Curve Your Enthusiasm

Hosted by CIBC

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May 2026

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About the show

Welcome to Curve Your Enthusiasm by CIBC Capital Markets, the only podcast in the world focusing on the Canadian economy and fixed income market.

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60 recent

May 29, 202624 min

Thinking about the ‘day-after’ repricing

Ian is joined this week by Mike Cloherty, and the duo begin the show by discussing what to expect from the bond market when Middle East tension dissipates. The mechanics of the repricing are well understood, though Mike sees more downside risk to the very front-end given the current starting point of Fed expectations. Ian discusses why the CAD rates market has gotten so expensive, and why the repricing in the short-end has limits. The pair talk about CIBC’s new interest rate forecast and the risks around it, in addition to an updated view on the performance of swap spreads going forward. Mike discusses recent SOFR trends, and the show finishes off with a pop-quiz. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

April 6, 202629 min

How healthy are Canadian SMEs?

Ian is joined this week by Dan Kelly, President & CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses (CFIB). The CFIB is the biggest non-profit organization in Canada, lobbying on behalf of their 100k+ members. The show begins with a discussion on how SMEs have weathered trade uncertainty and more recently, higher energy prices. Dan does a deep dive on labour market trends across the most active SME industries, noting that nearly 65% of all private sector labour demand comes from small businesses. The show progresses with other topics discussed like overall business sentiment, alternative measures of the job market, and how the federal government needs to refocus its productivity strategy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

January 20, 202644 min

A Conversation with Jean Boivin

In the first episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm in 2026, Ian is joined by Ali Jaffery from CIBC economics and Jean Boivin, Head of BlackRock Global Investment Institute. Jean begins the episode by outlining his core investment themes for 2026 across asset classes. It is hard to talk about 2026 without discussing AI, and Jean provides his view on why the near-term economic impact is inflationary, versus the longer-run impact which is disinflationary. The group discusses the risks inherent in the AI buildout, opines on market pricing across regions, and finishes the episode with a deep-dive on the Canadian economy and inflation path. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

October 17, 202528 min

Fiscal thoughts & world series ambitions

Canada is weeks away from receiving the federal budget, which is creating a lot of interest from market participants. In this episode, Ian and Ali spend time discussing why this budget will look different than those in prior years. The introduction of the new framework, coupled with expectations of fiscal stimulus, make this a key event for markets. The show begins with Ali discussing the reasons for the changes to the framework, while Ian discusses why markets are so hyper-focused on how the budget will be financed. The pair spend some time talking about whether the Bank can ease rates after the budget has been released, focusing on the impact to the economy from the elevated fiscal spend. The show concludes with Ian discussing why markets are reluctant to price-in more from the Bank, while Ali opines on what a Blue Jays World Series win will do the economy! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

August 6, 202528 min

A very stable disequilibrium

In this episode of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Ian is joined by Brendan Donaher, Executive Director STIRT trading. The show begins by discussing the recent U.S. jobs report, and the implications to the perception of economic data going forward and how that should affect the bond market. Brenden discusses how FOMC pricing has evolved, and his favorite trades. The duo begin to discuss what Fed pricing means for BoC pricing, rightly noting how cheap CAD front-end valuations are. Brenden provides his view on what pension hedging means for Canadian cross-currency basis swaps, while also highlighting key themes in global funding markets. The show ends with a discussion on the BoC’s balance sheet, and which trades Ian and Brenden think offer the most attractive opportunities at present. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

April 11, 202524 min

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the co-hosts begin the show discussing the manic week that was. There was not a lot of visibility to the moves in bond and equity markets over the prior few sessions, and Jeremy discusses his view on what was real and what was myth. Ian spends some time talking about the lack of evidence to support a few of the theories that markets are thinking about. The duo spend time talking about the level of interest rates going forward, disagreeing on the most likely direction of longer-term interest rates over the coming weeks. Ian provides his view on what the Bank of Canada is likely to do at their meeting next week, while Jeremy gives an update on his Fed views. The show completes with Ian and Jeremy discussing their favourite expressions of macro themes in the bond market. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

February 7, 202534 min

Excess hot potatoes

In the first episode of 2025, Ian is joined by Aaron Carter from the financing desk to discuss recent adjustments in the short-end. The show begins with the duo discussing the importance of the Bank of Canada’s move to change the way monetary policy is implemented, namely moving back into a corridor system. Aaron gives his ‘big picture’ view on why this is a real game-changer for CORRA, and his expectations around the evolution of the spread to the target rate. Ian takes time discussing the various administered rates in the Canadian short-end and how to think about the subset of arbitrage opportunities. Aaron finishes the episode by describing the incoming tri-party repo system and how that will interact with monetary policy going forward. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

November 19, 202441 min

A conversation with Stephen Poloz

In a very special edition of Curve Your Enthusiasm, Stephen Poloz joins Ian as co-host for this week’s episode. The show begins by talking about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and what potential trade uncertainty means for the Canadian economy and monetary policy. Stephen spends time talking about the structural underperformance of the Canadian economy relative to other OECD countries, and provides some suggestions on how it could be fixed. The duo discuss R*, and why the actual neutral rate is not moving as fast as markets may think. In the balance of the episode, the duo discusses the impact of higher longer-term interest rates on monetary policy, the role of a flexible exchange rate and, how much the BoC can diverge from the Fed. The show finishes with a discussion on Stephen’s new mandate with Canadian pension plans. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

November 4, 202427 min

The reflexivity doom loop

Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders this week, and the duo begin the show discussing the spate of U.S. jobs data last week. Ian discusses the internals of the JOLTS and NFP reports, noting the trend for U.S. labour demand is a negative one. Jeremy opines on his view on the election, and how the best opportunities are to fade recent flattening in the U.S. curve. They take some time to discuss the BoC, noting that recent data provides no confidence the Bank will slow down the cycle anytime soon. Ian outlines his view for a steeper swap-spread curve while Jeremy paints a picture of a flatter one. The pair spend some time talking about the specific tenors of the spread curve, and end the show outlining their favorite trades for the week ahead. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

October 7, 202432 min

This is a really good episode

Ian is joined by two guests this week, Paul Beaudry (Professor of Economics at UBC and Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada) and Ali Jaffery from CIBC Economics. The episode begins with Paul giving his view on the 50.0bps cut from FOMC, and what the most recent strong NFP means for the November meeting (hint: 25.0bps not 50.0bps). In contrast, when thinking about the Bank of Canada, Paul outlines his views that the preconditions for getting administered rates to a much lower are setting have been met for Canada, and provides his views for the October meeting (hint: 50.0bps, not 25.0bps). Ian discusses the need for a smaller balance sheet, while Ali gives an update on what higher energy prices mean for the BoC reaction function. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.