RiskMasters | Trailblazing Risk Leadership

Hosted by Julien Haye | Strategic Risk Leadership Expert | Author of The Risk Within

Business ManagementInterviews guests

Website RSS feed

Episodes

Latest episode

Nov 2026

Language

About the show

Join Julien Haye, Chief Risk Officer and author of The Risk Within, a groundbreaking book on psychological safety and decision-making in risk management, for insights on risk management from leaders and board directors. RiskMasters is the CPD-accredited podcast for risk managers and business leaders navigating strategic risk, enterprise risk and leadership challenges. The show explores how senior executives build strong business foresight and lead with purpose. In collaboration with Risk.net, each episode delivers thought-provoking conversations on leadership, resilience, and governance.

Listen to episodes

58 recent

November 14, 20266 min

How Behavioural Biases Distort Risk Decisions with Svetlana Kardan

The same financial risk information can produce materially different committee decisions, depending on how it is presented. In this RiskMasters — The Download , Svetlana Kardan , former HSBC Group Head of IRRBB and creator of Psychology of Treasury , explores how behavioural biases and organisational dynamics influence Treasury risk management and decision-making under pressure. Drawing on her experience across financial markets and Asset and Liability Management, Svetlana identifies three particularly dangerous behavioural biases. Sunk cost bias can make reversing a losing position psychologically more difficult than continuing to accept further losses. Groupthink can create the appearance of consensus even when individuals privately disagree, while deference to authority can lead people to follow the most senior person rather than those with the most relevant information. The conversation also examines what happens when commercial ambitions, Treasury constraints and risk appetite pull in different directions. Without clear priorities agreed in advance, decisions can become dominated by the most influential voices rather than the organisation's established risk boundaries. Perhaps the most revealing insight concerns how the presentation of information shapes collective judgement . Svetlana explains that presenting a single Economic Value of Equity (EVE) sensitivity figure can encourage committee members to treat an estimate as fact. Presenting a range of outcomes instead invites discussion about assumptions and uncertainty. Even the sequence matters. Leading with the worst-case scenario can make subsequent outcomes appear reassuring, while presenting the base case first can make the same worst-case scenario seem extreme. The underlying financial position remains unchanged, yet the committee's response can be materially different. This raises a fundamental challenge for risk governance: accurate information does not necessarily guarantee objective decisions when its interpretation is influenced by behavioural biases, hierarchy and presentation. In this extract: Why sunk cost bias can prevent institutions from reversing deteriorating financial positions How groupthink creates apparent consensus while concealing individual disagreement Why deference to authority can override more relevant information during a crisis How competing commercial objectives, Treasury constraints and risk appetite influence decisions Why agreed decision-making priorities can prevent the loudest voice from dominating How presenting risk as a range rather than a single figure changes committee discussions Why the sequence of base-case and worst-case scenarios can materially influence collective judgement This extract comes from my CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Svetlana Kardan , When Models Meet Behaviour: The Psychology of Treasury Risk . 🎧 Listen to the full episode of RiskMasters for the complete conversation on Treasury risk management, behavioural psychology, financial models, governance and decision-making under uncertainty. https://www.aevitium.com/post/cpd-svetlana-kardan-on-riskmasters

November 7, 2026Episode 1041 min

When Models Meet Behaviour: The Psychology of Treasury Risk with Svetlana Kardan

Why do sophisticated financial models still lead to poor decisions? Former HSBC Group Head of IRRBB Svetlana Kardan explores the psychology behind Treasury risk management. In this CPD-accredited episode of the RiskMasters Podcast , I speak with Svetlana, author and creator of Psychology of Treasury , about the human behaviours influencing balance sheet risk, liquidity management and financial decision-making. Drawing on more than 20 years of experience across international banking, Svetlana explains why sophisticated models can create false confidence, how historical assumptions become difficult to challenge, and why technically sound risk frameworks do not always produce good decisions. We explore interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB), reverse stress testing, liquidity crisis preparedness, behavioural biases and ALCO governance , including how the presentation of identical risk information can lead to very different committee decisions. 🎯 What You Will Learn Why sophisticated Treasury models can create an illusion of certainty. How behavioural assumptions influence IRRBB and balance sheet risk. How reverse stress testing exposes weaknesses in models and management actions. Why liquidity contingency plans must be tested, not simply documented. How groupthink, sunk costs and authority bias influence banking decisions. When waiting for better information becomes a risk in itself. How risk reporting and information framing influence ALCO decisions. How evidence-based challenge strengthens risk governance and leadership. 🕒 Episode Highlights 01:21 – From financial markets to Treasury leadership How curiosity about human behaviour shaped Svetlana's career. 07:14 – The psychology behind Treasury risk Why behavioural assumptions can drive significant IRRBB sensitivities. 11:31 – The illusion of model precision How estimates become mistaken for facts in financial risk decisions. 13:40 – When successful models become dangerous Why historical performance can reinforce normalcy bias. 15:41 – Reverse stress testing and judgement Challenging models by asking what would make their assumptions fail. 18:30 – Liquidity crisis preparedness Why an untested contingency plan is not a demonstrated capability. 21:23 – The danger of delaying decisions Distinguishing genuine information needs from uncomfortable choices. 23:02 – Behavioural biases in banking How sunk costs, groupthink and authority influence decisions under pressure. 27:25 – How ALCO reporting influences decisions Why presenting the same risk differently can change committee outcomes. 29:22 – Challenging senior stakeholders Building credible challenge through evidence, persistence and documentation. 32:15 – Leadership and women in financial markets Svetlana's reflections on confidence, mentoring and career development. 👤 About Svetlana Kardan Svetlana Kardan is a senior Treasury risk professional, author, educator and creator of Psychology of Treasury . Formerly Group Head of Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book at HSBC , she has over 20 years of experience across Asset and Liability Management (ALM), liquidity and funding risk, foreign exchange, stress testing and Treasury governance. Her work explores how human psychology influences financial risk management, model assumptions and decision-making. Connect with Svetlana: https://www.linkedin.com/in/svetlana-kardan/ 📚 Related Resources Explore more insights on risk management, organisational resilience and decision-making: Building Psychological Safety in RiskManagement: A Practical Guide to the Four Stages Psychological Safety in Risk Leadership: The silent foundation of trust, culture, andchallenge EffectiveStrategies for Managing Risks in AI-Driven Business Decision-Making 🎓 Download Your CPD Certificate Access your certificate through The CPD Group after completing the episode: TBC

October 31, 20264 min

Pivoting in Crisis: NCT's Digital Transformation with Angela McConville

What happens when a crisis threatens not just an organisation's operations, but the very model on which its survival depends? In this RiskMasters — The Download , Angela McConville , former Chief Executive of the National Childbirth Trust (NCT) , reflects on joining the charity just ten weeks before the first COVID-19 lockdown and facing an immediate existential challenge. NCT's operating model depended on bringing expectant parents together through in-person antenatal education. When the pandemic made those gatherings impossible, the disruption affected the charity's income, services and ability to fulfil its purpose. Angela describes how an organisation built around face-to-face facilitation rapidly developed the confidence, skills and infrastructure needed to deliver support digitally. A particularly important part of the discussion concerns how leaders frame change . Rather than presenting digital transformation as an organisational objective, Angela connected the transition directly to NCT's mission of supporting parents at a time when connection and community had become even more important. That sense of purpose helped mobilise a workforce whose capabilities and determination were already present, even if the circumstances in which they needed to operate had fundamentally changed. In this extract: Why the pandemic created an existential challenge for NCT's operating model How resilience became an immediate leadership and organisational survival priority The role of purpose in mobilising people through significant disruption How practitioners developed new capabilities to deliver services digitally Why framing transformation around the organisation's mission can influence its ability to adapt What NCT's experience reveals about leadership, confidence and organisational resilience This extract comes from my CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Angela McConville , When Mission Meets Reality: Resilience and Leadership in a Transforming Charity . 🎧 Listen to the full episode of RiskMasters for the complete conversation on organisational resilience, leadership, transformation and decision-making.

October 24, 20266 min

Navigating Early Signals: A Leader's Perspective with Angela McConville

How do organisations recognise emerging risks when the evidence is still incomplete? In this RiskMasters — The Download , Angela McConville , former Chief Executive of the National Childbirth Trust (NCT) , explores how leaders can identify, interpret and respond to early warning signals before they develop into material strategic issues. Angela explains why organisations need to pay attention to frontline observations, intuition and emerging concerns without allowing those signals to become established assumptions prematurely. An important part of the discussion concerns the ability to distinguish between a signal, a symptom and a strategic issue . This requires curiosity, judgement and a culture where people feel comfortable sharing observations that may not yet be supported by conclusive evidence. Angela illustrates this through NCT's experience of recognising growing concerns about birth trauma . What initially appeared as isolated observations from practitioners working in different communities gradually developed into a broader picture of an issue receiving national attention. The example highlights why connecting signals across an organisation matters. Individually, observations may appear inconclusive, but collectively they can reveal patterns that warrant further investigation and ultimately influence strategic priorities, services and organisational responses. In this extract: Why early warning signals should be explored without becoming premature assumptions How leaders distinguish between signals, symptoms and strategic issues The importance of frontline intelligence and organisational listening How connecting observations across different locations can reveal emerging patterns What NCT's experience with birth trauma illustrates about organisational awareness How emerging risks can influence strategic decisions, services and priorities This extract comes from my CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Angela McConville , When Mission Meets Reality: Resilience and Leadership in a Transforming Charity . 🎧 Listen to the full episode of RiskMasters for the complete conversation on organisational resilience, leadership, transformation and decision-making.

October 17, 20263 min

Learning to Fail Fast: Decision-Making Under Uncertainty with Angela McConville

How can leaders make better decisions when information is incomplete and circumstances keep changing? In this RiskMasters — The Download , Angela McConville , former Chief Executive of the National Childbirth Trust (NCT) , explores why organisational resilience depends on the ability to experiment, learn quickly and adapt without waiting for certainty. Drawing on NCT's experience of transformation, Angela explains how the organisation adopted a test-and-learn approach , using small, low-cost experiments to explore opportunities before committing significant resources. A particularly revealing example concerns an initiative that failed within just 10 to 15 days. Rather than treating the outcome as a setback, the leadership team celebrated what they had learned and moved on. The distinction is important. Learning from failure does not mean accepting uncontrolled risk. It means creating opportunities to test assumptions, contain potential losses and make better-informed decisions. For charities and other organisations operating under financial and operational pressure, this approach offers an alternative to lengthy transformation programmes that may struggle to keep pace with changing circumstances. In this extract: Why leaders must become comfortable making decisions with imperfect information How small experiments can reduce uncertainty before significant resources are committed Why speed of learning can matter more than speed of execution How celebrating contained failures can strengthen organisational culture Why a test-and-learn mindset supports organisational resilience and continuous adaptation This extract comes from my CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Angela McConville , When Mission Meets Reality: Resilience and Leadership in a Transforming Charity . 🎧 Listen to the full episode of RiskMasters for the complete conversation on charity leadership, organisational transformation, decision-making and resilience.

October 10, 2026Episode 942 min

When Mission Meets Reality: Resilience and Leadership in a Transforming Charity with Angela McConville

In this CPD episode of the RiskMasters Podcast , I speak with Angela McConville , formerly Chief Executive of the National Childbirth Trust (NCT) , about leadership, organisational resilience and transformation in one of the UK's largest charities. Angela joined NCT just ten weeks before the Covid-19 pandemic fundamentally disrupted how the organisation supported parents. Overnight, a charity built around bringing expectant parents together in local communities had to rethink how it delivered its services, maintained financial sustainability and continued fulfilling its mission. We also discuss balancing mission with financial sustainability, leading distributed workforces, navigating increasing regulatory expectations and collaborating across organisational boundaries to deliver greater social impact. 🎯 What You Will Learn By listening to this episode, you'll gain practical insights into: Building organisational resilience through leadership rather than crisis response. Challenging assumptions that have become embedded within successful organisations. Using experimentation and rapid learning to improve strategic decision-making. Creating cultures where curiosity is encouraged and learning is celebrated. Recognising emerging risks before they become measurable. Balancing governance, regulation and organisational agility. Empowering distributed teams while maintaining effective oversight. Using collaboration as a strategic capability rather than simply a partnership model. Reinventing an organisation without compromising its purpose. 🕒 Episode Highlights 00:00 – When resilience becomes a leadership challenge Angela reflects on joining NCT just weeks before the Covid-19 pandemic and leading an organisation through immediate disruption. 04:00 – Protecting the mission, not the operating model Why organisations must distinguish between their purpose and the way they currently deliver it. 08:00 – Learning faster than circumstances change How experimentation, rapid learning and celebrating small failures strengthen organisational resilience. 14:00 – Understanding changing customer needs Why successful organisations continually challenge their assumptions about the people they serve. 18:00 – Why leaders should communicate purpose, not simply process Helping people understand why change matters rather than overwhelming them with operational detail. 22:00 – Structured and unstructured listening How organisational awareness develops through formal governance and everyday conversations. 27:00 – Weak signals and emerging strategic risks Recognising patterns before they become measurable issues, illustrated through NCT's experience of identifying birth trauma as an emerging national concern. 34:00 – Enabling rather than controlling Why resilient organisations empower frontline teams rather than centralising decision-making. 39:00 – Collaboration as a resilience capability How working across organisational boundaries can amplify both influence and social impact. 43:00 – Reinvention and the future of leadership Why resilience ultimately depends upon continually rethinking how organisations fulfil their mission. 👤 About Angela McConville Angela McConville was at the time of the interview Chief Executive of the National Childbirth Trust (NCT) , one of the UK's largest parenting charities supporting families through pregnancy, birth and early parenthood. Her leadership spans charity governance, organisational transformation, strategic leadership, operational resilience, service innovation and collaboration , with a strong focus on creating organisations that learn, adapt and continue delivering lasting social impact. 📚 Related Resources When Governance Comes Too Late: A Charity Risk Case Study Governance in Charities and Non-Profit Organisations A Guide to Assessing Risk Maturity for Non-Profit Organisations and Charities 🎓 Download your CPD certificate: https://thecpd.group/p/PSWG4GA

