Eurizon SLJ Capital

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235

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Jun 2026

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EN-US

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Providing first-hand emerging and developed market insights with a global context of how the world views these markets.

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June 12, 2026Episode 198 min

Week Ahead: UK CPI, Global Central Banks and the First FOMC Under Kevin Warsh

Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a busy macro week, led by the UK, where markets face a heavy run of data, a Bank of England decision, and a politically sensitive by-election.In the UK, they discuss the backdrop after a negative April GDP print and a cabinet resignation, before looking ahead to the Makerfield by-election, May CPI, employment data, retail sales and the BoE meeting. Neil outlines why the bar for further rate hikes remains high, even if additional MPC dissent is possible, and why rates may still be biased lower by year-end.They also assess a packed global central bank calendar, including the ECB’s 25bp hike to 2.25%, higher inflation forecasts, lower growth projections, the RBA’s likely hold, and the Bank of Japan’s potential move to 1% amid yen weakness. The discussion also covers China’s May data and policy decisions in Chile, Russia and Indonesia.In the US, attention turns to retail sales, Iran-related headlines, the SpaceX IPO and a closely watched FOMC meeting, the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, where changes to communication and projections could prove as important as the rate decision itself.The episode closes with Neil’s weekend watchlist, including cricket, Formula 1, tennis and the FIFA World Cup, before the team reveal what they are long and short heading into the weekend.Chapters00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:29 UK week ahead 01:51 Bank of England outlook 02:44 Global central banks 04:40 US Fed, data and markets 06:22 Weekend watchlist 07:06 Long and short picks 07:31 Closing and disclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

May 22, 2026Episode 188 min

Central Banks Face the Growth Test

Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a holiday-shortened week shaped by geopolitics, energy risks, and shifting central bank reaction functions.In the UK, weaker labour, inflation, retail sales, and PMI data have pushed growth fragility back into focus, while the RBA signals a pause and the ECB faces a more acute policy dilemma. Neil also looks ahead to key data from Europe, Japan, and the US, including core PCE, revised Q1 GDP, and consumer confidence, with Strait of Hormuz risks still capable of driving oil and broader market volatility.Chapters00:00 Show Intro 00:29 UK and RBA Outlook 02:42 Global Data Watch 04:31 US Markets and Geopolitics 06:07 Long Weekend Sports Picks 06:48 Long and Short Trades 07:19 Wrap-Up and DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

May 15, 2026Episode 178 min

Political Volatility, Higher Yields, and the Global Growth Test

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macro themes shaping the week ahead.This week’s episode focuses on rising UK political volatility, its impact on the UK yield curve, and the implications of high debt, elevated deficits, and limited fiscal headroom. Neil also looks at why stronger recent growth data may need to be treated with caution, as seasonality, higher oil prices, and rising yields create a more complicated backdrop for Q2 and Q3.Globally, attention turns to whether the Trump-Xi meeting represents genuine progress or simply a stabilisation of relations. Neil discusses the market reaction to comments on the Strait of Hormuz, the potential implications for oil and yields, and the data points to watch across China, Australia, Japan, and emerging markets.In the US, hotter CPI and PPI data, resilient activity, and growing market divergence keep the focus on the FOMC minutes, NVIDIA earnings, and developments around Iran.Finally, Matt and Neil look ahead to a packed sporting weekend, including football, golf, and the Women’s Six Nations Grand Slam decider.Chapters00:00 Show intro 00:29 UK politics and data 02:11 Global macro watchlist 04:22 US inflation and the Fed 06:09 Weekend sports picks 06:49 Long and short calls 07:23 Wrap-up and disclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

