Economics Explored

Hosted by Gene Tunny

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Jun 2026

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Hard-headed economic analysis applied to important economic, social, and environmental issues.

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June 13, 202646 min

Taxing Capital More in a Productivity Slump? Perverse Policy in Australia

Australia has endured nearly a decade of weak productivity growth, and living standards are under pressure. In this episode, Gene Tunny and John Humphreys explore the common thread connecting several major economic debates: investment and incentives. They discuss Australia's productivity slump, the Federal Government’s proposed capital gains tax changes, Brisbane’s Olympics infrastructure plans, and the challenges facing the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). Along the way, they explain why economists place so much emphasis on incentives and what current policy settings could mean for Australia's future prosperity. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. What You’ll Learn from This Episode Why productivity growth is the ultimate driver of long-run living standards. How savings, investment and innovation contribute to economic prosperity. The economic arguments for taxing capital gains differently from labour income. Whether Brisbane’s Olympic infrastructure spending is likely to address existing bottlenecks. Why economists place so much importance on incentives when designing public policy. Timestamps Introduction to episode on Capital Gains Tax policy change and Productivity Slump (0:00) Economic Performance and Productivity (4:55) Capital Gains Tax Proposals (14:24) Economic Theory and Capital Taxation (24:28) Olympics Infrastructure and Public Investment (29:37) National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) (38:22) Investment and Incentives in Government Programs (44:12) Links relevant to the conversation Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 11 June, “Tax blunders & shrinking economy || #45”: https://www.youtube.com/live/K1Fsnjeg3mM?si=jKrxraJJlT0DzLfd Richard Holden’s opinion piece “There is no economic case for taxing work and investment the same” (paywalled): https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/there-is-no-economic-case-for-taxing-work-and-investment-the-same-20260528-p601ke Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

April 25, 202656 min

Debt and Deficits: Have We Lost Discipline? w/ Sinclair Davidson & John Humphreys

Debt and deficits used to be political dealbreakers. So why don’t they seem to matter anymore? In this episode, Gene Tunny explores the concept of fiscal illusion with John Humphreys and Professor Sinclair Davidson. They examine whether Australia is “sleepwalking” into a more precarious fiscal position, and what could happen if a crisis hits. A thought-provoking discussion on debt, accountability, and economic literacy. Sinclair Davidson is Professor of Institutional Economics in the School of Economics, Finance and Marketing at RMIT University. John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. Takeaways Governments use various budget measures that can obscure the true fiscal position (“fiscal illusion”). Off-budget spending and government “investments” may not appear in key budget figures, even when they worsen debt. Growth in national debt may be the clearest indicator of underlying fiscal reality. Public attitudes toward debt and deficits have softened, reducing political pressure for fiscal discipline. Debt may not be an immediate crisis, but it represents a slow-burning risk that could become serious over time. Timestamps Public Debt and Its Implications (0:00) Off-Budget Spending and Fiscal Risks (4:17) Complexities of Budget Reporting (6:29) State Debt and Federalism (12:17) NDIS and Government Spending (42:50) Economic Literacy and Public Perception (54:40) Alternative Solutions and Policy Reforms (56:46) Links relevant to the conversation Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 23 April, “New Taxes and Rising Debt”: https://www.youtube.com/live/6sc7wU8vKpo?si=QG4tmu8ntyb6dspL Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

April 17, 202639 min

Have We Gone Too Far on Free Trade?

