Market Trends with Tracy

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Jun 2026

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In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies. We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries about the show, email sfssocialmedia@savalfoods.com Follow us on Instagram @savalfoods or on TikTok @savalfoodservice

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June 12, 20263 min

The Need for Beef

BEEF We’ll start again with the New World screwworm. We now have 6 confirmed cases in Texas and 1 in New Mexico. Affected animals are a dog, a goat and 5 cattle. While our border with Mexico has been closed for months now to live animals, Texas cattle is now barred from export to Canada and I’d expect that list to continue to grow. This is a growing issue that will affect our beef industry for the foreseeable future. Beef production was 533K head last week, up from the holiday shortened prior week of 448K. This keeps inventories tight and product prices pushing higher. Middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins, and strips are finding support to continue moving higher. Chucks and rounds are holding steady for now though they are not big demand items in the summer. Ground beef is the big demand item and it's moving higher every day. Briskets and sirloin flap are moving lower, but I don’t think we’ll see this for long. It’s a market where I’d make sure I stay ahead of my needs and keep inventory on hand. This market is moving higher. POULTRY The declining chicken market is done. Pricing will be moving higher next week on boneless skinless random breasts, tenders and party wings. Compared to other proteins, still a great value but the declines of the last month are done. Chicken production continues strong up about 2% over last year. There is plenty of chicken in production. On the avian flu report, only three new cases affecting 20K birds. The summer is looking good for avian flu. GRAINS Corn continues to be a great value closing at $4.25/bushel today, that’s down from $4.39 last week. Soy has pulled back a bit from the highs we saw last week, but I would not be surprised if they go on another run. High fuel prices put soy in play with biofuels, that is not over. Wheat is moving lower; I do think we’ll see lower flour costs soon. PORK Pork bellies holding steady for the week, closing today at $120, about the same as last week. This will be moving higher soon, but it is a great price right now. Butts were on a tear higher, but they seem to have leveled off, we may see some better pricing shortly. Ribs are about as high as expected to see them this year. Loins continue to be the value in pork. DAIRY CME Limited moves on the CME this week, thru Thursday’s close, butter is down 2, block is up 1, and barrel is up 2. Let's look for a quiet market at least the next couple weeks. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

June 5, 20263 min

Pressure on the Herd

BEEF Let's start with the bad news. We’ve been expecting this to happen for several months, yesterday the USDA announced the discovery of the New World Screw Worm infecting a calf in La Pryor, Texas, about 50 miles north of the border. This will keep the border closed to live animals for the foreseeable future, keeping pressure on the already small domestic beef herd. The New World Screw worm is a flesh-eating parasite that has been eradicated from the US since the 1970s, but it's back! Control measures include releasing sterile male flies to reduce population growth. This is certainly worth keeping informed about. Now, with that bit of cheery news, let's look at current beef markets. Last week was a holiday week so harvest was only 448K head. Demand remains good, not great. I’m expecting to see market moves higher as we head to Independence Day. Grinds continue to increase every day. Middle meats were struggling to move higher the last couple weeks, but they are back on track with steady moves higher, again I think right into Independence Day. Thin meats, brisket, flanks, sirloin flap, are mostly steady to lower. This continues to be a market with tight supply, make sure to stay ahead of your needs. POULTRY The decline in boneless skinless breast meat continues next week. The heavy production we’ve seen so far this year is finally catching up a bit on the suppliers. They are discounting breast meat to keep it moving. Tenders are holding steady another week while wings finally bottomed out last week and are moving up, just a bit, but they are moving up again. The avian flu reports over the last week, 7 new cases affecting 107K birds, mostly ducks. GRAINS Soy was up like a rocket all week, until today. There will be increases in soy oil in the short term, hopefully we can see this turn back down. Wheat is giving back all its recent gains and we should see some lower prices on wheat. Corn closed at $4.39 today down from last week’s $4.62. New crop estimates will not be pushing this market higher anytime soon. PORK Pork bellies closed today at $120 up from last week’s $112. This is still great pricing for this time of year. I do expect bellies will be moving higher into the summer. One analyst estimated we could see $180 bellies which should be about the top end of this run. Butts continue to be in demand and pushing prices up. Ribs getting the same push higher. Loins are holding steady, don’t see anything to push them higher right now. DAIRY CME Thru Thursday’s close Butter is up 7, taking back all those recent declines. Both barrel and block are down 1. Production is good, I don’t see much to push cheese higher right now. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

May 29, 20263 min

Stay Ahead of Your Needs

BEEF I’ve been saying for weeks to stay ahead of your needs, and I’m going to reiterate, stay ahead of your needs, as demand does seem to be ticking up a bit. Weekly harvest is not moving up to help meet that demand. Last week’s harvest was 528K head, down from the prior week’s 535K head. While middle meats are struggling to move higher, ground beef is on the march higher every day. Retail ground beef is now averaging over $7/# for the first time…ever. I don’t see this backing off any time soon. Increases in chucks and rounds are very modest but they are moving higher again. Thin meats, briskets, flanks, sirloin flap, are showing some weakness, we could see a correction on this over the next couple of weeks, but it will be pretty minor. Staying with the theme, keep ahead of your needs. POULTRY Boneless Skinless breasts decline again for next week. Getting to be a pretty big spread between breast meat and tenderloins, tenderloins holding pretty steady. Wings holding steady next week too. Production continues over last year running almost 3% up from over last year. Breast meat is turning into a great value as the price declines. On the Avian flu beat, a really good week, two new cases totaling 11,600 ducks. GRAINS Corn declined this week, closing today at $4.62 down from last week’s $4.75 close. Wheat was showing signs of a bit of a run, but that is about done, we could see wheat decline over the next couple weeks. Soy was actually showing some weakness, until Tuesday this week, soy is now on the move higher. This could be short lived, but right now, soy oil is moving up. PORK Pork bellies bottomed out last week at $104. Today’s close $112. Still a great value for this time of year, I’m buying bacon. Summer is typically a high demand time for butts and ribs, and both are moving up steadily. Loins continue to be a great protein value. DAIRY CME Last week the CME looked like it was going to move overall lower. This week thru Thursdays close, butter is up 3 while block and barrel both declined another 5 cents. We’ll keep watching but I don’t see much to push higher in the short term. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

May 22, 20263 min

Summer Grilling Had Me a Blast

BEEF We are rolling into the summer demand for things that go on the grill. The most common will be burgers, and I do think we will see burgers to continue higher every week, probably all the way to Independence Day. Production numbers continue in the same volume we’ve seen for months now. 535K head harvested last week, 527K the week prior. I really don’t see that improving anytime soon. We are seeing Middle meats, those ribeyes, tenderloins and strips moving up again after a few weeks' breather. Grinds still heading higher. Chucks and rounds holding pretty steady, but they could be moving higher if demand for ground beef gets those cuts added to the grinder. We should see some relief on thin meats, briskets and sirloin flap in particular are moving lower and that should continue at least a few weeks. It's an interesting market, I’d still stay ahead of my needs, but there could be some deals to be had. POULTRY Chicken production continues to outpace last year by almost 3%. Demand is meeting supply but there is plenty of product available. Randoms and wings are actually down for next week, tenders holding steady. I do think this market will turn higher as we get into the heat of summer, but I don’t expect any big spikes like we’ve seen in years past. Looks like chicken is positioned to be on the grill this summer. On the avian flu front, another six new cases affecting 57K birds. No fun losing any birds but this is looking pretty good as the weather heats up. GRAINS Took a week to figure out we don’t have a big grain rally after all. Demand for soy continues strong but doubts about deals with China are pushing all the grain markets lower. Corn almost hit $5 last week, today back to $4.75/bushel. Soy has leveled off, I would not be surprised to see some decline, not much, but some over the next couple weeks. Wheat is shaping up to have a less than great domestic crop, flour is up a bit and of the three grains we watch, wheat has me watching. PORK I absolutely did not have bellies for $104 at Memorial Day in my market expectations. I thought last week at $121 was something. I don’t know how long this low market will last but it is not something we would usually see this time of year. It's time to buy bacon! Contrary to that, butts and ribs continue to show strength and up a few cents next week. Loins continue to be steady and a great protein value. DAIRY CME I didn’t see the belly market crash, and I don’t know if this week is a trend or an event, we’ll see what next week brings. Through Thursday’s CME close butter is down 6, block is down 6, and barrel also down 6. Let's see where this goes next. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

