
RRI: the decline of department stores, creative destruction & Anthropic IPO
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver joins host Marius Mariton to discuss the pressures facing Australian businesses, the impact of AI on jobs, and the outlook for global markets. The conversation begins with the voluntary administration of David Jones, which Oliver describes as part of a longer-term decline in department stores as they struggle with online competition, high rents and changing consumer habits. They also examine recent job cuts at Canva and Qantas, and whether more redundancies could follow. While Oliver says AI will eventually displace workers, he argues that the current slowdown in the economy is a more immediate concern. Drawing on the history of technological change, he explains how creative destruction can eliminate some jobs while creating opportunities elsewhere. The discussion then turns to oil prices, US inflation and the Federal Reserve. Oliver sees a risk of further volatility in oil markets, particularly if tensions involving Iran escalate again, despite signs that the worst may have passed. He also considers why US sharemarkets have remained resilient through geopolitical and trade shocks, pointing to strong corporate earnings and more moderate valuations than during the dot-com boom. However, hotter-than-expected US inflation could prompt further rate hikes, with markets increasingly pricing in additional tightening. Mariton and Oliver also look ahead to Anthropic's anticipated IPO. Oliver urges caution, noting that IPO enthusiasm can fade after listing and that AI companies face intense competition, even if the technology delivers substantial productivity gains. Finally, they examine China's record trade surplus of more than US$1 trillion and what it means for global trade tensions. Oliver says strong exports have helped sustain China's economic growth, but weak domestic consumption makes the model difficult to maintain. He argues that China needs to rebalance towards household spending, or risk provoking further tariffs and trade restrictions from the US and Europe. The episode also touches on the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, and the economic data to watch from China.












