Key Wealth Matters

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Key Wealth Matters, a podcast series hosted by the experts of the Key Wealth Institute, explores the biggest news of today to determine how these headlines can impact wealth plans, financial strategies, markets, and investments. Join our team of advisors for unbiased, proactive advice about individual and family finances, estate and legacy planning, family dynamics, investing, as well as trends for business owners, nonprofits, and institutions. To submit potential topics or questions to our experts, contact us via email at Key_Wealth_Institute@keybank.com. For more information, articles, or other insights related to wealth management, visit key.com/ourinsights. _____________________________________________________ We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases including but not limited to Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), Dow Jones / Dow Jones Newsplus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks / Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ICE BofA (Bank of America) MOVE Index, Morningstar / Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor’s and Wall Street Journal / WSJ.com. Key Wealth, Key Private Client, Key Private Bank, Key Family Wealth, and KeyBank Institutional Advisors are brand names used by KeyBank National Association (KeyBank). Key Wealth and Key Private Client are also brand names used by Key Investment Services LLC (KIS), member FINRA/SIPC and SEC-registered investment advisor. The Key Wealth Institute is comprised of financial professionals representing KeyBank National Association (KeyBank) and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC (KIS) and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA Inc. (KIA). Any opinions, projections, or recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, are those of the individual author(s), and may not necessarily represent the views of KeyBank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. This material presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or product or to employ a specific investment or tax planning strategy. KeyBank, nor its subsidiaries or affiliates, represent, warrant or guarantee that this material is accurate, complete or suitable for any purpose or any investor and it should not be used as a basis for investment or tax planning decisions. It is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. It should not be construed as individual tax, legal or financial advice. The summaries, prices, quotes and/or statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. They are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended to replace any confirmations or statements. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Brokerage and certain investment advisory services are offered through Key Investment Services LLC (KIS), member FINRA/SIPC and SEC-registered investment advisor. Insurance products are offered through KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA, Inc. (KIA) and underwritten by third party insurance carriers not affiliated with KIS. KIS and KIA are affiliates under the common control of KeyCorp. To learn more about KIS’s investment business, as well as our relationship with you, please review our KIS Disclosure page. Check the background of KIS on FINRA's BrokerCheck. Non-Deposit products are: NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT BANK GUARANTEED • MAY LOSE VALUE • NOT A DEPOSIT • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE GOVERNMENT AGENCY ©2026 KeyCorp®. All rights reserved.

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June 12, 2026Episode 21625 min

A New Fed Era Begins as Inflation Lingers and Markets Broaden

Markets ended the week balancing persistent inflation data, evolving Fed expectations, and shifting equity leadership. CPI and PPI both surprised to the upside, reinforcing the view that inflation remains sticky and likely keeps the Fed in a restrictive stance ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added volatility early in the week, markets recovered on signs of potential de-escalation. In equities, leadership broadened beyond mega caps, with equal weight indices gaining strength as investors reassess concentration risk. With rates expected to stay higher for longer, disciplined positioning and diversification remain key in navigating the current environment. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:05 — CPI and PPI show persistent inflation pressures04:00 — Fed outlook ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting06:30 — Geopolitics and market reaction to Middle East tensions10:00 — Bond market implications and higher for longer rate expectations15:15 — Equity market breadth improves as SpaceX IPO draws attention Additional ResourcesNational Call Replay: 2026 Mid-Year CIO UpdateRead Now: Corporate Transparency Act — Where Are We Now (2026)? Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

June 5, 2026Episode 21527 min

Cracks in the AI Trade, a Strong Jobs Print, and the Summer Fed Watch

This week’s conversation points to an economy that is still expanding, but with a market narrative that may be shifting. Manufacturing and services remained in expansion, job openings improved, and May payrolls came in stronger than expected, reinforcing a firmer labor backdrop ahead of the June FOMC meeting. At the same time, the team discusses early cracks in the AI trade, the potential for rotation as large IPOs approach, and why higher yields may persist. In fixed income, resilient credit markets still favor quality, while policy and inflation remain central watchpoints for portfolio positioning. Continue the conversation at our upcoming Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO Update on June 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:39 — Manufacturing, services, Beige Book, JOLTS, and May payrolls.05:16 — Middle East developments, oil inventories, and summer supply risks.08:10 — AI trade cracks, Broadcom, and the coming SpaceX IPO.16:54 — Jobs, Fed expectations, higher yields, and resilient credit.23:07 — National Call reminder and what investors should watch next. Additional ResourcesRegister Now: Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO UpdateRead: Key Questions: What’s Behind the Back Up in Global Bond Yields? Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

