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Oct 2026
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Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information. Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
RenMac breaks down another round of troubling inflation data and why the Fed’s reluctance to hike in October likely cements action in December. The team examines why improving market breadth may be misleading as defensive stocks lead, growing stress in credit markets, and how rising living costs and geopolitical risks could shape the midterms and markets.
Ramp's Ara Kharazian joins RenMac to unpack what actual corporate spending data reveals about the AI boom, including why 1% of companies account for 80% of enterprise AI spending and why rising usage isn't translating into higher spending or broad productivity gains. The team discusses evidence that intensive AI adopters are growing employment rather than replacing workers, how competition between OpenAI and Anthropic is driving prices lower, and what that means for valuations and the massive infrastructure buildout. They also examine the inflationary implications of AI investment, emerging divisions within the semiconductor and software trades, and widening credit spreads beneath an equity market still near its highs. Check out Ara here: https://substack.com/@arakharazianSubscribe to our newsletter: https://go.renmac.com/newsletterRequest a trial of our research (for professional money managers): https://start.renmac.com/trialSign up for our research (for individual investors): https://renmacaccess.com/Get merch at https://renmacmerch.comTimestamps0:00 – Welcome, Disclaimer & Intro1:41 – Meet Ara Kharazian: Ramp AI Index4:40 – Corporate AI Spending & Adoption Trends9:04 – AI Spending: The Top 1% vs. the Median Firm10:34 – AI Adoption Across Industries13:15 – AI’s Impact on Employment & Hiring19:14 – AI Productivity & Return on Investment21:38 – Where Businesses Are Investing in AI24:38 – AI Valuations & Market Expectations25:41 – Cracks in the AI Thesis: Slowing Spending Growth26:46 – OpenAI vs. Anthropic: Competition & Pricing29:50 – AI Stocks, Semiconductors & Software32:16 – AI Data Centers & Washington Policy34:11 – Is AI Spending Inflationary or Deflationary?40:37 – Mailbag: Crypto vs. Equities44:54 – Week Ahead: Washington & Geopolitical Risks46:28 – CPI, PPI & the Fed Outlook49:19 – Ramp AI Index: Token Usage & Spending50:47 – Will AI Become a Commodity?54:54 – Bank Earnings, Credit Spreads & Market Risks56:54 – Treasury Demand & U.S. Fiscal Concerns58:03 – U.S. vs. Europe: Rising Interest Rates59:36 – Closing Remarks
RenMac breaks down a softer payroll report that reins in Fed hike expectations even as inflation remains the bigger hurdle for policymakers. The team discusses why higher real rates are beginning to show up in credit, weakness beneath the equity averages, the shift from TINA to TARA as bonds compete with stocks again, and why stretched bullish sentiment has Jeff growing a little cautious.
RenMac breaks down the breakout in long-end Treasury yields, why tighter monetary policy rather than fiscal concerns may be driving the move, and how higher real rates are beginning to bite. The team also discusses widening CCC spreads and signs of stress at the lowest end of credit, why the Fed’s former doves are turning more hawkish with additional hikes ahead, the growing disconnect between resilient economic data and weakening market internals, and why 39 relative-strength highs versus 350 lows in the Russell 1000 may be signaling what comes next.
RenMac breaks down the Fed’s unanimous rate hike, why Kevin Warsh’s first move suggests the tightening cycle may have further to run, and what increasingly restrictive real rates could mean for markets and the economy. The team discusses a resilient consumer facing mounting pressure from higher food, energy and borrowing costs, the continued unwind in tech and momentum, and why 5% Treasury yields are creating a real alternative to equities. They also explore the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, the politics surrounding AI data centers, emerging-market opportunities, and what rising rates and shifting leadership could signal for the next phase of the market cycle.
RenMac breaks down stubborn inflation and why the Fed may be forced to hike as higher real yields reshape markets beneath the surface. The team discusses weakening momentum and the rotation out of tech, opportunities in TIPS, escalating Middle East energy risks, and why the recent momentum crash may be entering a critical “separation” phase that reveals the market’s next leaders.
Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen rejoins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, why oil prices have remained surprisingly contained, and how the conflict is testing U.S. military capacity and strategic credibility. The team explores the intensifying competition with China over critical minerals, AI and compute, the growing political backlash against hyperscalers and data centers, and what winning the AI race actually means. They also break down the historic unwind in momentum, why elevated inflation and middling growth are flashing a more cautious market-cycle signal, and how resilient credit markets and a still-positive equity trend are keeping the broader bull case intact.
RenMac is joined this week by Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist and co-host of The Market Huddle podcast to discuss why the Fed has run out of room to move before the midterms and what that means for bonds, gold, and the AI trade. The team explores why rising yields are a rational response to global deficits and the largest infrastructure build-out since the 1850s, why the People's Bank of China — not the Treasury — is the real driver of gold, and why the hyperscaler capex boom looks more like an earnings bubble than a price bubble. They also cover Bessent's buyback operations, widening credit spreads, the momentum unwind, tariffs, and Jackson Hole.
RenMac breaks down Treasury's move to double its long-end liquidity support ops to $4 billion, its turn from plumbing to arguing yields don't reflect fundamentals and how bill-funding those buys lands them on the Fed's sheet. The team also discusses why a 53-year high in capex intentions is credit-financed capacity that looks like growth until the cost of capital reprices, Oracle and Nvidia CDS at new highs, PMIs as a bad indicator for asset allocation and why P/Es are siren songs in the context of shooting failed momentum in the back.
RenMac breaks down a July inflation picture that isn't cooperating (softer CPI, firmer PPI, and core PCE annualizing near 2.5%), and why the bond market is under-pricing the risk of a September hike. The team also discusses slowing consumer spending after a weak retail sales print, a tape where the trend holds in the face of the momentum unwind and the Leopold rebound, the Credit Card Competition Act's path onto the Clarity Act, AOC's rise in the betting markets, and the week ahead in Fed minutes.
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