Episodes
298
Latest episode
Jun 2026
Language
EN
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information. Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.
RenMac breaks down the SpaceX IPO frenzy, why history suggests caution around the most anticipated market debuts, and how stronger inflation and labor data are shifting the Fed conversation toward a more hawkish stance. The team also discusses private credit liquidity concerns, rising real rates, the Iran outlook, and whether market leadership is finally broadening beyond a handful of crowded trades
RenMac small cap strategist Kevin Dempter joins Off-Script to discuss what's driving small cap outperformance since Liberation Day and whether the run has room to go. The team digs into the technical setup in regionals and biotech as potential breakout catalysts, the SpaceX IPO mechanics and where retail may get trapped, and how to distinguish a durable market super cycle from a dangerous earnings bubble given historically narrow leadership. They also tackle a stronger-than-expected payrolls print that reshuffled the Fed outlook, Neil Dutta's skepticism on AI-driven productivity gains, the FHFA/DNI reshuffle and what it means for Fannie and Freddie, and whether the Trump-China relationship has turned a corner on trade and Iran.
RenMac discusses the equity markets at all-time highs as signs of late-cycle stress accumulate beneath the surface and capital chases the parabola in tech. The team breaks down the historic tech-vs-healthcare disparity in their SERM excess-return model, the tops forming in payments, financials, and crypto, and the Bermuda Triangle of private credit, life insurance, and reinsurance that could become the next pressure point. They also explore Iran's fragile 60-day ceasefire, a global rate-hike cycle that may be doing the Fed's work and the wealth-effect grip on consumer spending.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset manager Grayscale Investments, joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the Clarity Act's path through Congress and how stablecoins are challenging banks' monopoly on digital payments. The team also digs into the AI boom's underappreciated reach across the U.S. economy, the breakout in real yields, narrowing market breadth, the Fed's increasingly narrow policy path, and geopolitical pressure points from the Strait of Hormuz to Cuba.
RenMac welcomes Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Global Macro Ozan Tarman for a deep dive on rising yields, “warflation,” and whether the bond vigilantes are back. The team debates whether the move above 4.50% in the 10-year marks a regime shift, why AI is still carrying equities despite mounting macro stress, and how Iran, Taiwan, and Trump’s China trip are reshaping global markets. They also unpack Kevin Warsh’s difficult Fed setup, crowded positioning across rates and FX, private credit risks, and why housing and consumer may be flashing warning signs beneath the surface.We also welcome you to download our report: RenMac BDC Primer
RenMac breaks down a labor market that remains stable but uneven, with AI and data center investment continuing to drive hiring, manufacturing, and market leadership while housing, services, and consumer-sensitive sectors soften beneath the surface. The team discusses why slowing wage growth and rising gasoline prices leave the Fed stuck on hold, how semis and tech are entering historic “bubble” territory, and why private credit stress, Iran tensions, and China negotiations could become the next catalysts for volatility.
RenMac breaks down a powerful market rally masking weak breadth and narrow leadership concentrated in AI, semis, and energy. The team explores a soft underlying growth backdrop, slowing wage gains alongside rising prices, and why the Fed remains on hold despite mounting tension within the committee. They also discuss higher oil expectations, pressure on consumers, risks from concentrated momentum and “bubble” conditions in tech, and how markets are navigating a disconnect between strong earnings and fragile macro fundamentals.
RenMac unpacks rising risks in the $2.1T private credit market, where opacity, refinancing pressure, and potential redemption “gates” could tighten financial conditions beneath the surface. The team discusses a speculative turn in equities driven by high beta and momentum, a Fed on hold despite slowing wage growth, and a labor market that remains stable but fragile. They also explore why inflation still matters more than growth for markets, how fiscal support may fade into a headwind, and what credit stress, positioning, and geopolitics signal for a late-cycle environment.
RenMac unpacks a market at new highs despite slowing growth, softening real consumption, and rising real rates acting as a drag beneath the surface. The team debates AI-driven speculative behavior, a fragile consumer distorted by nominal spending and gas prices, housing that likely needs job losses to reset, and why markets are dismissing oil, policy, and Fed risks that haven’t hit earnings yet.We also welcome you to access “deGraaf: Fading the Fads” report: https://start.renmac.com/4-17-2026-fading-the-fads
Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the evolving Fed reaction function amid a potential transition to a Warsh-led regime and why markets are struggling to price policy. The team breaks down how Middle East developments and energy prices complicate rate cuts, why underlying inflation may be softer than headline data suggests, and how AI-driven productivity could create conflicting pressures on growth, inflation, and rates. They also explore rising fragility in equities, the role of real rates as the key market driver, and why the current rally lacks the breadth and conviction needed for a durable move higher.Here is the link to Richard Clarida's Spotify : https://open.spotify.com/album/51lgCHoPn3Os1PiCirwidr
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