Macro Minutes

Hosted by RBC Capital Markets

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106

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Jun 2026

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About the show

Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.

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60 recent

June 12, 202612 min

Going for a hike!

Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meeting and compare and contrast the two central banks’ approach to monetary policy at present.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

June 5, 202618 min

Investment strategy through the ‘up crash’ and beyond

Recorded at the Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference in New York, this special edition brings a real-time read on where markets stand. Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joined Amy Wu Silverman and Callie Simpkins for an on-the-ground conversation about the US equity outlook and key macro themes. They break down why inflation remains the risk to watch and what it means for equity market positioning.Participants:Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyAmy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives StrategyCallie Simpkins, Managing Director, Cross-Asset Hedge Fund Sales* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

May 29, 202616 min

Limbo of war

There are good reasons to wait for confirmation of a deal before loading up on risk. But while we wait, we recommend being oil-neutral via RV strategies between energy importers. In a post-war world, we see opportunities to turn bullish on currencies that have been dragged by the war. We also discuss potential the impact of politics in Latam and EMEA FX, China fiscal stimulus, KRW underperformance, and more.Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

May 15, 202616 min

Anarchy in the UK?

Sterling markets have had a rough ride over the last few weeks. In part this is against the backdrop of the oil price shock, but it is also due to the domestic political uncertainty that has once again come to the fore. In this episode, Peter Schaffrik and Cathal Kennedy unpick the difficult situation, provide a view on the outcome of the recent turmoil along with an outlook on what the political landscape in the UK might look like in the months and years to come.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

May 11, 202622 min

Positivity isn’t always naivete

Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means for forward guidance, dissent, and market volatility, and what the shifting policy backdrop means for how investors position across equities and rates.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

April 28, 202614 min

Searching for EM opportunities

Uncertainty on the path of the Iran conflict remains. The second and third order effects for the global economy have yet to be seen, but FX markets are taking an optimistic view on the outcome of the conflict. In this episode, we look at how emerging markets have been responding over the past two months, and what we are paying attention to for opportunities across Latin America, Asia, and EMEA.Participants:Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

April 15, 202620 min

To hike, or not, that is the question

Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before the war started. Policy responses will not be uniform across countries but some central banks might be inclined to move pre-emptively while others could wait a lot longer. In episode we discuss why hikes could occur by mid-year in the UK & Europe while the BoC and Fed will be more patient and hold the line.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

April 9, 202625 min

Private Credit - a public affair?

In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wrote a detailed note about the private credit market and the potential pitfalls. Marc and Peter recap why markets have recently become wary of private credit, explore where the problems might lie and what potential contagion channels into the public markets exist.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsMarc Sanchez (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Sector Strategy*Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

April 2, 202628 min

Weakest links!

In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporters like Australia are feeling the pinch, how central banks will respond to stagflation, and why US equities have remained resilient , though caution is warranted as more significant market headwinds may be emerging.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsRobert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates StrategistIzaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

March 26, 202617 min

Stress Testing EMFX for Oil

The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would allow oil prices to retreat toward $80 per barrel, providing relief to EM economies and supporting risk assets. The second scenario contemplates further escalation, potentially including boots-on-the-ground military intervention, which would keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. This sustained pressure would create headwinds for EM growth, inflation dynamics, and external balances. We assess the implications of each path for emerging market currencies.Participants:Luis Estrada(Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts