The Coffee & Cap Rates Podcast delivers the latest insights on New York City’s commercial real estate market. Hosted by Ariel Property Advisors, it offers expert analysis, market trends, and timely conversations with industry leaders.
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August 19, 2026Episode 12713 min
127. NYC Investment Sales 1H 2026: Following the Capital, Not the Noise with Shimon Shkury
Shimon Shkury , President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, shares his outlook on New York City’s investment sales market in the first half of 2026 in this special episode of Coffee & Cap Rates , recorded at Ariel Property Advisors’ Separating Signal from Noise: NYC Investment Sales in 1H 2026 event on July 30, 2026. Shimon examines where capital is investing across NYC’s multifamily, office, development, affordable housing, and retail markets, highlighting the role of reset valuations, fundamentals, policy alignment, and distress in shaping investment activity. Watch the full presentation on YouTube .
August 12, 2026Episode 12612 min
126. NYC Multifamily Q2 2026: Market Growth, Financing & the Outlook for 2H 2026 featuring Victor Sozio & Matt Swerdlow
In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates , Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discussed Ariel Property Advisors’ Q2 2026 Multifamily Quarter in Review with Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director in Capital Services. The trio discussed the performance of the multifamily real estate market during the second quarter of 2022, including: Market Growth: The multifamily market totaled nearly $2.5 billion. Asset Class Performance: Free Market: This segment saw continued rent growth and strong investor competition. Manhattan and Brooklyn remain attractive for these types of assets. Rent Stabilized: This market faces significant struggles, with low trading volumes in outer boroughs like the Bronx, Queens, and Northern Manhattan. Factors contributing to this include a 0% rent increase, elevated interest rates and concerns regarding regulatory risks. Affordable Housing: Project-based Section 8 housing remains a premier asset class due to federal subsidies and stability. It represents about 10% of the overall transaction volume. Financing and Debt: For rent-stabilized assets, borrowers facing maturity are advised to engage lenders early to discuss potential modifications or extensions, as property values have changed significantly. Refinancing and acquisition financing remain available through agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and CMBS, with some deals achieving 70–75% loan-to-value ratios. Future Outlook: The speakers anticipate an active second half of the year, with a strong contract pipeline pointing toward sustained or increased transaction volume in the third and fourth quarters. Despite the challenges in the rent-stabilized sector, there is notable seller motivation to transact if debt-related issues can be resolved. Access the full report here .
May 12, 2026Episode 12530 min
125. NYC Multifamily at a Crossroads | Kenny Burgos on Rent Stabilization, HSTPA & Housing Policy
In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury sits down with Kenny Burgos, CEO of the New York Apartment Association, to discuss the current state of New York City’s multifamily housing market and the growing challenges facing the rent-stabilized sector. The conversation takes a deep dive into the long-term effects of the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act (HSTPA), including vacancy control, rising operating costs, capital constraints, declining valuations, and affordability pressures across the city’s housing stock. Together, they explore how policy changes, economic vacancy, and structural market constraints are reshaping investment activity, asset performance, and financing conditions for rent-stabilized housing in New York City — and what it may take to restore long-term stability and investment viability.
April 28, 2026Episode 12411 min
124. NYC Multifamily Q1 2026: Free Market Strength, Rent-Stabilized Pressure & Lending Liquidity featuring Victor Sozio & Matthew Dzbanek
Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors; Victor Sozio, Founding Partner; and Matthew Dzbanek, Senior Director in the Capital Services Group, take a deep dive into New York City’s multifamily market on this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates. They discuss key trends from Ariel Property Advisors’ Q1 2026 Multifamily Quarter in Review New York City , and what to expect for the remainder of the year. Highlights from the podcast include: The NYC multifamily market recorded approximately $2.4 billion in transaction volume in Q1 2026, up 7% year-over-year, reflecting sustained investor activity despite a bifurcated market. Free market assets continued to drive momentum, supported by rising rents and strong investor demand, while rent-stabilized properties faced ongoing pressure from expenses, regulatory constraints, and NOI erosion. The rent-stabilized segment saw notable activity, including distressed transactions, as owners and lenders increasingly worked toward restructurings and pragmatic solutions. Affordable housing remained steady, with private capital increasingly stepping into existing structures and sophisticated investors targeting long-term value opportunities. Lending activity remained active for well-located free market assets, while capital availability for stabilized assets remained more selective, with lenders focused on collections, violations, and overall asset quality. Construction and development financing continued to attract strong interest, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics and growing appetite for new rental and condo projects. Overall, liquidity and investor engagement are expected to remain strong as both buyers and lenders continue to meet the market in 2026. Access the full report here: https://arielpa.com/report/report-MFQIR-Q1-2026#overview
March 13, 2026Episode 12310 min
123. Bronx CRE 2025: Rising Development & Multifamily Opportunities featuring Jason M. Gold & Daniel Mahfar
In the latest Coffee & Cap Rates podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Jason Gold, Senior Director, and Daniel Mahfar, Director, discuss multifamily and development market trends in the Bronx as reported in Ariel’s Bronx 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report . Highlights from the podcast and report include: The Bronx real estate market reached $1.8 billion in 2025, a 46% year-over-year increase, with multifamily dollar volume rising 66% and development up 26%. The average price per unit for multifamily units hit a 7-year low of $105,000, influenced by high interest rates, increased expenses, including insurance and taxes, and anticipated rent freezes for stabilized buildings. Multifamily pricing is expected to remain at a decade-plus low, attracting local owners seeking a low basis relative to the rest of the country. Development activity is forecast to continue an upward trend due to investors’ increased familiarity with the 485x tax abatement and "City of Yes" regulations.