May 15, 20263 min

Pennies Up, Pennies Down

BEEF Beef is ready to move higher into the high demand summer season. Beef harvest however continues with lower production numbers, 527K head last week, 534K the week prior. We may see small increases too over the next few weeks but I’m not seeing anything to make this market change the current mood of tight supplies and increasing prices. The move higher has begun with this week’s trading. Middle meats are already pretty inflated, but they will push up over the next few weeks. Grinds will be leading the way with strong demand both in retail and foodservice. Rounds and chucks have leveled off for now but should follow the grind pricing higher. Middle meats that pushed up so hard in April into May are holding onto all those recent gains, but I don’t see them moving much higher in the near term. Beef will continue to move higher over the next few weeks. POULTRY Chicken on the other hand is in great position, increasing production about 3% over last year, increasing egg sets which tells me we expect to continue to grow market share and I do think keeping prices affordable will be a key to summer chicken success. Next week, we see pennies up, pennies down, this market is well supplied and feels in a good position to move into summer. On the Avian flu front, 6 new cases affecting 79k birds, mostly ducks. Any loss is too many, but this is much better data over the last couple weeks as weather gets warmer as this virus does not like hot weather. GRAINS While soy has been the story the last month moving up every day, things have leveled off and we could see some giveback over the next couple weeks. Corn is on the move, something not thought in months. Corn closed today at $4.90, the highest close since May 2025. Wheat is now the leader on the move higher, mostly from mediocre crop reports domestically and international demand. We are seeing the highest wheat costs since June of 2024. Expect price increases on flour and bakery goods. PORK Pork bellies moving lower again, closing at $121 down from last weeks $125. Good time to buying bacon. We typically see a surge in belly prices as the weather warms, but not this year. I’m watching but I don’t see anything to move this market higher just yet. Butts on the other hand are moving higher, about $.10/# for next week, that’s a good move for pork butts, ribs also showing summer increases while loins continue to be the value in protein. DAIRY CME is a split decision this week, thru Thursday’s close butter is up 2 after a couple weeks decline, block down 2 and barrel down 1. Looks like raw material is in good supply so I’m thinking we will continue on this minor weekly change, at least a bit. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

May 8, 20263 min

Bellies Off to the Races

Thanks for joining me today, let's look at a few markets heading into Mother’s Day weekend. Let's start as usual with beef. We’ve had a couple weeks of relatively stable pricing, and I think we’ve got another week, maybe two before summer fun and demand start pushing prices up. Beef harvest last week was 534K head, up a few from the 529K the week prior. That keeps inventories very tight. Middle meats, those Ribeyes, strip loins, and tenderloins are finding modest support moving minimally higher. Rounds and chucks are holding fairly steady. I think as we see hamburger move higher, makes sense to move chucks and rounds into the grinder to support ground beef demand. Thin meats were on a rocket heading into May. They aren’t giving back any of those recent gains, but they are holding fairly steady for now. I do think this is a buying opportunity as I do think this market will turn higher over the next few weeks. Chicken production continues pace ahead of last year by about 2%. Demand is holding up though we do see a small decline in boneless skinless random breasts, tenders and party wings are holding steady for the week. I do think the next move for chicken prices will push higher but as with beef, I think we’ll take a breather for a week or so. On Avian Flu, a very good week, one new case reported affecting 110 birds. We had a tough start to spring but hopefully this is a sign of a calmer end of spring into summer. Soy continues to demand the attention in grain pushing higher every day. When gas is high as we are currently seeing, soy demand for biofuels gets serious, corn continues to be steady closing at $4.72 up from last week $4.71, so not much going on in corn. Wheat is getting international interest and pushing up a bit. Pork bellies are down again this week, todays close $125, down from last week $135. I do think we will see a summer run on bellies but looks like we have some buying opportunities before that happens. The rest of the pork complex is seeing increases, butts and ribs moving up for the week, while loins continue to be a great value. The CME close on Thursday shows a well-balanced market, butter is down 5, barrel has not change and block is down 1. We can always use a bit of good news on the CME.Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

