
PITfalls of the 2026 “Point-In-Time” Count
This article was written by Ruth, who lives on the streets of LA.🆘 Councilwoman Nithya Raman has targeted me for yet another sweep on Monday, 8/3 🚜 Thanks for reading roofless! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.🚐 If you can help move my belongings into a van on Sunday 8/2 after 5pm, I would really appreciate it! 📦 ✍️ Edited by Zachary Ellison, who was displaced by the Eaton Fire. 🔥 On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, January 20th–22nd, five-thousand volunteers put on high-visibility vests and set out to count the unsheltered of the Greater Los Angeles area.To use a pandemic metaphor, the counters were hoping to observe more evidence that the “curve” of homelessness in LA is still “flattening,” like those reductions seen in the 2024 and 2025 counts.Six months after carrying out the 2026 Greater Los Angeles Count of homelessness, also called the Point-In-Time “PIT” count, the results are in.The counters did, in fact, observe a reduction in visible shelters, because the number of vehicles and tents went down for the fourth year in a row.10,761 dwellings were counted.Although the total number of dwellings (tents + vehicles) is slowly but surely decreasing, the number of makeshift shelters, which can include a sleeping bag, shopping cart, umbrella, tarp, or anything else used to survive outdoors, is on the rise.Despite the decline in the number of dwellings counted in the City, unsheltered homelessness increased.In the entire Greater LA “Continuum of Care,” which includes the County and City of LA, but excludes Glendale, Pasadena and Long Beach, 10,483 presumed unsheltered people were counted outside in 2025 and 11,084 were people observed in 2026, a +6% increase.“Multipliers” move goalposts.The dwelling “multiplier” has been increased every year since 2023. In 2025, it was raised to 1.75 from 1.71 in 2024 and in 2023, it was 1.56. The 2026 demographic survey determined that more people are living in each dwelling, so the “multiplier” was increased to 1.86 estimated people per dwelling.The decision to increase the multiplier is allegedly backed up by demographic survey data, which has not been released for 2026. The 2025 demographic survey data and questionnaire are available through Economic Roundtable.More people living in dwellings have been a trend over at least the last four years…Year • Multiplier(estimated number of people per dwelling)2023 • 1.562024 • 1.712025 • 1.752026 • 1.86[Slide 22]In 2019, 2020 and 2022 (2021 was cancelled due to COVID-19), multipliers were calculated for each of the five dwelling types and each of the eight Service Planning Areas, and a separate set of multipliers were calculated to represent members of families living in dwellings, as opposed to individuals. For these years, total of 80 different multipliers were calculated. In 2023, this nuanced technique was replaced by one universal multiplier (1.56 people per dwelling). If one must have an unsheltered neighbor, is it not better that they at least have a tent or vehicle of their own?Un-ShelteringTents and vehicle dwellings are targets for constant removals, such as the 9,800 “Milestone Goals.” Also called the “encampment reduction plan,” these sweeps were secretly ordered by City Council in an illegal amendment to the LA Alliance for Human Rights’ settlement with the City.I wrote about the Alliance and their “Milestone” removal “goals” earlier this month, as I was being removed by City workers myself:During the week of the 2026 PIT Count, I was personally targeted for an encampment removal in Council District 4. Because of this, I almost certainly did not get counted, nor did my neighbors.I am again being removed, for the fifth time this year! LA Family Housing is supposed to be helping me get a voucher while the City repeatedly attempts to sabotage with sweeps this monumental personal progress toward housing.Phoenix Tso at Los Angeles Public Press referred to the modest “uptick” in homelessness as “bad news” and a “regression,” while also drawing a connection to “encampment sweeps.”The 2025 PIT didn’t detect displacement after #LAFires.The 2025 PIT was supposed to occur on January 23–25, 2025, but it was delayed to February 18th–20th because of the Palisades and Eaton fires. Therefore, the 2026 PIT was conducted only eleven months after the 2025 PIT.But how is it possible that after the physical destruction of over 12,000 structures and deaths of two dozen housed people, the 2025 PIT showed a reduction in homelessness? Is our annual counting ritual useless for detecting displacement due to disasters?300 fewer people experiencing homelessness (“PEH”) in LA County died in 2024 compared to 2023, a reduction of nearly one death per