Coffee & Cap Rates

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Michael Tortorici, Founding Partner, and Sean R. Kelly, Esq. Partner, discuss highlights from the recently approved City of Yes for Housing Opportunity plan, which will add more than 80,000 new apartments over 15 years and invest $5 billion in infrastructure updates and housing. The partners explore how the new initiative will add housing in neighborhoods throughout New York City, increase the density of some development sites, promote office conversions, allow new development on large campuses and much more. A summary of the City of Yes is available here.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Dzbanek, Senior Director in Capital Markets, explore trends in the multifamily market and discuss Ariel’s Q3 2024 Multifamily Quarter in Review New York City research report in this podcast.Among the topics: there were $2.33 billion in multifamily sales in Q3 2024, a 17% decline from Q2 2024; of the total sales, $1.27 billion of the trades were in Manhattan below 96th Street; multifamily assets are offering investors a buying opportunity today because values have fallen across all segments; mortgage maturities are forcing sales, while sales based on strategic decisions are focused on equity reallocation; interest rates remain elevated, which is leaving owners reluctant to transact due to the uncertainty of achieving desired values; affordable housing remains desirable when it’s available; and more buyers, sellers and lenders are expected to return to the market in 2025.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, interviews Ariel’s Manhattan experts Michael Tortorici, Founding Partner; Chris Brodhead, Senior Director, and Howard Raber, Director, about what they’re seeing in the Manhattan market. They discuss how mortgage maturities are driving transactions, the increase in rent stabilized multifamily sales, condo development trends, office to residential conversions and housing policies including the City of Yes.According to Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report, investment sales in Manhattan in 1H 2024 rose to $5.8 billion over 167 transactions, a 14% and 16% increase, respectively, compared to 2H 2023, Average pricing for multifamily properties dropped by 15% from $722/SF in 2023 to $611/SF in 1H 2024, while average cap rates increased from 5.24% to 6.19%. The report showed that development sales totaled $1.12 billion in 1H 2024, a 128% increase from 2H 2023, and transactions totaled 28, an 115% increase over this period. Office to residential conversions accounted for approximately 50% of the development dollar volume. 

This podcast is a recording of the panel Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, moderated at Ariel’s July 31st Coffee & Cap Rates event hosted by TD Bank. Sharing their perspectives on the commercial real estate industry with an emphasis on the development market were panelists Ralph Bumbaca, NYC Market President - TD Bank; Christopher V. Albanese, President - Albanese Organization; and Jasper Wu, Vice President - ZD Jasper. Over 200 NYC real estate professionals attended this networking breakfast held at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt. More information about the event is available here.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses Ariel’s Brooklyn 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Brooklyn experts Partner Sean R. Kelly, Esq., and Director Stephen Vorvolakos. Overall, investment sales in Brooklyn rose to $3.36 billion in 1H 2024, a 43% increase compared to 2H 2023 and 18% increase compared to 1H 2023. In the multifamily market, Mr. Vorvolakos said owners are adjusting their pricing, which is creating opportunities for investors. The average cap rate rose to 6.48% in 1H 2024, the highest level since 2012, which can be attributed to elevated interest rates and uncertainty about new regulations. In the development market, Mr. Kelly said the new 485x tax incentive, the successor to 421a, is breathing new life back into the development market. Also, local developers are partnering with institutional capital and building farther into the borough. More details about the Brooklyn market are available in the Brooklyn 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

This podcast is a recording of the overview of the New York City investment sales market and key findings from Ariel Property Advisor’s mid-year research reports that Shimon Shkury, Ariel’s President and Founder, presented at the firm’s July 31st Coffee & Cap Rates event hosted by TD Bank. Over 200 NYC real estate professionals attended the networking breakfast held at TD Bank’s conference center at One Vanderbilt. More information about the event is available here.

In this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses the findings in Ariel’s Mid-Year Bronx report with Jason Gold, Senior Director, and Daniel Mahfar, Director. Overall, the dollar volume of investment sales in the Bronx rose 13% to $445 million in 1H 2024 compared to 2H 2023, according to Ariel’s Bronx 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report. Transactions fell 10% to 90 for this period. Compared to 2H 2023, multifamily dollar volume increased by 38% in 1H 2024 from 2H 2023 for a total of $208.5 million. Transaction volume declined by three transactions to 36 over the same period. A total of 33 development site transactions were recorded in the first six months of 2024 totaling $166.4 million, which marked a 50% and 86% increase, respectively, compared to H2 2023. The podcast participants noted that development is expected to increase in the Bronx because of the 485x tax abatement, which was part of the new housing policy, and a major rezoning in the Bronx, which is expected to produce new housing along 46 blocks surrounding the new Metro North stations in the Parkchester, Van Nest, and Morris Park neighborhoods. More information is available in the Bronx 2024 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses Ariel’s latest multifamily research report with Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director in Capital Markets. Mortgage maturities were one of the drivers in the multifamily market in the second quarter with dollar volume jumping 108% quarter-over-quarter to $2.83 billion and transactions rising 4% to 265. The future looks even better for the multifamily market as Treasuries have fallen below 4% and the market expects the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting in September. More information is available in Ariel’s research Q2 2024 Multifamily Quarter in Review: New York City.

On this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, and Ben Schlegel, Director of Capital Services at Ariel, discuss financing options in today’s commercial real estate market. Schlegel notes that despite higher for longer interest rates, capital is available for deals that make sense financially including private money, CMBS loans and preferred equity and mezzanine debt.

On this podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discusses the overall financial health of rent stabilized buildings in New York City with Jay Martin, Executive Director of the Community Housing Improvement Program (CHIP), a landlord advocacy group, and Matt Engel, President of Langsam Property Services Corp., an owner/operator, and Chairman of CHIP.The topics include rising interest rates, post-Covid collections, property taxes, the Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act (HSTPA) of 2019 and the state’s new housing policy, which tweaked HSTPA by slightly increasing Individual Apartment Improvement caps for rent stabilized apartments. A summary of the state’s new housing policy is available here.