April 17, 20263 min

Bellies Drop while Beef Corrects

Try to say "Avian Flu Front" five times fast, go ahead, give it a whirl. The beef market is continuing the market correction started last week. Middle meats were leading this market higher, and now they are leading this market lower. Ribeyes, Tenderloins, Strip Loins, all lower for the week. Rounds and Chucks coming off as well. The one area the reduced harvest numbers are really pushing on is thin meats, briskets, flanks, sirloin flap, and skirt steak all steadily moving higher each week. I expect we will see this continue higher right into Cinco de Mayo. Mother’s Day is right after, so we do have some events coming to move some beef. I’d still stay ahead of my needs, cattle harvest was only 512K last week, down from 533K the week before so while prices may be declining, inventories continue to be tight. Chicken demand remains strong and production is continuing to outpace last year running about 2% up for the year. Recently boneless skinless randoms and tenders have been on a weekly move higher. It looks like randoms will take a little breather and actually decline a few pennies, tenders and wings will continue higher for next week. Overall I still see this market continuing higher at least the next few weeks. On the Avian flu front, another relatively good week, 3 new cases affecting 251K birds. Heat is not this virus’s friend, so hopefully as the weather warms the virus will be less active. War can’t move the corn market, this week’s close $4.55/bushel, last week’s close $4.53. New crop is coming and we still have plenty of last year’s crop and I believe still some 2024 crop; there is lots of corn available. Soy: now soy moved higher a few weeks ago, not letting go those recent gains and demand for biofuel is keeping soybeans moving. Wheat is seeing effects of internation unrest, market is up $.13bushel from last week. Nothing to panic but I think we will see modest increases in flour pricing. I started seeing the pork belly market move lower this week, then it just dropped, today’s close $136 down from last week’s $149. This market reset should move bacon prices down. The rest of the pork complex is moving by pennies, butts, loins, ribs, all a good value with good availability. A split market this week in dairy, thru Thursday’s close the CME for butter is up 2, while the barrel is down 1 and block down 3. Production numbers say this should be a stable market at least for the next few weeks. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

April 10, 20263 min

Tentative Good News for Beef

We are well into spring now and some things are shaking in the beef market. First good news, though the strike is not settled, the JBS workers are returning to work while negotiations continue. Good news, beef harvest increased to 533K still running about 10% behind last year, supplies remain very tight. Good news, market prices seem to be pushing back a bit, maybe this is moving higher too quickly? I still think this bull market will continue to move higher into spring, but I do think we’ve got a little breather for a week or so. Rounds and chucks are both down a bit this week, more good news. Middle meats are steady to slightly higher this week, but thin meats, those flanks, skirt, sirloin flat meat, all still expensive and moving higher. Typically, thin meats will peak around Cinco de Mayo, which is not that far way. POULTRY: Chicken production continues to outpace last year, up 2% so far this year. Hatch rate is improving 79.3% - chicken is in full production. Demand is right there with it, chicken, still a great value in protein, but pricing is moving higher. Boneless skinless randoms breasts, tenders, party wings, all moving higher. I think we’ll see this market move higher the next few weeks. On Avian flu, a relatively good week with 3 new cases affecting 111K birds. As spring migration tapers off let's hope the virus does too. GRAINS : Corn barely moved from $4.54 to $4.53 this week. Wheat about the same, soy is holding onto all their recent gains. With the cost of fuel moving higher, demand for biofuels will increase, soy and canola continue to inch up on daily markets. PORK: Last week bellies closed at $149, same this week, steady at $149. I’m thinking we will continue in this $150 market for a few more weeks, next move should be higher, but I’m going to push that out a few weeks. The rest of the pork complex is well supplied and priced well. Butts inch up a penny, loins and ribs steady. DAIRY Dairy markets holding pretty steady for the week, Thru Thursday’s CME close block is down 2, barrel is steady, no change, and butter down 4. Spring production is good and availability is very good. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

