SKEPTIC’S GUIDE TO INVESTING

Hosted by Steve Davenport, Clement Miller

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147

Latest episode

Jun 2026

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EN-US

About the show

Straight Talk for All, Nonsense for None About - Our podcast looks to help improve investing IQ. We share 15-30 minutes on finance, market and investment ideas. We bring experience and empathy to the complex process of financial wellness. Every journey is unique, so we look for ways our insights can help listeners. Also, we want to have fun😎 Your Hosts - Meet Steve Davenport, CFA and Clem Miller, CFA as they discus the latest in news, markets and investments. They each bring over 25 years in the investment industry to their discussions. Steve brings a domestic stock and quantitative emphasis, Clem has a more fundamental and international perspective. They hope to bring experience, honesty and humility to these podcasts. There are a lot of acronyms and financial terms which confuse more than they help. There are many entertainers versus analysts promoting get rich quick ideas. Let’s cut through the nonsense with straight talk! Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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60 recent

June 10, 202633 min

How War Inflation And Voter Anger Could Flip Congress

Please text and tell us what you likeThe midterms are not just a politics story. They are a pocketbook story, and the loudest message might be the giant number on the gas station sign. We connect the affordability squeeze to the Iran war and explain why even a real ceasefire may not translate into quick relief at the pump, keeping inflation anxiety alive for months. That day-to-day pressure shapes turnout, swing voters, and the mood that decides control of Congress.From there, we pull the thread into markets and monetary policy. We talk about the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and the brutal math of rising national debt interest expense, plus why political pressure for lower rates collides with sticky inflation. We also dig into voter trust and the power of corruption narratives, including how “government works for billionaires” can become a simple organizing message that shows up in campaign ads and kitchen-table conversations.We then look at structural forces that can surprise people, like redistricting that creates more purple districts that can flip fast in a wave year. We discuss the immigration enforcement wildcard, why ICE and CBP stories can flare back into the headlines, and how that can energize a base while pushing the middle away. Finally, we bring it back to investing with a candid market outlook: possible pullbacks, the appeal of gridlock for investors, and the geopolitical tail risk of China pressuring Taiwan and turning semiconductor chips into leverage.If this helped you think more clearly about midterm elections, inflation, gas prices, the Fed, and market volatility, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave us a review so more skeptical investors can find it. Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

June 2, 202633 min

Prediction Markets Are Not Investing

Please text and tell us what you likeBetting has gone mainstream, and now it’s wearing an “investing” costume. We take a skeptical look at prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi and ask what they really are: useful information tools, entertainment, or a fast track to bad financial habits. The moment you put real money on a short-horizon yes or no outcome, you’re not valuing a business or building a portfolio, you’re buying exposure to uncertainty. We also connect the prediction-market boom to the bigger trend we see in public markets: massive growth in options trading and the normalization of ultra-short-dated contracts. Leverage amplifies outcomes, but it also amplifies volatility and regret. We talk about the simplest dividing line we know between investing vs speculation: time frame. If you’re operating in days, you may be doing something that feels analytical while behaving like a coin flip. From there, we dig into the harder questions: does the wisdom of crowds actually show up in these markets, or do whale bets and low liquidity distort the “probabilities”? What happens when insider information leaks into a contract, and how mature is regulation and enforcement? We even explore why national security events and influence operations make prediction markets uniquely messy, and why we don’t love seeing financial media treat these odds like they carry the same credibility as traditional, regulated signals. If you’re curious about prediction markets, sports betting, options trading, and risk management, this conversation will help you set guardrails and keep your long-term plan intact. Subscribe, share the episode with a friend who’s tempted by “easy odds,” and leave a review with your take: are prediction markets signal, noise, or both? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

May 25, 202653 min

The OCIO Mindset: Stephanie Lang, CFA

Please text and tell us what you likeWhen a semiconductor ETF can rip higher in a month and a mega-cap can spike 35% in a day, it’s hard to know whether you’re watching real value being created or pure market heat. We sit down with Stephanie Lang, CFA, former Chief Investment Officer at a multibillion-dollar wealth management firm and founder of ArmorPoint Advisors, to get a fundamentals-first read on what’s actually driving returns and where investors can get hurt.We talk about how a CIO thinks in real time: balancing public and private markets, building a team, delegating manager research, and staying humble about what you don’t know. Stephanie shares the career moments that shaped her, including the lesson of taking good opportunities when they appear and the importance of advocating for yourself when you’re already doing the job. If you’re curious about OCIO services, investment committees, and how firms “institutionalize” their process, her perspective is practical and refreshingly direct.Then we move into the market. We dig into AI stocks, semiconductors, valuation discipline, and why earnings growth and PEG ratios can matter more than hype. We also tackle the rise of retail trading, meme-stock momentum, one-day options, and the creeping feeling that investing is turning into betting. Stephanie lays out a simple framework: diversify on purpose, keep liquidity buckets, and if you want to speculate, separate it from the money you can’t afford to lose. We close with crypto skepticism grounded in cash-flow logic, plus the potential impact of mega IPOs like SpaceX and AI leaders on benchmarks and investor behavior.If you found this helpful, subscribe, share it with a friend who’s feeling market whiplash, and leave us a review with your biggest question about AI investing and risk management.Stephanie Lang website:https://www.armorpointadvisors.com/Charity mentioned on Podcast:Mercy Care https://mercyatlanta.org/ Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

