Oil, Jobs, and $2.4 Trillion in AI Spending: Top 3 This Week
The most popular part of the show — the three things I want individual investors focused on before making decisions over the next couple of weeks. First, the US-Iran conflict and oil. Talk of a deal keeps moving crude, but the real question is whether any deal holds. I look at Brent versus WTI, US gasoline at $4.09 a gallon, Canadian pump prices, and OPEC+ approving another 188,000 barrels per day from September — which effectively unwinds the 1.65 million barrel cut agreed to back in 2023. My view is that fair value for WTI sits closer to $50-$60 than $90-$100, and that's exactly why I'd only own an oil stock that pays a dividend. Second, jobs and inflation. Canadian and US employment numbers land Friday, August 7th, with CPI and PPI following on August 12th and 13th. US job creation has been slowing each month, expectations are for just 57,000, and three of Canada's last six months have been negative. Headline CPI at 3.5% and core at 2.6% are still well above the 2% target. Third, and to me the biggest question of this earnings season: is the tech spend justified? The four largest data centre players have now committed $2.4 trillion — more than their free cash flow. Meta and Alphabet were punished hard for it despite excellent earnings and 82% cloud growth at Google, while Amazon and Microsoft were rewarded for very similar spending. The difference may come down to how well each one explained the return on investment.
