Avory - Markets and Investing

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112

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Jul 2026

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About the show

Around the Desk: This is where we at Avory think out loud, challenge narratives, and look for signal through the noise. Each episode, the Avory & Co. team dives into what’s moving markets, how companies are performing, and where opportunities may be forming. We break down earnings, macro trends, and investor sentiment — all from the lens of a concentrated, high-conviction portfolio. *** The views expressed on Avory Podcast: Around the Desk are those of the hosts and guests and do not constitute investment advice. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon to make investment decisions. All investments involve risk, including potential loss of capital. Avory & Co. may hold positions in the companies discussed.

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July 29, 2026Episode 9014 min

Debrief: 4 things we learned from Meta.

Sean Emory of Avory & Co. debriefs Meta's July 29, 2026 earnings call, framing four key questions: AI monetization, open vs closed source strategy, enterprise AI, and the CapEx path into 2027 and 2028. Chapters 00:00 Meta Earnings Debrief 01:14 Show Intro & Disclosures 01:55 Revenue & Guide Highlights 02:55 AI Monetization Flywheel 06:49 Open Versus Closed Models 08:46 Enterprise AI On WhatsApp 11:01 CapEx Outlook And Bottlenecks 13:04 Wrap Up & Key Takeaways This discussion is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment, legal, or tax advice. Views reflect our opinions as of the recording date and may change.

July 21, 2026Episode 8923 min

Humans Buy Platforms. AI Buys Capabilities.

Sean Emory of Avory & Co. explores how AI could change software competition if agents become buyers, not just users, shifting value from platform suites to composable, standalone capabilities. He frames three eras of software: individual tools, integrated platforms, and an emerging era where AI orchestration acts like a new operating system that selects the best capability for a task regardless of UI or vendor. In this model, winning depends less on distribution, brand, and long contracts, and more on reliability, latency, accuracy, security and governance, API quality, cost per call, and task success rates. Sean argues platforms won't disappear. They may become command centers for permissions, compliance, and governance, while features "escape" suites. He walks through examples from Shopify, Shop Pay, Stripe, Twilio, Zoom, Box, Salesforce, Adobe, and HubSpot. Chapters: 00:00 AI changes software buying 01:44 Three eras of software 03:10 Composable software era 03:55 Agents versus humans 05:06 Orchestrator as new OS 07:46 Capabilities escaping platforms 08:33 Examples: Shopify, Stripe, Zoom 12:28 New scorecard for winners 15:32 Two questions for companies 17:22 Where this could be wrong 19:48 Big picture takeaways 23:22 Closing and subscribe Listen on: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/avory-markets-and-investing/id1504555573 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3A8acTyfhhxpUFoFLEKeMJ YouTube: https://youtube.com/@avoryco Follow Sean and Avory & Co.: X: https://x.com/avoryco X: https://x.com/_SeanDavid LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/avory-co Website: https://avoryfunds.com Disclaimer The content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute personal investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Views expressed are those of Sean Emory and Avory & Co. as of the recording date and are subject to change without notice. Avory & Co. and Sean Emory may hold positions in the securities and companies discussed. Any references to specific companies, products, or services are for illustration only and should not be interpreted as recommendations. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision.

July 8, 2026Episode 8824 min

Prediction Markets Aren't Really About Betting... Maybe?

Welcome to Avory Around the Desk Podcast... Sean Emory, Founder and CIO of Avory & Co., asks whether prediction markets like Kalshi are really about betting, or whether they could expand society's capacity to transfer risk. Using Florida's hurricane insurance crunch, the Generac hedge, and AI-enabled micro-insurance, he argues insurance is capacity, and technology may finally be able to expand it. Chapters 00:00 Welcome and setup 01:19 Why prediction markets matter 02:49 Markets as information engines 05:55 From betting to bigger thesis 07:17 Insurance prices uncertainty 09:28 Capacity and risk transfer 11:41 Florida hurricanes case study 13:06 Hedging with opposite exposures 15:04 Micro risks and AI automation 18:31 Tech stack enables new markets 21:15 Liquidity, market makers, regulation 22:56 Wrap up and key takeaway Disclaimer This conversation is for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing discussed is personalized investment, legal, tax, or insurance advice. Views reflect our thinking as of the recording date and may evolve as new information becomes available. Do your own research and consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions. More at avoryfunds.com

