ING THINK aloud

Officials from China and the US will meet in Switzerland this week to de-escalate a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains, deepened economic uncertainty, and triggered significant market volatility. In this podcast, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, discusses how the talks could unfold, and the impact of the tariffs on China’s economy this year and beyond.

President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2nd, a 90-day pause for most countries yet with escalating tariffs on China, exemptions on tech products from China, and later, news that these exemptions may only be temporary have left investors deeply unsettled.While much of the focus last week was on soaring Treasury yields and falling stock markets, corporate bonds were hit hard, too.Spreads on corporate bonds widened by the most since the regional banking crisis two years ago, as investors demanded higher returns in a riskier, more unpredictable environment.Bond funds have seen huge outflows and the market for new issues of debt has all but ground to a halt.In this podcast, ING's Credit Strategist Tim Rahill explains why he remains so cautious about the market and why investors need to be selective.

US-EU tariffs are a threat to the export-driven economies of Central and Eastern Europe.But ING economists argue that the region has ways to manage the disruption, and a trade war could serve as a much-needed catalyst for change.  In this podcast, a replay of our live webinar, ING’s Inga Fechner, Peter Virovacz, David Havrlant, Rafal Benecki, Valentin Tataru, and Muhammet Mercan explain why they think the region could prove to be more resilient than most expect.

The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that’s the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump’s newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.In an essay published late last year, Miran argued that the dollar's strength, driven by inelastic demand for Treasuries and the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency, has resulted in persistently cheap imports, reduced the competitiveness of its exports, eroded US manufacturing, and resulted in soaring deficits.His answer to this problem is a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, where trading partners would sell dollars and US Treasuries from their FX reserves or face higher tariffs and the removal of security guarantees.But is an overvalued dollar really to blame for America’s financial problems? Would trading partners agree to the plan? And what could it mean for the US markets?  In this podcast, ING’s Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey explain why they think the plan would be counterproductive and fraught with risk.

President Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend military support for Ukraine, coupled with his implicit threat to withdraw US forces from Europe unless Nato allies increase their defence spending, has upended the near 80-year transatlantic alliance, and left European countries scrambling to respond.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a ‘surge’ in defence spending and said nothing is off the table when it comes to raising money. Last week, she unveiled an €800bn plan to allow member states to increase spending and borrow money for defence purposes without violating the bloc’s strict budget rules.  But some EU member states have already pushed back, with highly indebted countries like Italy worried about the financial strain of the plan and Germany concerned about the implications for its fiscal conservatism.So who will pay, how much will they pay, and what will it all mean for Europe’s economy, markets, and security?In this podcast, ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski and Netherlands' Chief Economist Bert Colijn discuss the hard political and financial choices ahead for Europe and the chances of success.

In this podcast, ING commodities analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey share their views on the outlook for energy, metals, and agriculture in the year ahead.

A new US president, trade war threats, political instability in Europe, and mounting fiscal concerns obscure the outlook for the global economy in 2025. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the themes that will shape the economy, inflation, and interest rates over the coming year.

Aluminium is an essential metal in our daily lives. It also plays a crucial role in the energy transition, and demand is soaring. But producing aluminium is highly energy-intensive, and urgent action is needed to reduce the industry's carbon footprint. In this podcast, ING's Ewa Manthey, Egor Fedorov, and Coco Zhang discuss the ongoing efforts to make the industry more sustainable.

ING FX strategists Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, and Frantisek Taborsky discuss how Donald Trump's policies will reshape global currency markets in the year ahead.

Credit markets reacted positively to the outcome of the US election, with spreads - the difference between yields on corporate bonds relative to those on government securities - narrowing across the board. But the longer term implications are more complicated. ING analysts Jeroen van den Broek and Tim Rahill predict a tough year ahead for credit, with a Trump presidency one of 25 reasons to be cautious in 2025.  In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, Jeroen and Tim explain why they think spreads could widen next year and why investors need to be selective while strategists Suvi Platerink Kosenon and Jesse Norcross take a closer look at banks and real estate.