Notayesmanspodcasts

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Aug 2026

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This is my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch era.

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15 recent

August 28, 202610 min

Notayesmanspodcast393

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Question for Friday: How seriously do you take China’s de-dollarisation efforts? (China is methodically lowering friction for converting trade-related RMB into a hard asset via Hong Kong-linked and planned global gold infrastructure. This supports de-dollarisation efforts by making the RMB more practical and credible for settlement without requiring a full gold standard or open capital account.) As the markets are now pushing back a potential interest rate by the BoE to early 27, yet other central banks are making moves now, do you think there are actually any circumstances where Bailey thinks a rate rise is necessary. It increasingly feels as if rate rises are his kryptonite (and his supporters on the MPC)

August 21, 202613 min

Notayesmanspodcast392

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I guess Shaun you'll get any number of questions about what the US is up to, but if not how about something like this: what is Bessent trying to achieve, could it work, who benefits, who loses out. With the general rise in bond markets worldwide, will the ECB continue to ignore Le Spread (+86bps) or will there be a point in time where they will have to intervene? Should I be worried about UK national debt, or will the debt of countries like France, Japan or the USA keep markets occupied. The UK is alone in being the only major currency still pursuing aggressive "Qualitative Tightening" (QT), pushing Government debt out to the gilt markets instead of buying it itself (QE, Qualitative Easing). Others (US, Japan) are swapping gilts to balance interest (QE-lite). Maybe Burnham will too?

August 14, 202614 min

Notayesmanspodcast391

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Might be a stupid question, but how does one navigate this to protect capital? Are the recent growth figures for the UK economy as a result of the recent World Cup and people spending more? Or is there a reason to be optimistic? I may be too late Shaun but if not I'd love it if you'd talk about the Fed's attempts to shore up the Yen. For example, what's in it for the US, will it work, and what if it fails?

August 7, 202612 min

Notayesmanspodcast390

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I’ve seen a couple of commentators talking about ‘zombie companies’ in Japan, which will fold if interest rates rise. It’d be interesting to explore this, and whether it will affect the USA, Europe and the UK — all of which have already seen bankruptcies rising, ahead of Japan’s own reckoning. Secondly, it looks like the USA is worried enough to help support the yen. What do you think? With the Lloyds house price monitor this morning showing 0.1% YoY and 0.0% MoM increases, does this not prove even more problematic for Labours 1.5 million new homes target, as cost of construction costs increase, not just with inflation but increasing regulations around Net Zero etc? "What is the potential impact of US market interventions to 1) keep the oil price below $90 2) bolster the yen?"

July 31, 202611 min

Notayesmanspodcast389

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- You emphasise bond rates when the go above 5%. I take that this is important. But when will the crisis come to fruition? Is it predictable? And will other countries' rates also rising have any effect on the severity of the crisis if/when it comes? The statements from members of the Bank of England MPC all appeared unfazed by broad money. Are they correct? Why are they complacent with 3.2% inflation in 2027 (at least the six voting in favour of a hold on base rates)?

July 24, 202612 min

Notayesmanspodcast388

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What's your view of the dilemma of adherence to the self-imposed fiscal rules against the need to fund defence/infrastructure commitments. Shaun, I'd be interested in your view of the 10-year gilt yield, nudging 5.1%. How much of this rise is down to the Middle East situation and oil price, and how much of it to Spendy Andy? I guessed 5% was when it starts to break so we shouldn’t have to wait long. I wonder if we’ll have to have an emergency budget? The lack of volatility and tight ranges, could be a "hint" that the BOJ has finally realised that their interventions so far have only donated money to a few players - and now they could be on the offer - ready to destroy USDJPY when others start the move down - first time clever intervention ?

July 17, 20269 min

Notayesmanspodcast387

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I see the heat and war in Ukraine is pushing up agricultural commodity prices like wheat. How long is the pass through time from commodity price rises to shop price increases? Also some questions around the latest Bank of England QE and QT plans. ‘dreadful error’ - so you’d have not done QE at all? Counter-factual of the Gilt market totally seizing up is infinitely worse than where we are now Ive never got why Reeves was never challenged about this in Treasury questions And why they issued so many index linked bonds when inflation was zero!

July 10, 202611 min

Notayesmnaspodcast386

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What’s the chances of the UK running into Argentina/Turkey levels of inflation and interest rates? How genuine do you believe the economic data coming out of China to be? 1) Do you agree with me that a good move by Burnham would be to go back in history books and recreate a new Manchester Stock Exchange to boost local / Northern investments & start-ups and replicate this in the Midlands Both would be under FCA. Is the only solution in the short term to put everyone on an agile price tracker to enforce demand reduction at low supply times!?

July 3, 202612 min

Notayesmanspodcast385

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Is £65 per MWh high or low? Is there any economic benefit from having a number 10 in the north? 5 year Gilt is 4.33% and today a 2031 linker was 0.933%. Does that suggest bond markets are calculating RPI will run at 3.4% average over the next 5 years? I am concerned about the possibility of FTSE 100 companies such as HSBC seeking a listing away from the FTSE. How might the composition of the FTSE change in terms of industry segment weighting change, if the rumours in the financial press are true? How might this affect the pricing of the FTSE and performance of funds that track FTSE ?

June 26, 202612 min

Notayesmanspodcast384

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- This chart seems to be at odds with everything else I see and hear atm. Can you explain the growth in UK bank lending? Question for today. Do you think the pound becomes a better indicator of fiscal stress if it hits the big 1.30 $/£? On your power system piece, building an new electricity generation, distribution and backup system was always going to be more expensive than using the one we already had, why did Gov not say that from the start?