The Battery Show

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Jun 2026

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A Crux Investor show giving you a guide to all things battery metals with Mark Selby and other industry experts.

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June 10, 2026Episode 9716 min

Nickel Market Faces New Reality as Indonesia’s Ore Quality Slips and Costs Rise

Recording date: 9th June 2026The global nickel market is entering a more complex phase, driven largely by structural changes in Indonesia, the world’s dominant supplier. A sharp decline in Indonesian ore grades has emerged as a key concern. Average nickel content fell from about 1.66% in 2024 to 1.52% in 2025, with most traded material now in the 1.3–1.4% range. This shift reduces the amount of recoverable nickel per tonne and raises processing costs, putting pressure on margins across the value chain. It also narrows the quality gap with alternative suppliers such as the Philippines, which is gaining relative competitiveness.At the same time, Indonesia is tightening its grip on the sector through policy tools. The government has introduced a sovereign-linked entity to route commodity transactions, primarily to improve tax compliance, particularly among offshore operators. While aimed at transparency, this added layer of oversight introduces new regulatory considerations for market participants. Quota management remains another powerful lever: production caps have already forced some operators, such as Weda Bay, to suspend mining after exhausting allocations, with restarts tied to regulatory compliance.These measures appear to support a managed price environment, with authorities informally targeting a nickel price range of $18,000 to $21,000 per tonne in the near term. Beyond Indonesia, a pickup in mergers and acquisitions signals renewed strategic interest in nickel assets following a period of weak prices. Companies like Lifezone Metals and Sherritt International are reportedly attracting bids, reflecting expectations of tighter future supply.Meanwhile, emerging technologies are adding a new dimension. Pilot projects exploring geological hydrogen production from nickel-bearing rocks highlight potential alternative value streams, though technical and commercial viability remains under evaluation. Overall, declining ore quality, stronger state oversight, and evolving investment activity are reshaping the nickel market’s medium-term outlook.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

May 15, 2026Episode 9618 min

Precious Metals Royalties Are Booming - Are Battery Metals Next?

Interview with Brendan Yurik, CEO, Electric RoyaltiesOur previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/electric-royalties-ltd-tsxvelec-43-royalties-with-multiple-catalysts-ahead-9474Recording date: 14th May 2026The royalty and streaming sector is showing a sharp divide, with precious metals attracting strong investor capital while battery metals companies struggle for attention despite solid fundamentals. Electric Royalties CEO Brendan Yurik highlights this imbalance, noting that lithium prices have risen 80% over the past year—matching gold—while copper trades near record highs. Yet, unlike gold, battery metals have not seen comparable investment flows.This gap is largely driven by investor familiarity and perceived risk. Gold benefits from its long-standing reputation as a stable store of value, while many critical minerals such as manganese, graphite, and vanadium remain poorly understood. Battery metals also face concerns around price volatility, evolving technologies, and past project failures, including significant cost overruns that have undermined confidence.However, the sector is maturing. Pricing transparency has improved significantly, supply chains are stabilizing, and technical knowledge has advanced as more projects move into production. Yurik believes these developments will reduce risk and limit extreme price swings seen in earlier years.A major driver of future demand is the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, which is expected to increase copper consumption by 50% over the next two decades. This adds to existing demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and grid expansion—creating a strong long-term growth outlook for battery metals that contrasts with gold’s relatively static demand profile.Electric Royalties positions itself as deeply undervalued, with a market capitalization under $20 million despite a portfolio that could significantly enhance the value of much larger mining companies. As new investors enter the mining sector—initially drawn by gold—there is potential for capital to gradually shift toward critical minerals as understanding improves.Overall, the battery metals royalty sector appears to be at an inflection point, combining strong demand growth with improving market fundamentals, yet still awaiting broader investor recognition.Learn more: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/electric-royaltiesSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

May 15, 2026Episode 9514 min

Nickel’s Long-Term Bull Cycle Gains Momentum Amid Supply Constraints

Recording date: 12th May 2026The global nickel market is showing notable stability, with prices holding within a narrow band of $18,500 to $20,000 per ton and currently hovering just below $19,000. This resilience is largely driven by structural changes in supply management, particularly from Indonesia, the world’s dominant nickel producer. In coordination with the Philippines, Indonesia has adopted policies to better control supply and support pricing, marking a shift away from historically volatile market dynamics.A key feature of Indonesia’s strategy is the redistribution of value within the supply chain. Domestic mining companies now receive roughly 50% higher revenues per ton of ore, while government tax intake has increased significantly. These gains have largely come at the expense of foreign—especially Chinese—processing firms. The alignment of economic interests among miners and policymakers makes these policies difficult to reverse, reinforcing a higher long-term price floor.At the same time, the nickel market faces a deep structural supply constraint. Despite demand rising tenfold since the 1980s to nearly five million tons annually, there have been no major new laterite discoveries. Most viable reserves remain concentrated in Indonesia, limiting diversification of global supply. Western project pipelines are especially thin, with few advanced developments competing for investment capital.Amid this backdrop, Canada Nickel has reached a major milestone, completing draft permitting requirements after a four-year process and targeting final approval in early summer. This positions the project to benefit from Canada’s recently announced $25 billion funding initiative for critical minerals.Meanwhile, industry developments—including sanctions impacting Sherritt’s Cuban operations and progress in deep-sea mining—highlight both geopolitical risks and emerging alternatives. Overall, constrained supply, strategic policy shifts, and limited new projects point to a supportive medium-term outlook for nickel prices.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

April 29, 2026Episode 9416 min

Nickel Enters a New Era as Indonesia Tightens Supply and Prices Surge

Recording date: 28th April 2026The global nickel market has entered a structural transformation, shifting from cyclical volatility to a tightly managed pricing paradigm. Driven by tightening supply and rising input costs, nickel prices have surged to $19,200 per ton, firmly on track toward an anticipated target range of $20,000 to $21,000.At the heart of this shift is Indonesia, the world’s dominant nickel producer, which has effectively assumed a quasi-OPEC role. By replacing its three-year ore quota system with one-year allocations, Indonesian authorities can now dynamically control market supply. The immediate impact of this strategy is already visible: Eramet recently placed its Weda Bay mining operation on care and maintenance after exhausting its 12-million-ton annual quota. Indonesia’s strategy appears carefully calibrated to stabilize prices around the $20,000 to $21,000 mark. This sweet spot ensures highly attractive margins for domestic producers while remaining safely below the $22,000 threshold required to incentivize the restart of competing Western Australian operations.Compounding the supply squeeze are skyrocketing input costs across the supply chain. Sulfur prices have surged past $1,000 per ton—a drastic climb from $150 just 18 months ago. For high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) producers, these soaring costs add $1,000 to $1,200 per ton to production expenses. This cost-push inflation is further exacerbated by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens critical sulfur imports. Meanwhile, globally-watched LME nickel inventories have dropped by 10,000 tons over the past two months, signaling a rapidly tightening market.On the demand side, a recent 4% to 5% increase in stainless steel prices is triggering strong restocking cycles, which is expected to sustain healthy consumption through the year-end despite broader economic uncertainties. As Western nations defensively react—highlighted by Canada’s new $25 billion sovereign wealth fund for critical minerals—the industry must navigate a new era where strategic state management heavily dictates global prices.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

