Episodes
121
Latest episode
Jul 2026
Language
EN-AU
Michael Frazis and Ellianna discuss the life sciences, technology, and their latest investment ideas.
00:00 Welcome back01:20 Building the portfolio gradually02:10 Semiconductor sell-off04:00 Why active management matters05:30 AI infrastructure07:30 Software weakness11:30 Risk management13:30 Growth investing misconceptions15:30 Current opportunities in healthcare
ASX: ROAR
ASX:ROAR #ROARetf Lioncrest Partners Pty Ltd (ACN 677 520 473 | CAR 001315184), an authorised representative of Frazis Capital Management Pty Ltd (ABN 91 638 965 910 | AFSL 521445). The Lion Active ETF (ASX:ROAR | ARSN 685 354 518) is issued by K2 Asset Management Ltd (ABN 95 085 445 094 | AFSL 244 393). All investments carry risk. You may lose some or all of your investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer. Before investing, seek independent financial advice and read the PDS and TMD available at https://lioncrestpartners.com/.
00:00 Why this AI cycle feels fundamentally different. 03:00 The shift from chatbots to fully autonomous AI agents. 07:00 Productivity explodes as software and workflows are built in minutes. 11:00 Security risks of AI with full computer access. 15:00 AI swarms and large-scale agent coordination emerge. 19:00 Hardware, compute, and memory demand return. 23:00 Software development accelerates ~100x. 27:00 Legacy SaaS and CRM models face disruption. 31:00 Market implications and underestimated software risk. 35:00 Healthcare, infrastructure, and AI beneficiaries. 39:00 Final thoughts on why this moment matters.
00:00 Mike joins from Thailand and reflects on Southeast Asia’s scale, energy and contrasts. 02:00 This AI cycle feels fundamentally different after years of incremental updates. 04:00 Productivity leaps as AI moves from copy-paste to orchestrating code and workflows. 06:30 Recent breakthroughs suggest AI may already be entering a self-improving phase. 09:00 Feedback loops from current usage will materially strengthen next-generation models. 11:00 FRA Capital is cancelling major SaaS subscriptions and rebuilding tools internally. 13:30 Hands-on AI usage is directly influencing investment positioning and sector views. 15:30 The shift reinforces semiconductors and compute while pressuring legacy software. 17:30 The buy-versus-build decision is swinging sharply toward in-house AI systems. 19:30 Wegovy’s PBS listing signals obesity being treated as a serious medical condition. 21:00 AI’s role in healthcare diagnostics continues to expand rapidly. 22:30 Wrap-up on why the AI capex and compute cycle likely extends further.
0:00 – Intro0:45 – The AI takeoff moment: why early 2026 feels different2:20 – From ChatGPT to agents: the real step-change in capability4:30 – Senior developers don’t write code anymore: time compression explained6:40 – Agent swarms: why one AI is no longer the point8:30 – What’s still broken and why the gaps are closing fast10:10 – Building a diary + memoir app in days, not months12:40 – AI-powered journaling, email prompts & memory extraction14:40 – Investment meetings solved: auto-generating the next 6 questions16:30 – Vibe coding in real time18:20 – Wealth Wise: automating databases people charge fortunes for20:10 – Replacing expert networks: GLG, Tegus & mass-market disruption22:30 – $100k software projects becoming weeks-long builds24:30 – Phase 1 vs Phase 2 AI: new winners, new losers26:40 – Compute demand explodes: why GPUs, power & energy still win28:40 – Software pressure: seats, subscriptions & enterprise risk30:40 – The terminal replaces the IDE: dev tools under threat32:40 – Marketing becomes the bottleneck: attention software33:20 – Closing thoughts: massive opportunity, few people paying attention
0:00 – Intro0:42 – Nvidia earnings: strong growth but odd details2:10 – Circular Nvidia deals: inventories, AR and “not-real” revenue4:40 – Retail mania: quantum computing, nuclear & Aussie drone stocks7:05 – When the music stops: 60–80% drawdowns in retail favourites9:05 – NeoClouds explained: ex-Bitcoin miners turned AI GPU landlords12:05 – Hyperscalers, Nvidia vs AMD and why GPU economics may crack14:00 – Gemini 3 vs ChatGPT & other models – real edge or hype?16:40 – How AI tools are changing developer workflows and markets18:20 – Frazis’ quant models, 73.5%/82% returns & trading the rips21:10 – CTA flows, max-long to max-short and a trillion in fast money23:40 – Discretionary stocks smashed: Chipotle, Six Flags, Nike & the consumer25:40 – Current positioning: cash levels, biotech pain & healthcare winners27:55 – Hunting the next leg higher: healthcare and niche AI stocks (Astera Labs, Credo, Nvidia)30:10 – Hims & Hers: stalled growth, GLP-1 price war & DTC disruption (Novo, Lilly)32:20 – Aussie small caps: DroneShield, Zip, Technology One & WiseTech34:05 – Software “strangle”: Salesforce, Atlassian, Wix and Figma vs Gemini35:40 – AlphaSense, Tegus, and why most “AI everywhere” UX is terrible36:45 – Australia macro rant: NDIS, housing, government stimulus & the AUD38:00 – Closing thoughts & watching for $100B+ of forced selling
Why markets look “fine” but small caps are quietly crashing The brutal 50 - 60% wipeouts in quantum, nuclear & neo-cloud stocks How 2025 became a one-way market dominated by AI & semiconductors AI CapEx, rate expectations, and why headlines are driving everything OpenAI vs Google Gemini vs Claude, who’s actually winning the AI race? The uncomfortable truth about Nvidia demand and “financed revenue” Neo-clouds explained: why leasing GPUs may signal weakness , not strength The looming AI oversupply risk nobody wants to talk about Why hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon) always win in compute cycles How our risk models cut exposure before major drawdowns Shorting as a defensive tools, reducing risk without timing the market Why US biotech quietly became one of the best-performing sectors GLP-1 drugs, oral weight-loss meds & the next healthcare rotation Software stocks at cycle lows, where 2–3x upside could emerge Why fintech and payments keep disappointing investors “Compounder” crashes: Nike, Lululemon & the end of premium multiples Aussie tech pain: Xero, WiseTech & massive valuation resets Defence, drones & insider selling, what signals really matter What would actually trigger the next broad market sell-off Our 2026 setup: where risk is rising and where opportunity is forming
0:00 – Intro: Mike & Ellianna catch up after Melbourne investor meetings 0:45 – Market update: Retail investors driving a red-hot rally 2:15 – Quants, institutions, and semiconductors hitting profit targets 3:40 – Why Frazis Capital is rotating into healthcare 4:30 – Spotlight on Grail: $10B spent chasing a pan-cancer blood test 6:10 – The Pathfinder 2 trial and physician skepticism 7:40 – FDA approval, adoption challenges, and cash burn9:00 – Clarity Pharmaceuticals: $203M raise and bold head-to-head trial 10:40 – Lessons from biotech cycles: Intellia’s 100% rebound 12:10 – Quant signals, timing, and managing risk in volatile markets 13:40 – Retail euphoria vs. institutional lag — what comes next? 15:10 – AI investment boom: data centers, semis, and software plays 17:00 – Byrna’s results & the “AI in everything” trend 18:20 – When hype meets fundamentals: the AMD-OpenAI deal 20:00 – Scaling out, profit-taking, and managing portfolio exposure 22:10 – Wrap-up and next week’s preview
00:00 – Intro & welcome to Chris Burns, CEO of Amplia 02:00 – Why pancreatic cancer is so deadly & hard to diagnose 06:30 – Current treatment options: Gem/Abraxane vs FOLFIRINOX 11:20 – Side effects & challenges with chemotherapy 15:00 – Why pancreatic cancer is difficult to treat (fibrosis & mutations) 19:00 – Amplia’s approach: FAK inhibitors and how they work 23:00 – History of FAK inhibitors & Amplia’s drug development story 27:00 – ACCENT trial design and early results (response rate, PFS) 32:00 – Complete responses & long-term responders (12–18+ months) 36:00 – Next steps: Simplicity trial with FOLFIRINOX 38:30 – Path to registrational trial & FDA fast track 41:00 – Combination opportunities: KRAS inhibitors & ADCs 43:00 – Commercial strategy, pricing, partnerships 44:30 – Wrap-up & final thoughts
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