The Data Minute

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Jun 2026

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Join Carta's Head of Insights, Peter Walker, as he breaks down the data that's fueling today's most fascinating trends in startups, VC, and the private market ecosystem. Featuring guests from across the venture industry — from founders to investors, and everyone in between — each new Data Minute is a bite-sized breakdown of the metrics, patterns, and important insights you need to navigate the ever-changing world of startups.

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June 11, 2026Episode 740 min

Coding Taste: AI’s Impact on Culture | Amber Atherton, Partner, Patron

How do you invest in what’s cool before the rest of the world catches on? This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Amber Atherton, Partner at Patron, to explore the rapidly shifting landscape of consumer venture capital.Amber reveals the tactical strategies she uses to keep her pulse on the cultural vanguard, including running multiple TikTok burner accounts and hunting for early micro-trends inside gamer communities and niche digital spaces. They dive deep into her recent thesis on "computational taste," analyzing whether AI models can possess or dictate authentic taste, and why design-native founders are uniquely positioned to win the next wave of tech adoption.The conversation also covers the massive grey-market-to-mainstream pipeline powering the "American Peptide Boom," the business model shift behind ChatGPT's inevitable advertising play, and a transparent breakdown of the psychology of liquidity, including exactly when a founder should (and shouldn't) leverage secondary markets.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:18 – Intro: Consumer VC and Amber Atherton01:09 – The Truth About Demo Day and Fundraising Reality03:22 – Defining Consumer Investing: Trend Hunting vs. Fundamentals05:09 – TikTok Burner Accounts and Tracking Gen Z Culture09:02 – Computational Taste: Building the Taste Layer of AI09:52 – Can an AI Model Have Genuine, Ephemeral Taste?17:31 – The Squeeze: Where Consumer VC Stands Today19:20 – Gray Market to Mainstream: The American Peptide Boom22:51 – Formats and Vibe Coding: Amber's Writing Process26:51 – "In My Bones": Why Amber Chose Venture Capital Over Being a Founder30:10 – The Repeat Founder Conundrum: Motivation vs. Experience31:09 – The Psychology of Liquidity: When to Take Secondary33:36 – Honesty in the Idea Maze: Knowing When to Pivot or Return Capital34:53 – ChatGPT Launching Ads: The Economics of Attention36:04 – Spicy Question: Do Accelerators Work for Consumer Founders?37:51 – "Peptide Summer": Net-New Brands vs. Incumbents in Wellness39:58 – Outro: Headed to the Skate ParkThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

May 28, 2026Episode 651 min

The Seed Existential Crisis | Rob Go, Founding Partner, NextView Ventures

Is seed investing facing an existential crisis? This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Rob Go, Founding Partner at NextView Ventures, to discuss the structural shifts making the "game on the field" harder than ever for early-stage investors.Rob explains why many successful seed VCs are exiting the industry and how the rise of mega-funds and massive accelerators like YC has squeezed traditional seed firms into a narrow "subset" of the market. They dive into the "feeder fund" phenomenon, the arbitrary nature of ownership mandates, and why the $1B–$3B exit range has become a "Death Valley" for startups.Despite the current angst, Rob shares his optimistic "bull case" for 2030, explaining why diminishing competition and a rotation away from late-stage consensus will lead to a healthier venture substrate in the years to come.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:20 – Intro: Rob Go and the Seed Existential Crisis02:16 – Defining Seed: Betting on anything before PMF03:35 – Why senior seed VCs are exiting the industry05:02 – The Squeeze: Mega-funds vs. Accelerators07:02 – Scarcity vs. Abundance: What’s left for seed funds?08:44 – The "Feeder Fund" trap and the factory supply chain12:38 – The risk of taking seed money from a mega-fund13:34 – Breaking down the 4 styles of seed investing15:20 – Why specialist seed funds can be transient19:29 – Super Compounders: Will exits keep getting bigger?21:59 – The "Death Valley" of $1B–$3B exits25:08 – The Blumhouse equivalent for venture capital27:18 – Normalizing secondaries as an exit strategy33:53 – Rant: Why ownership targets are backwards39:04 – Offensive vs. Defensive bridge rounds45:07 – "I've become way more Zen": Why the 2030 outlook is bullish50:18 – OutroThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