March 18, 2026Episode 9136 min

Copper Bottomed - How Geopolitical Risks May Favour Certain Copper Jurisdictions

Recording date: 13th March 2026The global copper market faces an unprecedented supply crisis as development timelines have tripled from six years in the 1990s to 18 years currently, with the United States experiencing delays of 29 years from discovery to production. This dramatic expansion in project timelines comes as 52% of copper projects at feasibility stage remain stalled, with 75% of delays attributed to social and environmental opposition rather than economic or technical challenges.Current market dynamics present a complex picture. Copper prices remain elevated at approximately $5.81 per pound, yet inventory levels across global exchanges have reached historic highs exceeding one million tons. While these elevated stockpiles typically signal potential price corrections, underlying supply constraints suggest a tightening market ahead, particularly as the US government's $12 billion critical minerals reserve program may absorb portions of existing inventories.Geopolitical disruptions compound supply concerns. The Straits of Hormuz closure has created a sulfuric acid shortage, with Gulf region supplies representing 44% of global seaborne sulfur. Middle Eastern spot prices have surged 200% year-over-year, threatening African oxide copper producers in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo who depend entirely on imported sulfuric acid for hydrometallurgical processing operations.Analysis of 77 major copper mines reveals a troubling paradox: while brownfield exploration successfully expanded resource bases by 75% since 2010, actual production increased merely 4% due to 14% grade degradation. This disconnect illustrates that resource growth fails to translate into proportional production increases as operations must process significantly greater tonnage at lower grades.A "renewable energy paradox" has emerged whereby jurisdictions with highest metal demand—driven by wind, solar infrastructure, and advanced economy consumption—maintain the strictest environmental regulations, effectively preventing domestic mining development. Against this backdrop, Chile has emerged as the preferred jurisdiction, offering established mining culture, existing infrastructure, and streamlined permitting relative to global peers, potentially supporting valuation premiums for well-positioned projects with near-term production pathways.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

February 25, 2026Episode 9014 min

Nickel Market Faces Structural Shift as Top Producers Coordinate Supply Discipline

Recording date: 24th February 2026The nickel market is experiencing a structural shift as Indonesia and the Philippines move toward coordinated supply management, driving prices above $18,000 per ton in late February 2026. This represents a nearly 5% single-day gain and marks a significant departure from the price pressure that has characterized the market over the previous three years.The most dramatic development involves Indonesia's aggressive quota reduction for Eramet, one of the world's largest nickel producers. The Indonesian government slashed Eramet's ore quota from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, effectively removing approximately 300,000 tons of nickel from the market—roughly 10% of global supply. This action demonstrates Indonesia's commitment to supply discipline and may signal a pattern of targeting publicly reporting Western companies that must disclose such cuts, while reductions affecting private Indonesian operators remain invisible to markets.Indonesia and the Philippines have formalized their cooperation through the Indo Nickel Corridor, a working group established between the mining associations of both countries. While not officially a cartel, this coordination between the world's two largest nickel ore suppliers represents a fundamental shift in market dynamics. The Philippines supplies over 300,000 tons annually, and joint coordination aims to ensure producers can achieve profitable returns rather than oversupplying a limited resource.Physical market indicators are confirming the price rally's sustainability. Philippine ore prices to Indonesia have increased notably, and the Philippine rainy season running through March typically constrains ore availability, supporting expectations for prices in the $18,500 to $20,000 range through the first quarter.Additional supply disruptions, including Sherritt International's operational curtailments in Cuba due to fuel shortages, are adding marginal tightness. Meanwhile, improved investor sentiment is evident in successful capital raises by junior nickel companies and Vale's sale of its Thompson asset to Exiro Minerals, which has committed several hundred million dollars to revive production at the long-declining operation.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