May 8, 2026Episode 168 min

Growth, Inflation and the Global K-Shaped Recovery

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macroeconomic themes shaping the week ahead for professional investors.This week’s conversation covers UK political volatility following the local elections, the fiscal implications for gilt markets, and the outlook for UK assets as markets await Q1 GDP. Neil explains why Eurizon SLJ remains less optimistic than the market on UK growth, and why Bank of England rate cuts in 2026 may remain on the table.The discussion also turns to the global macro backdrop, where a potential US-Iran off-ramp has helped reduce the energy risk premium and supported market sentiment. However, Neil highlights a widening pattern of regional and sectoral differentiation, with Korea, Taiwan and the US benefiting from the AI semiconductor and memory CapEx cycle, while Europe remains more exposed to the energy shock.Looking ahead, key data and events include Eurozone sentiment indicators, Australia confidence data after the RBA’s latest rate hike, China CPI and PPI, the Trump-Xi meeting, and a major week of US data including payrolls, CPI, retail sales and Empire Manufacturing.Neil also shares his long and short calls for the week: long the hope of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and short the hope of a near-term UK economic recovery.For professional investors only.Chapter markers00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:29 UK politics and gilt market implications 01:17 The oil shock, UK GDP and Bank of England policy 02:20 Global markets and the return of differentiation 03:18 Eurozone, Australia and China watchlist 04:33 US data, inflation and Fed focus 06:18 Weekend sports watchlist 07:15 Long and short calls 07:40 Wrap-up and disclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

May 1, 2026Episode 159 min

Central Banks Face the Oil Test

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to preview the macro themes shaping the week ahead.This episode focuses on how persistent oil-price shocks could affect global monetary policy. Neil discusses the Bank of England’s warning that higher oil prices may imply a tighter policy path, the underlying weakness in the UK economy, and the added market uncertainty around local elections.The conversation also covers the Bank of Japan, yen weakness and MOF intervention, the ECB’s rate-hike outlook, and the key US data to watch, including non-farm payrolls, JOLTS, ADP and ISM. With the Fed on hold, oil, inflation risks and demand trends remain central to the policy outlook.To close, Matt and Neil look ahead to the UK bank holiday weekend, including football, the Snooker World Championship, Formula One’s return at the Miami Grand Prix, and Charles Leclerc’s reported golfing masterclass from Rickie Fowler before getting back to a different kind of driving.Key topics: Bank of England, oil prices, ECB, Bank of Japan, Fed, US payrolls, yen intervention, ISM, AI CapEx, Formula One.Chapters: 00:00 Welcome and introductions 00:29 UK week ahead 02:24 Global central banks 04:26 US payroll week 06:30 Bank holiday banter 07:31 Long and short picks 07:57 Wrap-up and disclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

April 24, 2026Episode 149 min

Five Years On: Central Banks, Oil Shocks, and the Week Ahead

This week marks the fifth anniversary of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead.In this milestone episode, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss a busy week for global macro markets, with central banks, inflation, oil prices, and political uncertainty all in focus.Neil looks at the UK after a volatile week for politics and data, assessing what recent inflation, labour market, and retail sales figures could mean for the Bank of England. He then turns to a packed global central bank calendar, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, ECB, and Fed, where markets will be watching closely for signals on the balance between inflation risks and growth concerns.The discussion also covers the US macro outlook, the final stages of Jerome Powell’s tenure at the Fed, key data releases, major technology earnings, and the wider implications of the oil shock for the global economy.Finally, Matt and Neil look ahead to the weekend, including the London Marathon, the Women’s Six Nations, the Premier League relegation battle, and this week’s long and short.Key topics covered The fifth anniversary of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead UK inflation, retail sales, unemployment, and political volatility What to expect from the Bank of England Global central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan, ECB, Bank of Canada, and Fed The impact of higher oil prices on inflation and growth US consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, and ISM manufacturing Major technology earnings from Google, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Apple The London Marathon, Women’s Six Nations, and Premier League footballThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

April 17, 2026Episode 138 min

The Oil Shock and the Global Policy Response

In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macro themes shaping markets in the days ahead.They begin with the UK, where weaker growth forecasts, fiscal pressure, and stagflation concerns continue to weigh on the outlook. From there, the conversation turns to Europe, where the debate centres on how policymakers should respond to the energy shock and what that could mean for ECB rate expectations.Neil also looks across the global landscape, highlighting upcoming PMI data, German sentiment surveys, and central bank decisions from several major emerging markets. In the US, attention shifts to retail sales, earnings season, and the confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, which could prove important for market expectations around rates, risk assets, and the dollar.The episode closes, as ever, with a lighter look at the sporting weekend ahead.In this episode: Why the UK outlook remains under pressure What the energy shock means for Europe and ECB pricing The global importance of flash PMIs and central bank decisions Why next week’s US policy focus may matter more than the data Neil’s long and short for the weekend ahead Recorded for professional investors. Views were accurate at the time of recording.The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