October 3, 20266 min

Resolving Uncertainty in Decision Making

What happens when the assumptions behind an important decision change? In this RiskMasters — The Download , Grant Purdy explores why decision-making is fundamentally about resolving uncertainty and why organisations need to understand the assumptions on which their decisions depend. Drawing on the work he developed with the late Roger Estall, Grant explains how good decisions begin with clarity about organisational purpose, the opportunity being considered and the outcomes being sought. But a particularly important part of the discussion concerns assumptions . Every decision rests on assumptions about the organisation and the world around it. Yet Grant observes that boards and executive teams rarely record those assumptions explicitly. That creates a practical governance problem. If the assumptions behind a decision are not visible, how can leaders recognise when circumstances have changed enough to reconsider it? The objective is not perfect certainty. Grant argues that decision-makers instead need to reach “sufficient certainty” to exercise judgement and act. In this extract: • Why decision-making involves resolving uncertainty • The importance of purpose and desired outcomes • Why every important decision rests on assumptions • What Grant means by “sufficient certainty” • Why boards should make assumptions explicit • How changing assumptions can signal that a decision needs to be revisited This extract comes from my CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Grant Purdy on ISO 31000, risk management, uncertainty and better decision-making. 🎧 Listen to the full episode of RiskMasters for the complete conversation.

September 26, 20265 min

ISO 31000 - The Lost Way of Risk Management

Has risk management lost sight of what it was originally supposed to achieve? In this RiskMasters — The Download extract, Grant Purdy offers a provocative perspective on how the risk management profession has evolved and why he believes it needs to reconnect with decision-making . Grant reflects on the different philosophies that developed around ISO 31000 and COSO ERM . He argues that while ISO 31000 had the potential to move risk management towards decision support, tensions remained between integrating risk thinking into normal management decisions and maintaining separate risk management processes, terminology and frameworks. He also discusses a proposed revision of ISO 31000 around 2015 which, in his account, would have reframed the standard around helping organisations recognise and take account of uncertainty when making decisions. That more fundamental change was ultimately not adopted. The discussion then moves beyond standards to the profession itself. Grant questions whether risk management has become too focused on its own processes, documentation and terminology, including the difficulty practitioners still have in agreeing what the word “risk” actually means. His central argument is clear: risk management should not become an end in itself. Its value should come from helping organisations understand uncertainty and make better decisions. Grant Purdy's perspective on ISO 31000 and COSO ERM Why integrating risk management with decision-making remains difficult The proposed rethink of ISO 31000 around decision support and uncertainty Whether risk management has become too focused on process and documentation Why definitions of risk continue to create difficulties for the profession Why Grant believes risk management should ultimately support better decisions This extract is taken from the full CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Grant Purdy on ISO 31000, risk management, uncertainty and better decision-making . 🎧 Listen to the full conversation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or at aevitium.com .

