming more important. James says heightened geopolitical risk factors, a proliferation of US tariffs, distortions to international trade and disruptions to global supply chains have created a “New World Order” that is having a significant impact on the nature of investment in the commodity markets. He discusses what this means for investors in precious metals and the oil and gas markets, as well as some of the key base metals and soft commodities. Commodity Intelligence LLP was established in 2008. James Burdass became the Managing Partner and owner of the business in 2024, having previously been the Chairman since 2021. James’s has a career that has spanned more than 25 years in commodities research, including 14 years on the buy side. Commodity Intelligence provides specialist advice on Global Commodity Markets and Equities. Their approach is based on the use of Artificial Intelligence to source information, predominantly from the internet, to identify key themes before traditional financial media.