Free trade has long been a cornerstone of economic thinking, but is it still fit for purpose in a more dangerous and uncertain world? Gene Tunny is joined by Dan Ryan and John Humphreys to debate tariffs, industrial policy, and economic resilience. They explore whether Australia has gone too far in opening its economy, the risks of fragile global supply chains, and the perceived trade-offs between efficiency and national security. Dan Ryan is Executive Director of the National Conservative Institute of Australia, and John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. Takeaways Free trade generally boosts living standards but may also introduce vulnerabilities in a geopolitically unstable world. Tariffs can protect domestic industries, but they also raise prices and risk economic inefficiency. Supply chain resilience is emerging as a key policy concern, alongside cost efficiency. Deindustrialisation is driven not just by trade, but also by automation and energy costs. There may be a middle ground: limited, targeted trade restrictions for national security rather than broad protectionism. Timestamps 00:00 – Introduction: Free trade under pressure 02:45 – Why Australia lost refining capacity 03:40 – Supply chains and geopolitical risk 05:40 – What does “cheapest” really mean? 07:30 – Do tariffs encourage local production? 10:35 – Automation vs trade in deindustrialisation 13:05 – Energy costs and competitiveness 15:15 – Is reindustrialisation realistic? 18:15 – What tariffs would actually look like 20:30 – Dan’s case for a 10% tariff baseline 22:15 – Can tariffs replace income taxes? 25:10 – Historical tariffs in Australia 27:30 – Are tariffs just another tax? 28:25 – Would tariffs really bring jobs back? 30:50 – Technology vs trade: what matters more? 33:15 – Tariffs, revenue, and economic trade-offs 36:00 – Final reflections: trade vs national security Links relevant to the conversation Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 16 April: https://www.youtube.com/live/fyukScFysDs?si=FwDjygolodDUQVRz Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

April 11, 202625 min

Housing Crisis: Supply, Demand, or Both? w/ John Humphreys and Tom Switzer

What happens when geopolitical tensions collide with domestic economic pressures? In this episode, Gene Tunny is joined by John Humphreys and Tom Switzer to unpack the economic fallout from escalating tensions with Iran. The conversation then turns to Australia’s housing affordability crisis—examining whether government policies, population growth, or supply constraints are to blame. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. Takeaways Housing affordability remains a major challenge in many advanced economies, with strong demand outpacing limited supply. Policies like Australia's 5% deposit scheme can boost prices by increasing demand in an already constrained market. Both supply and demand matter—increasing construction and managing population growth are key levers. International examples (such as Canada) suggest that policy changes can influence housing outcomes. Timestamps Iran Nuclear Tensions and Market Reactions (0:00) Impact of the 5% Deposit Scheme on Housing Affordability (6:02) Supply and Demand Dynamics in Housing (7:51) Proposed Solutions and Policy Reforms (14:50) Long-term Factors Contributing to Housing Affordability (18:55) Final Thoughts and Call to Action (24:08) Links relevant to the conversation Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 9 April: https://www.youtube.com/live/hoRKqJhBhUQ?si=_1uHKUG6zCO7vBP1 Tom Switzer’s show, Switzerland: https://www.youtube.com/@TomSwitzerMedia Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

March 27, 202653 min

Fuel, Fertiliser, and Fear Down Under - ep314

Are fears of fuel shortages in Australia overblown—or are we underestimating the risks? Gene Tunny is joined by Dr John Humphreys and farmer Peter Rothwell to explore how rising diesel prices, fertiliser shortages, and supply chain stress could ripple through the economy. From supermarket prices to farm viability, this episode breaks down how a global energy shock could hit households and businesses—and whether markets can cope. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. About the Guests Dr John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance and an experienced economist with a background spanning academia, government, consulting and think tanks, including roles at the Australian Treasury, the Centre for International Economics and the Centre for Independent Studies. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Queensland, where he has lectured in advanced microeconomics, and has also taught in Cambodia, where he founded an education charity and research institute. John is the founder of the Australian Libertarian Society and the Liberal Democrats (Libertarian Party), and has published widely on tax, welfare, public finance and international trade. He was awarded a knighthood in the Cambodian Royal Order of Moniseraphon for his contributions to education. Peter Rothwell is a farmer and former Liberal Democrats candidate based in regional New South Wales. He has contested the federal seat of Parkes, covering much of western NSW including Dubbo and surrounding areas. Peter describes himself as having grown up on the land and as an “old school Liberal,” entering politics out of concern about national economic challenges including high government debt, inflation and rising interest rates. Takeaways Markets help—but aren’t perfect: Prices usually allocate scarce fuel efficiently, but panic buying and logistics can still create short-term shortages. Diesel is critical infrastructure: It powers transport, farming, mining, and supply chains—making it far more economically important than petrol. Energy shocks are stagflationary: Higher fuel prices raise costs and reduce economic activity at the same time. Agriculture is highly exposed: Fertiliser shortages and higher diesel costs could reduce yields and farm profitability. Policy trade-offs are tough: Governments face difficult choices on fuel taxes, spending, and how to respond to a supply-side shock. Timestamps 0:00 – Intro: fuel shock fears and “Mad Max” scenarios 2:40 – Oil prices surge and diesel costs spike 9:00 – Are we underestimating the risks? 12:50 – Fertiliser shortages and farming realities 25:00 – Food supply vs distribution challenges 29:00 – Why diesel is the critical constraint 41:50 – Fuel excise debate and policy responses 52:50 – Final reflections and listener call-out Links relevant to the conversation ATA livestream “Real situation in rural Australia”: https://www.youtube.com/live/MczcHEBXXIY?si=cLVJ3EWjserUeXNU Charts that Gene talks about: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1siZwkNV7QLF1PXdeg6mZJt_uomZuRpZN/view?usp=sharing Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

