Coffee & Cap Rates: Commercial Real Estate Podcast

Hosted by Ariel Property Advisors

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Episodes

128

Latest episode

Aug 2026

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EN-US

About the show

The Coffee & Cap Rates Podcast delivers the latest insights on New York City’s commercial real estate market. Hosted by Ariel Property Advisors, it offers expert analysis, market trends, and timely conversations with industry leaders.

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September 9, 2026Episode 1308 min

130. Bronx CRE Mid-Year 2026: Multifamily Challenges & Development Opportunities featuring Jason M. Gold & Daniel Mahfar

In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates , Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discussed Ariel Property Advisors’ Bronx 2026 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Senior Director Jason M. Gold and Director Daniel Mahfar. Topics included the current state of the Bronx real estate market, with a specific focus on multifamily housing and development. Multifamily Housing Market : In the first half of the year, dollar volume for multifamily transactions in the Bronx was approximately $350 million, a 36% decrease compared to the same period last year. Market activity is driven in part by lenders and borrowers navigating loan maturities and short sales. The market is characterized by older housing stock that is predominantly rent-stabilized where the average price per unit fell to $69,000. Cap rates on these assets are nearing 9%, and GRM is approximately 5.4%. Projections for the second half of the year suggest these metrics will decline further, with GRM possibly reaching four times and price per door averaging between $50,000 and $60,000. Development Market : Development has been a bright spot in the Bronx, showing a 14% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter increase in dollar volume. While transaction volume was slightly down, there is high demand for development sites of various sizes, often resulting in double-digit competing offers. The average price per buildable square foot on an "as of right" basis is trending toward $110, which is the highest in the market's history. Developers are actively looking to leverage the "City of Yes" initiative, which influences valuations for sites with additional air rights. Major upcoming projects, such as the Ferry Point casino, are expected to contribute significantly to the area. Future Outlook : Participants expressed optimism for the next six months, anticipating increased investor confidence as the current administration's policies become clearer. It is expected that transaction volume will be slightly higher, while dollar volume is projected to remain relatively stable. Development is expected to remain a popular and competitive investment area in the borough. More information about the Bronx market is available here: Ariel Property Advisors’ Bronx 2026 Mid-Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report

September 2, 2026Episode 12914 min

129. Manhattan CRE Mid-Year 2026: What’s Driving Investment Across NYC’s Market featuring Michael A. Tortorici, Chris Brodhead, & Howard Raber

In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates , Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discussed Ariel’s Manhattan 2026 Mid- Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report with Founding Partner Michael A. Tortorici, Senior Director Christoffer Brodhead, and Director Howard Raber. The speakers noted a 50% increase in dollar volume to $9.87 billion compared to the first half of 2025. The conversation covered several key asset classes: Office Market : The market shows three primary trends, including strong performance for Class A buildings and ongoing repositioning for Class B and C buildings, some of which are being converted to residential use. Development : There was a 54% year-over-year increase in development volume to $1.7 billion. Developers are leveraging initiatives like "City of Yes," tax incentives for office-to-residential conversions (467m program), and the Midtown South mixed-use plan to find opportunities. Currently, 16,000 units are in the pipeline for office-to-residential conversions. Multifamily : Investment activity grew significantly, with dollar volume rising 93% year-over-year to $2.34 billion across 109 transactions. Institutional investors have returned to Manhattan's predominantly free-market sector. While values remain below the 2017 peak, there has been growth compared to 2025 and 2024. Retail : High Street retail is experiencing a recovery, with rents in prime areas like Soho meeting or exceeding pre-2020 highs. There is renewed enthusiasm from institutional capital and high-net-worth families for retail assets that offer long-term, mark-to-market opportunities. The speakers concluded by expressing optimism for an active, productive second half of the year. Additional market insights are available in Ariel’s Manhattan 2026 Mid- Year Commercial Real Estate Trends report .

