The InvestSense Podcast

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261

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Nov 2026

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InvestSense discuss the latest in portfolio management, economics and investments while joined by leading voices from around the world. Learn more about InvestSense: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-our-solutions Subscribe to our weekly newsletter here: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast&utm_medium=Weekly

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November 9, 20268 min

The week the index stopped being the market

The more interesting story was underneath the indices. A larger Democrat sweep than polls implied took the perceived odds of escalation in Iran sharply lower; Brent fell roughly 9% in a session to near US$94, close to 20% below its late-October high. Then investors worked through what Democrat-controlled state houses mean for data-centre approvals, and the AI complex repriced: the Nasdaq fell 5% in Thursday's US session, Nvidia 8.7%, Micron 15%.What that produced was not just the very visible sell-off in the largest companies in the world but a rotation below the surface. In fact the dispersion inside indices was remarkable in the last five trading days and builds on a trend that we have seen over the last few months. Locally, the Small Ordinaries returned 1.6% having been up by 4% at some mid-week while the big miners and banks were flat. Ex-20 ex-resources strategies were up by more than 3% which is where the local version of the rotation trade appears to reside. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/silver-linings-or-silver-clouds Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

November 2, 202613 min

October in review: CPI above forecast and diversification earned its keep

Australian underlying inflation came in well above the RBA’s forecast at 4.3% over the year. AI is real, but so is the borrowing behind it is the risk, the warning lights are amber rather than red, and this is not an environment in which to reach for yield in credit. Lastly, diversification is earning its keep: October's best outcomes came from infrastructure, bonds and the parts of the equity market nobody wanted in June. Get access to the charts: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/october-in-review-cpi-above-forecast-and-diversification-earned-its-keep Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

October 26, 202612 min

Every unhappy economy is unhappy in its own way

The local story this week was inflation, but the interesting part is how local and global influences are being blamed depending on one’s perspective. Deputy RBA Governor Andrew Hauser intimated that inflation is getting worse and that this week's print would likely land on the higher side of expectations — a domestic problem, framed principally domestically with a focus on the structure of the economy. However, the Government thinks this is much more to do with the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly the week's biggest corporate headline locally, NextDC's data-centre rollout being held up by planning, is the Australian face of a thoroughly global story about how much debt is being used to build AI infrastructure. As Tolstoy opened Anna Karenina “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way” and every nation from China to the UK to the US and France seem to be grappling with ostensibly local imbalances in their economies. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/every-unhappy-economy-is-unhappy-in-its-own-way Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

October 19, 202611 min

Owning something different finally paid off

Australia outperformed this week. The ASX 300 rose 0.9% while the Nasdaq shed 4.5% — and around 6% over the past fortnight — with emerging markets dragged lower by Korea and its large chipmakers. The S&P 500 finished roughly flat, and markets with more defensive exposures, the UK as well as Australia, edged higher. Most of the damage came in a single week of accelerating pessimism about the AI trade, and some of the places where defence has shown up are less obvious than the usual suspects. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/asx-up-while-nasdaq-falls-4-5-and-the-ai-trade-becomes-a-credit-story Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

October 12, 202610 min

Quiet at home, loud everywhere else

Australia had a thin data week and a noisy global one. Westpac's consumer confidence index fell from 84.4 to 80.4, with mortgages costing more after the Reserve Bank's recent tightening, a reminder of where the shift in interest rate environment is biting the most. The dollar tried and failed to clear 70 US cents, finishing near 69.8. The local ten-year moved the opposite way to most of the world, easing from about 5.44% on futures to 5.33% by Friday, and the ASX 200 added 0.6%. The Firmus float closed its book short of the $44 billion sought and was subsequently pulled which was a useful read on the appetite for large, debt-dependent listings which may prove to be a bellwether event, at least locally. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/quiet-at-home-loud-everywhere-else Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

October 5, 20266 min

A quarter of movement but not much progress

The RBA hiked to 4.60%, August CPI came in softer than expected, and US payrolls missed badly. Meanwhile high-yield spreads wobbled for the first time this cycle and Google issued a record-breaking bond into the Australian market. We talk through a quarter that moved a great deal and arrived nowhere. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/a-quarter-of-movement-not-much-progress Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

September 28, 202618 min

Unemployment enters the RBA's band as yields hit twenty-year highs

The S&P rose while the thirty-year hit 5.49%. The RBA is set to hike Tuesday, unemployment is now in the range the Governor wanted, and oil is back above US$104 after Trump rejected Iran's ceasefire offer. This week we discuss why this is a grind rather than a spike Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/ai-oil-and-a-flat-local-market-fy25-26-in-review Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

September 25, 202625 min

Economist Andrew Hunt on the end of the post-pandemic credit boom

We asked Andrew Hunt last week whether, after years of "yes, but liquidity", we were finally coming to the end of something. His answer was an unambiguous "Yes, I think we are." The mechanism is the US current account. Hunt's long-standing rule is that once the American deficit approaches 1% of global GDP — roughly a tenth of world savings — funding becomes a problem. For 18 months it has been comfortably funded by extraordinary Asian surpluses. Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have been running surpluses near 20% of GDP, driven first by selling chips into the AI build-out and now, with capacity exhausted, by 60–70% price inflation in those same chips. The proceeds were recycled into US assets, principally through sovereign wealth funds. Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

September 22, 202627 min

What a defensive diversifier has to look like now, with Christian Baylis

Every defensive allocation starts from a price, and for most of the past decade that starting point was generous: bond yields had room to fall and credit spreads had room to compress. Today the position is reversed. Government yields are grinding higher rather than mean-reverting, and credit spreads sit near their tights. The defensive leg of a diversified portfolio is being asked to do its job from the least helpful entry point in years, with both of its traditional components compromised at once. Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

September 21, 20269 min

Three central banks, five days, one direction

Three major central banks raised rates last week: the Fed to 4%, the ECB earlier in the week, and the Bank of Japan to 1.25% on Friday. In almost every case, markets are priced for at least one more increase this year. The Bank of Japan matters more than most assume: one explanation for the synchronised rise in yields across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia is hedge funds unwinding the "yen carry trade", borrowing cheaply in yen to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/three-central-banks-five-days-one-direction Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck