The AFIRE Podcast

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Apr 2026

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AFIRE is the association for international real estate investors focused on commercial property in the United States. www.afire.org

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April 22, 202623 min

The Starter Home Crunch: Who Gets to Build? | Tony Avila, Avila Real Estate Capital

A nationwide housing crisis is pricing out millions of would-be homeowners. Conventional wisdom suggests the problem is demand, as in, too much of it. But what if the problem instead involves the supply side of the equation — namely, how and where we build? In conversation with Tony Avila of Avila Real Estate Capital, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson explores why attainable single-family homes are so scarce. The reasons include decade-long entitlement battles and loopy land loans that most institutions hope to avoid. Avila explains how his firm funds regional developers and partners with major homebuilders, while targeting the “sweet spot” of American incomes. Also on the agenda: Migration trends, policy missteps and why the next decade is shaping up to be the world’s biggest housing construction opportunity. LINKS Visit the Avila Real Estate Capital website https://www.avilacapllc.com/ To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences: Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 – Why housing feels impossible for many right now 00:36 – Welcome to the AFIRE Podcast 00:49 – Meet Tony Avila 01:15 – What’s driving the home affordability crunch 02:06 – Entitlements that take decades 03:54 – Funding local land developers 04:24 – Why land loans are so hard 05:19 – Developers turned specialist lenders 06:19 – Working with institutional capital 09:26 – Builders as LPs and takeout buyers 11:10 – Biggest risks to housing projects 12:43 – Rates, war and buyer confidence 15:39 – Do millennials really hate owning? 17:35 – 8 million homes in 10 years 19:03 – Where new homes should be built

March 10, 202630 min

Putting AI to Work in Real Estate

How can investors gain a competitive edge when seeking deals in the hospitality sector? How can hotels use AI to improve the guest experience? And how can hospitality operators use AI to run hotels more efficiently? AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson explores the topic with the co-founder and managing partner of AWH Partners, Russ Flicker, about how his $2 billion hospitality platform leverages proprietary data and AI to make smarter decisions. When used correctly, Flicker says, AI can help investors to focus on the right deals, optimize operations, and enhance the guest experience. The idea is to turn information into actionable insight and competitive advantage. LINKS Visit the AWH Partners website https://www.awhpartners.com/ To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences: Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 Introduction 00:57 Russ Flicker on AWH Partners 01:45 AI and data-driven hospitality investing 02:56 Submarket focus vs. traditional comp sets 05:00 Evaluating hotel metrics and amenities 06:33 Balancing gut instinct and data 09:14 Building a data-first culture 12:28 Hospitality market trends 15:05 Transaction constraints and rising costs 16:59 AI for deal focus and operational efficiency 18:22 AI in revenue and guest experience 21:36 Understanding customer behavior 24:40 Privacy, data protection, and AI tools 27:45 Future outlook for hospitality 29:43 Closing remarks

February 20, 202637 min

2026 Economic Outlook

What happens when uncertainty shakes the global economy, and investors start questioning where to put their money? In this episode, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson talks with Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi about slowing job growth, shifting trade and immigration policies, and the market volatility that has investors eyeing gold, silver, crypto, and real estate. Zandi highlights both the risks of a potential recession and the opportunities in U.S. commercial real estate, where prices have corrected significantly. The near term may present “bouts of real anxiety,” says Zandi, but in the long term, he adds, “I’m confident that we’ll be fine.” LINKS Mentioned in the episode: Trump taps ex-Fed insider Warsh to lead world's top central bank https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-former-fed-official-warsh-run-fed-2026-01-30/ To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences: Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 Introduction 00:36 Market uncertainty and investor confusion 00:56 Mark Zandi’s background and perspective 02:19 Humility in today’s economy 03:24 De-globalization and safe-haven assets 05:45 U.S. commercial real estate as opportunity 07:21 CRE market corrections and valuations 08:59 Relative attractiveness for international investors 10:29 Single-family rental market overview 11:54 Affordability challenges and workforce housing 14:37 Local variations and political complexity 15:16 Job growth stall and recession risk 17:33 Fed rate cuts and policy pressures 20:24 Long-term rates and equilibrium forecasts 22:22 Inflation concerns and consumer impact 25:35 AI, tech investment, and data center boom 26:42 Potential bubbles and market corrections 30:06 Long-term growth perspective for real estate 31:06 Bumps ahead: cyber events and AI oversight 32:35 Optimism: U.S. economy resilience 34:06 Historical perspective and maintaining cool heads

February 10, 202637 min

Future City: The Meaning of Buildings

What is the future of the built environment? The National Building Museum in Washington, DC, where AFIRE members tour this week during our Winter Conference, is a museum about the world we design and build. The museum’s exhibits celebrate building architecture, design, engineering, construction—and the act of urban planning. But most of all, it’s a showcase for the imagination and ambitions of those who help create what we call real estate. In this podcast, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson interviews James Ball, the National Building Museum’s director of future cities, about the past, present and future of the structures we exist in every day. This conversation is geared to people who invest in developing buildings around the world. LINKS To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences: Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/ Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/ Find the National Building Museum on the web here: https://nbm.org/ Ball discusses the NBM’s new exhibit, Coming Together: https://nbm.org/exhibitions/coming-together/ The NBM’s online initiative, I Hope This Becomes: https://ihopethisbecomes.nbm.org/ Discussed during the episode was Donella Meadows, the environmental scientist behind The Limits of Growth: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donella_Meadows KEY MOMENTS 00:00 Introductions 01:30 What is the National Building Museum? 03:05 Role of built environment in society 05:30 History of the building that houses the NBM 07:58 How our built world shapes us 09:41 Future of the city 11:50 Starchitect fallacy and the genius theory of urban planning 14:44 New NBM exhibit: Coming together 18:02 Destructive development narratives 21:20 How to make buildings beautiful 23:50 Museums’ role in real estate 26:01 Role of the building user 28:25 City as a multi-generational yet still incomplete project 30:25 Message to building industry 33:50 New moment in city building 35:18 AFIRE visits the NBM 36:20 Wrap up

January 28, 202633 min

Success Story: How to Convert Office to Residential

Can office buildings from the 1970s and 80s–often dismissed as "garbage”—be the key to solving the US housing crisis? While conventional wisdom says these deep-floor-plate structures are "useless" and that we need to "scrape" them all, Robert Seldin, Managing Principal of Madison Highland and developer of the Three Collective complex in Falls Church, Virginia, has proven the skeptics wrong. In this episode timed to appear before the AFIRE Winter Conference tours Three Collective, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson explores the right way to convert office to residential, and how one "impossible" asset became profitable. LINKS To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences: Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/ Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/ Seldin is the Managing Principal of Madison Highland and developer of Three Collective: https://www.threecollective.com/ Madison Highland is a developer of Three Collective: https://www.threecollective.com/ KEY MOMENTS 0:00 – Are 1970s office buildings too "useless" to convert? 2:30 – What makes a mid-century office building a good "substrate" for housing? 4:37 – How do you solve deep floor plate issues in office-to-residential conversions? 7:02 – Why is converted office space higher quality than new wood-frame construction? 10:02 – How can you repurpose extra office elevators during a conversion? 13:43 – Do office-to-residential conversions have enough parking? 18:40 – How is remote work changing multifamily building requirements? 22:35 – What is the cost and timeline for an office-to-apartment conversion? 26:38 – How fast do converted office apartments lease up? 28:10 – Is the office conversion trend the new "Soho Loft" revolution?

January 12, 202655 min

Commercial Real Estate and the Cycles of History with Fourth Turning author Neil Howe