May 29, 2026Episode 21425 min

The Rally Rolls On as Risks Start to Build

Markets are navigating a complex mix of persistent inflation, steady growth, and evolving Fed leadership. Recent data shows elevated PCE inflation alongside a modest GDP revision, keeping policy expectations fluid. While rate cuts appear unlikely in the near term, the possibility of tighter policy remains on the table. Equity markets continue to reach new highs, though leadership has narrowed, raising questions about sustainability. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments and energy prices remain key inputs for investors assessing risk, positioning, and the durability of the current market backdrop. Continue the conversation at our upcoming Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO Update on June 9, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:40 — Memorial Day recap and market setup for the week03:05 — FOMC minutes and shift away from easing bias05:00 — PCE inflation and GDP revision overview09:30 — Fed outlook and rate path uncertainties14:30 — Narrow equity leadership and market concentration risks Additional ResourcesRegister Now: Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO UpdateRead: The ABCs of 529 Plans Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

May 15, 2026Episode 21330 min

Fed Chair Transition, Sticky Inflation, and Why Diversification Still Matters

This week’s discussion reviews how hotter inflation readings pushed yields higher and challenged the market’s near-term policy assumptions. The group outlines what the latest CPI and PPI data could imply for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge later this month, and why resilient credit spreads and steady corporate bond issuance matter for risk conditions. A deep dive then shifts to international and emerging markets, highlighting concentration tied to the AI supply chain, China’s transition toward strategic industries, and how geopolitics and oil-linked inflation risks may complicate the global backdrop. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeJohn Simmons, Senior Research AnalystMichael Kehoe, Senior Lead Research Analyst 01:58 — Panel introductions and the week’s agenda 06:44 — Inflation data implications and the Fed policy backdrop 11:47 — International markets deep dive begins 18:59 — China themes and AI-driven strategic investment 26:12 — Upcoming national call and schedule update Additional ResourcesRegister Now: Key Wealth National Call: 2026 Mid-Year CIO UpdateRead Now: Key Questions: Are Your Young Adult's Essential Documents Ready for Graduation? Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

May 8, 2026Episode 21222 min

Investing Through Divergence in Rates, Earnings, and Global Risks

This week’s discussion focuses on a market that continues to advance despite crosscurrents in geopolitics, inflation, and monetary policy. The team reviews steady gains in equities, resilient labor data, and improving productivity, offset by persistent inflation uncertainty tied to energy prices and global tensions. Panelists outline why the Federal Reserve remains on hold amid internal disagreement and shifting leadership expectations, while bond markets emphasize carry over duration risk. In equities, earnings momentum and AI related themes are broadening beyond traditional leaders, creating both opportunity and valuation risk. The conversation closes with a look at tariffs and trade policy, which remain a source of uncertainty but appear less market moving than earlier in the year. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeSam Snyder, Director of Equity Research 01:30 — Weekly market overview and key economic releases04:19 — Iran geopolitical developments and oil price implications07:17 — Fed policy outlook, inflation risks, and rate expectations13:06 — Equity market performance, AI themes, and market breadth17:13 — Tariffs, trade policy, and near‑term market relevance Additional ResourcesRead Now: Key Questions: Are Your Young Adult's Essential Documents Ready for Graduation?Read Now: From Drafts to Decisions: Estate Planning Beyond AI Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

May 1, 2026Episode 21127 min

This Week’s Trifecta: A Split Fed, Powell’s Swan Song and AI-Driven Earnings

This week’s discussion centers on a Federal Reserve on pause but increasingly divided, as inflation data and geopolitical risks complicate the policy path. The team reviews a stronger‑than‑expected GDP reading, a PCE inflation uptick driven by energy prices, and what multiple FOMC dissents signal about rate expectations for the rest of 2026. They also cover Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed Chair and what it means for the FOMC. They also examine how resilient earnings growth, particularly tied to AI investment and capital spending, is shaping market leadership. The conversation frames what these dynamics mean for positioning as investors balance policy uncertainty, elevated inflation risks, and continued pockets of economic strength. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:45 — Weekly data check: claims, GDP, and March PCE inflation04:15 — FOMC recap and implications of multiple dissents09:20 — Rate cut expectations and the outlook for 2026 policy16:20 — Earnings strength and the impact of AI spending23:00 — Geopolitics, energy prices, and late‑cycle risks Additional ResourcesRead Now: Key Questions: Is Kevin Warsh About to Change the Fed – Not Just Rates? Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