May 19, 202646 min

TikTok Politics Meets Billionaire Money

Please text and tell us what you likeNew York City can look unstoppable right up until incentives flip. We sit down with Fraser Rice to take the temperature inside the “belly of the beast” near Grand Central and talk about what a tax-the-rich political wave means for the business community, Wall Street, and anyone trying to build wealth in a high-cost, high-tax city. Ranked choice voting, media-savvy leadership, and symbolic fights with billionaires create headlines, but we keep pulling the thread that matters to investors: how quickly confidence and capital can move when people feel targeted instead of valued. We also get practical about the city’s real pressure points. Housing supply, zoning reform, rent regulation, and homelessness aren’t abstract policy debates, they shape whether New York stays livable for the talent and industries it depends on. Fraser shares why Class A commercial real estate can thrive even while affordability worsens, and why public safety “cover” can mask deeper leadership tests that show up later. The Ken Griffin and second-home tax conversation becomes a case study in how politics and economics collide when major employers can quietly reallocate jobs and investment across states. Then we widen the lens to the markets and what Fraser’s ultra high net worth clients are wrestling with: AI boom valuations that echo past bubbles, energy prices that pinch consumers, and interest rate uncertainty that can reprice everything. We walk through a margin-of-safety mindset, stress testing drawdowns, and bucketing risk over multi-year horizons. Finally, we dig into private credit: why the expected returns can be attractive, why illiquidity is the real cost, and why the rush to put private credit into 401(k)s should make long-term investors ask harder questions. If you found this useful, subscribe, share it with a friend, and leave a review. What’s the biggest risk you’re positioning for right now? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

May 14, 202656 min

Red Carpets Do Not Fix Supply Chains

Please text and tell us what you likeA summit can look monumental while changing almost nothing, and that gap is where investors get hurt. We take a hard look at the US China leader meeting and ask a simple question: what parts are pageantry, and what parts can actually move markets? Along the way, we challenge the familiar talking points about “opening China” and “reform,” and explain why those phrases often create more heat than light when you are making real portfolio decisions.From there we get practical about power and incentives. Governments want endorsement from big business, but companies like NVIDIA are built to pursue shareholder value, not national strategy. That tension shows up in export controls, chip designs that thread regulatory needles, and the broader AI race where usability may matter as much as raw compute. We also revisit Huawei and 5G as a reminder that “trust” is not only technical. Ownership structure, control, and political risk can be just as important.Then we land on the big risk: Taiwan. With a huge share of advanced semiconductor capacity concentrated there, even a blockade threat can reprice the entire AI trade, the semiconductor sector, and the global growth outlook. We connect that to near term distractions in the Middle East, shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, rare earth leverage, upcoming tariff actions, and why higher retail participation can make drawdowns sharper. If you care about semiconductor stocks, AI investing, China exposure, and geopolitical risk, this is the map we use to stay skeptical and stay solvent.Subscribe so you do not miss what comes next, share this with a friend who is heavy in semis, and leave a review if our framework helps. What is your biggest worry right now: Taiwan, tariffs, or valuations? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

April 28, 202638 min

SpaceX As An Investment

Please text and tell us what you likeThe next wave of mega-IPOs may not be another software company. It might be SpaceX, a business that blends satellite internet, rocket launches, and defense-adjacent capabilities into one name that could be too big for investors to ignore.We talk through what SpaceX actually is from an investing perspective: Starlink as a broadband communications network in orbit, launch services that benefit from reusable rocket economics, and the less-discussed military angle through programs like Starshield. That mix creates a real puzzle for anyone building a portfolio or benchmarking to an index. If SpaceX lands in major indexes, passive investors could end up with meaningful exposure whether they want it or not, so understanding the business model matters.We also get concrete about the risks: how “control” can shape outcomes for minority shareholders, why the Aramco comparison is useful as a framework, and why Elon Musk’s continuing influence is a genuine factor in the thesis. We pull lessons from Tesla’s recent history, including how subsidies and competition can change the story fast, and we pressure-test whether space is earlier or more mature than themes like AI.Finally, we bring it back to action: sensible position sizing, what to look for once financials and trading behavior become visible, and why waiting for the post-IPO dust to settle can beat FOMO. If you’re thinking about SpaceX IPO investing, Starlink valuation, or space and defense stocks, this is a grounded place to start. Subscribe, share this with a fellow investor, and leave a review with your take: would you buy SpaceX right away or wait? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