May 14, 2026Episode 549 min

The Venture Debt Masterclass | Marshall Hawks, Author, Venture Debt Deals

There is a long-standing stigma in venture capital that debt is a "company killer." This week on The Data Minute, Peter Walker sits down with Marshall Hawks, former SVB expert and author of “Venture Debt Deals,” to debunk the myths and explain why debt is often the smartest addition to a founder’s equity mix.Marshall breaks down the tactical reality of how these deals actually get done, from the "sniff test" lenders perform during office visits to the critical differences between venture banks and private credit funds. He explains how founders can use debt to survive 15-year exit timelines while minimizing dilution, and shares the specific red flags that indicate a startup is becoming over-leveraged.Plus, Marshall offers a rare look at the "workout groups" that step in when things go wrong and explains why a company's General Counsel might not be the right person to lead a debt negotiation. Whether you are an early-stage founder or a late-stage operator, this episode is a definitive guide to capitalizing your business in a shifting market.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:16 – Intro: Marshall Hawks and the Venture Debt stigma01:10 – Why Marshall wrote "Venture Debt Deals"03:26 – Addressing the Paul Graham view: Is debt dangerous?06:40 – When (and when NOT) to touch venture debt09:14 – The "Insurance" Play: Why many founders never draw the capital10:48 – Venture Banks vs. Private Credit Funds13:00 – Understanding draw periods and interest-only terms17:34 – Why your lender wants to visit your office (The Sniff Test)22:28 – The market after March 2023: Life after SVB26:09 – The "Workout Group": What happens when things go sideways? 30:31 – Green flags: How to diligence your lending partner33:50 – The legal process: Why GC’s need outside support37:13 – Hidden costs: Why the company pays everyone’s legal fees42:31 – Using debt to survive 15-year exit timelines44:49 – Red flags: Debt service vs. opex ratios48:06 – Final advice: Fundraising is not successThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

May 2, 2026Episode 421 min

Live from Chase Center: The Future of Private Markets | Salil Deshpande, Amit Patel, Vignesh Ravikumar, & Corey Goodman

Live from the Chase Center in San Francisco, Peter gathers four leading venture investors to discuss the shifting landscape of private markets. This special episode features Salil Deshpande (Uncorrelated Ventures), Amit Patel (Owl Ventures), Vignesh Ravikumar (Sierra Ventures), and Corey Goodman, PhD (venBio Partners).The episode covers why gross margins have become the most critical metric for AI model companies and how the rise of secondary markets is challenging the traditional ten-year fund structure. They explore the new "efficiency benchmarks" for startups, where founders are expected to reach milestones faster with significantly less capital and headcount.We also dig into the reality of AI in biotech, the "Nvidia problem" regarding value capture, and why massive fund sizes often lead to a regression to the mean. Plus, the guests share the data points they wish they had, from true product retention to the complex inner workings of human biology.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:30 – Salil Deshpande: AI gross margins and value creation01:29 – Why the rate of AI improvement is still increasing02:02 – Secondary markets and the end of the 10+2 model03:28 – How massive fund sizes impact price discipline04:40 – Amit A. Patel: The shift in efficiency benchmarks06:17 – Personalized learning and AI’s impact on education08:00 – Justifying longer exit timelines with larger outcomes09:47 – Matching capital deployment to fund strategy11:42 – Vignesh Ravikumar: Building in the hyperscale era13:00 – Capturing value outside of the model layer13:41 – Fund size as a driver of conviction and ownership14:50 – The unknown data on AI product retention15:13 – Corey Goodman, PhD: Turning science into medicine16:11 – Why AI is overhyped in the world of biology17:50 – Why the 10-year model still works for biotech19:27 – Why mega funds regress to the mean in life sciencesThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

