The Energy Show

Hosted by Crux Investor

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108

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Aug 2026

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A guide to all things uranium with Brandon Munro and other uranium experts.

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September 6, 2026Episode 11631 min

The Multi-Year Oil Shock: Why Above $70 Crude Is the New Normal

Recording date: 4th September 2026 The oil market as Scott Lower, President & Chief Executive Officer of Dune Oil Corp., describes is defined less by a single catalyst than by the layering of several structural constraints that, together, argue for a sustained period of elevated prices. At the centre is Middle East supply disruption: Saudi Arabia is currently shipping only 60% of its pre-crisis volumes, and six pipelines being built specifically to bypass the Strait of Hormuz remain years from completion. Iran's continued tolling of tanker traffic through the Strait, and the uncertainty over whether US sanctions will allow its production to return to the market, mean this isn't a dynamic Lower expects to resolve on a short timeline with his own estimate at 2-3 years before shipping routes and regional output begin to normalise. Layered on top of that is a second, less-discussed constraint: the state of the world's emergency reserves. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits near multi-decade lows, and China and Europe face comparable thinness in their own stockpiles. Lower argues refilling these reserves will itself become a persistent source of demand, independent of the geopolitical premium. US shale decline compounds the picture, and while Venezuela offers a theoretical alternative supply source, Lower is sceptical of a fast resolution there given how much refining infrastructure investment would be needed to process the country's heavy sour crude. For investors trying to translate that macro picture into positioning, Lower's framework favours juniors over majors. With producer valuations already re-rated through the post-Covid recovery, he sees limited further upside in majors and midcaps that have already run, and argues the better risk-adjusted opportunity sits with pre-production juniors capable of bringing new supply online alongside M&A candidates able to acquire existing producing assets and apply US and Canadian completion technology to lift output. It's a framework he's positioning his own company, Dune Oil, around, with its pre-production Turkish asset targeting a near-term production ramp. A separate but related thread in the conversation concerns AI infrastructure. Lower is emphatic that AI's build-out is transformative and real, but argues the actual bottleneck isn't compute or capital - it's power, specifically gas turbine capacity, where only three manufacturers worldwide currently exist and lead times run to five years. That scarcity, in his view, will delay a meaningful share of announced data centre capacity and sustain gas demand growth independent of near-term chip availability. Finally, Lower situates all of this against a currency debasement narrative: stalled treasury issuance, elevated long-bond yields, and a preference for hard assets with oil alongside gold, silver and copper over bonds or money-market instruments. For investors weighing exposure to the space, the throughline across the conversation is that Lower sees the current price environment as a multi-year setup, not a spike to be waited out, with the more attractive entry points concentrated in juniors rather than already-repriced incumbents. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com/subscribe

September 3, 2026Episode 11523 min

Uranium's Contracting Freeze: What's Really Holding Equities Back

Recording date: 1st September 2026 Uranium's long-term price has climbed to $96 a pound, its first move since June and the first stretch in 20 months without a down-tick, while spot has pushed toward the $90 mark on the back of roughly 400,000 pounds of trading. Yet developer and explorer equities have largely failed to track the commodity higher over the summer, a disconnect Chris Frostad, President & CEO of Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. (TSXV:PTU) attributes not to demand growth, but to a supply-side squeeze colliding with a legacy contract overhang that has yet to clear. Frostad's central point, drawn from an Energy Information Administration (EIA) study covering last year's US contracting activity, is that contracting volumes have actually been declining even as the price rises - the opposite of what a demand-led rally would suggest. The price move, in his reading, reflects producers operating at their lowest stock levels with little product available to sell, not fresh buying interest from utilities. The reason equities haven't followed lies in contract structures signed years ago. US utilities currently hold contracts with more than 30% built-in flexibility, letting them order well above base volumes at the original contract price. In 2025, some utilities were taking delivery of uranium in the mid-$50s per pound while the long-term price sat at $85 - a gap wide enough to make drawing down cheap legacy volume the obvious economic choice. That optionality is finite but not yet exhausted, and producers themselves are feeling the effect: Cameco's average revenue per pound came in around $67 last quarter and Kazatomprom's around $68 for the first half of the year, both well below the current $96 long-term price. With granular contracting data unavailable, Frostad points investors to two measurable proxies instead of the spot price: producer revenue per pound, watched quarter to quarter for movement toward the long-term price, and average contract size, which has fallen from roughly three million pounds in 2023 to a little over one million pounds now. A recovery toward two million pounds or more, he argues, would signal utilities are being pushed back into meaningful current-price contracting. He expects the eventual re-rating to be comparatively fast once it begins but gradual rather than a sharp spike, with equities responding to visible contracting activity rather than to headline uranium prices. He also flagged a related fuel-cycle bottleneck: enrichment prices have risen 200-300% in recent years while enriched uranium production has grown only around 4%. On positioning, Frostad's framework favours physical uranium and producers as the parts of the value chain already capturing some benefit, with developers and explorers remaining a deferred trade pending the exhaustion of legacy contracts. He noted that new discoveries have historically tended to emerge from the trough after a price cycle rather than at its lowest point, since higher achievable prices still need to support the economics of exploration. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com/subscribe