How will demographics affect commercial real estate investing? How will changes in generational characteristics affect opportunities in US property markets? Neil Howe is an author of The Fourth Turning and The Fourth Turning is Here. An expert in generational demographics who is credited as one of the coiners of the term “millennial”, Howe discusses the cycles of history and their implications for cross-border investors in this wide-ranging conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson. LINKS To hear the globe’s top experts discuss opportunities in US property markets, register for future AFIRE conferences: Winter Conference 2026 in Washington, DC https://www.afire.org/events/wc2026/ Summer Conference 2026 in Tokyo https://www.afire.org/events/tokyo26/ Watch Neil Howe’s POV https://youtu.be/qFm_tFmgBj8 Recent Neil Howe books include: The Fourth Turning https://www.amazon.com/s?k=the+fourth+turning The Fourth Turning Is Here https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734/ The thinking behind Howe’s theories on the cycles of history: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory Howe is the managing director of demography at Hedgeye Risk Management: https://app.hedgeye.com/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 – How demographics is one of the most powerful factors for investors. 00:54 – Who is Neil Howe? 01:25 – Why is Neil Howe thinking about Investing and future casting? 02:35 – Can the meaning of being 60 change over time? 02:57 – What are the origins of generational demography? 04:02 – Did we overestimate long-term care this decade? 05:05 – Will home-oriented care redefine the future of healthcare? 06:28 – Could Gen X be America’s next leadership generation? 07:55 – Do crises reform the cycles of American history? 08:20 – Are infrastructure-related investments shaped by dark periods? 09:06 – How did the Great Depression and WWII shape generations? 14:25 – Are we entering a new era of anti-globalization? 16:37 – Are we entering the Fourth Turning now? 17:12 – Are nations hoarding resources to prepare for crisis? 18:32 – What are the hallmarks of the late Fourth Turning? 21:55 – How can real estate investors respond to rising inflation? 22:47 – Can inflation be controlled in a de-globalizing world? 23:07 – Why can’t we effectively tackle inflation politically? 24:53 – Is winning the US election now more important than governance? 25:50 – Are voters settling for “not the other guy”? 26:10 – What steps lead to renewed community today? 27:07 – Can understanding history guide today's investments? 29:15 – Why does Southern migration keep accelerating? 32:09 – Are rising risks changing Sun Belt investments? 35:45 – Can old lake cities thrive again? 36:30 – Is the lack of public education a deal-breaker for families? 39:23 – Are pension costs the hidden urban challenge? 40:46 – What’s driving rural decline but urban stability? 44:54 – How does age influence where people choose to live? 50:41 – Are we building the right types of housing for today?

September 2, 202526 min

Tax Drama: New US Policy Impact on Cross-Border Investors

The One Big Beautiful Bill is now signed into law, prompting questions about tax risks, retaliatory measures, and impacts on U.S. real estate. So what does it all mean for cross-border investors in property markets? AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson sat down with DLA Piper tax partner Shiukay Hung to discuss the impact of the bill. “The Big Beautiful Bill is a very interesting piece of legislation,” says Hung, “Perhaps it's one of the few tax legislations in recent memory that came with a lot of tax drama.” The bill, which aimed to maintain tax cuts, proposed a 50% retaliatory tax on foreign investors from countries with unfair tax practices, and could have significantly affected investment returns. Despite initial concerns, the retaliatory tax provision, Section 899, was dropped before passing. Now that the bill is law, how should cross-border investors weigh domestic tax exemptions against international treaties, and what role does the bond market play in shaping policy? It’s all in the latest episode of the AFIRE podcast. LINKS Register for the 2025 AFIRE Annual Member Meeting Sept. 9-10 in NYC https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/ Read Shiukay’s paper on the Big Beautiful Bill https://www.dlapiper.com/en-ca/insights/publications/2025/06/litigation-funding-tax-and-retaliatory-tax Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 https://www.afire.org/summit/ Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: https://www.afire.org/podcast/202515cast/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 01:43 Welcome Shiukay Hung, Partner & Co-Chair, DLA Piper 01:51 Cross-border investor concerns 03:55 How big was the retaliatory tax threat? 06:26 What does the bill mean now? 08:31 Section 899 is gone, but the risk remains 11:45 What should investors be paying attention to? 13:45 Can the bond market keep us in check? 16:43 Who really influenced policy? 19:43 What investors are missing? 22:16 Final remarks

August 21, 202544 min

CRE Status Update: New York City

For the first time ever, New York City Economic Development Corporation is staging a special Investor Summit in collaboration with AFIRE for international institutional capital that's focused on US property investing. With the summit in mind, AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson sat down with chief operating officer of NYCEDC, Melissa Román Burch, for a pulse check on New York City’s CRE environment. “New York City is an engine that is always thinking about growth,” says Burch. Currently, New York City Mayor Eric Adams has set a goal of creating 500,000 housing units over the next 10 years, with roughly 30,000 units expected to come from office-to-residential conversions. Meanwhile, two new trophy office skyscrapers have broken ground, totaling about 2 million square feet of new infrastructure. Looking ahead, the city projects 400,000 green-collar jobs by 2040, underscoring New York’s commitment to both economic growth and sustainability. The conversation covers the key sectors driving momentum—office, housing, energy, and transportation—while also asking the bigger questions: Where are the opportunities hiding? How will office-to-residential conversions reshape neighborhoods? And what will New York look like in five years? LINKS Register for the 2025 AFIRE Annual Member Meeting Sept. 9-10 in NYC https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/ Learn more about NYCEDC’s Business Development team https://choose.nyc/ Register for AFIRE/NYCEDC Investor Summit https://www.afire.org/uncategorized/amm25summitreg/ Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 https://www.afire.org/summit/ Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: https://www.afire.org/podcast/202514cast/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 01:23 Welcome back, Melissa Román Burch, COO of NYCEDC 01:48 AFIRE/NYCEDC Investor Summit Invitation 03:37 Pulse check: what’s happening in NYC? 06:51 How is NYC handling housing shortages? 12:57 How much will NYC change in the next 5 years? 16:14 What’s most exciting for institutional investors? 19:46 Is NYC just a financial center? 23:45 Connecting Brooklyn to the mainland 28:31 How are people reacting to the congestion pricing system? 33:17 What’s happening with green energy? 37:11 What can investors expect in NYC over the next decade? 41:30 Final remarks

