Crossing Thin Ice

Hosted by Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph

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Oct 2026

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About the show

A discussion of Risk and Risk Management from the perspective of an Insurance company risk manager. Insurers provide products that help everyone to manage their risks. Here you will hear Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph, talk about the sorts of things that keep those insurance company risk managers up at night. Or at least they should.

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60 recent

October 20, 2026Episode 9218 min

Tell, Don't Ask

The real challenge is determining whether our prompting habits are designed for rigorous oversight or merely built on misplaced trust in autonomous reasoning. When we prompt large language models, we are taught to ask for an answer and trust its chain of thought. Yet research demonstrates that models generate conclusions first, rationalizing an explanation only after the fact. In high-stakes technical environments, relying on post-hoc justifications creates an unmonitored point of failure. How to get more accurate, auditable answers from AI without burning through your compute budget on brute-force agents.

October 8, 2026Episode 9119 min

In Hard Times, the CRO Needs to Step Up

Prepare to be helpful and create an expectation of an activist CRO during a crisis. The classic Three Lines of Defense model was designed for fair weather. But when a problem hits, adhering strictly to Second Line aloof independence is often the worst move a CRO can make for the company and personally.

September 22, 2026Episode 9015 min

Four Risks that will Take Down a Company

Leverage boosts your returns in a boom, but it acts as a threat multiplier the moment markets turn. Let's talk about how to de-risk before the margin call. Here is our 4-part formula that exposes your company's hidden insolvency risks before a crisis hits.

September 8, 2026Episode 8920 min

Difficulty of Risk Management in the Best of Times

Lots of things seem easy during a Boom. But risk management is not one of those. Dave and Max discuss those difficulties and provide some suggestions for how a CRO can navigate doing their job when risk seems to be minimal to most everyone. This is Podcast 89 in the Crossing Thin Ice series. Enjoy.

August 18, 2026Episode 8823 min

The Emerging Risk Time Zone

Are You Ready for the Next Unknown Known? Relying on rules of thumb and past trends is a fast track to getting blindsided. From climate feedback loops to high-velocity risks, here is why traditional modeling fails in an unpredictable world—and how first-principles thinking can keep you ahead.

August 4, 2026Episode 8718 min

Implementing ERM (Part 2)

Successful ERM implementations develop over time through iterative refinement, building organizational buy-in before layering on complex modeling structures. Here is Part 2 of "Implementing ERM". In part 1, we covered the foundational core: balancing risk exploitation with downside protection, navigating the five phases of the risk control cycle, and applying four primary measurement methodologies to quantify exposure. Now, in Part 2, we’re moving from operations to Strategy. We will be diving into setting actionable risk appetites and tolerances, communicating effectively with senior leadership, and positioning the CRO as a strategic business partner rather than 'Doctor No'.

July 21, 2026Episode 8623 min

Implementing ERM (Part 1)

Regular ERM is one of the six Time Zones of ERM. This is part 1 of our discussion of regular ERM. We include discussion of Exploiting Risk by focusing on both upside and downside of risk. The three Levels of ERM. The Risk Control Cycle. Risk Prioritization. Emerging Risk and the role of human foresight. And finish up with discussion of four Risk Measurement techniques. Part 2 will land next month.

July 7, 2026Episode 8521 min

What if Tuberculosis comes back in 2026?

History has a way of creeping back when we assume the battle is already won. In this our 85th episode, we confront an immediate, present-day vulnerability to TB that most professionals believe belongs safely in the textbooks of the past. Current risk frameworks are structurally blind to slow-moving, invisible threats that erode infrastructure from the inside out. TB has been quietly adapting beneath the surface of modern economic and social systems while the world looks the other way. Tune in to find out why this emerging risk requires a radical, immediate shift in perspective.

June 16, 2026Episode 8419 min

Six Time Zones of Risk Management

I used to think a great ERM program just meant strict discipline. Now I know the best CROs have an ERM playbook with multiple sets of plays and sometimes they are calling audibles, changing the ERM play at the last moment. Most companies run their business using a single ERM playbook—until a crisis hits. Today we address 6 distinct "time zones" and explain how you actually need different playbooks for each.

June 2, 2026Episode 8327 min

Anticipating Outlier Scenarios

Outliers are events we know are possible—we have the data, the science, or the historical precedent—but we actively ignore them because they haven't happened recently. They grow in the dark because a stable economy breeds complacency, leading institutions to price assets as if these threats don't exist. In today's podcast, Max explains how we must shine a light into the dark corners of the market—looking for risk interactions, tightening loan covenants, and questioning historical models before the next Outlier forces the light on for all of us.