March 14, 202655 min

AI, Jobs, and the Value of Ideas w/ Benjamin Shiller, Brandeis University

AI can write essays, generate code, and assist with research, but does that mean it will replace human workers? Economist Benjamin Shiller, author of AI Economics, joins show host Gene to discuss how AI may instead make human creativity and ideas even more valuable. In this conversation with Gene Tunny, they explore AI’s potential impact on jobs, productivity growth, education, and inequality, as well as the risks the technology could pose. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. About this episode’s guest: Benjamin Shiller Benjamin Shiller is an Associate Professor of Economics at Brandeis University. His research on personalized pricing, ad-blocking, and technological change has been published in leading journals and covered in The Atlantic, The Economist, Forbes, Fortune, The Guardian, and The Washington Post. Takeaways AI may increase the value of human ideas. Benjamin Shiller argues that while AI is excellent at turning ideas into polished text or code, it still struggles to generate genuinely original ideas. That means creativity, judgment, and insight may become more valuable in the AI age. Workers who know how to use AI will have an advantage. Rather than fully replacing professionals, AI may function as a “co-pilot.” Graduates who can effectively use AI tools — prompting them, checking outputs, and integrating them into workflows — could be in strong demand. AI could dramatically improve education through personalised tutoring. Shiller highlights Bloom’s two-sigma problem, which shows that personalised tutoring can dramatically improve student outcomes. AI tutors could provide personalised learning at scale, potentially transforming education systems. Productivity gains from AI may take time to appear. Like earlier technologies such as electricity or computers, AI may require years before its benefits show up in productivity statistics as businesses learn how to integrate it effectively. 5. AI brings serious risks alongside its benefits. While AI could boost productivity and living standards, Shiller warns about potential downsides — including labour market disruption, social isolation from AI companionship, and the possibility of automated AI-driven warfare. Timestamps 00:00 – Introduction 03:08 – Using AI to write a book 06:11 – The explosion of AI-generated content 15:11 – AI, jobs, and the labour market 21:23 – Can AI automate research? 25:57 – AI blind spots and the “kangaroo problem” 31:29 – Bloom’s two-sigma problem and AI tutors 37:42 – Will AI boost productivity? 42:30 – Inequality, regulation, and AI risks 49:19 – AI and the dangers of automated warfare 53:34 – Key takeaways and closing Links relevant to the conversation Benjamin Shiller’s website: https://benjaminshiller.com/ AI Economics: How Technology Transforms Jobs, Markets, Life, & Our Future: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G45MKBZT Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

