
Oil, War and the Rupee: Vijay GOKHALE on What Global Turmoil Means for India
Welcome to the Energizing India Podcast. Today, we have the privilege of welcoming back to the podcast for a third time one of India’s sharpest strategic minds — former Foreign Secretary of India. Vijay served as India’s 32nd Foreign Secretary after a distinguished 39-year career in the Indian Foreign Service. He has served as India’s Ambassador to China and Germany, as well as the High Commissioner to Malaysia, and worked extensively on China and East Asia policy throughout his career. He is widely regarded as one of India’s most experienced China watchers and is currently a Non-Resident Fellow at. He has also authored five books on geopolitics. His latest,, which explores the politics and diplomacy behind China’s military coercion, was released earlier this month. We meet him at a time when the world feels increasingly unstable. The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has already shaken assumptions around oil, gas, fertilizers, shipping, currencies, and global investment flows. India, which imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil and a significant portion of its gas needs, is exposed not only to price shocks but also to supply disruptions, inflationary pressures from currency fluctuations, and delays in major projects. Recent reporting has already linked the conflict and disruptions in energy markets to renewed pressure on the rupee. There is also a deeper strategic question now emerging. India has historically maintained a relationship with Iran. It has built close ties with Israel. India also depends heavily on the Gulf, while continuing to strengthen its partnership with the United States. This makes the current moment especially sensitive for Indian diplomacy. At the same time, Pakistan appears to be positioning itself as a potential mediator between Washington and Tehran, with China closely watching and encouraging Islamabad’s diplomatic role. So the question for India is no longer just: how do we manage this crisis? It is: how does India protect its energy security, economic growth, strategic autonomy, and global influence in a world where the old certainties are beginning to break down? Vijay Gokhale, welcome to the program.