February 9, 2026Episode 8918 min

Nickel Market Eyes $20,000 as Supply Discipline Meets Surging Demand

Recording date: 5th February 2026The nickel market is establishing a more constructive outlook in early 2026, supported by Indonesian supply discipline and robust demand fundamentals. In a recent market discussion, Canada Nickel CEO Mark Selby outlined the key factors driving nickel prices and provided updates on the company's flagship Crawford project.Nickel prices have settled into a $16,500-$18,500 per ton trading range after briefly exceeding $19,000 in early January. The strength is underpinned by Indonesia's commitment to flat-to-down ore production targets of 250-260 million tons for 2026. This supply discipline, combined with prices for nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and stainless steel all reaching three-year highs, indicates genuine market tightening rather than speculative positioning.Selby expects nickel to move toward $20,000 per ton within the coming month as production data confirms Indonesian adherence to its targets. The country's strategy balances maximizing royalty revenues and improving trade balances while preventing prices from rising high enough to incentivize significant new global production. Indonesia has latitude to manage supply up to the $22,000 per ton range before triggering meaningful supply responses.Electric vehicle demand continues driving market growth, with underlying expansion of approximately 20% annually. Europe posted 30% growth, China 17%, and the rest of world 48%, as the lithium supply chain completes its destocking phase. Combined with stainless steel demand, the nickel market requires approximately 200,000 tons of new annual supply—equivalent to seven Crawford phase-one projects—just to meet 6-7% demand growth.Canada Nickel announced two significant milestones: appointing Ausenco as lead engineer for the Crawford project's process plant and infrastructure, and securing expanded bridge financing from Auramet. These developments position the company to target construction commencement by year-end 2026, subject to finalizing government partnerships. The limited pipeline of new nickel districts globally makes projects like Crawford increasingly valuable as Indonesian grade constraints emerge toward decade-end.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

January 15, 2026Episode 8820 min

Indonesian Mining Restrictions Send Shockwaves Through Global Nickel Market

Recording date: 14th January 2026The nickel market experienced significant volatility in early 2026, with prices climbing $2,200 per ton to reach $18,650 following Vale's announcement of mining permit delays at its Indonesian operation. This development provided concrete evidence that Indonesian export restrictions represent material operational impacts rather than regulatory posturing. The publicly traded company's disclosure requirements made it an effective vehicle for authorities to demonstrate commitment to supply constraints.The price movement's legitimacy was confirmed through corresponding increases across the entire supply chain. Nickel pig iron prices rose 8-9% over two weeks, while stainless steel increased 6%. Most notably, mixed hydroxide precipitate payable levels remained at 88.5% despite volatility, indicating processors remain confident in demand fundamentals. These coordinated movements suggest genuine supply-demand dynamics with consumers actively restocking inventories after a period of restraint.The timing of Indonesian restrictions coincides with seasonal weakness in alternative supply sources. The Philippines, which produces half its annual nickel ore output in Q3, generates only one-quarter of that volume during Q1. This eliminates the most obvious alternative precisely when Indonesian restrictions take effect. Market observers anticipate prices could reach $20,000 per ton during the January-March quarter as Chinese processors face mounting pressure to secure material amid declining ore inventories.Against this backdrop of supply concentration risk, Ontario moved decisively to support domestic production. Canada Nickel's Crawford project received "One Project, One Process" designation, making it the only Canadian project with both federal Major Projects Office endorsement and provincial accelerated permitting. Ministers Stephen Lecce and George Pirie emphasized moving at "lightning speed" and "full-tilt" to develop what they called critical infrastructure for ending China's critical mineral dominance.The political support extends beyond rhetoric to practical financing assistance, with officials acknowledging these projects require public capital to reach construction. The government's commitment includes developing not just a mine but an entire domestic supply chain encompassing processing and downstream alloy production.Canada Nickel reported a 46% increase in contained nickel at its Reid deposit, bringing the total resource to 5 million tonnes. Reid demonstrates superior economics compared to Crawford, featuring nearly half the strip ratio, one-third less overburden, and 15% higher chromium grades. The deposit remains open in multiple directions with over 40% of geophysical targets still unexplored, representing one of nine resources identified in the Timmins Nickel District.This district-scale opportunity positions the region as a long-term production center. While Crawford will serve as the initial project advancing toward year-end construction, the company believes several other deposits, including Reid, may prove even more valuable.Corporate activity has accelerated alongside strengthening prices. Nickel 28 announced an 8% share buyback, while South Korea's Sphere Corp acquired 10% of Indonesia's Excelsior Nickel Cobalt project at a $2.4 billion valuation. However, internal analysis reveals 99% of public mining equity raised over the past two years concentrated in gold, silver, and copper, leaving just 1% for other minerals. This capital constraint underscores the importance of government participation in financing critical minerals development as governments increasingly view these projects through a national security lens rather than purely economic terms.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

