June 12, 202631 min
#100: Market Update & Launch of ROAR
ASX: ROAR
Episodes
120
Latest episode
Jun 2026
Language
EN-AU
About the show
Michael Frazis and Ellianna discuss the life sciences, technology, and their latest investment ideas.
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June 2, 2026Episode 9936 min
#99: ETF Launch - ASX:ROAR
ASX:ROAR#ROARetf Lioncrest Partners Pty Ltd (ACN 677 520 473 | CAR 001315184), an authorised representative of Frazis Capital Management Pty Ltd (ABN 91 638 965 910 | AFSL 521445). The Lion Active ETF (ASX:ROAR | ARSN 685 354 518) is issued by K2 Asset Management Ltd (ABN 95 085 445 094 | AFSL 244 393). All investments carry risk. You may lose some or all of your investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer. Before investing, seek independent financial advice and read the PDS and TMD available at https://lioncrestpartners.com/.
February 2, 202639 min
#98: AI Agents, Software Collapse & the Next Tech Cycle
00:00 Why this AI cycle feels fundamentally different.03:00 The shift from chatbots to fully autonomous AI agents.07:00 Productivity explodes as software and workflows are built in minutes.11:00 Security risks of AI with full computer access.15:00 AI swarms and large-scale agent coordination emerge.19:00 Hardware, compute, and memory demand return.23:00 Software development accelerates ~100x.27:00 Legacy SaaS and CRM models face disruption.31:00 Market implications and underestimated software risk.35:00 Healthcare, infrastructure, and AI beneficiaries.39:00 Final thoughts on why this moment matters.
January 12, 2026Episode 9721 min
#97: AI Has Entered the Takeoff Phase
00:00 Mike joins from Thailand and reflects on Southeast Asia’s scale, energy and contrasts.02:00 This AI cycle feels fundamentally different after years of incremental updates.04:00 Productivity leaps as AI moves from copy-paste to orchestrating code and workflows.06:30 Recent breakthroughs suggest AI may already be entering a self-improving phase.09:00 Feedback loops from current usage will materially strengthen next-generation models.11:00 FRA Capital is cancelling major SaaS subscriptions and rebuilding tools internally.13:30 Hands-on AI usage is directly influencing investment positioning and sector views.15:30 The shift reinforces semiconductors and compute while pressuring legacy software.17:30 The buy-versus-build decision is swinging sharply toward in-house AI systems.19:30 Wegovy’s PBS listing signals obesity being treated as a serious medical condition.21:00 AI’s role in healthcare diagnostics continues to expand rapidly.22:30 Wrap-up on why the AI capex and compute cycle likely extends further.
January 5, 2026Episode 9633 min
#96: 99% of people missed it. You have 33 minutes to catch up.
0:00 – Intro0:45 – The AI takeoff moment: why early 2026 feels different2:20 – From ChatGPT to agents: the real step-change in capability4:30 – Senior developers don’t write code anymore: time compression explained6:40 – Agent swarms: why one AI is no longer the point8:30 – What’s still broken and why the gaps are closing fast10:10 – Building a diary + memoir app in days, not months12:40 – AI-powered journaling, email prompts & memory extraction14:40 – Investment meetings solved: auto-generating the next 6 questions16:30 – Vibe coding in real time18:20 – Wealth Wise: automating databases people charge fortunes for20:10 – Replacing expert networks: GLG, Tegus & mass-market disruption22:30 – $100k software projects becoming weeks-long builds24:30 – Phase 1 vs Phase 2 AI: new winners, new losers26:40 – Compute demand explodes: why GPUs, power & energy still win28:40 – Software pressure: seats, subscriptions & enterprise risk30:40 – The terminal replaces the IDE: dev tools under threat32:40 – Marketing becomes the bottleneck: attention software33:20 – Closing thoughts: massive opportunity, few people paying attention
December 28, 2025Episode 9438 min
#94: Nvidia’s Red Flags, NeoCloud Bubble & the Quiet Quant Crash
0:00 – Intro0:42 – Nvidia earnings: strong growth but odd details2:10 – Circular Nvidia deals: inventories, AR and “not-real” revenue4:40 – Retail mania: quantum computing, nuclear & Aussie drone stocks7:05 – When the music stops: 60–80% drawdowns in retail favourites9:05 – NeoClouds explained: ex-Bitcoin miners turned AI GPU landlords12:05 – Hyperscalers, Nvidia vs AMD and why GPU economics may crack14:00 – Gemini 3 vs ChatGPT & other models – real edge or hype?16:40 – How AI tools are changing developer workflows and markets18:20 – Frazis’ quant models, 73.5%/82% returns & trading the rips21:10 – CTA flows, max-long to max-short and a trillion in fast money23:40 – Discretionary stocks smashed: Chipotle, Six Flags, Nike & the consumer25:40 – Current positioning: cash levels, biotech pain & healthcare winners27:55 – Hunting the next leg higher: healthcare and niche AI stocks (Astera Labs, Credo, Nvidia)30:10 – Hims & Hers: stalled growth, GLP-1 price war & DTC disruption (Novo, Lilly)32:20 – Aussie small caps: DroneShield, Zip, Technology One & WiseTech34:05 – Software “strangle”: Salesforce, Atlassian, Wix and Figma vs Gemini35:40 – AlphaSense, Tegus, and why most “AI everywhere” UX is terrible36:45 – Australia macro rant: NDIS, housing, government stimulus & the AUD38:00 – Closing thoughts & watching for $100B+ of forced selling
December 23, 2025Episode 9543 min
#95 Year-End Market: AI CapEx, Nvidia, Neo-Clouds & 2026 Setup | Frazis Capital Podcast
Why markets look “fine” but small caps are quietly crashingThe brutal 50 - 60% wipeouts in quantum, nuclear & neo-cloud stocksHow 2025 became a one-way market dominated by AI & semiconductorsAI CapEx, rate expectations, and why headlines are driving everythingOpenAI vs Google Gemini vs Claude, who’s actually winning the AI race?The uncomfortable truth about Nvidia demand and “financed revenue”Neo-clouds explained: why leasing GPUs may signal weakness, not strengthThe looming AI oversupply risk nobody wants to talk aboutWhy hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon) always win in compute cyclesHow our risk models cut exposure before major drawdownsShorting as a defensive tools, reducing risk without timing the marketWhy US biotech quietly became one of the best-performing sectorsGLP-1 drugs, oral weight-loss meds & the next healthcare rotationSoftware stocks at cycle lows, where 2–3x upside could emergeWhy fintech and payments keep disappointing investors“Compounder” crashes: Nike, Lululemon & the end of premium multiplesAussie tech pain: Xero, WiseTech & massive valuation resetsDefence, drones & insider selling, what signals really matterWhat would actually trigger the next broad market sell-offOur 2026 setup: where risk is rising and where opportunity is forming
October 10, 2025Episode 9323 min
#93: Retail Driving Red-Hot Rally & the $10B Quest for the Holy Grail: Can Grail Change Cancer Detection?
0:00 – Intro: Mike & Ellianna catch up after Melbourne investor meetings0:45 – Market update: Retail investors driving a red-hot rally2:15 – Quants, institutions, and semiconductors hitting profit targets3:40 – Why Frazis Capital is rotating into healthcare4:30 – Spotlight on Grail: $10B spent chasing a pan-cancer blood test6:10 – The Pathfinder 2 trial and physician skepticism7:40 – FDA approval, adoption challenges, and cash burn9:00 – Clarity Pharmaceuticals: $203M raise and bold head-to-head trial10:40 – Lessons from biotech cycles: Intellia’s 100% rebound12:10 – Quant signals, timing, and managing risk in volatile markets13:40 – Retail euphoria vs. institutional lag — what comes next?15:10 – AI investment boom: data centers, semis, and software plays17:00 – Byrna’s results & the “AI in everything” trend18:20 – When hype meets fundamentals: the AMD-OpenAI deal20:00 – Scaling out, profit-taking, and managing portfolio exposure22:10 – Wrap-up and next week’s preview
September 19, 2025Episode 9345 min
Amplia Therapeutics with CEO Chris Burns
00:00 – Intro & welcome to Chris Burns, CEO of Amplia02:00 – Why pancreatic cancer is so deadly & hard to diagnose06:30 – Current treatment options: Gem/Abraxane vs FOLFIRINOX11:20 – Side effects & challenges with chemotherapy15:00 – Why pancreatic cancer is difficult to treat (fibrosis & mutations)19:00 – Amplia’s approach: FAK inhibitors and how they work23:00 – History of FAK inhibitors & Amplia’s drug development story27:00 – ACCENT trial design and early results (response rate, PFS)32:00 – Complete responses & long-term responders (12–18+ months)36:00 – Next steps: Simplicity trial with FOLFIRINOX38:30 – Path to registrational trial & FDA fast track41:00 – Combination opportunities: KRAS inhibitors & ADCs43:00 – Commercial strategy, pricing, partnerships44:30 – Wrap-up & final thoughts
June 16, 2025Episode 9225 min
#92: Syntara Phase 2 Success, Geopolitics and Uranium
Syntara’s highly anticipated Phase 2 results in myelofibrosis—what the data tells us, why the market sold off, and what might come next in terms of funding or partnership.
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