February 12, 2026Episode 350 min

Is "2 and 20" Still the Standard? | Hamza Shad, Carta Insights Team

In this special deep dive episode, Peter is joined by his Carta Insights colleague Hamza Shad to unpack the operational reality of running a venture fund. They leave behind portfolio performance metrics to focus entirely on the business of the fund itself.Peter and Hamza break down the data from Carta’s inaugural Fund Economics report. They analyze how much capital GPs are actually committing to their own funds, why anchor LPs are taking larger stakes, and whether the industry standard "2 and 20" fee structure is actually holding up.They also discuss the hidden costs of fund operations, from legal fees to audits, and why the 2022 vintage is deploying capital slower than its predecessors. Plus, they answer audience questions on recycling capital, managing lines of credit, and why marking up SAFEs on SAFEs is a red flag for LPs.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:00 – Intro: The business of the fund02:30 – GP Commit: How much skin in the game?04:40 – Why PE managers commit more than VCs05:58 – The rise of the Anchor LP10:38 – Capital Calls: Timelines and delays15:30 – Why the 2022 vintage is deploying slowly19:53 – Is "2 and 20" still the standard for fees?23:00 – Carry benchmarks across fund sizes25:40 – The rarity of preferred returns in VC27:00 – Operating Expenses: Legal vs. Tax costs28:58 – Why audits are becoming mandatory31:33 – The danger of marking up SAFEs33:22 – Managing Manco expenses35:24 – Q&A: When to call capital41:35 – Q&A: Valuation methodology and stale marks44:18 – Q&A: Secondaries and recycling capital47:58 – Q&A: Thesis drift49:28 – OutroThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

January 22, 2026Episode 253 min

Why VCs Should Be Pirates | Arian Ghashghai, Founding Partner, Earthling VC

This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Arian Ghashghai, Founding Partner at Earthling VC, to discuss his thesis of investing in "weird stuff early."Arian explains why he bets on robotic oyster farms, virtual reality, and ocean exploration when other investors are chasing the latest consensus trends. He breaks down his "pirate ship" approach to venture capital and why being the first check is often more valuable to a founder than being the "most helpful."They also discuss the current state of the VC market and why Arian believes many funds have shifted from true long-term investing to short-term trading. Plus, Arian shares his unfiltered advice on raising from LPs, why he ignores "signaling risk" from big funds, and why Zurich might have a higher talent density than San Francisco.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:00 – Intro: Investing in weird stuff02:07 – Intro to Earthling VC02:47 – The "weird stuff early" thesis03:57 – Who are the LPs backing weird tech?05:47 – Why VR is a polarizing investment08:55 – The value of transparency with LPs10:49 – Case study: Robotic oyster farms14:36 – Do LPs push back on style drift?16:06 – Why keep the fund size small?18:50 – Portfolio construction: Diversified vs. Concentrated19:56 – Fundraising advice: Find alignment, don't convince25:46 – Can a solo GP really support 50 companies?28:42 – The three types of investors: Biggest, First, Helpful30:50 – Speed as a competitive advantage33:03 – Why Safe caps are just demand-driven prices34:11 – The cynicism of modern venture capital38:02 – Are VCs investing or just trading?41:31 – Do we need more VCs?46:41 – Avoiding consensus deal flow48:17 – Why Zurich is an underrated tech hub50:50 – Why founders love explicit investorsThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

January 8, 2026Episode 139 min

2026 Market Outlook | Ashley Neville, Carta Insights Team

Welcome to 2026. In this special New Year’s episode of The Data Minute, Peter sits down with his colleague Ashley Neville from Carta’s Insights Team to dissect the data that defined 2025 and forecast the trends shaping the year ahead.Ashley and Peter analyze the "haves and have nots" market where AI startups command a 40% valuation premium over their peers. They explain why solo founders now account for over a third of all new companies and how capital constraints are driving this shift.They also break down the changing landscape for startup employees, including why equity packages have dropped by 50% and why many departing workers are choosing not to exercise their options. Plus, they discuss the liquidity pressure facing VCs, the "Nvidia problem" for LPs, and what founders need to understand about the Safe market in 2026.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:01:14 – Ashley Neville joins the show 02:18 – Fundraising: A market of "Haves and Have Nots"03:47 – The 40% AI valuation premium06:00 – Why the bar for media coverage has skyrocketed07:34 – The surge of the Solo Founder (30% to 36%)10:00 – The concentration of startups in SF and SaaS11:17 – The new hiring reality: 10% leaner teams13:34 – Why employee equity packages are down 50%15:20 – Why employees are leaving options on the table18:43 – The "First Employee" equity bump21:10 – The need for better equity education24:02 – The liquidity crisis: IPOs vs. Staying Private28:05 – LP Psychology: Why invest in VC when you have Nvidia?29:39 – Companies staying private for 16-18 years32:10 – Fund Economics: VC vs. PE personal capital36:20 – The most common founder questions (Safes & Dilution)38:52 – OutroThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2026 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

December 18, 2025Episode 171 hr 0 min

The AI-First VC | Ben Orthlieb, Founding Partner, Blue Moon VC

This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Ben Orthlieb, Founding Partner at Blue Moon VC, for a look under the hood of a firm that has completely re-engineered the venture capital process using AI.Ben explains how Blue Moon uses a proprietary tech stack to source over 12,000 teams a year and screen them down to the top 5% based on their probability of graduating to Series B, achieving performance metrics that rival top-tier firms without the massive headcount. He breaks down why the "warm intro" is obsolete, how sending AI-generated dossiers to founders results in a 75% meeting acceptance rate, and why human judgment is still the final decision-maker.They also discuss the "hollowing middle" of the venture market, why multi-billion dollar funds struggle to innovate their own workflows, and how a small check strategy allows Blue Moon to cooperate, rather than compete, with the biggest names in the industry.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters00:00 – Intro: The AI-first VC01:27 – Blue Moon's thesis: Coverage and Winning03:11 – How to source 12,000 teams a year without a network05:40 – "Machine learning instinct": Optimizing for Series B graduation07:44 – Backtesting the algorithm against top 50 Seed firms10:12 – The 75% meeting conversion rate (and why cold email works)12:30 – The "AI Dossier": Showing founders you did the work14:13 – Finding outliers outside the "Credibility Pool" (The Mercor story)16:05 – The investment process: Where AI ends and humans begin18:43 – Does it matter who else is on the cap table?23:36 – The "Small Check" advantage in winning allocation25:22 – How to interview for resilience30:20 – Why personal questions are a competitive advantage32:31 – Follow-ons, reserves, and systematic secondaries36:00 – Why haven't big funds copied this strategy yet?39:54 – The "hollowing middle" of the VC market44:40 – Why brand is the only defense against noise49:20 – Do warm intros actually result in better investments?52:46 – The future of the "Operator-VC" model56:00 – What LPs really think about an AI-driven fund59:07 – OutroThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

December 11, 2025Episode 1639 min

The Solo Founder Era | Julian Weisser, Co-founder, ODF & solofounders.com

Is the "co-founder mandate" dead? This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Julian Weisser, co-founder of ODF and solofounders.com, to unpack the data behind a massive shift in the startup ecosystem: solo founders now make up over a third of all new companies.Julian breaks down the "Denominator Delusion"—the survivorship bias that tricks founders into forcing partnerships that often fail. They discuss why co-founder breakups are the silent killer of early-stage startups, the structural advantages of going it alone (including a 30-40% equity buffer), and why "authorship" matters just as much as ownership in the early days.Plus: Why founding a company has become too "high status," how AI is unlocking the solo path, and why the best investors are finally changing their tune on single-founder startups.Read the full "State of the Solo Founder" report: https://carta.com/data/solo-founders-report/Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:00 – Intro: The rise of the solo founder01:15 – Welcome Julian Weisser02:00 – Challenging the co-founder default04:31 – The "Denominator Delusion"06:20 – Why VCs talk themselves out of solo founders08:32 – Is AI the ultimate unlock for solo builders?10:30 – The hidden frequency of co-founder breakups13:15 – When interpersonal misalignment destroys a company15:04 – Can you add a co-founder two years in?17:52 – Is being a founder too "high status" now?21:28 – The difference between serious founders and "tourists"24:13 – Deep Dive: The State of the Solo Founder Report26:46 – Chart 1: Over 1/3 of startups are now solo28:30 – Changing investor minds: A story from the Midas List30:56 – How solo founders hire and build teams differently34:22 – The equity advantage: Why solos exit with more ownership36:33 – "Authorship" vs. Ownership 38:12 – OutroThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.

November 20, 2025Episode 1553 min

Don’t Sleep on Seattle Startups | Vivek Ladsariya (Managing Director, Pioneer Square Labs)

This week on The Data Minute, Peter sits down with Vivek Ladsariya, Managing Director at Pioneer Square Labs, for a deep dive into the Seattle startup ecosystem and the evolving world of venture studios.Vivek breaks down why Seattle has become the quiet giant of AI infrastructure, holding the second-highest concentration of AI talent in the US, and explains why the "locked up" talent at Amazon and Microsoft is finally breaking free. He also gives a candid assessment of the venture studio model, why many studios are "zombies," how AI is forcing them to pivot to a holding company structure, and why he actually encourages his Seattle founders to move to San Francisco.They also discuss the economics of small funds vs. mega funds, why signaling risk is real for follow-on rounds, and the "unscalable" things emerging managers must do to compete. Plus: a look at an investment fighting the loneliness epidemic and a rare story of a VC voluntarily taking dilution to save a cap table.Subscribe to Carta’s weekly Data Minute newsletter: https://carta.com/subscribe/data-newsletter-sign-up/Explore interactive startup and VC data, with Carta’s Data Desk: https://carta.com/data-desk/Chapters:00:00 – Intro: Seattle, Studios, and AI01:10 – Welcome Vivek Ladsariya02:22 – How mega funds warped the SF market05:08 – Inside Pioneer Square Labs06:40 – The "Bar Test": Speed of funding in SF vs. Seattle09:23 – Is Seattle talent trapped in Big Tech?11:46 – The "Cracked Kid" vs. The Seasoned Exec15:50 – Why Seattle is the #2 AI hub in the US17:02 – Why Vivek wants Seattle founders to move to SF20:10 – The case against remote work for startups21:53 – Why Seattle is the infrastructure capital of AI24:11 – The Venture Studio model: Why do VCs hate it?27:10 – How AI is disrupting the studio model29:00 – The HoldCo future: Hims & Hers and Liquid Death31:22 – Using a studio to compete with mega-fund platforms33:45 – Why PSL will never raise a mega fund36:16 – The psychology of follow-on reserves38:56 – Signaling risk: "Why didn't Andreessen invest?"41:30 – Secondaries vs. holding onto winners45:28 – Are LPs tired of mega funds?46:31 – Why you can't be a solo GP forever48:56 – Investing in the loneliness epidemic (Tin Can)50:43 – The most value-add thing a VC can do52:07 – OutroThis presentation contains general information only and eShares, Inc. dba Carta, Inc. (“Carta”) is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services, and is for informational purposes only. This presentation is not a substitute for such professional advice or services nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business or interests. © 2025 eShares, Inc., dba Carta, Inc. All rights reserved.