March 20, 2026Episode 129 min

Holding the Line: Inflation Risks, Weak Growth, and the Policy Dilemma

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead after a volatile week for central banks and markets amid uncertainty around the Iran situation. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates, struck a more hawkish tone with a 9–0 vote, and stressed inflation risks from elevated energy prices, though growth vulnerability and rising unemployment risks keep a high bar for hikes and support an ultimately needed, delayed rate-cut path; upcoming UK CPI and retail sales are key. Globally, the ECB, SNB, Riksbank, and Bank of Canada also held rates while balancing upside inflation and downside growth risks; the Bank of Japan stayed on a hawkish path; and the RBA hiked to 4.1%. Next week features global flash PMIs, Aussie CPI, German IFO, and ECB commentary. In the US, the Fed held rates with mildly dovish projections but a hawkish press conference; attention turns to Trump, risk assets, oil, Treasuries, and eased big-bank capital requirements.00:00 Show Intro00:27 UK Outlook BoE02:36 Global Central Banks04:32 Week Ahead Data05:23 US After FOMC07:28 Weekend Sports Talk08:15 Long And Short Picks08:30 Wrap Up And DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

March 13, 2026Episode 1110 min

From the Bank of England to the Fed: Policy Under Pressure

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a complex global macro backdrop dominated by the Iran conflict’s impact on oil, inflation expectations, yields, equities, and growth, with market focus shifting to a heavy week of central bank meetings. In the UK, weak sales, house prices, and a softer January GDP print reinforce growth concerns; despite markets repricing toward possible Bank of England hikes, Staines sees a high bar given weakening growth and reduced fiscal space, though statement language will be closely parsed. Elsewhere, the RBA is expected to bring forward a 25bp hike, while the Bank of Canada, SNB, Riksbank, and ECB are broadly expected to hold rates amid differing inflation and growth dynamics. The Fed is seen as most consequential, with unchanged rates expected but close attention on updated projections and dots amid a weaker revised Q4 GDP and ongoing geopolitical risks.00:00 Welcome and Setup00:27 UK Outlook and BoE Watch02:24 Global Central Bank Roundup05:19 Fed Focus and US Data07:19 Weekend Watchlist Sports08:32 Long and Short Picks08:52 Wrap Up and DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

March 6, 2026Episode 109 min

Forecasts and Fragility: UK Spring Statement, US CPI, and China’s Growth Tolerance

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead against major uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, noting it is likely to dominate sentiment and positioning while they limit forecasts to the macroeconomy. In the UK, the Spring Statement brought no policy change but updated OBR projections: 2026 growth cut to 1.1% (from 1.4%), peak unemployment lifted to 5.3% (from 4.9%), and inflation lowered to 2.3%. The fiscal outlook also improved via higher projected revenues and lower debt funding costs due to a lower yield curve, though they remain skeptical given January tax effects and the sensitivity of public finances to moves in rates following developments around Iran. January UK GDP is the key domestic release. Globally, with the BoE and ECB entering blackout periods ahead of meetings on the 19th (and the FOMC ahead of the 18th), focus includes Eurozone investor confidence and industrial production, Isabel Schnabel’s remarks, China’s CPI/PPI amid limited domestic-demand messaging from Two Sessions, and inflation releases across several EMs alongside Hungary minutes and a Turkey rate decision. In the US, February CPI, the trade balance, PCE, and JOLTS are key, with oil’s impact on inflation and expectations central.00:00 Show Intro00:27 Middle East Backdrop01:12 UK Spring Statement02:27 UK GDP Watch02:50 Global Data Radar03:14 Europe And Energy03:41 China Inflation Focus04:48 US CPI And Oil06:41 Weekend Sports Picks07:29 Long And Short Signoff07:57 Closing DisclosuresThe opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.