
44: Bidding Wars: Winning the 2026 Bid Spread
Picture two identical dental practices on opposite ends of the same street — same collections, same operatories, same patient base. One owner takes the first DSO cold call and signs. The other runs a disciplined 90-day competitive process and walks away with hundreds of thousands more — frequently crossing a $1 million premium. Nothing about the dentistry changed. The only variable was the process. That's the counterintuitive truth at the heart of this episode, built on the 2026 research brief Winning the Bid Spread : valuation multiples have been flat (roughly 6–12x EBITDA) for two years, yet the gap between the lowest and highest offer on the same practice sits at a historic high. We unpack why buyers will jump ~50% from their opening number when forced to compete — the "DSO squeeze" (69% of DSOs expect more acquisitions this year; 78% face a recapitalization in the next 12–36 months) colliding with the demographic wave (average retirement age 68.7, with 40%+ of dentists 55 or older in some states). Then we contrast the two buyer types head-to-head: the DSO's big headline multiple with only 60–80% cash at close and illiquid rollover equity, versus the private buyer's smaller headline but 75–85% cash, a secured seller note, and a clean exit. Finally, the engineering that happens before you go to market: normalizing EBITDA with legitimate add-backs (a 10–20% lift), pulling the scale and hygiene levers, and eliminating the suppressors that quietly tank a valuation. In this episode: The "identical twins" thought experiment: a $1M+ difference created purely by process Why the multiple is set by the market but the check is set by the competition you run The bid spread: 5+ competing offers averaging ~50% above the initial offer (TUSK 2026) The DSO squeeze — 69% expanding acquisitions, 78% facing a recap deadline The silver tsunami: retirement at 68.7, 40%+ of dentists aged 55+ DSO vs. private buyer: EBITDA multiple + rollover equity vs. TTM collections + clean cash and a seller note Why "cash at close" and rollover equity matter more than the headline number Normalizing EBITDA: owner comp, personal expenses, and one-time add-backs (a 10–20% lift) Value levers (scale premiums, 25–35%+ hygiene mix) and suppressors (Medicaid concentration and the Oct 1, 2026 OBBB cuts, provider concentration, short leases) Why due diligence is a "price reduction phase" — and how to disarm it before the LOI One action this week: If you're 1–5 years from a transition, pull your trailing-12-month P&L and your production-by-provider report, sit down with a red pen, and calculate your true normalized EBITDA — including your legitimate add-backs and owner/operator replacement cost. That single exercise tells you which valuation tier you're actually in, long before you pick up the phone. Learn more: Practice Orbit — practiceorbit.com Source: Practice Orbit research brief, Winning the Bid Spread (2026).