March 7, 202639 min

Why Productivity Matters for Living Standards | Australia’s Productivity Problem

Australia’s productivity growth has slowed to its weakest rate in decades — and that matters because productivity ultimately drives rising living standards. In this episode, Gene Tunny explores why productivity is so central to higher wages, economic growth, and sustainable prosperity. The episode features insights from Danielle Wood, Chair of the Productivity Commission, on why policymakers need a “growth mindset,” followed by highlights from a lively roundtable discussion on the policies shaping productivity in Australia — including energy costs, taxation, regulation, and government spending. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. What You’ll Learn Why productivity growth drives living standards over the long run. How productivity sets the economy’s “speed limit” for non-inflationary growth. Why wages growing faster than productivity can lead to inflation and unemployment. How policy settings — including taxes, regulation, and energy costs — influence productivity. Why innovation, investment, and entrepreneurship are essential to productivity growth. Timestamps Australia's Productivity Growth and Its Impact on Living Standards (0:00) Introduction of Danielle Wood and Her Views on Productivity (3:02) Discussion on Productivity and Its Practical Implications (9:15) Energy Costs and Their Impact on Productivity (17:27) Tax Reforms and Their Potential to Boost Productivity (24:34) Conclusion and Key Takeaways (35:24) Links relevant to the conversation Markets & Motives Ep. 1 – Dr Danielle Wood with Isabella Sciacca: https://youtu.be/L0BP_pGbHuQ?si=aA914CAhw4iZ8_to Beyond the Roundtable: Real Solutions for Australia’s Productivity Plunge - ep295: https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/beyond-the-roundtable-real-solutions-for-australias-productivity-plunge-ep295 Damian Coory’s The Other Side: https://www.youtube.com/@OtherSideAus The Whitlam Era book, published by Connor Court: https://www.amazon.com.au/WHITLAM-ERA-REAPPRAISAL-GOVERNMENT-POLITICS/dp/1925826945 Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

March 1, 202630 min

Argentina’s Radical Economic Turnaround

Argentina was on the brink: inflation near 300% a year, real wages collapsing, poverty rising, and a large fiscal deficit. Voters elected libertarian economist Javier Milei, who promised deep spending cuts and radical reform. Many predicted a disaster. Two years on, inflation has fallen sharply, and real wages are projected to rise. In this episode, show host Gene Tunny chats with John Humphreys (Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance Chief Economist) and Michael Arbon (adviser to Senator Ralph Babet) on how disinflation works, why fiscal credibility matters, and what Argentina’s experience could mean for Australia — particularly on energy policy and political risk. Gene also briefly touches on developments in the Iran war and their potential global economic implications. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. What You’ll Learn How credible fiscal and monetary reform can rapidly reduce inflation. Why cutting government spending doesn’t automatically cause a recession. What economists mean by a “political risk premium.” How uncertainty about future policy affects investment decisions. Why major reform often involves short-term pain — and political risk. Timestamps Global Economic Uncertainty and Iran Conflict (0:00) Economic Implications of Higher Energy Prices (2:06) Argentina's Economic Crisis and Reforms (3:56) John Humphreys on Argentina's Economic Reforms (6:33) Lessons from Argentina's Reforms (7:40) Political Risk and Investment in Argentina (22:11) Potential Application of Argentina's Reforms in Australia (28:10) Conclusion and Future Prospects (29:31) Links relevant to the conversation John’s Substack post, “What can we learn from Milei's Argentina?”: https://austaxpayers.substack.com/p/what-can-we-learn-from-mileis-argentina Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