April 24, 2026Episode 21026 min

Signals in Motion: What the Data, the Fed, and AI Are Telling Us Now

Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income01:48 - We open with key economic data, focusing on stable initial unemployment claims as a sign of labor market resilience and a strong March retail sales report that shows consumer spending remains healthy, even after adjusting for higher gasoline and auto prices. 03:04 - We frame the broader macro backdrop, noting limited economic releases during the week while setting up three major themes: geopolitical developments tied to Iran, renewed discussion around tariffs and potential refunds, and upcoming Federal Reserve dynamics. 05:18 - We discuss geopolitical risks from the Iran war, particularly impacts on oil prices, supply chains, airlines, and inflation, emphasizing the uncertainty around resolution and the potential for continued market volatility. 07:46 - We shift to corporate and labor market implications of AI, examining recent layoffs at major tech firms like Meta and Microsoft and debating whether these moves reflect profit protection, efficiency gains, or a deeper structural shift driven by AI adoption. 10:43 - We analyze market leadership and sector rotation, highlighting a resurgence in technology, semiconductors, and communication services after the Hormuz-related selloff, alongside weakness in cyclicals such as industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary. 13:31 - We explore AI’s productivity potential and its implications for the Fed, discussing how uneven AI adoption could reshape productivity, influence inflation, and factor into monetary policy thinking amid a possible change in Fed leadership. 14:31 - We conclude with Federal Reserve policy and bond market dynamics, covering expectations for a “Fed on hold,” a flat yield curve, diminished rate-cut expectations for 2026, Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing signals, and breaking news affecting Jerome Powell’s legal situation and Fed chair succession uncertainty. Additional ResourcesWatch: National Call Replay: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

April 21, 2026Episode 20924 min

Markets Look Past Iran Headlines as Oil Risks Evolve

This week’s conversation focuses on how investors are weighing geopolitics against a market that’s showing signs of repair. The episode walks through key economic updates on housing, inflation, and manufacturing, then shifts to the latest Iran developments and what they could mean for energy supply chains, including jet fuel. On equities, the rally is framed as trend-positive but still uneven, with leadership tied to technology and the AI supply chain. On fixed income, the focus is on yield curve dynamics and a more hesitant policy backdrop. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:10 — Quick economic read: housing, inflation, claims, and manufacturing 06:36 — Iran update and what it means for oil and shipping routes 10:31 — Equity setup: trend repair, limited breadth, tech leadership 15:59 — Rates and the yield curve: what’s moving, and why it matters 20:03 — FedSpeak signals and why rate cuts look further out in the year Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions: What Might Be Some of the Lasting Takeaways from the War in Iran?Read: 2026 State Summary of Inheritance, Estate, Gift, and Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

April 10, 2026Episode 20824 min

Playing Through the Rough: PCE, CPI, and a Hawkish Fed Backdrop

This week’s discussion focuses on how geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations are driving markets more than fundamentals. Attention stays on developments in Iran and what a potential ceasefire could mean for energy prices, the dollar, and near-term volatility. Inflation remains a key swing factor, with mixed readings and a tone in recent Fed messaging that keeps the “higher for longer” debate alive. Against that backdrop, earnings progress can still be overshadowed as real rates pressure valuations and keep the market macro-driven. The conversation also frames what “fair value” looks like in municipal bonds versus Treasuries and why technicals and seasonality can matter in the months ahead. The takeaway emphasizes patience, diversification, and selective opportunity while headline risk stays elevated. For additional context, watch our national call replay Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerStephen Hoedt, Head of EquitiesTim McDonough, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management 01:55 — The week’s inflation, employment, growth, and Iran setup 04:10 — PCE vs. CPI: what each read implies for Fed policy 10:15 — Strait of Hormuz risk and longer-run energy infrastructure shifts 15:23 — Municipal bonds: March drawdown, ratios, and supply-demand headwinds 20:34 — Closing message: volatility, diversification, and tuning out noise Additional ResourcesRegister Now: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn

March 27, 2026Episode 20725 min

Markets in the Fog: War Risk, Earnings Reality, and Higher Rates

This week’s discussion centers on how geopolitical risk, shifting rate expectations, and resilient earnings are reshaping the investment landscape. With economic data light, attention turns to the Iran conflict and its uneven market impact, including higher energy prices and renewed volatility. Equity valuations have reset meaningfully even as forward earnings expectations remain firm, reframing downside risk. The panel explores why markets now price a potential rate hike instead of cuts, how that shift is pressuring bonds and housing, and where leadership may reemerge once macro uncertainty fades. The takeaway emphasizes patience, selective opportunity, and disciplined positioning amid elevated uncertainty. We invite our listeners to continue the conversation on April 1 during the Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 01:33 — Initial claims update and delayed economic data02:44 — Iran conflict and the market’s muted reaction05:35 — Earnings momentum versus falling equity multiples11:42 — Rate expectations flip from cuts to possible hikes19:42 — Staying disciplined as volatility creates opportunity Additional ResourcesRegister Now: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path. Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn