SKEPTIC’S GUIDE TO INVESTING

Hosted by Steve Davenport, Clement Miller

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162

Latest episode

Aug 2026

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EN-US

About the show

Straight Talk for All, Nonsense for None About - Our podcast looks to help improve investing IQ. We share 15-30 minutes on finance, market and investment ideas. We bring experience and empathy to the complex process of financial wellness. Every journey is unique, so we look for ways our insights can help listeners. Also, we want to have fun😎 Your Hosts - Meet Steve Davenport, CFA and Clem Miller, CFA as they discus the latest in news, markets and investments. They each bring over 25 years in the investment industry to their discussions. Steve brings a domestic stock and quantitative emphasis, Clem has a more fundamental and international perspective. They hope to bring experience, honesty and humility to these podcasts. There are a lot of acronyms and financial terms which confuse more than they help. There are many entertainers versus analysts promoting get rich quick ideas. Let’s cut through the nonsense with straight talk! Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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60 recent

August 11, 202629 min

SpaceX Stock Whiplash And What Could Move It Next

Please text and tell us what you like SpaceX as a public stock looks like the future, right up until you try to price it. We open with the hard reality of volatility: a run from the IPO around the mid-100s to roughly 250, then a slide back near the low-100s. That swing forces a grounded investing question: what, specifically, drives value here over the next few years, and what is just narrative? We break SpaceX into the businesses investors are actually buying. Falcon 9 launches look like the established engine. Starlink satellite internet is a meaningful revenue generator, but profitability and durability still matter if you care about valuation instead of hype. Then there’s the massive, long-dated bet on bigger rockets and a Mars timeline, which can be inspiring while still being very hard to underwrite as “near-term commercialization.” If you’re searching for SpaceX IPO analysis, space stock catalysts, or Starlink profitability, this is the framework we keep coming back to. From there, we tackle the Musk wildcard: governance and structure. We debate the idea of combining SpaceX with Tesla, how voting control can tilt outcomes, and why constant reshuffling can feel like a shell game to shareholders who want stable expectations. We also connect the space thesis to something closer to cash flow: robots and autonomy. If self-driving data becomes the moat for humanoid robotics, does exposure become “defensive” even if you dislike the uncertainty? Subscribe for the upcoming conversations on energy and Iran and where we are with AI, and if you listen, share this with one investor friend and leave us a review. What would make you buy SpaceX, and what would make you walk away? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

August 11, 202625 min

What If Real Shortage Is Political Will

Please text and tell us what you like Oil doesn’t move on headlines, it moves on incentives, constraints, and timelines. We walk through the latest US-Iran-Israel-Gulf dynamics and translate the geopolitics into practical investing questions: what does Strait of Hormuz risk really mean for crude prices, inflation, and energy stocks, and what should a long-term investor do with all this volatility? We dig into the idea that Iran benefits by stretching negotiations and distributing the pain across the developed world that relies on Gulf energy flows. We also talk about how public goals can quietly shrink from sweeping military outcomes to a narrower focus on keeping shipping lanes functional, and why that shift matters for market pricing. Along the way, we challenge the “open or closed” framing of the strait, looking at alternative corridors, the months-long demining process, and the possibility of fees and restrictions that keep friction in the system even after a “deal.” On the investing side, we get specific about oil price scenarios, why volatility can favor traders over buy-and-hold portfolios, and how Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels and logistics constraints can tighten the range of policy options. Clem also shares current positioning in energy stocks like Exxon and ConocoPhillips within a cash-heavy portfolio, and we debate what could trigger a final spike in oil and what that would mean for recession risk alongside higher interest rates. If you want a clearer framework for energy investing during Middle East tensions, listen now, then subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review. What’s your base case for oil prices over the next few months? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

August 11, 202633 min

What If AI Growth Is Just Debt In Disguise

Please text and tell us what you like A $500 billion AI funding headline can sound like destiny, but we’re more interested in the mechanics and the weak links. Steve Davenport and Clem Miller trace the AI investment chain from money-losing model builders to the very real world of data centers, semiconductors, and the energy required to keep it all running. Then we ask the uncomfortable question that almost nobody wants to say out loud: what happens when a major backer finally says no? We dig into why calling AI “infrastructure” is both persuasive and misleading. Data centers can be long-lasting capital assets, but chips are on a short replacement cycle, more like maintenance than a bridge. That difference matters when you’re trying to value the AI capex cycle, understand who benefits when spending accelerates, and spot the risks when it slows. We also talk about debt, private credit, and how higher interest rates can turn an optimistic buildout into a fragile refinancing story. From there, we move into market signals. Forward earnings and forward PEG ratios can look precise while the assumptions get stretched by hype, so we explore a more grounded cross-check: short interest and what it may reveal about informed skepticism. If you’re investing in AI stocks, semiconductor stocks, or data center infrastructure, this conversation is built to help you think clearly about funding, cash flow, valuation, and what “growth” really costs. Subscribe for more skeptical market breakdowns, share this with a friend who’s all-in on AI, and leave a review with your take: slow deflation or a sharper unwind? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

August 6, 202630 min

Iran And Oman May Redraw Maritime Rules

Please text and tell us what you like A 21-mile-wide passage can move the world’s energy markets, and the Strait of Hormuz is the clearest proof. We sit down to unpack why this chokepoint keeps returning to the center of global geopolitics, oil shipping risk, and investor anxiety and why trying to treat it as “just a strait issue” quickly turns into a much bigger Iran question. Clem Miller lays out a provocative idea: a new regional equilibrium may be forming where Iran and Oman share a role in administering the strait, with other Gulf states quietly supporting the arrangement because continued escalation threatens their assets and stability. We talk through the geography that makes Oman unavoidable, what cooperation could look like in practice, and why leverage matters as much as firepower when the goal is to keep tankers moving and avoid a spike in oil prices. We also debate something most headlines skip: what counts as “war” when nobody declares it. From modern precedents to today’s blurred lines, we focus on the outcomes that shape policy and markets. Then we zoom out into maritime rules, including the Law of the Sea, territorial waters, exclusive economic zones, and the tricky question of fees or shared governance in narrow channels. If you care about freedom of navigation, Iran sanctions, Gulf security, and how geopolitical risk shows up in investing, this conversation will sharpen your framework. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows energy markets, and leave a review with your take on shared control of Hormuz. Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

August 6, 202641 min

Michigan’s Tight Senate Primary

Please text and tell us what you like A Senate primary in Michigan comes down to fewer than 10,000 votes and suddenly the whole midterm map feels more fragile and more interesting. We sit down to make sense of what Al Sayed’s narrow win on the Democratic side could mean in a working-class, auto-industry state where turnout, identity, and cost of living decide elections. We talk through why calling every progressive a “socialist” or “communist” is a blunt tactic that may not land with younger voters, and why a candidate can be progressive without being a Democratic Socialist. Clem lays out the idea that US politics can act like a circle, with populist frustration on the right and left sometimes converging around the same pain points: Medicare cuts, billionaire influence, and affordability. We also dig into Michigan’s unique electorate, including large Arab American communities in Detroit and Dearborn, and how Middle East policy, Israel, Netanyahu, and the Iran conflict could energize or alienate key voter blocs. Then we get concrete about election mechanics and risk: what the SAFE Act actually requires, why “just bring an ID” can hide a passport or birth certificate barrier, and how that could reshape turnout. We also game out institutional stress tests for the midterms, plus what all this political uncertainty means for investors watching oil price volatility and geopolitics. If this helped you think more clearly about politics and portfolio risk, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review. What do you think will matter more in 2026: affordability or turnout rules? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

July 24, 202632 min

Houthis Expand Shipping Chaos and Saudis Turn Nuclear

Please text and tell us what you like Oil markets do not just run on supply and demand, they run on geography. When a single chokepoint turns into a pressure valve, investors feel it fast through crude prices, inflation prints, and sudden risk-off moves. We sit down with Clem Miller to unpack why Iran’s leverage around the Strait of Hormuz keeps expanding, and how the Houthis in Yemen can extend that leverage into the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. We walk through who the Houthis are, how they built real military capability, and why shipping threats are more than theater. When tankers and container ships detour around the Cape of Good Hope, the world pays in time, fuel, and higher insurance, and that cost can show up everywhere from energy stocks to consumer prices. We also talk about what it means when militant groups become de facto governments, using Yemen and Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon to frame what “investable” really means when security and politics do not align. Then we pivot to a bigger question with huge market implications: Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions and the fading credibility of anti-nuclear proliferation. We cover why enrichment matters, why incentives change once countries are attacked or threatened, and where nuclear energy could become an investment theme despite financing, regulation, safety, and NIMBY constraints. We close with the risk that could dwarf everything: the Taiwan Strait, semiconductors, and how a blockade could shock a tech-heavy economy without a single shot fired. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows markets, and leave a review so more people can find the show. Which chokepoint do you think the market is pricing wrong right now? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

July 24, 202640 min

Tariffs Never Die

Please text and tell us what you like Tariffs are back again, and the part that should grab your attention is not the headline rate. It’s the way the justification keeps changing. We walk through how the administration appears determined to land on a broad 10% tariff, then sends trade lawyers searching for whatever statute can support it, even if the fit feels awkward and short-lived. We trace the sequence from emergency-style authority that courts rejected, to a balance of payments argument that only allowed a temporary window, to the newest pivot: a Section 301 approach tied to forced labor concerns rooted in the Trade Act of 1974. Along the way, we get specific about what “forced labor” can mean, why the current legal logic can be several steps removed from the goods actually entering the United States, and why that matters when the policy is applied to a huge share of global trade. If you care about markets, inflation, and planning, the big theme is policy durability. Tariffs that get implemented, challenged, and potentially refunded create uncertainty that businesses and investors can’t ignore. We also zoom out to the politics. Are tariffs really delivering manufacturing jobs, or are they mostly a signal meant to play well with certain voters? And if the “messy middle” and median voters care most about affordability, how does a tariff strategy land when it raises costs in the short run? If you’re building or protecting a portfolio, this is a practical conversation about how trade policy feeds into prices, corporate decisions, and risk management. If this helped you think more clearly about tariffs and investing, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review. What tariff claim do you want us to fact-check next? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

July 15, 202640 min

SK Hynix Vs Micron

Please text and tell us what you like Micron has become the default “AI memory” ticker for many US investors, but we’ve been asking a different question: what happens when a Korean heavyweight like SK Hynix becomes easier to buy through a US-traded ADR, and why has it often traded at a discount in the first place? We take that curiosity and turn it into a practical investor framework: compare the businesses, compare the market structure around them, and then decide whether the price gap is a gift or a warning label. We talk through what we know and what we still need to verify, including how “pure play” exposure differs between conglomerates and focused memory companies, and why valuation metrics like PE, price to sales, and price to book can look attractive while still hiding real risks. We also zoom out to the AI supply chain and explain why high bandwidth memory, DRAM demand, and data movement constraints matter, not just GPUs and CPUs. Then we pressure-test the optimistic narratives: can eye-popping margins persist, and are future growth assumptions creeping into fantasy territory? A big part of the conversation is the part many investors skip: ADR mechanics. We break down sponsored versus unsponsored ADRs, why US GAAP reporting requirements can change transparency, and why an ADR does not protect you from currency risk. We also cover Korea’s market access constraints and why MSCI still treats Korea as an emerging market, which can influence liquidity, investor participation, and ultimately valuation. If you’re considering SK Hynix vs Micron, or you simply want to understand how foreign stocks trade in US wrappers, listen along and challenge your assumptions with us. Subscribe, share this with a friend who’s chasing AI stocks, and leave a review with your take: is the discount opportunity real, or is it the market pricing in something you can’t ignore? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

July 14, 202644 min

Insider Ownership Beats Chasing Last Year’s Earnings

Please text and tell us what you like OWN Explainer Video: https://youtu.be/MSD8Msi7qcY The S&P 500 is supposed to be “the market,” but what if its biggest blind spot is the people actually running the companies? We bring on Haran Bakta, CFA, founder behind the OWN ETF, to walk through a different way to build an index: weight companies by insider ownership so leadership has real skin in the game. Along the way, we stay skeptical and press on the uncomfortable parts: when ownership helps, when it doesn’t, and how to avoid turning a smart idea into a cult of personality. We unpack why free-float adjusted indexes can behave in ways most investors never notice, including the strange reality that an index may effectively buy more of a company when a controlling insider sells or passes away. Haran explains the origin story, the painful work of collecting ownership data through years of proxy filings, and the rules behind the inside ownership index: starting from the S&P 500, selecting the top names by dollar value of insider ownership, and capping inputs to avoid a portfolio dominated by a handful of extreme holdings. From there we debate founders versus professional managers, culture versus control, and why last year’s earnings can be a misleading compass when innovation cycles shift fast, especially in technology and AI. We also cover performance claims, risk and drawdowns, the Sharpe ratio angle, fees and scaling, and why index construction matters as much as any headline narrative. If you care about index investing, corporate governance, founder-led companies, and long-term investing discipline, this conversation will give you a sharper framework and a few strong counterpoints to test it against. If this helped you think more clearly about incentives and leadership in your portfolio, subscribe, share the episode with a friend, and leave us a review. What’s your take: should insider ownership change how we index the market? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

July 10, 202642 min

The Four AI Gates Investors Need To Watch

Please text and tell us what you like AI is sucking up the oxygen in markets, but the real question for investors is simpler and tougher: what has to go right for trillions in spending to turn into durable profits? We sit down with Steve Gattuso, CIO at Courier Capital and longtime CFA leader, to map the “AI gates” we’re watching so we can tell the difference between real progress and a story that’s getting ahead of itself. We dig into the first gate, funding, because even the most profitable hyperscalers may not be able to self-fund capital expenditures at today’s scale without issuing debt, selling stock, or slowing buybacks. From there we move to bottlenecks: chips, materials, engineers, data center construction, power generation, grid upgrades, and even local resistance to new builds. These constraints don’t just affect tech stocks, they ripple through utilities, energy, industrials, and the broader economy, with real implications for short-term inflation and long-term productivity. Then we tackle the gates that decide who wins: returns on invested capital and willingness to pay. Token costs, enterprise budgets, and consumer price sensitivity can make or break business models, and that uncertainty matters even more when index concentration is high and so many 401(k)s sit inside market cap-weighted funds. We close with a grounded take on timing, risk, and how we think about options hedging as “insurance” when markets price perfection. If this helped you think more clearly about AI investing, subscribe, share it with a fellow investor, and leave a review. What’s your biggest AI risk: funding, bottlenecks, profitability, or demand? Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None Please check out our other podcasts: https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.