July 2, 2026Episode 8752 min

Five Questions for the Second Half of 2026

Avory’s Mid-2026 View Luis Alvarez and Avory Chief Investment Officer Sean Emory review the first half and outline Avory’s second-half views through five questions: 00:00 Five Big Questions 00:36 Show Format And Macro Setup 01:35 Market Bifurcation And AI Trade 05:00 Laggards, Ceasefire And Rotation 07:45 Is AI Really Macro Immune 10:44 Hyperscaler CapEx Reality Check 12:53 Trim Infrastructure And Be Selective 13:39 First Order Vs Second Order AI 20:08 Second Order Identity And Trust 23:09 Capital Flows And Blackstone Angle 23:51 Where Second Order ROI Shows Up 25:16 Why Zoom Fits The AI Stack 27:07 Zoom as Context Hub 28:49 AI Meeting Workflows 30:04 Anthropic Stake Math 31:34 Real Estate Rate Shock 33:21 AI Deflation Thesis 36:47 Consumer Health Check 38:56 Fed Embraces Real Time 40:25 AI Spend Reality Check 43:57 Durable Compounders Case 47:23 Rapid Fire Wrap Up Hosted by Sean Emory Founder & Chief Investment Officer Avory & Co. Website www.avory.xyz Disclaimer This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All opinions expressed are as of the date of recording and are subject to change without notice. Any securities discussed may or may not remain in the portfolio. Please consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.

June 26, 2026Episode 8629 min

6 Questions on Meta: Burden Today, Moat Tomorrow

Burden Today or a Moat for Tomorrow. On the Avory Around the Desk podcast, Sean Emory of Avory & Company discusses why Meta may be misunderstood despite being the cheapest of the Mag 7, the second-fastest grower behind Nvidia, and having the highest gross margins in the group. He frames the key debate around whether Meta’s aggressive AI and infrastructure CapEx is a near-term free cash flow burden or a long-term competitive moat, arguing AI is directly strengthening Meta’s core ad business through better recommendations, engagement, and advertiser ROI. Sean highlights Zuckerberg’s capital-allocation track record, Meta’s distribution advantage across 3.56B users, and under-monetized assets like WhatsApp, Threads, and Meta AI. He outlines what to watch next, including signals of CapEx plateauing, revenue momentum, monetization progress, and risks such as a potential equity raise. 00:00 Meta Debate Setup 02:19 Six Questions Roadmap 03:11 Quick Disclaimer 03:41 Dont Bet Against Zuck 05:38 What Market Misses 10:00 Why Track Record Matters 14:03 Distribution Flywheel 16:54 CapEx Burden Or Moat 22:53 Free Cash Flow Path 24:36 What Were Watching 27:12 Valuation Discipline 28:01 Wrap Up And Next Steps Hosted by Sean Emory Founder & Chief Investment Officer Avory & Co. Website www.avory.xyz Disclaimer This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All opinions expressed are as of the date of recording and are subject to change without notice. Any securities discussed may or may not remain in the portfolio. Please consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.

June 12, 2026Episode 8519 min

Narratives, AI, and Durable Investment Bets

AI narrative momentum, durable value, and why Zoom and Roblox stand out | Around the Desk Ep. 85 Sean Emory, founder and CIO of Avory & Co., on the "AI on, AI off" market: where durable value actually accrues, why models may commoditize as open source catches up, and why ecosystem and context end up mattering more than the model itself. Plus a look at Zoom (Avory's top holding) for its cash, Anthropic stake, and communication-context data, and Roblox for consumer engagement and AI-enabled creation. He expects public AI listings to force scrutiny on profitability, margins, and capital intensity, and makes the case for patience and businesses that don't require perfect assumptions. Chapters 00:00 Podcast intro 00:33 Momentum and narratives 01:08 AI trade dominates 02:31 Where value accrues 03:16 Open source catching up 05:10 Models commoditize over time 06:28 Multi-model future 07:47 Infrastructure crowding risks 09:15 Energy bottlenecks 10:06 Durable investing mindset 10:35 Zoom as durable play 13:13 Roblox and creation flywheel 14:02 Macro uncertainty cycles 16:00 Public AI reality check 17:33 Staying patient and closing More from Avory & Co. www.avory.xyz Informational only. Not personal investment advice. Avory & Co. and Sean Emory may hold positions in securities discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

March 13, 2026Episode 3123 min

What Data Says About Oil Spike, Vix Spike, and AI

In this episode of Around the Desk, Sean Emory, Founder & CIO of Avory & Co., walks through several market signals that stood out this week. Markets are seeing multiple spikes simultaneously: • Oil prices jumping sharply • Volatility surging • Corporate insider buying rising in financials • Massive AI infrastructure spending from hyperscalers Rather than reacting to headlines, we step back and ask the more important question: what do these signals historically mean for markets? 00:00 Market Signals Overview 01:51 Disclaimer and Setup 02:10 Oil Spike Playbook 03:34 VIX Volatility Spike 04:32 Software and AI Reset 06:24 Consumer Liquidity Boost 07:36 Financial Insider Buying 08:26 Oil Impact and Scenarios 10:37 Election Incentives 11:39 AI Adoption Trends 15:33 CapEx Winners and Apple 16:57 AI Market Structure and Ads 21:28 Earnings Week Ahead 22:13 Wrap Up and Key Takeaways Hosted by Sean Emory Founder & Chief Investment Officer Avory & Co. Website www.avory.xyz Disclaimer This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All opinions expressed are as of the date of recording and are subject to change without notice. Any securities discussed may or may not remain in the portfolio. Please consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.

February 27, 2026Episode 3027 min

What did we learn from NVIDIA and Software this Week?

AI vs SaaS: Seat + Consumption Can Coexist Salesforce, Workday, Nvidia, Zoom, Block | Around the Desk This week on Around the Desk, Sean Emory breaks down a pivotal week for AI and enterprise software. Are seat-based models being replaced? Or is AI expanding the value of platforms? Using earnings and data from Salesforce, Workday, Nvidia, Zoom, and Block, Sean argues AI is enhancing durable platforms, not eliminating them. The winners are likely multi-product ecosystems with compliance depth, proprietary data, and embedded workflows. Not point solutions. 00:00 Welcome and Disclaimer 00:43 AI vs SaaS Big Week 02:13 Platforms vs Point Solutions 03:46 Salesforce Seats + Agents 07:06 Jobs Data 10:08 Buybacks + Workday 12:07 Inflation + Breadth 14:17 Nvidia + Valuations 17:26 AI Adoption + Limits 19:03 Capitulation Setup 22:08 Portfolio Updates 26:19 Closing Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The views expressed are as of the recording date and may change. The host and affiliated entities may hold positions in the companies discussed. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.

February 20, 2026Episode 2914 min

Are we closing in on a Software Bottom or No?

In this episode of Around the Desk, Sean Emory, Founder & CIO of Avory & Co., walks through the key market signals this week and asks a central question: Are we getting close to a bottom in software? Insiders are buying. Business formations are surging. Software job postings are rising. App creation is accelerating. Yet sentiment remains stretched. We break down what the data is actually saying. 00:00 Welcome + Disclosures 00:41 AI & Software Focus 01:20 Insider Buying Spike 02:50 Tariffs Update 05:25 Business Formation Surge 06:27 Travel & Dining Stable 06:58 Software Washout Signal 08:41 AI vs Jobs Data 10:05 App Creation Surge 11:08 Zoom + Car Wash Update 12:37 Big Earnings Week 13:50 Are We Near a Bottom? AI is reshaping software. But the data suggests expansion, not contraction. Hosted by: Sean Emory : Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Avory & Co. https://www.avory.xyz 📩 Questions: team@avoryco.com 🎙 Podcast: Around the Desk 📺 YouTube: @AvoryCo Disclaimer This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Opinions expressed are as of the recording date and are subject to change. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Please conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.

February 13, 2026Episode 2821 min

The AI Scare Trade: Jensen Says Its Illogical - We Agree

In this episode of Around the Desk, Sean Emory, Founder & CIO of Avory & Co., breaks down the recent software selloff and the broader AI scare trade. Inflation is cooling. Jobs are stable. Earnings are holding up. Yet parts of software are trading as if AI is about to eliminate entire business models. Does that make sense? Chapters: 00:00 Welcome + Disclaimer 00:40 Software Selloff vs AI Boom 02:20 Inflation Cooling: CPI, Break-evens, Rates 03:55 Jobs & Wages: Stability vs AI Fears 07:00 Zillow: Growth in a Flat Market 08:10 Airbnb: Global Growth + AI Tailwinds 08:45 The AI Scare Trade 11:05 Bonds Calm, Stocks Volatile 12:10 If AI Wins: Model Layer + Zoom’s Anthropic Upside 15:50 What Flips the Narrative: CapEx, Valuations, Retention, Buybacks 19:05 Positioning: Earnings Up, Prices Down 20:55 Closing: AI Expands Software, Not Shrinks It We cover macro signals, earnings from Zillow and Airbnb, headline-driven AI panic across industries, why credit markets look far calmer than equities, and the asymmetric upside in model-layer winners. AI is transformative. But transformation does not automatically mean extinction. When narrative and fundamentals diverge, opportunity can emerge. — Hosted by: Sean Emory — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Avory & Co. https://www.avory.xyz Questions: team@avoryco.com Podcast: Around the Desk YouTube: @AvoryCo — Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Opinions expressed are as of the recording date and are subject to change. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Please conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. © 2026 Avory & Co. All rights reserved.