Outerblue

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141

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Jun 2026

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About the show

Welcome to Outerblue, a podcast channel to guide professional investors on their financial journey Four series are available: Outerblue Convictions: Our monthly market analysis and investment convictions This series presents our latest analysis of the markets, asset allocation trends and our investment convictions. Each month, listen to Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, discuss Amundi’s views with Swaha Pattanaik, your host on this podcast. Outerblue Conversations: Latest insights and discussion on a variety of investment topics This series discusses topical developments in the world of investment. Listen to expert views on the economic and geopolitical landscape, discover the insights, implications, and analysis as well as market views and asset allocation recommendations. Outerblue Responsible investment: Responsible investing themes shaping the investment landscape This podcast explores and explains the latest responsible investment themes. Listen to experts from Amundi’s responsible investment teams share their insights on the latest environmental trends investors should be watching Outerblue Talks Research: knowledge sharing on financial research This podcast takes a closer look at current financial research topics and themes. Join Swaha Pattanaik, Head of publishing and digital strategy, to learn more about the latest research, the findings and implications from Amundi’s research experts. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

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June 2, 202615 min

Outerblue Convictions - Bond Market Volatility, Yield Curves, and Equity Resilience

Global markets are being shaped by a fast-moving geopolitical backdrop, with rising tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz adding to volatility across rates, credit and equities. In this episode of Outerblue Convictions, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, about how the team is interpreting the latest moves in macro and bond market volatility, and what this means for portfolio allocation.They discuss why bond yields have risen so sharply, how uncertainty around energy supply and inflation is feeding through to central bank expectations, and why the shape of the yield curve matters as much as the level of rates. Monica explains that steepening, meaning a wider gap between short- and long-dated maturities, has become a key signal as bond markets reassess policy, growth and fiscal risks. The conversation also covers the latest views on the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, and why the medium-term case for yield curve steepening remains intact even if the tactical picture is less clear.The discussion then turns to equities, where resilience has held up surprisingly well but may face pressure from higher rates, valuation sensitivity and rising debt-service costs. Monica also assesses the UK market through the lens of credibility, fiscal discipline and term premium, drawing comparisons with Italy’s past experience in bond markets. Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers practical insight for investors navigating a more volatile and differentiated environment.Topics covered: geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, bond yields, yield curve steepening, short maturities, long maturities, central bank policy, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, inflation, energy prices, sovereign bonds, bond market volatility, equities, valuations, debt service costs, fiscal credibility, term premium, United Kingdom, ItalyHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

May 20, 202627 min

Outerblue Talks Research - Adapting to Ruptures - Diversification is the Key to this New Era

Long-term investing looks very different in a world defined by ruptures, from geopolitical fragmentation and strategic competition to artificial intelligence, demographic change and shifting currency dynamics. In this episode of Outerblue Talks Research, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, and John O’Toole, Global Head and CIO of Solutions, about Amundi’s latest Capital Markets Assumptions (CMA) report and what it means for investors over the years ahead.They explore why the current environment is no longer just a series of temporary shocks, but a deeper structural change in the investment landscape. Monica explains how persistent inflation, strategic autonomy, energy security and industrial policy are reshaping the macro backdrop, while John highlights the growing importance of currencies, fiscal conditions and a more selective approach to portfolio construction.The discussion continues with a closer look at how ruptures will impact expected returns across fixed income, equities, credit, gold and private assets. Bonds are regaining their role as a source of income and diversification, while equities still offer attractive long-term potential, albeit with more dispersion across regions. The conversation also examines why artificial intelligence is both a growth opportunity and a source of higher concentration risk, and why gold and private markets are becoming more strategic in long-term portfolios.Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers valuable insight for investors and asset allocators seeking to navigate a new market environment defined by structural ruptures. Tune in for expert perspectives on resilience, diversification, selectivity and the themes likely to shape returns in the decade ahead.Thank you for listening to the latest Outerblue Talks Research, read the full Capital Market Assumptions paper on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/capital-market-assumptions-2026Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

