The Bitcoin Layer

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312

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Oct 2026

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About the show

The Bitcoin Layer is a premium markets research provider, covering bitcoin through a global macro lens | Research, Analysis, & Education Featuring Nik Bhatia, author of the #1 Amazon bestseller Layered Money and USC Marshall School of Business professor. Subscribe to our research publication and YouTube channel to learn about global macroeconomics, bitcoin, Lightning Network, the monetary and financial system, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and geopolitics. Most importantly, develop a framework for understanding global markets—connect the dots between economic and financial concepts to see the bigger picture. Look no further for your bitcoin and macro education!

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October 26, 202610 min

The Credit Cycle Is Turning On Stocks

In this episode, Nik covers three funding headlines that landed within days of each other: Anthropic filing for an IPO, SpaceX going to the bond market for $40 billion, and Meta raising $95 billion in equity. He explains why so much issuance at once signals the funding window is narrowing, why a turning credit cycle starves everything on the fringe, and why stock valuations and earnings growth are already rolling over. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

October 23, 202640 min

97% Of Bitcoin’s Price Is Explained By The Power Law | Santostasi & Perrenod

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Giovanni Santostasi and Dr. Stephen Perrenod of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, joining from Lugano, to explain the bitcoin power law. Giovanni walks through why bitcoin’s price plotted against time produces a straight line on a log log chart, and why an R squared of 0.97 means only 3% of the price history falls outside it. Stephen explains the two power laws underneath it, adoption growing as the cube of time, the same rate as the internet and as viruses, and value growing with the square of users. They also cover their peer reviewed paper and why the math suggests bitcoin is empirically a peer to peer network. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

October 20, 20261 hr 10 min

The Most Important Thing About This Debt Crisis with Matt Dines

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to talk through where we are in the credit cycle and why he thinks we are in the late innings. Matt walks through the names he watches widening every day, from Oracle and CoreWeave to JetBlue bonds trading at 61 cents on the dollar, and explains why record high yield deals from SoftBank and Paramount Skydance mean companies are issuing with a gun to their head rather than by choice. He argues that a QE response would be the wrong prescription, because the disease is tight resource markets rather than a purely financial problem. Nik and Matt close on what a default wave would mean for bitcoin. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

October 16, 20267 min

Bitcoin Wants To Run But Liquidity Won’t Let It

In this episode, Demian explains TBL’s analysis of why bitcoin is holding up even as liquidity hit its lowest point of the cycle. He covers how the TBL Liquidity Index works, what a red dot actually signals, and why bitcoin’s own supply and demand have shifted in its favor as the sellers ran out and more than 70% of supply moved into profit. He closes on the three things that would need to ease for liquidity to turn. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

October 15, 202615 min

The Math Behind $1 Million Bitcoin

In this episode, Nik explains the bitcoin power law and why he believes it points to a million dollar bitcoin in the early 2030s. He walks through bitcoin’s orders of magnitude, four years to go from $1,000 to $10,000 and eight years to reach $100,000, and why the next zero may take a similar stretch. Nik covers where the power law comes from, the exponent Giovanni Santostasi solved for, and why power laws show up in nature, from the education level of a city to how much an elephant eats. He also explains why bitcoin trading below the bottom band of its power law has historically been a good place to accumulate. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

October 13, 202612 min

Nobody Has Ever Lost Money Holding Bitcoin Six Years

In this episode, Nik explains what he thinks is the easiest way to introduce bitcoin to new investors, which comes down to returns. He compares bitcoin against stocks, bonds, and gold across three, five, seven, and ten year windows, showing where bitcoin trails and where it separates, including the five year stretch where gold and stocks both beat it. Nik then walks through the HODL Cave, which plots returns by holding period and shows that nobody who has held bitcoin for six years has ever lost money, with median returns climbing above 100x at ten years. He closes on why he expects forward returns in the 30s rather than the 60s. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

October 8, 202626 min

Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700

In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative liquidity environment mutes bitcoin's returns, and why the dollar squeeze building through October is a main reason liquidity is reading negative. Nik also covers gold testing a trend line it has held since 2025, why the ten-year yield may finally be catching a bid after a strong auction, why the twos tens curve is the chart he watches most closely, and why French bond spreads are back at 2011 levels. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

October 6, 202621 min

Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold

In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen close to the midline that separates expansion from contraction, why rate of change matters more than the level, and why bitcoin performing well in a negative liquidity environment tells him it has entered an early stage of recovery after a deep capitulation. Nik also covers the move index and the dollar, the Thucydides trap and the US China breakup behind the global system rupture, why credit spreads explain the stock market, and why he is watching for a European central bank print. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

October 2, 202614 min

Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About The Bond Crisis

In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to tighter liquidity, then turns to the French German bond spread and why a move of this size has only happened twice in thirty years. Nik explains where he thinks the European Central Bank would have to step in, why falling oil could ironically rescue the French bond market, and why this crisis may be the opening the digital euro needed. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

September 30, 202621 min

Europe Is About To Print

In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro suggests Europe is defending its bond market rather than its currency, and why he is watching for trial balloons of a European money creation event from the ECB or the Bank for International Settlements. Nik then walks through the charts TBL members use most, the MOVE index, the dollar index, and the yield curve, and introduces the new crossover analysis combining TBL liquidity with Johan Bergman's state grid to gauge how much confidence a given signal deserves. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

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