August 26, 2026Episode 12839 min

128. NYC Commercial Real Estate: Industry Experts Discuss Challenges, Opportunities & the 2026 Outlook

In this special episode of Coffee & Cap Rates , Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, moderates a panel discussion recorded at Ariel Property Advisors’ Separating Signal from Noise: NYC Investment Sales in 1H 2026 event on July 30, 2026. The panel features Ralph Bumbaca , Regional President, Metro NY at TD Bank; Robert S. Nelson , President of Nelson Management Group LTD.; and Bryan Kelly , Principal & President of Development at Gotham Organization. The panelists discuss the challenges and opportunities shaping New York City’s commercial real estate market, including rising operating costs, insurance, legal and regulatory challenges, development complexities, financing conditions, and the outlook for the market. Watch the full panel discussion on YouTube .

August 19, 2026Episode 12713 min

127. NYC Investment Sales 1H 2026: Following the Capital, Not the Noise with Shimon Shkury

Shimon Shkury , President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, shares his outlook on New York City’s investment sales market in the first half of 2026 in this special episode of Coffee & Cap Rates , recorded at Ariel Property Advisors’ Separating Signal from Noise: NYC Investment Sales in 1H 2026 event on July 30, 2026. Shimon examines where capital is investing across NYC’s multifamily, office, development, affordable housing, and retail markets, highlighting the role of reset valuations, fundamentals, policy alignment, and distress in shaping investment activity. Watch the full presentation on YouTube .

August 12, 2026Episode 12612 min

126. NYC Multifamily Q2 2026: Market Growth, Financing & the Outlook for 2H 2026 featuring Victor Sozio & Matt Swerdlow

In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates , Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, discussed Ariel Property Advisors’ Q2 2026 Multifamily Quarter in Review with Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director in Capital Services. The trio discussed the performance of the multifamily real estate market during the second quarter of 2022, including: Market Growth: The multifamily market totaled nearly $2.5 billion. Asset Class Performance: Free Market: This segment saw continued rent growth and strong investor competition. Manhattan and Brooklyn remain attractive for these types of assets. Rent Stabilized: This market faces significant struggles, with low trading volumes in outer boroughs like the Bronx, Queens, and Northern Manhattan. Factors contributing to this include a 0% rent increase, elevated interest rates and concerns regarding regulatory risks. Affordable Housing: Project-based Section 8 housing remains a premier asset class due to federal subsidies and stability. It represents about 10% of the overall transaction volume. Financing and Debt: For rent-stabilized assets, borrowers facing maturity are advised to engage lenders early to discuss potential modifications or extensions, as property values have changed significantly. Refinancing and acquisition financing remain available through agencies like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and CMBS, with some deals achieving 70–75% loan-to-value ratios. Future Outlook: The speakers anticipate an active second half of the year, with a strong contract pipeline pointing toward sustained or increased transaction volume in the third and fourth quarters. Despite the challenges in the rent-stabilized sector, there is notable seller motivation to transact if debt-related issues can be resolved. Access the full report here .

May 12, 2026Episode 12530 min

125. NYC Multifamily at a Crossroads | Kenny Burgos on Rent Stabilization, HSTPA & Housing Policy

In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury sits down with Kenny Burgos, CEO of the New York Apartment Association, to discuss the current state of New York City’s multifamily housing market and the growing challenges facing the rent-stabilized sector. The conversation takes a deep dive into the long-term effects of the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act (HSTPA), including vacancy control, rising operating costs, capital constraints, declining valuations, and affordability pressures across the city’s housing stock. Together, they explore how policy changes, economic vacancy, and structural market constraints are reshaping investment activity, asset performance, and financing conditions for rent-stabilized housing in New York City — and what it may take to restore long-term stability and investment viability.

April 28, 2026Episode 12411 min

124. NYC Multifamily Q1 2026: Free Market Strength, Rent-Stabilized Pressure & Lending Liquidity featuring Victor Sozio & Matthew Dzbanek

