Moody's Talks - Muniland

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Dec 2024

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Hosted by Nick Samuels of the US Public Finance team, Muniland delves into the latest developments impacting the credit environment for states, local governments, healthcare, higher education and more. In each episode, Moody’s analysts join Nick in exploring the ramifications of the pandemic, climate change, cyber risk, federal policy, pension burdens and other deep-seated challenges.

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December 12, 202415 min

Outlooks stable for healthcare and mass transit sectors in 2025

Robust revenue gains and easing expense growth will buoy not-for-profit hospitals over the next 12 months, while state and local taxes will play a growing role in funding many of the nation’s transit systems. Guests: Nansis Hayek, Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Rita Strauss, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Matt Butler, Vice President - Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President - Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Not-for-Profit and Public Healthcare – US: 2025 Outlook - Stable as profitability rises modestly on revenue growth, cost controlsMass Transit – US: 2025 Outlook - Stable as taxes and state funding continue to support operations

October 10, 202417 min

Rising insurance costs indicate growing climate risk for state and local governments

The availability and affordability of home insurance is declining as damage from hurricanes and wildfires becomes more frequent. That could have negative implications for property values and tax revenues, particularly in the most disaster-prone states. Guests: Michael Wertz, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Denise Rappmund, VP - Senior Analyst, Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):State and Local Governments – US: Rising insurance costs indicate growing climate risk to state and local governments

September 12, 202414 min

US public schools grapple with depleted federal aid, rising salaries and falling enrollment

The operating environment for K-12 districts is getting tighter as $190 billion in pandemic support ends, employee costs climb, and declining birthrates reduce the school-age population. Guest: David Levett, VP-Sr. Analyst - Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Public K-12 School Districts – US: Tightening operating environment will challenge a growing minority of districts

August 8, 202412 min

Ballooning stadium subsidies amplify risk for US states and local governments

Stadium projects are often less financially beneficial than projected for the governments subsidizing them, though a shift toward multipurpose facilities brings the potential for enhanced returns. Guest: Greg Sobel, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):States and Local Governments – US: Ballooning stadium subsidies amplify risk amid potential economic development

July 11, 202412 min

NCAA settlement and declining enrollment shift the higher education landscape

Higher expenses after a $2.78 billion agreement on student athlete payments pose a credit risk for smaller colleges, which already face rising competition from larger, cheaper institutions.Guests: Patrick Ronk, AVP-Analyst - Moody’s Ratings; Nicole Serrano, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Higher Education – US: Settlement in NCAA antitrust cases leads to colleges paying athletes, a credit negativePrivate Colleges and Universities – US: Small institutions in Northeast and Midwest face credit stress as enrollment declines

June 13, 202415 min

Revenue shortfall leaves California facing a budget squeeze

Spending cuts of $25 billion will ease the deficit, though out-migration of high earners remains a drag on revenue. K-12 education will avoid significant cuts, but is vulnerable if the economy slows.Guests: Matt Butler, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s Ratings; Helen Cregger, VP-Sr Credit Officer - Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):California’s deficit grows, increasing importance of strong budget solutionsCalifornia school districts are prepared for state budget cuts due to liquidity and strong reserves

May 9, 202415 min

Insurance crisis poses credit risks for hurricane-prone Florida and Louisiana

As climate issues mount, residents face escalating property insurance costs and, in some cases, difficulty obtaining coverage at all, which threatens to hurt the economy and curtail tax collections.Guests: Bola Kushimo, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings and Denise Rappmund, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):State and Local Government - Louisiana: Climate risks and insurance costs pose challenges for state and local governmentsFlorida (State of): Florida insurance exposure reaches peak of 1% of GDP as state increasingly supports sectorProperty & Casualty Insurance – US: Homeowners insurers aim to boost profits as weather-related losses, inflation take tollFor more, listen to our Focus on Finance episode: US homeowners insurers raise prices as inflation and weather-related losses take a toll

April 11, 202411 min

Graying of America poses financial risks for many local governments

Local governments face a loss of economic vitality and tax revenue as the working-age population declines. Meanwhile, a tighter labor supply remains a chronic issue for the hospital sector.Guests: Frank Mamo, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody’s Ratings and Dan Steingart, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Cities and Counties – US: Declining working-age population will constrain revenue and test adaptability

March 14, 202411 min

Intensifying droughts turn up the heat on US state and local governments

As water shortages threaten to curb economic growth, governments in many parts of the country are stepping up investment in water management and conservation.Guests: Sunny Zhu, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Ratings; Maddie Atkins, Analyst - Moody’s RatingsHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s RatingsRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):States – US: Effective management will be crucial in lessening credit risks from water stress

February 8, 202412 min

Red Sea disruptions reshape cargo dynamics on America's East and Gulf Coasts

Suspension of commercial shipping in the Suez Canal and reduced activity in the drought-afflicted Panama Canal have the potential to reduce revenue at key US ports.Guest: Moses Kopmar, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Nick Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users and subscribers):Ports – US: Red Sea shipping disruptions have potential to reduce East Coast cargo volumePorts – US: 2024 Outlook - Stable as cargo volume grows slowly in difficult macro environment