Deep Economic Thoughts

Hosted by Ivan Illan

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May 2026

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About the show

Forbes thought leader and bestselling Dummies author, Ivan Illan, shares timely capital markets and economic perspectives for sophisticated investors and financial advisors alike.

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30 recent

May 21, 202613 min

Bankers, Bubbles, and Bag Holders

Wall Street's perfect AI exit strategy. Everyone is screaming "buy" on everything AI and Nvidia-adjacent. But here's what they aren't telling you: The IPO window is wide open for one reason only—to let insiders cash out. In today's episode, we connect the dots between the AI hype machine, the surge in tech filings, and the quiet exodus of early investors. Don't let bankers use your capital to fund their liquidity event. Tune in to learn how to spot the difference between a real opportunity and a euphoria-driven trap. #AI #Nvidia #IPO #Investing #WallStreet #RetailInvestors #TechStocks #Podcast For more information, please visit: https://linktr.ee/awaim Copyright ©2026, AWAIM® & AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED 瞻盛財富有限公司 Central Entity No.: BWA579 Licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activity. For Type 9 regulated activity, the licensee shall only carry on a business in the management of: i. discretionary accounts; and ii.collective investment schemes that are offered to professional investors only. The terms "collective investment scheme" and "professional investor" are defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation (where applicable). The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

January 2, 202616 min

The Mosaic of Insight: Global Expansion, Deep Research & A Challenge to TAMP Users

Recorded from Hong Kong, this episode is a personal reflection on a major milestone: the 2025 expansion of our asset management company from its SEC-regulated base in Los Angeles to a new SFC-regulated entity in Asia. Marking nearly 30 years in investment management (since 1996), this move is a strategic step to enrich our research mosaic. We discuss why being physically present in a major financial hub, adjacent to the world's second-largest economy, is about more than data—it's about accessing qualitative insights, conversations, and perspectives that charts alone can't provide. We delve into our disciplined research framework: the vital importance of asking the right questions, the irreplaceable value of face-to-face professional networking (like CFA societies), and how our global team synthesizes this into weekly investment committee decisions. The conversation culminates in a direct and passionate challenge to Financial Advisors using TAMPs (Turnkey Asset Management Platforms). Compliance is not enough. True fiduciary duty requires advisors to become experts on their TAMP's process—to question portfolio managers, understand the investment philosophy deeply, and never settle for an "adequate" solution. It's a call to elevate the standard of due diligence for the ultimate benefit of the client. Key Topics Covered: The strategic "why" behind expanding from Los Angeles to Hong Kong. Building a research "mosaic": Combining global data with on-the-ground qualitative insight. The discipline of a formal, evolving investment committee process. A 30-year perspective on active risk management and alpha generation. A Critical Challenge: Why Financial Advisors must go beyond surface-level TAMP usage and become true students of their investment partners. Listen for: An authentic take on global finance, research philosophy, and a compelling call to action for advisors who want to deepen their practice and uphold the highest standard of client trust. For more information, please visit: https://linktr.ee/awaim Copyright ©2026, AWAIM® & AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. AWAIM® (HK) LIMITED 瞻盛財富有限公司 Central Entity No.: BWA579 Licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) to conduct Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activity. For Type 9 regulated activity, the licensee shall only carry on a business in the management of: i. discretionary accounts; and ii.collective investment schemes that are offered to professional investors only. The terms "collective investment scheme" and "professional investor" are defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance and its subsidiary legislation (where applicable). The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

June 13, 202510 min

Full-Time vs Part-Time: A Shifting US Employment Picture

In this episode, Ivan Illan, AIF, CFS, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM shares the US employment chnages underway. Demographics and changing company financials are driving seismic shifts in how the US labor force experiences employment opportunities. For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog Copyright © 2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

May 9, 202511 min

China's Overall Exports Rose 8% In April, Even As Exports To US Fell 21%

Even though Trump's tariffs on China are meant to place pain and pressure on their economy, it appears that China is navigating US tariffs deftly. China's exports to other regions around the world have markedly increased, which has effectively offset the huge exports declines to the US. For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog Copyright © 2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

March 10, 20259 min

Radio Interview KABC 790AM - March 8, 2025

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, AWAIM was a special guest for the full hour on The Bruce Cook Conversation. Ivan discussed all things economics with Bruce. This is the first segment of four from that radio interview. Original air date: March 8, 2025 at 8PM PT. For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright ©2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

October 14, 202427 min

CA Senator Josh Newman & Ivan Illan on The Conversation w/ Bruce Cook (Radio Replay)

Founder & CIO at AWAIM, Ivan Illan, joins California Senator Josh Newman on The Conversation with Bruce Cook discussing the condition of California's and the U.S. economy including jobs, deficits, and education. (Original Air Date: October 13, 2024 at 6PM PT on AM830 KLAA) For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright © 2024, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

September 13, 202415 min

Same Economic Outcomes Decades Apart: 1970s & 2020s

In preparing for my September 2024 Forbes article, I stumbled upon a shocking set of nearly identical, devastating economic statistics regarding the U.S. economy. Graphs and data referenced in this episode comparing the periods of 1975 to 1980 versus 2019 to 2024 can be found at: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-09-04-2024 For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright © 2024, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions. The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated. AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

August 14, 202410 min

Are Stocks Cheap Yet? Refer To The Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield For Perspective

As discussed in detail last summer (see Research Highlights and Forbes article), comparing the Earnings Yield on stocks (using the S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield [CAEY]) to the Risk-Free Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds can have an elucidating effect on an investor's favor towards equities or away from them. Recall that Earnings Yield is equal to Earnings Per Share divided by its Stock Share Price. By simply inverting the Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio, you attain the Earnings Yield, which standardizes a stock's attractiveness as a cash flow instrument (typically stocks are bought for capital growth or dividend yield or some combination thereof) relative to other cash flows instruments (typically bonds for fixed income purposes). Updated Research Highlight with data referenced in this episode found at: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-08-07-2024 Copyright © 2024 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®

July 10, 202412 min

High Yield or Small Caps, Which Market Is Assessing Forward-Looking Risk Better?

In this month's episode, Ivan Illan, Founder & CIO at AWAIM®, explores the dichotomy of two segments of the capital markets - U.S. high yield bonds and U.S. small cap stocks. Both of these segments are predominantly charaterized by below investment grade credit ratings and typically demonstrate high price correlations. However, the past few years have not held this relationship. Ivan examines what may be driving this valuation differential, and what that may mean for risk assessment on a forward-looking basis. For more information on this subject, please visit the charts referenced in this episode at https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-07-03-2024 Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

June 25, 202411 min

Is The A.I. Bubble Bursting?

The past few days have been hard on A.I. stocks, which until now have been driven higher and higher by the widespread A.I. euphoria. In this episode, I discuss a recent Working Paper (published May 2024) from the National Bureau of Economic Research that shares a more modest projection on the impact of A.I. in total factor productivity over the next 10 years. For more information on this Working Paper, please visit NBER at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32487 For more information on AWAIM®, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®