August 3, 2026Episode 11440 min

Junior Miners ‘Lifestyle Companies’? Fact or Lazy Label.

Recording date: 28th July 2026 Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, argues that the term “lifestyle company” is frequently misapplied to junior exploration firms, particularly those without revenue. He contends that a lack of revenue is inherent to the exploration stage and does not indicate poor business quality. Instead, a true lifestyle company is one that prioritizes salaries, overhead, and marketing over meaningful exploration work, often with compensation rising regardless of performance. Frostad’s critique follows an experience with a newsletter-writer roundtable that dismissed Purepoint based largely on a single metric: low insider ownership of approximately 2–3% and inconsistent participation in financings. He argues this narrow assessment ignored more relevant indicators such as capital allocation, compensation transparency, and the company’s joint-venture funding model. According to Frostad, such evaluations reflect a misunderstanding of the exploration business, where traditional producer metrics do not apply. He also explains why major mining companies increasingly rely on juniors for discovery. Exploration within large firms is costly and often deprioritized during commodity downturns. Frostad cites a past Rio Tinto earn-in, where $5 million funded only three drill holes under a major’s cost structure, compared to significantly more drilling achievable by a lean junior. This cost disparity has made outsourcing exploration more efficient for majors. Frostad emphasizes that investors should focus on measurable indicators of discipline and alignment. Key signals include how much capital is directed into the ground versus overhead, whether executive compensation adjusts with company performance, and the transparency of financial disclosures. He argues that alignment is better judged by what executives take out of a company—such as salaries, bonuses, and share sales—rather than how much stock they initially own. Ultimately, Frostad calls for a more nuanced evaluation of junior explorers, urging investors to move beyond simplistic labels and assess the underlying economics and governance of each company. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

July 15, 2026Episode 11328 min

Uranium's Third Pullback: What Happens Next?

Recording date: 13th July 2026 Uranium equities are currently in their third significant pullback since 2021, with many producers, developers, and explorers trading 40–50% below their recent highs despite spot prices nearing $100 per pound earlier in 2026. According to Purepoint Uranium Group CEO Chris Frostad, this decline reflects not a weakening of fundamentals, but a pause driven by investor skepticism and the absence of visible large-scale transactions. Frostad maintains that a structural supply deficit still underpins the uranium market, as global demand continues to outpace production capacity. However, unlike retail investors who often focus on daily spot price movements, utilities—the primary buyers—operate on multi-year contracting cycles. As a result, equity markets tend to respond less to price headlines and more to tangible evidence such as contract awards or major uranium purchases. Recent developments suggest potential catalysts ahead. After a prolonged quiet period, there has been a noticeable increase in utility requests for proposals, with more than half a dozen issued in recent weeks. These could translate into contract awards by autumn 2026, potentially triggering renewed investor confidence and a sector re-rating. At the geopolitical level, countries such as India, Russia, and Kazakhstan are actively securing uranium supply through bilateral agreements. In contrast, the United States has shown relatively limited visible activity, a trend Frostad finds unusual given its energy security priorities. Purepoint’s strategy reflects the challenges of operating in a weak market. The company funds exploration through joint ventures with larger partners like Cameco and IsoEnergy, allowing it to advance multiple projects without excessive shareholder dilution. While this approach reduces financial risk, it also limits control, as project timelines depend on partner priorities. Overall, the uranium sector appears to be in a holding pattern, awaiting concrete signs of demand through contracting activity before the next upward cycle begins. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

