FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

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Episodes

129

Latest episode

Sep 2026

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EN-US

About the show

The euro goes up, the dollar goes down, and China devalues the yuan. But what's behind these currency fluctuations? This forex podcast is all about the global currency market. Our three financial market analysts, who are also top Bloomberg forecasters, discuss macro-economic news and its effect on the global financial market - providing you with insights to make informed decisions. *The information contained in this podcast does not constitute a recommendation from any Ebury entity to the recipient.

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60 recent

November 5, 202616 min

US Midterms Special: A historic blue wave sweeps Congress

Democrats have swept to a historic win in the US midterms, taking control of Congress in a result that was widely expected but still surprised many with its scale. The dollar sold off modestly on the news, while Treasury yields barely moved. But is this a game changer for markets? And what does a Democratic Congress actually change? With Trump’s executive powers still intact, are we heading for more continuity? What does it mean for fiscal policy, the deficit and the Treasury market? And do the midterms move the needle on Fed rate expectations, or is it all about the data? We also discuss whether political gridlock helps or hurts the dollar, and what businesses with currency exposure should be thinking about right now. Tune in to find out. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

September 23, 202628 min

Fed turns hawkish - who needs forward guidance anyway?

The world’s major central banks all turned hawkish in September. The Fed delivered a widely expected hike, while hinting that it wasn’t done just yet. ECB “sources” also pointed to another rate increase in the Euro Area later in the year, while the Bank of England suggested that it could follow suit should the energy crisis continue to rumble on for much longer. What do our analysts make of these hawkish pivots, and are they really justified? We also talk forward guidance. Is central bank signalling actually a good thing, or unnecessary? Does Kevin Warsh have a point after all? Tune in to find out. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

September 9, 202625 min

Warsh turns hawkish, yields surge: so long, summer lull

Following a brief summer hiatus, FX Talk is back! FX volatility trickled lower throughout August, but the typically quiet summer period was not without its share of intrigue. The dollar was hammered by the Treasury's debt buyback announcement, Kevin Warsh struck a notably hawkish note at Jackson Hole, and bond yields surged globally amid mounting fears over rising government debt and stickier inflation. We look ahead to what promises to be a blockbuster few weeks in markets. Will the Federal Reserve pull the trigger on a rate hike at its meeting next week? What are the broader implications of the sell-off in debt markets worldwide? And is the yen finally primed for a sustained reversal? Tune in to find out. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

July 16, 202625 min

Iran deal off? What it means for the Fed

US-Iran peace talks have run into further trouble after President Trump declared the framework peace deal to be “over”. The ceasefire has collapsed and oil prices have jumped by around 20% so far this month. Yet the US CPI report for June surprised to the downside, suggesting that the spike in energy prices was not having the broad inflationary implications that had been previously feared. Where does that leave the Federal Reserve? We also turn our attention to the Japanese yen, which is trading around the levels that have previously triggered FX intervention from Japanese authorities. Will this be enough to prop up the yen? Or is there fresh downside in store? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

June 25, 202626 min

Keir out, Burnham in - what happens to the pound?

Britain is set for its fifth prime minister in four years following the resignation of Keir Starmer. With Andy Burnham destined to land the top job in Downing Street, we discuss what impact the new leader could have on the pound and gilt markets. The dollar, meanwhile, has surged higher since the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting, the first since the appointment for Kevin Warsh as the new FOMC chair. What do our analysts make of the hawkish announcement? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

June 4, 202624 min

Iran war fatigue and the Burnham wildcard

Despite some encouraging signs of progress, the Iran war continues to drag on without a clear end in sight. Investors are exhibiting an element of headline fatigue, as the sort of headlines that would have previously been greeted with wild gyrations in markets are now being either roundly ignored or treated with caution. EUR/USD has subsequently traded within a tight range - we discuss what could trigger a breakout. This month is also a big month in the UK. The Bank of England looks set to hold policy steady, but the real focus will be on the Makerfield by-election. A victory for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could clear his path to Number 10. But what does this mean for the pound and gilts? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

May 6, 202629 min

Hold, hold, hold. But for how long?

The era of central bank consensus appears to be over. In this episode of FX Talk , we dive into a hectic week of monetary policy decisions that saw the "Big Three" hold rates steady while revealing deep internal fractures. We start with the Federal Reserve, where an 8-4 split marks the most divided FOMC in decades. As Kevin Warsh prepares to take center stage, we analyse whether his tenure will prioritise balance sheet action over traditional rate hikes. Across the pond, the ECB finds itself in a stagflationary trap; caught between a June hike and the economic fallout of the conflict in Iran. Finally, we look at the Bank of England, where a high-profile dissent from Chief Economist Huw Pill suggests the UK may soon hike rates to combat stubborn inflationary pressures. As the transatlantic policy gap widens, the roadmap for FX volatility in 2026 is being rewritten . Join us as we decode the dissent and what it means for your global exposure! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

April 9, 202624 min

Markets cheer US-Iran ceasefire (the dollar, not so much)

Markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief following the news of an eleventh hour ceasefire between the US and Iran. But is this the beginning of a genuine off-ramp, or just a brief intermission before the next act? In this week's episode, we dig into what the ceasefire actually means for markets: will the US dollar sell-off continue? Does the move lower in oil prices have more room to run? How could the news impact global growth and inflation? And what could it mean for central bank rates? Have a listen to find out our thoughts on these and more! We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

March 11, 202627 min

Iran war fallout and the UK’s inflation problem (with Simon French)

SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We are delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Simon French - Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and regular columnist at The Times. On today’s episode, we unpack the implications of the ongoing war in Iran. How could the volatility in global oil prices impact inflation, and how might central banks around the world respond to the shock? Simon also discusses the deeper inflationary and growth problem in the UK associated with a rationing of factors of production. What policies are exacerbating Britain’s inflation problem? Why are rising global energy prices hitting the UK harder than its peers? And what can be done to address the issue? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

February 25, 2026Episode 2320 min

Supreme Court shoots down Trump’s tariffs - what’s next?

Global trade has been thrown into fresh chaos following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, which deemed President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs to be illegal. The reaction in financial markets has been relatively calm so far, as not only were investors prepared for the verdict, but they fully expected the president to pursue alternative methods to achieve his trade objectives. The future of ECB President Lagarde has also been thrown in doubt following a FT report released last week, which suggested that she could be considering leaving her post before the end of her term. Meanwhile, sterling has faced headwinds from UK political uncertainty and rising expectations that the Bank of England will slash rates again at its next meeting in March. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!