September 19, 20265 min

ISO 31000: The Evolution of Risk Management

What was ISO 31000 originally designed to achieve, and how did the international risk management standard develop? In this RiskMasters — The Download extract, Grant Purdy , who was directly involved in the development of ISO 31000 , explains the origins of the standard and its relationship with organisational decision-making. Grant traces ISO 31000 back to the Australian and New Zealand standard AS/NZS 4360 , first published in 1995 and subsequently updated in 1999 and 2004. The objective was to bring greater consistency to different approaches to risk assessment and risk treatment while producing information that decision-makers could understand and use. As other countries began adopting AS/NZS 4360, Grant and his colleagues approached the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) about developing an international standard. What followed was a four-year process of discussion and compromise as different countries brought their own perspectives on risk management. Grant explains why the resulting ISO 31000 framework sought to integrate risk management and decision-making , but also why he believes this contributed to a distinction that continues to shape the profession. In his view, different philosophies of risk management have subsequently developed. He characterises the ISO 31000 approach as increasingly focused on decision support, while describing COSO and IRM approaches as placing greater emphasis on risk identification, governance and reporting. That distinction leads to a fundamental question for risk leaders: is risk management primarily a process for identifying and reporting risk, or should its ultimate purpose be to improve organisational decisions? The origins and history of ISO 31000 How ISO 31000 evolved from AS/NZS 4360 The original purpose of risk assessment and risk treatment Why risk information should support organisational decision-making How the international risk management standard was developed The role of compromise in international standards Grant Purdy's perspective on different philosophies of modern risk management This extract is taken from the full CPD-accredited RiskMasters conversation with Grant Purdy exploring ISO 31000, risk management, uncertainty, risk matrices, governance and better decision-making . Listen to the full conversation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or at aevitium.com .

September 12, 2026Episode 845 min

ISO 31000, Risk Management & Better Decision-Making with Grant Purdy

In this episode of RiskMasters , I speak with Grant Purdy about risk management, uncertainty and the relationship between risk and better decision-making. Grant has spent almost five decades working in risk and decision-making. He was a nominated expert involved in the development of ISO 31000 , contributed to ISO Guide 73 and helped shape ISO/IEC 31010 . He is also co-author, with the late Roger Estall, of Deciding , a practical guide designed to help people make better decisions. Our conversation examines how risk management has evolved, why Grant believes parts of the profession have become disconnected from decision-making, and what boards, executives and risk professionals can do differently. “Certainty is a total illusion. It can never be achieved. Sufficient certainty is as good as we can get.” – Grant Purdy 🎯 What You Will Learn Why risk management should ultimately improve decision-making How to make decisions without waiting for impossible certainty Why identifying and monitoring assumptions strengthens governance Where risk matrices and risk appetite can create false confidence How AI can support judgement without replacing accountability 🕒 Episode Highlights 01:23 - What ISO 31000 was originally trying to achieve Grant traces the development of ISO 31000 from AS/NZS 4360 and explains why creating useful information for decision-making was central to the original approach. 06:03 - Where risk management lost its way We discuss the different philosophies that emerged around risk management and why Grant believes the profession needs to reconnect risk with decision support. 10:29 - Uncertainty, assumptions and sufficient certainty Grant explains why decisions require clarity about purpose, opportunity, desired outcomes and the assumptions on which they depend. 16:08 - The danger of seeking certainty Why waiting for complete information can produce analysis paralysis, missed opportunities and delayed action. 21:10 - What risk matrices can and cannot tell us Grant explains why a useful prioritisation tool can become misleading when organisations treat it as a form of quantitative analysis. 24:20 - Governance, regulation and decision-making A provocative discussion about the relationship between standards, regulation and consultancy, and why governance should ultimately be concerned with how decisions are made. 32:49 - Why well-governed organisations still make poor decisions We explore unclear purpose, hidden assumptions, predetermined outcomes, insufficient challenge and weak monitoring. 36:49 - AI and the future of decision support Grant considers how AI can broaden context, challenge bias and surface assumptions, alongside the dangers of allowing technology to substitute for human judgement. 41:01 - The future of the risk profession Why Grant believes risk professionals should broaden their capabilities and become facilitators of better organisational decisions. 44:02 - Better decisions begin with purpose Grant closes with the principle at the heart of his approach to decision-making. 👤 About Grant Purdy Grant Purdy has almost five decades of experience working in risk management and decision-making. He chaired the Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand risk management committee for ten years and was a nominated expert involved in developing ISO 31000. Grant on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/grant-purdy-4ba1925/ Learn more about Deciding : https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/book 📚 Related Resources From Approval to Impact: Repositioning Risk Appetite Strategic Uncertainty Governance Risk Impact Assessment: What Actually Drives Decision Quality When Delay Changes the Decision Itself 🎓 Download your CPD certificate: The CPD Group - Accreditation: #501335