day.On paper, numerical reductions look the same whether people exit homelessness to permanent housing or permanent death. County data released in March shows fewer people dying on the streets compared to prior years, for the first time since 2014, which seems worth celebrating.The latest report by the Department of Public Health - Center for Health Impact Evaluation has the freshest data available concerning deaths of people on the streets of Los Angeles County. From Data to Action • Lives Lost: Mortality Trends and Prevention Opportunities For People Experiencing Homelessness in LA County, 2015-2024 was released by “DPH-CHIE” on March 10th.Paris Barraza wrote an article for USA Today covering CHIE’s newest findings on the same day the report was released, noting the remarkable 21% reduction in drug overdose deaths. This is likely the intended consequence of tripling naloxone (Narcan) distribution between 2021 and 2023, as noted in the 2025 press release of the report which contained death data for PEH from 2023.Age• The number of adults (18-54) experiencing homelessness decreased by 1.1%.• The number of older adults (55+) experiencing homelessness increased by 13.5%.Age group • 2025 • 2026Children (0-17 years) • 6,428 • 5,605Adults (18-54 years) • 45,718 • 45,225Older Adults (55+ years) • 15,631 • 17,746[Slide 31]LAHSA’s 2026 PIT press release notes a reduction of homeless children and families, but a 13.5% increase in the number of older adults (55+) experiencing homelessness. While an elderly homeless population is not exactly something for our City to be proud of, if it’s indication that the streets are slightly less deadly, then it’s bittersweet news, especially considering that LA’s unsheltered population was struggling to make it to age 50, even before the onset of the pandemic.Overdoses are declining while vehicular killings of PEH have skyrocketed 248% in a decade.Until March 2027, when the CHIE report containing last years’ deaths is going to be released, the most recent data about mortality among PEH in LA County is from 2024, when a total of 2,208 deaths were recorded, nearly six per day.While it is a shocking statistic, and double what it was before the pandemic, it is still a measured improvement compared to the 2,508, or seven per day, from the prior report containing 2023 deaths, released in March of last year.Who oversees the preparation of PEH death data?Over 2,000 people who died homeless in LA County from January 1st, 2000 to May 28th, 2007 were recorded in a report by the Los Angeles Coalition to End Hunger and Homelessness, Dying without Dignity: Homeless Deaths in Los Angeles County 2000-2007. The names of the deceased make up the last thirteen pages of the 44-page document.Death Data DelaysLos Angeles County’s DPH-CHIE published their first of three “issue briefs” on homeless mortality throughout 2018 in October 2019, when the data was ten months old.But mortality data for PEH in LA County is now lagging by over a year, with the report containing 2024 deaths coming out 15 months after the end of that year. On the other hand, annual PIT data are calculated and ready for public release within a matter of six months.16,197 deaths of PEH in LA in a decade (2015–2024)No public data seems to exist for the period from May 29th, 2007 to December 31st, 2012 and California Public Records Act requests to the LA County Medical Examiner’s office did not produce any additional information.Deaths of PEH in LA County increased to two per day in 2014, and three per day in 2017. Average daily deaths of PEH leapt to five per day in 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.Comparison: 256 PEH died of COVID-19 in LA from 1/1/20-11/1/21DPH-CHIE attributed 179 deaths of PEH in 2020 to the COVID-19 virus, and an additional 44 in 2021, for a total of 223 in 2020-21 combined. A different report by Kuhn Porter of University of California Los Angeles, Benjamin Henwood of University of Southern California and Chang Brosnan from LA County DPH, published by JAMA, Journal of the American Medical Association, found 256 deaths of PEH in LA County due to COVID-19 from January 1st, 2020–November 1st, 2021.COVID-19 doesn’t fully explain why deaths continued to accelerate from five to six per day in 2021 and six to seven per day in 2023.Thankfully, pandemic programs like Project Roomkey gave way to non-congregate hotel shelters, like LA Mayor Karen Bass’ Inside Safe and challenger Nithya Raman’s CD4 Roadmap program at Hollywood’s Highland Gardens hotel. However, without ongoing funding commitments, people end up sitting in hotels for years at a time, at double the cost of housing them.Many “permanent housing exits” are not permanent.Even though housing is cheaper than shelter, it’s also not consistently funded.Lack of funding for Rapid Re-Housing vouchers, also called Time-Limited Subsidies, are the primary reason LAHSA provides for the increase in homelessness in 2026. RRH/TLS are considered “permanent housing” because they pay the majority of market-rate rents on qualified private units for up to two years. Unlike federal Section 8 vouchers, they are not permanent.The story of the Homeless Count is mainly the story of TLS.* A Time-Limited Subsidy (TLS), formerly known as a Rapid Rehousing, is a low-barrier, short-term re subsidy that helps unhoused households quickly move into affordable housing.* Participants are provided rental assistance for 24 months.* TLS pairs rental assistance with housing-focused case management and stabilization services.Goal after 24 months: help participants become housing self-sufficient of transfer them to another permanent housing subsidy that meets their needs.[Slide 7]Loss of TLS funding forced a program pause. TLS is still frozen.* Starting in 2022, TLS was a major factor in the increase of people in permanent housing .* Funding reductions forced a pause on new TLS enrollments.* As a result, the number of new TLS move-ins dropped by. 3,718 in 2025.Data source: HMIS - LAHSA System Key Performance IndicatorsYear • Newly Housed Using TLS2022 • 7,3292023 • 8,2862024 • 10,3082025 • 6,590[Slide 8]The critical shortage of TLS resources and other factors contributed to a 5,093-person drop in the number of people housed in 2025.98,204People Permanently Housed since 20222022 • 21,8492023 • 24,1982024 • 28,6252025 • 23,532Note: Data provided courtesy of LA County Department of Housing and Homeless Services. For the first time, permanent housing data shows people instead of placements.[Slide 9]Formerly homeless participants who can not fully take over their leases are left without any additional support and some ultimately end up back on the streets. Participants who manage keep up with their portion of the rent apparently also end up back on the streets due to lack of TLS funding.300 families were displaced from housing they obtained on vouchers from nonprofit service provider Special Services for Groups “SSG” HOPICS Homeless Outreach Program Integrated Care System under the leadership of former Democratic Congresswoman representing the Santa Clarita Valley Katie Hill, who was later promoted to the LAHSA Commission.LAHSA says the story of the increase in homelessness in 2026 is that of TLS. But the displacement cycle caused by two-year subsidies expiring is not necessarily detectible in this annual count, and we might not see the full consequences of defunded TLS until the 2027 PIT. If TLS are still not funded, then we can only expect numbers to get worse.Additional data is not necessarily more accurate or useful.LAHSA conducted the first PIT count in an “even year” in 2016, marking the start of LAHSA pulling off annual counts. Even-year PIT counts go above and beyond the federal requirement of biennial counts (every two years). There’s no real reason why LA does twice as many PIT counts as the federal government requires. The counts are a logistical undertaking, sometimes recruiting 8,000 or more volunteers, plus they each cost millions of dollars and have involved the development of multiple specialized mobile apps for digital data collection.Census-type data is notoriously best-suited for observing macro-level trends over time, which is why the U.S. Census takes place only once per decade. Repeating the survey more often would waste resources without adding accuracy and cause hysteria over statistically insignificant fluctuations, ultimately working against the Bureau’s mission:to serve as the nation's leading provider of quality data about its people and economy.The disparity between LAHSA’s over-production of PIT data and DPH-CHIE’s sporadic and delayed release of PEH mortality reports is an encapsulation of LA’s preoccupation with aesthetics over actual human welfare.Want ALL the raw PIT data?Economic Roundtable has a repository at Economicrt.comYou can request anything you don’t see there from pra@lahsa.orgReach out if there’s anything you can’t get, because I may have it!Special thanks to Peter Connery of Applied Survey Research for taking me through designing and carrying out the 2005 GLAC!😒 Who’s ready for good news? 😏🎉🥳 It’s Zach’s birthday! Happy 40th birthday, Zachary Ellison! 👏🎈💥👫 Zach is getting married to his incredibly supportive longtime partner! 👰♀️🤵♂️💍 Congratulations to the beautiful bride and groom! 🎊 Data visualizations made with Flourish and illustrations made from prompts with Gemini and Grok for iOS (all free versions)Thanks for reading roofless! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit roofless.substack.com










