Notayesmanspodcasts

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Jun 2026

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This is my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch era.

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15 recent

June 12, 20269 min

Notayesmanspodcast382

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Question for today. Is it possible that the bond markets have priced Burnham being PM in already? No movement after the defence resignations which make Starmer's tenure more likely to end (probably have to wait until next Friday to know for sure) We should be at the height of the UK/ European gas storage filling season but that's not happening. Is that because markets expect prices to have fallen by winter making filling now a loss.

June 5, 202614 min

Notayesmanspodcast381

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . BESSENT: INFLATION IS GOING TO BE A SHORT TERM BLIP Question: How high do you think the Bank of England will allow inflation go before the raise bank rate? Considering many punters are already suggesting inflation will hit 4 or 5 soon. Q: will the SpaceX IPO see profits taken in AI stocks & see USD rise and Bond yields rise as the mega IPO sees rotation and international players look to grab a slice of the $75 billion shares on offer. Q: does the IPO show market is at a top Is the world set up for an economic crash correction this year with inflation, unemployment, AI overpricing and government debt? What probability would you put on it? Question for Friday. How good a measure is the US Fed M2 (broad money) at indicating inflation down the line? 4.6% Vs UK M4 at 4.5%

May 29, 202612 min

Notayesmanspodcast380

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Morris May With broad money growing again in the EU, (+0.2%) and expected ECN rate rise this month, what growth in April's/ annual M4 figure next week will prompt the BoE MPC to react in a similar manner? Morris May With the £ weakening by over 1% v $ in May (particularly for effect on cost of fossil fuel imports) how much upwards pressure does this exert on UK inflation. Keith Cowan What economic interventions would you make to address the youth unemployment crisis in the UK. Truffle Hunter With brent dropping back to $90 this morning how does this drift lower start to impact inflation? Don't panic jonesy Wholesale elec price is still dropping dramatically. When do we get to see this reflected in our bills?

May 22, 20267 min

Notayesmanspodcast379

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Martin Whitely Whats your view of whether tax increases are actually pulling in the revenue expected? Also on debt interest costs? Morris May Does the OBR exist to make other economists look good? hes not the messiah what solace are bond PMs seeing above that 😱 borrowing figure? Global trends? Or are they buying the Operation Save Keir spin?

May 15, 202610 min

Notayesmanspodcast378

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Richard st ruth Q:😃 what do you think the Bond vigilantes are thinking about our Gilts movement over the next couple of years? Morris May To what extent do gilts sell offs relate to the £ exchange rate? We saw it to the extreme last under Truss. When does it become a problem? Alastair Smith From a quick search I couldn't find any comments from you on Modern Monetary Theory. It's been brought back into the Scottish independence debate following the recent election. In light of that, and increasing interest rates in Japan & elsewhere, wondered what you think of MMT? Lairy Sanders It looks like CDS moving too for gilts?

May 8, 202613 min

Notayesmanspodcast377

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Harrison Hi Shaun - sorry if I’ve missed the cutoff for questions already, - but what is QT please? Why would anyone do it given the losses being imposed on the public purse? Why is BoE so eager to push ahead with it? Morris May there is a fair amount of truth in this summary. So an early question for tomorrow's pod...is it possible we might see a bond strike? Dr Twatter reason for lower yields? Matt Brookes One for the podcast - will we be getting an energy/ inflationary spike as the effects of Iran filter through?

April 30, 202612 min

Notayesmanspodcast376

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . GB Investor and Politics Shaun, i ask you this a lot, do you think inflation in the UK is because there is too much demand? Morris May With the 5 yr at 4.62, 2yr at 4.57 and 52wk 4.48, which bond yield gives a better indication as to mortgage rates rises along with BoE rate rises, with markets now pricing in 3 x 25bps hikes this year. Richard St Ruth I am a bit worried about Britain’s economy over the next few years. I remember back in 1976, when Britain went to the IMF, gilt rates were very high. Five-year gilts were about 12% to 14%, while 10-year gilts were fractionally higher at 13% to 16%. If our economy goes pear-shaped, heaven forbid, we could go to 8% or more. Have you given any thought to gilts going higher? Julia Macfarlane Why are people not talking about this other than on twitter? I don’t fully understand how bonds work as I am economically dyslexic 😵‍💫 yet even I can tell something disastrous is unfolding. What’s going on!

April 24, 202611 min

Notayesmanspodcast375

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on please talk about the plan for U K banks to buy £150 billion of UK government bonds. It's paywalled and I can't find a way round it, and even if I could, I don't know if I'd understand it. So. my Q: what's the idea, would it work, who'd benefit, who'd lose out? Alastair Smith Hi Shaun. Any thoughts on Sarah Breedon's comments which are reported by the BBC today with the headline "Stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy" ? Morris May As the yield spread between the US and UK hits 67bps, at what point do either Bailey or RR take responsibility or will they continue to ignore the elephant in the room

April 17, 202611 min

Notayesmanspodcast374

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on According to ChatGPT the refinancing mortgage wave in the next 2 years could involve roughly: • 3½ – 4 million owner-occupier households • several hundred thousand landlord mortgages Maybe £200-£300 per month. Question for Friday: How will this effect the UK economy in the next couple of years? Morris May Just how precarious is the UK Gilts market after the spike yesterday when the guardian story broke? Mr B What was interesting Shaun, that Bessent said in an interview at the INF meeting that he believes the @bankofengland is making profits on gilt trading and intervenes when required to control negative market moves ? Do you believe he knows something we do not see ? dAVIDTHECHEF The BoE aren't that clever and proactive surely? D-COO Bluesky Podcast Question: yesterday, Fortune mag stated that "The premium U.S. Treasuries once commanded over other advanced-economy debt is narrowing." How might the UK position itself to catch an outflow from t-bonds?

April 10, 202610 min

Notayesmanspodcast373

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the UK government bond market and the factors I believe mean that we are in a crisis that will not be easy to escape.