June 24, 2026Episode 11240 min

The Data on Uranium Exploration That Most Investors Ignore | Energy Show

Recording date: 23rd June 2026 An analysis of uranium exploration companies reveals a disconnect between improving commodity fundamentals and weak shareholder returns, driven largely by structural industry dynamics rather than market inefficiency. Reviewing 650 press releases from 40 companies over five years, researchers found that stock price reactions to exploration news typically normalize within five days. While optimistic language can trigger short-term gains, prices quickly adjust to reflect underlying results, suggesting that markets process exploration data more efficiently than many investors assume. Notably, a significant portion of early-stage indicators, such as handheld gamma readings, failed to translate into confirmed assay results, reinforcing the market’s skepticism toward promotional announcements. A longer-term perspective highlights an even more critical factor: timing. Historical data from the Athabasca Basin shows an 8-to-15-year lag between uranium price peaks and meaningful resource discoveries. Capital flows into exploration during high-price periods, but translating that investment into defined resources requires years of drilling and technical work. As a result, the strongest periods of discovery often occur during commodity price downturns, not peaks. This lag helps explain why many exploration companies have underperformed despite rising uranium prices in recent years. Success in uranium exploration is also rare and resource-intensive. Only six major discoveries have been made in the Athabasca Basin over the past two decades, with winning companies sharing common traits: large land holdings, sustained capital investment, and extensive drilling before achieving results. Meanwhile, most exploration firms have delivered negative returns, often facing dilution or share consolidations due to prolonged funding needs. For investors, the findings suggest a disciplined approach. Rather than reacting to short-term news or commodity price movements, emphasis should be placed on management quality, project fundamentals, and capital structure. Diversifying across several exploration companies can help manage risk, while patience is essential given the long timelines required for value creation. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

June 11, 2026Episode 11131 min

Australia’s Fuel Crisis Exposes Energy Weakness, Boosts Uranium Outlook

Recording date: 9th June 2026 Australia’s uranium sector is gaining renewed attention amid a convergence of energy insecurity, shifting political dynamics, and rising global demand. A recent fuel crisis, triggered by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and compounded by a refinery fire, exposed Australia’s heavy reliance on imported fuel. Diesel rationing forced mining companies to scale back operations, highlighting vulnerabilities in the country’s energy infrastructure and reinforcing the strategic importance of domestic energy alternatives, including nuclear. At the same time, proposed changes to Australia’s capital gains tax regime—replacing a 50% discount with inflation indexing—are dampening investor sentiment, particularly in capital-intensive sectors such as mining and exploration. Rising interest rates and broader economic pressures are adding to what industry leaders describe as a challenging investment environment. Despite these headwinds, political momentum appears to be shifting in favor of uranium development. New South Wales has moved to lift its long-standing uranium mining ban, while growing support for pro-nuclear policies—driven in part by changing voter preferences—suggests other states, including Western Australia, may eventually follow. Notably, Western Australia has already provided exploration funding to uranium companies despite maintaining its mining ban. Cauldron Energy exemplifies this evolving landscape. The company holds a 55-million-pound uranium resource at its Yanrey project in Western Australia and is targeting more than 100 million pounds through ongoing exploration. Its use of in-situ recovery mining offers a lower-cost and environmentally lighter development pathway, positioning it well for future production if regulatory barriers ease. International interest is also strengthening, with French and Japanese entities seeking to secure long-term uranium supply. Combined with increasing inclusion in uranium-focused investment funds, these trends are enhancing the sector’s outlook. While regulatory uncertainty remains, the broader trajectory suggests improving conditions for Australian uranium producers. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