April 3, 20262 min

An Interesting Summer For Beef

Beef production continues to keep inventories tight and prices pushing higher. Beef harvest last week was 520K head, up a bit from the 503K the week prior but still not enough to fill the demand. Middle meats, those strips loins, tenderloins and ribeyes continue to push higher every week. Thin meats, think flank, skirt, sirloin flap, all are in tight supply and pushing higher every week. Grinds held steady for the next week but I do think we will see grinds pushing higher with all the other cuts. This is a buy now, waiting will cost you money market. And I’m adding keep well ahead of your needs, this is going to be an interesting summer for beef. POULTRY Chicken continues to roll on, production continues about 2% over last year and demand is taking all that production. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders moving up again next week and this seems to be a pattern we could see for a few weeks. Wings holding steady after last week’s move higher. Even with the recent increases chicken remains the choice for protein value. On Avian flu, a relatively good week with 9 new cases affecting 98K birds. GRAINS – Even war cant move the cost of corn. Corn closed at $4.59 just up from $4.58 last week. Preliminary estimates for this years crop down 5 million acres from last year, while soy is planning more acreage. The soy rally is pushing up again after a couple weeks stall. Wheat is moving higher mostly on international unrest. PORK Pork bellies are hanging right around that $150 mark, today’s close $149. We could see this move higher but I think it will be later in spring or early summer. The rest of the pork complex is well supplied and pricing is good. DAIRY Another quiet week on the CME, which will be closed on Good Friday so this is the week’s close. Butter dropped 3, barrel is up 1, and block had no change. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

March 27, 20262 min

An Expensive Cinco De Mayo

Beef demand is not backing down, consumer demand for protein continues to increase even as our beef industry continues to contract. No doubt aided by the JBS strike, beef production was only 508K head last week and I expect we will see similar numbers for this week. The market is tight, there is just not that much beef coming to market. Prices are moving higher pretty much across the board. Middle meats, those strips, ribeyes and tenderloins continue to lead this market higher. Thin meats, skirt, flank, sirloin flap, all tight and moving higher, setting up a very expensive Cinco de Mayo. I will continue to recommend buying as soon as feasible, waiting in this market will cost you money, and with the tight inventory,I’d keep as far ahead on needs as possible. I think I say this every year but the summer grilling season will be expensive.POULTRY Chicken demand continues strong as well as production which continues about 2% over last year. Even with strong supply, prices are moving higher. Wings come out of their funk moving up a few pennies while boneless skinless random breasts and clipped tenders are moving up every day. I do expect chicken to continue moving higher over the next few weeks.On the avian flu front, another 15 new cases affecting 130K birds, this week, mostly ducks.GRAINS – the recent run up on soy and canola has hit a pause, week two holding onto recent gains, but not advancing further. There is still plenty of inventory to meet demand. Corn and wheat continue to tread in the same narrow trading band, we have plenty of grains to move.PORK Pork bellies down a dollar from last week to $152, I still expect we could see $200 bellies this summer. Pork production is good, well supplied. Loins are moving higher by a few cents, butts and ribs holding steady.DAIRY Dairy markets had a fairly quiet week, butter is steady, block is up 3 and barrel is up 2. I do think we have more upside to this market.OK with that I’m done, thanks for listening, we’ll do agaiSavalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn

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