March 9, 2026Episode 12214 min
122. Manhattan CRE 2025: Investment Sales, Development Momentum & Market Outlook featuring Michael A. Tortorici, Christoffer Brodhead & Howard Raber
Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors; Michael A. Tortorici, Founding Partner; Christoffer Brodhead, Senior Director; and Howard Raber, Director, take a deep dive into Manhattan’s investment sales market on this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates. They discussed trends in Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report and what to expect in 2026. Highlights from the podcast include: Manhattan’s transactional dollar volume reached $22.77 billion in 2025, signaling strong investor confidence and positive growth trends across development, multifamily and office sectors. Driven by limited inventory and a high-performing condo market, development site sales totaled nearly $4 billion with pricing jumping 11% to $468 per buildable square foot—the highest level recorded since 2021. Accounting for 50% of Manhattan’s total dollar volume ($11.3 billion), the office market was fueled by high-value Class A transactions and a growing trend of Class B and C assets being repositioned for residential or boutique office use. Investors showed a clear preference for free market multifamily properties, which represented 84% of total multifamily dollar volume, as investors looked to capitalize on free market assets currently trading 18% below their 2017 peaks.
February 24, 2026Episode 12113 min
121. Brooklyn CRE 2025: Sales Trends, Development Growth & Market Insights featuring Sean R. Kelly & Stephen Vorvolakos
Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Sean R. Kelly, Esq., Partner, and Stephen Vorvolakos, Director, discuss trends in Brooklyn’s commercial real estate market and the findings of Ariel Property Advisors’ Brooklyn 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report . Highlights from the report include: Brooklyn closed 2025 with $6.66 billion in total commercial real estate sales across 951 transactions, reflecting an 8% decline in dollar volume and 2% increase in transactions compared to 2024. The development market rallied in 2025 with 172 transactions totaling $1.8 billion, an increase of 25% and 41%, respectively, compared to 2024. Multifamily dollar volume dipped 3% year over year to $3.47 billion while transactions rose 7% to 582. Brooklyn retail saw 76 transactions totaling $523 million, representing decreases of 10% and 17%, respectively, compared to 2024. Boroughwide, transaction activity was largely driven by smaller, mom-and-pop retail sales.
February 17, 2026Episode 12010 min
120. NYC Multifamily 2025: Valuations, Policy Pressure & Liquidity Ahead featuring Victor Sozio & Matt Swerdlow
Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director in the Capital Services Group, discuss New York City’s multifamily market and the findings of Ariel Property Advisors’ Multifamily Year In Review New York City 2025 . Highlights include: Total dollar volume was relatively unchanged year-over-year, totaling $8.91 billion in 2025 compared to $9.1 billion in 2024. Free market buildings led multifamily sales citywide, accounting for 66% of dollar volume and 48% of transactions. Rent stabilized assets followed in deal frequency (47%) but trailed in value (20%), while affordable housing rounded out the market with 13% of the volume and 6% of transactions. Capital rewarded free-market housing with rising valuations, affordable housing remained active through strong public-private alignment and rent-stabilized assets traded at steep discounts as NOI eroded under policy and cost pressures. The rent-stabilized sector continued to grapple with regulations, rising costs and mortgage maturities at higher rates. Many banks are focusing on free market transactions, office transactions, retail transactions, and assets that aren’t regulated. The multifamily market will see increased liquidity in 2026 as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will each have $88 billion to lend for a total of $176 billion.
January 26, 2026Episode 11933 min
119. Celebrating 15 Years of Ariel Property Advisors in CRE with Shimon Shkury & Roxanne Donovan
To celebrate 15 years of Ariel Property Advisors , President & Founder Shimon Shkury sits down with Roxanne Donovan , President of Great Ink, for an exclusive conversation about the firm’s journey in New York City’s commercial real estate market. From its founding in 2011 to growing into a 65-person team united by shared values and collaboration, Ariel has evaluated, sold, and financed billions of dollars of real estate in NYC while arranging financing for clients nationwide. Listen to the episode to hear reflections on the past 15 years, the story of Ariel’s growth, its core values, the advisory-first approach, and more! For more information about Ariel’s accomplishments, read the 2025 Annual Report .
December 4, 2025Episode 11810 min
118. Shimon Shkury on NYC Real Estate Momentum: Office, Development & Multifamily
Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, provides an in-depth overview of New York City’s office, development, and multifamily markets. This presentation, “Behind the Sales: What’s Fueling Investment in NYC Real Estate?” , was delivered at the NYC Real Estate Expo on October 28, 2025, at the New York Marriott Marquis. Listen to the presentation on this podcast and click here to access the slides.
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