April 28, 2026Episode 11039 min

The Uranium Illusion: Why Official Forecasts Hide a Looming Supply Squeeze

Recording date: 27th April 2026 Investors looking at official uranium industry reports are often misled by a fundamental data flaw. Organizations like the World Nuclear Association generate forecasts designed for policymakers and utilities rather than market investors. By conflating maximum nameplate capacity with actual deliverable fuel and ignoring the one-to-two-year lag required for fuel fabrication, these reports significantly overestimate available supply. When adjusted for real-world output, the data reveals a looming structural deficit that surface-level readings miss entirely. Research indicates a genuine supply-demand pinch is expected to hit between mid-2026 and early 2027. While nuclear demand remains stable and predictable, supply is actively deteriorating due to project delays, geopolitical shifts, and operational hurdles. For example, Kazakhstan—a major global producer—has strategically shifted its focus from maximizing volume to prioritizing value, signaling a new era of producer behavior. Market recognition of this deficit is lagging largely due to the extreme opacity of global uranium inventories. The industry has been consuming more than it produces for years, making a stockpile drawdown inevitable, even if exact inventory levels remain hidden. However, the transition is already unfolding through visible triggers: long-term contracts are sustaining above the $85 per pound mark, early evidence suggests falling inventories, and reactor restart projects are consistently being pushed beyond 2027. Rather than waiting for a sudden, catalyst-driven price spike, investors should expect the market to wake up to this deficit in stages. We are already seeing changes in producer behavior and term market adjustments, which will eventually be followed by spot price volatility and utility panic over fuel availability. The takeaway for investors is to stop trying to time the market. Instead, focus on companies with strong operational fundamentals to weather the structural supply constraints currently reshaping the sector. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

April 22, 2026Episode 10943 min

Uranium Exploration Investing: Patience, Discipline, and the Long Game

Recording date: 20th April 2026 The uranium exploration sector is not for the faint-hearted or the impatient. Discoveries typically require 6 to 10 or more years of systematic work, and the historical record is humbling: during the 2003–2007 uranium boom, roughly 60 companies deployed approximately $200 million annually in Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin, yet only two significant deposits — Phoenix and Roughrider — emerged from that effort. The lesson is clear: capital alone does not guarantee discovery. Counterintuitively, three of the sector's most celebrated finds — Fission's Triple R, NexGen's Arrow, and IsoEnergy's Hurricane — were made during the subsequent market downturn, when disciplined teams with access to capital could work methodically rather than chase press releases. IsoEnergy's path to Hurricane illustrates the dilution risk investors must navigate: the company diluted shareholders by 400% and executed a 4-to-1 share consolidation before the discovery was made. Entering too early, before assets are de-risked and teams are proven, can be deeply costly. A meaningful shift in the current cycle is the growing involvement of majors like Cameco, Orano, and Denison, who are now funding junior explorers through partnerships and earn-in agreements. This isn't charity — existing mines like McClean and Cigar Lake have roughly a decade of life remaining, and these companies haven't made significant greenfield discoveries in 10 to 20 years. Their participation validates geological concepts, reduces dilutive financing pressure on juniors, and signals genuine industry conviction in the supply-demand imbalance. Unlike previous uranium price spikes driven by short-term disruptions, the current supply deficit is structural. Even if major new deposits are discovered today, they cannot reach production for 10 to 20 years. This means near-term supply gaps simply cannot be resolved through exploration success, supporting the case for a more sustained price increase — expected by some analysts within the next 6 to 8 months — rather than another boom-bust cycle. Bull markets inevitably attract promotional operators — companies with little more than a story and a stock ticker. Investors must evaluate teams on demonstrated Athabasca Basin experience, proximity to known mineralisation systems, a systematic drilling approach, a clean capital structure, and sufficient financial runway. Companies that raise capital opportunistically, when it's available rather than when they need it, tend to outperform those scrambling for funds during downturns. For patient investors willing to do the work, the current environment — marked by maturing exploration programs, increasing major producer engagement, and an unresolvable near-term supply deficit — may represent one of the more clearly defined entry windows the uranium sector has offered in years. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

March 25, 2026Episode 10824 min

Uranium Investing in 2026: Money May Move Down the Curve Whilst African Supply Moves East

Recording date: 23rd March 2026 Chris Frostad, CEO of Purepoint Uranium, recently provided critical insights into the uranium sector's current state, correcting market misconceptions and outlining investment opportunities amid evolving market dynamics. The discussion began with an important clarification regarding physical uranium holdings. Contrary to earlier speculation, Cameco and Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) do not lend, borrow, or move uranium from their warehouses. Frostad emphasized that physical uranium remains in designated storage facilities, highlighting the challenges investors face when navigating the sector's opacity and information vacuum. Frostad's equity performance analysis revealed significant divergence across uranium company categories. Since mid-2025, producers have substantially outperformed spot uranium price movements, suggesting markets have already priced in future price increases for companies with existing production capacity. This "rerating" reflects investor confidence that producers will benefit disproportionately from tightening market conditions. In contrast, developers and explorers have moved largely laterally, creating what Frostad views as potential opportunities for the next market phase. Comparing the current cycle to the pre-Fukushima bull market, Frostad noted fundamental differences. Today's market appears driven by genuine supply tightness, evidenced by increased long-term contracting and strategic government-to-government deals, rather than the speculation that characterized the previous cycle. Geopolitical concerns emerged as a significant theme, particularly regarding African uranium production flowing eastward to China. This trend creates strategic supply challenges for North American and European markets, potentially forcing Western nations to accelerate domestic development or reconsider policies on Russian enrichment services. Despite recent market volatility, Frostad maintains a constructive outlook, viewing current conditions as buying opportunities for investors with conviction in the structural deficit thesis. However, he stressed the critical importance of individual company analysis, bluntly noting substantial quality dispersion among explorers and developers. Success requires careful due diligence rather than broad sector exposure, with uranium investment demanding thesis-based conviction over technical timing. Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

February 25, 2026Episode 10630 min

Australian Uranium Sector Update: Policy Headwinds Meet Exploration Success

with Jonathan Fisher, CEO of Cauldron Energy Recording date: 11th February 2026 Cauldron Energy is capitalizing on strong exploration momentum despite Australia's complex political and regulatory environment, according to managing director Jonathan Fisher. The company has achieved three uranium discoveries over two years, establishing itself as Australia's leading uranium exploration team while reaching a $70 million market capitalization that has attracted institutional investors including Tribeca's Guy Keller. The company expects to release a resource update within weeks, quantifying uranium identified through recent drilling campaigns. Cauldron has secured heritage clearances for May 2026, enabling mid-year drilling commencement—a significant improvement from October 2025 timing. With adequate cash reserves, the company is positioned to execute an aggressive exploration program through the year. Australia's energy landscape provides an increasingly compelling backdrop for uranium development. Energy prices surged 21% after government rebates ended, exposing the true cost of renewable-focused policies and contributing to a 25 basis point interest rate increase in January 2026. The government has redirected subsidies toward home battery installations rather than addressing structural energy issues, with Fisher noting that battery economics remain unviable even with 50% cost rebates. Political disruption continues reshaping Australia's uranium policy prospects. One Nation, traditionally a fringe party, now polls at 28% as the second-largest political force, while the Liberal-National Coalition experiences ongoing dysfunction. Despite federal support for uranium mining, state-level bans persist in Queensland and Western Australia. Critically, uranium remains excluded from Australia's critical minerals list despite U.S. partnership agreements, limiting access to regulatory facilitation that could streamline project approvals. The uranium spot market faces volatility from Sprott Physical Uranium Trust buying approximately 4 million pounds monthly against 9 million pound annual limits, though term contract prices continue strengthening. Cauldron will present at Perth's RIU Conference next week, with Fisher emphasizing the company is "rapidly moving up the ladder of biggest uranium projects in Australia." Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com