January 15, 2026Episode 8623 min

Copper Industry Faces Structural Supply Shortage Starting 2026

Recording date: 4th December 2025The global copper market is approaching a critical supply crunch as electrification and decarbonization drive unprecedented demand growth while new mine development stalls, according to analysis by Merlin M Johnson, CEO of Fitzroy Minerals. Despite nominal copper prices appearing strong above $5 per pound, real prices measured in gold have declined 80% from historical peaks, reflecting nearly two decades of subdued demand and robust mine supply following the 2008 financial crisis.The outlook has transformed dramatically as electrification accelerates. Global electricity demand grew 4.3% in 2024, substantially exceeding overall energy demand growth of 2.2% and GDP expansion of 3.2%. Electrification and decarbonization now represent approximately 30% of total copper demand, with electric vehicles requiring two to three times more copper than conventional vehicles. The International Energy Agency projects copper demand growth at 2.6% annually through 2035, requiring 600,000-700,000 tons of new supply each year.However, new project approvals have fallen dramatically short, averaging under 300,000 tons annually for three consecutive years - roughly half of requirements. The industry lost 500,000-800,000 tons of capacity in 2024 through various disruptions, while social license issues, indigenous rights concerns, and permitting challenges constrain development across multiple jurisdictions.Chile, producing 5.4 million tons representing 24% of global output, exemplifies the industry's mature economics. Despite $83 billion in planned investment through 2034, Chilean production is projected to increase by only 100,000 tons. BHP's Escondida mine will see production decline 20% from 1.2 million to 1.0 million tons despite $5-6 billion in spending.These dynamics point toward sustained deficit conditions beginning in 2026, with prices projected to reach $20,000-30,000 per ton (above $9 per pound) from current levels around $11,000-12,000 per ton to incentivize necessary supply additions and offset extreme capital intensity in modern copper mining.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

January 15, 2026Episode 8735 min

Nickel's New Era: Rising Prices, Growing EV Demand, and Major Projects Moving Forward

Recording date: 30th December 2025The nickel market is experiencing a fundamental transformation as Indonesia's coordinated supply management strategy drives prices from $14,200 to $16,500 per ton since mid-December 2025, with further advances toward $18,500-$20,000 expected . Indonesia, which controls approximately two-thirds of global nickel supply, has implemented multiple policy measures including reducing mining licenses from three-year to one-year terms, closing mines for forestry violations, and banning new HPAL and NPI processing plants . These measures respond to declining saprolite ore grades that have dropped by double-digit percentages year-over-year, representing a calculated effort to maximize value from finite resources .Global electric vehicle sales reached 18.5 million units through November 2025, up 21% year-over-year, with Europe growing 33%, China 19%, and rest-of-world surging 48% . North America's 1% decline reflects policy reversals under the Trump administration, though strengthened Chinese content restrictions benefit North American and European nickel suppliers . The underlying EV growth rate of 20-25% supports long-term nickel demand, particularly for premium and long-range vehicles requiring nickel-intensive battery chemistries .Prime Minister Mark Carney designated Canada Nickel's Crawford project as a National-Building Project in December 2025, targeting year-end 2026 construction start with dedicated federal financing and accelerated permitting support . The company has expanded to eight resources in the Timmins Nickel District containing over 20 million tonnes of nickel, creating district consolidation potential as Crawford alone is valued at several billion dollars against the company's C$300 million market capitalisation .The International Nickel Study Group forecasts a 300,000-ton surplus for 2025, yet exchange inventories increased only 100,000 tons during the year and just 10,000 tons in November-December despite reported monthly surpluses of 60,000 tons . This persistent disconnect suggests official forecasts substantially overstate surplus conditions as Indonesian ore grades decline faster than models capture . The combination of Indonesian pricing discipline, underappreciated demand fundamentals, and advancing North American projects signals materially different market conditions for 2026 compared to the Chinese-controlled price suppression that characterised 2024-2025 .Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com