August 13, 202537 min

Averting Polycrisis with Michael Neiberg

Geopolitics is rewriting the rules for commercial real estate investors. Can understanding history’s patterns be the key to figuring out what’s coming next? Who better to answer the question than Chair of War Studies at the U.S. Army War College, Michael Neiberg, who uses his expertise of Europe and the U.S. from 1914-1945 to offer valuable insights into today’s global challenges by drawing parallels with the early 20th century. “What we're dealing with now is not the same as other time periods,” Neiberg explains when discussing some of the economic parallels of the 1930s, which can “lead you down some pretty terrifying places, if you let them.” Instead, Neiberg shares some comforting news: “We are in some ways reverting to the norm.” This episode of the AFIRE podcast helps investors and strategists rethink their approaches amid a world that’s far less predictable than it once was. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. LINKS Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey www.afire.org/survey/h22025invite/ Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting www.afire.org/events/amm25/ Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLO…DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 www.afire.org/summit/ Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: www.afire.org/podcast/202512cast/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 01:23 Meet Michael Neiberg, Chair of War Studies, US Army War College 02:23 How does today’s pullback compare to the 20th century? 05:52 How should investors handle less free global trade? 09:13 How have politics and economics connected? 11:38 Important lessons from early 20th-century tech 12:59 How is governance changing? 15:45 Does history show that communication is key?

August 6, 202546 min

Economic Warfare (and the Lessons of History)

We’ve entered a new era of geopolitics. From globalization and free trade stabilized by American soft power, we’re now in a more transactional period characterized by nation states weaponizing their economies with tariffs, a global leadership vacuum and greater competition among the superpowers. So should this affect cross-border investment strategies? And can earlier periods in history teach us lessons about what to expect in future? Yes to both, says Jonathan Boff, who may be the perfect person to turn for guidance. Boff has a CV that straddles the domains of business and history, as a former investment banker who is now a professor of military history at the University of Birmingham. “My instinct is that we need to be aware of over-catastrophizing too soon,” says Boff in conversation with AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson. Boff suggests looking for lessons in the period immediately after the First World War, when the world transitioned from global free trade to another era of tariffs and trade barriers. In addition, Boff and Branson discuss the dangers represented by a weaker, more politically-beholden Federal Reserve, the need for more positive economic strategies; and the ways investors can prepare for highly unpredictable global events. LINKS Jonathan Boff’s book, Haig’s Enemy: Crown Prince Rupprecht and Germany’s War on the Western Front https://www.amazon.ca/s?k=9780199670475&i=stripbooks&linkCode=qs Take the AFIRE H2 2025 investor survey https://www.afire.org/survey/h22025invite/ Register for the AFIRE Annual Member Meeting https://www.afire.org/events/amm25/ Watch the AFIRE POV series of investor interviews https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLOrtO-j6M9aS8Hr7DHeg562A8-HQrxi8o Read the latest articles from Summit Journal Issue #18 https://www.afire.org/summit/ Access the episode webpage featuring links to audio-only platforms here: https://www.afire.org/podcast/202512cast/ KEY MOMENTS 00:00 AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson intro 00:53 Meet Jonathan Boff, Professor of Military History, University of Birmingham 01:46 What should investors focus on amid global conflicts? 05:11 How do we connect politics and global economic interests? 15:34 What can we expect from US-implemented tariffs? 20:38 What should investors know about unpredictable international markets? 26:35 How should investors go about trusting the Fed? 32:43 What most get wrong about military conflicts’ economic impact