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors; Victor Sozio, Founding Partner; and Matthew Dzbanek, Senior Director in the Capital Services Group, take a deep dive into New York City’s multifamily market on this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates. They discuss key trends from Ariel Property Advisors’ Q1 2026 Multifamily Quarter in Review New York City , and what to expect for the remainder of the year. Highlights from the podcast include: The NYC multifamily market recorded approximately $2.4 billion in transaction volume in Q1 2026, up 7% year-over-year, reflecting sustained investor activity despite a bifurcated market. Free market assets continued to drive momentum, supported by rising rents and strong investor demand, while rent-stabilized properties faced ongoing pressure from expenses, regulatory constraints, and NOI erosion. The rent-stabilized segment saw notable activity, including distressed transactions, as owners and lenders increasingly worked toward restructurings and pragmatic solutions. Affordable housing remained steady, with private capital increasingly stepping into existing structures and sophisticated investors targeting long-term value opportunities. Lending activity remained active for well-located free market assets, while capital availability for stabilized assets remained more selective, with lenders focused on collections, violations, and overall asset quality. Construction and development financing continued to attract strong interest, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics and growing appetite for new rental and condo projects. Overall, liquidity and investor engagement are expected to remain strong as both buyers and lenders continue to meet the market in 2026. Access the full report here: https://arielpa.com/report/report-MFQIR-Q1-2026#overview

March 13, 2026Episode 12310 min

123. Bronx CRE 2025: Rising Development & Multifamily Opportunities featuring Jason M. Gold & Daniel Mahfar

In the latest Coffee & Cap Rates podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Jason Gold, Senior Director, and Daniel Mahfar, Director, discuss multifamily and development market trends in the Bronx as reported in Ariel’s Bronx 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report . Highlights from the podcast and report include: The Bronx real estate market reached $1.8 billion in 2025, a 46% year-over-year increase, with multifamily dollar volume rising 66% and development up 26%. The average price per unit for multifamily units hit a 7-year low of $105,000, influenced by high interest rates, increased expenses, including insurance and taxes, and anticipated rent freezes for stabilized buildings. Multifamily pricing is expected to remain at a decade-plus low, attracting local owners seeking a low basis relative to the rest of the country. Development activity is forecast to continue an upward trend due to investors’ increased familiarity with the 485x tax abatement and "City of Yes" regulations.

March 9, 2026Episode 12214 min

122. Manhattan CRE 2025: Investment Sales, Development Momentum & Market Outlook featuring Michael A. Tortorici, Christoffer Brodhead & Howard Raber

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors; Michael A. Tortorici, Founding Partner; Christoffer Brodhead, Senior Director; and Howard Raber, Director, take a deep dive into Manhattan’s investment sales market on this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates. They discussed trends in Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report and what to expect in 2026. Highlights from the podcast include: Manhattan’s transactional dollar volume reached $22.77 billion in 2025, signaling strong investor confidence and positive growth trends across development, multifamily and office sectors. Driven by limited inventory and a high-performing condo market, development site sales totaled nearly $4 billion with pricing jumping 11% to $468 per buildable square foot—the highest level recorded since 2021. Accounting for 50% of Manhattan’s total dollar volume ($11.3 billion), the office market was fueled by high-value Class A transactions and a growing trend of Class B and C assets being repositioned for residential or boutique office use. Investors showed a clear preference for free market multifamily properties, which represented 84% of total multifamily dollar volume, as investors looked to capitalize on free market assets currently trading 18% below their 2017 peaks.

February 24, 2026Episode 12113 min

121. Brooklyn CRE 2025: Sales Trends, Development Growth & Market Insights featuring Sean R. Kelly & Stephen Vorvolakos

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Sean R. Kelly, Esq., Partner, and Stephen Vorvolakos, Director, discuss trends in Brooklyn’s commercial real estate market and the findings of Ariel Property Advisors’ Brooklyn 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report . Highlights from the report include: Brooklyn closed 2025 with $6.66 billion in total commercial real estate sales across 951 transactions, reflecting an 8% decline in dollar volume and 2% increase in transactions compared to 2024. The development market rallied in 2025 with 172 transactions totaling $1.8 billion, an increase of 25% and 41%, respectively, compared to 2024. Multifamily dollar volume dipped 3% year over year to $3.47 billion while transactions rose 7% to 582. Brooklyn retail saw 76 transactions totaling $523 million, representing decreases of 10% and 17%, respectively, compared to 2024. Boroughwide, transaction activity was largely driven by smaller, mom-and-pop retail sales.