April 21, 202626 min

Tim Cook’s Apple

Please text and tell us what you likeTim Cook never led like a headline magnet, and that’s exactly why we wanted to stop and take his record seriously. With news swirling around Apple’s leadership structure and succession, we zoom out and ask a practical investor question: what does Cook’s style actually mean for Apple stock, for the Apple brand, and for the next decade of decision-making?We talk through why Apple became so hard to ignore in consumer technology: the iPhone-led ecosystem, the App Store and services growth, and the daily-life features that keep customers locked in across watch, earbuds, phone, and more. We also dig into the part of the Apple story that doesn’t fit neatly into a product launch, the geopolitical and supply chain reality. From US-China relations and tariffs to quiet negotiation and gradual manufacturing diversification into India and Vietnam, we outline why “corporate diplomacy” can be a competitive edge.Then we bring it back to investing. Apple is a mature giant now, which changes expectations, valuation sensitivity, and how dividends and capital allocation matter. We debate Apple’s measured approach to AI, what a next-generation leader like hardware executive John Ternus could bring, and why we think investors should look beyond PE ratios to the character and behavior of the CEO, especially when ego and self-promotion become risks.If you found this helpful, subscribe, share it with a friend who follows Apple, and leave a review with your take: how much should CEO personality influence an investing decision? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

April 15, 202657 min

The Last Amateur And The Investing Lessons In Golf

Please text and tell us what you likeMost people think greatness is about raw talent. Then you meet someone who wins because they never waste a shot, never waste a moment, and never pretend the work is optional. That’s what I remember from caddying for Jay Siegel at The Country Club in Brookline, and it’s why this conversation stuck with me for decades.I’m joined by author John Riley to talk about his biography The Last Amateur and the life of one of the most dominant career amateurs the game has ever seen. We dig into the hand injury that reshaped Jay’s future, the quiet intensity that rattled opponents, and the way he built a repeatable process that held up in match play, in major championships, and later on the Senior Tour. Along the way, we connect the dots to an investing mindset: discipline over drama, conservative strategy until the moment demands aggression, and the power of staying in the arena long enough for your best run to show up.We also talk about mentorship, family support, and integrity as competitive advantages, not nice extras. Jay’s standards, his calm under pressure, and his long record of giving back remind us that legacy is built in small choices repeated for years.If you care about golf history, mental toughness, performance psychology, or practical lessons for long-term investing, hit play. Subscribe, share this with a friend who loves the game, and leave a review with the biggest lesson you’re taking from Jay’s story.For access to The Last Amateur:https://store.faithandfamilypublications.com/products/the-last-amateur-hardcover?_pos=1&_psq=the+last+am&_ss=e&_v=1.0 Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

April 14, 202650 min

Straightening out the Strait of Hormuz

Please text and tell us what you likeA ceasefire headline is easy to trade. The Strait of Hormuz reality is harder: crowded sea lanes, mixed flags, sanctions workarounds, and one “accident” that can yank oil prices and risk assets in a single day. We dig into why the probability of disruption can stay high even when diplomats say the right words and why the nightmare scenario is an incident involving a Chinese-flagged oil tanker that forces a much wider response.We also get practical about the plumbing of global shipping. What does a flag actually signal, how do crews and registries affect perceived neutrality, and why are “shadow fleets” less about invisibility and more about insurance, sanctions evasion, and enforcement by groups like OFAC? That framework matters because markets often price the conflict like a simple regional story, while the mechanics of maritime trade make “friend vs foe” decisions messy under stress.Then we connect geopolitics to investing. We talk negotiation credibility, nuclear enrichment timelines, and how Israel’s strategy toward Hezbollah and the idea of “mowing the grass” can imply recurring conflict rather than clean resolution. Finally, we bring it back to portfolios: oil stocks versus crude, demand destruction at high energy prices, cash as an asset class, put options as a hedge, and why damage to LNG, pipelines, and other capital assets can keep inflation sticky and push the economy toward stagflation.If you want a clearer way to think about energy markets, sanctions, and portfolio risk when a chokepoint drives the news cycle, listen now. Subscribe, share this with a friend who watches oil, and leave a review with your take: do you expect normalization soon, or a long period of elevated volatility? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

April 7, 202628 min

Investing for Ourselves: Clem Miller

Please text and tell us what you likeA portfolio can look “wrong” on paper and still be rational in real life. We pull back the curtain on what we actually hold, why one of us is willing to sit on a huge cash position, and how a downside-first investing philosophy changes every decision. If your main goal is staying in the game through market volatility, this conversation is built for you.We dig into practical portfolio allocation: why bonds may fail as diversification when interest rates and duration drive prices, and why cash can be an intentional risk management tool rather than a lack of conviction. From there we get specific about how we evaluate equities using valuation and sentiment signals like the forward PEG ratio and short interest. The lens stays simple: protect the downside, stay flexible, and don’t confuse activity with skill.Geopolitical risk is the real-time backdrop, pushing a tactical tilt toward energy stocks. We explain how choosing companies with lower exposure to conflict regions can matter, why refiners can benefit through stronger refining margins, and what the crack spread says about profitability when oil prices move. Just as important, we spend time on the part most investors skip: the exit strategy. Clear sell rules can turn good picks into realized gains.We also revisit gold and why it may not behave like a textbook safe haven if sovereign sellers need liquidity for reconstruction. If you want a grounded framework for investing psychology, defensive portfolio construction, and disciplined selling, listen through to the end. Subscribe, share the show with a friend, leave a review, and tell us: what’s the one rule that drives your allocation decisions? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for NonePlease check out our other podcasts:https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.comDisclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.