April 28, 202616 min

Geopolitical friction and the new market reality - Market Analysis and Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Market Analysis and Investment Views by Outerblue ConvictionsMarkets have remained surprisingly resilient despite a fast-moving news cycle, rising geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty around the outlook for growth and inflation. In this episode of Outerblue Convictions, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, following the IMF spring meetings in Washington to discuss the structural shifts now shaping markets and what they mean for investors.They examine the implications of a more fragile global backdrop, including the impact of geopolitical risk on oil prices, inflation persistence and central bank policy. Monica shares why the ECB and the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer, while the Bank of Japan remains an exception. They also explore what markets may be underestimating, from the risk of a new geopolitical regime, to the potential for a disorderly repricing of US assets.The discussion continues with a look at fixed income, equities, gold and the US dollar, as well as the importance of selectivity, quality and diversification in portfolios. With markets still pricing in optimism despite stretched valuations and persistent uncertainty, Monica explains why investment views may need to extend beyond traditional assumptions and prepare for a more demanding investment environment.Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers valuable insight for investors and asset allocators looking to understand the key macroeconomic, geopolitical and market themes shaping the second half of the year. Tune in for expert perspectives on asset allocation, central bank policy and the role of diversification in a changing world.Thank you for listening to the latest Market Analysis and Investment Views, read our latest articles on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/ Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

March 24, 202614 min

Iran conflict: A temporary shock or a more persistent shift? Global Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy. As energy prices surge and the news flow comes thick and fast, this month’s host, Silvia Di Silvio, speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to hear her thinking on the crisis and how it is changing Amundi's investment views. They take a closer look at what the war means for inflation, both in the near and longer-term, and when a temporary supply shock might turn into a more permanent change to the economic regime. They also consider the potential reactions from central banks as policymakers try to manage this complex environment of higher inflation, due to energy prices, combined with weaker growth. The edition continues with a focus on the US dollar, which has been faring relatively well in the current crisis. Do we expect this to be the end of the USD downward trajectory? Finally, we wrap up with a review of how these developments are impacting our asset allocation and portfolio construction views and the importance of smarter, multi-layered diversification in building resilient portfolios.Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the short and medium-term. To learn more, read our latest articles on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/ Topics covered: Energy crisis, conflict, Iran, inflation, monetary policy, investment views, asset allocation, risk, economy, geopolitics, central banks, Federal Reserve, markets, investors, interest rates, equities, United States, USD, diversification, gold, hedging,Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

March 2, 202616 min

Fragmented forces shaping the markets - Global Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

As tariffs figures once again hit the headlines, our new episode of Outerblue Convictions measures the feeling in the markets and looks at some of the main drivers over the past few weeks. Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to gauge her reaction to the latest round of tariffs, and whether these impact our investment views.This month's episode looks at the switch we've seen in global markets in this new era of controlled disorder, analyses some of the disruptions from AI that are already starting to play out, and explores some of the diversification opportunities that can be found in this fragmented environment. We also discuss whether we can expect the gold rally to continue, why India remains a key investment theme, and we finish by looking forward to the upcoming EU summit and why it might be relevant for markets.Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the short and medium-term. Topics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, central banks, gold, markets, investors, equities, bonds, fixed income, Europe, India, emerging markets, AI, diversification, tariffs,Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

February 3, 202610 min

Tracking the trends in a time of rupture - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

After a flurry of headlines and announcements from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos in January, one key message is likely to survive after most of the speeches have been long-forgotten; The world is facing a rupture in the international order. Catching-up last week on her return from the meetings, Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sat down with our host, Swaha Pattanaik, to share her observations from the ground and on how this rupture is likely to impact our economic research and investment views.As policy, geopolitics and volatility drive the market cycle, we look at what this means for the monetary policy outlook in the US and the key data driving forecasts. We consider some of the short and medium-term trends we're seeing in the markets, particularly gold and the forces driving the record highs, what's been impacting the US dollar, and examine what has been happening in the Japanese market, both for foreign exchange and government bonds.Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the short and medium-term. To learn more, read the article on the same topic: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/diversification-response-ruptureTopics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, Davos, geopolitics, central bank, Federal Reserve, Japan, Gold, markets, investors, interest rates, bonds, fixed income, FX, foreign exchange, United States, diversification Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

December 19, 202513 min

Monetary policy resolutions for a new year - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

It's the time of year to look ahead, reflect back on what has happened, and make resolutions for the coming year. After explaining our market forecasts and investment views for 2026 in last month's podcast, in this episode we're focusing more closely on a key factor that drives market movements, monetary policy. Sitting down with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, for the last time this year, our host, Swaha Pattanaik, asks all the essential questions to help investors understand the different expectations for monetary policy decisions in the months to come and which resolutions are realistic. Starting with the largest, the Federal Reserve, we explore the baseline scenario, we analyse the competing pressures and how the Fed is responding. We then compare this to the outlook in the Eurozone and our expectations for the ECB in 2026 in terms of interest rate movements. Finally, we compare these potential developments to our portfolio positioning in fixed income and equities and discuss some of the fragilities investors need to keep in mind.Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the year ahead.Topics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, central bank, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, growth, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, bonds, fixed income, equities, United States, Europe, emerging markets, diversificationHosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

November 24, 202513 min

2026 Investment Outlook - Keep it turning - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

In this month's podcast, we take a longer view than usual, as we look at our market convictions and investment views for the next 12 months. Join our host, Swaha Pattanaik, for her regular catch up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, for a whistle-stop tour around the world and across asset classes to discover the key talking points from Amundi's 2026 Investment Outlook. After a year of dramatic market moves, geopolitical events and economic developments, what should investors expect for 2026? We look at the central questions that are shaping our investment views and decision making. In particular, how much impact will AI have on market growth next year and what companies and sectors will be the likely winners? What's the growth and monetary policy outlook for the major global economies? How will threats to central bank independence play out in the markets and will investors continue to diversify away from US assets? We explore the diversification theme and some of the interesting stories for investors to follow in emerging and private markets and the energy transition, among others. Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on cross‑market signals. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the year ahead.Topics covered: Investment outlook, market forecasts, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, growth, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, equities, gold, United States, Europe, Japan, central bank, AI, diversification, Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

November 7, 202512 min

Deciphering conflicting signals - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

Returning from trips to major summits in Washington and Shanghai, Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sits down with our host, Swaha Pattanaik, to discuss the tone on the ground and how this compares to what we're seeing in the markets and our own economic forecasts for the months to come. These international gatherings are a prime opportunity to hear, first-hand, the thinking of financial officials, policymakers and investors. This month's edition shares the key takeaways and our investment views in light of these observations.They take a closer look at the risks to watch and the drivers behind the curious coexistence of record equity and gold rallies. They revisit the Europe transformation story that has been emerging, and assess whether it's still attracting interest from investors as a diversifier. They also take a tour to China and Japan and examine what the latest economic and political developments mean for their respective growth and monetary policies. Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on cross‑market signals ahead of Amundi’s 2026 outlook. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the months ahead.Topics covered: IMF, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, growth, outlook, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, forecasts, equities, gold, United States, Europe, China, Japan, central bank, tech rally, diversification, strategic autonomy, Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

September 10, 202513 min

Calm waves mask shifting undercurrents - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

While Europe headed to the beach, journalists were kept busy with the newsflow out of the US this summer, as central bank independence, new tariff announcements and foreign affairs negotiations continued to make headlines.Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, return to their desks to catch-up you up on what all the developments mean for market outlook and how our investment views are evolving to keep pace. This episode takes a closer look at the shifting undercurrents in the US market: tariffs, labour figures, policy and inflation uncertainty. We dig deeper into how the current political pressures are effecting markets, in particular the current challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence and the moves on the US Treasuries yield curve. We also take a closer look at valuations in the US equities markets and see how the Indian and Chinese economies have been holding up against the new tariff announcements.Topics covered: Investment views, markets, forecasts, US economy, US dollar, central banks, Federal reserve, interest rates, monetary policy, tariffs, yields, equities, fixed income, treasuries, GDP, India, China,Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.