Stuck in the Middle: The Mid-Transition Crisis & the Energy System's Awkward Middle Age | With Emily Grubert
Decarbonization usually means addition: more wind, solar, EVs. But a real transition also means taking something away.We talk about decarbonization like it's a shopping list: more wind, more solar, more EVs, stacked on top of whatever's already running. But a real transition means something also has to come off the list. Fossil systems have to shrink at the same time clean systems grow, and for a good stretch in the middle, both have to serve the same demand at once. Neither one can do the job alone, and each ends up constraining the other.Civil engineer and environmental sociologist Emily Grubert (University of Notre Dame) calls this overlap the mid-transition, and it's the subject of a paper she co-wrote with Sara. Ed sits down with both of them to work through what the concept actually means once you get past the label.Some of what's in this one:Why refineries and coal plants can't just wind down smoothly to zero, and where the "minimum viable scale" wall actually sitsWhat Alberta's coal phase-out got right, what it missed, and why the coal companies got compensated a lot faster than the communities didWhether the oil sands could shrink one asset at a time, or whether losing one piece, a pipeline, an upgrader, takes more of the system down with itThe uncomfortable question at the centre of it all: is a slow, managed phase-out actually the safer path, or just a longer runway for incumbents to extract concessions on the way out.0:00 Intro0:35 Cold Open2:00 What Is the Mid-Transition?4:36 The 80/20 Rule: Are We Already In It?5:55 Decarbonization Means Subtraction Too8:50 What Each System Forces on the Other12:38 Refineries and the Limits of Ramping Down15:46 Alberta's Coal Phase-Out, Explained20:52 Managing Coal Decline in the US24:11 Fast Payouts for Companies, Slow Support for Communities27:58 Can the Oil Sands Shrink Smoothly?35:13 Long Mid-Transition or Short? The Band-Aid QuestionSend us a text (if you'd like a response, please include your email)Follow us on:LinkedInBlueskyX/TwitterInstagramEnergy vs Climate relies on the support of our generous listenersDonate to keep Energy vs Climate goingProduced by Bespoke Podcasts