February 21, 202650 min

A Pro-Growth Tax Reform Agenda for Australia

What would tax reform look like if the goal were higher wages and stronger long-term growth — rather than more revenue? In this episode, Gene Tunny and John Humphreys examine capital gains tax, bracket creep, and income tax reform through the lens of productivity and living standards. While the discussion focuses on Australia, the principles apply everywhere. How should governments tax capital versus labour? Should tax brackets be indexed to inflation? And how can tax systems encourage saving, investment, and innovation? This episode explores the economic ideas behind a genuinely pro-growth tax reform agenda. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. What You’ll Learn Why productivity growth—not redistribution—is central to rising real wages and living standards. How capital gains tax works, and why inflation and the time value of money complicate its design. Why economists worry that taxing capital income can discourage investment. How bracket creep quietly increases tax burdens even when real wages aren’t rising. What a pro-growth tax reform agenda looks like. Timestamps Introduction to the Podcast and Episode Theme (0:00) Discussion on Productivity and Tax Reform (2:17) Capital Gains Tax Discussion (7:22) Proposed Tax Reforms and Economic Benefits (19:56) Indexing Tax Brackets to Eliminate Bracket Creep (45:41) Conclusion and Final Thoughts (49:03) Links relevant to the conversation The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestreams that this episode borrows from… Bold tax cut proposal for a new opposition || #32: https://www.youtube.com/live/HYsNOmJ1tKc?si=ZCqtX2f5FWmxDo0C Taxes are going up || #31 https://www.youtube.com/live/UkQWVCo1Qko?si=Cyp-SBtjdYI3nBRp Related ATA newsletter articles: https://austaxpayers.substack.com/p/bold-tax-proposal-for-a-new-opposition https://austaxpayers.substack.com/p/tax-hikes-on-alcohol-and-petrol Lumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED

February 13, 202658 min

What Would Adam Smith Make of Australia? | A C+ Scorecard

Adam Smith is often invoked as the intellectual godfather of modern capitalism — but he was also a moral philosopher. Judo Bank founder and former CEO Joseph Healy joins Gene Tunny to argue that Australia’s market economy has drifted from Smith’s vision. From weak competition and high household debt to corporate scandals and lobbying influence, this episode explores whether capitalism has been “hijacked by capitalists” — and why complacency may be Australia’s greatest economic risk.Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. About this episode’s guest: Joseph HealyJoseph Healy is an experienced Australian banking executive and the author of What Would Adam Smith Make of Modern Australia? He has had a long career in financial services in Australia and internationally, including as a co-founder and former CEO of Judo Bank, a specialist SME bank. Joseph has a longstanding interest in Adam Smith’s work as both an economist and moral philosopher. In his book, he draws on The Wealth of Nations and The Theory of Moral Sentiments to assess the state of modern Australian capitalism — examining competition, corporate governance, banking, regulation, education, and the relationship between economic performance and societal wellbeing.What You’ll LearnWhy Adam Smith must be read as both an economist and a moral philosopher.How shareholder value thinking reshaped corporate incentives from the 1980s onward.Why weak competition in banking, airlines, retail, and energy may be generating economic rents in Australia.How the shift of bank lending toward housing may have created systemic risk and underinvestment in SMEs in Australia.Why Joseph gives Australia a C+ overall — and why that grade could deteriorate.Timestamps02:25 – Why Joseph wrote to The EconomistThe 250th anniversary of The Wealth of Nations and reclaiming Smith’s legacy.09:18 – Why Moral Sentiments still matters“Loved and lovely” — Smith’s moral framework explained.16:30 – The legal test vs the moral test“It’s not ‘Will we get caught?’ — it’s ‘Is this the right thing to do?’”18:29 – Shareholder value and the erosion of restraintHow incentives shifted corporate behaviour from the 1980s onward.27:39 – Banking concentration and the shift to mortgagesBig Four dominance and declining SME lending.31:05 – Systemic risk and household leverageIs Australia too exposed to housing debt?36:10 – Lobbying and barriers to competitionWhy reform is politically difficult.40:45 – Five areas of reformGovernment size, competition, tax reform, governance, trade unions & education.48:34 – The Qantas exampleLobbying, protection, and consumer impact.51:39 – What would Adam Smith make of Australia?The “report card”: A for trade, D for competition, C+ overall.55:11 – Reclaiming capitalism“Capture it back again so it’s working for everybody.”Links relevant to the conversationJoseph’s book, What Would Adam Smith Make of Modern Australia?https://majorstreet.com.au/products/what-would-adam-smith-make-of-modern-australia-br-i-small-by-joseph-healy-i-smallLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED