EP33 - Forecasting for an ESOP: Planning for a Future You Can’t Predict
The best way to determine whether an ESOP plan holds up is simple—and uncomfortable: tell us where you think the company is headed and prove why. In this episode, Jason Miller and Makenzie Ragland explore how forecasting can help owners prepare for an ESOP transaction and make better decisions along the way. They explore the key inputs behind a reasonable forecast, including historical performance, business drivers, capacity, and other assumptions—and how those projections can influence valuation and transaction feasibility. They also discuss comparing forecasts to actual results, building different scenarios, and avoiding overly optimistic assumptions. how factors such as backlog, bonding capacity, working capital, labor, and margins can shape the outlook. Ultimately, a strong forecast isn’t about getting every number right. It’s about giving owners a realistic view of where the business is going—and helping owners make informed decisions about what comes next.





